科技行业 | 行业追踪 MWC 2024 回顾：5G-A 加速到来， 沈岱 首席科技分析师 浦 tony_shen@spdbi.com 银 AI 持续赋能万物互联 (852) 2808 6435 国 际 黄佳琦 科技分析师 当地时间2024年2月26日至2月29日，世界移动通信大会（MWC， sia_huang@spdbi.com (852) 2809 0355 Mobile World Congress）在西班牙巴塞罗那举办。 MWC 2024 速览：首先，从商业维度看：1）华为作为打通 B端通信以及C 2024年3月4日 行 端终端的行业龙头，持续推动 5G-A 技术落地以及消费业务的恢复。2）中 业 国企业在C端具备强大实力，包括三大中国运营商以及中国智能手机品牌。 追 3）通信芯片，或者包括通信功能的 SoC（System on Chip），还是由海外巨 踪 头主导。其次，从技术维度看，5G-A、WiFi 7、AI大语言模型（包括 AI PC、 AI手机）等是本届 MWC的重中之重。在 2024年科技展望中，我们判断AI 端应用，包括在智能手机、笔记本电脑，都有望带动行业需求从底部回暖。 与 2024 ...

浦银国际研究 公司研究 | 互联网行业 浦银国际 公司研究 HKD 186 HKD 176 HKD 249 HKD 207 SPDBI 目标价 目前价 市场预期区间 网易 网易（9999.HK/NTES.US）：《蛋仔派对》 取得阶段性胜利，游戏储备进入新周期 业绩整体弱于市场预期：公司 4Q23 收入人民币 271 亿元，同比增长 7.0%，低于市场预期 3.7%；毛利率同比提升 9.8pp 至 62.0%，主要受 益于自研游戏及渠道收入占比的提升；调整后净利润为 74 亿元，同比 增长 53.4%，低于市场预期 7.1%，主要受营销费用上升影响；调整后 净利率为 27.2%。 手游延续强劲增长势头，《蛋仔派对》守住领先地位。公司 4Q23 游戏 收入为 195 亿元，同比增长 11.5%，其中手游收入同比增长 29%，延 续强劲势头，主要受《逆水寒》、《巅峰极速》、《全明星街球派对》等 新游戏产品推动。随着腾讯推出《元梦之星》，派对游戏赛道迎来激烈 竞争，导致网易营销投入有所加大，4Q23 销售费用率同比上升 2.1pp。 在此次竞争中，《蛋仔派对》取得阶段性胜利，领先地位稳固，累计注 册用户已超过 5 ...

Investment Rating - Reiterates "Buy" rating for BYD Electronics with a target price of HKD 36.7, implying a potential upside of 24% [1][2][4] Core Views - BYD Electronics is expected to achieve net profit growth of 19% and 17% YoY in 2024 and 2025, driven by strong growth in automotive electronics and incremental profit contributions from the Jabil acquisition [2] - Automotive electronics is becoming a key profit driver, expected to contribute over 30% of gross profit by 2025 [2] - AI servers are expected to start contributing revenue in 2024, further supporting long-term growth [2] - The acquisition of Jabil's assets is expected to contribute RMB 300-500 million in consolidated profit in 2024, with further cost reductions and operational improvements anticipated [2] Financial Forecasts - Revenue for 2024E and 2025E is projected at RMB 169.7 billion and RMB 180.4 billion, respectively, with slight downward revisions of 2% and 4% from previous forecasts [8][12] - Net profit for 2024E and 2025E is forecasted at RMB 4.65 billion and RMB 5.45 billion, with a 2% upward revision for 2024E and a 17% downward revision for 2025E [10][12] - Gross margin for 2024E and 2025E is expected to be 8.6% and 8.9%, respectively, reflecting a slight decline from previous estimates [11][12] Valuation - The target price of HKD 36.7 is derived using a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation method, assigning target P/E multiples of 10x, 15x, 8x, 10x, 10x, and 35x to international client assembly, international client components, Android assembly, Android components, new smart products, and automotive smart systems, respectively [14] - The automotive smart systems segment is valued at a higher multiple of 35x due to its strong growth potential [14] Business Segments - Automotive electronics is expected to maintain high growth, with stable gross margins supporting its increasing contribution to overall profitability [2] - AI servers, in partnership with NVIDIA, are anticipated to start generating revenue in 2024, adding to the company's growth drivers [2] - The Jabil acquisition is expected to enhance automation and reduce operational costs, improving overall business performance [2]

Investment Rating - Maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of $60 for US shares and HK$47 for Hong Kong shares [1][3][4] Core Views - Zai Lab's 4Q23 revenue of $65.83 million met expectations, with net loss of $95.43 million slightly exceeding forecasts due to higher R&D and SG&A expenses [1] - A major driver for future growth is the strong performance of Efgartigimod, which achieved $5.07 million in sales in 4Q23, a 3.7% QoQ increase, despite reimbursement impacts [1] - The company expects Efgartigimod sales to exceed $70 million in 2024, a 40% increase from previous estimates, driven by expanded hospital coverage and new indications [1] - Zai Lab anticipates a revenue CAGR of over 50% from 2023 to 2028, supported by the approval of subcutaneous formulations for Efgartigimod in 2024 and 2025 [1] Financial Performance and Forecasts - 4Q23 gross margin was 61.7%, down 1.5 percentage points QoQ, primarily due to higher production costs for Efgartigimod [1] - Revenue forecasts for 2024E and 2025E were raised by 7.5% and 3.1%, respectively, driven by higher expectations for Efgartigimod and upcoming drug approvals [1] - Net loss for 2024E and 2025E increased by 29% and 15%, respectively, due to updated financial assumptions [1] - Revenue is projected to grow from $390 million in 2024E to $983 million in 2026E, with a CAGR of 52.5% from 2024E to 2026E [6] Key Catalysts for 2024 - Three drugs expected to gain approval: SUL-DUR, Efgartigimod subcutaneous (gMG indication), and Rotrectinib (ROS1+NSCLC) [1] - Four drugs to submit China NDA applications: Efgartigimod subcutaneous (CIDP indication), Adagrasib (second-line NSCLC), TIVDAK (second-line cervical cancer), and Optune (second-line NSCLC) [1] - Partner-related FDA reviews include tumor-treating fields for NSCLC (2H24), KarXT for schizophrenia (Sep 2024), and Efgartigimod for CIDP (Jun 2024) [1] - Key clinical data readouts include Optune for NSCLC brain metastasis (1Q24) and pancreatic cancer (4Q24), as well as Adagrasib for NSCLC (2H24) [1] Valuation and Market Data - Zai Lab's US shares currently trade at $20.8, with a 52-week range of $17.7-$41.8 and a market cap of $2.06 billion [3] - Hong Kong shares trade at HK$17.4, with a 52-week range of HK$14.1-HK$32.8 and a market cap of HK$17.22 billion [4] - The target price implies a potential upside of 188% for US shares and 170% for Hong Kong shares [3][4] Industry Context - Zai Lab is part of the biotech sector, with peers such as Hutchmed, BeiGene, and Innovent Biologics also receiving "Buy" ratings from SPDB International [12]

浦银国际研究 公司研究 | 医药行业 和黄医药（HCM.US/13.HK）：呋喹替尼销售 阳景 超预期，海外首发成绩亮眼 浦 首席医药分析师 银 Jing_yang@spdbi.com 国 和黄医药2023全年业绩超预期，主要由呋喹替尼销售好于预期驱动， (852) 2808 6434 际 反映了公司强大的商业化能力，我们认为 2024 年肿瘤收入指引（3- 4 亿美元）可实现性高。此外，公司国际化进程再进一步，赛沃替尼 胡泽宇 CFA 年底将于美国申报二线非小细胞肺癌，有望成为公司第二个海外获 医药分析师 批药物。随着现有药物加速商业化的进程，我们相信公司正在稳步实 ryan_hu@spdbi.com 现盈利的轨道上。维持“买入”评级，目标价为 25美元/39 港元。 (852) 2808 6446 2023 全年业绩超预期，2024 年肿瘤收入指引 3-4 亿美元：2023 年  公司全年总收入达到 8.38 亿美元（+97% YoY），其中肿瘤业务实现收 2024年2月29日 公 入 5.29 亿美元（+223% YoY，包括 2.8 亿美元武田首付款），强于我 司 们的预期，亦高过公司之前给的中位数 ...

浦银国际研究 财务模型更新 | 互联网行业 唯品会（VIPS.US）：季节性需求推动 赵丹 浦 业绩超预期，预计 FY24 平稳增长 首席互联网分析师 银 dan_zhao@spdbi.com 国 (852) 2808 6436 际 季节性需求推动公司4Q23业绩优于预期。考虑到宏观环境及行业竞 杨子超，CFA 争，预计 2024 年增长保持平缓。因降本增效优于预期，上调盈利预 互联网分析师 测，并上调目标价至 20 美元，当前估值相较同业未具吸引力，维持 charles_yang@spdbi.com “持有”评级。 (852) 2808 6409 财 务 2024年2月29日 强劲季节性需求推动业绩超预期。公司 4Q23 收入人民币 347 亿元， 模 型 同比增长 9.2%，高于市场预期 4.5%，优于先前指引（318 亿-333 亿 评级 更 元），主要是因天气寒冷，服装品类增长强劲；4Q23 GMV 为 664 亿 新 元，同比增长 21.9%，订单量同比增长 7.2%，活跃买家数同比增长 目标价（美元） 20 2.3%，其中 SVIP 会员数同比增长 14%，贡献约45%的GMV。 潜在升幅/降幅 ...

Investment Rating - Maintains a "Buy" rating with target prices of $275 (US), HK$165 (HK), and RMB 175 (CH) [1] Core Views - The US has surpassed China as the largest contributor to product revenue, driven by strong growth of Zanubrutinib in 4Q23 [1] - Cost control measures are showing initial results, with operational efficiency expected to improve further in 2024 [1] - The company is on track to achieve profitability, supported by faster-than-expected internationalization [1] Revenue and Growth - 4Q23 US revenue reached $310 million, a 101.5% YoY increase, with product sales growing 150% YoY [1] - US product sales surpassed China for the first time, with China's 4Q23 product sales at $267 million [1] - US revenue accounted for 49.4% of total revenue in 4Q23 and 45.9% for the full year 2023, up 8.5 and 10.4 percentage points YoY, respectively [1] - Full-year 2023 product sales increased by 74.5% YoY, while operating expenses grew only 12.5% [1] Operational Efficiency - Operating expenses grew at 1/6th the rate of product sales in 2023, compared to 1/5th in 2022, indicating improved efficiency [1] - R&D expenses are expected to rise slightly in 2024, while sales and administrative expenses will increase moderately [1] - The company plans to maintain a lean commercial team for PD-1 overseas, keeping operating expenses under control [1] 2024 Catalysts - Zanubrutinib's market expansion in the US, including the anticipated approval of the FL indication in March 2024 [1] - Potential approvals for Tislelizumab in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (US) and non-small cell lung cancer (Europe) [1] - Data readouts for Sonrotoclax (BCL-2) in MM, MDS, and AML, as well as BTK CDAC in refractory MCL and CLL [1] - Phase II data for Tislelizumab combinations with OX40, HPK1, LAG3, and TIM3 in various cancers [1] Valuation and Financials - 2024 and 2025 net loss forecasts narrowed by 0.5% and 16.5%, respectively, reflecting improved operational efficiency [1] - DCF valuation assumes a WACC of 8.1% and a perpetual growth rate of 3.0%, resulting in a market cap of $28.7 billion [1] - Revenue is projected to grow from $3.09 billion in 2024 to $4.43 billion in 2026, with a net profit of $103 million expected in 2026 [5] Market Performance - Current stock prices: $160.3 (US), HK$99.1 (HK), and RMB 125.0 (CH) [2][3][4] - Potential upside: +72% (US), +66% (HK), and +40% (CH) [2][3][4] - 52-week price ranges: $133.0-$272.5 (US), HK$82.7-HK$167.3 (HK), and RMB 98.5-RMB 170.5 (CH) [2][3][4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Li Auto (LI.US) and raises the target price to $53.5, indicating a potential upside of 29% [1][12][14] - The target price for Li Auto-W (2015.HK) is raised to HKD 210.3, with a potential upside of 20% [1][12][14] Core Insights - Li Auto achieved significant profit improvement in Q4 2023, turning profitable for the full year, with a projected sales target of 650,000 to 800,000 vehicles in 2024 [1][7] - The company expects to deliver 66,100 vehicles in 2024, representing a 76% year-over-year increase, driven by new model launches and increased production capacity [1][8] - Li Auto's financial health is strong, with Q4 2023 revenue of RMB 41.73 billion, a 136% year-over-year increase, and a cash reserve of RMB 103.67 billion to support ongoing R&D and business expansion [1][7][10] Financial Performance - Q4 2023 revenue was RMB 41.73 billion, with a gross margin of 23.5%, up 3.2 percentage points year-over-year [7][10] - The company reported a net profit of RMB 5.66 billion in Q4 2023, a significant increase compared to the previous year [7][10] - For 2024, revenue is projected to reach RMB 208.83 billion, with a net profit of RMB 16.73 billion, reflecting a 47% increase from previous estimates [12][13] Delivery and Production Guidance - In Q1 2024, Li Auto expects to deliver between 100,000 and 103,000 vehicles, with a target to exceed 50,000 monthly deliveries by March [8][9] - The company plans to expand its retail network to over 800 centers by the end of 2024, covering approximately 170 cities [9] Product and Market Strategy - 2024 is positioned as a significant product year for Li Auto, with multiple new models set to launch, including the MEGA and updated versions of existing models [9] - The company aims to enhance its charging network, targeting over 2,000 supercharging stations by the end of 2024 [9]

浦银国际研究 公司研究 | 科技行业 传音控股（688036.CH）：4Q23 智能 沈岱 浦 手机出货量及利润同比高成长 首席科技分析师 银 tony_shen@spdbi.com 国 (852) 2808 6435 际 重申传音控股的“买入”评级，上调目标价至人民币 179.4元，潜在 黄佳琦 升幅 16.7%。 科技分析师 重申传音控股“买入”评级：展望 2024 年，我们认为传音有望取 sia_huang@spdbi.com  得比较稳定且确定的增长。传音的基本面增长主要来自：1）得益 (852) 2809 0355 于美国利率有望下调，非洲等新兴地区智能手机需求有望复苏，从 2024年2月26日 而带动传音的手机基本盘复苏向上。2）传音积极开拓东南亚、拉 美等当前市场份额较小的智能手机区域，力争实现自身智能手机出 评级 公 货量增速高于全球智能手机市场增速。3）收入端的高速增长以及 司 公司经营性杠杆有望带动公司利润增长。因此，我们认为传音的基 目标价（人民币） 179.4 研 本面增长确定性和稳定性较高。同时，传音积极进行研发投入，开 潜在升幅/降幅 +16.7% 究 发 Gen-AI 智能手机 ...

浦银国际研究 公司研究 | 医药行业 和黄医药（HCM.US/13.HK）：小分子靶向药 阳景 先行者，Syk 抑制剂有望年内获批 浦 首席医药分析师 银 Jing_yang@spdbi.com 国 首席医药分析师阳景恢复覆盖和黄医药（HCM.US/13.HK），维持“买 (852) 2808 6434 际 入”评级，目标价为 25美元/39 港元。公司在医药行业深耕 20余年， 目前已建立起一体化的新药研发和商业化平台。我们认为，随着呋喹 胡泽宇 CFA 替尼海外放量及新的创新药如索乐匹尼布的获批，公司发展有望再 医药分析师 上新台阶。 ryan_hu@spdbi.com 索乐匹尼布最快有望于年内获批：2024 年 1 月 11 日，公司宣布中 (852) 2808 6446  国药监局已受理索乐匹尼布（Syk抑制剂）用于治疗二线免疫性血小 板减少症（ITP）的上市申请并予以优先审评，我们预计索乐匹尼布 2024年2月23日 公 最快有望于 2024 年获批。我们预计该项适应症可贡献约人民币6 亿 司 元销售峰值。根据我们与公司的沟通，和黄医药将于年内逐步建设 和黄医药 研 ...