小金属 洛阳钼业（603993.SH） 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2025 年 10 月 30 日 相关报告 1、《铜产量超预期，公司管理精益 求精》2025-04-03 2024-10-31 报告摘要 股价与行业-市场走势对比 事件：公司发布 2025 年三季报，2025 年前三季度实现营业收入 1454.85 亿元，同比 -6.0%；实现归母净利润 142.8 亿元，同比+72.6%；扣非净利润 145.37 亿元，同比 +70%。其中 25Q3 单季度实现营业收入 507.13 亿元，同比-2.36%，环比+3.99%； 实现归母净利润 56.08 亿元，同比+96.4%，环比+18.69%；实现扣非净利润 58.13 亿元，同比+98.6%，环比+21.21%。业绩超预期，主要由于主要产品价格同比上升， 叠加铜产品产销量同比实现增长，实现利润同比上升。 铜钴板块量价齐增 | 评级： 买入（维持） | 公司盈利预测及估值 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | | | 2024A | 2025E ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company's performance is improving, with a focus on wealth management continuing to drive growth [5][6] - Revenue for Q3 2025 showed a year-on-year decline of 0.7%, which is an improvement from a 1.9% decline in the first half of 2025 [5] - Net profit for Q3 2025 increased by 0.5% year-on-year, maintaining a slight upward trend [5] - Net interest income grew by 1.7% year-on-year, indicating a stable growth trajectory [5] - Non-interest income decreased by 4.8% year-on-year, but the decline is narrowing, with fee income turning positive at 0.9% [5] - The bank's asset quality remains stable, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 0.94%, slightly up from the previous quarter [6] Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profit Forecasts**: - Revenue (in million yuan): 2023A: 332,881; 2024A: 330,404; 2025E: 330,292; 2026E: 332,348; 2027E: 337,351 [1] - Net profit (in million yuan): 2023A: 146,602; 2024A: 148,391; 2025E: 150,857; 2026E: 154,563; 2027E: 156,111 [1] - Earnings per share (in yuan): 2023A: 5.75; 2024A: 5.82; 2025E: 5.98; 2026E: 6.13; 2027E: 6.19 [1] - **Return on Equity (ROE)**: - 2023A: 16.75%; 2024A: 15.05%; 2025E: 13.98%; 2026E: 13.28%; 2027E: 12.27% [1] - **Valuation Ratios**: - Price-to-Earnings (P/E): 2023A: 7.09; 2024A: 7.01; 2025E: 6.82; 2026E: 6.65; 2027E: 6.59 [1] - Price-to-Book (P/B): 2023A: 1.11; 2024A: 0.98; 2025E: 0.92; 2026E: 0.85; 2027E: 0.77 [1] Asset Quality and Loan Growth - The bank's asset quality is stable, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 0.94%, which is slightly up from the previous quarter [6] - The loan growth rate for corporate loans is strong at 14.2%, while retail loans grew by 3.4% [5][20] - The bank's total loans increased by 5.2% year-on-year, with bond investments growing by 19.1% [5] Wealth Management and Fee Income - Wealth management fees increased by 18.7% year-on-year, indicating a strong performance in this segment [5] - The overall non-interest income decreased by 4.8% year-on-year, but the decline is narrowing, with fee income showing positive growth [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative performance increase of over 15% against the benchmark index in the next 6 to 12 months [5][10]. Core Views - The company has exceeded profit expectations in Q3 due to a rebound in coal prices and an increase in electricity generation [1][6]. - The report highlights a significant growth in electricity sales in Q3, with a year-on-year increase of 13.53% [7]. - Non-recurring gains have notably increased, contributing positively to the company's profits [7]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenue of 118.08 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.81%, and a net profit of 12.71 billion yuan, down 27.22% [7]. - In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 40.10 billion yuan, a decline of 20.91% year-on-year, with a net profit of 5.08 billion yuan, down 26.59% [7]. - Coal production for the first three quarters was 130 million tons, an increase of 2.03% year-on-year, while coal sales reached 189 million tons, up 0.40% [7]. - The average selling price of coal in Q3 was 741 yuan per ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.10% [7]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to generate revenues of 151.85 billion yuan, 155.07 billion yuan, and 159.74 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [5][8]. - Expected net profits for the same years are 17.25 billion yuan, 18.63 billion yuan, and 20.24 billion yuan, respectively [5][8]. - The current stock price of 22.52 yuan corresponds to a P/E ratio of 12.7X for 2025, 11.7X for 2026, and 10.8X for 2027 [5][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative performance increase of 15% or more against the benchmark index over the next 6 to 12 months [3][11]. Core Views - The company has demonstrated steady revenue growth, achieving a revenue of 5,310 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.75%. The net profit attributable to the parent company reached 895 million yuan, up 20.70% year-on-year [5]. - The report highlights the company's strong positioning in the automotive and robotics sectors, with significant advancements in production capabilities and market expansion, particularly in North America and Europe [8]. - The company is expected to maintain robust growth in revenue and profit, with projected revenues of 7,962 million yuan, 10,353 million yuan, and 12,099 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 18%, 30%, and 17% [3][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 5,310 million yuan, with a gross margin of 30.42%, an increase of 1.37 percentage points year-on-year. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 895 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 20.70% [5]. - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1,860 million yuan, with a gross margin of 32.59%, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.84 percentage points [5][6]. Market Positioning - The company has expanded its global customer base, particularly in North America and Europe, benefiting from local production capabilities established in Mexico and Malaysia. This strategic positioning has enhanced its competitiveness and reduced logistics costs [7][8]. - The report emphasizes the company's ability to leverage its automotive lightweighting capabilities in the robotics sector, potentially allowing it to capture significant market share in the robotics supply chain [8]. Profitability and Valuation - The company's profitability is expected to improve, with projected net profits of 1,204 million yuan, 1,501 million yuan, and 1,740 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, indicating year-on-year growth rates of 28%, 25%, and 16% [3][8]. - The report maintains the company's valuation metrics, with a projected P/E ratio of 19.4 for 2025, decreasing to 13.4 by 2027, reflecting an attractive investment opportunity [3][8].

Group 1 - The report highlights the increased policy confidence and strategic initiative reflected in the "15th Five-Year Plan" which emphasizes the dual drive of technology and consumption for industrial restructuring [2][10] - The document states that the "15th Five-Year Plan" period is crucial for achieving socialist modernization, indicating a shift from a risk-averse approach to a more proactive strategy in policy-making [10][11] - The plan outlines specific directions for industrial restructuring, focusing on revitalizing manufacturing and enhancing the security of industrial chains, with an emphasis on upgrading key industries such as mining, metallurgy, and chemicals [10][11] Group 2 - Technology innovation is established as a core pillar for the "15th Five-Year Plan," with initiatives aimed at promoting industrial innovation and developing strategic emerging industries like new energy and aerospace [10][11] - The report emphasizes a shift in consumption policy towards a more operational and structural approach, focusing on enhancing consumer capacity and willingness through social security improvements and targeted subsidies [11][12] - The document suggests that the upcoming U.S.-China summit may boost market sentiment, with investment opportunities identified in AI applications, anti-involution themes, and brokerage sectors [14]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [3][10] Core Views - The company is expected to experience a fundamental turning point with accelerated new product launches, expansion into export markets, and a transition towards intelligent driving technology [8][10] - The company reported a revenue of 153.58 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 8.0%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 8.64 billion yuan, down 17.2% year-on-year [5][10] - The company achieved a Q3 revenue of 61.25 billion yuan, up 20.5% year-on-year and 17.1% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 2.30 billion yuan, down 31.4% year-on-year and 49.9% quarter-on-quarter [7][10] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2023A, the company is projected to have a revenue of 173.21 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 26% year-on-year. By 2027E, revenue is expected to reach 362.20 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 21% [3][10] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 7.02 billion yuan for 2023A, increasing to 19.36 billion yuan by 2027E, with a growth rate of 16% [3][10] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from 0.83 yuan in 2023A to 2.26 yuan in 2027E [3][10] Sales and Market Expansion - The company sold 923,000 vehicles in the first three quarters of 2025, with 334,000 units sold overseas [5][10] - In Q3 2025, the company sold 353,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 20.2%, including 118,000 new energy vehicles [7][10] - The company is focusing on new models from its Tank and Wey brands, with significant sales contributions expected from these new launches [6][9] Future Outlook - The company plans to launch multiple new models across its four major brands in Q4 2025, which is anticipated to drive sales growth [9][10] - The expansion into non-Russian markets such as Latin America, the Middle East, and ASEAN is showing positive results, with a 25.4% increase in sales in these regions [9][10] - The company is also advancing its intelligent driving technology, with new models expected to enhance its market position [9][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company has shown steady revenue and profit growth, with significant progress in its robotics and liquid cooling segments [3][10] - The company is expected to continue its strong growth trajectory, particularly in the new energy vehicle sector and its overseas expansion efforts [7][11] - The financial forecasts indicate a robust increase in revenue and net profit over the next few years, with projected revenues of 15,409 million in 2025 and 21,898 million in 2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 21% and 19% respectively [4][10] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 11,057 million, a year-on-year increase of 20.12%, and a net profit of 672 million, up 11.18% year-on-year [6] - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 19.30%, with a slight recovery in the third quarter to 19.39% [7] - The company has improved its cost control, with sales, management, R&D, and financial expense ratios showing positive trends [8] Growth Drivers - The company is expanding its product offerings in the liquid cooling sector, targeting data centers, energy storage, and electric vehicle charging [10] - The robotics segment has developed a comprehensive product system, enhancing collaboration with key clients and establishing a joint venture to focus on advanced robotic technologies [11] Valuation Metrics - The projected P/E ratio is expected to decrease from 50.4 in 2023 to 17.9 by 2027, indicating an improving valuation as earnings grow [4] - The net asset return is forecasted to rise from 10% in 2023 to 15% by 2027, reflecting enhanced profitability [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative performance increase of over 15% against the benchmark index in the next 6 to 12 months [4][10]. Core Views - The company's cashmere business is experiencing robust growth, and its production capacity is gradually being released, which is expected to enhance delivery capabilities [4]. - The report highlights a significant rebound in wool prices, with the Australian wool market index increasing by nearly 30% since July, suggesting a potential improvement in profitability starting from Q4 2025 [7]. - The company is positioned as a global leader in fine wool spinning, with steady growth in its wool business and a promising second growth curve in its cashmere segment [7]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 3.894 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 377 million yuan, up 1.98% year-on-year [7]. - In Q3 2025, the company reported a revenue of 1.34 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.9%, and a net profit of 107 million yuan, up 2.76% year-on-year [7]. - The gross margin for the first three quarters improved by 0.86 percentage points to 20.24%, while the net profit margin increased by 0.32 percentage points to 10.43% [7]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company forecasts revenues of 4.841 billion yuan for 2024, 4.982 billion yuan for 2025, and 5.431 billion yuan for 2026, with growth rates of 9% and 3% for 2024 and 2025 respectively [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 428 million yuan in 2024, 451 million yuan in 2025, and 504 million yuan in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 6% and 5% for 2024 and 2025 respectively [4]. Capacity Expansion and Delivery Improvement - The company is gradually releasing new production capacity, including a 50,000 spindle high-end ecological yarn project in Vietnam and a 20,000 spindle high-quality wool yarn project in Yinchuan, which are expected to enhance order acquisition and customer expansion [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][8] Core Insights - The company has shown strong revenue growth, with a projected increase in operating income from 3,499 million in 2023 to 5,580 million by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 11% [2] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to rise significantly from 73 million in 2023 to 483 million by 2027, indicating a robust recovery and growth trajectory [2] - The company has successfully optimized its channel structure, with new retail channels contributing to a 40% year-on-year growth in revenue from innovative channels [5] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from 3,835 million in 2024 to 5,580 million in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 10%, 16%, 13%, and 11% respectively [2][6] - The net profit is expected to increase from 268 million in 2024 to 483 million in 2027, with growth rates of 31%, 19%, and 16% for the subsequent years [2][6] - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to rise from 1.58 in 2024 to 2.85 in 2027, reflecting a strong upward trend in profitability [2][6] Market Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 3.145 billion in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.73% [5] - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was reported at 28.94%, with a slight decline attributed to increased costs of imported dairy products [5] - The company has maintained a stable net profit margin of 7.03% in Q3 2025, indicating solid profitability despite cost pressures [5] Channel and Product Performance - The revenue from frozen baked goods accounted for approximately 55% of total revenue, growing nearly 10% year-on-year, driven by strong sales of new products launched in key supermarket clients [5] - Revenue from cream and sauce products saw a significant increase of about 24%, with cream products experiencing a 40% year-on-year growth [5] - The company has effectively expanded its customer base and deepened relationships with existing clients, particularly in the restaurant and new retail sectors [5]

Core Insights - The report highlights the complexity of the external economic landscape in 2026, focusing on three main issues: persistent geopolitical conflicts, political conservatism in major economies leading to trade frictions, and the complexities of monetary policy [3][4]. Geopolitical Conflicts - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Israel-Palestine situation, present structural pressures that may lead to increased volatility in the global economy [3]. - Key geopolitical risk points include the Taiwan Strait, South China Sea, and the Korean Peninsula, which contribute to a non-linear economic outlook [3]. Political Conservatism and Trade Frictions - The rise of conservative governments in major economies like the U.S. and Japan is shifting policies towards economic security and nationalism, resulting in ongoing trade policy uncertainties [3][4]. - The restructuring of global supply chains is deepening, moving towards a "China + N" model, which may impact trade dynamics significantly [3]. Monetary Policy Dynamics - The Federal Reserve is expected to continue a cautious approach to interest rate cuts, with two additional cuts anticipated in 2025 and 1-2 cuts in 2026, which may lower financing costs but also face constraints from structural inflation driven by geopolitical and trade issues [3][4]. Global Economic Growth Outlook - The global economic growth rate is projected to remain around 3%, with emerging markets being the primary growth drivers due to "de-risking" and "friend-shoring" investments [4]. - Developed economies are expected to experience moderate growth, with the U.S. economy supported by interest rate cuts and fiscal stimulus, while Japan and the EU maintain stable growth [4]. Impact on China - Specific external variables, particularly U.S. policies, are expected to impact China's trade and technology sectors, with tariffs likely to remain at a normalized level of around 30% [4][5]. - China's exports may face disruptions from both U.S. and non-U.S. markets, with potential impacts on overall export scale estimated at 3.0% under moderate scenarios and up to 10.6% in extreme cases [5]. Opportunities and Challenges for China - External pressures may accelerate China's progress towards technological self-sufficiency and high-end manufacturing [5]. - However, challenges include normalized tariffs, increased trade barriers, and the risk of de-Chinaization in global supply chains, alongside the pressures of technological restrictions [5].