Report Summary - The report focuses on the possible adjustment path of the term structure of interest-bearing bonds in 2026, analyzing local government bond issuance plans and related influencing factors [1][2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - There is currently no evidence of changes in local government bond issuance terms from the plans of individual provinces; the adjustment space for general bonds is limited, and special bonds need adjustment, but the terms of special bonds for replacing implicit debts have always been long; historically, the issuance terms were adjusted downward after local government bonds "soared" in October 2023, but the current situation is different; in terms of national debt supply, the terms of general national debt have significantly shortened, and special national debt is the key focus [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Shandong's 2026 First Batch of Local Bond Issuance Plan - On December 26, Shandong announced its first batch of local bond issuance plans for 2026, with a total of 72.381 billion yuan of special bonds to be issued on January 5, 2026, with a weighted average term of 21 years. Among them, the new special bonds are 46.772 billion yuan, and the proportions of 10Y, 15Y, and 30Y are 16.2%, 25.3%, and 48.5% respectively; the refinancing special bonds for replacing implicit debts are 25.609 billion yuan, and the proportions of 10Y, 15Y, and 30Y are 6.6%, 47.0%, and 46.4% respectively. Compared with the first quarter of 2025, the term structure is relatively similar [2] Term Structure of Local Bond Issuance Plans of Announced Provinces - As of December 30, 24 regions have announced their local bond issuance plans for the first quarter or January of 2026, with a total amount of 1.88 trillion yuan. Some regions have reduced ultra-long-term varieties in their issuance plans compared with the first quarter of 2025. Local government general bonds have a relatively stable overall issuance term and limited adjustment space, while the terms of new, implicit debt replacement, and special refinancing special bonds have significantly lengthened in the past five years and have some adjustment space [2] Factors Affecting Local Bond Issuance Terms - In 2023, the weighted average issuance term of overall government bonds decreased, with the proportion of bonds over 10Y decreasing. The local bond issuance spread is a key indicator. Since June 2021, the average issuance spread of local bonds has significantly declined, but it increased in October 2023, and the issuance terms of general and special bonds decreased. In terms of national debt supply, the terms of general national debt have significantly shortened in recent years, while special national debt is the main provider of ultra-long bonds [2][3]

2025 年债市启示录：框架的贫穷 证券研究报告/固收专题报告 2025 年 12 月 30 日 分析师：吕品 执业证书编号：S0740525060003 Email：lvpin@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740525070001 Email：yanly@zts.com.cn 分析师：游勇 执业证书编号：S0740524070004 Email：youyong@zts.com.cn Email：suht@zts.com.cn 1、《近期波动溯源，跨年行情如何演 绎？》2025-12-21 2 、《 当 下 债 市 热 点 问 题 探 讨 》 2025-12-21 跌》2025-12-16 报告摘要 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 分析师：严伶怡 2025 年过去了，但市场似乎较多人并未意识到，今年其实是比 2017 年更"难受"的一 年。从中债总全价指数看，今年虽然跌幅不及"熊市天花板"的 2017 年（-4.26%），但 市场的几个表现上看可能都"更差"。第一，2017 年存单收益率较高，不少人在年初就 开始用存单"躺平"，但 2024 年底市场对债券投资的要求都是"从交易获得收益"；第二， ...

Core Insights - The report projects a GDP growth target of around 5% for 2026, emphasizing a coordinated approach to promote consumption and expand investment to ensure a strong start to the 14th Five-Year Plan [3][4] - China's exports are expected to maintain resilience, with a projected growth of 3.4% in 2026, supported by factors such as re-export trade and the gradual impact of U.S. tariffs on global trade [3][4] - Manufacturing investment is anticipated to recover slightly from 1% in 2025 to around 2% in 2026, driven by resilient exports and continued policy support for advanced manufacturing [4] Economic Outlook - The real estate sector is expected to see a decline in sales area by approximately 5% in 2026, but the direct drag on the economy from real estate investment is expected to lessen, with a projected decline of around 11% compared to 16% in 2025 [5] - Expanding domestic demand is identified as a crucial pathway to achieve the 5% GDP growth target, with a focus on promoting consumption and investment [5][6] - Consumer sentiment is expected to recover gradually, with government support for consumption projected to remain at least at the 300 billion level seen in 2025 [5][6] Investment and Policy - Infrastructure investment is forecasted to rebound from a decline of about 1% in 2025 to an increase of 8% in 2026, supported by previously announced policies [6] - The report indicates a moderate recovery in consumer prices, with PPI expected to improve from -2.6% in 2025 to -1.2% in 2026, and CPI from 0.0% to 0.5% [6] - Fiscal policy is projected to remain supportive, with a broad deficit expected to increase from approximately 11.86 trillion to 12.45 trillion, reflecting a slight rise in the broad deficit ratio [7][8]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [3]. Core Insights - The company, Guoquan, is positioned as a leading one-stop brand for home dining products in China, focusing on providing diverse meal solutions [11]. - The market for home dining products is projected to grow significantly, with a CAGR of 22.81%, reaching a retail value of 940 billion yuan by 2027 [6][30]. - Guoquan's competitive advantages include a well-integrated supply chain, extensive community store network, and a high-engagement membership system, which are expected to drive both short-term and long-term growth [7]. Financial Projections - Revenue is forecasted to grow from 6.1 billion yuan in 2023 to 10.27 billion yuan in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 21%, 15%, and 14% respectively [3][7]. - Net profit is expected to increase from 240 million yuan in 2023 to 652 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a significant growth of 96%, 22%, and 19% in the respective years [3][7]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to rise from 0.09 yuan in 2023 to 0.25 yuan in 2027 [3]. Business Model and Market Position - Guoquan operates a unique "community central kitchen" model, which combines food manufacturing and community retail, allowing for cost efficiency and high-quality product offerings [44]. - The company has established a robust store network, with over 10,761 stores across 31 provinces as of Q3 2025, positioning it as the largest one-stop home dining product retailer in China [47]. - The company has a market share of 3.0% in the home dining product sector, leading among competitors [34]. Growth Strategies - Guoquan plans to enhance its store performance through a dual approach of upgrading existing stores and expanding into rural markets, aiming to replicate its successful business model [7][39]. - The company is actively exploring new business formats, including outdoor dining and ready-to-eat meals, to capture additional market segments [7]. - Digital transformation initiatives are underway to improve operational efficiency and enhance customer engagement through data-driven decision-making [83]. Supply Chain and Logistics - The company has invested in seven proprietary food factories to ensure quality control and cost efficiency across its product range [66]. - A comprehensive cold chain logistics system supports the timely delivery of products to stores, enhancing customer satisfaction and operational reliability [70]. Marketing and Brand Strategy - Guoquan leverages celebrity endorsements and social media marketing to strengthen its brand presence and engage with consumers [72]. - The company has implemented a tiered membership system to enhance customer loyalty and increase repeat purchases [76].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the liquid packaging machinery industry. Core Insights - The liquid packaging machinery is essential for the fast-moving consumer goods sector, particularly in food and beverage, personal care, and condiments. The industry primarily focuses on complete line sales, such as "blow-fill-cap" solutions. In developed markets, the emphasis is on upgrading existing production lines, while developing markets in Asia, Africa, and Latin America are still expanding their production capacity. The economic lifespan of domestic liquid packaging machinery is typically around 10 years [4][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Liquid Packaging Machinery Overview - Liquid packaging machinery is crucial for automating the entire process from bottle manufacturing to filling, capping, labeling, and packaging. The core equipment includes blow molding machines, filling machines, capping machines, and downstream packaging equipment. The industry is characterized by integrated solutions, with developed countries focusing on line upgrades and emerging markets still in the expansion phase [10][4]. 2. Domestic Market - Recent structural changes in domestic beverage consumption, driven by health trends, have led to rapid growth in sugar-free drinks, tea, and functional beverages. This has resulted in a significant recovery in equipment demand, with domestic companies entering an expansion cycle post-2019. The competition in the domestic market is intense, but growth is expected to remain stable [4][21]. 3. Overseas Market Opportunities - Emerging markets have shown consistent growth over the past decade, accelerated post-pandemic. Increased consumer spending in countries like India, Southeast Asia, and Latin America has driven demand for bottled water and sugary beverages. Chinese companies, leveraging cost advantages and service capabilities, are seeing accelerated export growth, with significant potential for market share expansion in these regions [4][21][25]. 4. Advantages of Chinese Liquid Packaging Machinery Exports - Chinese manufacturers have several competitive advantages in overseas markets, including lower purchase and maintenance costs compared to Western brands, efficient logistics to Southeast Asia and South Asia, and the ability to provide customized products and stable technical services. The global trend of investment shifting towards emerging markets further supports the demand for packaging equipment [4][25][30]. 5. Market Size and Growth Projections - The global packaging equipment market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 3.8% from 2024 to 2032, while China's packaging machinery industry is expected to grow at an annual rate of around 8% during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. The average profitability growth rate in the industry is estimated at 7%, with exports potentially reaching $12 billion [4][21]. 6. Market Demand and Supply Analysis - The report estimates that the domestic liquid packaging machinery market size for beverage packaging will reach approximately 169.4 billion yuan in 2024, based on consumption data and production line requirements. The overseas market for liquid packaging machinery is projected to be around 750.9 billion yuan, with significant growth potential in regions like Asia-Pacific and Africa [4][31][35]. 7. Recommended Companies - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Dali Long, New Meixing, Yongchuan Intelligent, and Zhongya Co., which are positioned to benefit from the industry's growth and export opportunities [4][21].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance [4]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leading outdoor advertising media firm, focusing on elevator media and cinema advertising, with a significant market share of over 70% in elevator media [7][12]. - The acquisition of New Trend Media is expected to enhance the company's bargaining power and improve revenue efficiency, potentially leading to a combined market share of approximately 17% in outdoor advertising [6][7]. - The company is expanding its overseas media presence, particularly in Southeast Asia, which is anticipated to contribute to its second growth curve [6][7]. Financial Performance - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 11,904 million yuan in 2023 to 16,487 million yuan by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 13% [4]. - Net profit is expected to increase from 4,827 million yuan in 2023 to 6,593 million yuan by 2027, with a steady growth rate of around 8% [4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.33 yuan in 2023 to 0.41 yuan in 2027 [4]. Industry Analysis - The outdoor advertising industry is experiencing a shift towards integrated effectiveness, with elevator media maintaining strong performance and expected to grow at a double-digit rate [7][42]. - The overall advertising market in China is projected to continue its growth trajectory, with outdoor advertising showing significant potential due to its effectiveness in reaching consumers in daily life scenarios [42][64]. - The trend of brands expanding overseas is creating new growth opportunities in the advertising sector, particularly in emerging markets [6][7]. Company Overview - The company has established a robust media network covering 340 cities in China and several countries in Southeast Asia, with a total of approximately 128.7 million elevator TV units and 168.5 million elevator poster units [13][12]. - The company has a stable ownership structure, with significant stakes held by its founder and Alibaba, ensuring a solid foundation for future growth [19][21]. - The company has a strong reputation in the industry, having received numerous awards for its advertising effectiveness and innovative strategies [27].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [3]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leading IP ecosystem platform in China, leveraging content and community operations to drive growth. It has developed nearly 200 IPs and is enhancing its commercial value through a unique product development model [6][11]. - The company is expected to achieve total revenues of 29.96 billion, 32.62 billion, and 35.32 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 12%, 9%, and 8% respectively. Adjusted net profits are projected to be 2.26 billion, 3.26 billion, and 4.33 billion yuan, with significant growth in the latter two years [44][43]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has a total share capital of 413.76 million shares, with a market price of HKD 190.80, resulting in a market capitalization of approximately HKD 78.95 billion [1]. - The company has undergone significant development since its inception in 2009, evolving from a community platform to a comprehensive video community with a focus on IP development and commercialization [10][11]. Business Highlights - AI marketing is enhancing content production and optimizing advertising efficiency, with the introduction of the "Peanut AI" tool expected to significantly improve content creation and advertising effectiveness [25][27]. - The advertising business is projected to grow substantially, with revenues expected to increase by 27.7% and 20% in 2024 and the first half of 2025, respectively [29][31]. - The gaming segment is also showing strong performance, with revenues from established games and new releases contributing to overall growth. The game "Three Kingdoms: Strategize the World" has been a key driver of revenue [37][34]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to see a steady increase in revenue and profitability, with adjusted net profits turning positive by 2025. The projected P/E ratio for 2025 is 32.2, indicating a favorable valuation compared to peers [41][44]. - The financial analysis indicates a significant improvement in gross margins, expected to reach 39.6% by 2027, driven by operational efficiencies and revenue growth [43][20].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry or the company. Core Insights - The Chinese fast food chain industry is expected to grow from CNY 262.9 billion in 2024 to CNY 483.2 billion by 2029, with a CAGR of 10.8% from 2024 to 2029 [3][60]. - The leading company in the Chinese fast food chain sector is Lao Xiang Ji, holding a market share of 0.9% in 2024, with a significant presence in the East China market [4][65]. Company Overview - Lao Xiang Ji operates a dual model of direct sales and franchising, with 1,564 stores as of April 2025, and a growing proportion of franchise stores from 10.5% in 2022 to 41.8% in 2025 [4][5]. - The average customer spending is around CNY 30, with stable sales performance across both direct and franchise stores [21][45]. Market Position - Lao Xiang Ji is the top player in the Chinese fast food chain market, with a CR5 of only 3.6%, indicating a highly fragmented market [3][65]. - In the East China region, Lao Xiang Ji's GMV reached CNY 6.3 billion in 2024, with a market share of 2.2%, significantly outperforming its nearest competitor [4][66]. Financial Performance - The company's revenue has shown consistent growth, with total revenues of CNY 45.28 billion, CNY 62.88 billion, and CNY 21.20 billion for the first four months of 2022, 2023, and 2025 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 24.8%, 38.9%, and 9.9% [6][69]. - Gross margins have improved steadily, with figures of 20.3%, 23.3%, 22.8%, and 24.2% for the first four months of 2022, 2023, 2024, and 2025 respectively [6][71]. Store Operations - The company has a strong presence in nine provinces, with a focus on economically developed areas, and plans for further expansion into new regions and deeper market penetration [5][38]. - The average daily sales per store have been increasing, with direct stores achieving CNY 16,000 and franchise stores CNY 12,400 in the first four months of 2025 [4][45]. Supply Chain and Product Offering - Lao Xiang Ji has established an integrated supply chain from breeding to distribution, with over 500 suppliers and two central kitchens [36]. - The menu features 20 to 30 types of Chinese dishes, catering to various dining needs, including takeout and delivery services [20][24].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [4][31]. Core Insights - Xinhua Department Store is recognized as a leading retail company in the Ningxia region, with a significant market presence. The company has initiated a transformation of its supermarket operations since September 2025, which is expected to accelerate its fundamental performance [4][7]. - The company has maintained stable revenue and profit in the first three quarters of 2025, achieving a revenue of 4.707 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 108 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.3% [6][30]. - The supermarket business is the core revenue source for the company, and the ongoing transformation is anticipated to enhance future revenue and profit [6][25]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - As of Q3 2025, Xinhua Department Store operates 342 stores, including 14 department stores and 240 supermarkets, primarily located in Ningxia [7][10]. Financial Performance - The company forecasts revenues of 6.065 billion yuan for 2023, with a growth rate of 3%, and expects a net profit of 136 million yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 46% [4][30]. - The report projects net profits of 142 million yuan, 165 million yuan, and 213 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, indicating growth rates of 5%, 16%, and 29% [30][31]. Business Transformation - The company has begun a significant transformation of its supermarket operations, which is expected to improve its competitive position in the underdeveloped market segments [17][21]. - The introduction of high-quality products and optimization of the supply chain are key components of this transformation, which aims to enhance customer experience and drive sales [17][27]. Expansion Plans - Xinhua Department Store is set to expand into Beijing with a new project named "Xinhua Department Store CCmall," which is strategically located in a prime area of the city [20][22]. - The project is expected to contribute to the company's growth and is seen as a significant milestone in its expansion strategy [22][31].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [3] Core Views - The report highlights the opportunity in the paper sector due to the recent appreciation of the RMB against the USD, which enhances domestic purchasing power and reduces costs for imported raw materials like wood pulp [5][6] - The report suggests focusing on companies with high wood pulp procurement costs, such as Zhongshun Jierou, and recommends Sun Paper for its integrated advantages in cultural paper production [5][6] - The report also emphasizes the potential for improved profitability in Q4 due to stabilized and rising pulp prices, alongside the release of new production capacity [5][6] Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Overview - The light industry sector includes 167 listed companies with a total market value of 1,204.38 billion CNY and a circulating market value of 954.25 billion CNY [1] Market Performance - For the week of December 22-26, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.88%, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 3.53%. The light industry index gained 1.69%, ranking 16th among 28 Shenwan industries [10] - The paper sector saw a weekly increase of 4.47%, while the textile and apparel index rose by 2.86% [10] Key Company Recommendations - Sun Paper: Buy rating with projected EPS growth from 1.10 CNY in 2023 to 1.48 CNY in 2027, with a PE ratio decreasing from 14.25 to 10.60 [3] - Baiya Co.: Buy rating with projected EPS growth from 0.54 CNY in 2023 to 1.28 CNY in 2027, with a PE ratio decreasing from 38.94 to 16.49 [3] - Huali Group: Buy rating with projected EPS growth from 2.74 CNY in 2023 to 3.97 CNY in 2027, with a PE ratio decreasing from 19.24 to 13.27 [3] Raw Material Price Trends - The report notes fluctuations in raw material prices, with MDI and TDI prices decreasing, while cotton prices have shown an upward trend [18][22] - The average price of wood pulp and various paper products is tracked, indicating a mixed performance with some prices stabilizing and others showing slight increases [42] Housing Market Data - The report highlights a significant decline in property sales, with a 39.1% year-on-year decrease in transactions among major cities [31] - Cumulative property sales area from January to November 2025 shows a 7.8% decline year-on-year [59] Consumer Goods and AI Applications - The report discusses the potential of AI applications in consumer goods, particularly in the context of new product launches and market expansion opportunities [6] Conclusion - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the paper sector due to favorable currency movements and suggests specific companies for investment based on their cost structures and market positions [5][6]