Overview - The report emphasizes the need to focus on leading companies in the agricultural sector amidst a challenging market environment, highlighting potential investment opportunities in key areas such as food security and livestock production [2][8]. Group 1: Swine Farming - The report indicates that the reduction in breeding sow inventory has begun, with a notable decline to 39.9 million heads as of October 2025, marking a 1.1% month-on-month decrease and a 2.1% year-on-year decrease [20]. - The average price of live pigs was reported at 12.33 yuan/kg in November 2025, down 25.6% from the beginning of the year, indicating significant price pressure in the market [27]. - The report recommends focusing on leading companies such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and others, as they are expected to have stronger resilience and market share growth in a low-margin environment [11][20]. Group 2: Natural Rubber - The report discusses the slow contraction of supply in the natural rubber market, with production challenges due to climate change and labor cost increases, which are expected to impact future supply dynamics [49][55]. - It highlights that the current natural rubber prices are in a new bottoming phase, influenced by both supply constraints and weak demand from the tire and automotive sectors [59]. - The report recommends Hainan Rubber as a key player, noting its strategic land resource management and potential for growth in a recovering market [60][66]. Group 3: Sugar and Tomato Industries - The sugar industry is projected to see a production increase to 11.7 million tons in the 2025/26 season, a 4.8% rise year-on-year, driven by improved pricing for sugarcane [77]. - The report notes that the import of non-standard sugar sources has decreased significantly, which has positively impacted profit margins for domestic sugar producers [77]. - The tomato industry is undergoing accelerated capacity reduction, with a focus on improving efficiency and profitability in the face of market challenges [68].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the report industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - In November 2025, the economy showed a pattern of export improvement, investment stabilization, and consumption decline, reflecting the continued differentiation between the real - estate chain and non - real - estate chain. The market has gradually adapted to "de - real - estate" this year, and the continuous resilience of CPI and the improvement of corporate credit confirm the improvement of the economy's internal driving force. The long - term pessimistic expectations of the market for growth have been revised, and the technology chain dominates the market risk preference. Interest rates are becoming less sensitive to the real estate and economic fundamentals. In the past two weeks, the bond market has shown "bearish characteristics", and in the short term, the spread market between individual bonds can be grasped [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Production - In November, industrial production slowed down marginally, with the production of downstream consumer goods manufacturing improving. The year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value continued to decline by 0.1 pct to 4.8%. In terms of structure, the production of the mining industry accelerated, while the growth of the manufacturing and water, electricity, and gas supply industries slowed down. The year - on - year growth rates of the three major sectors were 6.3%, 4.6%, and 4.3% respectively, with the growth rates changing by +1.8 pct, - 0.3 pct, and - 1.1 pct compared with the previous month [2]. - Compared with the previous month, the production of the downstream consumer goods manufacturing industry improved, and the production of the mid - stream equipment manufacturing industry slowed down overall. The year - on - year industrial added values of industries such as pharmaceuticals, electronic equipment, textiles, and food all improved compared with the previous month. The growth rates of industrial added values of mid - stream industries such as automobiles and transportation equipment declined from high levels, with the year - on - year growth rates in November both at 11.9%, down 4.9 pct and 3.3 pct respectively from the previous month. In terms of absolute growth rates, the growth rates of chemical raw materials and products (6.7%), transportation equipment (11.9%), automobiles (11.9%), electronic equipment (9.2%), and general equipment (7.5%) were significantly higher than the overall level [1] - The service industry production index declined slightly. In November, the service industry production index increased by 4.2% year - on - year, and the growth rate decreased by 0.4 pct compared with the previous month. In terms of structure, the prosperity of producer services such as information technology, leasing, and finance was higher than the overall service industry and maintained strong resilience [1] Investment - Driven by the improvement of manufacturing investment, the decline of the fixed - asset investment growth rate narrowed. In November, the year - on - year decline of the fixed - asset investment completion amount was 11.98%, and the decline narrowed by 0.24 pct compared with the previous month. Among the three major sub - items, the manufacturing investment growth rate was the most resilient. In November, the growth rates of manufacturing investment and infrastructure investment recovered. The growth rates of manufacturing, infrastructure, and real - estate investment were - 4.5%, - 11.9%, and - 30.3% respectively, with changes of +2.2 pct, +0.2 pct, and - 7.3 pct compared with the previous month. Among manufacturing sub - industries, the investment growth rates of chemical raw material product processing, non - ferrous metal smelting, and general equipment recovered significantly compared with the previous month [3] - The year - on - year decline of the real - estate sales area narrowed, and the sales price declined at an accelerated pace. In November, the year - on - year growth rates of commercial housing sales volume and sales area were - 25.1% and - 17.3% respectively, with changes of - 0.8 pct and +1.5 pct compared with the previous month. The unit price calculated from the sales volume and sales area decreased by - 9.5% year - on - year, further dropping 2.6 pct compared with the previous month. In terms of investment, the year - on - year decline of the real - estate new construction and completion areas stabilized and narrowed. In November, the year - on - year growth rates of the real - estate new construction area and completion area were - 27.6% and - 25.5% respectively, and the year - on - year declines narrowed by 1.9 pct and 2.7 pct respectively compared with the previous month, and the overall situation was still at the bottom - grinding stage [3] Consumption - Consumption declined more than expected, and the resilience of catering consumption was still stronger than that of commodities. In November, the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales was 1.3%, a decrease of 1.6 pct compared with the previous month, and also lower than the market consensus expectation of 2.93% in the WIND statistics. Among them, the year - on - year growth rates of catering revenue and commodity retail were 3.2% and 1% respectively, with changes of - 0.6 pct and - 1.8 pct compared with the previous month [3] - In commodity retail, in addition to the drag of post - real - estate cycle commodities, the sales growth of gold and silver jewelry slowed down in November. The year - on - year growth rate of gold and silver jewelry in November was 8.5% (down 29.1 pct compared with the previous month), but the monthly sales of gold and silver fluctuated greatly. Coupled with the recent strong performance of gold prices, subsequent sales may still rebound. The year - on - year growth rates of post - real - estate cycle related commodities (household appliances, automobiles, furniture, and decoration materials) continued to decline. In November, the year - on - year sales of household appliances, decoration materials, automobiles, and furniture decreased by 19.4%, 17%, 8.3%, and 3.8% respectively. Affected by influenza and other factors, the growth rate of drug sales accelerated in November, with the growth rate increasing by 1.3 pct compared with the previous month to 4.9% [3] Export and Bond Market - In November, exports returned to high prosperity, investment decline narrowed, and consumption declined. The year - on - year growth rates of exports, investment, and social retail sales were 5.9%, - 12%, and 1.3% respectively, with changes of +7 pct, +0.2 pct, and - 1.6 pct compared with the previous month. The data did not change the weak sentiment in the bond market. After the 10Y interest rate declined slightly by 0.4 bp, it returned to the upward channel, and the market did not significantly price the data [2] - In the past two weeks, the bond market has experienced over - decline, recovery, and then weakening again, showing obvious "bearish characteristics". The pressure on the liability side has not been relieved, and there is still a lack of long - buying power in institutional behavior. In the short term, the spread market between individual bonds can be grasped [4]

证券研究报告 信用业务周报 中央经济工作会议后市场或如何演绎？ 2025年12月15日 2 【市场观察】中央经济工作会议落地对市场有何影响？ ➢ 一、中央经济工作会议落地对市场有何影响？ 中泰证券研究所 分析师：徐驰 执业证书编号：S0740519080003 分析师：张文宇 执业证书编号：S0740520120003 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明 【市场回顾】 图表：市场表现回顾 数据来源：Wind，中泰证券研究所 3 ➢ 上周两大会议落地。12月8日（周一）政治局会议通稿发布后，市场反应较为平淡，纳斯达克中 国金龙指数当日收涨仅0.08%，次日A股上证指数收跌0.37%。12月11日（周四）中央经济工作 会议通稿发布后市场波动增大，纳斯达克金龙指数当日高开0.7%，盘中一度涨幅超过1%，随后 回落收跌0.3%，次日上证指数上涨0.41%，万得全A涨幅达0.77%，科技板块提振尤为明显。 ➢ 本次两大会议对经济整体形势判断定调偏乐观，同时预示2026年经济总量政策将维持定力。财政 政策强调"保持必要的财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量，规范税收优惠、财政补贴政策"，这 意味着在"反内卷"的要求下，整体 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the REITs industry [2] Core Insights - The REITs index experienced a decline of 0.29% this week, with operational rights categories dropping by 0.33% and property rights categories increasing by 1.07% [5][18] - The total market capitalization of the REITs industry is approximately 222.47 billion, with a circulating market value of about 112.39 billion [2] - Recent market activity includes the registration and inquiry announcement for the Huaxia Nuclear Clean Energy REIT, with an inquiry range set between 3.356 yuan and 5.033 yuan per share [7][12] Market Performance - The trading volume for the week reached 1.96 billion yuan, reflecting a 6.2% increase, with an average daily turnover rate of 0.3% [44] - The performance of various asset types showed significant variations, with clean energy REITs seeing a 23.5% increase in trading volume [44] - The correlation of REITs with the ten-year treasury bond is 0.19, while the correlation with the Shanghai Composite Index is 0.39, indicating a moderate relationship with equity markets [20] Key Events - The Huaxia Nuclear Clean Energy REIT project has been registered and is set for offline inquiry on December 17, 2025 [12] - The report highlights the approval status of several REIT projects, including the submission of the Boshi Shandong Iron Investment Road and Bridge REIT [12][7] - Six REITs, including the Huaxia Fund's Huayuan REIT, announced dividend distributions this week [12][44] Trading and Valuation - The overall REITs market saw 17 REITs increase in value, while 58 declined, resulting in an overall drop of 0.85% [22] - The valuation yield for various REITs ranged from -0.54% to 9.80%, with the highest yield observed in Ping An Guangzhou Guanghe REIT at 9.80% [45] - The P/NAV ratio for the REITs is between 0.72 and 1.84, indicating varying levels of market valuation relative to net asset value [45]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the light industry manufacturing and textile apparel sectors [4][6]. Core Insights - The central economic work conference highlighted the optimization of the "two new" policies, with an expected increase in subsidy amounts for 2026, from 150 billion yuan in 2024 to 300 billion yuan in 2025. The support scope is expanding from physical consumption to service consumption, indicating a significant policy shift [6][7]. - The report suggests focusing on four main investment lines: emotional consumption, intelligent consumer goods, branded apparel, and manufacturing upgrades. It emphasizes the potential for increased concentration in the paper and textile manufacturing sectors due to manufacturing efficiency, innovation capabilities, and environmental standards [6][7]. - The report identifies specific companies with growth potential, such as Pop Mart, which has a replicable IP incubation capability, and Morning Glory, which is undergoing a transformation [6][7]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The light industry manufacturing index decreased by 1.04%, ranking 16th among 28 industries, while the textile apparel index fell by 2.57%, ranking 26th [6][11]. - The report notes a mixed performance in sub-sectors, with packaging printing up by 1.45% and home goods down by 1.75% [11]. Key Companies and Recommendations - The report recommends buying shares in companies like Sun Paper, Baiya Co., and Huali Group, with expected earnings per share (EPS) growth and favorable price-to-earnings (PE) ratios [4][6]. - Specific attention is drawn to the outdoor retail expansion of Li Ning, which is seen as a positive operational change [6][7]. Raw Material and Pricing Trends - The report tracks raw material prices, noting increases in MDI and TDI, while soft foam polyether prices have decreased. The prices of various paper products are also monitored, with packaging paper continuing to rise [19][44]. - The report highlights the rebound in broadleaf pulp prices and the overall positive trend in the paper sector, suggesting potential profitability improvements for companies like Sun Paper [7][44]. Export and Domestic Market Dynamics - The report discusses the recovery of exports, particularly in the furniture sector, with a noted increase in non-wood furniture exports from Vietnam to the U.S. [6][7]. - It also highlights the challenges in the domestic real estate market, with significant declines in property sales and construction activity [69][89].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight (Maintain)" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the total social financing (社融) in November increased by 2.49 trillion yuan, which is 159.7 billion yuan more than the same period last year, exceeding the consensus expectation of 2.02 trillion yuan [5][8] - The cumulative social financing for the first eleven months shows a year-on-year growth of 8.5%, maintaining the same growth rate as in October [5][8] - The report highlights a structural differentiation in financing, with trust loans, bond financing, and unendorsed bank acceptance bills showing significant year-on-year increases, while credit and government bonds experienced declines [5][9] Summary by Sections Social Financing Situation - In November, social financing increased by 2.49 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 159.7 billion yuan, surpassing expectations [5][8] - The cumulative social financing for the first eleven months shows an 8.5% year-on-year increase, consistent with October's growth rate [5][8] Credit Situation - The report notes that the credit supply is lower than in previous years, with November's new RMB loans amounting to 405.3 billion yuan, which is 116.3 billion yuan less than the same month last year [5][12] - The credit balance grew by 6.4% year-on-year, with a slight decline in growth rate compared to the previous month [12] Liquidity and Deposit Situation - The report indicates that M1 growth has slowed, while M2 and M1's differential has slightly expanded [19] - In November, RMB deposits increased by 1.4 trillion yuan, which is 760 billion yuan less than the same period last year, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.7% [21] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a shift in the investment logic for bank stocks from "pro-cyclical" to "weak-cyclical," indicating that during periods of economic stagnation, high dividend yields from bank stocks will remain attractive [24] - Two main investment lines are recommended: regional banks with strong certainty and large banks with high dividend yields [24]

- The report indicates that the market is on the edge of an upward trend signal, with the core observation indicator being whether the profitability effect is positive. The current trend line of the WIND All A Index is around 6262 points, and the closing price is at 6264 points, just on the verge of turning positive[2][5][7] - The timing system signal shows that the distance between the moving averages is 4.03%, significantly greater than the absolute value of 3%, indicating that the market has returned to an upward trend pattern[2][5][6] - The industry trend allocation model shows that the mid-term distress reversal expectation model signals attention to liquor and real estate; the TWO BETA model continues to recommend the technology sector, focusing on consumer electronics and domestic computing power. The industry trend model shows that the engineering machinery/industrial metals/energy storage sectors continue their upward trend[2][5][7] - From the valuation indicators, the PE of the WIND All A Index is around the 80th percentile, which is a medium level, and the PB is around the 50th percentile, which is a relatively low level. Based on the short-term trend judgment and the position management model, it is recommended that absolute return products with the WIND All A as the main stock allocation should have a position of 60%[5][7][12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [3][10] Core Views - The company has shown a significant increase in revenue and profit, with a 60.64% year-on-year growth in revenue and a 46.60% increase in net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters of 2025 [4][6] - The company maintains a healthy financial structure with a net debt ratio of 7.03% and a cash-to-short-term debt ratio of 3.14 times, indicating low short-term repayment pressure [6] - The company is focused on land acquisition in Zhejiang, particularly in Hangzhou, where it holds a leading position [6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2023A, the company reported revenue of 70,443 million yuan, with a projected decline to 69,152 million yuan in 2024A, followed by a slight recovery to 69,912 million yuan in 2025E [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to increase from 2,529 million yuan in 2023A to 2,879 million yuan in 2025E, reflecting a growth rate of 13% [3] - The company's gross profit margin improved to 12.4%, up by 2.0 percentage points year-on-year [6] Sales and Market Position - The company's total sales for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 786.3 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 1.87% year-on-year, ranking it 10th nationally [6] - The company has increased its land acquisition efforts, with new land value reaching 580.1 billion yuan, a 31.16% increase year-on-year [6] Financial Health - The company’s asset-liability ratio stands at 57.8%, with "three red lines" indicators consistently in the green zone [6] - The average financing cost has decreased to 3.1%, down by 0.3 percentage points from the previous year [6] Future Projections - The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 2,879 million yuan, 3,142 million yuan, and 3,425 million yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.93, 1.01, and 1.10 yuan [3][6]

Group 1: Report Summary - Forecasted incremental funds in 2026 from insurance, wealth management, and pensions amount to 3.1 trillion. End - of - year pre - positioning in technology is likely [4]. - This week, risk appetite rebounded, with the VIX index falling and the basis of near - month stock index futures contracts narrowing significantly. The A - share market showed a structural trend, with the technology sector leading the rise [4]. - End - of - year pre - positioning is occurring. Margin trading funds have been flowing back to technology for two weeks, and this week, southbound funds shifted from a hedging and balanced strategy to flowing into electronics [4]. Group 2: Asset Price Performance 2.1. Performance of Major Asset Classes - This week (2025/12/8 - 2025/12/12), US stocks rose, while A - shares and Hong Kong stocks fell. Technology stocks performed well, with the US Nasdaq, A - share ChiNext, and STAR 50 all rising. The bond market showed a differentiated performance, and the US dollar index fell by 0.6% [13]. 2.2. A - share Market - Among broad - based indices, micro - cap and dividend indices declined significantly, while the ChiNext and STAR 50 performed well. The ChiNext rose 2.7% and the STAR 50 rose 1.7% this week [19]. - Except for micro - cap stocks, the average daily trading volume of most broad - based indices increased, returning to the level of mid - August [23]. - The top five rising industries this week were communication (7.6%), national defense and military industry (5.1%), non - banking finance (4.3%), machinery and equipment (3.8%), and electronics (3.1%), with technology stocks leading the gains. Cyclical value stocks such as coal, oil and petrochemicals, real estate, and banks performed relatively poorly [29]. 2.3. Technology Sector - In October, the technology sector contracted significantly. In November, optical modules and optical communication rebounded. In the first two weeks of December, optical modules, optical communication, computing power, semiconductor equipment, and controllable nuclear fusion had excess returns [33]. - This week, the technology sector as a whole performed well. On Monday and Friday, most sub - sectors rose, and on Thursday, most sub - sectors fell, but it did not affect the overall upward trend [37]. Group 3: Fund Behavior Tracking 3.1. Margin Trading Funds - As of Thursday this week, the proportion of margin trading turnover in A - share turnover rebounded from 10.01% to 10.53%. The margin trading balance was approximately 2.51 trillion, and the proportion of margin trading balance to A - share free - float market capitalization was about 2.63% [48]. - From Monday to Thursday, margin trading funds continued to flow into major broad - based indices, while most broad - based ETF funds had net outflows, except for the STAR 50 and the Shanghai Composite Index, which had net inflows [53]. - This week, stocks with a market capitalization of over 3 billion added leverage. In stocks with a market capitalization of over 500 billion, industrial and commercial stocks such as Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, China Merchants Bank, Ping An of China, and Zhongji Innolight had large net margin purchases [57]. - Industries with a large proportion of net margin purchases to trading volume this week were banking, commerce and retail, coal, food and beverage, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, and real estate. Non - banking finance added leverage this week after five consecutive weeks of de - leveraging [59]. - Some popular stocks in electronics, machinery, and non - ferrous metals added leverage this week. The average ratio of net margin purchases to trading volume of the top 35 popular stocks rose to 3.00% this week [71]. 3.2. Quantitative Funds - In the past two weeks (12/1 - 12/12), the excess returns of CSI 500 and CSI 1000 quantitative index enhancement strategies were - 0.5% and - 0.2% respectively [73]. 3.3. Stock Index Futures - This week, the basis of near - month stock index futures contracts narrowed significantly, but the basis of far - month contracts remained at a relatively high level since July. The number of "this month" contracts decreased, while the number of "next month", "current quarter", and "next quarter" contracts increased [83]. 3.4. Main Funds - Main funds in the CSI 300 and ChiNext and STAR markets continued to have net outflows, and the net outflows accelerated. Main funds in the CSI 300 and ChiNext had significant net outflows on Thursday, and main funds in the STAR market had net outflows for five consecutive days, with a large outflow on Friday [88]. - Main funds flowed into banking and steel industries and flowed out of electronics, computer, and communication industries [92]. 3.5. Northbound Funds - This week, the total trading volume of northbound funds rebounded, with the average daily trading volume rising from 192.7 billion to 232.5 billion, and the proportion in A - share trading volume rising from 11.34% to 11.85% [94]. - This week, the decline of heavy - position stocks in the Hong Kong - connected Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Connect widened, and the median of the rise - fall ratio widened from - 0.39% to - 1.47%. The Hong Kong - connected Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Connect 50 index failed to outperform the CSI 300 this week [101]. 3.6. Southbound Funds - This week, the average daily trading volume of southbound funds rose from 138 billion to 158.3 billion, and the proportion rose from 51.2% to 54.9%. The average daily net purchase amount decreased from 2.1 billion to - 0.6 billion [103]. - Southbound funds continued to flow into industries such as electronics, automobiles, and banking, but the single - week net inflow scale of the banking industry decreased significantly compared to November. Commerce and retail shifted from continuous net inflows to net outflows [109].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry [4] Core Insights - The Shanghai land market is showing signs of recovery with improved land quality and increased willingness among developers to acquire land [8] - The land supply in Shanghai for 2025 is reported at 1.6524 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 2.16%, while the planned construction area is 3.2134 million square meters, a decrease of 3.71% [12][19] - The average premium rate for land transactions in Shanghai reached 15.75% in 2025, an increase of 5.47 percentage points year-on-year, with total land transfer fees amounting to 140.022 billion yuan, up 1.46% year-on-year [23] Summary by Sections 1. Shanghai Land Supply and Transaction Situation - The total area of land released for construction in Shanghai in 2025 is 1.6524 million square meters, with a planned construction area of 3.2134 million square meters [12] - The transaction area of construction land in 2025 is 1.6402 million square meters, a decrease of 5.63% year-on-year, while the planned construction area transacted is 3.1610 million square meters, down 14.46% year-on-year [19] - The average transaction floor price is 44,297.15 yuan per square meter, an increase of 8.63% year-on-year, and the average land price is 85,358.89 yuan per square meter, up 7.50% year-on-year [21] 2. Shanghai Land Auction Analysis - The top 10 high-premium land parcels are primarily located in the Pudong New Area and Hongkou District, indicating higher auction activity in these central urban areas compared to suburban regions [38] - The auction market in 2025 saw no failed bids, reflecting a robust demand for land [47] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading real estate companies with stable performance and high safety margins, such as China Merchants Shekou, Binjiang Group, and Huafa Group [47] - Beneficiary stocks recommended include Yuexiu Property, Greentown China, China Overseas Development, and China Resources Land [47] - For the property sector, recommended companies include China Resources Vientiane Life, China Overseas Property, Poly Property, and China Merchants Jinling [47]