Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [2][5]. Core Views - The company has achieved a milestone in the smart computing chip sector with the successful development of the CH37 series AI SoC chip, which has completed various stages including tape-out, packaging, and lighting up [2][4]. - The CH37 series chip features high-performance computing capabilities, achieving a peak AI computing power of 64 TOPS@INT8, and is designed for real-time operation in complex visual recognition and decision-making models [3][4]. - The company is transitioning from a specialized market focused on military graphics to a broader general market that includes artificial intelligence and data centers, with the CH37 series being a key product in this strategic shift [4][5]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 752 million yuan in 2025, 1.105 billion yuan in 2026, and 1.553 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting significant growth rates of 61%, 47%, and 41% respectively [2][5]. - The net profit is expected to recover from a loss of 165 million yuan in 2024 to a profit of 14 million yuan in 2025, and further increase to 90 million yuan in 2026 and 211 million yuan in 2027 [2][5]. - The report highlights a significant increase in R&D investment, with R&D expense ratios projected at 60.2% for 2024 and 46.8% for the first three quarters of 2025, indicating a strong commitment to innovation [5]. Market Position and Strategy - The CH37 series is positioned to meet the high computing demands of embodied intelligence and edge computing markets, applicable in various scenarios such as robotics, AI boxes, smart terminals, and drones [3][4]. - The company aims to leverage its high-performance chip capabilities to expand into new markets, including smart cities and industrial vision applications [3][4]. - The strategic transformation is expected to lead to a reversal of the company's previous operational challenges, with the successful launch of the CH37 series laying the groundwork for future testing and mass production [5].

Group 1: Market Review and Outlook - The mechanical equipment industry outperformed the market in 2025, with an overall increase of 27.80%, surpassing the Shanghai Composite Index by 17.65 percentage points [10][11] - The industry saw a recovery in performance, with revenue reaching 15,337 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.34%, and net profit of 1,103 billion yuan, up 14.19% [11] - The outlook for 2026 is optimistic, with expectations of a moderate recovery in macroeconomic conditions and improvements in domestic manufacturing demand [15][18] Group 2: Investment Directions: New Technologies - Focus on new technologies such as humanoid robots, nuclear fusion, quantum technology, low-speed unmanned systems, and perovskite solar cells, which are expected to drive industry upgrades and innovation [15][19] - Humanoid robots are shifting from theme-driven investments to value verification, with a focus on production schedules and scene orders [28][30] - Nuclear fusion is gaining momentum with accelerated technological progress and policy support, particularly in the Tokamak technology route [19][60] Group 3: Investment Directions: Cyclical Recovery - The cyclical recovery is driven by overseas expansion and policy support, with expectations for high export demand in 2026 [23][24] - The engineering machinery sector is showing strong recovery momentum, with significant growth in overseas exports and stabilization in domestic sales [23] - The oil service sector is entering an upward cycle, driven by the natural gas industry and AI computing power demands [23] Group 4: Recommended Stocks and Investment Portfolio - The investment strategy emphasizes a dual approach, focusing on both global benchmark chains and domestic supply chains [52][53] - Key recommended stocks include Sanhua Intelligent Controls, Beite Technology, and Yushun Technology, which are positioned to benefit from the growth in humanoid robots and related technologies [53][54] - The portfolio should balance between high visibility stocks linked to Tesla's supply chain and those offering higher growth potential in the domestic market [54][55]

Core Insights - Main Line 1: Three main lines of AI implementation: formation of endpoint access, practical iteration of model capabilities, and maturity of multimodal tools. Focus on AI comic dramas, AI games, AI education, AI marketing, and AI publishing [4] - Main Line 2: Investment value in the IP industry [4] AI Applications - AI Comic Dramas: Significant marginal changes with rapid growth in supply and demand, improving production efficiency by over 300% and reducing costs by over 90%. Support from platform policies is driving high-quality growth [7] - AI Games: Increasing penetration of AI in the development phase, with light casual and interactive games likely to lead in AI integration. Future potential in enhancing user engagement through AI-driven companionship [7] - AI Marketing: New marketing models driven by AI technology, with 53.1% of advertisers using AIGC for creative content generation. Over 80% of consumers are shifting from multi-platform searches to AI one-stop consultations, indicating a need for optimization in generation engines [7] - AI Education: AI reduces costs and improves teaching efficiency, with strong demand for educational equity in China. AI+ education companies are expected to penetrate deeper into the market leveraging product and promotional capabilities [7] - AI Publishing: Successful integration of AI in publishing by overseas companies, with domestic publishers also advancing AI participation in both popular and academic publishing ecosystems [7] IP Industry - The consumer market is shifting from "functional satisfaction" to "emotional resonance," with IP evolving from a traffic symbol to an emotional currency. Anticipation for large IPs and their commercialization is high [7] - The domestic cultural product infrastructure is globally leading, with millennials and Generation Z exhibiting cultural confidence and emotional consumption needs, indicating a smooth supply-demand logic [7] Media Sector Investment Opportunities - Gaming: The industry shows steady growth, with high EPS support in the gaming sector. Focus on companies with strong performance stability or significant product changes [7] - Film: The market is experiencing improved content supply and industry structure, with a gross profit margin of 28.9% in Q1-Q3 2025, up 7.2 percentage points year-on-year. The industry is recovering post-pandemic, with a focus on non-ticket revenue [7] - Publishing: In the defensive dimension, state-owned publishing companies are expected to maintain a strong foundation due to state backing and content advantages. In the offensive dimension, publishing companies are exploring smart education and offline store value [7] Recommended Companies - US Stocks: ALPHABET (GOOGL.O), Cipher Mining (CIFR.O) [7] - Hong Kong Stocks: Alibaba, Tencent Holdings, Kuaishou-W, Yueda Group, and Huimeng Technology [7] - A-shares: AI comic dramas (Rongxin Culture, Huanrui Century, Yidian Tianxia, Zhongwen Online), AI marketing (Yidian Tianxia, BlueFocus, FenZhong Media), AI games (Kaiying Network, Century Huatong, Giant Network), AI education and publishing (Doushen Education, Southern Media, Century Tianhong) [7] - IP: Recommended companies include Pop Mart, Damai Entertainment, Yueda Group, Giant Star Legend, Shanghai Film, Rongxin Culture, and Aofei Entertainment [7] - Media Sector: Focus on gaming (Century Huatong, Kaiying Network, Giant Network, 37 Interactive Entertainment, Perfect World, G-bits), film (China Film, Light Media, Wanda Film, Hengdian Film, Happy Blue Sea, Huace Film, Shanghai Film, China Confucianism, Maoyan Entertainment, Damai Entertainment, Jiecheng Shares), and publishing (Shandong Publishing, Central Plains Media, Yangtze River Media, Southern Media, Phoenix Media, Zhongnan Media, Xinhua Wenshu, Zhejiang Publishing, Anhui Xinhua Media, Times Publishing, Zhongwen Media, Inner Mongolia Xinhua) [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recent decline in the bond market is not due to a shift from pessimism to optimism about long - term economic growth but a change in market focus towards long - term issues such as "bond market supply and demand", bond industry career development, and how bond funds can outperform benchmarks. There are also short - term trading opportunities in bond spreads, but the "lock - in" risk is greater than the "missing out" risk [5][27][36]. - The overseas interest rate cut and the turmoil in technology stocks have little impact on the domestic market. The domestic monetary policy is "domestically - oriented" and not restricted by overseas easing. Domestic technology stocks are more resilient than their US counterparts [6][28]. - The market has a strong consensus expectation of "strong stocks and weak bonds" at the beginning of next year, but the spring rally in the equity market depends on a favorable macro - environment of loose liquidity and credit at the turn of the year [8][35]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overseas Market - **Federal Reserve Meeting**: The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25BP as expected, with a dovish stance. It raised GDP growth expectations, lowered PCE inflation expectations, and restarted balance - sheet expansion with an initial monthly scale of $40 billion [2][10][11]. - **US Stocks**: After the Fed meeting, US stocks first rose and then fell. On Friday, they erased nearly two weeks' worth of gains and returned to the level after the October meeting. The AI technology sector is vulnerable, and Oracle's poor earnings on December 10 dragged down the entire US stock market [14]. - **US Dollar and US Treasury Bonds**: The US dollar index weakened by 0.8% to 98.4 after the interest rate cut. The 10Y US Treasury bond yield first declined by about 8BP to 4.1% and then returned to the pre - meeting level of 4.18% [3][14]. Domestic Market - **Policy**: The Central Economic Work Conference reassured the market about previous concerns. The total policy emphasizes necessary policy strength. The monetary policy has three changes in its statement compared to last year, and the real - estate policy encourages the acquisition of existing commercial housing for affordable housing [4][20]. - **Economic Data**: In November, CPI was 0.7% year - on - year, up 0.5pct from the previous month, while PPI was - 2.2% year - on - year, down 0.1pct. The increase in corporate bond financing and bill financing pushed up social financing, and corporate loans drove a marginal recovery in credit. M1 and M2 growth rates declined by 1.3pct and 0.2pct respectively compared to the previous month [21][23][25]. - **Market Reaction**: Policy statements and data have little impact on the market. After the bond market's sharp decline last week, a neutral policy statement helped release market tension, and the market recovered the previous week's losses in three days. The economic fundamentals and data present both bullish and bearish signals, and factors such as Treasury supply and equity preference are also attracting market attention [5][27]. - **Institutional Behavior**: Institutions did not form a unified force during the long - bond recovery. Funds were the main force in the long - bond recovery last week, while securities firms hardly participated. Bond funds face redemption pressure, which restricts their ability to maintain a long - position [6][32]. - **Bond Market Outlook**: The bond market shows signs of a "bearish mindset". There are short - term trading opportunities in bond spreads, but the "lock - in" risk is greater than the "missing out" risk [36].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week (12.8 - 12.12), the funds' interest rates were divided, the daily average of large - bank lending decreased, and funds slightly increased leverage. The maturity of certificates of deposit (CDs) increased, and the yield curve of CD maturities flattened. In the cash bond trading, the main buyers were large banks, insurance companies increased the allocation of ultra - long - term bonds, funds increased positions in 3 - 5Y and 7 - 10Y interest - rate bonds and credit bonds within 5Y, and rural commercial banks mainly sold bonds [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monetary Fundamentals - There were 1.5118 trillion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities this week (12.8 - 12.12). The central bank cumulatively injected 668.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases, with a net liquidity injection of 4.7 billion yuan for the whole week. Next week, there will be 60 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchases injected and 40 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchases maturing [4][7]. - As of December 12, R001, R007, DR001, and DR007 were 1.35%, 1.51%, 1.27%, and 1.47% respectively, changing by - 2.46BP, 1.12BP, - 2.56BP, and 3.11BP compared to December 5, and were at the 15%, 9%, 10%, and 4% historical quantiles respectively [4][9]. - From December 8 to December 12, the total large - bank lending scale was 21.99 trillion yuan, with a daily maximum lending scale of 4.6 trillion yuan and a daily average lending scale of 4.4 trillion yuan, a decrease of 60 billion yuan compared to the previous week's daily average [4][14]. - The trading volume of pledged repurchase increased. The daily average trading volume was 8.08 trillion yuan, with a daily maximum of 8.25 trillion yuan, a 1.91% increase compared to the previous week's daily average. The proportion of overnight repurchase transactions decreased, with a daily average proportion of 89.4% and a daily maximum of 90.2%, a decrease of 0.09 percentage points compared to the previous week's daily average, and was at the 92.4% quantile as of December 12 [4][16]. 3.2 Certificates of Deposit and Bills - This week (12.8 - 12.12), the issuance scale of CDs increased, and the net financing decreased. The total issuance was 940.93 billion yuan, an increase of 445.82 billion yuan compared to the previous week; the total maturity was 1.0624 trillion yuan, an increase of 613.59 billion yuan compared to the previous week. The net financing was - 121.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 167.77 billion yuan compared to the previous week [4][19]. - By bank type, city commercial banks had the highest CD issuance scale. This week, the CD issuance scales of state - owned banks, joint - stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks were 244.69 billion yuan, 272.25 billion yuan, 361.74 billion yuan, and 56.43 billion yuan respectively, changing by 79.09 billion yuan, 173.02 billion yuan, 165.58 billion yuan, and 27.27 billion yuan compared to the previous week [19]. - By term type, the 6M CD issuance scale was the highest. The issuance scales of 1M, 3M, 6M, 9M, and 1Y CDs were 84.21 billion yuan, 257 billion yuan, 401.28 billion yuan, 59.56 billion yuan, and 138.88 billion yuan respectively, changing by 17.61 billion yuan, 196.65 billion yuan, 183.92 billion yuan, 17.62 billion yuan, and 30.02 billion yuan compared to the previous week. The 6M CDs accounted for the highest proportion (42.65%) of the total CD issuance of banks by type, mainly issued by city commercial banks; the 3M term accounted for 27.31%, also mainly issued by city commercial banks [20]. - This week, the CD maturity increased. The total maturity was 1.0624 trillion yuan, an increase of 613.59 billion yuan compared to the previous week. Next week (12/15 - 12/19), the CD maturity will be 1.06285 trillion yuan [23]. - This week, the CD issuance interest rates of each bank and each term showed differentiation. By bank type, as of December 12, the one - year CD issuance interest rates of joint - stock banks, state - owned banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks changed by - 0.33BP, 1.67BP, - 1.69BP, and 0.08BP respectively compared to December 5, and were at the 4%, 6%, 6%, and 5% historical quantiles; by term, as of December 12, the 1M, 3M, and 6M CD issuance interest rates changed by 2.38BP, 3.64BP, and - 0.2BP respectively compared to December 5, and were at the 9%, 8%, and 4% historical quantiles [25]. - This week, most Shibor interest rates increased. As of December 12, the overnight, 1 - week, 2 - week, 1M, and 3M Shibor interest rates changed by - 2.2BP, 3.5BP, 0.1BP, 0.5BP, and 0.5BP respectively compared to December 5, reaching 1.28%, 1.45%, 1.51%, 1.53%, and 1.59% [27]. - This week, the CD maturity yields flattened. As of December 12, the 1M, 3M, 6M, 9M, and 1Y maturity yields of AAA - rated ChinaBond commercial bank CDs were 1.62%, 1.62%, 1.64%, 1.65%, and 1.66% respectively, changing by 3.57BP, 0BP, 0.5BP, - 0.25BP, and 0.5BP compared to December 5 [4][31]. - This week, the bill interest rates increased. As of December 12, the 3M state - owned bank direct discount rate, 3M state - owned bank transfer discount rate, 6M state - owned bank direct discount rate, and 6M state - owned bank transfer discount rate were 0.66%, 0.5%, 0.91%, and 0.95% respectively, changing by - 6BP, 5BP, 10BP, and 8BP compared to December 5 [4][33]. 3.3 Institutional Behavior Tracking - The leverage ratio of broad - based funds slightly increased. As of December 12, the bank leverage ratio, securities leverage ratio, insurance leverage ratio, and broad - based fund leverage ratio were 103.5%, 183.5%, 132.1%, and 104.6% respectively, changing by 0.01BP, 6.88BP, 2.52BP, and 0.32BP compared to December 5, and were at the 28%, 1%, 89%, and 14% historical quantiles respectively [4][36]. - The central value of the net - buying duration of funds rebounded, and wealth management and insurance increased their durations. As of December 12, the weighted average net - buying duration (MA = 10) of funds was - 3.52 years, a decrease from - 8.48 years on December 5, and was at the 4% historical quantile; the weighted average net - buying duration (MA = 10) of wealth management was 3.80 years, an increase compared to December 5, and was at the 95% historical quantile; the weighted average net - buying duration (MA = 10) of rural commercial banks was 1.14 years, a decrease compared to December 5, and was at the 56% historical quantile; the weighted average net - buying duration (MA = 10) of insurance was 12.23 years, a decrease compared to December 5, and was at the 87% historical quantile [4][38]. - The inter - bank leverage ratio increased. As of December 12, the total inter - bank bond - market leverage ratio increased by 0.34 percentage points to 106.68% compared to December 5, and was at the 45.30% historical quantile since 2021 [39]. - This week, the duration of medium - and long - term pure - bond funds increased. As of December 12, the duration of medium - and long - term pure - bond funds increased by 0.16 years to 3.13 years compared to December 5, and was at the 54% historical quantile since this year; the duration of short - term pure - bond funds increased by 0.20 years to 1.82 years compared to December 5, and was at the 89% historical quantile since this year [45].

Group 1: Credit Momentum Analysis - Credit growth is expected to continue a slight downward trend, supported by new infrastructure, new industrialization, and technology finance [5][10] - New infrastructure loans are anticipated to rebound, with structural adjustments continuing, as new infrastructure takes on momentum [5][10] - Manufacturing loans are expected to maintain resilience, with a market space of 10 trillion yuan over five years for traditional industry upgrades [5][10] - Technology finance loans are likely to sustain high growth, with high-tech enterprise loans currently only accounting for about 10% of total loans, indicating room for improvement [5][10] Group 2: Bank Revenue and Profitability - Interest income is expected to recover, leading to a projected 2.5% year-on-year increase in revenue for listed banks in 2026, with net profit expected to rise by 2.3% [5][10] - The net interest margin is projected to decline by 2.5 basis points in 2026, but the decline is expected to be significantly smaller than in 2025 [5][10] - Non-interest income is expected to see growth, particularly from wealth management fees, as deposit migration continues [5][10] Group 3: Funding Analysis - The estimated total investment from insurance funds, mutual funds, and wealth management into the banking sector is projected to be 224.4 billion yuan, potentially driving a 7.3% increase in the sector [5][10] - Insurance funds are expected to contribute 125 billion yuan to the banking sector, leading to a 4.1% upward potential [5][10] - Mutual funds are projected to bring in an additional 254 billion yuan from active funds and 706 billion yuan from passive funds [5][10] Group 4: Asset Quality - Overall asset quality remains stable, with corporate loans being continuously optimized while retail risks are gradually revealing [5][10] - The non-performing loan ratio for retail loans is 1.27%, showing a slight increase compared to the beginning of the year, but the growth rate remains stable [5][10] - The current high loan-to-value (LTV) ratio for mortgages is estimated to be between 1.9% and 4.1%, indicating manageable risk levels [5][10] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-quality regional city commercial banks and high-dividend stocks as dual investment lines [5][10] - The banking sector is expected to maintain strong certainty, with a stable return on equity (ROE) projected at 8% by 2028 [5][10] - Recommended banks include Jiangsu Bank, Nanjing Bank, and Qilu Bank for their high ROE and resilience [5][10]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Increase" (maintained) [2][21] Core Insights - The external environment and major power competition remain important starting points for policy, with increased confidence in addressing internal and external issues [4][11] - Fiscal policy will maintain a stable and more proactive stance, with a focus on domestic demand and innovation [4][12] - Monetary policy will continue to be moderately loose, emphasizing flexible decision-making and policy efficiency [4][12] - The regulatory approach for small and medium financial institutions has shifted from "risk resolution" to "quality improvement" [4][18] Summary by Sections Overall Thoughts - The report emphasizes that the external environment and major power competition are crucial for economic policy, with a more confident outlook on both internal and external challenges [4][11] Fiscal Policy - The fiscal policy will continue to be more proactive, focusing on maintaining stability. The emphasis will be on domestic demand and innovation, with a potential tightening of tax incentives and subsidies [4][12][18] Monetary Policy - The monetary policy will remain moderately loose, with a focus on flexible and efficient decision-making. The use of various policy tools, including adjustments to reserve requirements and interest rates, will be prioritized [4][12][18] Financial Regulation - The regulatory focus for small and medium financial institutions has transitioned to enhancing quality rather than merely resolving risks, indicating a shift towards reform and consolidation in the sector [4][18] Investment Recommendations - Investment strategies for bank stocks have shifted from "pro-cyclical" to "weak-cyclical," with a focus on high-dividend stability during economic downturns. Recommendations include regional banks with strong certainty and large banks with high dividends [4][20]

Overview - The report emphasizes the need to focus on leading companies in the agricultural sector amidst a challenging market environment, highlighting potential investment opportunities in key areas such as food security and livestock production [2][8]. Group 1: Swine Farming - The report indicates that the reduction in breeding sow inventory has begun, with a notable decline to 39.9 million heads as of October 2025, marking a 1.1% month-on-month decrease and a 2.1% year-on-year decrease [20]. - The average price of live pigs was reported at 12.33 yuan/kg in November 2025, down 25.6% from the beginning of the year, indicating significant price pressure in the market [27]. - The report recommends focusing on leading companies such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and others, as they are expected to have stronger resilience and market share growth in a low-margin environment [11][20]. Group 2: Natural Rubber - The report discusses the slow contraction of supply in the natural rubber market, with production challenges due to climate change and labor cost increases, which are expected to impact future supply dynamics [49][55]. - It highlights that the current natural rubber prices are in a new bottoming phase, influenced by both supply constraints and weak demand from the tire and automotive sectors [59]. - The report recommends Hainan Rubber as a key player, noting its strategic land resource management and potential for growth in a recovering market [60][66]. Group 3: Sugar and Tomato Industries - The sugar industry is projected to see a production increase to 11.7 million tons in the 2025/26 season, a 4.8% rise year-on-year, driven by improved pricing for sugarcane [77]. - The report notes that the import of non-standard sugar sources has decreased significantly, which has positively impacted profit margins for domestic sugar producers [77]. - The tomato industry is undergoing accelerated capacity reduction, with a focus on improving efficiency and profitability in the face of market challenges [68].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the report industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - In November 2025, the economy showed a pattern of export improvement, investment stabilization, and consumption decline, reflecting the continued differentiation between the real - estate chain and non - real - estate chain. The market has gradually adapted to "de - real - estate" this year, and the continuous resilience of CPI and the improvement of corporate credit confirm the improvement of the economy's internal driving force. The long - term pessimistic expectations of the market for growth have been revised, and the technology chain dominates the market risk preference. Interest rates are becoming less sensitive to the real estate and economic fundamentals. In the past two weeks, the bond market has shown "bearish characteristics", and in the short term, the spread market between individual bonds can be grasped [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Production - In November, industrial production slowed down marginally, with the production of downstream consumer goods manufacturing improving. The year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value continued to decline by 0.1 pct to 4.8%. In terms of structure, the production of the mining industry accelerated, while the growth of the manufacturing and water, electricity, and gas supply industries slowed down. The year - on - year growth rates of the three major sectors were 6.3%, 4.6%, and 4.3% respectively, with the growth rates changing by +1.8 pct, - 0.3 pct, and - 1.1 pct compared with the previous month [2]. - Compared with the previous month, the production of the downstream consumer goods manufacturing industry improved, and the production of the mid - stream equipment manufacturing industry slowed down overall. The year - on - year industrial added values of industries such as pharmaceuticals, electronic equipment, textiles, and food all improved compared with the previous month. The growth rates of industrial added values of mid - stream industries such as automobiles and transportation equipment declined from high levels, with the year - on - year growth rates in November both at 11.9%, down 4.9 pct and 3.3 pct respectively from the previous month. In terms of absolute growth rates, the growth rates of chemical raw materials and products (6.7%), transportation equipment (11.9%), automobiles (11.9%), electronic equipment (9.2%), and general equipment (7.5%) were significantly higher than the overall level [1] - The service industry production index declined slightly. In November, the service industry production index increased by 4.2% year - on - year, and the growth rate decreased by 0.4 pct compared with the previous month. In terms of structure, the prosperity of producer services such as information technology, leasing, and finance was higher than the overall service industry and maintained strong resilience [1] Investment - Driven by the improvement of manufacturing investment, the decline of the fixed - asset investment growth rate narrowed. In November, the year - on - year decline of the fixed - asset investment completion amount was 11.98%, and the decline narrowed by 0.24 pct compared with the previous month. Among the three major sub - items, the manufacturing investment growth rate was the most resilient. In November, the growth rates of manufacturing investment and infrastructure investment recovered. The growth rates of manufacturing, infrastructure, and real - estate investment were - 4.5%, - 11.9%, and - 30.3% respectively, with changes of +2.2 pct, +0.2 pct, and - 7.3 pct compared with the previous month. Among manufacturing sub - industries, the investment growth rates of chemical raw material product processing, non - ferrous metal smelting, and general equipment recovered significantly compared with the previous month [3] - The year - on - year decline of the real - estate sales area narrowed, and the sales price declined at an accelerated pace. In November, the year - on - year growth rates of commercial housing sales volume and sales area were - 25.1% and - 17.3% respectively, with changes of - 0.8 pct and +1.5 pct compared with the previous month. The unit price calculated from the sales volume and sales area decreased by - 9.5% year - on - year, further dropping 2.6 pct compared with the previous month. In terms of investment, the year - on - year decline of the real - estate new construction and completion areas stabilized and narrowed. In November, the year - on - year growth rates of the real - estate new construction area and completion area were - 27.6% and - 25.5% respectively, and the year - on - year declines narrowed by 1.9 pct and 2.7 pct respectively compared with the previous month, and the overall situation was still at the bottom - grinding stage [3] Consumption - Consumption declined more than expected, and the resilience of catering consumption was still stronger than that of commodities. In November, the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales was 1.3%, a decrease of 1.6 pct compared with the previous month, and also lower than the market consensus expectation of 2.93% in the WIND statistics. Among them, the year - on - year growth rates of catering revenue and commodity retail were 3.2% and 1% respectively, with changes of - 0.6 pct and - 1.8 pct compared with the previous month [3] - In commodity retail, in addition to the drag of post - real - estate cycle commodities, the sales growth of gold and silver jewelry slowed down in November. The year - on - year growth rate of gold and silver jewelry in November was 8.5% (down 29.1 pct compared with the previous month), but the monthly sales of gold and silver fluctuated greatly. Coupled with the recent strong performance of gold prices, subsequent sales may still rebound. The year - on - year growth rates of post - real - estate cycle related commodities (household appliances, automobiles, furniture, and decoration materials) continued to decline. In November, the year - on - year sales of household appliances, decoration materials, automobiles, and furniture decreased by 19.4%, 17%, 8.3%, and 3.8% respectively. Affected by influenza and other factors, the growth rate of drug sales accelerated in November, with the growth rate increasing by 1.3 pct compared with the previous month to 4.9% [3] Export and Bond Market - In November, exports returned to high prosperity, investment decline narrowed, and consumption declined. The year - on - year growth rates of exports, investment, and social retail sales were 5.9%, - 12%, and 1.3% respectively, with changes of +7 pct, +0.2 pct, and - 1.6 pct compared with the previous month. The data did not change the weak sentiment in the bond market. After the 10Y interest rate declined slightly by 0.4 bp, it returned to the upward channel, and the market did not significantly price the data [2] - In the past two weeks, the bond market has experienced over - decline, recovery, and then weakening again, showing obvious "bearish characteristics". The pressure on the liability side has not been relieved, and there is still a lack of long - buying power in institutional behavior. In the short term, the spread market between individual bonds can be grasped [4]

证券研究报告 信用业务周报 中央经济工作会议后市场或如何演绎？ 2025年12月15日 2 【市场观察】中央经济工作会议落地对市场有何影响？ ➢ 一、中央经济工作会议落地对市场有何影响？ 中泰证券研究所 分析师：徐驰 执业证书编号：S0740519080003 分析师：张文宇 执业证书编号：S0740520120003 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明 【市场回顾】 图表：市场表现回顾 数据来源：Wind，中泰证券研究所 3 ➢ 上周两大会议落地。12月8日（周一）政治局会议通稿发布后，市场反应较为平淡，纳斯达克中 国金龙指数当日收涨仅0.08%，次日A股上证指数收跌0.37%。12月11日（周四）中央经济工作 会议通稿发布后市场波动增大，纳斯达克金龙指数当日高开0.7%，盘中一度涨幅超过1%，随后 回落收跌0.3%，次日上证指数上涨0.41%，万得全A涨幅达0.77%，科技板块提振尤为明显。 ➢ 本次两大会议对经济整体形势判断定调偏乐观，同时预示2026年经济总量政策将维持定力。财政 政策强调"保持必要的财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量，规范税收优惠、财政补贴政策"，这 意味着在"反内卷"的要求下，整体 ...