Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight (Maintain)" [3] Core Views - The report highlights the robust growth of the toy and IP derivative sectors, particularly with the recent success of Pop Mart's new product launches and share buybacks, which have bolstered market confidence [5][6] - The report suggests that the emotional consumption trend is on the rise, with continuous product iterations meeting diverse consumer demands [5] - Key companies to watch include Pop Mart, which has demonstrated replicable IP incubation capabilities, and other brands like M&G Stationery and Buluo, which are expanding their product lines and market reach [5][6] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The total market capitalization of the industry is approximately 1,274.52 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of about 1,014.95 billion yuan [1] - The light industry manufacturing index increased by 4.48%, ranking 7th among 28 industries, while the textile and apparel index also rose by 4.48%, ranking 6th [10] Key Company Performance - Pop Mart's recent product launches, including the Valentine's Day limited edition blind box, have sold out quickly, with premium prices reaching over 600% for hidden items and over 200% for regular items [5] - Anta Sports reported a low single-digit negative growth for its main brand in Q4, but overall, the company is expected to achieve double-digit growth for the year [5][6] Industry Trends - The report emphasizes the importance of AI applications in consumer products, particularly in the context of AI smart glasses, which are expected to see significant market growth [6] - The report also notes the ongoing challenges in the real estate market, with a 14.6% year-on-year decline in property sales in major cities [34][36] Raw Material Prices - Recent trends show a decrease in prices for MDI and TDI, while the price of cotton has increased year-on-year [19][24] - The report tracks various raw material prices, indicating fluctuations that could impact production costs across the industry [19][24]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for Tianlu Technology [5] Core Views - The company is expected to see significant revenue growth driven by the upcoming TAC optical film project, which is anticipated to break the foreign monopoly in the market [7] - The company has a stable position in the main business of light guide plates, with a projected increase in net profit from 27 million yuan in 2024 to 134 million yuan in 2027 [5][7] - The report highlights the potential of the reflective polarizing enhancement film project, which aims to meet domestic demand and reduce reliance on imports [7] Financial Summary - The total share capital is 110.32 million shares, with a market price of 38.34 yuan, resulting in a market capitalization of approximately 4,229.61 million yuan [5] - Revenue projections show a growth from 596 million yuan in 2023 to 1,343 million yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 54% from 2025 to 2027 [5][8] - The net profit is expected to grow from 9 million yuan in 2023 to 134 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a significant increase in profitability [5][8]

Group 1: Market Overview - A-share market showed signs of overheating, with a cumulative increase of over 10% in just 17 trading days from December 17, 2025, to January 12, 2026[8] - From January 15 to January 23, 2026, approximately 12 ETFs heavily held by the Central Huijin experienced significant outflows totaling 5590.87 billion yuan, averaging nearly 800 billion yuan per trading day[11] - The outflow was primarily from the CSI 300 (59%) and CSI 1000 indices (16%), while the STAR 50 and ChiNext saw relatively smaller outflows[13] Group 2: ETF Holdings and Impact - Central Huijin's total holdings in 23 major ETFs were approximately 1.28 trillion yuan as of mid-2025, with 12 ETFs having over 70% held by Huijin[21] - The outflow from the 13 ETFs during the specified period resulted in a share decline of approximately 13% to 54%, with the CSI 1000 ETFs experiencing the most significant drop of over 40%[21] - In extreme scenarios, the outflow could represent about 34.59% of Huijin's original holdings, leaving a remaining position of approximately 950 billion yuan[22] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Structure - Despite the outflows, market sentiment remained relatively warm, with no significant risk aversion observed, as trading activity and thematic trading remained active[25] - The market structure showed a shift towards smaller-cap stocks, with micro and small-cap indices performing strongly during the ETF redemption period[29] - Value stocks faced significant pressure, particularly in the CSI 50 index, which was impacted by simultaneous redemptions from both the CSI 300 and CSI 50 ETFs[35]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the electric equipment sector [5] Core Insights - Elon Musk's companies, SpaceX and Tesla, plan to build a total of 200GW of solar capacity in the U.S. over the next three years, significantly exceeding market expectations [34] - The report highlights the strong growth potential in the lithium battery sector, particularly with the expansion of LMFP production, which is expected to see a 275% year-on-year increase in output by 2025 [17] - The Southern Power Grid Company is set to invest 180 billion yuan in fixed assets in 2026, marking a continuous five-year high, with a focus on new power system construction and strategic emerging industries [25] Summary by Sections Electric Equipment Sector - The report emphasizes the continuous high investment in the electric equipment sector, with a focus on new energy and digital transformation [25] - Key companies to watch include XJ Electric, Pinggao Electric, and China XD Electric, which are expected to benefit from the ongoing investments [25] Lithium Battery Sector - The report notes significant expansions in LMFP production, with companies like Hunan Youneng and Xiamen Tungsten planning substantial increases in capacity [17] - The introduction of favorable policies for equipment updates and financing is expected to stimulate growth in the lithium battery sector [14] Solar Energy Sector - The report tracks the solar industry, noting stable prices for polysilicon and solar cells, while demand remains cautious due to market uncertainties [27][28] - Companies like Junda Co. are actively pursuing funding to enhance their capabilities in space solar energy, aligning with the broader trend of technological advancement in renewable energy [35] Wind Energy Sector - The report highlights upcoming offshore wind power tenders in Turkey and the Netherlands, indicating a growing international focus on wind energy [8] - Domestic wind power installations are projected to maintain high growth rates, with significant opportunities for companies involved in offshore wind projects [8]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. **Model Name**: Timing System Model **Model Construction Idea**: The model uses the distance between the short-term moving average (20-day) and the long-term moving average (120-day) of the WIND All A Index to determine the market trend[2][7] **Model Construction Process**: - Define the short-term moving average (20-day) and long-term moving average (120-day) of the WIND All A Index - Calculate the difference between the two moving averages - If the short-term moving average is above the long-term moving average and the absolute difference exceeds 3%, the market is considered to be in an upward trend - Latest data: 20-day moving average = 6668, 120-day moving average = 6245, difference = 6.78%[2][7] **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively captures the market's upward trend and provides a clear signal for timing decisions[2][7] 2. **Model Name**: Industry Trend Allocation Model **Model Construction Idea**: This model identifies industry opportunities based on medium-term reversal expectations and performance trends[6][7] **Model Construction Process**: - Use medium-term reversal expectation signals to identify industries with potential recovery, such as innovative healthcare - Apply the TWO BETA model to recommend sectors like technology, commercial aerospace, space photovoltaics, and stablecoin concepts - Use performance trend signals to highlight opportunities in semiconductors, industrial metals, and chemicals[6][7] **Model Evaluation**: The model provides actionable insights into sector allocation, focusing on industries with strong growth potential or recovery signals[6][7] 3. **Model Name**: Position Management Model **Model Construction Idea**: This model determines the recommended equity allocation based on valuation levels and market trends[8] **Model Construction Process**: - Assess the valuation levels of the WIND All A Index using PE and PB ratios - Combine valuation levels with short-term trend signals to recommend an equity allocation - Current recommendation: 80% equity allocation for absolute return products based on the WIND All A Index[8] **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a systematic approach to managing equity exposure, balancing valuation and trend considerations[8] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. **Timing System Model**: - Moving average distance: 6.78% (absolute value > 3%, indicating an upward trend)[2][7] - Profitability effect: 2.7% (positive, supporting the upward trend)[2][7] 2. **Industry Trend Allocation Model**: - Recommended sectors: Innovative healthcare, technology, commercial aerospace, space photovoltaics, stablecoin concepts, semiconductors, industrial metals, and chemicals[6][7] 3. **Position Management Model**: - Recommended equity allocation: 80%[8] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods No specific quantitative factors were explicitly mentioned in the report. The analysis primarily focuses on models rather than individual factors. --- Factor Backtesting Results No specific factor backtesting results were provided in the report. The focus remains on model-level performance and recommendations.

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [2] Core Insights - The report highlights that the pharmaceutical sector is showing resilience, with a focus on capturing opportunities from companies that can deliver on their growth potential. The report suggests that investors should continue to allocate to pharmaceutical bottom assets as fund holdings have returned to a low level [3][10] - The report indicates that the A-share funds' top ten holdings in the pharmaceutical sector account for 9.15%, a decrease of 1.93 percentage points from the previous period. Excluding pharmaceutical funds, the allocation drops to 3.43%, down 1.39 percentage points [3][10] - The report emphasizes the strong performance of certain pharmaceutical companies, particularly in innovative drugs and upstream life sciences, with notable profit growth forecasts for companies like Zhaoyan New Drug and Kangchen Pharmaceutical [3][10] Summary by Sections Market Dynamics - The pharmaceutical sector has outperformed the broader market, with a return of 6.66% compared to the CSI 300's 1.57% since the beginning of 2026, indicating a 5.10 percentage point advantage [14] - Recent performance shows a mixed trend, with pharmaceutical commercial, traditional Chinese medicine, and medical devices showing positive growth, while chemical pharmaceuticals and medical services have declined [10][14] Valuation Metrics - The current valuation of the pharmaceutical sector is at 23.3 times PE based on 2026 earnings forecasts, which is a premium of 11.3% compared to the overall A-share market (excluding financials) at approximately 21.0 times PE [17] - Using the TTM valuation method, the pharmaceutical sector is valued at 30.3 times PE, which is below its historical average of 34.9 times PE, indicating a relative premium of 11.2% over the broader market [17] Recommended Stocks - Key recommended stocks include WuXi Biologics, Sangfor Technologies, Tigermed, and others, with an average increase of 13.41% in January, outperforming the pharmaceutical sector by 6.74 percentage points [26][27] - The report notes that the top ten pharmaceutical stocks held by public funds include companies like Hengrui Medicine and WuXi AppTec, with a strong preference for innovative drugs and leading players in niche markets [3][10]

Group 1: Core Insights - The report highlights the performance of the enhanced strategy for the CSI 300 index, which achieved an excess return of 3.90% this week [1][4][18] - The "Davis Double" strategy has shown a historical annualized return of 26.45% during the backtest period from 2010 to 2017, outperforming the benchmark by 21.08% [4][9] - The "Net Profit Discontinuity" strategy focuses on stocks that show significant upward price gaps following earnings announcements, indicating market approval of earnings reports [10][11] Group 2: Davis Double Strategy - The Davis Double strategy involves buying stocks with low price-to-earnings (PE) ratios that have growth potential, aiming to sell once growth is realized and PE increases, thus achieving a "double hit" effect on earnings per share (EPS) and PE [4][7] - The strategy has generated a cumulative absolute return of 8.47% this year, with an excess return of -6.60% compared to the CSI 500 index [4][9][11] - Historical performance shows that in each of the seven complete years during the backtest, the strategy's excess returns exceeded 11%, demonstrating strong stability [4][9] Group 3: Net Profit Discontinuity Strategy - The Net Profit Discontinuity strategy combines fundamental and technical analysis to select stocks that exceed earnings expectations, focusing on those that show significant price jumps on the first trading day after earnings announcements [10][11] - This strategy has achieved an annualized return of 29.98% since 2010, with an annualized excess return of 25.89% [10][11] - The strategy's performance this year includes a cumulative absolute return of 9.53%, with an excess return of -5.54% against the benchmark [10][11] Group 4: Enhanced CSI 300 Strategy - The Enhanced CSI 300 strategy is constructed based on investor preferences, including GARP (Growth at a Reasonable Price), growth, and value investing styles [13][18] - The strategy has shown a relative excess return of 7.08% against the CSI 300 index this year, with a weekly excess return of 3.90% [18] - Historical backtesting indicates stable excess returns for the Enhanced CSI 300 strategy, reinforcing its effectiveness [18]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the performance of broad - based indexes was differentiated. The science and technology sector generally rose, with more declines on Monday and Tuesday and most sectors rising with heavy trading volume from Wednesday to Friday. The main line of science and technology is more focused and clear, and it is the sector where the consensus of funds on the liability side is concentrated and the best elastic offensive variety [4][11]. - Although broad - based ETFs continued to have net outflows this week, industry ETFs were in a net - buying state. The science and technology sector still had substantial net buying, and the inflow of funds into the non - ferrous sector was significant [5]. - The margin trading and short - selling transaction volume decreased significantly, and the margin trading and short - selling balance first decreased and then increased. The demand for hedging reflected by stock index futures weakened after Wednesday [6][9]. - Foreign capital actively participated as a right - side force in the New Year's opening market, and its participation degree even exceeded that of margin trading and short - selling. It has become a more active incremental force in the short - term market [10]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs A - share Market - **Index Performance**: This week, the performance of broad - based indexes was differentiated. The CSI 300 fell by 0.6%, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen indexes rose by 0.8% and 1.1% respectively. The CSI 500 and the micro - cap index performed well, rising by 4.3% and 5.2% respectively. The performance of technology stocks was also differentiated, with the ChiNext Index falling by 0.3%, the STAR 50 rising by 2.6%, and the CSI 1000 rising by 2.9% [14]. - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume of broad - based indexes decreased significantly. The average daily trading volume decreased from 3.5 trillion to 2.8 trillion. Specifically, the trading volume of the entire A - share market decreased from over 3 trillion from Monday to Thursday to about 2.7 trillion, and rebounded to over 3 trillion on Friday [19]. A - share Industry - **Industry Performance**: This week, the top five rising industries were building materials (8.82%), basic chemicals (6.76%), steel (5.78%), petroleum and petrochemicals (5.76%), and non - ferrous metals (4.92%). The top five falling industries were banks (- 4.07%), media (- 2.96%), communications (- 2.77%), non - bank finance (- 2.57%), and computers (- 2.52%) [26]. - **Science and Technology Sub - sectors**: Since 2026, areas such as storage, semiconductors, and HBM have had relatively large excess returns compared to the Wind All - A Index. The excess returns of commercial aerospace and optical modules, which performed well in December, have declined or even turned negative. This week, the science and technology sector generally rose, with more declines on Monday and Tuesday and most sectors rising with heavy trading volume from Wednesday to Friday [28][32]. ETF Funds - **Broad - based ETFs**: Index ETF funds continued to have large - scale net outflows, with large - cap index ETFs having more outflows. The average daily net outflow of the CSI 300 ETF was over 14 billion, the average daily net outflow of the SSE 50 ETF was 7.3 billion, and the average daily net outflow of the CSI 1000 ETF was 6.2 billion. The SSE Composite Index ETF had a slight net inflow [37]. - **Industry ETFs**: Although broad - based ETFs still had net outflows this week, industry ETFs were in a net - buying state. The non - ferrous sector had a significant pulsed inflow of funds, and the science and technology sector still had substantial net buying. Science and technology sub - sectors represented by software and satellites continued to rank high in terms of net inflow [44]. Leveraged Funds - **Margin Trading and Short - Selling Transaction Volume and Balance**: After the implementation of the new margin trading and short - selling regulations on January 19, the proportion of margin trading and short - selling transactions decreased from 11.2% to 9.9%. The margin trading and short - selling balance first decreased and then increased, with the average balance this week being about 2.72 trillion, slightly higher than last week's 2.70 trillion [49]. - **Broad - based Index Margin Trading and Short - Selling**: From Monday to Tuesday this week, except for the SSE 50 and the STAR 50, the leveraged funds of most broad - based index components had net outflows; from Wednesday to Thursday, the leveraged funds of the CSI 300, SSE Composite Index, SSE 50, and CSI 1000 index components turned into net inflows. Overall, the net inflow of index margin trading and short - selling this week was less than that of last week [54]. - **Industry Margin Trading and Short - Selling**: On Monday and Tuesday this week, most industries de - leveraged, while on Wednesday and Thursday, most industries re - leveraged. Non - bank finance, communications, transportation, and comprehensive industries had relatively large increases in the proportion of margin trading net buying to trading volume [59]. - **Stock Market Value and Margin Trading and Short - Selling**: This week, stocks of all market - value gradients added leverage, with stocks with a market value of over 500 billion adding leverage to a greater extent [61]. - **Popular Stocks and Margin Trading and Short - Selling**: Popular stocks in electronics, power equipment, national defense and military industry, and non - ferrous metals mostly added leverage, while popular stocks in the media mostly de - leveraged. The proportion of leveraged funds in the trading volume of the top 35 popular stocks decreased this week [64][68]. Quantitative Funds - **Quantitative Index Enhancement Excess Returns**: Since January, the excess returns of the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 quantitative index enhancement have fallen to negative values, with the medians being - 1.14% and - 0.07% respectively [72]. - **Stock Index Futures Basis**: This week, the basis of stock index futures declined compared to last week but still remained at a relatively high level. From Wednesday to Friday, the basis of near - month stock index futures turned into a premium, indicating a weakening of hedging demand after Wednesday [78]. Main Funds - **Broad - based Index Main Funds**: The main funds of the CSI 300, ChiNext, and STAR Market continued to have net outflows this week, but the outflow slowed down significantly compared to last week. The CSI 300 had a large - scale net outflow from Monday to Tuesday and then turned into a net inflow on Wednesday and Thursday [83]. - **Industry Main Funds**: This week, the main funds flowed out of most industries, with the largest outflows in electronics, followed by computers, communications, and power equipment. The outflows were relatively large on Monday and Tuesday. The main funds flowed into banks, building materials, and coal [91]. North - bound Funds - **Participation Degree**: Foreign capital actively participated as a right - side force in the New Year's opening market, and its participation degree even exceeded that of margin trading and short - selling. The trading volume proportion of north - bound funds increased from 11.0% before the New Year's Day to 11.8%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points, while the proportion of margin trading and short - selling only increased from 10.6% to 11.0%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points [93]. - **Trading Volume and Proportion**: This week, the total trading volume of north - bound funds decreased, with the average daily trading volume decreasing from 401.1 billion to 338.5 billion, and the proportion of A - share trading volume increasing from 11.61% to 12.10%. Since late December, the trading activity of north - bound funds has significantly rebounded [102].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Overweight", expecting a gain of more than 10% relative to the benchmark index in the next 6 - 12 months [19] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since the beginning of 2026, the A - share market style has changed from unilateral upward movement to high - frequency rotation. It is better to hold the core main line firmly than to chase the market in high - frequency rotation. The AI industry chain remains the market consensus, and the current market cooling is a "slope adjustment" rather than a "trend end" [3] - The acceleration of industry rotation is a benign spread of funds from "point" to "surface". The market is seeking a pricing balance between technology and prosperous industries [3] - The net inflow of industry ETFs has increased, showing a configuration pattern of "cycles as shields and technology as spears". It is recommended to adopt a "dumbbell - shaped" configuration strategy [3] Summary by Directory Market Focus Always on the Main Line, AI Industry Chain Remains the Consensus - From the perspective of trading volume proportion, industries such as electronics, computers, and national defense and military industry have always been at the core of the market. Even with short - term disturbances, the electronics sector's trading volume proportion remains at a high level of 17% - 20%, and that of national defense and military industry has gradually recovered, indicating strong capital stickiness [3][8] - The current market cooling is a "slope adjustment" rather than a "trend end". The high concentration of the chip structure proves that the AI industry chain is an investment main line with in - depth consensus, and high activity provides strong resilience and upward elasticity [3][8] Liquidity Spillover, the Advantage of "Technology + Prosperity" Portfolio Highlights - As the market enters the adjustment period, liquidity begins to spread from high - consensus varieties to prosperous industries with catch - up logic. When the technology main line adjusts, funds flow to industries such as chemicals, non - ferrous metals, and banks [10] - This shows that it is not the ebb of the main line but the natural spread of liquidity from "point" to "surface". The market is seeking a pricing balance between technology and prosperous industries [11] - Since the beginning of the year, some sectors have shown high weekly and year - to - date excess returns. The strategy of holding the AI bottom position and combining bull - market varieties has a higher winning rate than blind rotation [12] ETF Fund Flows: Driven by the Resilience of Prosperity and Technology - Although the broad - based ETFs are still experiencing net outflows (the weekly outflow of CSI 300ETF is 724.2 billion yuan), the industry ETFs are in a state of net buying, with a cumulative net inflow of 78.82 billion yuan [13] - There has been a significant pulsed inflow of funds into the non - ferrous sector without siphoning other sectors. The technology sector also has a large net inflow, especially software and satellite sub - industries, showing a configuration pattern of "cycles as shields and technology as spears" [14] It's Better to Be Part of the Wind Than to Chase It - The main line of this bull market is clear, with technology being the best offensive variety. It is recommended to adopt a "dumbbell - shaped" configuration and hold firmly [3][17] - One end of the "dumbbell" is the technology main line, including storage, equipment, advanced packaging, AI applications, commercial aerospace, and robots. The other end is the prosperous cyclical sectors such as non - ferrous metals and chemicals, and also pay attention to stable sectors like home appliances and transportation [3][17]

Investment Rating - Maintain "Buy" rating for the industry [6] Core Viewpoints - The commercial aerospace sector is experiencing strong momentum, with short-term fluctuations providing investment opportunities. The industry is expected to enter a period of explosive growth over the next two years, driven by technological advancements and increasing demand for launch services, satellite networking, and space computing [9][30] - The domestic large aircraft industry is expected to see a dual increase in delivery and localization rates, with key milestones in certification and international cooperation becoming critical in 2026 [15][34] Summary by Sections 1. Policy Developments - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the development of strategic emerging industries, including aerospace, and the establishment of a dedicated regulatory body for commercial aerospace [10][28] - New measures have been introduced to promote the development and utilization of satellite remote sensing data, encouraging mergers and acquisitions in the satellite data industry [10][28] 2. Technological Advancements - The successful maiden flight of the "Zhuque-3" rocket and the Long March 12 rocket marks significant progress in China's launch capabilities, with the latter achieving its mission of placing 19 low-orbit satellites into orbit [11][29][50] - The CJ-1000A engine is nearing certification, with expectations for small-scale production to begin soon [18][36] 3. Market Dynamics - The commercial aerospace sector is projected to grow significantly, with the integration of artificial intelligence and space computing driving demand for satellite manufacturing and launch services [12][32] - The upcoming Beijing International Commercial Aerospace Exhibition is expected to generate substantial procurement demand, showcasing advancements across the aerospace industry [13][32] 4. Key Companies to Watch - In the missile and military electronics sector, companies such as Hongyuan Electronics, Torch Electronics, and Huada Electronics are highlighted [24][37] - For aircraft manufacturing, focus on domestic large aircraft manufacturers like AVIC Xi'an Aircraft Industry Group and Guanglian Aviation [38][39] 5. International Competition - The global competition for space resources is intensifying, with significant developments from both China and the U.S. in satellite constellations and launch capabilities [14][33]