政策持续放松，二手房环比回暖 ——20260116 房地产行业周报 房地产 证券研究报告/行业定期报告 2026 年 01 月 25 日 | 评级： | 增持（维持） | 重点公司基本状况 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 简称 | 股价 | | | EPS | | | | | PE | | | 评级 | | 分析师：由子沛 | | | （元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | | 执业证书编号：S0740523020005 | | 保利发展 | 6.71 | 1.01 | 0.42 | 0.46 | 0.51 | 0.54 | 6.6 | 16.0 | 14.6 | 13.2 | 12.4 | 买入 | | Email：youzp@zts.com.cn | | 招商 ...

A-Share Market Insights - The A-share market saw an overall increase, with the CSI 500 and CSI 2000 leading gains at 4.34% and 4.04% respectively, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.84% and the Shenzhen Component Index by 1.11%[6] - Small-cap value and mid-cap value indices performed well, increasing by 4.43% and 4.36% respectively, while the average daily trading volume was 2.8 trillion yuan, down 19.22% week-on-week[6] - The People's Bank of China announced a 0.25 percentage point cut in relending and rediscount rates effective January 19, 2026, injecting liquidity and lowering financing costs, boosting investor confidence[6] - The first batch of 936 billion yuan in special long-term bonds for equipment upgrades has been allocated, supporting total investments exceeding 460 billion yuan, which is expected to enhance the manufacturing and emerging industries[6] Market Outlook - Despite high market activity, indications of "cooling" suggest a potential for short-term fluctuations, with sectors that have seen significant gains likely facing correction pressures[7] - Industries with improved performance and policy support, such as electricity and equipment upgrades, are expected to continue to outperform[7] Hong Kong Market Insights - The Hong Kong market experienced a downward trend, with the Hang Seng Index falling by 0.36%, the Hang Seng Tech Index by 0.42%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index by 0.65%[8] - The materials, energy, and conglomerates sectors recorded gains of 4.1%, 2.85%, and 2.32% respectively, while the information technology and healthcare sectors faced declines of 2.84% and 2.56%[8] - The market's weakness was influenced by cautious reactions to U.S. tech stocks and profit-taking pressures, alongside geopolitical risks impacting sentiment[8] Future Expectations - The Hong Kong market is expected to experience structural growth supported by expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts and a recovery in A-share sentiment, with AI demand driving tech sector performance[9] - A barbell strategy is recommended for investors, focusing on high-dividend assets to hedge against market volatility while also targeting growth-oriented tech and new consumption sectors[9] Risk Considerations - Risks include potential tightening of global liquidity beyond expectations, increased complexity in market dynamics, and unpredictable policy changes[10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Overweight", indicating an expected increase of over 10% in the industry index relative to the benchmark index over the next 6 - 12 months [25] 2. Core View of the Report - The bond market is currently in a technical buying window. Based on refined observation, trading opportunities can be grasped through the repair of term spreads and short - covering in bond - type portfolio strategies. When the trading price approaches the key point, further breakthrough requires an increase in trading volume, and attention should also be paid to changes in equity sentiment and institutional liability ends [1][21] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Bond Market May Be in a Technical Buying Window - This week, the bond market showed a recovery. As of January 23, the yields of 10Y and 30Y treasury bonds decreased by 1.26BP and 1.65BP respectively compared to last Friday. The 30Y treasury bond yield showed a greater decline on Wednesday and Friday, which was a supplementary repair lagging behind the 10Y treasury bond yield [1][5] - There may be technical trading opportunities: 1) "Short - sellers are exhausted", and there is a valuation repair due to short - covering of ultra - long treasury bonds. For example, on Tuesday (1/20), the borrowing concentration of 25 Te Guo 06 reached a record high of 31.92%, and after 25 Te Guo 02's borrowing concentration rose to a recent high, it declined on Wednesday, with securities firms leading the short - covering, driving the valuation of two 30 - year treasury bond active bonds to repair by over 2BP [7] - The "short local bonds" strategy based on supply concerns has increased recently. For example, the borrowing volume of 30 - year local bonds such as 25 Henan Bond 111 has significantly increased, and securities firms have contributed the main increase [9] - In terms of institutional behavior, large banks had a net purchase guidance for long - term bonds last week. From January 12 - 16, large banks had a cumulative net purchase of about 65 billion yuan of 7 - 10Y interest - rate bonds, and continued to increase their holdings this week, with a total net purchase of over 120 billion yuan in two weeks [11] - The duration of pure - bond funds has dropped to a low level, and there is a repair of the duration strategy space this week. On January 15, the duration of pure - bond funds dropped to the 12% historical quantile level since last year and showed a rebound near the 75% quantile (2.76 years) in the past five years [11] - The recent change in bond market trading strategies is that the bond - type portfolio strategy of "short local bonds + long treasury bonds" has replaced the term spread strategy of "short 30 - year + long 10 - year". The 30 - year treasury bond short - selling strategy is already crowded, and there is not a strong logic for further short - selling in the short term [14] 3.2 Possible "Flaws" in Local Bond Borrowing - It is uncertain whether shorting local bonds can become a common strategy in the bond market. Currently, the participation ranking is securities firms > small and medium - sized banks > large banks. Due to the lower liquidity, smaller single - bond scale, and more frequent bond - swapping operations of local bonds compared to treasury bonds, the trading is more difficult [15] - Some one - sided short positions in local bonds may lead to losses when the entire bond market rises. For example, during this week's bond market recovery, the yield of Shandong bonds decreased, although the decline of 26 Shandong 02 (5BP) was less than that of 2602 (9BP) [15] - The short - term ultra - long bond underwriting capacity is acceptable, and the supply concern at the beginning of the year may be overestimated. The issuance of ultra - long local bonds this week was stable, and the underwriting capacity mainly comes from banks with sufficient underwriting quotas at the beginning of the year and insurance companies as the current interest rate of local bonds (2.4% - 2.5%) has reached their acceptable allocation point [17] 3.3 China's Bond Market Supply - Demand Issue May Not Be Isolated - The current price repair may not mean an increase in trading volume. The bond market supply - demand contradiction remains unresolved in the medium term. In the short term, it is difficult to see a reduction in the supply of ultra - long bonds or an adjustment in the term structure. The supply of ultra - long bonds in Q1 is expected to be about 2.4 trillion yuan, not significantly less than last year [18] - If the primary issuance remains unchanged, banks may face greater pressure in underwriting. Insurance companies may find it more cost - effective to purchase ultra - long bonds from the secondary market. The incremental funds from insurance companies for ultra - long bond allocation may be insufficient [19] - The supply - demand issue has been discussed for a long time, and the bond market has taken a long time to digest it. The yield of Japanese and US bonds has also significantly adjusted this week, indicating that the supply - demand contradiction may not be a problem unique to China [21] 3.4 Specific Strategies - In the short term, attention can be paid to the change in the borrowing concentration of active bonds. The risk of one - sided shorting of local bonds is relatively high. A strategy combination can be made by combining the short - covering repair of 30 - year treasury bonds, and opportunities for the repair of term spreads that have moved quickly in the early stage can be grasped. Small - position trading can be used to maintain a competitive state. This week, funds significantly increased their holdings of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds, and short - term Tier 2 and perpetual bonds may benefit from the establishment of various fixed - income + strategies [22] - For the TL contract, the price has support at 111.5 - 112.0 yuan and a first - level pressure zone at around 112.8 yuan. If the bullish sentiment breaks through the resistance level, the next repair target may be 113.55 yuan. According to the modified duration of 25 Te Guo 06, the lower limit of the corresponding valuation yield of the 30 - year treasury bond active bond may be 2.20%. If the term spread narrows to 40BP, the lower limit of the 10 - year treasury bond yield may be around 1.80% [2][22]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Buy" [2][5] Core Views - The company is focusing on optimizing its asset structure by divesting non-core businesses, specifically the landscaping subsidiary, to enhance its core mineral water operations [3] - The mineral water business is expected to see significant growth, with projected sales increasing by 33.84% to 1.5034 million tons by 2025 [3] - The divestiture of non-core assets is anticipated to improve the overall financial health of the company and allow for more resources to be allocated to the mineral water segment [3] Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 1,198 million yuan in 2024, 1,274 million yuan in 2025, 1,450 million yuan in 2026, and 1,722 million yuan in 2027, reflecting growth rates of 7%, 6%, 14%, and 19% respectively [2][4] - The net profit is expected to turn positive in 2024 with 6 million yuan, reaching 15 million yuan in 2025, 20 million yuan in 2026, and 30 million yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 101%, 137%, 40%, and 47% respectively [2][4] - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.01 yuan in 2024, 0.02 yuan in 2025, 0.03 yuan in 2026, and 0.04 yuan in 2027 [2][4] Company Overview - The company is transitioning to focus solely on its mineral water business, which aligns with the growing consumer health consciousness and the trend towards packaged water [3] - The divestiture of the landscaping subsidiary is part of a broader strategy to streamline operations and enhance profitability in the core business [3] - The company’s market capitalization is approximately 5,986.21 million yuan, with a share price of 8.37 yuan [2]

详解基金 4Q25 银行持仓： 板块资金面整体稳健，主动基金比例小幅提升 0.04pcts 至 2.08% 评级： 增持（维持） 分析师：戴志锋 执业证书编号：S0740517030004 Email：daizf@zts.com.cn 分析师：邓美君 执业证书编号：S0740519050002 Email：dengmj@zts.com.cn 分析师：陈程 执业证书编号：S0740525110001 Email：chencheng07@zts.com.cn 基本状况 上市公司数 42 行业总市值(亿元) 143,909.38 行业流通市值(亿元) 137,804.25 行业-市场走势对比 官信贷投放改善、存款总量稳增；预 计开门红趋势延续》2026-01-16 2、《12 月金融数据前瞻： 预计新增 8.3%》2026-01-08 | 一、主动基金配置银行板块情况：主动基金持仓银行市值占比升至 2.08%，但低配比例小 | | --- | | 幅扩大 | | 二、主动基金持仓银行个股情况： 共 21 家上市银行持仓比例环比提升 . | | 三、被动基金配置银行板块及个股情况：资金整体流入银行板块，合计净流入规模 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities [6]. Core Insights - The education industry is experiencing significant expansion driven by technological changes and demographic shifts, with leading companies like New Oriental and TAL Education capitalizing on these trends [7][9]. - AI is enhancing educational efficiency and is expected to play a crucial role in the commercialization of education, with a clear path for future growth [9][90]. - The competitive landscape in AI+education is characterized by clear barriers, favoring companies with strong product capabilities and effective promotional strategies [9][90]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report highlights the dual drivers of technological transformation and demographic changes that are expanding the education market [9][14]. - New Oriental and TAL Education have successfully navigated these changes, achieving substantial revenue growth and market penetration [9][14]. Company Performance - New Oriental's revenue reached $4.28 billion in FY2021, with a 15-year CAGR of 28.9%, while its Non-GAAP net profit was $390 million, growing at a CAGR of 26.4% [9][22]. - TAL Education reported $4.5 billion in revenue for FY2021, with a 10-year CAGR of 44.8%, showcasing its effective market strategies [9][60]. AI in Education - The report emphasizes the transformative impact of AI on educational efficiency, with advancements in long-text processing and cost reduction expected to enhance teaching quality [90][95]. - The ongoing development of general-purpose AI models is anticipated to provide educational companies with tools to improve their offerings and reach [90][95]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with rich vertical data and strong product capabilities, such as Doushen Education, Rongxin Culture, and Century Tianhong, as well as those with effective customer outreach like Southern Media and New Oriental [9][90].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for major airlines including China Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, Spring Airlines, and others, while recommending "Hold" for YTO Express and Shentong Express [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights a positive outlook for the aviation sector driven by multiple factors, including the upcoming Spring Festival travel peak, the appreciation of the RMB easing cost pressures, and the increase in visa-free countries for Chinese citizens, which is expected to boost international travel demand [4][7]. - The anticipated passenger transport volume during the 2026 Spring Festival is projected to reach a historical high of 95 million, with a daily average of 2.38 million passengers, reflecting a year-on-year growth of approximately 5.3% [4]. - The report emphasizes the cyclical recovery of the civil aviation market, with expectations of rising passenger load factors and ticket prices, driven by a gradual recovery in demand and limited capacity growth [4][7]. Summary by Sections Aviation and Airports - Daily flight operations from January 19 to January 23 showed slight fluctuations, with Eastern Airlines and Southern Airlines operating 2,245.80 and 2,221.80 flights respectively, while year-on-year comparisons indicate a decrease in operations [4]. - The average aircraft utilization rates during the same period were reported, with Spring Airlines achieving the highest at 9.20 hours per day, although all airlines showed a decline compared to the previous year [4]. - The report suggests that the upcoming Spring Festival will significantly enhance market demand, particularly from student travelers, as the holiday season approaches [4][7]. Logistics and Express Delivery - The report notes a divergence in the growth rates of express delivery companies, with a total of approximately 4.073 billion packages collected from January 12 to January 18, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 11.82% [7]. - It highlights the ongoing high-quality development of the express delivery industry, with policies aimed at reducing competition ("anti-involution") expected to improve profitability [7]. - The report recommends focusing on express companies with significant profit elasticity, such as Shentong Express and YTO Express, as well as those with strong growth potential in overseas markets like Jitu Express [7]. Infrastructure - The report tracks various transportation metrics, including highway and railway freight volumes, indicating a mixed performance across sectors [7]. - It suggests that the low-interest-rate environment will continue to support investment in infrastructure, with a focus on high-quality assets [7]. - Specific recommendations include investing in highway companies like Shandong Highway and Anhui Expressway, as well as railway companies like Daqin Railway and Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway [7]. Shipping and Trade - The report indicates a mixed performance in shipping rates, with the SCFI index showing a decline of 7.39% week-on-week and a year-on-year drop of 28.73% [7]. - It emphasizes the potential for investment opportunities in oil and bulk shipping due to geopolitical factors and structural demand growth [7]. - Recommendations include focusing on companies like COSCO Shipping Energy and COSCO Shipping Holdings for oil shipping investments, as well as Hai Tong Development for bulk shipping [7].

Group 1 - The A-share market is currently experiencing a significant divergence, with major indices showing mixed performance. The Wind All A Index increased by 1.81%, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.84%, and the CSI 300 Index slightly declined by 0.62%. The small-cap index, CSI 2000, outperformed with a rise of 4.04% [2][8] - Market liquidity remains robust despite a 19.22% decrease in average daily trading volume to approximately 2.80 trillion yuan, indicating that funds have not significantly withdrawn from the market [2][8] - The market's profitability effect has notably improved, with an average of 59.84% of stocks rising during the week, a significant increase compared to the previous week [2][8] Group 2 - The divergence in the A-share market has intensified, with small-cap stocks significantly outperforming large-cap stocks, and growth stocks outperforming value stocks. The preference for high-beta and high-elasticity assets is becoming more pronounced [3][9] - The current market dynamics are driven by changes in risk appetite, liquidity conditions, adjustments in funding structures under counter-cyclical regulation, and the timing of earnings disclosures [3][10] - The risk appetite has rebounded, supported by a relatively loose liquidity environment, which has strengthened support for high-elasticity sectors. The recent appreciation of the RMB against the USD has also improved the attractiveness of Chinese assets for cross-border capital [10][13] Group 3 - Short-term market divergence is expected to continue, supported by the ongoing profitability effect in high-elasticity sectors, while the overall liquidity environment remains relatively loose [4][10] - The market is currently in a signal vacuum regarding fundamentals, lacking substantial information shocks, which allows for potential valuation increases in high-growth sectors [4][10] - The geopolitical landscape and resource security issues are also influencing the A-share market, with rising global commodity prices benefiting cyclical sectors [14][10] Group 4 - Investment strategies should adopt a segmented and dynamic approach, focusing on high-elasticity sectors such as robotics in the short term, while shifting attention to the overseas computing power industry chain as earnings expectations improve post-Spring Festival [5][15] - After the Two Sessions, there should be a gradual increase in defensive allocations, particularly in undervalued, high-dividend sectors like banking [5][15] - It is recommended to adjust portfolio structures flexibly according to the core themes of different stages, while increasing the focus on earnings realization and valuation alignment [5][15]

城商行Ⅱ | 评级： | 增持（维持） | 公司盈利预测及估值 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 分析师：戴志锋 | | 营业收入（百万元） | 35010 | 38375 | 39068 | 40875 | 44132 | | 执业证书编号：S0740517030004 | | 增长率 yoy% | 6.33% | 9.61% | 1.81% | 4.63% | 7.97% | | Email：daizf@zts.com.cn | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 14383 | 16983 | 19010 | 20984 | 23020 | | 分析师：邓美君 | | 增长率 yoy% | 23.15% | 18.08% | 11.93% | 10.39% | 9.70% | | | | 每股收益（元） | 2.36 | 2.74 | 2.62 | 2.89 | 3.18 | | 执业证书编号：S0740519050 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal industry [2][5]. Core Insights - The coal market is expected to experience a stable upward trend in prices due to a tightening supply outlook and high demand levels, particularly driven by cold weather conditions [7][8]. - The report highlights a decrease in coal inventories, with port inventories down to 26.28 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 2.71% and a year-on-year decrease of 1.22% [8]. - The daily coal consumption in 25 provinces reached 6.876 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 9.14% and a year-on-year increase of 19.42% [8]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The coal industry consists of 37 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 1,903.919 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 1,862.614 billion yuan [2][5]. 2. Price Trends - The report notes that the price of thermal coal at the port has seen fluctuations, with a recent price of 690 yuan per ton, down 10 yuan from the previous week [8]. - Coking coal prices have increased by 30 yuan per ton at the port, indicating a strong demand from steel production [8]. 3. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report indicates that domestic coal supply is stable but shows signs of marginal contraction as production halts are anticipated due to the upcoming holiday season [7][8]. - The report forecasts that coal imports may continue to decline, with a projected decrease of 11.57% in 2025 compared to 2024 [7]. 4. Company Performance Tracking - Key companies such as China Shenhua, Yancoal, and Shanxi Coking Coal are highlighted for their strong dividend policies and growth prospects, with expected dividends of 75% to 88% of distributable profits [13]. - The report emphasizes the importance of companies with strong cash flow and low valuations, recommending investments in firms like China Shenhua and Zhongmei Energy [8][13].