Report Summary - The report analyzes the investment opportunities of credit bond ETFs under market adjustments and the upcoming expansion of science and technology innovation bond ETFs, suggesting three aspects to focus on for ETF allocation [4][33]. Group 1: Market Performance and Fund Flows - Affected by the strong performance of the equity market, the benchmark - market - making credit bond ETFs and science and technology innovation bond ETFs experienced significant pull - backs since mid - July, with a median maximum pull - back of about 0.5% [4][7]. - As of August 29, the median of the reinstated unit net value of credit bond ETFs and science and technology innovation bond ETFs was 1.0088 and 0.9969 respectively [7]. - Since late July, credit bond ETFs have seen significant outflows. As of the end of August, the latest total scale was 126.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.1 billion yuan from the peak of 135.3 billion yuan on July 18, while the scale of science and technology innovation bond ETFs remained relatively stable. As of the end of August, the total scale of credit bond - related ETFs was 350.1 billion yuan, an increase of 295.9 billion yuan from the beginning of the year [4][10]. Group 2: Discount Situation of Credit Bond - Related ETFs - Due to market adjustments and the diversion of science and technology innovation bond ETFs, the scale of credit bond ETFs declined, and there were obvious discounts in the secondary market. On August 18, the discount rate reached the range of - 0.3% to - 0.6%, with a median of - 54BP. The overall scale of science and technology innovation bond ETFs was stable, but there were also obvious discounts, with a median discount rate of about - 31BP on August 18. Among other varieties, short - term financing ETFs and corporate bond ETFs performed well, while urban investment bond ETFs also had obvious discounts [4][15]. - Historically, the duration of short - term financing ETFs is around 0.3 years, and the premium and discount rate is relatively stable. During the wealth management redemption wave at the end of 2022, the maximum discount rate of corporate bond ETFs and urban investment bond ETFs reached over - 3%. In September 2024 and March 2025, the maximum discount rates were about - 0.7% and - 0.4% respectively. Currently, the discount rates of credit bond ETFs and science and technology innovation bond ETFs are relatively high, and there is some right - side trading space after the market stabilizes [4][17]. Group 3: Comparison of Component Bonds and Non - Component Bonds - Regarding credit bond ETFs, taking the yields of 4Y - AAA ChinaBond medium - short - term notes/Shanghai - listed benchmark - market - making corporate bonds as a benchmark, from July 18 to the end of August, they increased by 16BP and 16.7BP respectively. The maximum spread since June this year was 3.6BP, the median was - 0.5BP, and the current latest spread is 1.5BP, indicating that component bonds have certain cost - effectiveness [4][22]. - For science and technology innovation bonds, taking inter - bank science and technology innovation bonds/exchange - traded science and technology innovation bonds as a benchmark, from July 18 to the end of August, they increased by 16.7BP and 13.7BP respectively. The maximum spread since June this year was 11BP, the median was 8BP, and the current latest spread is 8BP. With the upcoming concentrated listing of science and technology innovation bond ETFs, there is some space for long - position in component bonds [4][24]. Group 4: Comparison of Different ETF Products - Among credit bond ETFs, for the 4 products tracking the Shanghai - listed market - making corporate bond index, the excess returns compared to the benchmark since their listing this year range from - 20BP to - 60BP. The products tracking the Shenzhen - listed market - making credit bonds have a lower duration and relatively better overall performance, with excess returns in the range of - 10BP to - 40BP [4][26]. - Among science and technology innovation bond ETFs, the products tracking the AAA science and technology innovation bond index have excess returns in the range of - 5BP to - 30BP, with durations ranging from 3 to 4.5 years. The products tracking the Shanghai AAA and Shenzhen AAA science and technology innovation bonds have excess returns of about - 20BP [4][29]. - In terms of product strategies, some products have a relatively high proportion of credit bonds with a term of 7 years and above. Recently, the credit bond yield curve has steeply increased, and long - duration bonds have performed relatively weakly [4][29]. Group 5: Investment Opportunities - From the perspective of ETFs themselves, the current high discount rate provides right - side trading opportunities after the market stabilizes to gain the discount rate repair space [4][33]. - From the perspective of component bonds, the recent relatively large adjustment of science and technology innovation bond component bonds may bring opportunities with the upcoming expansion of science and technology innovation bond products [4][33]. - Comparing specific product strategies, products with a relatively high proportion of medium - and short - term allocations have performed better recently [4][33].

执业证书编号：S0740519050002 Email：dengmj@zts.com.cn 分析师：马志豪 执业证书编号：S0740523110002 城商行Ⅱ 执业证书编号：S0740517030004 Email：daizf@zts.com.cn Email：mazh@zts.com.cn | 总股本(百万股) | 6,603.59 | | --- | --- | | 流通股本(百万股) | 6,599.89 | | 市价(元) | 28.22 | | 市值(百万元) | 186,353.33 | | 流通市值(百万元) | 186,248.82 | 2025-02-06 2024-08-31 详解宁波银行 2025 中报： 营收利润增速提升，资产质量稳健 宁波银行（002142.SZ） 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2025 年 09 月 01 日 | 评级： | 增持（维持） | 公司盈利预测及估值 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E ...

股份制银行Ⅱ 执业证书编号：S0740517030004 Email：daizf@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740519050002 Email：dengmj@zts.com.cn 量改善，分红比例提升》2025-04-01 详解中信银行 2025 中报： 营收利润增速边际向好，分红比例继续提升 分析师：马志豪 执业证书编号：S0740523110002 Email：mazh@zts.com.cn | 总股本(百万股) | 55,645.16 | | --- | --- | | 流通股本(百万股) | 55,645.16 | | 市价(元) | 7.90 | | 市值(百万元) | 439,596.78 | | 流通市值(百万元) | 439,596.78 | 股价与行业-市场走势对比 中信银行（601998.SH） 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2025 年 09 月 01 日 | 评级： | 增持（维持） | 公司盈利预测及估值 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 | 2023A | 20 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company has established itself as a leading player in the bulldozer market, holding a domestic market share of 67.2% in 2023 and ranking among the top five global manufacturers [6][11] - The company is transitioning from a domestic leader to a global competitor, with overseas revenue expected to exceed 50% for the first time in 2024 [6][11] - The financial outlook is positive, with projected revenue growth and profitability driven by strong overseas demand and cost control measures [4][37] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, originally founded as Yantai Machinery Factory in 1952, has evolved into a leading bulldozer manufacturer, achieving continuous domestic sales leadership for 19 years [11] - The company is now part of Shandong Heavy Industry Group, enhancing its competitive position [11] Financial Analysis - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 14,219 million yuan in 2024, a 35% increase year-over-year, and a net profit of 1,102 million yuan, reflecting a 44% increase [4][37] - The overseas revenue reached 74.11 billion yuan in 2024, accounting for 52.12% of total revenue, indicating a significant shift towards international markets [37] Industry Overview - The global bulldozer market is highly concentrated, with the top five manufacturers holding over 80% of the market share [6][50] - The demand for large horsepower bulldozers is primarily driven by mining and infrastructure projects, with a projected market growth rate of 2.7% from 2025 to 2031 [50][54] Product and Market Strategy - The company has diversified its product offerings, including electric and large-capacity machinery, to meet evolving market demands [19][52] - The integration of excavators and loaders into the product line is expected to enhance market presence and revenue streams [19][56] Profitability and Cost Management - The company's gross margin improved to 20.05% in 2024, driven by higher contributions from overseas markets and premium products [40] - Cost control measures are projected to save 5.2 billion yuan in 2025, further enhancing profitability [39][40] Global Expansion - The company plans to issue H shares and establish subsidiaries in key international markets, aiming for 9 billion yuan in overseas revenue by 2025 [35][37]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [3][4][8] Core Views - Anta Sports reported a mid-year revenue of 38.544 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.3%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 7.031 billion yuan, up 14.5% year-on-year, aligning with expectations [4] - The main brand of Anta achieved a revenue of 16.95 billion yuan, growing by 5.4% year-on-year, while the FILA brand generated 14.18 billion yuan, increasing by 8.6% year-on-year. Other brands saw a significant revenue increase of 61.1% [4] - The company is expanding its global presence, having completed the acquisition of the German outdoor brand Jack Wolfskin and established a joint venture with MUSINSA to enhance its fashion business in South Korea [4] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue Forecast: - 2023A: 62.356 billion yuan - 2024A: 70.826 billion yuan (growth rate: 16%) - 2025E: 79.199 billion yuan (growth rate: 12%) - 2026E: 87.632 billion yuan (growth rate: 11%) - 2027E: 96.254 billion yuan (growth rate: 10%) [3][4] - Net Profit Forecast: - 2023A: 10.236 billion yuan - 2024A: 15.596 billion yuan (growth rate: 35%) - 2025E: 13.906 billion yuan (growth rate: -11%) - 2026E: 15.539 billion yuan (growth rate: 12%) - 2027E: 17.327 billion yuan (growth rate: 12%) [3][4] - Earnings Per Share (EPS): - 2023A: 3.65 yuan - 2024A: 5.56 yuan - 2025E: 4.95 yuan - 2026E: 5.54 yuan - 2027E: 6.17 yuan [3][4] - Return on Equity (ROE): - 2023A: 24% - 2024A: 28% - 2025E: 20% - 2026E: 19% - 2027E: 17% [3][4] - Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio: - 2023A: 23.9 - 2024A: 15.7 - 2025E: 17.6 - 2026E: 15.7 - 2027E: 14.1 [3][4] - Price-to-Book (P/B) Ratio: - 2023A: 4.8 - 2024A: 4.0 - 2025E: 3.2 - 2026E: 2.7 - 2027E: 2.3 [3][4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative performance increase of over 15% against the benchmark index in the next 6 to 12 months [9] Core Views - The company has demonstrated robust revenue growth and improved profit margins, driven by global expansion and a dual focus on automotive and robotics sectors [1][3] - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with revenue reaching 3.05 billion yuan, up 6.16% year-on-year, and net profit at 573 million yuan, up 27.42% year-on-year [2] - The report highlights the company's strategic overseas capacity expansion, new product development, and high capacity utilization as key drivers of growth [4][6] Revenue and Profitability - The company achieved a revenue of 5,957 million yuan in 2023, with projected growth rates of 40% in 2023, 13% in 2024, and 18% in 2025 [1] - The net profit for 2023 is forecasted at 913 million yuan, with expected growth rates of 41% in 2023, 3% in 2024, and 28% in 2025 [1] - The gross margin for the first half of 2025 was reported at 29.25%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.57 percentage points [2] Strategic Initiatives - The company is expanding its production capacity in North America and Europe, with new facilities in Mexico and Malaysia, which are expected to enhance market responsiveness and customer loyalty [4][6] - The company is actively developing over 400 new products annually, with an anticipated total sales revenue of no less than 10 billion yuan over their lifecycle [4] - The acquisition of a 71% stake in Zhuolibo, a micro-motor company, is expected to enhance revenue and profit, with projected net profits of 142 million yuan, 157 million yuan, and 174 million yuan from 2025 to 2027 [6] Financial Projections - The company’s revenue is projected to reach 7,962 million yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 18%, and net profit is expected to be 1,204 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 28% [1][6] - The report anticipates continued improvements in gross margins and potential foreign exchange gains, contributing to overall profitability [6]

保险Ⅱ 新华保险 1H25 业绩点评： 投资利差大幅改善带动净利润超预期增长 新华保险（601336.SH） 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2025 年 08 月 29 日 | 评级： | 买入（维持） | 公司盈利预测及估值 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 8,712 | 26,233 | 20,173 | 21,399 | 23,374 | | 分析师：葛玉翔 | | 增长率 yoy% | -59.5% | 201.1% | -23.1% | 6.1% | 9.2% | | 执业证书编号：S0740525040002 | | 每股收益（元） | 2.79 | 8.41 | 6.47 | 6.86 | 7.49 | | | | 每股净资产 | 33.68 | 30.85 | 33.69 | 38.90 | 44.64 | | Email：geyx01@zts.com.cn | | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][8] Core Views - The company has shown a steady performance with a revenue of 1.921 billion and a net profit of 141 million in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.40% in revenue but a decline of 3.38% in net profit [5] - The implementation of the "Good Bedding, Choose Mercury" strategy and the focus on big product strategies have significantly contributed to sales growth, particularly in the ergonomic pillow and ice silk quilt categories [5] - The company is expected to benefit from the continuation of the home textile subsidy policy in various regions, including Shanghai and Jiangsu [5] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 4,211 million, with a growth rate of 15% year-on-year, while the net profit is expected to be 379 million, reflecting a growth rate of 36% [2] - For 2024, revenue is forecasted to be 4,193 million with a 0% growth rate, and net profit is expected to decline to 367 million, a decrease of 3% [2] - The company anticipates a gradual increase in revenue and net profit in the following years, with projections of 4,423 million and 376 million for 2025, respectively [2] Key Financial Metrics - The gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 43.88%, an increase of 2.01 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to product structure optimization and successful big product strategies [5] - The sales expense ratio increased to 29.45%, up 3.84 percentage points year-on-year, due to increased investment in new product development and marketing innovation [5] - The company’s cash flow from operating activities turned negative at -67 million, primarily due to increased payments for goods and operating expenses [5] Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain its leadership position in the home textile industry, with anticipated net profits of 376 million, 409 million, and 434 million for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [5] - The online business is seen as a significant growth driver, while the offline business is improving in operational efficiency and penetration [5] - The overall industry demand is expected to recover, benefiting the leading companies in the sector [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][5] Core Views - The company's performance in H1 2025 met expectations, with a revenue of 19.113 billion yuan, down 6.87% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.78 billion yuan, up 1.26% year-on-year [4] - The company is gradually increasing its overseas revenue, with foreign sales reaching 640 million yuan, up 71.89% year-on-year [4] - The report highlights the company's integrated advantages in pulp and paper production, with significant new capacity planned to support long-term growth [4][5] Financial Summary - For 2023, the company is projected to have a revenue of 39.544 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of -1% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 is expected to be 3.086 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 10% [2] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 is estimated at 1.10 yuan [2] - The company plans to expand its production capacity significantly, with several new projects expected to come online between 2025 and 2026 [4] - The projected net profit for 2025 is 3.101 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 1% [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [3][9] Core Views - The company has demonstrated high revenue growth and improved profitability, with a revenue of 9.29 billion and a net profit of 610 million for the first half of 2025, representing year-on-year growth of 6.1% and 22.6% respectively [4][6] - The company is focusing on enhancing its operational efficiency and cost control, leading to an increase in overall profitability [6][9] - The company is expanding its managed area while optimizing its project reserves, with a managed area of 536 million square meters, an increase of 11.3% year-on-year [8][9] Financial Performance - The company’s revenue projections for 2023A to 2027E are as follows: 17,411 million, 18,528 million, 19,695 million, 21,469 million, and 23,189 million respectively, with growth rates of 17%, 6%, 6%, 9%, and 8% [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to grow from 605 million in 2023A to 1,241 million in 2027E, with year-on-year growth rates of 11%, 30%, 18%, 16%, and 15% [3] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is expected to increase from 0.19 in 2023A to 0.39 in 2027E [3] Shareholder Returns - The company has repurchased 17.17 million shares for approximately 64.95 million HKD, which is expected to enhance earnings per share and boost shareholder confidence [9]