Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [6] Core Insights - The commercial aerospace sector is entering a high prosperity cycle, with significant growth expected in the next two years due to technological advancements and increased demand for launch services and satellite networks [9][24] - The domestic large aircraft sector is poised for dual improvements in airline deliveries and localization rates, particularly with the C919 and C909 aircraft [13][28] Summary by Sections Commercial Aerospace - The global commercial aerospace industry is expected to experience an explosive growth phase, driven by rapid technological iterations and engineering advancements [9] - Policy initiatives, such as the establishment of the Commercial Aerospace Administration, aim to enhance the industry's development and regulatory framework [25] - Technological breakthroughs, including successful launches of new rocket models, are providing a solid foundation for commercial space missions [26] - The integration of artificial intelligence with commercial aerospace is creating new business opportunities, particularly in "space computing" [33] Domestic Large Aircraft - The C919 aircraft is projected to deliver 25 units in 2026, with efforts to expand its international market presence [13][28] - The CJ-1000A engine is undergoing certification processes to enhance the domestic aviation industry's self-sufficiency [14][28] - The C919 highland version has successfully completed its first assembly, marking a significant milestone in the development of domestic large aircraft [35] Key Sector Dynamics - In the aerospace equipment sector, Blue Arrow Aerospace has signed contracts to provide batch launch services for satellite internet projects [38] - The low-altitude economy is advancing with the AS700 manned airship receiving production licenses and completing its first delivery [41] - The nuclear equipment sector has achieved breakthroughs in fusion technology, indicating progress in high-density operations [42] Market Overview - The defense and military industry index has seen a significant increase of 13.63%, outperforming other major indices [46] - The current price-to-earnings ratio (PE) for the defense and military sector stands at 89.4, with various sub-sectors showing high valuation metrics [53]

- The report introduces a **market timing system** based on the distance between the short-term moving average (20-day) and the long-term moving average (120-day) of the WIND All A Index. The system identifies market trends by observing whether the short-term moving average is above the long-term moving average and the absolute difference exceeds 3%. The latest data shows the 20-day moving average at 6394 and the 120-day moving average at 6142, with a difference of 4.10%, indicating an upward trend[6][11]. - The **profitability effect** is used as a core indicator to assess market conditions. The current profitability effect is 5.28%, which is significantly positive, suggesting that the market is likely to continue its upward trend[6][11]. - The **industry trend allocation model** highlights sectors with strong upward trends, including AI applications, commercial aerospace, computing power, industrial metals, and energy storage. Additionally, the **mid-term reversal expectation model** signals opportunities in media and innovative healthcare sectors[6][11]. - The **TWO BETA model** recommends focusing on technology sectors, particularly AI applications and commercial aerospace[6][11]. - The **valuation metrics** for the WIND All A Index show that the PE ratio is near the 90th percentile, indicating a relatively high valuation, while the PB ratio is at the 50th percentile, reflecting a moderate valuation level. Based on these metrics and the market trend, the allocation model suggests an 80% equity position for absolute return products[7][11]. - Backtesting results for the market timing system show that the WIND All A Index increased by 5.11% over the past week, with small-cap stocks (CSI 1000) rising by 7.03%, mid-cap stocks (CSI 500) by 7.92%, and large-cap indices (HS300 and SSE50) by 2.79% and 3.4%, respectively. Sector-wise, defense and media performed strongly, with defense rising by 14.56%, while banking and transportation lagged, with banking declining by 1.88%[2][5][6].

Core Insights - The report highlights the "Net Profit Discontinuity Strategy" which achieved an absolute return of 67.17% in 2025 and a 4.51% return in the current year [2][10] - The "Davis Double-Click Strategy" has shown a historical annualized return of 26.45% from 2010 to 2017, outperforming the benchmark by 21.08% [3][7] - The "Enhanced CSI 300 Portfolio" is constructed based on investor preferences and has demonstrated stable excess returns over time, with a current year excess return of 0.84% relative to the CSI 300 index [12][17] Group 1: Davis Double-Click Strategy - The Davis Double-Click Strategy involves buying stocks with low price-to-earnings (PE) ratios that have growth potential, aiming for a multiplier effect when growth is realized [3][6] - Historical performance from 2010 to 2017 shows that the strategy consistently generated excess returns exceeding 11% annually [7] - As of January 9, 2026, the strategy has yielded a cumulative absolute return of 3.09%, underperforming the CSI 500 index by 4.83% [7][10] Group 2: Net Profit Discontinuity Strategy - The Net Profit Discontinuity Strategy focuses on stocks that show significant upward price gaps on the first trading day after earnings announcements, indicating market approval of earnings surprises [9][10] - The strategy has achieved an annualized return of 29.60% since 2010, with a current year absolute return of 4.51% [10][11] - The strategy's performance includes a notable 67.17% return in 2025, showcasing its effectiveness in capturing post-earnings announcement momentum [10][11] Group 3: Enhanced CSI 300 Portfolio - The Enhanced CSI 300 Portfolio is built on factors reflecting investor preferences, including GARP (Growth at a Reasonable Price), growth, and value investing styles [12][17] - The portfolio aims to identify undervalued stocks with strong profitability and stable growth potential, utilizing PB/ROE and PE growth metrics [12][17] - The current year performance indicates an excess return of 0.84% relative to the CSI 300 index, demonstrating the strategy's effectiveness in a fluctuating market [17]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate sector [1] Core Insights - The real estate sector is experiencing a significant decline in sales, with a notable drop in both new and second-hand housing transactions across major cities [4][37] - Recent government policies, such as talent attraction initiatives in Nanjing and housing loan optimizations in Shenyang, aim to stimulate demand in the real estate market [6][13] - The overall market performance shows a rebound, with the Shenwan Real Estate Index increasing by 5.07%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index [3][11] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - The Shenwan Real Estate Index rose by 5.07%, while the CSI 300 Index increased by 2.79%, indicating a relative outperformance of 2.29% [3][11] 2. Industry Fundamentals - For the week of January 2-8, the total number of new homes sold in 38 key cities was 19,373 units, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 31.1% and a month-on-month decrease of 58.6% [4][21] - The total area sold was 178.5 million square meters, with a year-on-year decrease of 39.8% and a month-on-month decrease of 64.5% [4][21] - In the same week, the total number of second-hand homes sold in 16 key cities was 16,210 units, down 21% year-on-year and 6.9% month-on-month [37][40] 3. Land Market Supply and Transactions - During the week, land supply reached 2,258.2 million square meters, with a year-on-year increase of 25.3% [5] - However, land transactions fell sharply, with a total area of 2,488.6 million square meters sold, down 62.2% year-on-year [5] 4. Financing Analysis - Real estate companies issued a total of 3.53 billion yuan in credit bonds, marking a year-on-year decrease of 57.67% but a month-on-month increase of 411.59% [5] 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on financially stable leading real estate companies such as Poly Developments, China Merchants Shekou, and Yuexiu Property, which are expected to navigate market fluctuations effectively [6] - Property management companies like China Resources Mixc Life and Poly Property are also highlighted as potential beneficiaries of market recovery [6]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Overweight", expecting a gain of over 10% relative to the benchmark index in the next 6 - 12 months [42] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - At the beginning of the year, there was a significant divergence in the stock and bond markets, with equities having a "good start" and the bond market facing a "poor start". The "seasonal pattern" of the bond market has shifted to the equity market due to the maturity of various deposit - type institutions' funds from the end of the previous year to the end of the current year. The core driver of the A - share market has fundamentally changed, with the storage industry chain's market value surpassing that of the real estate industry chain. The economic elasticity is now driven by the technology cycle, which determines the new pricing benchmark for long - term interest rates. The bond market's core contradiction is the structural imbalance between supply and demand [2][4][7][10][13] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Seasonal Pattern Shift - The "seasonal pattern" of the bond market has shifted to the equity market. It's estimated that about 67 trillion and 75 trillion of household time deposits will mature in 2025 and 2026 respectively. Even if only 10% of the funds are reallocated, it will amount to trillions. These funds mainly flow into "fixed - income plus" wealth management products and dividend - type insurance, which intensifies the capital outflow pressure in the bond market [8][10] 3.2 Change in A - share Market Core Driver - Ten years ago (in 2015), the market value of the real estate industry chain was four times that of the storage industry chain. Currently, the market value of the storage industry chain is three times that of the real estate chain. The core indicator for measuring the A - share fundamentals and the Chinese economic cycle has changed from real estate prices to storage chip prices represented by memory. The technology expansion has brought "re - inflation" pressure, and the real estate's contribution to GDP fluctuations has approached zero [10][13] 3.3 Bond Market Supply - Demand Imbalance - The medium - to - long - term supply - demand issues in the bond market have gradually evolved into a systematic framework. There are two main paths: rising equities lead to falling bonds, causing the withdrawal of trading funds with unstable liabilities and the over - limit of banks' EVE indicators after long - term bonds are returned to the balance sheet; and rising equities lead insurance institutions to rebalance towards more stocks and fewer bonds, reducing the demand for long - term bonds. Assuming the treasury bond issuance structure is determined by "stable growth" plans and the proportion of ultra - long - term bonds remains unchanged, the supply and demand of long - term bonds will face an annual - level "imbalance" [16][17] 3.4 Adjustment of Local Bond Maturity - The main pressure in the bond market comes from the issuance inertia of ultra - long - term government bonds. Although there were expectations for the Ministry of Finance to shorten the issuance maturity, the issuance of 30 - year special bonds in Shandong Province in January 2024 somewhat dashed these expectations. General treasury bonds and general local bonds have relatively short maturities with limited compression space. Special bonds and special treasury bonds can effectively shorten the duration, but local governments are less willing to shorten their issuance maturities. Fiscal adjustment may have a strong lag, possibly going through three steps: issuance difficulties with the cost spread exceeding 35BP for several months, seeking policy support from the central bank to buy bonds, and finally being forced to adjust the issuance maturity if support is insufficient [19][20][21] 3.5 Shortening of Insurance Asset Duration - Insurance institutions' liability side has fundamentally changed. To compete for household savings, insurance companies have widely promoted dividend - type insurance to replace traditional life insurance. The average liability duration of dividend - type insurance is only 5 - 7 years. To achieve the promised high returns (about 3.4% - 3.5%), their asset allocation is more aggressive and more inclined to equity assets, and they need less ultra - long - term bonds. Insurance's demand for long - term bonds is shifting from "allocation - based" to "trading - based". In an environment of rising interest rate expectations, insurance institutions will postpone the allocation rhythm. The growth of insurance premiums does not match the supply of ultra - long - term bonds [28][29][30] 3.6 Banks Facing Regulatory Constraints - After banks承接 the long - term bonds sold by public funds and other institutions, the scale of their interest - rate - sensitive assets has increased significantly, causing the EVE indicator to approach or exceed the 15% regulatory red line. In 2026, reducing the shock scenario from 250bps to 225bps will release about 700 billion of EVE allocation space, which is far from enough for the large - scale new supply in the primary market. Due to regulatory requirements on the duration of assets included in the AC account, banks cannot place a large number of newly purchased ultra - long - term bonds in the AC account, further reducing their allocation willingness. The over - limit of the liquidity coverage ratio (LCR) indicator further restricts the buying space [35][36][37] 3.7 Abandoning "Bull - Market Thinking" - In the current non - bullish bond market situation, typical "bull - market thinking" such as absolute interest rate point thinking, the inertial behavior of allocation - based investors, and the "fear of missing out" mentality should be abandoned. Strategies suggest separating the low - duration core position from the trading position. The overall portfolio duration of the core position should be maintained at a moderately low level, mainly allocating short - term, high - liquidity credit bonds or certificates of deposit. The trading position can use a small amount of funds for short - term trading based on oversold rebounds or market sentiment, with strict profit - taking and stop - loss rules. "Less trading" or "no trading" is also a good strategy [38][39] 3.8 Conditions for Bear - to - Bull Transition - The real bear - to - bull transition in the bond market requires two key policy signals: the Ministry of Finance clearly shortening the issuance maturity of special bonds or special treasury bonds in the issuance announcement, and the central bank announcing or implementing a bond - buying program far exceeding the current scale [40]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several key companies in the coal industry, including Shanxi Coking Coal, Lu'an Mining, Yancoal Energy, China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and others [5]. Core Views - The coal market is expected to see strong marginal improvements in supply and demand, leading to a stabilization and potential increase in coal prices. The report anticipates that coal prices will continue to rise due to high electricity demand during the cold weather and a reduction in port inventories [6][8]. - The demand side remains resilient, with non-electric demand and electricity demand both expected to maintain high levels. The report highlights that steel production and chemical industry coal consumption are driving this demand [8]. - On the supply side, there are expectations of reduced coal production due to regulatory changes and potential capacity cuts in key mining regions, which could further tighten supply [8]. - The report suggests that investors should consider low-entry opportunities in the coal sector, focusing on companies with strong dividend yields and low valuations, as well as those with significant production capacity growth [8]. Summary by Sections 1. Core Views and Operational Tracking - The report emphasizes the importance of dividend policies and growth prospects for listed companies in the coal sector, indicating a focus on stable earnings and potential for future growth [12][14]. 2. Coal Price Tracking - The report provides detailed tracking of coal prices, including indices for thermal coal and coking coal, highlighting recent price movements and trends in both domestic and international markets [9][10]. 3. Coal Inventory Tracking - There is a focus on coal production levels and inventory status, with recent data showing a decrease in port coal inventories, indicating improved supply-demand dynamics [8][10]. 4. Downstream Performance in the Coal Industry - The report tracks downstream consumption patterns, including daily coal usage by power plants and trends in steel and cement prices, which are critical for understanding overall coal demand [9][10]. 5. Recent Performance of the Coal Sector and Individual Stocks - The report analyzes the recent performance of the coal sector, noting fluctuations in stock prices and market sentiment, while also providing forecasts for key companies [8][10].

Group 1: A-Share Market - The A-share market showed strong performance this week, with significant increases in trading activity. The CSI 500, CSI 1000, and CSI 2000 indices rose by 7.92%, 7.03%, and 6.54% respectively, indicating a strong performance of small-cap stocks [3][7] - The market's upward trend was driven by increased risk appetite, with technology innovation sectors such as brain-computer interfaces, commercial aerospace, and AI applications becoming the main focus. Industries like electronics, computers, and defense received substantial capital inflows [5][7] - The average daily trading volume reached 2.85 trillion, a significant increase of 35.68% compared to the previous period [3][7] - The outlook for the A-share market remains positive, with expectations of continued upward momentum in the short term, particularly in the first quarter, driven by macroeconomic improvements and favorable policies [8] Group 2: Hong Kong Market - The Hong Kong market exhibited a weaker overall performance this week, with major indices such as the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, Hang Seng Technology Index, and Hang Seng Index declining by 1.31%, 0.86%, and 0.41% respectively [9] - Despite the overall decline, there was structural differentiation within the market, with the healthcare sector leading gains at 10.06%, while telecommunications, information technology, and energy sectors underperformed [9] - The geopolitical situation, particularly U.S.-China relations, has influenced market sentiment, with recent announcements regarding increased U.S. defense spending impacting risk appetite [9] - Future expectations for the Hong Kong market suggest a potential recovery in the technology sector, influenced by the rising sentiment in the A-share technology sector and domestic economic recovery [9]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the energy storage and lithium battery materials industry, highlighting significant growth potential and recovery in profitability [2]. Core Insights - The energy storage battery segment is expected to lead market growth, with global shipments projected to reach 874 GWh by 2026, representing a 46% year-on-year increase. The demand for lithium iron phosphate batteries is anticipated to strengthen, increasing its market share to 82% [3][18]. - The supply-demand dynamics for key lithium battery materials are set to improve overall, with lithium hexafluorophosphate and separators experiencing a clear recovery in supply-demand balance, while lithium iron phosphate and related materials are in a mild recovery phase [4][52]. - The lithium carbonate industry is projected to reach a critical supply-demand inflection point by 2027-2028, with demand expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 18% from 2025 to 2028 [8]. - The solid-state battery materials sector is entering a phase of technological breakthroughs, with significant advancements expected in commercial viability and material innovation [9]. Summary by Sections Downstream Battery Segment - Energy storage batteries are projected to be the main growth driver, with global shipments expected to reach 874 GWh in 2026, a 46% increase year-on-year. The source-side energy storage is anticipated to contribute significantly to this growth [3][10]. - The total shipments of power and energy storage batteries are expected to reach 2313 GWh by 2026, reflecting a 25% year-on-year growth [18]. Key Lithium Battery Materials - The supply-demand balance for lithium hexafluorophosphate is expected to improve, with prices projected to rise due to increased demand and supply constraints [4][25]. - The separator industry is transitioning from oversupply to a tight balance, with demand growth expected to outpace supply growth significantly [4][52]. Lithium Carbonate Industry - Global lithium carbonate demand is projected to reach 188,000 tons LCE by 2026, with a significant drop in supply growth anticipated in 2027 [8]. Solid-State Battery Materials - The solid-state battery sector is expected to see breakthroughs in technology, with a focus on addressing key engineering challenges for commercialization [9]. Phosphate Mining and Lithium Iron Phosphate - The phosphate mining sector is expected to maintain high demand, driven by both traditional agricultural needs and new energy applications, with a projected increase in demand for phosphate rock [7][60].

Group 1: CPI and PPI Trends - In December 2025, China's CPI increased from 0.7% to 0.8% month-on-month, while PPI rose from -2.2% to -1.9% year-on-year[2] - The CPI reached a new high since February 2023, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, consistent with the seasonal average of the past three years[2] - Among eight categories, only transportation and communication, and other goods and services showed significant month-on-month increases, at 0.0% and 2.8% respectively[2] Group 2: Factors Influencing CPI - The rise in transportation costs is attributed to constraints on price reductions in the automotive industry due to anti-involution measures[2] - Subsidies for "old-for-new" vehicle exchanges and corporate subsidies may have led to an overestimation of transportation costs in the CPI[2] - The decline in oil prices has narrowed, with transportation fuel costs showing a month-on-month decrease of -1.1%, compared to a three-year average of -3.6%[2] Group 3: Other Notable Increases - The category of other goods and services saw a month-on-month increase of 2.8%, significantly higher than the three-year average of 0.2%[2] - The year-on-year increase for this category was 17.4%, driven primarily by rising prices of precious metals[2] - The household appliances category experienced a year-on-year increase of 5.9%, indicating a discrepancy between consumer perception and actual price data due to subsidies[2] Group 4: PPI Insights and Future Outlook - The transmission of upstream price increases to downstream consumer goods remains weak, with downstream living goods showing zero month-on-month change for several months[2] - The coal mining and washing industry reported a year-on-year decline of -15.7%, the only major industrial sector with a double-digit drop[2] - Looking ahead, CPI is expected to decline significantly in January 2026 due to the Spring Festival effect, but may return to above 1% thereafter[2]

12 月美国 ADP 就业止跌企稳 ——点评就业高频数据 证券研究报告/宏观事件点评报告 2026 年 01 月 09 日 | 分析师：杨畅 | 报告摘要 | | --- | --- | | 执业证书编号：S0740519090004 Email：yangchang@zts.com.cn | 月 私人就业数据、挑战者企业裁员人数、周度失业金数据在美国当地  事件：12 ADP 时间 月 日公布。 1 7 日-8 主要观点：  | | 分析师：夏知非 | 综合 ADP、挑战者裁员和周度失业金三项数据来看，近期美国就业市场呈现出止跌企 | | 执业证书编号：S0740523110007 | 稳、结构仍分化的特征，或将共同强化 月非农就业的增长预期，排除就业市场急 12 | | | 剧恶化风险。 | | Email：xiazf01@zts.com.cn | | 相关报告 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 风险提示：海外政策波动风险；海外经济波动风险；研报信息更新不及时风险。 1. 12 月美国 ADP 就业止跌企稳 | | 1. 12 月美国 ADP 就业止跌企稳 . | | --- | --- | | C | ...