Group 1 - The core driver of the current A-share market is a systematic increase in risk appetite, stemming from a profound "reconstruction" of the global landscape, influenced by the U.S.-China rivalry and the shift towards a "China model" focusing on supply chain security, technology, manufacturing, and military industries [3] - The "Fifteen Five" strategy emphasizes proactive policy measures and strategic opportunities, contrasting with the previous "Fourteen Five" period, indicating a stronger focus on national strength and institutional expectations in capital market pricing [3][4] - The capital market is expected to play a crucial role in managing expectations and addressing local government debt risks, with a projected "slow bull" market characterized by steady index growth and accelerated market rotation [4] Group 2 - Key time points for the U.S. Federal Reserve and U.S.-China relations include potential policy shifts following the mid-2026 Federal Reserve chair transition and significant diplomatic engagements, which could influence market risk appetite [4] - The 2026 market is anticipated to experience structural rotation, driven by the global reconstruction and the initiation of the "Fifteen Five" plan, with a shift in capital market pricing logic from short-term profits to long-term national strength and institutional expectations [6][7] - The report identifies four main investment themes for 2026: technology innovation focusing on AI, upstream resource strategic positioning, new consumption opportunities, and safe asset allocations amid geopolitical uncertainties [8][9]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for the stock over the next 6 to 12 months [2][86]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leading player in the express delivery sector, focusing on both volume and quality to achieve sustainable growth. It has a strong market share and is expected to strengthen its competitive edge further [6][10]. - The company has made significant investments in infrastructure, with cumulative capital expenditures exceeding 57 billion yuan from 2016 to Q3 2025, which is notably higher than its peers in the industry [6][24]. - The company has achieved a package volume of approximately 95.7 billion items in Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.8% and maintaining a market share of about 19.4% [6][36]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue is projected to grow steadily, with expected revenues of 49.05 billion yuan in 2025, 53.58 billion yuan in 2026, and 58.74 billion yuan in 2027, representing growth rates of 10.8%, 9.2%, and 9.6% respectively [2][86]. - The net profit for 2025 is forecasted to be 9.06 billion yuan, with earnings per share expected to reach 11.26 yuan [2][86]. - The company has maintained a strong return on equity (ROE) of around 14% and is expected to improve its profitability metrics over the coming years [2][86]. Operational Efficiency - The company has implemented a "Same Building, Shared Development" strategy, enhancing collaboration with network partners and converting them into shareholders to achieve mutual benefits [10][14]. - The company has invested heavily in automation and technology, leading to a reduction in per-package sorting costs to 0.25 yuan, while transportation costs have decreased to 0.34 yuan per package [6][56]. - The company operates the largest self-owned trunk transportation fleet within its peer group, consisting of over 10,000 vehicles, which enhances its operational efficiency [6][50]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has successfully transitioned from a price competition model to a value competition model, focusing on service quality and customer satisfaction [6][76]. - The company has a robust network of over 31,000 collection and delivery points and more than 100,000 end stations, which supports its extensive logistics operations [6][70]. - The company is expected to continue capturing market share, with a projected package volume of 382 to 387 billion items for the full year, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.3% to 13.8% [6][38].

Group 1 - The core driver of the current A-share market is the systematic increase in risk appetite, stemming from a profound "reconstruction" of the global landscape [6][29][37] - The ongoing geopolitical competition and the shift in national power dynamics have elevated the strategic position of capital markets, reflecting long-term expectations of national strength and institutional stability rather than short-term profit fluctuations [7][41][43] Group 2 - The report identifies two key time points in 2026 regarding the Federal Reserve and US-China relations, which will significantly influence market dynamics [8][10][62] - The potential change in the Federal Reserve's leadership could lead to a more dovish monetary policy, impacting global liquidity and risk appetite in emerging markets, including A-shares [10][60][61] Group 3 - The capital market is expected to play a crucial role in "debt management" and "expectation management," with a focus on stabilizing local government debt risks through asset securitization [12][46] - The market is anticipated to exhibit a "slow bull" characteristic, with accelerated rotation and the importance of retail investor sentiment as a contrarian indicator [12][46] Group 4 - The report emphasizes the significance of the AI industry, particularly in storage chips and humanoid robots, as key areas for investment due to their strategic importance in the AI era [20][22] - The focus on "反内卷" (anti-involution) will benefit upstream resources critical to national competitiveness, such as lithium and graphite materials, which are expected to see increased demand [22][23] Group 5 - The new consumption trends among younger generations are highlighted as structural opportunities, with sectors like gaming and pet products poised for growth [23] - The report suggests that safety asset allocations, such as high-dividend stocks and gold, will become increasingly attractive amid ongoing geopolitical tensions [24][25]

Group 1 - The report highlights the beginning of a new upward cycle in the coal industry, driven by supply-demand improvements and price stabilization [3][5][10] - Coal prices showed a significant decline in the first half of 2025 but began to recover in June, with the average price for thermal coal (Q5500) at 695 CNY/ton, down 19% year-on-year, and coking coal at 1497 CNY/ton, down 28% year-on-year [4][5] - The report anticipates a sustainable improvement in supply-demand dynamics, with a potential reduction in domestic coal supply exceeding 100 million tons due to the exit of pre-approved production capacity [5][49] Group 2 - The demand for coal is expected to rebound, particularly in the electricity sector, with a projected growth in coal consumption if electricity generation increases by over 3% in 2026 [7][9] - The chemical sector is also expected to maintain strong coal consumption growth, supported by China's strategic focus on coal chemical development [9] - The steel industry is projected to see increased coal demand due to government initiatives aimed at stabilizing growth, with an average annual increase of around 4% in value added expected from 2025 to 2026 [9] Group 3 - Investment recommendations include focusing on companies with high dividend yields and low valuations, such as China Shenhua Energy and Zhongmei Energy, which are expected to benefit from the new coal cycle [11] - Companies like Yanzhou Coal Mining and Huayang Co. are highlighted for their potential due to their own capacity growth and significant profit elasticity [11] - The report suggests that companies in a turnaround situation, particularly in the coking coal sector, such as Lu'an Environmental Energy and Pingmei Shenma Energy, are likely to benefit from improved profitability [11]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company for the first time [5]. Core Insights - BOE Technology Group is a leading player in the semiconductor display industry, establishing a "1+4+N ecosystem" for diversified growth [7][11]. - The LCD panel industry is experiencing reduced cyclicality due to dynamic production control and increasing demand for larger screens, which is expected to drive industry growth [7][28]. - The OLED market is expanding rapidly, with a projected compound annual growth rate of 8.91% from 2022 to 2024, indicating significant market potential [7][52]. Summary by Sections 1. Semiconductor Display Industry Leader - BOE has been deeply involved in the panel industry for 30 years, focusing on semiconductor displays and related innovations, forming a comprehensive business structure [11][13]. - The company operates multiple manufacturing bases across China and has subsidiaries in various countries, ensuring a global service network [11][13]. 2. Dynamic Production Control and LCD Demand - The LCD panel industry has historically shown strong cyclicality, but current dynamics suggest a significant reduction in this cyclicality due to production control measures and recovering demand [28][49]. - The average size of televisions is increasing, from 44 inches in 2017 to an expected 53 inches in 2024, which will further consume panel capacity [49][45]. 3. OLED Market Growth - The global OLED display panel market is projected to reach $50 billion by 2027, with significant growth in both small and medium-sized applications [52][58]. - BOE holds the second-largest global market share in OLED, with a focus on high-end touch displays for laptops and tablets [7][62]. 4. Business Development and Future Prospects - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 225.83 billion yuan in 2025, with a net profit of 7.29 billion yuan, reflecting strong growth potential [5][7]. - BOE's diverse product offerings and strategic positioning in the semiconductor display market provide a solid foundation for future growth [7][73].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the light industry and textile sector, indicating a positive outlook for their stock performance in the coming months [4][6][11]. Core Insights - The report highlights the recent joint issuance of a consumption promotion plan by six government departments, focusing on enhancing supply-demand matching in consumer goods, which is expected to benefit the light textile sector [6][7]. - Four main investment themes are identified: emotional consumption, intelligent consumer goods, brand apparel, and manufacturing upgrades, each presenting unique opportunities for growth [6][7][8]. Summary by Relevant Sections Market Overview - The light industry index increased by 4.17%, ranking 5th among 28 industries, while the textile and apparel index rose by 2.75%, ranking 16th [6][11]. - Key sub-sectors within the light industry showed positive performance, with packaging printing up by 5.46% and cultural products by 4.81% [6][11]. Investment Themes 1. **Emotional Consumption**: The report emphasizes the importance of IP-driven products in creating demand, particularly in the cultural and pet economy sectors [6][7]. 2. **Intelligent Consumer Goods**: The ongoing advancements in AI and related standards are expected to drive the adoption of smart consumer products, with a focus on AI glasses and smart home products [6][7]. 3. **Brand Apparel**: The report notes a favorable environment for domestic brands due to increased recognition and innovation in consumer experiences [6][7]. 4. **Manufacturing Upgrades**: There is a focus on new textile materials and environmentally friendly products, highlighting companies with strong R&D capabilities [6][7]. Key Company Recommendations - Companies such as Bubble Mart and Morning Glory are highlighted for their strong growth potential and innovative capabilities in the emotional consumption and cultural product sectors [6][7]. - In the home furnishings sector, companies like Kuka Home and Xilinmen are recommended due to their robust e-commerce performance [6][7]. - For brand apparel, companies like Anta Sports and Li Ning are noted for their potential in functional footwear and apparel [6][7]. Raw Material Trends - The report tracks fluctuations in raw material prices, noting recent increases in cotton prices and stable pricing in certain paper products, which may impact production costs [19][22][39].

Report Summary - The market has recently worried about the redemption of credit bond ETFs. Data shows that the overall scale of credit bond ETFs has not declined significantly, but there is structural differentiation among products [4]. - Interest - rate products: Ultra - long bond products have seen obvious capital outflows. As of November 28, 2025, interest - rate ETFs had a net outflow of 249 million yuan in the past week. The Pengyang ChinaBond - 30 - year Treasury Bond ETF's net value dropped by 0.71% and its market capitalization decreased by 2.614 billion yuan, while the Huaxia Benchmark Treasury Bond ETF's net value dropped by 0.26% but its market capitalization increased by 2.914 billion yuan [4]. - Credit - type products: The scale of market - making credit bond ETFs has decreased significantly, while the scale of science and technology innovation bond ETFs has continued to grow, but there is significant structural differentiation among products. As of November 28, 2025, credit - type ETFs had a net outflow of 535 million yuan in the past week. Specifically, short - term financing, corporate bonds, and urban investment bonds had net inflows of 1.212 billion yuan, 111 million yuan, and a net outflow of 10 million yuan respectively. Market - making credit bonds had a large - scale net outflow of 2.952 billion yuan, and science and technology innovation bonds had a net inflow of 1.104 billion yuan [4]. - Specific products: In credit bond ETFs, the market capitalization of Huaxia Credit Bond ETF, Credit Bond ETF GF, and Credit Bond ETF Dacheng decreased by 1.355 billion yuan, 785 million yuan, and 731 million yuan respectively in the past week. In science and technology innovation bond ETFs, the scale of Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETF Southern, Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETF E Fund, Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETF China Merchants, and Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETF Industrial decreased by 1.767 billion yuan, 1.206 billion yuan, 729 million yuan, and 629 million yuan respectively. The scale of Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETF Fullgoal and Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETF Dacheng increased by 2.142 billion yuan and 2.417 billion yuan respectively [4]. - Overall bond - type ETFs: As of November 28, 2025, bond - type ETFs had a total net outflow of 2.303 billion yuan in the past week. Interest - rate, credit - type, and convertible - bond - type ETFs had net outflows of 249 million yuan, 535 million yuan, and 1.519 billion yuan respectively. The cumulative net inflows of interest - rate, credit - type, and convertible - bond ETFs for the year were 73.951 billion yuan, 444.828 billion yuan, and 23.619 billion yuan respectively, with a total of 542.398 billion yuan [4]. - Net value performance: All types of bond ETF products' net values have been adjusted. As of November 28, 2025, the Orient Fortune Treasury Bond ETF and the Guokai Bond ETF performed well, rising 0.02%. The 30 - year Treasury Bond ETF adjusted significantly, falling 0.71%. Convertible bond ETFs and Shanghai Stock Exchange Convertible Bond ETFs fell 0.28% and 0.77% respectively [4]. Credit Bond ETF and Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETF Performance - As of November 28, 2025, the median net asset values per unit of credit bond ETFs and science and technology innovation bond ETFs were 1.0109 and 0.9991 respectively, falling 0.16% and 0.17% for the week. Among credit bond ETFs, Bosera Credit Bond ETF performed relatively well, falling 0.10%. Among science and technology innovation bond ETFs, the Yongying Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETF and the Invesco Great Wall Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETF performed relatively well [2]. - As of November 28, 2025, the median discount rates of credit bond ETFs and science and technology innovation bond ETFs were 24BP and 13BP respectively [2]. Credit - Type ETF Duration Tracking - As of November 28, 2025, the holding durations of short - term financing ETFs, corporate bond ETFs, and urban investment bond ETFs were 0.37 years, 1.85 years, and 2.20 years respectively. Among market - making credit bond ETFs, the median holding durations of products tracking the Shanghai Market - Making Corporate Bond Index and the Shenzhen Market - Making Corporate Bond Index were 3.84 years and 2.87 years respectively. Among science and technology innovation bond ETFs, the median holding durations of products tracking the AAA Science and Technology Innovation Bond Index, Shanghai AAA Science and Technology Innovation Bond Index, and Shenzhen AAA Science and Technology Innovation Bond Index were 3.49 years, 3.56 years, and 3.24 years respectively [3][5]

基金、券商共振抛券 ——流动性与机构行为跟踪 证券研究报告/固收定期报告 2025 年 12 月 01 日 分析师：吕品 执业证书编号：S0740525060003 Email：lvpin@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740525070001 Email：yanly@zts.com.cn Email：suht@zts.com.cn 2025-11-24 2、《债基久期再回落》2025-11-20 3 、 《 震 荡 行 情 下 的 机 构 行 为 》 2025-11-16 分析师：严伶怡 本周（11.24-11.28）关注要点：本周资金利率分化，大行融出日均环比增加，基金小 幅降杠杆；存单到期减少，存单到期收益率曲线走陡；现券成交来看，买盘主力来自 大行，增持 1-3Y 利率债为主，基金、券商是主要抛盘，其中基金主要卖出 7-10Y 和 20-30Y 利率债，保险继续增配 20-30Y 超长利率债。 货币资金面 同业存单与票据 机构行为跟踪 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 报告摘要 联系人：苏鸿婷 相关报告 1、《资金波动，大行融出下行》 本周（11.24-11.28，下同）共有 16760 亿 ...

2025年12月1日 中泰证券研究所 分析师：徐驰 执业证书编号：S0740519080003 分析师：张文宇 执业证书编号：S0740520120003 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明 【市场回顾】 证券研究报告 信用业务周报 如何看待近期科技板块再度反弹？ 图表：市场表现回顾 数据来源：Wind，中泰证券研究所 2 【市场观察】如何看待上周科技板块反弹？ ➢ 一、如何看待上周科技板块反弹？ 3 ➢ 上周市场热点集中在TMT等科技板块，科技板块在超跌背景下迎来反弹，通信设备、电子元件、 游戏、消费电子等领涨两市。通信、电子、传媒行业周度涨幅分别达到8.70%、6.05%、4.23%， 均已收复上周跌幅，其中通信已强势接近10月底高点。在申万二级行业中，通信设备、电子元件 、游戏、消费电子尤其强势，周涨幅均在5%以上。光模块CPO、光芯片、光通信、光电路交换机 OCS、6G等多个通信主题指数涨幅超过10%。光库科技、通宇通讯、特发信息等产业链个股单周涨 超30%。 ➢ 上周A股科技板块反弹的背后，有政策面和海外因素的双重驱动。国内宏观经济数据与监管机构 释放积极信号。1-10月全国规模以上工业企业利润 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the banking industry [2] Core Insights - The underlying logic of economic and financial policies supports "new quality productivity" and "bottom-line thinking" [2][3] - New growth points for the banking industry in 2026 include: - Infrastructure loans are expected to rebound, with ongoing structural adjustments, particularly in digital and green infrastructure [2][3] - Manufacturing loans are expected to remain resilient due to sustained export strength and opportunities from traditional industry upgrades and green finance [2][3] - Technology finance loans continue to grow rapidly, especially in the artificial intelligence industry chain [2][3] - Wealth management, particularly for high-net-worth clients, is expected to see significant growth [2][3] - Real estate and consumption are expected to stabilize, with marginal policy easing anticipated in 2026, although a "steady upward" trend requires unexpected policy support [2][3] - The mapping of business to investment indicates that banking operations can remain stable, with bank stocks transitioning from "pro-cyclical" to "weak-cyclical" [2][3] Summary by Sections Economic and Financial Policy Framework - The focus is on developing new quality productivity to break through economic growth ceilings, which is the core direction for future financial resource allocation [9] - Bottom-line thinking emphasizes the prevention of systemic risks related to real estate and local debt, providing a stable macro environment for the transition between old and new growth drivers [9][10] New Infrastructure Loans - Infrastructure investment in 2025 shows a significant slowdown, with a cumulative year-on-year growth rate of 1.51%, down 7.84 percentage points from 2024 [20] - New infrastructure, particularly digital and green projects, is expected to drive growth in 2026, with a focus on regional coordination and urban renewal [20][24] Manufacturing Loans - Manufacturing loans are expected to maintain resilience, supported by exports and traditional industry upgrades, with a market potential of 10 trillion over five years [31] - The growth of green finance remains significant, with major banks increasing their green credit ratios [31] Technology Finance - Technology finance is projected to maintain high growth, with a year-on-year increase of over 17% in high-tech loans [31] - There is a notable disparity in technology loan ratios between large and small banks, indicating room for growth in smaller institutions [31] Wealth Management - The wealth management sector is experiencing a shift from "scale-driven" to "precise matching," benefiting high-net-worth clients [31] Real Estate and Consumption - Real estate policies are expected to see marginal easing, with a focus on stabilizing the market in 2026 [31] - Consumption is projected to continue under a "policy support" framework, with internal dynamics needing to strengthen [31]