执业证书编号：S0740523020004 Email：hejy02@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740522120003 Email：liuxc03@zts.com.cn 分析师：毛䶮玄 执业证书编号：S0740523020003 Email：maoyx@zts.com.cn 汽车零部件 | (维持 | | --- | | 入 买 | | 评级: ) | | 总股本(百万股) | 2,609.74 | | --- | --- | | 流通股本(百万股) | 2,609.74 | | 市价(元) | 57.51 | | 市值(百万元) | 150,086.35 | | 流通市值(百万元) | 150,086.35 | 1、《Q3 再创佳绩，盈利能力持续优 异》2024-10-17 2、《【中泰汽车】福耀玻璃 24Q2 点评： Q2 超预期盈利质量向上，全球龙头 兼具成长性与确定性》2024-08-07 3、《【中泰汽车】福耀玻璃点评：Q2 盈利大超预期，全球龙头兼具成长性 与确定性》2024-07-31 福耀玻璃（600660.SH） 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2025 年 03 月 19 日 ...

美联储在"噪音"期维持观望态度 Email：yangchang@zts.com.cn 分析师：夏知非 执业证书编号：S0740523110007 Email：xiazf01@zts.com.cn 证券研究报告/宏观事件点评报告 2025 年 03 月 20 日 报告摘要 相关报告 美联储 2025 年 3 月议息会议宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在 4.25%-4.50%的区 间，从 4 月起放缓缩表速度，持有国债的缩减速度将从每月 250 亿美元下调至 50 亿 美元。会议声明与鲍威尔答记者问均强调当前高度不确定性，会议声明新增表述"经 济前景的不确定性有所增加"，鲍威尔则表示需要努力将"信号与噪音"、"关税通胀 和非关税通胀"分开，现阶段定义通胀还为时过早。对于近期的经济数据，鲍威尔更 侧重关注"硬数据"，并指出"硬数据显示经济仍稳固...尽管增长可能放缓"，或认为 衰退风险有限。对于部分情绪指标走弱，鲍威尔表示此类调查和实际经济活动的关系 并不十分紧密，有待进一步明朗。总体来看，在不确定性中，美联储仍维持观望态度， 倾向于观察关税实际落地情况后再对政策调整做评估。会后发布的美联储经济预期概 要（SEP） ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [3][5]. Core Insights - Ctrip has established significant competitive advantages through supply lock-in and a comprehensive service system, positioning it favorably against both domestic and international competitors [4][5]. - The company is expected to achieve revenue growth rates of 14.8%, 13.8%, and 12.9% for the years 2025 to 2027, with projected revenues of 612.6 billion, 697.3 billion, and 787.0 billion yuan respectively [5]. - Ctrip's long-term growth potential is enhanced by changes in domestic consumer demand and accelerated international expansion, making its growth trajectory more favorable compared to many trading platforms [4][5]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Ctrip has a total share capital of 684 million shares, with a market price of 518 HKD, resulting in a market capitalization of 354,067 million HKD [2]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for Ctrip are as follows: 44,562 million yuan in 2023, 53,377 million yuan in 2024, and expected growth to 61,260 million yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 122% in 2023 and 20% in 2024 [3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 9,918 million yuan in 2023, increasing to 17,067 million yuan in 2024, but expected to decline slightly to 16,145 million yuan in 2025 [3]. Competitive Positioning - Ctrip's competitive edge is attributed to three main factors: supply lock-in, a differentiated user profile, and high infrastructure barriers due to the nature of travel services [4][5]. - The report highlights that the impact of hotel concentration on OTA market share and take rate is limited, suggesting that Ctrip's market position remains strong despite these changes [4][5]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that Ctrip's ecosystem is better positioned than that of international leaders like Booking and Expedia, primarily due to the differences in internet user behavior and the absence of a dominant traffic distributor like Google in China [4][5]. - Ctrip's international business is expected to contribute significantly to its revenue, with outbound tourism and international OTA operations projected to account for one-third of the group's income [12]. Conclusion - Overall, Ctrip's robust competitive advantages, favorable market positioning, and strong financial projections support the "Buy" rating, indicating a positive outlook for investors [5].

电视广播Ⅱ 电视频道覆盖龙头服务商，微波组件打造第二成长曲线 流金科技（834021.BJ） 证券研究报告/公司深度报告 2025 年 03 月 17 日 | 评级： 增持（首次） | | 公司盈利预测及估值 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 分析师：冯胜 | 营业收入（百万元） | | 804 | 760 | 647 | 703 | 775 | | | 增长率 yoy% | | -5% | -5% | -15% | 9% | 10% | | 执业证书编号：S0740519050004 | 归母净利润（百万元） | | 21 | 20 | -22 | 30 | 58 | | Email：fengsheng@zts.com.cn | 增长率 yoy% | | -72% | -4% | -209% | 237% | 92% | | | 每股收益（元） | | 0.07 | 0.07 | -0.07 | 0.10 | 0. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for the stock over the next 6 to 12 months [2][3]. Core Insights - The company has a stable market share in the regional market, with a high dividend yield that highlights a safety margin for investors [2][3]. - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 4,278 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 23%. However, a recovery in profitability is anticipated in subsequent years [2][3]. - The company is expected to maintain a strong position in a relatively closed market, supported by a reasonable capacity layout and resource endowment [3]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profitability**: The company reported a revenue of 4,278 million yuan for 2024, down 22.7% year-on-year, with a net profit of 538 million yuan, a decrease of 27.5% [3]. - **Sales Volume**: In 2024, the company's cement sales volume was 15.859 million tons, down 10.1% year-on-year, but the market share remained stable [3]. - **Cement Price**: The average cement price for 2024 was 238 yuan per ton, a decrease of 45.8 yuan compared to the previous year, influenced by weak demand and external competition [3]. - **Cost and Margin**: The cement cost per ton was 189.0 yuan, down 19.5% year-on-year, while the gross profit per ton was 49.2 yuan, down 26.4% [3]. - **Dividends**: The company plans to distribute a total cash dividend of 5.9 billion yuan for 2024, resulting in a dividend yield of 6.2%, which supports stock price stability [3]. Earnings Forecast - The company’s projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 613 million yuan, 667 million yuan, and 701 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 15.6, 14.3, and 13.6 [2][3].

【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】策略徐驰：民营科技突破与特朗普 2.0 下 资本市场或如 何演绎？ [T[分Taa析bbll师ee__：TMi戴tlea志]in锋] 执业证书编号：S0740517030004 电话： [Table_Industry] | | 证券研究报告 | 2025 年 3 月 18 日 | | --- | --- | --- | | [Table_Industry] [T[分Taa析bbll师ee__：TMi戴tlea志]in锋] | [b_Suy 今日预览 | | | 执业证书编号：S0740517030004 | | | | 电话： | | | | Email： | | | | | 今日重点>> | | | |  【策略】徐驰：民营科技突破与特朗普 | 2.0 下 资本市场或如何演绎？ | 研究分享>> 【政策】杨畅：投资发力——2025 年 1-2 月经济数据点评 欢迎关注中泰研究所订阅号 晨报内容回顾： 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 今日重点 【策略】徐驰：民营科技突破与特朗普 2.0 下 资本市场或如何演绎？ 两会后，市场开始关注"现实"时，特朗普关税政策、国内政策定力、经济基本面 ...

美国降息预期抬升，金属价格整体上涨 有色金属 证券研究报告/行业定期报告 2025 年 03 月 18 日 分析师：谢鸿鹤 执业证书编号：S0740517080003 Email：xiehh@zts.com.cn 分析师：任恒 执业证书编号：S0740525010001 Email：renheng@zts.com.cn 分析师：刘耀齐 执业证书编号：S0740523080004 Email：liuyq07@zts.com.cn | 上市公司数 | 141 | | --- | --- | | 行业总市值(亿元) | 30,692.52 | | 行业流通市值(亿元) | 28,838.08 | 1、《Alphamin Resources 锡矿暂停 生产，供应进一步趋紧》2025-03-17 2、《【中泰金属观察-全球制造业 PMI 跟踪】全球制造业 PMI 跟踪：2 月延 续扩张，需关注抢出口后的持续性 20250312》2025-03-15 属价格整体上涨》2025-03-10 1）贵金属：美国 2 月 CPI 和 PPI 数据均低于预期，通胀增长相对温和，美联储降息 预期抬升，利多短期黄金价格。中长期看，美国 ...

服装家纺 多元化布局打造强客户粘性，开拓运动赛道成长性提升 ——晶苑国际深度报告 晶苑国际（02232.HK） 证券研究报告/公司深度报告 2025 年 03 月 18 日 | 评级： | 买入（首次） | 公司盈利预测及估值 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 | 2022A | | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 分析师：张潇 | | 营业收入（百万元） | 17,499 | | 15,651 | 17,593 | 19,569 | 21,635 | | | | 增长率 yoy% | | 16% | -11% | 12% | 11% | 11% | | 执业证书编号：S0740523030001 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | | 1,203 | 1,158 | 1,412 | 1,682 | 1,946 | | Email：zhangxiao06@zts.com.cn | | 增长率 yoy% | | 16% | -4% | 22% | 19% ...

｜ 证 券 研 究 报 告 ｜ 民营科技突破与特朗普2.0下 资本市场或如何演绎？ ——2025年春季策略 2 0 2 5 . 0 3 . 1 8 徐驰 S0740519080003 xuchi@zts.com.cn 王永健 S0740522050001 wangyj09@zts.com.cn 张文宇 S0740520120003 zhangwy01@zts.com.cn 目 录 C O N T E N T S DeepSeek等科技密集突破 1 或带来哪些影响？ 中 泰 证 券 研 究 所 专 业 ｜ 领 先 ｜ 深 度 ｜ 诚 信 4 海外：特朗普2.0或带来哪些影响？ 5 投资建议 2 更加重视科技： 政策维度有何新变化？ 3 高质量发展路线下， 我国经济与企业盈利演绎 6 风险提示 核心结论："预期与现实"间的反差 CONTENTS 目录 NTS 专 业 ｜ 领 先 ｜ 深 度 ｜ 诚 信 1 DeepSeek等突破带来中国科技"价值重估" 图表：春节至2月27日阶段高点AH指数表现（%） 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 港股指数涨跌幅（%） A股指数涨跌幅（%） A股行业指数涨跌幅（%） | ...

业绩符合预期，天士力并购在即 中药Ⅱ 华润三九（000999.SZ） 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2025 年 03 月 17 日 | 评级： | 买入（维持） | 公司盈利预测及估值 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 分析师：祝嘉琦 | | 营业收入（百万元） | 24,739 | 27,617 | 30,986 | 34,549 | 38,004 | | | | 增长率 yoy% | 37% | 12% | 12% | 12% | 10% | | 执业证书编号：S0740519040001 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 2,853 | 3,368 | 3,821 | 4,315 | 4,837 | | Email：zhujq@zts.com.cn | | 增长率 yoy% | 17% | 18% | 13% | 13% | 12% | | | | 每股收益（元） | 2.89 | 2.62 | 2.98 | ...