Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue growth, with projected revenues of 40,062 million in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth rate of 207% [2] - The net profit forecast for 2025 is 14,002 million, with a remarkable growth rate of 348% year-on-year [2] - The report highlights the company's strong performance in both domestic and international markets, with Q3 2025 revenue growth of 245%-250% compared to the same period in 2024 [5] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 6,345 million in 2023, with projections of 13,038 million in 2024 and 40,062 million in 2025 [2] - The net profit for 2023 is 1,191 million, expected to rise to 3,125 million in 2024 and 14,002 million in 2025 [2] - Earnings per share are projected to increase from 0.89 in 2023 to 10.43 in 2025 [2] Market Trends - The report notes a significant increase in online sales, with a growth rate of over 300% in Q3 2025, driven by innovative marketing strategies and new sales channels [5] - The overseas market is also experiencing high growth, particularly in the Americas, which saw a staggering growth of 1265%-1270% [5] Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue its high growth trajectory into 2026 and beyond, with anticipated revenues of 58,021 million in 2026 and 77,814 million in 2027 [2] - The report emphasizes the company's leadership in the IP industry and its potential for further expansion in international markets [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the defense and military industry [6]. Core Insights - The upcoming 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session will focus on the "14th Five-Year Plan," which is expected to support the modernization of national defense and military by 2035, building on the achievements of the "13th Five-Year Plan" [9][23]. - The J-35 aircraft's production ramp-up is anticipated to boost the traditional domestic demand, with upstream material suppliers already announcing significant contracts that will support future revenue growth [9][23]. - The aerospace engine industry is experiencing sustained high demand, with the completion of price adjustments and inventory reduction, alongside ongoing state-owned enterprise reforms [10][23]. - The commercial aerospace sector is entering a critical development phase, with plans to launch approximately 2,100 satellites by 2025 and significant advancements in satellite manufacturing capabilities [11][23]. - Global military expenditure is expected to reach new highs in 2024, driven by geopolitical tensions, creating opportunities for domestic military trade [12][23]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The defense and military industry comprises 144 listed companies with a total market value of 28,244.53 billion and a circulating market value of 24,587.80 billion [3]. Market Performance - The defense and military index fell by 4.70% this week, ranking 23rd among 31 major industries [8][36]. - The current PE (TTM) for the defense and military sector is 73.8 times, with various sub-sectors showing different valuations [8][42]. Key Developments - The report highlights the importance of the upcoming 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session, which will focus on the "14th Five-Year Plan" and its implications for national defense [9][23]. - The aerospace engine sector is expected to benefit from military trade advancements and the introduction of new engine models, such as the CJ-1000A, which is set to enter commercial operation by 2030 [10][11][23]. - The commercial space sector is projected to see significant growth, with plans for large-scale satellite launches and advancements in satellite manufacturing capabilities [11][35]. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in missile and military electronics, aerospace engines, and military trade, highlighting specific firms such as Zhonghang Chengfei, Zhonghang Shenfei, and Huazhong Technology [19][25][26][27][28].

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Overweight" [4][6][72] Core Viewpoints - The construction demand is under pressure while raw material prices remain relatively strong, leading to a maintained "Overweight" rating for the industry [6] - Steel demand has shown a significant week-on-week increase, primarily driven by the resumption of work after the National Day holiday, although construction material demand remains weak year-on-year [6][10] - Steel inventory has increased week-on-week, with hot-rolled steel experiencing the most accumulation [6][15] - Iron output has decreased week-on-week but has increased year-on-year, indicating resilience in demand supported by the manufacturing sector [6][37] Summary by Relevant Sections Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.47% this week, while the CSI 300 Index dropped by 2.22%. The steel sector declined by 2.01%, outperforming the CSI 300 by 0.21 percentage points [10] - Black futures prices have decreased, with rebar closing at 3037 CNY/ton, down 66 CNY/ton (2.13%), and hot-rolled coil at 3204 CNY/ton, down 81 CNY/ton (2.47%) [13][38] Demand and Supply Dynamics - The apparent consumption of the five major steel products decreased year-on-year, totaling 8.5922 million tons, although it increased by 1.5131 million tons week-on-week [15] - Total steel inventory rose to 21.7508 million tons, an increase of 389.33 thousand tons year-on-year [25] - The iron output from 247 steel enterprises was 2.4095 million tons, a slight decrease of 0.0059 million tons week-on-week but an increase of 0.659 million tons year-on-year [37] Profitability and Pricing - The profitability per ton of steel has weakened, with various steel products showing fluctuating profits, such as rebar at -15 CNY/ton and hot-rolled steel at -8 CNY/ton [46] - The profit ratio among 247 steel mills was 55.41%, a decrease of 0.87 percentage points from the previous week [47] Downstream Demand - Domestic cement dispatches fell to 2.5285 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 726.5 thousand tons [58] - PVC production increased to 467.38 thousand tons, up 1.4293 thousand tons year-on-year [58]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry [4] Core Views - The report emphasizes the importance of valuation switching logic in the new consumption sector, highlighting stable operational performance in the sports brand sector for Q3 [6][4] - It suggests a focus on high-growth tracks in new consumption and the valuation switching logic within the sector, particularly in the collectible toy segment [6][4] - The report identifies several companies with strong growth potential and suggests monitoring their performance closely [6][4] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The industry consists of 175 listed companies with a total market value of 10,672.79 billion and a circulating market value of 8,623.31 billion [2] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 1.47%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 4.99% during the week of October 13-17, 2025 [6][11] - The light industry manufacturing index dropped by 2.22%, ranking 13th among 28 Shenwan industries, while the textile and apparel index decreased by 0.31%, ranking 5th [6][11] Key Company Insights - Companies such as Bubble Mart are expected to release Q3 operational data, with new product launches anticipated to drive performance in Q4 [6] - 361 Degrees reported a stable performance with a 10% increase in offline and children's clothing sales, and a 20% increase in e-commerce sales [6] - Anta Sports, Li Ning, and other functional apparel brands are highlighted for their growth potential [6] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on the acceleration of the Chinese consumption supply chain going overseas, particularly in non-woven fabric manufacturing [6][7] - Companies like Yanjiang Co. are recommended for their advanced production techniques and global supply chain capabilities [7] - The pet supplies sector is also highlighted, with companies like Yuanfei Pet expected to benefit from growth in both OEM and OBM businesses [6][7] Sector Recommendations - The report recommends monitoring companies in the home furnishing sector, such as Xilinmen and Gujia Home, for potential recovery in performance and valuation [6] - In the paper industry, Sun Paper is recommended due to its integrated advantages and expected improvement in profitability [6][7] - The textile manufacturing sector suggests a focus on companies like Jingyuan International for their market share growth potential [6][7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recent volume contraction in the A-share market is a result of technical corrections in over - rising sectors, cautious market sentiment due to Sino - US relations and external uncertainties, and a slowdown in incremental funds. However, it is not a trend reversal. Policy and fundamental factors are expected to boost market confidence, and trading volume may gradually recover [7][8][10]. - It is recommended to continue focusing on two main investment lines: the non - ferrous metals sector and leading stocks in science and technology growth sectors such as semiconductors and artificial intelligence [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - **Market Performance**: Most major A - share indices rose last week, with the Shanghai 50 having the largest increase (weekly return of - 0.24%). Among major industries, the financial and energy indices performed relatively well (weekly returns of 1.91% and 1.63% respectively), while the information technology and telecommunications service indices performed poorly (weekly returns of - 6.70% and - 4.79% respectively). Among the 30 Shenwan primary industries, 4 industries rose, with banks, coal, and food and beverage having larger increases of 4.89%, 4.17%, and 0.86% respectively; electronics, media, and automobiles had larger declines of 7.14%, 6.27%, and 5.99% respectively [11][16][18]. - **Trading Heat**: The average daily trading volume of the Wind All - A Index last week was 2192.852 billion yuan (previous value: 2602.982 billion yuan), at a relatively high historical level (93.40% of the three - year historical quantile) [21]. - **Valuation Tracking**: As of October 17, 2025, the valuation (PE_TTM) of the Wind All - A Index was 21.96, a decrease of - 0.51 from the previous week, at the 89.20% quantile of the past 5 - year history. Among the 30 Shenwan primary industries, 4 industries saw valuation (PE_TTM) recoveries [26]. Market Observation - **Analysis of Volume Contraction Adjustment**: Last week, the trading volume of major A - share indices declined comprehensively, especially in small - cap and ChiNext and STAR Market sectors. The decline in trading volume was mainly due to technical corrections in over - rising sectors, cautious market sentiment caused by Sino - US relations and external uncertainties, and a slowdown in incremental funds, including cautious northbound funds, cooling margin trading, and increased shareholder reduction pressure [7]. - **Positive Factors**: The upcoming Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee may bring continuous policy support in areas such as artificial intelligence and advanced manufacturing. As the third - quarter earnings reports are intensively disclosed, corporate profit situations are becoming clearer, with 82.54% of the 126 companies that have released earnings forecasts reporting positive news. These factors may attract off - market funds to re - enter the market and increase trading volume [8]. - **Investment Recommendations**: Despite the volume contraction adjustment last week, it is not a trend reversal. It is recommended to focus on the non - ferrous metals sector and leading stocks in science and technology growth sectors such as semiconductors and artificial intelligence [10]. Economic Calendar - **Domestic Economic Data**: Key domestic economic data to be released this week include China's unemployment rate, year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods, year - on - year growth rate of quarterly GDP, 1 - year loan prime rate (LPR), and cumulative year - on - year growth rate of urban fixed - asset investment [28]. - **Domestic Important Events**: The National Bureau of Statistics of China will hold a press conference on the economic operation situation [28]. - **Overseas Economic Data**: Overseas economic data to be released include the year - on - year growth rate of US industrial output, unadjusted year - on - year CPI in the US, and Markit composite PMI [28]. - **Overseas Important Events**: Michael Barr, the Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve for Financial Supervision, will give a speech [28].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector, including WuXi AppTec, WuXi Biologics, and Changchun High-tech [5][28]. Core Insights - The report expresses a strong outlook on the innovation theme and emphasizes the importance of capturing Q3 performance. The pharmaceutical sector has shown a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 2.73% and the pharmaceutical sector down 3.65% [12][16]. - The report highlights the active participation of Chinese biopharmaceutical companies in global business development (BD) transactions, which have reached 38% of the global total since 2025. This trend is expected to boost investment sentiment in the sector [12][16]. - The report suggests focusing on companies with improving performance metrics, particularly in the CRO/CDMO and upstream segments, as well as in medical devices and traditional Chinese medicine [12][16]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The pharmaceutical industry comprises 515 listed companies with a total market capitalization of approximately 731.59 billion yuan and a circulating market value of about 666.30 billion yuan [2]. Market Dynamics - The pharmaceutical sector has experienced a year-to-date return of 18.85%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 4.13 percentage points. However, recent weeks have seen a decline in various sub-sectors, with traditional Chinese medicine being the only one to show an increase [16][18]. Valuation Metrics - The current valuation of the pharmaceutical sector is approximately 26.2 times PE based on 2025 earnings forecasts, which is a premium of 17.3% compared to the overall A-share market (excluding financials). The TTM valuation stands at 30.1 times PE, below the historical average of 34.9 times PE [18][20]. Key Company Performance - The report lists several companies with strong performance metrics, including WuXi AppTec, WuXi Biologics, and Changchun High-tech, all rated as "Buy." The average decline for recommended stocks in the month was 10.08%, with a weekly decline of 7.43% [28][29]. Business Development Activity - The report notes that several pharmaceutical companies have engaged in overseas licensing agreements, indicating a growing recognition of Chinese companies' capabilities in the global market [12][16]. Regulatory Updates - Recent regulatory announcements from the National Medical Insurance Administration and the National Medical Products Administration are aimed at improving drug pricing transparency and enhancing the approval process for innovative drugs [12][29]. Price Trends - The report tracks the price movements of various vitamins, noting slight decreases in some and stability in others, which may impact the cost structure for companies in the sector [31][32].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [1] Core Views - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development is promoting new urban renewal initiatives, leading to a significant increase in sales on a month-over-month basis despite a year-over-year decline [6] - The report highlights that while sales remain down year-over-year, the recent policies are expected to stabilize the market and improve the performance of financially sound real estate companies [6] Summary by Sections Weekly Market Review - The Shenwan Real Estate Index fell by 2.35%, while the CSI 300 Index decreased by 2.22%, indicating underperformance of the sector compared to the broader market [3][11] Industry Fundamentals - For the week of October 10-16, 38 tracked cities saw a total of 27,488 new homes sold, a year-over-year decline of 19.1% but a month-over-month increase of 257.2% [4][20] - The total transaction area for new homes was 2.804 million square meters, with a year-over-year decrease of 23.3% and a month-over-month increase of 281.4% [4][20] - In the same week, 16 tracked cities recorded 20,896 second-hand homes sold, down 16% year-over-year but up 459.8% month-over-month [35][38] Land Market Supply and Transactions - Land supply for the week was 1,426.4 million square meters, a year-over-year decrease of 70.1%, with an average price of 1,659 yuan per square meter, down 3.9% year-over-year [5] - Land transactions totaled 1,707 million square meters, with a year-over-year increase of 19.4% and a transaction value of 25.88 billion yuan, down 36.3% year-over-year [5] Financing Analysis - Real estate companies issued a total of 5.49 billion yuan in credit bonds, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 35.64% but a month-over-month increase of 1,272.5% [5] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on financially stable leading real estate companies such as Yuexiu Property, China Merchants Shekou, Poly Developments, and others, which are expected to effectively navigate market fluctuations [6] - Property management companies are also anticipated to benefit from performance and valuation recovery as market demand rebounds [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [3][6] Core Views - The company has shown strong revenue growth, with a 17.6% year-on-year increase in the first three quarters of 2025, achieving revenue of 33.3 billion yuan [5][6] - The gross profit margin for Q3 2025 was 37.9%, slightly down from the previous year, but overall profitability remains stable [6] - The company is expanding its production capacity significantly, with investments totaling 90 billion yuan to increase automotive glass production capacity by 46.6 million square meters, which is 32.5% of its 2023 production scale [6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 11.86 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.9%, and a net profit of 2.26 billion yuan, up 14.1% year-on-year [5][6] - The company forecasts net profits of 9.93 billion yuan, 11.47 billion yuan, and 13.37 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with growth rates of 32%, 16%, and 17% [6][7] Product and Market Strategy - The company is focusing on high-value-added products, with a 4.9 percentage point increase in the proportion of such products in the first three quarters of 2025, leading to a 6.9% increase in average selling price (ASP) [6] - The company is also enhancing its market share globally, supported by new production capacity in the U.S. and a strong product upgrade strategy [6] Valuation Metrics - The company is expected to have a P/E ratio of 17X, 14X, and 12X for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, indicating a strong valuation outlook [6][7] - The projected return on equity (ROE) is expected to be 22%, 21%, and 19% for the next three years, reflecting solid profitability [6][7]

执业证书编号：S0740523020004 Email：hejy02@zts.com.cn 汽车零部件 执业证书编号：S0740522120003 Email：liuxc03@zts.com.cn 分析师：毛䶮玄 执业证书编号：S0740523020003 Email：maoyx@zts.com.cn 基本状况 | 总股本(百万股) | 434.31 | | --- | --- | | 流通股本(百万股) | 283.30 | | 市价(元) | 30.90 | | 市值(百万元) | 13,420.32 | | 流通市值(百万元) | 8,753.88 | 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 1、《业绩强劲延续，强客户结构典型 代表》2025-08-27 2、《Q2 超预期，强客户结构典型代 表》2025-07-20 3、《Q1 增长维持强劲，强客户结构 典型代表》2025-04-29 Q3 超预期，强客户结构典型代表 ——博俊科技 2025 三季报预告点评 博俊科技（300926.SZ） 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2025 年 10 月 19 日 | 评级： | 买入（维持） | 公司盈利预测及估值 | ...

Group 1 - The TACO trading model reflects a dual strategy in US trade negotiations, characterized by public threats and private institutional measures, which have shown limited effectiveness in negotiations with China [3][9][10] - The recent tariff risks have had a muted impact on the market compared to previous instances, indicating that the capital market has adapted to the TACO trading dynamics [11][14] - The resilience of the market is attributed to macroeconomic signals from US officials and strategic partnerships in the tech sector, which have helped stabilize investor sentiment [13][14] Group 2 - The ongoing trade tensions highlight key points of contention, including China's concerns over fentanyl tariffs and the expansion of the entity list, while the US focuses on China's rare earth export controls and agricultural trade [16][17] - Upcoming events, such as the APEC summit and potential tariff escalations, are critical for market sentiment and investment strategies [18] - The long-term impacts of tariffs on the US and Chinese economies remain uncertain, with a focus on the potential for multiple negotiation pathways rather than a singular resolution [18] Group 3 - The domestic bond market is indirectly influenced by TACO trading, with the current US Treasury yields remaining stable within a wide range since September [19][27] - Recent market behavior shows a divergence in bond performance, with a shift in buying power from funds to brokerages, indicating a change in market dynamics [23][24] - The bond market's future is shaped by internal factors, including asset reallocation and the evolving narrative between traditional and new economy sectors [31]