[Table_Industry] | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------|--------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [6][30]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the precious metals market is experiencing upward price trends due to lower-than-expected U.S. CPI and increasing gold ETF holdings, with gold prices reaching historical highs. The long-term outlook for precious metals remains positive due to high real yields on U.S. Treasury bonds and economic pressures [6][7]. - In the base metals sector, the report notes a significant reduction in inventory levels driven by seasonal demand, which supports price stability. The long-term supply-demand dynamics suggest limited downside for base metal prices, particularly for copper and aluminum [6][8]. - The macroeconomic environment is characterized by a recovery cycle, with mixed signals from domestic and international markets. The report emphasizes the need for improved domestic recovery momentum while noting positive trends in U.S. inflation data and European industrial production [6][30]. Summary by Sections Market Review - Precious metals prices are maintaining high levels, with COMEX gold at $2,610.70 per ounce (up 3.41%) and SHFE gold at ¥583.58 per gram (up 1.73%). Silver prices also saw significant increases [26][28]. - Base metals have shown overall price recovery, with LME copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, tin, and nickel experiencing weekly changes of 3.4%, 5.6%, 3.7%, 7.2%, 3.0%, and 0.4% respectively [28][29]. Macroeconomic Factors - Domestic recovery momentum is still under pressure, with August CPI at 0.6% and PPI at -1.8%. The report indicates that while some financial indicators show resilience, overall economic activity requires further improvement [30][32]. - U.S. inflation data shows a decrease in CPI to 2.6% in August, which has led to increased expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve [30][32]. Precious Metals - The report notes that the market is anticipating a rate cut, which is contributing to the upward trend in gold prices. The actual yield on U.S. Treasury bonds is around 2%, indicating a favorable environment for gold [7][26]. Base Metals - The report discusses the strong supply-demand dynamics in the aluminum market, with domestic aluminum production capacity stable at 43.476 million tons and a decrease in inventory levels. The copper market is also showing signs of improvement, with demand from the power grid and charging stations remaining robust [8][10]. Steel Market - The steel market is supported by seasonal demand, with expectations of continued strength in steel prices due to ongoing recovery in construction and infrastructure projects [12].

【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】政策杨畅：生产降速与需求偏弱——当前经济与政策思考 证券研究报告 2024 年 9 月 18 日 [Table_Industry] [T[分Taa析bbl师lee__：TMi戴tlea志]in锋] 执业证书编号：S0740517030004 电话： Email： [b_Suy 今日预览 今日重点>> 【政策】杨畅：生产降速与需求偏弱——当前经济与政策思考 【医药】祝嘉琦：中药 2024H1：业绩短期承压，提质增效为主线 欢迎关注中泰研究所订阅号 晨报内容回顾： 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 晨会聚焦 今日重点 ►【政策】杨畅：生产降速与需求偏弱——当前经济与政策思考 杨畅｜中泰政策首席 S0740519090004 8 月经济数据呈现生产降速与需求偏弱的特点： 第一，工业增加值同比增速回落，考虑到上年基数偏弱，同比增速回落反应生产呈现降速态势； 第二，工业生产降速主要受下游需求影响，工业企业产销率相较上月回落 0.6 个百分点，相较上年 同期回落 0.8 个百分点，且自 6 月以来连续 3 个月低于上年同期水平； 第三，外需短期具有韧性，出口交货值当月同比上涨 6.4%，剔除掉价格因 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking the first coverage with a market price of 20.36 CNY [1][2]. Core Insights - The company is a leading player in FPC testing equipment, entering a new phase of rapid development, primarily serving the Apple supply chain and expanding into semiconductor testing and automotive sectors [1][6]. - The company has a strong operational quality and profitability, with a projected revenue growth driven by the upcoming AI iPhone innovation cycle [1][2][11]. - The company's R&D investment has significantly increased, with a focus on maintaining technological leadership and responding to market demands [21][24]. Summary by Relevant Sections Company Overview - The company specializes in automated testing equipment and testing fixtures, primarily for consumer electronics such as smartphones and tablets [8][11]. - It has established a strong customer base, including leading global FPC companies, and has expanded its international presence [6][11]. Market Context - The upcoming AI iPhone is expected to create a new cycle of growth in the consumer electronics market, benefiting equipment manufacturers [2][6]. - The MEMS sensor market is projected to grow significantly, with the company actively developing testing equipment for this sector [2][6]. Financial Performance - Revenue is expected to grow from 4.3 billion CNY in 2024 to 7.0 billion CNY in 2026, with net profits projected at 75 million CNY and 170 million CNY respectively [2][11]. - The company has maintained a high gross margin, with automated testing equipment contributing significantly to revenue [14][16]. R&D and Innovation - The company has increased its R&D expenditure, with the R&D expense ratio rising from 14.76% to 32.09% [21][24]. - It employs a proactive R&D approach to stay ahead of industry trends and customer needs [21][24]. Shareholder Structure - The company's ownership is concentrated, with the founders holding a significant portion of shares, which reflects confidence in long-term growth [24][25].

2 3KLMNOP QO R !"#$%& '()*+,$S0740522020001 Email$zengbiao@zts.com.cn !"#$-. '()*+,$S0740522040004 Email$wupeng@zts.com.cn !"#$/01 '()*+,$S0740522080002 Email$zhubr@zts.com.cn !"#$23. '()*+,$S0740522100005 Email$zhaoyp02@zts.com.cn | --- | --- | |-------------|--------| | | | | STUV | | | 45678 | 357 | | 9(:5;(<= ) | 42,853 | | 9(>?5;(<= ) | 36,802 | [Table_QuotePic] EF-WXYZ[\ -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 2023/92023/112024/12024/32024/52024/7 !"#$%&'( )*300 67@ABCDEF [Table_Report] ]^CD CATL & GM !"#$%&'()*+, ...

、 OpenAI 发布 o1 模型，开启大模型新范式 -中泰通信行业周报（0909-0915） 通信 证券研究报告/行业周报 2024 年 9 月 17 日 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------|----------|--------------------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Economic Overview - August economic data indicates a slowdown in production and weak demand, with industrial added value growth year-on-year falling to 4.5% from 5.1%[6] - The industrial production slowdown is primarily influenced by downstream demand, with the industrial enterprise production and sales rate dropping by 0.6 percentage points month-on-month and 0.8 percentage points year-on-year to 96.6%[6][7] External Demand - External demand shows short-term resilience, with export delivery value increasing by 6.4% year-on-year, remaining stable compared to the previous month[7] - After excluding price factors, the actual volume of exports has shown an upward trend, indicating robust external demand despite domestic weaknesses[7] Domestic Demand - Domestic demand remains weak, with fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) totaling 329,385 billion yuan, reflecting a cumulative year-on-year growth of 3.4%[8] - Private fixed asset investment has seen a year-on-year decline of 1.6%, while non-private investment has increased by 5.9%[8][10] Real Estate and Infrastructure - Real estate investment for the first eight months totaled 69,284 billion yuan, with a cumulative year-on-year decline of 10.2%[10] - Infrastructure investment growth has slowed, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 4.4%[10] Consumer Behavior - Retail sales of consumer goods in August reached 38,726 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.1%, down from 2.7% previously[10] - The restaurant sector showed a recovery with a year-on-year growth of 3.3%, while retail sales growth fell to 1.9%[10] Employment Trends - The urban survey unemployment rate slightly increased to 5.3% in August, compared to 5.2% in the previous month[11] - Employment conditions remain stable, with average working hours at 48.7 hours per week[11] High-Frequency Data Insights - Production remains at low levels, with the operating rate of steel mills in Tangshan at 87.15% as of September 13, 2024[12] - Housing transaction volumes in major cities continue to decline, indicating a weakening real estate market[12][17] Risks and Considerations - Key risks include domestic and international policy changes, unexpected economic fluctuations, and international trade tensions[29]

中药 证券研究报告/专题研究报告 2024 年 09 月 17 日 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------|-----------------|--------|------------------|----------------------------------|----------------------------------------------|----------|-------|------------|-------|-------|--------| | 评级：增持（ 维持 ） \n分析师：祝嘉琦 \n执业证书编号： S0740519040001 | [Table_Finance] 重点公司基本状况 \n简称 | \n股价 \n( 元 ...

[Table_Finance] 重点公司基本状况 [基本状况 Table_Profit] 轻工纺服 证券研究报告 /行业周 报 2024 年 9 月 17 日 评级：增持(维持) 分析师：张潇 执业证书编号：S0740523030001 Email：zhangxiao06@zts.com.cn 分析师：郭美鑫 执业证书编号：S0740520090002 Email：guomx@zts.com.cn 分析师：邹文婕 执业证书编号：S0740523070001 Email：zouwj@zts.com.cn 分析师：吴思涵 执业证书编号：S0740523090002 Email：wush@zts.com.cn 轻工公司数（申万分类） $$^ { 1 5 2 }$$ 轻工行业总市值（亿元） 6,595 轻工行业流通市值（亿元） 2,659 纺服公司数（申万分类） 104 纺服行业总市值（亿元） 4,831 纺服行业流通市值（亿元） 1,884 [Table_QuotePic] 行业-市场走势对比 -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 2023-09-18 2024-03-18 轻工制造(申万) 上证指 ...

、 OpenAI 发布 o1 模型，开启大模型新范式 -中泰通信行业周报（0909-0915） 通信 证券研究报告/行业周报 2024 年 9 月 17 日 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------|----------|--------------------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...