、 专题 | 详细拆解国有大型银行（六家）2024 年半年报： 利润增速边际改善，资产质量保持稳健 银行 证券研究报告/专题研究报告 2024 年 09 月 02 日 ◼ 净非息收入拆解：整体非息收入二季度同比增-2.9%，降幅较一季度收窄 1.5%，其 中手续费收入降幅走扩；其他非息收入+15.8%，增速边际向上，是非息负增收窄的 主要支撑。1、净手续费收入负增 9.9%，相较 1Q24 降幅边际走阔 2.4 个点。邮储、 交行、建行降幅靠前，农行降幅边际收窄。2、上半年债市走牛，净其他非息收入同 比+15.8%，相较 1Q24 同比增速走阔 10.4 个点，是非息收入的主要支撑。 ◼ 资产质量分析：整体稳健；新生不良压力小。1、不良率：不良率稳中有降，存量包 袱较小。1H24 大行整体不良率为 1.28%，上半年保持一个季度下降 1 个 bp 的节奏， 不良整体稳中有降。邮储不良率最低，六大行均边际保持稳定或改善。2、不良净生 成率：大行不良净生成环比略上升，不过仍处于较低水平，不良生成压力总体不高。 累积年化不良生成率为 0.49%；其中邮储银行最低，为 0.37%。变动趋势来看，六大 行累积年化不良生 ...

Industry Investment Rating - Maintain Overweight rating [1] Core Views - State-owned banks' revenue in 1H24 is under marginal pressure due to slowing scale growth, but profit growth has improved marginally due to provision releases [1] - Asset quality remains stable, with high provisions and sufficient capital ensuring sustainable performance [1] - Revenue declined by 3% YoY in 1H24, with net profit down 1% YoY, showing a narrowing decline due to provisions [1] - Non-performing loan (NPL) ratio and special mention loan ratio remain stable or slightly declining, with low new NPL generation pressure [2] - Provision coverage ratio increased by 1.9 percentage points to 243%, providing a thicker safety cushion [3] Revenue and Profit Analysis - Revenue declined by 3% YoY in 1H24, mainly due to slower credit growth, with Agricultural Bank of China (ABC) achieving positive growth of 0.2% [8] - Net profit declined by 1% YoY, with ABC achieving positive growth of 2%, while other major banks saw narrowing declines due to provision releases [10] - Net interest income declined by 3% YoY, with a 1.1% marginal decline, mainly due to slower asset scale expansion [14] - Net non-interest income declined by 2.9% YoY, with other non-interest income increasing by 15.8%, partially offsetting the decline [29] Asset Quality - NPL ratio remained stable or slightly declined, with the overall NPL ratio at 1.28% in 1H24 [33] - New NPL generation rate increased slightly but remained at a low level of 0.49% [34] - Special mention loan ratio declined by 5bp to 1.66%, indicating limited future NPL pressure [36] - Overdue loan ratio increased by 9bp to 1.23%, but remained at a low level [38] Provision Analysis - Provision coverage ratio increased by 1.9 percentage points to 243.09%, with Postal Savings Bank of China (PSBC) having the highest coverage ratio at 325.61% [41] - Provision-to-loan ratio increased by 1bp to 3.12%, with ABC having the highest ratio at 4% [41] - Risk cost and credit cost increased slightly, indicating room for further provision releases [41] Other Financial Indicators - Cost-to-income ratio declined, showing effective cost control measures [3] - Core tier 1 capital adequacy ratio slightly declined by 9bp to 12.31%, remaining at a high level [3] - Major banks announced interim dividend plans, with payout ratios around 30% [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for Agricultural Bank of China (ABC) with 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E PB ratios of 0.64X, 0.59X, and 0.55X respectively [3][52] Core Views - ABC's 2024 H1 revenue increased by 0.2% YoY, turning positive from -1.9% in Q1 2024, while net profit grew by 2.0% YoY, up from -1.6% in Q1 2024 [1][63] - Net interest income rose by 0.1% YoY, driven by stabilized net interest margin (NIM), while non-interest income increased by 0.6% YoY, with fee income declining at a slower pace and other non-interest income showing significant growth [1][63] - The bank's asset quality remained stable, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 1.32% in H1 2024, unchanged from Q1 2024 [47][49] Financial Performance - ABC's H1 2024 net interest margin (NIM) increased by 1bp to 1.45% compared to Q1 2024, with asset yield declining by 11bp to 3.08% and liability cost decreasing by 10bp to 1.83% [10] - The bank's net fee income declined by 7.9% YoY in H1 2024, an improvement from the 10.8% decline in Q1 2024, while other non-interest income surged by 20.8% YoY, up from 11.2% in Q1 2024 [46][63] - ABC's H1 2024 net profit growth was primarily driven by revenue recovery and lower management expense growth [1][63] Asset and Liability Structure - ABC's loan growth slowed in Q2 2024, with total loans increasing by RMB 526.48 billion, down by RMB 83.08 billion YoY [11][13] - Corporate loans grew by RMB 148.33 billion in Q2 2024, down by RMB 363.34 billion YoY, while retail loans increased by RMB 49.38 billion, down by RMB 24.23 billion YoY [11][13] - The bank's deposit growth slowed significantly, with Q2 2024 deposits declining by 5.3% QoQ and decreasing by RMB 1.6 trillion, down by RMB 2.2 trillion YoY [40][43] Asset Quality - ABC's NPL ratio remained stable at 1.32% in H1 2024, with a quarterly annualized NPL formation rate of 0.55%, up by 5bp QoQ [47][49] - The bank's overdue loan ratio stood at 1.07% in H1 2024, down by 1bp from the beginning of the year, while the overdue 90+ days ratio increased by 7.9 percentage points to 52.31% [21][49] - ABC's provision coverage ratio rose slightly to 303.94% in Q2 2024, up by 0.72 percentage points QoQ [21][49] Capital Position - ABC's capital adequacy ratio improved in Q2 2024, with core tier 1 capital adequacy ratio, tier 1 capital adequacy ratio, and total capital adequacy ratio standing at 11.13%, 13.76%, and 18.45% respectively, with changes of -24bp, -1bp, and +5bp QoQ [50] Industry and Market Context - The report highlights ABC's strong fundamentals, including cheap valuation, high dividend yield, excellent asset-liability management, and steady profitability, with ongoing resolution of legacy risks and improving asset quality [3][52]

、 深度综述与拆分 | 42 家上市银行半年报:利润增速转正；息差同比降幅收敛、资产质量平稳 银行 证券研究报告/行业深度报告 2024 年 09 月 1 日 评级：增持（维持） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------|----------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------|--------------|---------------------------|-----------|------------------------------------------------------------ ...

评级：增持（维持） 分析师：陈宁玉 执业证书编号：S0740517020004 Email：chenny@zts.com.cn 分析师：杨雷 执业证书编号：S0740524060005 Email：yanglei01@zts.com.cn 研究助理：佘雨晴 Email：sheyq@zts.com.cn | --- | --- | |---------------------------|---------| | | | | [Table_Profit] 基本状况 | | | 上市公司数 | 122 | | 行业总市值 ( 百万元 ) | 3988027 | | 行业流通市值 ( 百万元 ) | 1238208 | [Table_QuotePic] 行业-市场走势对比 -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 公司持有该股票比例 [Table_Report] 相关报告 [Table_Finance] 重点公司基本状况 [投资要点 Table_Summary ] ◼ 本周沪深 300 下跌 0.17%，创业板上涨 2.17%，其中通信板块下跌 0.64%，板块价格 表现弱于大盘；通信（中 ...

[Table_Industry] 分析师：郭中伟 执业证书编号：S0740521110004 Email：guozw@zts.com.cn 分析师：安永超 执业证书编号：S0740522090002 Email：anyc@zts.com.cn 分析师：谢鸿鹤 执业证书编号：S0740517080003 Email：xiehh@zts.com.cn [Table_Profit] 基本状况 上市公司数 131 行业总市值(亿元) 24,886.15 行业流通市值(亿元) 22,002.84 行业-市场走势对比 -30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 有色金属（申万） 沪深300 2023-092023-102023-112023-122024-012024-022024-032024-042024-052024-062024-072024-08 公司持有该股票比例 [Table_Report] 图表：国内锡精矿进口-缅甸（吨） 2023 2024 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 数据来源：Mysteel、中泰证券研究所 证券研究报告/行业周报 20 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the publishing industry, suggesting that the sector is expected to gradually recover as it approaches the back-to-school season and promotional activities increase [2][8]. Core Viewpoints - The publishing industry reported revenue of 71.11 billion yuan in H1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 0.4%, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 23.6% to 7.16 billion yuan. The revenue and profit were under pressure due to increased tax expenses from policy changes and weak recovery in general book consumption. However, educational materials played a crucial role in maintaining positive revenue growth [2][8]. - The report highlights that the publishing market's recovery is anticipated as it enters Q3, coinciding with the back-to-school period and a surge in book sales promotions [2][8]. - The report emphasizes the potential for publishing companies to leverage their cash reserves for acquisitions and capital operations, enhancing capital efficiency. Companies with strong educational resources are expected to capitalize on their financial strength and content richness to expand into digital education and related services, which could drive future growth [2][8]. Summary by Sections Central State-Owned Publishing Groups - Central state-owned publishing groups faced slight operational pressure, with overall revenue and profit impacted by a 6.2% year-on-year decline in the retail book market. However, companies like CITIC Publishing managed to increase their gross profit margin through strategic initiatives [16][19]. - The report notes that these groups maintained stable expense ratios and had sufficient cash reserves to support ongoing operations [16][19]. Local State-Owned Publishing Groups - Local state-owned publishing groups demonstrated stable operations in H1 2024, with revenue growth driven by educational materials and a steady increase in K12 student numbers in Shandong Province. The overall profit for these groups reached 9.39 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.6% [19][20]. - The report indicates that these groups effectively controlled expenses, maintaining stable expense ratios and benefiting from strong demand for core educational products [21][23]. Private Publishing Companies - Private publishing companies exhibited significant performance divergence, with some like Century Tianhong achieving growth due to strong demand for educational products, while others like Zhongwen Online faced revenue declines due to changes in consolidation [26]. - The report highlights that the competitive landscape among private companies is influenced by strategic positioning, product design, and marketing efforts, leading to notable performance fluctuations [26].

2 3JKLMNO PN Q !"#$%& '()*+,$S0740522020001 Email$zengbiao@zts.com.cn !"#$-. '()*+,$S0740522040004 Email$wupeng@zts.com.cn !"#$/01 '()*+,$S0740522080002 Email$zhubr@zts.com.cn !"#$23. '()*+,$S0740522100005 Email$zhaoyp02@zts.com.cn | --- | --- | |-----------------------|--------| | | | | [Table_Profit] RSTU | | | 45678 | 357 | | 9(:5; (<=) | 43,599 | | 9(>?5;(<= ) | 37,405 | [Table_QuotePic] DE-VWXYZ[ !"#$%&'( )*300 -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 2023/92023/112024/12024/32024/52024/7 67@ABCDEF [Table_Report] \] ...

公司持有该股票比例 相关报告 中天科技（600522.SH）/通信 证券研究报告/公司点评 2024 年 9 月 2 日 24Q2 业绩环比改善，能源网络在手订单充足 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------|-----------------------------------------------|------------------------|----------------------|------------------|---------------------------|----------------| | [Table_Title] 评级：买入（维持） [Table_Industry] \n市场价格： 12.49 | | [Table_Finance 公司盈利预测及估值 1] \n指标 | \n2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" investment rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights a recovery in lithium prices due to inventory depletion, with a focus on the supply-side uncertainties affecting small metal prices [2][3]. - The report recommends investing in supply-rigid varieties such as rare earths, tin, antimony, and tungsten, anticipating a gradual recovery in demand for rare earths and a bullish trend for tin and tungsten prices [2][3]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The non-ferrous metals sector showed strong performance, with the Shenwan Non-ferrous Index rising by 1.06%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 1.23 percentage points [5]. - Lithium carbonate prices increased by 2.74% to 75,000 CNY/ton, while lithium hydroxide prices decreased by 0.33% to 75,300 CNY/ton [7][9]. Industry Chain Sentiment - The photovoltaic sector saw a year-on-year increase in new installations, with July 2024 adding 21.05 GW, a 12.3% increase compared to the previous year [13]. - In the new energy vehicle sector, production and sales reached 984,000 and 991,000 units respectively in July, marking year-on-year growth of 22.3% and 27% [14]. - Battery production in July totaled 91.8 GWh, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 8.6% and a year-on-year increase of 33.1% [26]. Lithium Market - Lithium inventory depletion is stabilizing prices, with the weekly production of lithium carbonate at 13,450 tons, a slight increase of 0.1% [2][3]. - The report notes that current lithium prices are approaching the industry's marginal cost, leading to potential production cuts from major suppliers [2]. Rare Earths - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has set total mining and separation quotas for rare earths in 2024, indicating a slowdown in supply growth [3]. - Prices for praseodymium and neodymium oxide rose by 3.94% to 408,500 CNY/ton, while dysprosium oxide prices fell by 3.39% to 1,710,000 CNY/ton [9]. Tin and Antimony - Tin prices are expected to rise due to supply constraints, with SHFE tin prices at 264,100 CNY/ton, down 1.29% [3]. - Antimony prices remain stable, with domestic antimony concentrate prices at 138,000 CNY/ton, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.73% [10].