Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - The report emphasizes that technology remains a key focus of fiscal policy support, with a strong push towards innovation and the development of new productive forces [6][7] - It highlights the importance of fiscal reforms, particularly in the areas of tax and finance IT, which are expected to accelerate and create investment opportunities [4][33] - The report notes that network security is increasingly recognized as a cornerstone of national security, with significant growth potential in the market [51][50] Summary by Sections Basic Conditions - The industry comprises 337 listed companies with a total market value of 37,167.20 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 32,171.06 billion yuan [2] Policy Insights - Recent fiscal policies emphasize support for technology and innovation, with a focus on enhancing the integration of digital and real economies [6][7] - The government plans to expand the use of special bonds to support strategic emerging industries, which is expected to improve budget conditions for local governments [9][54] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies in the finance IT sector such as Kingdee International, Bosi Software, and Tax Friend, as well as cybersecurity firms like Sangfor and Qi An Xin [4][33] - It also recommends attention to companies involved in innovation and government IT, such as Chengmai Technology and Softcom Power [4][33] Financial Support and Expenditure - The report indicates that the overall fiscal expenditure for 2024 is set to increase, with a budget of 28.55 trillion yuan, which will support high-quality development [52] - The central government has significant room for debt issuance, which will help alleviate local government debt pressures and support economic development [53][54]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an initial investment rating of "Buy" for the company [1]. Core Insights - The company focuses on integrated cloud and network security, leveraging its core business in identity security while exploring new growth areas in emerging fields [1][6]. - The company has shown a significant recovery in revenue and gross margin, with expectations for continued improvement in profitability as market conditions stabilize [1][18]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, established in 2015, has become a leader in China's cybersecurity software market, emphasizing its understanding of networks, clouds, and security [6]. - It has maintained a strong position in the identity and digital trust market for seven consecutive years and ranks second in endpoint security [6]. Business Structure - The core business is built around identity security, with a focus on cloud network security and endpoint security [13]. - The company has a concentrated shareholding structure, with significant control by the founder and related entities [8]. Financial Analysis - Revenue has shown a recovery trend, with a notable increase of 17.31% in the first half of 2024, following a decline of 6.56% in 2023 [18]. - The gross margin has improved to 54.86% in the first half of 2024, reflecting effective cost control and business adjustments [20]. Industry Context - The domestic cybersecurity software market is rapidly growing, supported by regulatory frameworks that promote industry standardization and technological upgrades [6][18]. - The company is well-positioned in various segments of the cybersecurity market, including cloud security, identity security, and advanced threat detection [1][6]. Mergers and Acquisitions - The company has made strategic acquisitions, including a significant stake in Xiamen Fuyun Information, enhancing its cloud security capabilities [6]. - A planned acquisition of a stake in AsiaInfo Technology aims to integrate digital solutions with cybersecurity products, potentially boosting revenue and profitability [1][6]. Future Growth Prospects - The company is actively exploring growth opportunities in the digital economy, particularly through the development of a comprehensive security network that includes satellite internet and AI computing capabilities [1][6]. - The focus on standardized products and enhanced marketing efficiency is expected to further strengthen profitability in the future [1][6].

Core Insights - The report highlights that the increase in social financing in September was 3.76 trillion yuan, which is 372.2 billion yuan less than the same period last year, but higher than the expected 3.52 trillion yuan [3][4] - The structure of social financing indicates that government bond financing continues to support social financing, with new government bond financing reaching 1.54 trillion yuan, an increase of 543.3 billion yuan year-on-year [3][4] - The report suggests that the future of social financing will depend on the effectiveness of policy implementation [3][4] Social Financing Situation - In September, the total social financing increased by 3.76 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8%, although the growth rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month [3][4] - The new RMB loans in September amounted to 1.97 trillion yuan, which is a decrease of 563.9 billion yuan compared to the same period last year [3][4] - The report notes that the demand for effective credit remains relatively insufficient, as evidenced by the negative year-on-year growth in short-term loans and bills [3][4] Credit Situation - The new loans in September were 1.59 trillion yuan, which is 720 billion yuan less than the same period last year, indicating a continued decline in credit growth [3][4] - Short-term loans increased, while medium and long-term loans remained low, although there is an expectation for stabilization in residential credit due to adjustments in mortgage rates [3][4] - The report indicates that non-bank credit decreased by 270.4 billion yuan, which is a larger reduction compared to the previous year [3][4] Deposit Situation - In September, total deposits increased significantly, with resident deposits rising by 2.2 trillion yuan and corporate deposits increasing by 770 billion yuan [4] - The increase in deposits is attributed to a rapid rise in the stock market, leading to a substantial inflow of funds into the market [4] - Non-bank deposits saw a notable increase of 910 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth [4] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on core banking assets such as Ningbo Bank, China Merchants Bank, and Industrial Bank, as well as selecting undervalued city commercial banks [4] - It suggests that large banks with high dividend yields, such as Agricultural Bank of China and Bank of China, are likely to benefit from the weak economic recovery and debt resolution [4]

Group 1: Core Insights - The current market sentiment is influenced by pre-holiday expectations, leading to a significant opening on Tuesday, but subsequent adjustments reflect a correction in policy expectations [2][6][8] - The report emphasizes that the recent policy changes represent a phase shift in focus rather than a complete reversal of the policy framework, maintaining a commitment to "high-quality development" [2][6][7] - The anticipated issuance of special bonds is expected to be more targeted and efficient, with potential amounts being lower than market expectations [2][6][7] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the main focus for the market post-holiday will likely remain on technology stocks, particularly those related to domestic substitution in sectors like core military industry, computing power, and semiconductor equipment [8] - Investors are advised to consider accumulating dividend assets and long-term bonds during market dips, as the focus shifts towards new productivity-related technology sectors [8] Group 3: Market Review and Outlook - The major indices experienced declines during the week, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 3.56% and the Shenzhen Component Index down by 4.45% [9][10] - Most industry sectors saw declines, particularly in consumer staples and real estate, indicating a broader market pullback [9][10] - The trading activity showed a decrease in turnover rates across major indices, reflecting a cooling off in market enthusiasm [13][17]

Investment Rating - The report rates the coal industry as "Overweight" for the first time [2]. Core Views - The report emphasizes the expectation of intensified fiscal policy, suggesting that investors should seize certain trading opportunities. It highlights a series of targeted incremental policy measures aimed at stabilizing growth, expanding domestic demand, and mitigating risks [10][11]. - The coal industry is expected to maintain a high level of prosperity due to the ongoing capacity cycle driven by supply-side reforms, which have effectively reduced excess capacity [9]. Summary by Sections 1. Core Views and Operational Tracking - The core logic indicates that the coal industry will continue to experience high prosperity due to the successful implementation of supply-side reforms that have significantly reduced excess capacity [9]. - The report tracks operational performance, noting that major companies like China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal achieved year-on-year increases in coal production and sales [11][12]. 2. Coal Price Tracking - The report provides a detailed analysis of coal prices, indicating that the Qinhuangdao thermal coal price index (Q5500) was reported at 716.00 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.3% but a year-on-year decrease of 2.6% [14][15]. - The report also highlights the price trends for coking coal and thermal coal, with significant fluctuations noted in various regions [14]. 3. Industry Performance - The report notes that the coal industry has a total market value of approximately 20,145.07 billion CNY, with a circulating market value of about 19,630.07 billion CNY [2]. - It identifies key companies within the industry, such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and others, which are expected to benefit from the favorable policy environment and improving market conditions [10][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate sector [1] Core Insights - The report highlights a significant decline in the real estate market, with the Shenwan Real Estate Index dropping by 8.31% and the CSI 300 Index down by 3.25%, resulting in a relative return of -5.06% [1][8] - The report indicates that the fundamental conditions of the sector are nearing a bottom, with ongoing policy support expected to lead to a valuation recovery [4] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - The Shenwan Real Estate Index fell by 8.31%, while the CSI 300 Index decreased by 3.25%, indicating underperformance of the sector compared to the broader market [1][8] 2. Industry Fundamentals - For the week of October 4-10, the tracked 38 key cities saw a total of 16,872 new homes sold, representing a year-on-year decline of 35.6% and a month-on-month decline of 45.9%. The total transaction area was 1.656 million square meters, down 38.5% year-on-year and 52.2% month-on-month [16][27] - In the same week, the tracked 16 key cities recorded 10,877 second-hand homes sold, with a year-on-year decline of 16.5% but a month-on-month increase of 4.7%. The total area sold was 1.003 million square meters, down 18% year-on-year but up 1.4% month-on-month [4][37] 3. Inventory Situation - The total inventory of commercial housing in 17 key cities was 196,563,000 square meters, with a month-on-month change of -0.1% and a depletion cycle of 170.5 weeks [38] 4. Land Market Analysis - In the week of October 4-10, land supply was 30,613,000 square meters, down 30.6% year-on-year, while land transaction volume was 10,213,000 square meters, down 74.3% year-on-year [4] 5. Financing Analysis - Real estate companies issued a total of 1 billion yuan in credit bonds during the week, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 81.5% [4]

分析师：何佳烨 执业证书编号：S0740523060002 Email：hejy01@zts.com.cn 2024 年 9 月 24 日国新办举行新闻发布会，人民银行、金融监管总局、证监会负责人 介绍金融支持经济高质量发展有关情况，并宣布出台一系列政策。在房地产市场领域， 924 新闻发布会进一步提出了一系列支持房地产市场的政策，包括降低现有房贷的利 率、统一最低首付比例、以及优化保障性住房再贷款政策等。926 政治局会议未再强 调"房住不炒"的原则，而是首次提出了"促进房地产市场止跌回稳"的目标，这标 志着房地产政策的一次重大转变。在支持权益市场方面，924 新闻发布会也宣布了一 系列旨在支持股票市场稳定发展的政策。央行行长宣布将推出证券、基金、保险公司 互换便利和股票回购增持专项再贷款两项新的货币政策工具，926 中央金融办和证监 会联合发布了《关于推动中长期资金入市的指导意见》，旨在提升对中长期资金权益 投资的监管包容度，并推动各类中长期资金进入市场。会后，万得全 A 指数 5 个交易 日上涨 26%。与此同时，A 股成交额不断放大，10 月 8 日高达 34,835.43 亿元，创下 近年来新高。 ...

美联储面对平衡双重使命的挑战 ——海外经济与政策周报 证券研究报告/宏观定期报告 2024 年 10 月 13 日 分析师：夏知非 执业证书编号：S0740523110007 Email：xiazf01@zts.com.cn 相关报告 报告摘要 一周海外重要事件汇总： 中东：黎以冲突持续，以方拟报复伊朗； 美国：美联储面对平衡双重使命的挑战，内部分歧加剧；飓风期间美国就业数据存在 低于预期的可能；美国 9 月 PPI 增速回落、10 月密歇根消费者信心指数初值回落； 欧洲：下周欧央行料将降息 25 基点；德国政府下调经济预测； 日本：通胀压制实际收入与消费信心，日央行仍有加息空间。 美国高频指标跟踪：周度经济现状边际转弱，周度就业降温，生产分化，零售增速平 稳，房地产购买需求上升，金融市场流动性风险较小。特朗普支持率回升，分裂政府 概率仍大。 全球资产表现：本周 A 股、港股在市场对中国政策激烈博弈下回调，美股、日股小幅 上涨；除中国外主要国家 10 年国债收益率普升；离岸人民币升值，美元指数上升， 其余货币普遍贬值；商品价格变化存在分化，有色金属回落，油价、金价上涨。向前 看，在短期（至 11 月上旬美股大 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the transportation sector [1]. Core Insights - The transportation sector has experienced a decline of 6.4% this week, underperforming the broader market, with no sub-sectors showing gains. The top three declines were in the airline index (-10.0%), airport index (-8.5%), and logistics composite index (-6.9%) [1]. - The average daily flight operations and aircraft utilization rates varied week-on-week, with most airlines reporting a decrease in flight numbers and utilization [1][2]. - The price of aviation fuel has decreased, potentially alleviating cost pressures during the traditional off-peak season for airlines [3]. Summary by Sections 1. Airline Data - From October 7 to October 11, the average daily flights for major airlines showed a decline: Southern Airlines (2385.80 flights, -4.33%), Eastern Airlines (2287.80 flights, -6.43%), Air China (1645.00 flights, -2.61%), Spring Airlines (487.60 flights, -8.10%), and others [1]. - Average aircraft utilization rates also decreased during the same period, with Southern Airlines at 8.30 hours/day (-4.60%), Eastern Airlines at 7.70 hours/day (-7.23%), and others showing similar trends [1]. 2. Airport Data - The average daily flight operations for domestic routes from October 7 to October 11 showed declines across major airports: Shenzhen Bao'an (1016.20 flights, -1.72%), Beijing Capital (910.60 flights, -2.12%), Guangzhou Baiyun (1163.60 flights, -1.99%), and others [2]. - International route operations also saw a decrease, with Shenzhen Bao'an (91.60 flights, -1.20%), Beijing Capital (192.60 flights, -0.13%), and others reporting similar reductions [2]. 3. Market Performance - The report highlights that the aviation sector is expected to benefit from the recovery of international routes and improved operational efficiency, leading to better performance for airlines and airports [3]. - Key recommendations include focusing on companies like Huaxia Airlines, Spring Airlines, and Jixiang Airlines, as well as monitoring Shanghai Airport and Baiyun Airport for potential investment opportunities [3][11].

Group 1: Fiscal Policy Insights - The Ministry of Finance is expected to announce the scale of incremental fiscal tools at the upcoming National People's Congress Standing Committee meeting in late October or early November[1] - The actual public finance revenue for 2024 may fall short of the budget by 1.5 trillion yuan, necessitating adjustments to the budget and potential issuance of additional government bonds[1] - The leadership indicated that the deficit rate may exceed 3% in the future, suggesting a more flexible fiscal policy approach[1] Group 2: Economic Recovery Strategies - The focus is on addressing insufficient demand through a combination of short-term and long-term fiscal measures, with an emphasis on repairing the balance sheets of local governments, enterprises, and households[1] - Four policies currently in decision-making processes aim to enhance local government financial capacity and support state-owned banks' capital, thereby boosting credit availability[1] - Allowing special bonds for land acquisition and supporting the cash flow of real estate companies is expected to stabilize housing prices and improve household balance sheets[1] Group 3: Market Implications - The combination of deficit financing, special bonds, and long-term bonds is seen as a more sustainable approach to enhancing market risk appetite compared to one-off large-scale stimulus measures[1] - Future observations will focus on the outcomes of the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference and the actual effects of the fiscal policies on the economy and expectations[1] - The report highlights potential risks from domestic and international policy changes and geopolitical conflicts that could impact the effectiveness of these fiscal measures[1]