证券研究报告 2024年8月19日 【中泰电子】AI全视角—科技大厂财报专题｜ 三星、西部数据24Q2季报点评：业绩超预期， 24H2服务器需求强劲 分析师：王芳 S0740521120002，杨旭S0740521120001 1 三星摘要 24Q2 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------|-------|------------|-------|----------|------------| | | 实际 | yoy | qoq | 市场预期 | 较市场预期 | | 营收（万亿韩元） | | 74.1 23.4% | 3.0% | | 73.2 1.2% | ——DX（终端：移动通讯、网络、影像显示、数位 家电、健康医疗） 42.1 4.6% -11.0% ——DS（半导体） 28.6 93.9% 23.4% ——SDC（显示面板） 7.7 18.1% 41.9% ——Harman（汽车电子、音响、物联网） 3.6 3.4% 13.1% 净利润（GAAP，万亿韩元） 9.6 523.3% 45.6% 8.0 20.4% EPS（G ...

Investment Rating - Buy rating (首次) with a target price of 6.55 RMB [2] Core Views - The company is positioned to benefit from both domestic and international demand in the construction machinery sector, with traditional and emerging businesses driving growth [2] - The domestic construction machinery cycle has bottomed out, and the company's traditional products are expected to benefit from the upcoming replacement cycle [4] - Emerging businesses such as mining machinery and aerial work platforms are contributing to the second growth curve, with strategic emerging industries growing nearly 30% in 2023 [4] - State-owned enterprise (SOE) reforms are gradually releasing results, with profitability expected to improve [4] Company Overview - XCMG is a global leader in construction machinery, ranking third globally and first among Chinese companies, with a 5.3% market share [7] - The company has a comprehensive product portfolio, including earthmoving machinery, lifting machinery, piling machinery, concrete machinery, and road machinery, as well as strategic emerging industries like mining machinery and aerial work platforms [10] - XCMG has a strong presence in the global market, with operations in over 190 countries and regions, and overseas revenue accounting for 40% of total revenue in 2023 [50] Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024-2026 is projected to be 1027/1154/1296 billion RMB, with year-on-year growth of 10.6%/12.3%/12.4% [5] - Net profit for 2024-2026 is expected to be 68.2/88.2/109.4 billion RMB, with year-on-year growth of 28.0%/29.3%/24.1% [5] - The company's gross margin and net margin have improved, with a gross margin of 22.38% and a net margin of 5.64% in 2023 [24] Industry Analysis - The domestic construction machinery market has bottomed out, with excavator sales turning positive in March 2024, signaling the start of a new replacement cycle [31] - The global construction machinery market is projected to reach 1570.6 billion USD in 2023, with China accounting for 21.8% of global exports [35] - The mining machinery market is expected to grow, with global sales reaching 468.4 billion RMB in 2023 and projected to grow to 714.9 billion RMB by 2030, with a CAGR of 5.7% [38] Emerging Businesses - Mining machinery and aerial work platforms are key growth drivers, with mining machinery sales expected to grow at a CAGR of 40%/30%/30% from 2024-2026 [5] - Aerial work platforms are seeing strong growth, with the company's Mexico factory expected to boost overseas sales [44] SOE Reforms and Profitability - The company has implemented mixed-ownership reforms, including employee stock ownership and professional manager systems, which are expected to improve profitability [52] - The company has set net profit targets of 58 and 65 billion RMB for 2024 and 2025, respectively, to incentivize management and employees [28] Global Expansion - XCMG has a strong global presence, with 40 overseas offices, 150 spare parts centers, and over 300 overseas dealers, covering more than 190 countries and regions [50] - Overseas revenue accounted for 40% of total revenue in 2023, with export gross margins 3 percentage points higher than domestic margins [50]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [2]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leading manufacturer of military and civilian large and medium-sized aircraft in China, benefiting from increasing demand and the implementation of equity incentives that drive high-quality growth [2][3]. - The company has a significant strategic position in the military aircraft sector, with core platforms undergoing series development and military trade opening up long-term opportunities [3][4]. - The domestic civil aircraft sector is also poised for growth, with the company being a key supplier for major projects like the C919, which is expected to ramp up production significantly by 2030 [3][4]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is a comprehensive base for the research, design, production, and maintenance of large and medium-sized military and civilian aircraft, backed by AVIC (Aviation Industry Corporation of China) [9][11]. - It has undergone significant restructuring and resource integration to focus on complete aircraft manufacturing and component production [9][11]. Financial Analysis - The company has shown steady revenue growth, with a projected revenue of 460.82 billion, 527.22 billion, and 605.32 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [4][13]. - The net profit is expected to reach 10.82 billion, 13.49 billion, and 16.69 billion yuan for the same years, indicating a strong recovery and growth trajectory [4][13]. Military Aircraft Business - The company holds a monopoly in the manufacturing of large and medium-sized military transport and bomber aircraft, with platforms like the Y-20 and H-6 being central to its operations [3][18]. - The military transport aircraft segment is crucial for strategic deployment capabilities, with ongoing developments in platforms like the Y-20 and Y-9E [3][18]. Civil Aircraft Business - The company is a core supplier for the C919, ARJ21, and AG600 aircraft, with significant responsibilities in the production of major components [3][4]. - The C919 is expected to achieve a delivery capacity of 100 aircraft per year by 2030, marking a significant milestone for the domestic aviation industry [3][4]. International Outsourcing - The company has established deep partnerships with Boeing and Airbus, focusing on creating a world-class wing manufacturing center, which is expected to contribute positively to its revenue [3][4].

[Table_Industry] [Table_Title] !"#$%&'%( !"#$%4.58 & '()%*+ ,-./01%S0740522020001 Email%zengbiao@zts.com.cn '()%23 ,-./01%S0740522040004 Email%wupeng@zts.com.cn [Table_Profit] )*+, 456(785) 1,116 9:56(785) 1,115 !#(&) 4.58 !;(78&) 5,112 9:!;(78&) 5,107 [-./01 Table_QuotePic] -234567 -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 2023-082023-092023-102023-112023-122024-012024-022024-032024-042024-052024-062024-072024-08 !"#$ %&300 <=>?@5ABC 89:; 1 DEFGHIJKLM%NOPQ RSTUVWMXYZ[\ 2]DEFGHIJKLM 23 ^F&24 H_F`a%24Q1 -bcdefT -ghi+UVWMjklmno\ ...

[Table_Industry] [评Ta级ble：_T买itle入] （维持） 市场价格：15.57 分析师：祝嘉琦 执业证书编号：S0740519040001 电话：021-20315150 Email：zhujq@zts.com.cn [公Ta司ble盈_F利in预anc测e]及估值 指标 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 营业收入（百万元） 10544.91 11474.16 12716.23 14004.28 15477.21 增长率 yoy% 17.92% 8.81% 10.82% 10.13% 10.52% 净利润（百万元） 989.17 1055.34 1138.72 1271.50 1478.92 增长率 yoy% 3.52% 6.69% 7.90% 11.66% 16.31% 每股收益（元） 0.84 0.90 0.97 1.08 1.25 每股现金流量 1.13 0.88 0.75 1.07 1.23 净资产收益率 17.95% 16.96% 15.84% 15.78% 16.26% P/E 18.55 17.39 16.11 14.43 12.41 PEG 5 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative performance increase of over 15% compared to the benchmark index within the next 6 to 12 months [71]. Core Insights - The company is a well-known international provider of photovoltaic energy storage systems and products, primarily serving overseas customers with energy storage inverters and batteries [3][14]. - The company has experienced rapid revenue growth, with a CAGR of 128% from 2019 to 2022, and a significant increase in net profit during the same period [3][19]. - The report highlights the strong demand for household photovoltaic and energy storage systems in emerging markets such as Southeast Asia, South Africa, and Latin America, driven by high electricity demand and insufficient grid infrastructure [3][36]. - The company is actively expanding into new markets, with a notable increase in revenue from non-European regions, particularly Asia [3][54]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue is projected to be 45.6 billion, 56.5 billion, and 71.0 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 1.9%, 23.9%, and 25.6% [63][66]. - The net profit for the same years is expected to be 4.8 billion, 8.0 billion, and 10.9 billion yuan, with growth rates of -55%, 68%, and 37% [67]. - The company's overall gross margin is projected to improve from 39.9% in 2024 to 41.7% in 2026 [66]. Revenue Structure - The majority of the company's revenue comes from energy storage inverters and batteries, with energy storage batteries accounting for 52.5% of revenue in 2023 [21][19]. - The company has maintained a stable gross margin, with energy storage battery margins ranging from 33% to 35% over recent years [23][51]. Market Expansion - The company is focusing on expanding its presence in emerging markets, where demand for energy storage solutions is high due to frequent power outages and the need for reliable electricity supply [3][36]. - The report notes that the company has developed cost-effective energy storage solutions tailored for these markets, enhancing its competitive edge [3][56]. Competitive Position - The company has steadily increased its market share in the energy storage sector, with a rise in the market share of household energy storage batteries from 1.6% in 2020 to 5.4% in 2023 [48][21]. - The report indicates that the company's pricing strategy and product development are aligned with market demands, particularly in price-sensitive regions [3][56].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][6] Core Views - The company has shown steady performance with revenue and net profit growth. In H1 2024, domestic network business faced pressure due to the overall investment environment, while international business continued to grow at double-digit rates. The company has successfully expanded its enterprise and consumer business, achieving revenue growth of 56.1% and 14.3% respectively [4][5] - The company is actively innovating in the connectivity field, with 5G-A expected to contribute to new growth. It ranks second globally in the shipment of 5G base stations and core networks, and has launched several innovative products in collaboration with major operators [4][6] - The company is transitioning towards a "connection + computing power" model, enhancing its market space by focusing on AI computing power and related products. It has maintained a leading position in the domestic operator market for servers and storage [4][6] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue (in million CNY) is projected to grow from 124,251 in 2023A to 172,307 in 2026E, with a CAGR of approximately 11% [2][7] - Net profit (in million CNY) is expected to increase from 9,326 in 2023A to 14,423 in 2026E, reflecting a growth rate of 17% in 2026E [2][6] - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 1.95 in 2024E to 3.02 in 2026E [2][6] Cost Management and Profitability - The company has effectively controlled costs, with a decrease in sales, management, R&D, and financial expense ratios in Q2 2024 compared to the previous year. The net profit margin improved to 9.14%, while the gross margin was 40.47% [4][6] - R&D expenses accounted for 20.4% of revenue, with over 90,000 global patent applications, including around 5,000 in the AI field [4][6] Market Position and Future Outlook - The company is positioned as a leader in the domestic ICT sector, actively expanding into IT and innovative second-line businesses. The forecasted net profits for 2024-2026 are 106.45 billion CNY, 122.92 billion CNY, and 144.23 billion CNY respectively [5][6] - The company is expected to benefit from the ongoing digital transformation and the increasing demand for AI-related products and services [4][5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative performance increase of over 15% compared to the benchmark index within the next 6 to 12 months [12]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 8.845 billion yuan for the first half of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 52.2%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was -2.212 billion yuan, showing slight improvement [3]. - The company is experiencing continuous improvement in sales and gross margin, with Q2 2024 revenue reaching 5.359 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.6% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 53.7%. The gross margin for Q2 2024 was 2.8%, up 8 percentage points year-on-year [4]. - The company is significantly increasing its investment in smart driving technology, with R&D expenses in Q2 2024 amounting to 701 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 70.7% [5]. - The partnership with Stellantis is deepening, with nearly 2,000 units of the C10 and T03 models shipped to Europe, and plans to expand sales outlets in Europe by over 200 by the end of 2024 [6]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 32.539 billion yuan in 2024, 64.610 billion yuan in 2025, and 88.200 billion yuan in 2026, with growth rates of 94.3%, 98.6%, and 36.5% respectively [8][10]. - The net profit forecast shows a loss of 3.405 billion yuan in 2024, a profit of 0.980 billion yuan in 2025, and a profit of 2.086 billion yuan in 2026 [8][10]. - The company’s price-to-book (P/B) ratio is projected to be 2.9 in 2024 and 2.4 in 2026, indicating a potential valuation adjustment as profitability improves [8]. Key Financial Metrics - The company’s total revenue for 2023 is projected at 16.747 billion yuan, with a significant increase to 88.200 billion yuan by 2026 [8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to improve from -3.15 yuan in 2024 to 1.56 yuan in 2026 [8][10]. - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to turn positive at 20% by 2026, indicating a recovery in profitability [8].

VGTAISECURITIES 一周思考（第33周） 食品饮料 证券研完报告/行业周报 2024年8月18日 评级：增持（维持） 重点公司基本状况 E-mail: zhaoxpezts.com.cn 分新师：熊欣聘 投资要点 分新师：要诗雨 白酒半年报季将近，龙头股息率价值吕显 中泰证券 分新师：范动松 商称 既价(元) EPS 2025E PE 2022 2023 2024E 2022 2023 2024E 2025E PEG 执业证书编号：S0740517030001 电话：021-20315138 武州茅台 1431. 20 19.08 20. 60 五松 125, 01 E入 Enail: fanjsezts.con.cn 2.80 分析师：赵宸彭 183, 80 0.86 执业证书编号：S0740524010001 实升食品 75, 90 E入 各活：股价为2024年8月16日收量价 执业证书编号：S0740519080002 白酒：中秋检验业绩支择，分红提升预期上行。距白酒传统季中秋节还有一 Enai1: xiongxwezts. con. cn 个月，经销商节前打款和终端备 今年的中秋国庆和明年 ...

通信 评级：增持（维持） 分析师：陈宁玉 执业证书编予：S0740517020004 Email: .chenny@zts.com.cn 分析师：杨高 执业证书编予：S0740524060005 Email: syanglei01@zts.com.cn 研究助理： 余 商 晴 Email: sheyq@zts.com.cn 系本状况 上帝公司数122 行业总市值(百万元)4003783 行业流通市值(百万元)1258376 ■ 行业一市场主要对比 不用 - GB200 预计四季度出貨，重視运营商配量价值 -中泰通信行业周报 (0812-0818) 证券研究报告/行业周报 2024 年 8 月 18 日 重点公司基本状况 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------| | 商 作 | 股价 | (无) | 2023 | 2024E | EPS | | 2026E | 2023 | | 中所想创 | ...