Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry [8][13][57] Core Viewpoints - The ongoing global tariff disputes have led to significant fluctuations in base metal prices, with a potential for limited further downside in prices as negative sentiment dissipates [8][13][57] - The report emphasizes the importance of identifying the next investment opportunities, particularly in rigid supply commodities like aluminum and copper [8][13][57] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The A-share market experienced an overall decline, with the non-ferrous metal sector underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.26 percentage points [20][22] - Domestic metal prices saw a substantial drop, with LME copper, aluminum, lead, and zinc showing weekly changes of -4.6%, -3.6%, -1.6%, and -2.1% respectively [22][20] Macroeconomic Factors - In March, China's CPI decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, while the PPI fell by 2.5% [35][40] - The U.S. CPI for March was reported at 2.4%, indicating a short-term inflation bottom, with the dollar index declining to 99.77 [40][41] - The Eurozone showed signs of economic recovery, with manufacturing PMI rising to 48.6 and services PMI at 51 [49][51] Base Metals Inventory - The report highlights a comprehensive destocking trend across base metals, with aluminum prices dropping below 20,000 yuan due to tariff disruptions [6][55] - For aluminum, the operating capacity remained stable at 43.805 million tons, with production holding steady at 84.01 tons [7][55] - Global copper inventories saw a significant reduction, with domestic inventories decreasing by 5.04% to 358,800 tons [10][11] Aluminum and Alumina Insights - The aluminum processing sector's average operating rate fell to 62.2%, reflecting a cautious market sentiment [7][55] - Alumina production decreased due to concentrated maintenance events, leading to a short-term tightening of supply [8][9] - The report notes that alumina prices have declined, with the latest price at 2,881 yuan per ton, down 4.92% from the previous week [9][95] Copper and Zinc Analysis - The copper concentrate processing fees have continued to decline, with domestic electrolytic copper production at 224,900 tons, a slight increase from the previous week [10][11] - Zinc production has increased, with domestic refined zinc output rising to 118,300 tons, while global inventories continue to decrease [11][12]

风电设备 执业证书编号：S0740522020001 Email：zengbiao@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740522040004 Email：wupeng@zts.com.cn | 基本状况 | | | --- | --- | | 总股本(百万股) | 637.75 | | 流通股本(百万股) | 630.92 | | 市价(元) | 22.76 | | 市值(百万元) | 14,515.18 | | 流通市值(百万元) | 14,359.75 | 1、《海外发货节奏有序，订单充沛 支撑业绩释放》2024-12-01 大金重工（002487.SZ） 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2025 年 04 月 13 日 事件：公司发布 2024 年年报，2024 年实现营收 37.80 亿，同比-12.6%，归母净利润 4.74 亿，同比+11.5%，毛利率 29.8%，同比+5.9pct；24Q4 实现营收 14.73 亿，同 比+48.5%，环比+55.1%，归母净利润 1.92 亿，同比+1017.5%，环比+77.4%，毛利 率 34.0%，同比+6.5pct，环比+8.7pct。 股价与行 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a bullish outlook for several industries, with high probabilities of growth in Transportation (94%), Building Materials (94%), Textiles and Apparel (90%), and Utilities (88%) [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the AI model is optimistic about the primary industries: Transportation, Building Materials, Textiles and Apparel, Utilities, and Building Decoration [5]. - There is significant capital inflow observed in the Food and Beverage sector, indicating strong investor interest [5]. - Active equity funds have increased their positions in the Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery sector, reflecting a positive sentiment [5]. Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Outlook - The report provides a bullish probability for various industries, with Transportation and Building Materials both at 94%, followed by Textiles and Apparel at 90%, and Utilities at 88% [4]. Capital Flow Analysis - The Food and Beverage sector recorded a net inflow of capital, ranking it first in cumulative net inflow changes [4]. Fund Position Changes - Active equity funds have adjusted their positions, increasing their allocation in Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery from 10% to 14% [4]. - Conversely, the Electronics sector saw a decrease in allocation from 14.3% to 13.7% [4]. ETF Insights - The report lists several ETFs with high bullish probabilities, including the Shanghai Composite Index ETF (96.63%) and the Shanghai 180 ETF (93.77%) [8]. - The selection criteria for ETFs included a scoring system where only those with scores above 0.8 were considered, ensuring a focus on high-potential investment vehicles [7].

稳市场举措持续发力，新材料国产替代加速 基础化工 证券研究报告/行业定期报告 2025 年 04 月 13 日 | 上市公司数 | 428 | | --- | --- | | 行业总市值(亿元) | 32,783.26 | | 行业流通市值(亿元) | 29,223.51 | 相关报告 1、《关税贸易冲突加剧，关注国产替 | 增持（维持） 评级： | | 重点公司基本状况 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 简称 | 股价 | | | EPS | | | | | PE | | | 评级 | | 分析师：孙颖 | | （元） | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | | 执业证书编号：S0740519070002 | 万华化学 | 60.20 | 5.17 | 5.36 | 4.70 | 5.74 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several key companies in the building materials sector, including Beixin Building Materials, Conch Cement, China Jushi, and others, indicating a positive outlook for their stock performance over the next 6 to 12 months [5][137]. Core Insights - The building materials industry is expected to benefit from a recovery in demand, particularly in the cement and glass fiber sectors, with companies showing signs of improved profitability and performance [7][8]. - The report highlights the importance of brand recognition and market positioning for companies in the consumer building materials segment, suggesting that leading firms are likely to see valuation recovery and improved earnings in the latter half of the year [7][8]. - The cement market is experiencing price fluctuations, with a slight decrease in national cement prices, but the report anticipates a potential recovery in profitability due to cost reductions and increased sales volumes [7][43]. Summary by Sections Building Materials Overview - The building materials sector consists of 73 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 712.93 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 634.60 billion yuan [2]. - The report emphasizes the significance of domestic circulation and the selection of preferred brands in the building materials and cement sectors [1]. Key Company Performance - China Jushi is projected to achieve a net profit of 700-740 million yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 100%-110% [7]. - Conch Cement expects a net profit of 1.81 billion yuan in Q1 2025, reflecting a 20% increase compared to the previous year [7]. Cement Sector Analysis - The national cement price has decreased by 1 yuan/ton, with a slight increase in the inventory-to-sales ratio and shipment rates [7][43]. - The report notes that the cement industry is at a historical low in terms of price-to-book (PB) ratios, indicating a strong safety margin for investors [7]. Glass Fiber Sector Insights - The glass fiber sector is showing signs of recovery, with improved profitability expected due to increased demand in downstream applications [7][8]. - The report highlights that the industry is entering a new normal, with supply pressures expected to persist but demand growth anticipated in infrastructure and renewable energy sectors [8]. Consumer Building Materials - The consumer building materials segment is expected to see improved profitability as leading companies pass on cost pressures through price increases [7]. - The report suggests that the stabilization of the new and second-hand housing markets will support a recovery in this segment [7]. Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong brand recognition and operational efficiency, such as SanKe Tree, Beixin Building Materials, and others, for potential investment opportunities [7][8].

美债收益率飙升的背后兼论如何观察美国流动性 ——全球资产配置跨资产观察周报（4.07-4.13） 证券研究报告/策略定期报告 2025 年 04 月 13 日 分析师：何佳烨 Email：hejy01@zts.com.cn 资产配置框架系列报告： 1 重新认识美林时钟 ——大类资产配置框架研究系列 1 2 以普林格时钟为鉴，我们 如何搭建资产配置框架？ ——大类资产配置框架研究系列 2 3 基于普林格时钟框架，中 美行业轮动规律有哪些共同 的特点？ 资产配置周期系列报告： 资产配置深度报告：库存周期与普林 格时钟有什么关系？ 资产配置跨资产研究系列报告： 大类资产触底顺序有何规律？-资产 资产配置深度报告：美国也有"股债 跷跷板"吗？-资产配置跨市场研究系 列之二 报告摘要 相关报告 引言：近日，美债市场的大幅波动吸引了全球投资者的目光。特别是在昨日，10Y 美 债利率一度急剧上行 30bp，飙升至 4.5%，30Y 美债利率更是一度上冲至 4.8%。这 一剧烈波动引发了美国市场股、债、汇三杀的罕见资产价格表现。在探讨这一现象背 后的原因时，许多观点倾向于从 "流动性危机" 的视角去理解美债市场的动荡。流 动 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][6][13] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 1.485 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.74%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 207 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3.10% [3][6] - The company is positioned as a leader in precision stamping steel, with a production capacity of 180,000 tons in 2024, and plans to expand capacity with a new plant expected to be completed in April 2025 [5][6] - The company has established long-term stable partnerships with several well-known automotive parts suppliers, enhancing its market position [5] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company sold 181,600 tons of precision stamping steel, a year-on-year increase of 13% [4] - The average selling price of precision stamping steel was 7,774.71 yuan per ton, with a gross profit margin of 25.75%, an increase of 0.39 percentage points year-on-year [4] - The company’s operating income is projected to grow to 2.648 billion yuan by 2027, with a corresponding net profit of 351 million yuan [2][6] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecasted net profit for 2025-2027 is 247 million yuan, 293 million yuan, and 351 million yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 26, 22, and 18 [6] - The company is expected to maintain a stable gross profit per ton, with a focus on increasing sales volume [6]

执业证书编号：S0740522020001 Email：zengbiao@zts.com.cn 盛弘股份（300693.SZ） 其他电源设备Ⅱ 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2025 年 04 月 09 日 | 评级： | 买入（维持） | 公司盈利预测及估值 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 分析师：曾彪 | | 营业收入（百万元） | | 2,651 | 3,036 | 3,854 | 4,653 | 5,464 | | 执业证书编号：S0740522020001 | | 增长率 yoy% | | 76% | 15% | 27% | 21% | 17% | | Email：zengbiao@zts.com.cn | | 归母净利润（百万元） | | 403 | 429 | 559 | 710 | 869 | | 分析师：吴鹏 | | 增长率 yoy% 每股收益（元） | | 80% 1.29 | ...

Email：zengbiao@zts.com.cn 其他电子Ⅱ 执业证书编号：S0740522020001 执业证书编号：S0740522080002 Email：zhubr@zts.com.cn | 基本状况 | | | --- | --- | | 总股本(百万股) | 66.28 | | 流通股本(百万股) | 47.67 | | 市价(元) | 104.89 | | 市值(百万元) | 6,951.84 | | 流通市值(百万元) | 4,999.94 | 股价与行业-市场走势对比 中熔电气（301031.SZ） 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2025 年 04 月 10 日 | 评级： | 增持（维持） | 公司盈利预测及估值 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 | | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 分析师：曾彪 | | 营业收入（百万元） | | 755 | 1,060 | 1,384 | 1,821 | 2,300 | | | ...

证券研究报告 【中泰汽车|何俊艺团队】汽车周报（03/31-04/06） 持续看好强势自主整车，年度重视整车&智驾&机器人 | 汽车行业首席分析师：何俊艺 | 汽车行业分析师：刘欣畅 | 汽车行业分析师：毛䶮玄 | | --- | --- | --- | | S0740523020004 | S0740522120003 | S0740523020003 | | hjy@zts.com.cn | liuxc03@zts.com.cn | maoyx@zts.com.cn | | 汽车行业分析师：汪越 | 汽车行业分析师：白臻哲 | | | S0740525010002 | S0740524070006 | | | wangyue07@zts.com.cn | baizz@zts.com.cn | | 2025年4月9日 1 目 录 来源：中泰证券研究所 备注：近期观点不定期更新 3 ◼ 周度核心数据：①内销：本周（3.31-4.6）上险总量33.7w，低于40w周度荣枯线（同比-24.9%/环比-30.8%）。新能源周度上险量 16.9w(同比-10.6%/环比-29.6%)，新能源渗透率达50.2%。各车企 ...