大家好欢迎参加状态电信近期电源反馈理电固态电池会议目前所有参会者均处于吸音状态下面开始播报名字声明声明播报完毕后主讲人可直接开始发言谢谢 本次电话会议服务于中泰证券正式签约客户为非公开交流活动未经中泰证券授权请勿对外传播本次会议的内容包括但不限于视频、音频、文字记录内容等信息感谢您的理解与配合 中泰证券对违反上述要求的行为保留追究法律责任的权利市场有风险投资需谨慎本会议信息仅供参考不代表任何投资建议本公司不对任何人因使用本会议中的信息所引致的任何损失负担任何责任 好的各位老早上好非常感谢早上餐会我是钟爱电信总那么今天的话就是就近期关于锂电过爱电池的一些事情结合就是调研做一个更新其实是对于几个环节几个重要环节的一个重点标的的一个更新跟Q2前瞻那么在讲一讲之前 这个国家电池的设备首先是关于国家电池实际上近期比较值得关注的两个事情一个是就是我们可以看到就是半国态的装机量在足够的提升那么在前两天就是中国动力电池联盟刚刚发布了这么一个装机量数据我们也可以看到就是那个蔚来新能源它的这个半国态的装机量它是创新高的 一个零点四八九二十的这么一个专精水平那么一到五月呢就合计 接近1.6个GWh还是在稳步的提升那么在这个月呢主要 ...

Group 1: German Service Export and Investment - Germany's service exports have shown a long-term gradual increase in their share of total exports, with productive service industries being the main contributors since 2010 [2] - The trade surplus in productive services has significantly improved since 2014, primarily driven by intellectual property fees, processing services, and the financial and insurance sectors [2] - The shift in Germany's foreign investment from manufacturing to services reflects an upgrade in its industrial structure, with cross-border mergers and acquisitions becoming a key investment method [2] Group 2: AR Industry Development - The AR industry is expected to experience a new growth phase driven by the convergence of hardware and ecosystem, with advancements in optical waveguide technology making AR glasses more accessible [2] - Various optical solutions for AR are being developed, with the optical waveguide being considered the ultimate solution for consumer-grade AR due to its compact size and high light transmittance [2] - The AR industry chain is deepening its focus on optical waveguide technology, with key players collaborating with global leaders to enhance production capabilities [2] Group 3: Bond Market Trends - As of the end of May, the total custody amount in the bond market reached 146.49 trillion yuan, with a month-on-month increase of 23.76 billion yuan, indicating a significant rise in rate bonds [16] - Commercial banks have accelerated their purchase of rate bonds, increasing their holdings by 1.1 trillion yuan in May, compared to less than 100 billion yuan in April [16] - The bond market's leverage ratio is estimated to be 109.1% at the end of May, reflecting a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from April, marking a shift after six months of continuous increase [16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Baoxin Software (600845 SH) [1] Core Views - Baoxin Software is a leading domestic industrial software company specializing in steel industry digitalization It benefits from industry consolidation capacity optimization and intelligent manufacturing which open up incremental space for informatization and automation transformation [7] - The company is accelerating its expansion into non-steel markets and has made breakthroughs in large-scale PLC and industrial robotics which are expected to become new growth drivers [7] - Baoxin Software is expected to achieve net profits of 3 146 billion yuan 3 942 billion yuan and 5 087 billion yuan in 2024 2025 and 2026 respectively with EPS of 1 09 yuan 1 37 yuan and 1 76 yuan [3] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow by 22% 23% and 25% in 2024 2025 and 2026 respectively reaching 15 695 billion yuan 19 302 billion yuan and 24 170 billion yuan [1] - Net profit is expected to grow by 23% 25% and 29% in the same period [1] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 30X 24X and 19X for 2024-2026 [8] Business Overview - Baoxin Software is a subsidiary of Baowu Group and has a comprehensive layout in informatization automation and robotics Its business covers industrial software automation robotics smart transportation and new-generation information infrastructure [13][14] - The company has a strong presence in the steel industry and is expanding into non-steel markets such as transportation non-ferrous metals pharmaceuticals and chemicals [19] - Baoxin Software has a rich product matrix in industrial software including MES ERP and PLC and has achieved significant breakthroughs in large-scale PLC and industrial robotics [19][20] Industry Trends - The domestic PLC market is expected to grow from 15 4 billion yuan in 2021 to 19 3 billion yuan in 2026 with a CAGR of 4 7% [34] - The industrial internet market is also growing rapidly with the domestic market size reaching 1 37 trillion yuan in 2023 and expected to continue expanding [43] - The domestic industrial software market is expected to grow steadily with a CAGR of 13 1% from 2012 to 2023 reaching 282 4 billion yuan in 2023 [28] Key Developments - Baoxin Software has signed contracts with Guangxi Hongwang and Gangdi Technology for the application of its self-developed PLC products [20] - The company is actively exploring new business models such as BOO and RaaS in the industrial robotics sector [2] - Baoxin Software is leveraging its resources in the IDC sector and is planning to expand its data center business with the development of AIGC [2]

Group 1: Foreign Trade of Services - The report categorizes Germany's service exports into foreign trade and foreign investment, highlighting the importance of service exports in enhancing overseas revenue for companies [18] - Since 2010, productive service industries, including transportation, information services, and intellectual property usage fees, have been the main contributors to service trade income, indicating a strong integration between service exports and Germany's industrial strength [11][45] - The share of service exports in total exports has shown a gradual increase, rising from 13.4% in 2001 to 19.7% in 2022, with a compound annual growth rate of 7.6%, outperforming goods exports [22][46] Group 2: Foreign Investment in Services - Germany's foreign investment has shifted from manufacturing to services, with a high proportion of service industry investments reflecting structural upgrades in the economy [11][77] - Cross-border mergers and acquisitions have become a primary method for German companies to expand internationally, exemplified by Allianz Group's aggressive overseas acquisitions in the financial sector [82] - SAP, a leader in enterprise resource planning software, has leveraged its technological advantages to expand into international markets, showcasing the successful foreign investment strategies in the information technology sector [85]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for BYD is "Buy" (maintained) with a market price of 254 CNY [1]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the potential for BYD's overseas expansion, drawing parallels with Toyota's successful export history. It highlights the importance of volume growth in new markets and profit growth in stable markets as key drivers for stock price appreciation [5][6]. - The report forecasts significant revenue growth for BYD, projecting revenues of 803.92 billion CNY in 2024, 956.01 billion CNY in 2025, and 1,137.01 billion CNY in 2026, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 34%, 19%, and 19% respectively [2][7]. Summary by Sections Financial Forecasts and Valuation - Revenue (in million CNY): 2022A: 424,061; 2023A: 602,315; 2024E: 803,920; 2025E: 956,010; 2026E: 1,137,010 [2]. - Net profit (in million CNY): 2022A: 16,622 (growth rate: 96.2%); 2023A: 30,041 (growth rate: 42.0%); 2024E: 37,540.1 (growth rate: 33.5%); 2025E: 47,630.0 (growth rate: 18.9%); 2026E: 54,410.0 (growth rate: 18.9%) [2]. - Earnings per share (CNY): 5.71, 10.33, 12.90, 16.37, 18.70 for the years 2024E to 2026E [2]. - Price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio: 44.5, 24.6, 19.7, 15.5, 13.6 for the years 2024E to 2026E [2]. - Price-to-book (P/B) ratio: 6.7, 5.3, 4.2, 3.3, 2.7 for the years 2024E to 2026E [2]. Market Expansion Insights - BYD's export strategy focuses on regions such as Southeast Asia and Latin America for immediate volume growth, while Europe is seen as a long-term profit growth area [7]. - The Asia-Pacific division has a total market potential of 10 million vehicles, with a current penetration rate of 2% for new energy vehicles [7]. - The European division is projected to have a total market of 1.3 million vehicles, with a new energy penetration rate exceeding 20% [7]. - The Americas division focuses on Central and South America, with a total market of approximately 6 million vehicles [11]. Strategic Comparisons - The report draws comparisons between BYD and Toyota, noting that both companies share a focus on efficiency, quality, and technology [5][6]. - Historical analysis of Toyota's export phases indicates that stock price increases were significantly correlated with volume growth during initial market expansions and profit growth during stable periods [6]. Overall Market Position - BYD's market capitalization is approximately 738.95 billion CNY, with a circulating market value of 295.27 billion CNY [3]. - The company has a total share capital of 2,909 million shares, with 1,162 million shares in circulation [3]. This comprehensive analysis highlights BYD's strong growth potential and strategic positioning in the global automotive market, particularly in the context of expanding its export capabilities.

Investment Rating - Buy rating (首次) [1] Core Views - The company is a leading domestic thin film deposition equipment manufacturer with a strong product portfolio and significant growth potential [5] - The domestic thin film deposition equipment market has vast potential for localization, and the company is well-positioned to benefit from this trend [5] - The company's expansion into hybrid bonding technology opens up new growth opportunities [6] Company Overview - The company specializes in semiconductor thin film deposition equipment, with products including PECVD, ALD, SACVD, and HDPCVD [11] - It has gained recognition from major domestic fabs such as SMIC, Hua Hong Group, Yangtze Memory, and ChangXin Memory [11] - The company's revenue grew from 251 million RMB in 2019 to 2.705 billion RMB in 2023, with a CAGR of 81.14% [5] - In Q1 2024, the company's revenue was 472 million RMB, a YoY increase of 17.25%, but net profit declined by 80.51% due to high R&D expenses [5] Market and Industry Analysis - The global thin film deposition equipment market is expected to reach 34 billion USD by 2025, with a CAGR of 15% from 2020 [28] - The domestic thin film deposition equipment market in China is projected to reach 8.9 billion USD in 2023, with a CAGR of 33% from 2017 [28] - PECVD is the largest segment in the thin film deposition equipment market, accounting for 33% of the market share [30] - The company's thin film deposition equipment revenue in 2023 was 2.57 billion RMB, accounting for 4.1% of the domestic market demand [5] Hybrid Bonding Technology - Hybrid bonding technology offers higher I/O density, shorter interlayer distances, and eliminates the need for underfill, making it ideal for advanced packaging [6] - The global hybrid bonding equipment market was 267 million USD in 2020, with W2W bonding equipment accounting for 261 million USD [6] - By 2027, the W2W and C2W bonding equipment markets are expected to grow to 507 million USD and 232 million USD, respectively, with CAGRs of 9.95% and 68.56% [6] - The company's Dione 300 W2W bonding product has passed customer verification and received repeat orders, marking a significant milestone in domestic hybrid bonding equipment [58] Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 3.9 billion RMB, 5.3 billion RMB, and 6.7 billion RMB in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with YoY growth rates of 46%, 35%, and 25% [6] - Net profits are projected to be 796 million RMB, 1.167 billion RMB, and 1.575 billion RMB for the same periods, with YoY growth rates of 20%, 47%, and 35% [6] - The company's PE ratios for 2024-2026 are estimated at 48x, 33x, and 24x, respectively, compared to the industry average of 56x for 2024 [6]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking the first coverage of the stock [2]. Core Insights - The company has shown significant improvement in Q1 2024, with a year-on-year revenue growth of 14% and a dramatic increase in net profit due to a low base effect from the previous year [12]. - The company is positioned as a leading semiconductor packaging firm in China, benefiting from a deep partnership with AMD, which accounts for over 80% of its orders [6][8]. - The report highlights the company's strategic acquisitions and technological advancements in advanced packaging, which are expected to drive future growth, particularly in the AI sector [18][23]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is a leading domestic semiconductor packaging manufacturer, established in 1997 and listed in 2007, with a significant focus on advanced packaging technologies [6]. - It has developed a multi-site production strategy with seven major production bases, enhancing its ability to serve clients effectively [7]. Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 222.69 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.92%, despite a challenging market environment [12]. - The net profit for 2023 was 1.69 billion yuan, reflecting a decline of 66.2% due to industry downturns and currency fluctuations [12]. - Q1 2024 saw a revenue of 52.82 billion yuan, with net profit soaring to 0.98 billion yuan, a 2064% increase compared to the same period last year [12]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has established a strong foothold in the semiconductor packaging industry, leveraging its relationship with AMD to capture significant market share [6][8]. - The report emphasizes the importance of advanced packaging technologies as a critical area for growth, particularly in the context of increasing demand driven by AI applications [18][21]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the growing demand for advanced packaging solutions as the semiconductor industry recovers and AI technologies proliferate [18][23]. - The report forecasts revenue growth rates of 12.6%, 14.9%, and 15.5% for the years 2024 to 2026, respectively, indicating a positive outlook for the company's financial performance [2].

Summary of Conference Call Company and Industry - The conference call focuses on BYD, a prominent player in the automotive industry, particularly in electric vehicles (EVs) and battery technology [1]. Core Points and Arguments - BYD continues to lead in the electric vehicle market, showcasing strong sales growth and expanding its product lineup [1]. - The company reported a significant increase in vehicle deliveries, with a year-over-year growth rate of over 100% in the first half of the year [1]. - BYD's strategy includes enhancing its battery technology, which is crucial for maintaining competitive advantage in the EV sector [1]. - The company is also focusing on international expansion, targeting markets in Europe and North America to increase its global footprint [1]. Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content - The call highlighted the importance of government policies and incentives in driving EV adoption, which could impact future sales [1]. - There was a discussion on supply chain challenges, particularly in sourcing raw materials for batteries, which could affect production timelines [1]. - BYD's commitment to sustainability and reducing carbon emissions was emphasized, aligning with global trends towards greener technologies [1].

证券研究报告 2024年6月20日 【中泰电子】AR深度报告：AI落地最佳载体， 硬件&生态共驱发展 ...

Industry Overview - The AR industry is expected to experience a new wave of growth driven by the resonance between hardware and ecosystem advancements [4] - AR sales have shown steady growth, with global sales reaching 510,000 units in 2023, a 21% YoY increase, and domestic sales in China growing by 54% YoY to 200,000 units [6] - The AR market is currently dominated by domestic manufacturers, with Xreal, Rokid, and Thunderbird Innovation holding significant market shares globally [6] - The industry is transitioning from tethered AR devices to more integrated and lightweight standalone AR devices, with tethered AR accounting for 85% of sales in China in 2023 [8] AI + AR Evolution - AR glasses are considered the best carrier for multimodal AI models like GPT-4o, offering hands-free interaction and real-time information processing [11] - Meta's Ray-Ban glasses, powered by the Llama 3 multimodal AI model, have sold over 1 million units since their launch in October 2023, marking a significant milestone in AI-powered AR devices [11] - The integration of AI with AR is expanding the application boundaries of AR glasses, enabling features like real-time translation, navigation, and object recognition [14] AR Optical Technology - AR optical technology is evolving, with waveguide solutions showing significant potential for consumer-grade AR devices due to their compact size and high transparency [23] - BirdBath and freeform optical solutions are currently the most mature and widely used in consumer AR devices, but waveguide technology is expected to become the mainstream due to its superior performance in terms of size, transparency, and clarity [31] - Array waveguides offer excellent imaging quality and are capable of 2D pupil expansion, but face challenges in mass production due to complex manufacturing processes [34] - Surface relief waveguides (SRG) are easier to mass-produce but suffer from issues like the rainbow effect, limited field of view, and light leakage [48] AR Display Technology - AR display technologies include LCoS, DLP, MicroOLED, and MicroLED, with MicroLED showing the most promise due to its high brightness, fast response time, and compact size [57] - MicroLED displays are particularly suited for AR applications due to their high pixel density, brightness, and low power consumption, but face challenges in mass production, particularly with red light efficiency and full-color integration [67] - In 2023, 9 MicroLED AR glasses were released, with 6 of them being monochrome, highlighting the ongoing challenges in achieving full-color MicroLED displays [69] Key Players in AR Industry - **Crystal Optech**: Focused on array waveguides and volume holographic waveguides, collaborating with global leaders like Lumus and Digilens to advance AR optical technology [76] - **Goertek**: A global XR leader with expertise in AR device manufacturing, optical solutions, and display technologies, partnering with Meta and Qualcomm [79] - **Sunny Optical**: A global optical leader with a strong focus on waveguide technology and AR camera sensing solutions [83] - **Lante Optics**: A key supplier of glass wafers for AR waveguides, with capabilities in producing high-refractive-index, ultra-thin glass wafers [85] Investment Recommendations - The AR industry is poised for significant growth as AI and hardware advancements converge, with key players in the AR supply chain expected to benefit from this trend [91]