、 流拍率下行，不同能级城市分化明显 -房地产行业2024年Q1土地市场总结 房地产 证券研究报告/行业季度报告 2024年4月9日 [T评ab级le_：M增ain持] （维持） [重Ta点ble公_F司in基anc本e]状 况 分析师：由子沛 股价 EPS PE 简称 评级 执业证书编号：S0740523020005 (元) 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 保利发展 8.5 1.5 1.7 2.1 2.7 5.5 5.0 4.1 3.1 买入 Email：youzp@zts.com.cn 招商蛇口 8.8 0.4 1.1 1.3 1.7 21.5 8.3 6.7 5.3 买入 滨江集团 6.5 1.2 1.4 1.8 2.3 5.4 4.6 3.7 2.8 买入 分析师：李垚 万科A 8.0 2.0 2.2 2.5 2.5 4.1 3.6 3.2 3.2 买入 华发股份 6.7 1.1 1.4 1.6 1.8 6.0 4.8 4.2 3.7 买入 执业证书编号：S0740520110003 备注：股价使用2024年4月9日收盘价 Email：liy ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) with a market price of 8.48 CNY [1]. Core Views - The company has established itself as a global leader in the mining industry, with a diversified portfolio that includes copper, cobalt, tungsten, niobium, and phosphate production. The management team has extensive experience in mergers and acquisitions, having successfully integrated major projects like TFM and KFM [4][12]. - The company aims to achieve significant production targets over the next five years, including annual copper production of 800,000 to 1,000,000 tons and cobalt production of 90,000 to 100,000 tons [12][28]. - The copper market is expected to experience a supply bottleneck in the medium to long term, while demand is projected to rise, particularly due to the increasing importance of renewable energy applications [4][7]. - Cobalt prices have reached historical lows, but the company is well-positioned to benefit from a potential recovery in the market as supply dynamics stabilize [4][7]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is a comprehensive mining resource leader with a global footprint, having undergone significant expansion through strategic acquisitions and partnerships [4][12]. - It operates under a "mining + trading" model, making it a top producer of cobalt and a leading producer of copper, niobium, and tungsten [4][12]. Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 186,269 million CNY in 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 8%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 8,250 million CNY, reflecting a 36% increase year-on-year [3][24]. - For the years 2024 to 2026, projected revenues are 195,293 million CNY, 196,843 million CNY, and 201,489 million CNY, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 10,561 million CNY, 11,463 million CNY, and 12,701 million CNY [3][8]. Production Capacity and Growth - The company has a copper resource of 34.64 million tons and a cobalt resource of 5.25 million tons, with production capacities expected to reach 520,000 to 570,000 tons of copper and 60,000 to 70,000 tons of cobalt in 2024 [4][28]. - The TFM and KFM projects are key contributors to the company's growth, with TFM expected to produce 450,000 tons of copper and 37,000 tons of cobalt annually once fully operational [29][34]. Market Dynamics - The copper market is experiencing a supply-demand mismatch, with limited new supply expected in the coming years due to low capital expenditures in the industry [4][38]. - The cobalt market is currently facing oversupply pressures, but prices are stabilizing near production costs, limiting further downside [4][7]. Investment Recommendations - The company is positioned to benefit from rising copper prices and increasing demand from renewable energy sectors, making it a compelling investment opportunity [4][7][8]. - The projected P/E ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 30.2, 22.2, and 17.3, respectively, indicating potential for growth [3][8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Zijin Mining (601899.SH) is "Buy" (maintained) with a market price of 17.01 CNY [1]. Core Views - The report highlights that Zijin Mining's revenue for 2023 reached 293.403 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 8.54%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 21.119 billion CNY, up 5.38% year-on-year [7][8]. - The company's performance was driven by increased production and prices of its main products, although rising costs have pressured profitability [8][9]. - The report emphasizes the company's ongoing exploration and resource acquisition efforts, which are expected to support future growth [10][12]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profit**: In 2023, Zijin Mining achieved a revenue of 293.403 billion CNY, with a net profit of 21.119 billion CNY. The fourth quarter saw a revenue of 68.395 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 3.41% [7][8]. - **Production Volumes**: The company produced 803,400 tons of copper (up 10.47% YoY), 648.4 tons of gold (up 15.97% YoY), and 411.4 tons of silver (up 3.91% YoY) in 2023 [8][9]. - **Cost Analysis**: The production costs for gold and copper increased due to various factors, including currency fluctuations and rising fuel prices. For instance, the cost of gold ingots was 286.09 CNY per gram (up 13.78% YoY) [8][9]. - **Future Projections**: The report projects that Zijin Mining will achieve a net profit of 26.018 billion CNY in 2024, with expected revenues of 356.417 billion CNY [13]. Growth Drivers - **Project Development**: Key projects in copper and gold are progressing, with significant production capacity expected to come online in the next few years. For example, the Kamoa Copper Mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo is anticipated to reach a capacity of over 600,000 tons per year by Q2 2024 [12]. - **Resource Expansion**: The company has been actively acquiring new resources, including a 48.59% stake in the Juno Copper Mine in Tibet, which adds significant copper resources [11][12]. - **Market Trends**: The report notes a bullish outlook for gold and copper prices, driven by macroeconomic factors and increasing demand from the renewable energy sector [12][13].

[Table_Title] 评级：买入（维持） 市场价格：9.00 元 电话：021-20315728 执业证书编号：S0740517020004 研究助理：佘雨晴 公司持有该股票比例 相关报告 ◼ Q4 营收利润同环比修复，全年毛利率提升。公司 23Q4 营收 26.31 亿元，同比及 环比增长 12.45%、24.98%，归母净利润 1.39 亿元，同比及环比增长 11.97%、1 7.54%。全年总体经营稳健，面临需求和行业库存等挑战，仍然依托技术平台及 产品平台优势，实现收入连续 11 年增长，头部客户数量、收入持续双增长，头部 客户数量增至 115 家，贡献收入占总收入比重为 86%。分产品来看，工具/家电/ 新能源/工业营收分别为 32.41 亿/31.66 亿/21.4 亿/2.51 亿元，同比增长 0.05%/2. 41%/5.13%/1.22%。全年综合毛利率 22.31%，同比提高 2.17pct，工具/家电/新 能源/工业板块毛利率分别为 23.78%/22.06%/19.37%/27.59%，同比提升 3.25/2. 45/0.85/0.34pct，主要由于公司各下游应用持续创新，产品 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative increase of over 15% in the next 6 to 12 months compared to the benchmark index [18][29]. Core Views - The company has exceeded performance expectations, with advantages in the peptide sector continuing to materialize, and a high growth trend is expected to persist [20]. - The company anticipates a significant increase in net profit for Q1 2024, with estimates ranging from 55 million to 70 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 161.74% to 233.13% [20]. - The growth in net profit is attributed to the successful commercialization of key peptide products, increased demand in the global peptide supply chain, and a strong performance in the company's small molecule CDMO services [20]. Financial Performance and Forecast - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 1,033.55 million yuan in 2023 to 2,861.10 million yuan in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 58.69%, 37.10%, 41.35%, and 42.85% respectively [6]. - Net profit is expected to increase from 162.94 million yuan in 2023 to 450.78 million yuan in 2026, with growth rates of 26.20%, 35.49%, 41.26%, and 44.55% respectively [6]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.76 yuan in 2023 to 2.11 yuan in 2026 [6]. Business Development - The company is focusing on its self-selected product lines, particularly in the peptide and specialty raw materials sectors, which are expected to maintain high growth rates [20]. - The company has established significant contracts with major pharmaceutical companies, ensuring a steady flow of orders and contributing to the recovery of its CDMO services [20]. - The successful launch of new production facilities is anticipated to enhance the company's capacity and support ongoing growth in its product offerings [20].

茂莱光学（688502.SH）/电子 证券研究报告/公司点评 2024 年 4 月 8 日 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------- ...

康华生物(300841)/生物制品 证券研究报告/公司点评 2024 年 4 月 8 日 六价诺如授权海外，高端狂苗恢复可期 滑 0.38%。 -40.00% -30.00% -20.00% -10.00% 0.00% 10.00% 20.00% 30.00% 40.00% 50.00% 0 1000 2000 3000 2022 2023 同比增速 图表 1：康华生物主要财务指标变化（单位：百万元，%） 来源：公司公告，中泰证券研究所 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------|---------|---------|----------|---------|---------|---------|---------|-------|---------|-------|-------|----- ...

剔除新冠营收增长，多重改善利润弹性大 复星医药（600196.SH）/医药 证券研究报告/公司点评 2024年4月8日 生物 [Table_Industry] [评Ta级ble：_T买itle入] （维持） [公Ta司ble盈_F利in预anc测e]及 估值 市场价格：23.34 指标 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 营业收入（百万元） 43951.55 41399.54 45791.60 50773.46 56261.41 分析师：祝嘉琦 增长率yoy% 12.68% -5.81% 10.61% 10.88% 10.81% 执业证书编号：S0740519040001 净利润（百万元） 3730.80 2386.27 3090.06 3439.21 3881.30 电话：021-20315150 增长率yoy% -21.21% -36.04% 29.49% 11.30% 12.85% Email：zhujq@zts.com.cn 每股收益（元） 1.40 0.89 1.16 1.29 1.45 每股现金流量 6.08 5.12 6.71 8.05 9.43 分析师：张楠 净资产收益 ...

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成本管控卓有成效，经营业绩符合预期 吉祥航空(603885.SH） 证券研究报告/公司点评 2024年4月8日 [Table_Industry] [评Ta级ble：_T买itle入] （维持） [公Ta司ble盈_F利in预anc测e1及] 估值 市场价格：12.05元 指标 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 营业收入（百万元） 8,210 20,096 25,036 28,638 30,468 分析师：杜冲 增长率yoy% -30% 145% 25% 14% 6% 执业证书编号：S0740522040001 净利润（百万元） -4,148 751 1,839 3,122 3,389 电话： 增长率yoy% -734% 118% 145% 70% 9% 每股收益（元） -1.87 0.34 0.83 1.41 1.53 Email：duchong@zts.com.cn 每股现金流量 0.09 2.89 3.46 2.64 2.70 联系人：李鼎莹 净资产收益率 -43% 9% 14% 20% 17% 电话： P/E -6.4 35.5 14.5 8.5 7.9 P/B 2.8 3.2 ...