、 成交同环比下行，央行重提差异化房地产政策 -行业研究周报 房地产 证券研究报告/行业研究周报 2024年4月7日 [T评ab级le_：M增ain持] （维持） [重Ta点ble公_F司in基anc本e]状 况 分析师：由子沛 股价 EPS PE 简称 评级 执业证书编号：S0740523020005 (元) 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 保利发展 8.8 1.5 1.7 2.1 2.7 5.7 5.2 4.2 3.2 买入 Email：youzp@zts.com.cn 招商蛇口 9.1 0.4 1.1 1.3 1.7 22.1 8.5 6.9 5.4 买入 滨江集团 6.7 1.2 1.4 1.8 2.3 5.6 4.7 3.8 2.9 买入 分析师：李垚 万科A 8.2 2.0 2.2 2.5 2.5 4.2 3.7 3.3 3.3 买入 华发股份 7.0 1.1 1.4 1.6 1.8 6.3 5.0 4.4 3.9 买入 执业证书编号：S0740520110003 备注：股价使用2024年4月3日收盘价 Email：liyao01@zts ...

德赛西威（002920.SZ）：充裕订单支撑业绩，全球化战略迎来突破 德赛西威(002920.SZ)/计算 证券研究报告/公司点评 2024 年04 月06 日 机 [Table_Industry] [评Ta级ble：_T买itle入] （维持） [公Ta司ble盈_F利in预anc测e1及] 估值 市场价格：127.95元 指标 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 营业收入（百万元） 14,933 21,908 27,519 34,315 42,472 分析师：孙行臻 增长率yoy% 56% 47% 26% 25% 24% 执业证书编号：S0740524030002 净利润（百万元） 1,184 1,547 2,054 2,669 3,636 电话：13430277882 增长率yoy% 42% 31% 33% 30% 36% 每股收益（元） 2.13 2.79 3.70 4.81 6.55 Email：sunxz@zts.com.cn 每股现金流量 1.10 2.06 0.94 -0.09 8.17 净资产收益率 18% 19% 21% 21% 23% P/E 60.0 45.9 ...

、 2024Q2 前瞻策略：关注新质生产力与新型基础设施 计算机 证券研究报告/行业点评报告 2024 年 04 月 08 日 [T评ab级le_：M增ain持] （维持） [投Ta资ble要_S点um mary] 分析师：孙行臻 ◼ AI算力：需求与政策双向驱动，国产算力日益成熟。由于GPU的性能每年会翻 执业证书编号：S0740524030002 1倍以上，同时性价比会不断提升，因此海外大厂坚决投入算力。在国内，随着 海量数据+模型迭代+用户量级提升对算力的需求日益旺盛，国产供应链堵点逐 电话：13430277882 步打通，华为和中科院两大算力生态日渐成熟，我们预计 AI 算力板块 2024 年 Email：sunxz@zts.com.cn 将延续供需两旺的高景气。 ◼ AI应用：新模型破圈引爆流量，场景应用多点开花。1）LLM： Kimi破圈后， 流量呈现迅速上升趋势，文档类数据较多（非结构数据少）、长文本解析需求强 的场景是相对更容易落地。随着长文本LLM“理解能力”不断加强，AI在金融、 教育、医疗、法律等领域的落地相对更加容易，掌握行业 know-how 的 B 端应 用厂商目前依旧具备模型的选 ...

、 原油价格强势延续，全球煤价或将上涨 煤炭 证券研究报告/行业周报 2024年4月6日 评级：增持（ 维持 ） [重Ta点bl公e_司Fi基na本nc状e]况 分析师：杜冲 股价 EPS PE 简称 PB 评级 分执析业师证：书杜编冲号： S0740522040001 (元) 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 山西焦煤 10.42 2.09 1.E4 4 1.55 1.64 5.0 7.2 6.7 6.4 1.60 买入 电话： 潞安环能 21.41 4.74 3.00 3.28 3.72 4.5 7.1 6.5 5.8 1.33 买入 Email：duchong@zts.com.cn 平煤股份 13.05 2.47 1.71 1.90 2.04 5.3 7.6 6.9 6.4 1.32 买入 联系人：鲁昊 兖矿能源 24.40 6.30 2.71 2.92 3.39 3.9 9.0 8.4 7.2 3.23 买入 中国神华 39.59 3.50 3.00 3.20 3.28 11.3 13.2 12.4 12.1 1.92 买入 电话： 陕西煤业 ...

、 本周 4 单 REITs 集中获批 -行业研究周报 房地产/公募REITs 证券研究报告/行业研究周报 2024年4月7日 [T评ab级le_：M增ain持] （维持） [公Ta募bleR_ESIuTmsm行ar业y] 周报-20240407 分析师：由子沛  一周行情回顾 执业证书编号：S0740523020005 本周REITs指数上涨0.85%，沪深300累计上涨0.86%，中证500指数上涨1.67%， 中证全债指数上涨0.10%，中债1年期国债指数上涨0.03%，中债10年期国债指数 Email：youzp@zts.com.cn 上涨 0.12%，中证转债指数上涨 0.77%。上市以来 REITs 与十年期国债、一年期国 债、中证转债相关性分别为-0.60、-0.60、0.67，与沪深300、中证500相关性分别 联系人：陈希瑞 为0.49、0.55。 Email：chenxr@zts.com.cn  行业基本情况 [基Ta本ble状_P况ro fit] 重点事件：1）4月3日，沪深交易所网站显示，博时津开科工产业园REIT、工银瑞 上市REITs数 35 信河北高速集团高速公路REIT、易 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the company with a market price of 5.33 [1] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue decline of 4% year-on-year and a net profit increase of 0.8% [20][52] - The net interest income decreased by 5.3% year-on-year, with a quarterly decline of 6.7% [20][55] - The asset quality remains robust, with a non-performing loan ratio and generation rate decreasing year-on-year [20][45] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and net profit figures for 2022 and projections for 2023-2026: - Revenue (million): 843,392 (2022), 809,504 (2023A), 776,842 (2024E), 760,865 (2025E), 762,453 (2026E) [18] - Net Profit (million): 361,132 (2022), 363,993 (2023A), 357,372 (2024E), 357,345 (2025E), 357,397 (2026E) [18] - Earnings per Share (EPS): 1.00 (2022), 1.01 (2023A), 0.99 (2024E), 0.99 (2025E), 0.99 (2026E) [18] Revenue and Profit Analysis - The company’s revenue decreased by 4% year-on-year, while net profit saw a slight increase of 0.8% [20][52] - The net interest income has been under pressure, with a year-on-year decline of 5.3% and a quarterly decline of 6.7% [20][55] - Non-interest income showed a marginal increase of 2.0% year-on-year, driven by other non-interest income [20][42] Asset and Liability Management - The company maintained a high year-on-year growth in loans and deposits, with loans increasing by 12.4% and deposits by 12.1% [20][32] - The structure of loans and deposits remained stable, with corporate loans showing a significant contribution [20][61] Asset Quality - The non-performing loan ratio and generation rate have decreased year-on-year, indicating a strong safety margin [20][45] - The non-performing loan ratio remained stable at 1.37%, with a slight decrease in the proportion of special mention loans [20][45] Future Outlook - The report projects a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.52X for 2024E and 0.49X for 2025E, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 5.38X for both years [5] - The company is expected to maintain its competitive edge and high barriers to entry due to its solid customer base and comprehensive financial service system [5]

REITs Analysis - REITs, or Real Estate Investment Trusts, are investment funds that issue income certificates to investors, raising funds to invest in real estate and distribute investment returns [9] - As of March 24, 2024, China has issued 35 REITs, with a significant number in park infrastructure and transportation infrastructure, each having 9 issued [9] - Recent policy changes for REITs include a slight reduction in the annual net cash flow distribution requirement, continuous introduction of new investors, and optimization of financial accounting measurement methods [9] - REITs in China are primarily categorized into five types based on different classification standards, with most being closed-end and publicly offered [9] - The majority of REITs are structured through "public funds + asset-backed securities (ABS)" to hold project company equity, characterized by strong liquidity, equity attributes, low leverage, and stable cash flow [9] - The average approval time for REITs in 2023 varied from 6 to 133 days, with an average of 55.75 days, indicating longer approval times for warehouse logistics and transportation infrastructure REITs [9] - The dividend rates for most REITs in 2023 were concentrated between 4% and 8%, with some REITs achieving higher rates [9] - The investor structure for REITs is primarily composed of strategic, offline, and public investors, with strategic investors accounting for 50%-80% [9] Aviation Industry Outlook - The aviation sector has shown cyclical trends with significant returns, with historical maximum increases of 866%, 327%, 410%, 57%, and 9% across different cycles [17] - The demand recovery in the aviation industry is expected to accelerate, with short-term supply adjustments and long-term growth potential driven by macroeconomic factors and rising disposable incomes [17] - The industry is projected to experience a supply-demand mismatch in the next 2-3 years, leading to improved profitability for airlines [17] - The ticket pricing strategy is expected to stabilize in the short term while allowing for potential increases in the long term due to market reforms [17] - Key recommendations include focusing on airlines with strong earnings visibility, such as Spring Airlines and Juneyao Airlines, which are expected to benefit from international route recovery and aircraft utilization [17] Low-altitude Economy and 5G-A Technology - The low-altitude economy is rapidly developing, with a market size of 2.5 trillion yuan in 2022, projected to exceed 6 trillion yuan by 2035 [15] - 5G-A technology is crucial for enabling the low-altitude economy, providing integrated information services and supporting various applications [15] - The integration of 5G-A with low-altitude applications is expected to enhance communication, navigation, and perception capabilities, addressing current network coverage challenges [15] - The low-altitude economy is at a pivotal point of policy and technological convergence, indicating a potential for rapid industry growth [15]

、 航空机场4月投资策略：出游正当时，逢低早布局 交通运输（航空） 证券研究报告/行业月报 2024年4月6日 评级：增持（ 维持 ） [ 重Ta 点ble 公_F 司in 基anc 本e] 状 况 分析师：杜冲 股价 EPS PE 简称 (元) 评级 执业证书编号：S0740522040001 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 电话： 中国东航 3.60 -0.55 -1.68 -0.37 0.30 / / / 11.93 买入 南方航空 5.64 -0.67 -1.80 -0.23 0.34 / / / 16.77 买入 Email：duchong@zts.com.cn 春秋 航空 56.60 0.04 -3.10 2.30 3.44 1215 / 24.56 16.48 买入 联系人：李鼎莹 吉祥航空 12.57 -0.22 -1.87 0.34 0.83 / / 37.05 15.14 买入 电话： 华夏航空 5.98 -0.09 -1.54 -0.61 0.32 / / / 18.81 增持 上海机场 36.73 -0.69 -1.20 0.38 ...

Email:xuchi@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740520120003 Email:zhangwy01@zts.com.cn 如何看待近期政策走势与未来方向？ ◼ 一、如何看待近期政策走势与未来方向？ 二季度以来，根据近期官方媒体和央行的表态，我们可以看到管理层对经济的信 心有所增强。因此，二季度的货币政策和财政政策将更加注重"盘活存量"，即 通过优化资源配置和提高资金使用效率来促进经济发展，而非简单地依赖降息或 降准等传统手段。 参考住建部长两会表态及一系列官媒信号，后续地产政策依然将围绕"保障房建 设"和"保项目"（保交楼）进行，对于企业主体依然将是"市场化、法制化" 的基调不变。 就后市而言，我们认为：对于相对收益投资者，当前时间点应"三减三加"：在 关注微盘题材股（金融监管强化），地产链（地产政策定力），新能源等中下游 细分（中游国央企产能扩张）风险的同时，坚定看好国央企红利，特别是港股红 利，中上游的央企设备、有色以及央企科技龙头的布局机会。二季度应给"稳健 资产"以溢价，投资核心思路是稳健，以应对可能的市场波动显著强于预期。 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 | --- | |- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for WuXi Biologics (2269.HK) with a market price of HKD 13.36 [2]. Core Insights - WuXi Biologics continues to experience rapid growth in non-COVID-related business, with expectations for gradual industry recovery [6]. - The company reported a revenue of HKD 17.05 billion in 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.5%, while net profit decreased by 23.1% to HKD 3.40 billion [6][7]. - Excluding COVID-19 impacts, revenue growth was nearly 40%, with non-COVID revenue reaching approximately HKD 16.51 billion, a 37.7% increase [6][7]. - The company has a robust project pipeline, with 698 total projects, including 51 in Phase III and 24 commercial projects, indicating strong future growth potential [6][7]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: Projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are HKD 17.98 billion, HKD 20.75 billion, and HKD 24.52 billion, respectively, with growth rates of 5.6%, 15.4%, and 18.2% [3][6]. - **Net Profit Forecasts**: Expected net profits for the same years are HKD 3.52 billion, HKD 4.30 billion, and HKD 5.30 billion, with growth rates of 3.6%, 21.9%, and 23.3% [3][6]. - **Key Financial Ratios**: The company’s P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 15.2 in 2023 to 9.7 by 2026, indicating improved valuation attractiveness [3][6]. Business Model and Growth Drivers - The CRDMO business model is expected to continue delivering results, with a significant increase in CMO projects anticipated [6]. - The XDC platform, vaccine projects, and dual antibody platforms are expected to contribute to new growth momentum, with 143 ADC projects and 25 vaccine projects currently in progress [6][7]. - The company has a strong order backlog, with an expected total order value of USD 3.85 billion over the next three years [6][7].