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营业收入创新高,海外业务有望跳变
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES· 2024-04-06 16:00
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][19] Core Views - The company achieved a record high revenue of 5.204 billion yuan in 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 21.45%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 316 million yuan, up 29.34% year-on-year [5] - The company's software business generated revenue of 3.322 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 5.54%. The revenue from the domestic large banks and joint-stock banks contributed 51.04% of the software revenue [5] - The company is actively expanding its AI capabilities and has potential for significant growth in overseas markets through partnerships and innovative financial technology products [6] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue (million yuan): - 2022A: 4,285 - 2023A: 5,204 - 2024E: 5,725 - 2025E: 6,329 - 2026E: 7,027 - Year-on-year growth rates: 15% (2022A), 21% (2023A), 10% (2024E), 11% (2025E), 11% (2026E) [2] - Net Profit (million yuan): - 2022A: 253 - 2023A: 326 - 2024E: 361 - 2025E: 407 - 2026E: 469 - Year-on-year growth rates: -36% (2022A), 29% (2023A), 11% (2024E), 13% (2025E), 15% (2026E) [2] - Gross margin for software development increased by 1.71 percentage points to 31.13% in 2023 [6] - Operating cash flow reached 447 million yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 155.08% [6] Future Outlook - The company forecasts revenue for 2024-2026 to be 5.725 billion yuan, 6.329 billion yuan, and 7.027 billion yuan respectively, with net profits of 361 million yuan, 407 million yuan, and 469 million yuan [19] - The company maintains a P/E ratio forecast of 26 for 2024, 23 for 2025, and 20 for 2026 [19]
房地产行业点评:销售显著下滑,各地持续放松调控政策
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES· 2024-04-06 16:00
、 销售显著下滑,各地持续放松调控政策 -房地产行业点评 房地产 证券研究报告/行业点评报告 2024年4月3日 [T评ab级le_:M增ain持] (维持) [重Ta点ble公_F司in基anc本e]状 况 分析师:由子沛 股价 EPS PE 简称 评级 执业证书编号:S0740523020005 (元/港币) 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 保利发展 8.77 1.53 1.70 2.07 2.73 5.73 5.16 4.24 3.21 买入 Email:youzp@zts.com.cn 招商蛇口 9.05 0.41 1.06 1.31 1.67 22.07 8.54 6.91 5.42 买入 滨江集团 6.72 1.20 1.42 1.76 2.31 5.60 4.73 3.82 2.91 买入 分析师:侯希得 华发股份 8.77 1.53 1.70 2.07 2.73 5.73 5.16 4.24 3.21 买入 备注:股价使用2024年4月3日收盘价 执业证书编号:S0740523080001 Email:houxd@zts.com.cn ...
业绩增长稳健,盈利能力全方位改善
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES· 2024-04-06 16:00
Investment Rating - The report downgrades the investment rating of the company to "Accumulate" [1][8] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 131.38 billion RMB in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 3.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.12 billion RMB, up 13.1% year-on-year [5][6] - The company has maintained a strong operational performance, with a comprehensive gross margin of 13% in 2023, despite a decline of 4.3 percentage points from 2022 [6][8] - The company has focused on core cities, achieving a sales amount of 301.1 billion RMB, with a slight increase in sales area to 15.47 million square meters [7][8] - The financing cost has decreased, with the weighted average interest cost dropping from 4.4% in 2022 to 4.3% in 2023, indicating a stable debt structure [8] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue Forecast: - 2022A: 128.15 billion RMB - 2023A: 131.95 billion RMB - 2024E: 136.10 billion RMB - 2025E: 139.31 billion RMB - 2026E: 142.26 billion RMB - Net Profit Forecast: - 2022A: 2.58 billion RMB - 2023A: 3.09 billion RMB - 2024E: 3.44 billion RMB - 2025E: 3.62 billion RMB - 2026E: 3.74 billion RMB - EPS Forecast: - 2024E: 1.36 RMB - 2025E: 1.43 RMB - 2026E: 1.48 RMB [4][11][12] Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to continue to perform well in core cities, leveraging its strong shareholder background and product reputation to achieve stable growth [8][9] - The report predicts a decline in EPS forecasts for 2024-2026 due to uncertainties in the industry, leading to the downgrade of the rating [8][9]
当前经济与政策思考:关注俄罗斯经济的启动与雄心
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES· 2024-04-06 16:00
——当前经济与政策思考 宏观策略专题报告 、 关注俄罗斯经济的启动与雄心 | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | [Table_Title] 分析师:杨畅 | [ 投资要点 Table_Summary ] | | 执业证书编号: S0740519090004 电话: 021-20315708 | ◼ 从制造业景气来看:全球主要经济体呈现出" 2 强 3 弱 3 猛"格局,其中俄罗斯连续 2 3 个月位于扩张区间,并且提速; | | Email : yangchang@zts.com.cn | ◼ ...
详解农业银行2023年报:业绩增速保持稳健,资产质量继续改善
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES· 2024-04-06 16:00
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months compared to the benchmark index [25]. Core Insights - In 2023, the company's revenue decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 3.9%, indicating a stabilization in profit growth despite a slight decline in revenue [3][30]. - The net interest income showed a year-on-year decline of 3.1%, but the growth rate of non-interest income rebounded to 18.8% [3][30]. - The asset quality continues to improve, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 1.33% at the end of Q4 2023, down 2 basis points from the previous quarter [18][19]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - Revenue growth rates for 2022, Q1 2023, H1 2023, Q1-Q3 2023, and 2023 were 0.01%, 2.09%, 0.79%, -0.60%, and -0.07% respectively. The net profit growth rates were 7.48%, 1.75%, 3.33%, 4.97%, and 3.91% respectively [3][30]. Net Interest Income - In Q4 2023, net interest income decreased by 3.6% quarter-on-quarter, with an annualized net interest margin down by 9 basis points to 1.42% [8][9]. Asset and Liability Growth - In Q4 2023, new loans totaled 284.1 billion, with a decrease in corporate loans by 58.3 billion and retail loans by 24.1 billion. The bond investment grew by 7.1% [9][12]. - Deposits remained stable with a quarter-on-quarter growth rate of 0.1%, adding 41.843 billion in new deposits [9][12]. Asset Quality - The NPL ratio improved to 1.33%, with a net NPL generation rate of 0.09%, down 24 basis points from Q3 [18][19]. - The provision coverage ratio was stable at 303.87%, with a slight decrease of 0.25 percentage points [18][19]. Capital Adequacy - As of the end of Q4 2023, the core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio was 10.72%, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 28 basis points [22][23]. Shareholder Changes - The top ten shareholders saw changes, with Central Huijin Investment Co., Ltd. increasing its stake by 0.11% [22][23]. Investment Recommendations - The company is considered fundamentally sound with a low valuation and high dividend yield, suggesting active monitoring. The report maintains a "Buy" rating [22][23].
详解邮储银行2023年报:零售信贷增长强劲,利息收入表现良好
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES· 2024-04-06 16:00
详解邮储银行2023年报:零售信贷增长强劲,利息收入表现良好 邮储银行(601658)/银行 证券研究报告/公司点评 2024年4月4日 [Table_Industry] [评Ta级ble:_T增itle持] (维持) [公Ta司ble盈_F利in预anc测e]及 估值 市场价格:4.71 指标 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 营业收入(百万元) 334,856 342,398 331,319 328,658 332,902 分析师 戴志锋 增长率yoy% 5.1% 2.3% -3.2% -0.8% 1.3% 执业证书编号:S0740517030004 净利润(百万元) 85,224 86,270 86,798 87,510 89,259 Email:daizf@zts.com.cn 增长率yoy% 11.9% 1.2% 0.6% 0.8% 2.0% 每股收益(元) 0.92 0.87 0.88 0.88 0.90 分析师 邓美君 每股现金流量 执业证书编号:S0740519050002 净资产收益率 12.91% 11.74% 10.65% 9.99% 9.51% Email:d ...
交运行业周报:清明假期落幕,出行需求仍旺
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES· 2024-04-06 16:00
1 、 清明假期落幕,出行需求仍旺 证券研究报告/行业周报 2024年04月06日 交运 评级:增持(维持) ≈[投T a资ble要_S点um mary] 分析师:杜冲 n 投资建议:一、航空机场:清明假期落幕,出行需求仍旺。清明假期期间(2024 年 4 执业证书编号: S0740522040001 月 4日—6日),全国民航预计累计保障旅客 510.15万人次,日均 170.05万人次;预 电话: 计保障航班 46170 班,日均 15390 班,航班正常率 87.59%。根据去哪儿数据显示, Email:duchong@zts.com.cn 2024年清明假期(4月4日-6日),国内热门景区预订量同比去年同期增长5倍,部分 火热景区预约告罄一票难求,以小城市为目的地的机票提前预订量同比增长七成。从 联系人:李鼎莹 旅客结构看,平台上 18 岁—25 岁群体旅客占比超过 20%,是最活跃的出游群体。清 电话: 明旺盛的休闲游出行需求有望延续至五一小长假,带动航空需求进一步回暖。我们认 Email:lidy@zts.com.cn 为中长期看行业基本面向好趋势不改,“十四五”期间飞机引进增速放缓趋势确定,随 ...
润邦股份23年报点评:23年受减值影响有所承压,经营面趋势向上
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES· 2024-04-02 16:00
Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Buy" for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [12]. Core Insights - The company is projected to experience significant revenue growth, with estimates increasing from 5,174 million in 2022 to 12,848 million by 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 19% [12]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from 0.06 in 2024 to 0.61 in 2026, showcasing a strong upward trend [12]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is forecasted to decrease from 75.9 in 2024 to 7.8 in 2026, suggesting improved profitability and valuation attractiveness over time [12]. - The company is anticipated to maintain a healthy return on equity (ROE), projected to increase from 1.3% in 2024 to 9.0% in 2026 [12]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the upcoming years are as follows: 7,183 million in 2023, 8,750 million in 2024, 10,778 million in 2025, and 12,848 million in 2026, indicating a robust growth trajectory [12]. - The net income is expected to grow significantly, with estimates of 1,520 million in 2024 and reaching 2,232 million by 2026 [12]. - The company's operating margin is projected to improve from 68.5% in 2023 to 64.3% in 2026, reflecting operational efficiency [12].
人工智能行业双周报:工信部强调AI赋能制造业发展,财跃星辰发布财跃F1金融大模型
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES· 2024-04-02 16:00
工信部强调AI赋能制造业发展,财跃星辰发布财跃F1金融大模型 --人工智能行业双周报 计算机 证券研究报告/行业周报 2024年4月3日 评级:增持(维持) [重Ta点ble公_F司ina基nc本e]状 况 分析师:闻学臣 市值(亿 收入(亿元) PS 评级 简称 PSG 执业证书编号:S0740519090007 元) 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2023 科大讯飞 1,128 188.2 201.7 235.7 288.6 6 6 5 4 0.29 买入 Email:wenxc@zts.com.cn 金山办公 1,344 380.8 5 46.66 60.22 76.27 35 29 22 18 1.03 买入 万兴科技 129 11.80 14.89 19.63 25.52 11 9 7 5 0.28 买入 联系人:王雪晴 中科创达 236 54.45 52.42 61.91 74.58 4 4 4 3 0.23 买入 彩讯股份 84 11.95 15.82 20.56 26.47 7 5 4 3 0.18 买入 Email:wangxq0 ...
EDA系列报告之二:薪火相传,翱翔九天
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES· 2024-04-02 16:00
EDA 系列报告之二——华大九天:薪火相传,翱翔九天 华大九天(301269.SZ)/计 证券研究报告/公司深度报告 2024年 04月03日 算机 [评Ta级ble:_T增itle持] (首次覆盖) [公Ta司ble盈_F利in预anc测e1及] 估值 市场价格:83.84 指标 2021A 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 营业收入(百万元) 579 798 1,021 1,326 1,729 分析师:闻学臣 增长率yoy% 39.7% 37.8% 27.9% 29.8% 30.4% 执业证书编号:S0740519090007 净利润(百万元) 139 186 200 37 147 Email:wenxc@zts.com.cn 增长率yoy% 34.5% 33.2% 7.6% -81.2% 292.5% 每股收益(元) 0.26 0.34 0.37 0.07 0.27 每股现金流量 0.58 0.82 0.55 0.20 0.50 研究助理:刘一哲 净资产收益率 14.0% 4.0% 4.2% 0.8% 3.1% Email:liuyz03@zts.com.cn P/E 327 245 22 ...