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Q1开门红,客户+新业务支撑业绩兑现,整椅打开中长期空间
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES· 2024-03-31 16:00
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating, expecting a relative increase of over 15% in the stock price compared to the benchmark index within the next 6 to 12 months [10]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.52 billion yuan for 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 35.4%, and a net profit of 0.91 billion yuan, which is a 99.3% increase year-on-year [14][15]. - The company anticipates continued growth in 2024, with projected revenue of 2.58 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.90 billion yuan, reflecting growth rates of 70% and 108% respectively [14][15]. - The report highlights the company's strong performance driven by new business initiatives and customer demand, particularly in the automotive sector [6][14]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Growth Rate**: The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth rate of 35.4% in 2023, 70.0% in 2024, 26.9% in 2025, and 19.2% in 2026 [9]. - **Net Profit Growth Rate**: The net profit growth rates are projected at 99.3% for 2023, 108.0% for 2024, 48.0% for 2025, and 25.1% for 2026 [9]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: The EPS is forecasted to increase from 1.14 yuan in 2023 to 4.39 yuan by 2026 [14][15]. - **Operating Cash Flow**: The operating cash flow is expected to rise from 328 million yuan in 2024 to 450 million yuan in 2026 [2][15]. Cash Flow Analysis - **Operating Cash Flow**: The operating cash flow is projected to be 328 million yuan in 2024, increasing to 450 million yuan by 2026 [2]. - **Investment Cash Flow**: The investment cash flow is expected to be negative, with projections of -370 million yuan in 2024 and -308 million yuan in 2026 [2]. - **Financing Cash Flow**: The financing cash flow is anticipated to be positive in 2024 at 372 million yuan, but negative in subsequent years [2]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is positioned as a leader in the automotive seating market, with significant growth potential driven by new product lines and customer demand [14]. - The report emphasizes the company's strategic focus on expanding its market share in the automotive sector, particularly in high-quality seating solutions [14].
业绩符合预期,发力边缘AI方向
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES· 2024-03-31 16:00
业绩符合预期,发力边缘 AI 方向 公司点评 ◼ 风险提示:行业竞争加剧风险;海外贸易争端产生芯片供应风险;外汇波动风 险;研报信息更新不及时的风险 来源:wind,中泰证券研究所 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 - 3 - | --- | --- | --- | |----------|-------|--------------------------------------------------------------| | | 评级 | 说明 | | | 买入 | 预期未来 6~12 个月内相对同期基准指数涨幅在 15% 以上 | | | 增持 | 预期未来 6~12 个月内相对同期基准指数涨幅在 5%~15% 之间 | | 股票评级 | 持有 | 预期未来 6~12 个月内相对同期基准指数涨幅在 -10%~+5% 之间 | | | 减持 | 预期未来 6~12 个月内相对同期基准指数跌幅在 10% 以上 | | | 增持 | 预期未来 6~12 个月内对同期基准指数涨幅在 10% 以上 | | 行业评级 | 中性 | 预期未来 6~12 个月内对同期基准指数涨幅在 -10%~+10% 之间 | ...
银行专题 | 详细拆解国有大型银行(六家)年报:持续性会如何?
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES· 2024-03-31 16:00
、 专题 | 详细拆解国有大型银行(六家)年报:持续性会如何? 银行 证券研究报告/专题研究报告 2024年03月31日 评级:增持(维持) 投资要点 分析师 戴志锋 ◼ 核心要点:国有银行利润2023全年均实现正增,报表拆解后,预计息差和收入压力 执业证书编号:S0740517030004 增加;同时资产质量、高拨备和较充足的资本保障其稳健性。1、六大行营收同比- Email:daizf@zts.com.cn 0.6%(3Q23同比-0.4%);净利润同比+2.1%(3Q23同比+2.5%),六大行利润均实现 分析师 邓美君 正增,规模高增是主贡献、息差是主拖累。2、资产质量存量包袱小,新生不良压力 小:不良生成率同比下降12bp,不良率环比维持平稳;大行拨贷比3.12%,环比下 执业证书编号:S0740519050002 降4bp。3、核心一级资本充足率环比上升25bp至11.97%; Email:dengmj@zts.com.cn ◼ 营收和利润增速拆解:营收同比-0.6%,净利润同比+2.1%;规模主驱动。1、营收情 研究助理 杨超伦 况:同比-0.6%,符合预期、规模高增驱动;中行邮储维持正增。营收 ...
2024年3月PMI数据解读:需求回暖推动PMI重回荣枯线上
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES· 2024-03-31 16:00
宏观月度报告 | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...
2023年年报点评:内销提价、外销提量逻辑持续兑现
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES· 2024-03-31 16:00
Investment Rating - The investment rating for Hisense Visual (600060) is "Buy" (maintained) with a market price of 23.91 CNY [1][15]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 53.6 billion CNY for 2023, representing a 17% year-over-year growth, and a net profit of 2.1 billion CNY, which is a 25% increase [5]. - The company has a dividend payout ratio of 50.2%, resulting in a dividend yield of 3.4% [5]. - The revenue breakdown for 2023 indicates that domestic sales were driven by price increases, while international sales were driven by volume growth [6]. - The company expects to maintain a strong pricing power in the domestic market despite a decline in overall TV sales [9]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for the upcoming years are as follows: - 2024E: 62.5 billion CNY - 2025E: 68.6 billion CNY - 2026E: 72.9 billion CNY - Net profit forecasts are: - 2024E: 2.4 billion CNY - 2025E: 2.8 billion CNY - 2026E: 3.3 billion CNY [1][10]. - The expected growth rates for revenue and net profit are 17% and 16% respectively for 2024E [1][10]. Market Dynamics - The company is expected to benefit from a gradual slowdown in panel price increases, which will enhance profit margins in the second half of the year [10]. - Hisense's long-term growth is anticipated to be driven by overseas markets, leveraging its manufacturing capabilities and increasing sales of large-screen products [9]. Valuation Metrics - The projected P/E ratios for the upcoming years are: - 2024E: 13X - 2025E: 11X - 2026E: 10X [10]. - The projected P/B ratios are: - 2024E: 1.8 - 2025E: 1.7 - 2026E: 1.5 [1].
交运行业周报:低空经济迎政策机遇,关注通用航空发展空间
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES· 2024-03-31 16:00
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The low-altitude economy is gaining policy opportunities, with a strong expectation for the development of general aviation. The low-altitude economy was first included in the government work report in 2024, indicating significant future growth potential [1][12] - By the end of 2023, there were over 1.26 million drones in China, a year-on-year increase of approximately 32%. The Civil Aviation Administration of China has approved the establishment of 17 civil unmanned aviation experimental zones and 3 experimental bases [1][12] - The aviation sector is expected to see a recovery in demand, with domestic airlines planning to operate 101,536 domestic flights weekly during the summer and autumn seasons of 2024, a 2.5% increase compared to 2023 [1][12] - The report highlights the potential for significant market growth in the low-altitude economy, projecting a market size of over one trillion yuan by 2030 [1][12] Summary by Sections 1. Core Viewpoints and Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the favorable policies for the low-altitude economy and the expected growth in general aviation, with a focus on the development of related industries [1][12] - It suggests that the aviation sector will benefit from a recovery in demand, with airlines expected to see a rebound in performance [1][12] 2. Key Targets - Recommended stocks include: - 吉祥航空 (Jixiang Airlines) with projected P/E ratios of 35.81X/14.63X/8.62X for 2023-2025 [14] - 春秋航空 (Spring Airlines) with projected P/E ratios of 24.01X/16.11X/12.73X for 2023-2025 [14] - 上海机场 (Shanghai Airport) with projected P/E ratios of 98.15X/32.00X/22.22X for 2023-2025 [14] - 南方航空 (China Southern Airlines) with projected P/E ratios of 16.62X/6.93X/6.30X for 2024-2026 [14] - 中国东航 (China Eastern Airlines) with projected P/E ratios of 12.06X/6.38X/5.95X for 2024-2026 [14] - 青岛港 (Qingdao Port) with projected P/E ratios of 8.85X/7.98X/7.28X for 2024-2026 [14] 3. Aviation and Airport Data Tracking - The report tracks daily flight operations and average aircraft utilization rates, noting fluctuations among major airlines [2][3] - It provides data on the average number of flights and passenger throughput at key airports, indicating varying trends in domestic and international routes [2][3] 4. Shipping and Port Data Tracking - The report includes indices for container shipping, bulk shipping, and oil transportation, highlighting recent trends in shipping rates and oil prices [3] 5. Railway and Highway Data Tracking - The report discusses the performance of railway and highway sectors, emphasizing the attractiveness of low valuations and high dividend yields [12] 6. Performance of the Transportation Sector and Individual Stocks - The report notes the overall performance of the transportation sector, indicating a 0.5% increase in the sector [11]
详解浙商银行2023年报:业绩增长稳健;营收同比+4%、净利润同比+10.5%
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES· 2024-03-31 16:00
详解浙商银行2023年报:业绩增长稳健;营收同比+4%、净利润同比+10.5% 浙商银行(601916)/银行 证券研究报告/公司点评 2024年3月31日 [Table_Industry] [评Ta级ble:_T增itle持] (维持) [公Ta司ble盈_F利in预anc测e]及 估值 市场价格:2.99 指标 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 营业收入(百万元) 60,959 63,479 65,666 67,339 69,250 分析师 戴志锋 增长率yoy% 12.05% 4.13% 3.45% 2.55% 2.84% 执业证书编号:S0740517030004 净利润(百万元) 13,618 15,048 15,998 16,921 17,684 Email:daizf@zts.com.cn 增长率yoy% 7.67% 10.50% 6.31% 5.77% 4.51% 每股收益(元) 0.60 0.55 0.58 0.62 0.64 分析师 邓美君 每股现金流量 执业证书编号:S0740519050002 净资产收益率 10.39% 10.06% 9.56% 9.40% ...
拐点将至,未来可期
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES· 2024-03-31 16:00
拐点将至,未来可期 [Table_Title] 评级:买入(维持) [Table_Finance] 公司盈利预测及估值 指标 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 营业收入(百万元) 1,525 1,630 1,959 2,294 2,586 增长率 yoy% 11% 7% 20% 17% 13% 净利润(百万元) 222 214 248 293 338 增长率 yoy% -29% -4% 16% 18% 15% 每股收益(元) 0.89 0.85 0.99 1.17 1.35 每股现金流量 0.77 0.98 1.28 1.30 1.49 净资产收益率 11% 10% 10% 11% 11% P/E 19.2 20.0 17.3 14.6 12.7 P/B 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.5 备注:股价选取 2024 年 3 月 29 日收盘。 市场价格:17.10 元 [基本状况 Table_Profit] 总股本(百万股) 250 流通股本(百万股) 248 市价(元) 17.10 市值(百万元) 4,277 流通市值(百万元) 4,241 巴比食品(605338.SH)/食 ...
详解渝农商行2023年报:基建+小微保持较高增速,资产质量持续
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES· 2024-03-31 16:00
根据年报 详解渝农商行2023年报:基建+小微保持较高增速,资产质量持续改善 渝农商行(601077.SH)/银行 证券研究报告/公司点评 2024年03月30日 [Table_Industry] [评Ta级ble:_T增itle持] (维持) [公Ta司ble盈_F利in预anc测e]及 估值 市场价格:4.66 指标 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 营业收入(百万元) 28,956 27,902 27,058 26,788 26,788 分析师 戴志锋 增长率yoy% -6.0% -3.6% -3.0% -1.0% 0.0% 执业证书编号:S0740517030004 净利润(百万元) 10,276 10,900 11,501 12,074 12,623 Email: daizf@zts.com.cn 增长率yoy% 7.5% 6.1% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 每股收益(元) 0.90 0.96 1.01 1.06 1.11 分析师 邓美君 净资产收益率 9.44% 9.28% 9.36% 9.40% 9.18% 执业证书编号:S0740519050002 P/E 5.1 ...
煤炭行业周报:坑口煤价突围探涨,港口煤价止跌在即
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES· 2024-03-31 16:00
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal industry [4]. Core Views - The coal industry is experiencing a high level of prosperity driven by capacity cycles, with significant reductions in excess capacity achieved through supply-side reforms since 2016 [38]. - The report anticipates a rebound in port coal prices due to the release of non-electric coal demand, with recent price increases observed in the Shaanxi region [4][39]. - The coal sector is characterized by high dividends, low valuations, and a recovery in demand, highlighting its investment value [4]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The coal industry has undergone substantial capacity reductions, exceeding targets set by government policies, leading to a tighter supply environment [38]. - The report notes that the actual new coal production capacity is limited, with future releases expected to be modest [38]. Market Trends - As of March 29, 2024, the price of Shanxi-produced power coal (Q5500) at the Jing Tang Port is 836.0 CNY/ton, reflecting a 0.5% decrease week-on-week and a 22.4% decrease year-on-year [39][44]. - The report indicates that the market for coking coal is stable, with prices for main coking coal remaining unchanged at 1,960.0 CNY/ton [40][44]. Company Performance - China Shenhua reported a commodity coal production of 25.9 million tons in February 2024, with a slight year-on-year increase [5]. - Yancoal Energy's production in Q3 2023 was 33.45 million tons, showing a year-on-year decrease of 1.47% [6]. - The report highlights key companies for investment, including China Shenhua, Yancoal Energy, and others in the coking coal sector [4][39]. Price Tracking - The report provides a comprehensive overview of coal prices, indicating a general downward trend in both domestic and international markets, with specific price points for various coal types [40][41][44]. - The ARA index for international coal prices shows a significant year-on-year decline, reflecting broader market conditions [48]. Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong fundamentals and potential for recovery, particularly in the power coal and coking coal segments [4][39].