Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Increase Holding" [19] Core Insights - The North Exchange will officially launch the North Certificate Specialized, Refined, Unique, and New Index on June 30, 2025, providing multi-dimensional investment targets and performance benchmarks [3][13] - The index will consist of the 50 largest market capitalization stocks from the North Exchange's specialized, refined, unique, and new "small giant" companies, reflecting the overall performance of these listed companies [5][13] - The index will be based on a reference date of June 28, 2024, with a base point of 1000 [3][13] Summary by Sections North Certificate Specialized, Refined, Unique, and New Index - The index is designed to select well-performing companies with no legal violations and stable financial reports, ranked by average daily trading volume over the past six months [5][14] - The index will undergo semi-annual reviews to adjust its sample based on stability and dynamic tracking principles, with a maximum adjustment ratio of 20% [5][14] Investment Strategy for North Exchange - The report anticipates significant achievements in the high-quality development of the North Exchange in 2025, recommending attention to specific sectors: 1. Data Centers: Companies like Krait and Shuguang Data Creation are highlighted for their advantages in nuclear power and liquid cooling technology [15] 2. Robotics: Companies such as Suzhou Axis and Audiwei are noted for their leadership in needle bearings and ultrasonic sensors [15] 3. Semiconductors: Hualing Co. and Kaide Quartz are recognized as leaders in semiconductor testing and quartz devices [15] 4. Consumer Goods: Companies like Taihu Snow and Baixinglong are mentioned for their innovative products in silk and packaging [15] 5. Military Information Technology: Chengdian Optoelectronics and Xingtian Measurement Control are identified as key players benefiting from military upgrades and satellite internet construction [15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry [1][5][63] Core Views - The silver market is experiencing a rebound, while the gold-silver ratio is correcting from high levels. Short-term gold prices are expected to remain volatile due to underwhelming U.S. economic data and reduced safe-haven demand amid easing U.S.-China trade tensions. However, medium to long-term prospects remain positive as persistent inflation in the U.S. suggests a "stagflation-recession" phase, with gold prices likely to rise [5][63]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The precious metals sector outperformed the CSI 300 index by 2.70 percentage points, with a weekly increase of 3.58%. The leading stock was Shengda Resources, which rose by 17.29% [5][17]. - As of June 6, COMEX gold settled at $3,346.60 per ounce, up 0.94%, and COMEX silver at $36.14 per ounce, up 9.42%. SHFE gold closed at ¥783.24 per gram, up 1.48%, and SHFE silver at ¥8,850 per kilogram, up 7.69% [5][16][17]. Economic Data Tracking - U.S. economic indicators for May were below expectations, with the ISM manufacturing PMI at 48.5 (expected 49.2) and the non-manufacturing PMI at 49.9 (expected 52.0). The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2% [5][29][30]. - Inflation remains moderate, with April's CPI at 2.3%, below the expected 2.4%, and core CPI steady at 2.8% [5][29][30]. Gold Investment Trends - As of May 2025, China's official gold reserves increased to 7.383 million ounces, marking the seventh consecutive month of growth. Gold ETF holdings rose to 1,367.89 tons, a 2.11-ton increase [5][52][54]. - The COMEX non-commercial net long positions increased to 187,900 contracts, up from 174,200 contracts [5][57]. Gold-Silver Ratio - The gold-silver ratio as of June 6 is 92.30, down 6.78 from previous levels, indicating a potential correction in silver prices relative to gold [5][59].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Increase Holding" [1][4] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue growth in 2024, with projected revenue of 818 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 41% [4] - Despite the revenue growth, the company's net profit is forecasted to decline to 36 million yuan in 2024, a decrease of 33.64% year-on-year, primarily due to increased low-margin orders and higher impairment losses [4] - The company is actively expanding its PEEK material development, targeting high-end applications in medical and humanoid robotics, which may contribute to future revenue growth [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue for 2023 is reported at 580 million yuan, with a projected increase to 818 million yuan in 2024, and further growth expected to reach 1,277 million yuan by 2027 [1][5] - The company's net profit for 2023 was 54 million yuan, with a forecasted decline to 36 million yuan in 2024, followed by a recovery to 68 million yuan by 2027 [1][5] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from 0.26 yuan in 2024 to 0.48 yuan by 2027 [1][5] Product Segmentation - In 2024, the modified engineering plastics segment is expected to generate 346 million yuan in revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 42.07% [4] - The styrene segment is projected to achieve 339 million yuan in revenue, reflecting a 33.74% increase [4] - The overall gross margin is anticipated to decline due to the rising proportion of low-margin orders from the home appliance sector [4] Research and Development - The company has increased its R&D investment by 35% in 2024, accounting for 3.38% of revenue, and has added four new invention patents [4] - New projects, including flame-retardant PC/ABS alloys and PBT, are entering trial production, which is expected to enhance the company's technological edge [4] Market Positioning - The company is focusing on expanding its presence in high-value sectors such as new energy, 5G communication, and humanoid robotics while maintaining its traditional markets [4] - The company aims to leverage its technological innovations and product upgrades to drive future growth [4]

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the REITs industry [2]. Core Insights - The total market capitalization of the REITs industry has surpassed 200 billion yuan, reaching 2020.74 billion yuan, with 66 listed companies [2]. - The REITs index increased by 1.58% this week, with operational rights REITs rising by 3.74% and property rights REITs by 0.01% [12][16]. - The report highlights a significant increase in issuance pace, with several REITs launching and experiencing high subscription rates [6][9]. Market Performance Summary - The REITs index performance this week shows a 1.58% increase, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which rose by 0.88%, and the CSI 500 Index, which increased by 1.60% [12][16]. - The trading volume for the week was 20.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.1%, with daily turnover rates averaging 0.4% [35]. - Specific sectors within REITs showed varied performance, with highway REITs seeing a 19.9% increase in trading volume, while clean energy REITs experienced a 40.3% decline [35]. Key Events - The issuance price for the CICC Yizhuang Industrial Park REIT was set at 2.720 yuan per share, with a total of 400 million shares available, and an initial subscription rate of 265.76 times [6][9]. - The Huaxia Special Transformer New Energy REIT saw a cumulative increase of 50.63% before a temporary suspension of trading [6][9]. - The report notes ongoing inquiries and feedback from exchanges regarding various REITs, indicating active regulatory engagement [6][9]. Valuation Situation - The estimated yield for various REITs ranges from -2.47% to 10.52%, with the highest yield observed in the Huaxia China Communications REIT at 10.52% [41]. - The Price-to-NAV (P/NAV) ratio for REITs varies between 0.77 and 1.79, indicating differing valuations across the sector [41].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The central government continues to support urban renewal, with 20 cities selected as demonstration cities, while both new and second-hand housing transaction volumes have shrunk [7] - The report emphasizes that stable real estate companies are key investment focuses, particularly those with strong financial health and good performance, such as Yuexiu Property, China Merchants Shekou, Poly Developments, and others [7] Summary by Sections Weekly Market Review - The Shenwan Real Estate Index rose by 0.86%, while the CSI 300 Index increased by 0.88%, indicating a relative underperformance of the real estate sector [3][12] Industry Fundamentals - In the week of May 30 to June 5, the total transaction volume of new homes in 38 key cities was 21,688 units, a year-on-year decrease of 26.9% and a month-on-month decrease of 27.2% [5][21] - The total transaction area was 218.5 million square meters, with a year-on-year decrease of 34.5% and a month-on-month decrease of 27.9% [5][21] - The inventory of commercial housing in 17 key cities was 187.25 million square meters, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.4% and a depletion cycle of 143.7 weeks [5][51] Land Market Supply and Transactions - In the week of May 26 to June 1, land supply was 35.949 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 14.3%, with an average supply price of 2,157 yuan per square meter, up 60.3% year-on-year [6] - Land transaction volume was 23.175 million square meters, with a year-on-year increase of 23.2%, and the transaction amount reached 35.71 billion yuan, up 50.7% year-on-year [6] Financing Analysis - Real estate companies issued a total of 6.5 billion yuan in credit bonds in the week of May 30 to June 5, with a year-on-year increase of 12.07% and a month-on-month increase of 11.88% [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][8] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve revenue growth of 16% in 2024, with a projected revenue of 75.45 billion yuan and a net profit of 6.84 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 26% [5][6] - The company maintains a strong focus on its core business and innovation, with significant breakthroughs in research and development, and a high proportion of R&D investment [5][6] - The company has successfully expanded its business across six major directions, achieving new contracts exceeding 10 billion yuan in 2024 [5][6] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue (in million yuan) is projected to grow from 6,478 in 2023 to 11,926 in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 16% [1][6] - Net profit (in million yuan) is expected to increase from 541 in 2023 to 1,175 in 2027, with a CAGR of about 15% [1][6] - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.40 in 2023 to 0.88 in 2027 [1][6] Business Segments - The company’s revenue from its three main business segments in 2024 includes: - Dispatch and cloud services: 12.90 billion yuan (up 17.11% year-on-year) - Power transmission and transformation automation: 8.57 billion yuan (up 37.50% year-on-year) - Intelligent distribution and utilization: 43.24 billion yuan (up 17.06% year-on-year) [5][6] R&D and Innovation - The company has 309 ongoing projects, with 220 newly initiated and 104 completed in 2024, alongside 104 patent authorizations [5][6] - The company actively participates in the publication of national and industry standards, with 24 contributions in 2024 [5][6] Market Position and Outlook - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the accelerated construction of new power systems, with its core competitiveness continuing to stand out [5][6] - The company’s operational efficiency is improving, and it is expected to maintain stable growth in its business performance [5][6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes that the recent phone call between the Chinese and U.S. presidents has injected stability into the complex bilateral relationship, with both sides agreeing to hold further talks soon [3][14]. - The report indicates that the probability of risk escalation in the short term is low, as the official communication from both sides highlights a commitment to existing agreements and a focus on advancing negotiations [4][14]. - Structural differences between China and the U.S. remain significant, particularly on key issues such as rare earth exports, TikTok regulations, and the "fentanyl tax," with no clear commitments made by China in the official statements [4][15]. Group 2 - The report suggests that the Trump administration's potential strategic concessions are primarily driven by political calculations related to upcoming elections, particularly concerning the automotive industry in key swing states [5][17]. - Investment recommendations are made in the context of a stabilizing market influenced by U.S.-China relations, with a focus on sectors such as new consumption, safety assets, technology chains, and high-dividend assets [6][18]. - Specific strategies include taking profits in the new consumption sector due to high valuations and potential risks, while suggesting a focus on safety assets and technology sectors that may benefit from easing export restrictions [19][20]. Group 3 - The report outlines a market outlook characterized by volatility, with major indices showing upward trends, particularly in small-cap growth sectors [12][23]. - It highlights that the market's overall activity has increased, with significant trading volumes and a notable rise in the turnover rate for major indices [12][35]. - The report also tracks valuation indicators, noting that certain industries, such as defense and automotive, are trading above historical median valuations, indicating potential investment opportunities [40][44].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [1] Core Insights - The real estate market is experiencing a sales decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.8% in sales area and 3.2% in sales amount for the first four months of 2025. However, there are signs of marginal recovery as policies aimed at stabilizing the market take effect [5][14] - The overall investment in real estate development has decreased by 10.3% year-on-year, indicating continued pressure on the investment front, with new construction and completion rates also showing weakness [30][38] - Financing conditions remain tight, with a 4.1% year-on-year decline in funds available to real estate developers, although there are indications of potential improvement as policies to support financing are implemented [38][40] - The report highlights that the central government's policies are focused on stabilizing sales and funding, which is expected to lead to a gradual recovery in the industry [49] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Macro Data Summary - In the first four months of 2025, the total sales area of commercial housing was 28,262 million square meters, down 2.8% year-on-year, while the sales amount reached 27,035 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.2% [11][12] 2. Sales Recovery and Policy Effects - Sales area and amount showed slight improvements compared to the previous months, with policies aimed at reducing down payments and interest rates contributing to market stabilization [5][14] 3. Investment Pressure and Construction Trends - Real estate investment fell by 10.3% year-on-year, with new construction area down 23.8% and completion area down 16.9% [30][38] 4. Funding and Financing Conditions - Funds available to developers decreased by 4.1% year-on-year, but domestic loans and foreign investment showed positive growth, indicating potential for future improvement [38][40] 5. Policy Relaxation and Price Trends - The report notes a continued easing of policies, with a gradual stabilization of housing prices expected as market conditions improve [40] 6. Leading Companies and Valuation Recovery - The report suggests that leading real estate companies are showing signs of recovery, with an expectation of valuation improvement as market conditions stabilize [47]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal industry [2][5]. Core Views - The coal demand is strengthening, with port inventories continuously decreasing. The recent stabilization in coal prices is driven by the upcoming peak summer demand and a contraction in supply [7][8]. - The report highlights that the daily coal consumption in coastal and inland provinces has increased, indicating a recovery in coal demand. As of June 5, the total daily consumption reached 4.854 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 7.46% and a year-on-year increase of 1.08% [7][8]. - The report suggests that the coal prices are expected to rebound as the summer peak demand approaches, with significant inventory reductions at ports [7][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The coal industry consists of 37 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 1,748.67 billion yuan and a circulating market capitalization of 1,709.58 billion yuan [2]. 2. Price Tracking - The report tracks various coal prices, including thermal coal and coking coal, indicating a recent decline in prices but a potential for recovery due to increased demand [8][9]. 3. Inventory Tracking - Port inventories are decreasing, with Qinhuangdao port's coal inventory dropping to 6.55 million tons as of June 6, a week-on-week decrease of 200,000 tons [7][8]. 4. Downstream Performance - The report notes improvements in downstream consumption, particularly in power plants, which are expected to drive coal demand higher in the coming months [7][8]. 5. Company Performance - Key companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and Yancoal are highlighted for their strong performance and potential for growth, with recommendations for investment in these stocks [8][12].

中 泰 证 券 研 究 所 专 业 ｜ 领 先 ｜ 深 度 ｜ 诚 信 ｜ 证 券 研 究 报 告 ｜ 行业筑底企稳，坚守人工智能产业趋势 ——2024年&25Q1计算机行业总结 2 0 2 5 . 0 6 . 0 5 分析师：闻学臣 执业证书编号：S0740519090007 分析师：刘一哲 执业证书编号：S0740525030001 分析师：何柄谕 执业证书编号：S0740519090003 分析师：王雪晴 执业证书编号：S0740524120003 分析师：苏仪 执业证书编号：S0740520060001 分析师：蒋丹 执业证书编号：S0740525030004 2024年与25Q1计算机板块回顾 ◼ 强预期与弱现实彼此交织，计算机板块波动加剧。过去一年多以来，计算机板块经历了2024年初小微盘股流动性危机 下的暴跌与暴涨式修复，宏观影响下Q2板块基本面持续承压带来的指数持续下探与机构持续减仓，924以来信心修复 与流动性增多带来的估值提升，以及2025年初Deepseek重新推动中国科技重估带来的新一轮上涨。宏观经济增长放缓、 下游支出力度受限带来的基本面承压（弱现实），与AI、自主可控主题在当前全球 ...