中 泰 证 券 研 究 所 专 业 ｜ 领 先 ｜ 深 度 ｜ 诚 信 ｜ 证 券 研 究 报 告 ｜ 行业筑底企稳，坚守人工智能产业趋势 ——2024年&25Q1计算机行业总结 2 0 2 5 . 0 6 . 0 5 分析师：闻学臣 执业证书编号：S0740519090007 分析师：刘一哲 执业证书编号：S0740525030001 分析师：何柄谕 执业证书编号：S0740519090003 分析师：王雪晴 执业证书编号：S0740524120003 分析师：苏仪 执业证书编号：S0740520060001 分析师：蒋丹 执业证书编号：S0740525030004 2024年与25Q1计算机板块回顾 ◼ 强预期与弱现实彼此交织，计算机板块波动加剧。过去一年多以来，计算机板块经历了2024年初小微盘股流动性危机 下的暴跌与暴涨式修复，宏观影响下Q2板块基本面持续承压带来的指数持续下探与机构持续减仓，924以来信心修复 与流动性增多带来的估值提升，以及2025年初Deepseek重新推动中国科技重估带来的新一轮上涨。宏观经济增长放缓、 下游支出力度受限带来的基本面承压（弱现实），与AI、自主可控主题在当前全球 ...

宏观局势反复，基本金属价格区间震荡 有色金属 证券研究报告/行业定期报告 2025 年 06 月 04 日 | 增持（维持） | 报告摘要 | 评级： | 【本周关键词】：美联储对降息持谨慎态度，法院叫停关税后被上诉暂缓，美国对钢 |  | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁及铝追加关税至 | 50%。 | 分析师：谢鸿鹤 | 投资建议：趋势的延续，维持行业"增持"评级。 |  | | | | | | | | | | | | 最新美联储会议纪要显示，面对不确定性，采取谨慎的货币政策是适当的，降息概率 | 执业证书编号：S0740517080003 | 下降。与此同时，美国关税政策变数不断，市场普遍抱有观望和担忧的心态。宏观局 | Email：xiehh@zts.com.cn | | | | | | | | | | | | | 势反复叠加基本面缺乏方向指引，预计短期基本金属价格区间震荡。长期在供需格局 | 分析师： ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector [3] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the arrival of a new era for innovative drugs, highlighting the strong performance of the sector in May 2025, with a 6.4% increase in the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 4.6% [10][22] - It suggests a focus on companies transitioning from biotech to biopharma and those in traditional pharma that are innovating [9] - The report identifies significant investment opportunities in AI-driven healthcare and medical services, indicating that the industry is just beginning to harness the potential of artificial intelligence [9] - The report anticipates a recovery in performance and valuation for CRO&CDMO, upstream research, and specialty raw materials, with Q2 performance expected to improve [9][11] Summary by Sections June Industry Investment Outlook - The report encourages embracing the innovative drug era and actively positioning for Q2 performance [9] - It highlights key recommended stocks for June, including WuXi AppTec, Sangamo Therapeutics, Changchun High-tech, Betta Pharmaceuticals, Nanwei Medical, Kunming Pharmaceutical, Nuotai Biological, Dian Diagnostics, Tianyu Co., and Boan Biotechnology [12] Market Dynamics - In May 2025, the pharmaceutical sector saw all sub-sectors increase, with chemical pharmaceuticals rising by 9.77%, biological products by 7.29%, and medical services by 6.00% [10][22] - The report notes that the pharmaceutical sector's valuation is currently at 23.4 times PE, with a premium of 29.3% over the broader A-share market [27] Key Company Performances - The report highlights the record-breaking BD transaction of 1.25 billion USD by Sangamo Therapeutics, which has catalyzed investment enthusiasm in innovative drugs [10] - It mentions that 71 original research results from Chinese pharmaceutical companies were presented at ASCO, showcasing their growing international competitiveness [10] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong growth potential, such as WuXi AppTec, Sangamo Therapeutics, and Changchun High-tech, among others [12][14] - It also suggests monitoring companies in the AI healthcare sector and those poised for recovery in the traditional pharmaceutical space [9][11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry [2] Core Insights - The correlation between regional economic conditions and bank valuations is increasing, with banks focusing on serving the local real economy [5] - Shandong's strategic position is highlighted by national-level initiatives such as the new and old kinetic energy conversion pilot zone, driving strong infrastructure and industrial momentum [5] - The dual task of upgrading traditional industries and fostering emerging sectors in Shandong is expected to sustain strong financial demand, with projected credit growth of 8%-11% in 2025 [5] - The regional risk situation is manageable, with city investment risks concentrated in specific counties and a significant improvement in the credit environment [5] - Recommended focus on quality banks within the province, such as Qilu Bank and Qingdao Bank, which are maintaining high credit growth and improving market share [5] Summary by Sections Economic Dynamics - The "Seven Networks" plan establishes long-term infrastructure momentum, driving traditional and new infrastructure financial demand [5][18] - Shandong's economic structure is more traditional compared to Jiangsu and Zhejiang, with a strong demand for green finance and technological upgrades [5][30] - The province's credit growth is expected to remain stable, with a 9.7% growth rate in Q1 2025, second only to Sichuan and Jiangsu among major provinces [5][15] Infrastructure Investment - Infrastructure loan growth in Shandong is projected to surpass that of Sichuan and Jiangsu by 2024, with significant investment targets set for 2025 [23][26] - The government aims for 3,900 key projects to be operational by 2025, exceeding the 2,600 projects planned for 2024 [26] Industry Transformation - Shandong is the only national-level pilot zone for new and old kinetic energy conversion, fostering both traditional upgrades and emerging economic demands [30][32] - The province's industrial structure is gradually optimizing, with traditional industries still dominant but new sectors gaining traction [5][30] Regional Banking Landscape - Qilu Bank and Qingdao Bank are highlighted for their robust credit growth and improving market share, with a focus on the manufacturing and retail sectors [6][11] - The asset quality of regional banks is stable, with a decreasing trend in non-performing loans [6][11]

- The report introduces the **Industry Basic Tracking Model**, which monitors industry fundamentals and identifies the top-performing industries based on their sentiment and activity levels. The model highlights transportation, food & beverage, and coal as the industries with the highest sentiment, while media, communication, and banking show lower sentiment levels[3][8][9] - The **Crowding Factor** is introduced to measure the disparity between leading and lagging stocks within an industry across three dimensions: volatility, liquidity, and systemic risk. Higher crowding factors indicate elevated risks such as high volatility, active trading turnover, or increased beta exposure. For example, the food & beverage industry shows historically high crowding factors, while industries like agriculture, pharmaceuticals, machinery, consumer services, and coal exhibit historically low crowding factors[3][17][18] - The **Crowding Factor** is calculated using metrics such as stock volatility, liquidity, and beta exposure. It reflects the degree of market concentration and trading activity within an industry. Higher values suggest speculative trading and heightened systemic risk, while lower values indicate reduced market activity and risk exposure[17][18][28] - The pharmaceutical industry demonstrates a divergence between sentiment and crowding factors, with sentiment decreasing by 0.06 and crowding factors increasing by 0.28. This is attributed to short-term policy benefits, event-driven catalysts, and market sentiment, despite the lack of comprehensive recovery in industry fundamentals[12][15][17] - The report emphasizes that industries with high crowding factors, such as food & beverage, may face risks of speculative trading and systemic volatility. Conversely, industries with low crowding factors, such as agriculture, pharmaceuticals, machinery, consumer services, and coal, may present opportunities for stable investment due to reduced speculative activity[17][18][28]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight (Maintain)" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the first revision of the "North Certificate Index Calculation and Maintenance Rules" by the Beijing Stock Exchange, aimed at enhancing market service levels [4][14] - The North Certificate 50 index will undergo sample stock adjustments effective June 16, 2025, with new entrants and removals from the index [7][14] - The report expresses optimism for the high-quality development of the Beijing Stock Exchange in 2025, suggesting a focus on specific sectors such as data centers, robotics, semiconductors, consumer goods, and military information technology [7][15] Summary by Sections 1. Revision of Index Rules - The revision of the index rules includes changes to the regular review data cutoff date and considerations for temporary adjustments during the announcement period [5][14] - Stocks that are long-term suspended but have a clear resumption expectation after the effective date will not be eligible for new sample inclusion [5][14] 2. Sample Stock Adjustments - New entrants to the North Certificate 50 index include Tonghui Electronics, Yinuowei, Weida Optoelectronics, Wanda Bearings, and Tongguan Mining [7][14] - Stocks removed from the index include Xingchen Technology, Kangle Guardian, Kaide Quartz, Tongxiang Technology, and Guangsha Environmental Energy [7][14] 3. Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on sectors such as: - Data Centers: Kelaite and Shuguang Data Creation - Robotics: Suzhou Axis, Audiwei, Jun Chuang Technology, and Fuheng New Materials - Semiconductors: Hualing Co. and Kaide Quartz - Consumer Goods: Taihu Snow, Boshenglong, Lusi Co., and Kangbiter - Military Information Technology: Chengdian Guangxin and Xingtuzhihui [7][15]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 925 million yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 317.8 million yuan, up 2.5% year-on-year [5] - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 1,033 million yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 11.6%, and a net profit of 351.9 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 10.7% [5] - The company maintains a strong market position with over 80% market share in the domestic allergy treatment sector, and its product pipeline continues to expand [5] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 95.16% and a stable expense ratio, with sales expense ratio at 39.06% [5] - The company’s R&D expenses for 2024 were 120 million yuan, accounting for 12.95% of revenue [5] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected to be 0.61 yuan, with a P/E ratio of 34.5 [3][5] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The forecasted revenues for 2025-2027 are 1,033 million yuan, 1,171 million yuan, and 1,354 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 11.6%, 13.3%, and 15.7% [5] - The net profit forecast for the same period is 351.9 million yuan, 394.0 million yuan, and 450.2 million yuan, with growth rates of 10.7%, 12.0%, and 14.3% [5] Product Pipeline and Market Expansion - The company has successfully expanded its product matrix, with new products such as "Skin Prick Test Solutions" receiving approval for market entry [5] - The company is actively promoting its products in northern markets, leading to significant sales increases, particularly for the Dust Mite Drops and Artemisia Pollen Drops [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current market is at a critical juncture with intertwined domestic and foreign policy variables, which will have complex impacts on the market. The core framework of high - quality development may be continuously strengthened, and the reform of public funds may reshape the industry ecosystem. Although there are some risks overseas, they are generally controllable in the medium term. The report maintains the "high - low switch" view and is relatively optimistic about the technology sector [5][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Observation - **Market Deduction under Intertwined Disturbances**: Domestically, the "15th Five - Year Plan" sets the tone, and the reform of public funds may reshape the market. Overseas, there are intensified tariff games between the US and Europe, and increased policy uncertainty in the US. The US - EU may reach a trade agreement this year, and the risk of a "black swan" event in US stocks and bonds is limited. The US International Trade Court has blocked the "reciprocal tariff" from taking effect, but Trump may bypass the ruling [5][6]. - **Investment Suggestions**: Maintain the "high - low switch" view. Build a bottom - position portfolio with stable assets such as dividends, gold, long - term bonds, and weighted stocks. Pay attention to the opportunities of safety - related assets and technology stocks for bottom - fishing. The high - prosperity of AI upstream computing power and servers will continue, and there will be opportunities in the domestic substitution direction of semiconductors [6]. Market Review - **Market Performance**: Most major market indices declined last week, with the ChiNext 50 having the largest decline of - 2.10%. Among the major industries, the healthcare and telecommunications service indices performed relatively well, while the optional consumption and materials indices performed weakly. Among the 30 Shenwan primary industries, 18 industries rose, with environmental protection, pharmaceutical biology, and national defense and military industry having relatively large increases, and the automobile, power equipment, and non - ferrous metals industries having relatively large declines [9][10][18]. - **Trading Heat**: The average daily trading volume of the Wind All - A Index last week was 1093.905 billion yuan, down from the previous value, but still at a relatively high historical level (70.50% of the three - year historical quantile) [23]. - **Valuation Tracking**: As of May 30, 2025, the valuation (PE_TTM) of the Wind All - A Index was 18.94, a decrease of - 0.01 from the previous week, and it was at the 64.90% quantile of the past five - year history. Among the 30 Shenwan primary industries, 17 industries' valuations (PE_TTM) recovered [29]. Economic Calendar - The report mentions paying attention to global economic data, but specific data are not provided [31]

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the REITs industry [2] Core Insights - The REITs index experienced a slight increase of 0.03% this week, contrasting with a 1.08% decline in the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index [4][13] - The total market capitalization of the REITs industry is approximately 198.2 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of about 92.0 billion yuan [2] - Recent approvals include two new REIT projects: Zhongyin Zhongwaiyun Warehousing Logistics REIT and Guotai Junan Lingang Innovation Manufacturing Industrial Park REIT [6][9] - The trading volume for REITs decreased by 20.2% this week, totaling 2.38 billion yuan, with an average daily turnover rate of 0.5% [40] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The REITs index rose by 0.03%, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell by 1.08% [13] - 28 REITs saw price increases, 0 remained stable, and 38 experienced declines, with the largest gain being 5.07% for the招商高速 REIT and the largest loss being 4.22% for the 华夏合肥高新 REIT [17] Trading Activity - The trading activity for REITs decreased, with a total trading amount of 2.38 billion yuan, down 20.2% from the previous week [40] - Specific sectors such as highways and ecological protection saw significant declines in trading volumes, with highway REITs trading at 600 million yuan, down 23.0% [40] Project Approvals and Announcements - Recent approvals include the Zhongyin Zhongwaiyun Warehousing Logistics REIT and the Guotai Junan Lingang Innovation Manufacturing Industrial Park REIT [6][9] - Several REITs announced dividend distributions, including 华夏合肥高新产园 REIT and 中航易商仓储物流 REIT [9][12] Valuation Situation - The estimated yield for various REITs ranges from -1.95% to 10.80%, with the highest yield observed in 华夏中国交建 REIT at 10.80% [42] - The P/NAV ratio for REITs varies between 0.75 and 1.79, indicating differing valuation levels across the sector [42]

Email：chenxr@zts.com.cn REITs 指数高位横盘，两单新项目获批 -公募 REITs 行业周报 20250602 评级：无评级 分析师：陈希瑞 执业证书编号：S0740524070002 | 基本状况 | | | --- | --- | | 上市公司数 | 66 | | 行业总市值(亿元) | 1982.07 | | 行业流通市值(亿元) | 920.38 | 相关报告 1、《热度延续，华泰苏州恒泰 REIT 上市涨停》2025-05-25 2、《华泰苏州恒泰 REIT 下周上市， 创 金 合 信 电 子 城 REIT 申 报 》 2025-05-18 3、《证监会：抓紧研究制定《公开 募集不动产投资基金监督管理暂行办 法》》2025-05-11 REITs 证券研究报告/行业定期报告 2025 年 06 月 02 日 报告摘要 本周行情回顾： 本周 REITs 指数上涨 0.03%，沪深 300 累计下跌 1.08%，中证 500 指数上涨 0.32%， 中证全债指数下跌 0.01%，中债 1 年期国债指数上涨 0.02%，中债 10 年期国债指数 下跌 0.26%，中证转债指数上涨 ...