【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】策略徐驰：美股后续风险将如何演绎？ 证券研究报告/晨会聚焦 2025 年 03 月 11 日 分析师：戴志锋 执业证书编号：S0740517030004 Email：daizf@zts.com.cn 欢迎关注中泰研究所订阅号 晨报内容回顾 1、《【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】计算 机闻学臣：机器人系列报告一：具身 智能——决定机器人泛化能力天花板 的"大小脑"》2025-03-10 2、《【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】有色 谢鸿鹤：全球铜资源"Copper20"跟 踪系列：Codelco 智利国家铜业公 司》2025-03-09 3、《【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】政策 杨畅：科技为矛、总量为盾，不惧外 扰、做强自身——2025 年政府工作报 告学习解读》2025-03-06 今日预览 今日重点>> 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 【策略】徐驰：美股后续风险将如何演绎？ 美股自今年 2 月中旬以来持续回调，标普 500 指数距离高点回撤超过 8%，纳斯达克回撤超过 10%， 且纳指 3 月 10 日单日跌幅达到 4%。我们近期密集提示：美股中大级别调整风险，过去两周如期 演绎。这里仅将本轮美股暴跌的"与众不同 ...

三生制药（01530.HK） 证券研究报告/公司研究简报 2025 年 03 月 10 日 生物制品 | 买入（首次） 评级： | 公司盈利预测及估值 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | | 营业收入（百万元） | 6,869 | 7,836 | 8,916 | 9,890 | 11,052 | | 分析师：祝嘉琦 | 增长率 yoy% | 7% | 14% | 14% | 11% | 12% | | 执业证书编号：S0740519040001 | 归母净利润（百万元） | 1,915 | 1,549 | 2,044 | 2,280 | 2,562 | | Email：zhujq@zts.com.cn | 增长率 yoy% | 16% | -19% | 32% | 12% | 12% | | | 每股收益（元） | 0.80 | 0.65 | 0.85 | 0.95 | 1.07 | | 分析师：曹泽运 | 每股现金流量 | 0.91 ...

IT 服务Ⅱ 执业证书编号：S0740519050004 Email：fengsheng@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740524060001 Email：songhq01@zts.com.cn | 基本状况 | | | --- | --- | | 总股本(百万股) | 114.13 | | 流通股本(百万股) | 26.13 | | 市价(元) | 126.20 | | 市值(百万元) | 14,402.58 | | 流通市值(百万元) | 3,296.97 | 速》2025-02-19 公司点评报告 | 盈利预测表 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 资产负债表 | | | 单位:百万元 | | 利润表 | | | 单位:百万元 | | | 会计年度 | 2024A | 2025E 2026E | 2027E | | 会计年度 | 2024A | 2025E 2026E | 2027E | | | 货币资金 | 261 | 284 | 319 | 373 | 营业 ...

煤价短期有望企稳,逐步配置超跌确定性资 煤炭 增持 (维持) 评级: 分析师: 杜冲 执业证书编号: S0740522040001 Email: duchong@zts.com.cn 联系人: 鲁昊 Email: luhao@zts.com.cn 基本状况 上市公司数 行业总市值(亿元) 16,725.90 行业流通市值(亿元) 16,335.31 行业-市场走势对比 相关报告 《供需走弱价格寻底,把握龙头 1、 配置机遇》2025-03-02 2、《煤炭价格弱势运行,龙头白马 逐步配置》2025-02-23 3、《煤企复工复产较快,煤价短期 承压下行》2025-02-16 | 重点公司基本状况 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 简称 | 股价 | | | EPS | | | | | PE | | | 戏 | | | (元) | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | 2022A | 202 ...

煤炭开采 执业证书编号：S0740522040001 Email：duchong@zts.com.cn Email：luhao@zts.com.cn | 总股本(百万股) | 2,590.54 | | --- | --- | | 流通股本(百万股) | 2,590.54 | | 市价(元) | 6.44 | | 市值(百万元) | 16,683.09 | | 流通市值(百万元) | 16,683.09 | 相关报告 持彰显信心》2025-01-09 2、《利辛电厂二期投运，火电业务 有望持续高增》2024-11-02 3、《※【中泰煤炭】新集能源深度 报告：煤电一体盈利稳增，稀缺成长 央企标的》2024-08-14 新集能源（601918.SH） 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2025 年 03 月 10 日 | 评级： | 买入（上调） | 公司盈利预测及估值 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 | | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | | 2025E | 2 ...

评级:无评级 分析师：由子沛 发改委: 推动基础设施 REITs 扩围扩容 房地产 证券研究报告/行业定期报告 2025 年 03 月 09 日 执业证书编号: S0740523020005 Email: youzp@zts.com.cn 分析师:陈希瑞 执业证书编号：S0740524070002 Email: chenxr@zts.com.cn 分析师:李垚 执业证书编号: S0740520110003 Email: liyao01@zts.com.cn 分析师:侯希得 执业证书编号: S0740523080001 Email: houxd@zts.com.cn | | | 本周行情回顾: 本周 REITs 指数上涨 1.19%,沪深 300 累计上涨 1.39%,中证 500 指数上涨 2.63%, 中证全债指数下跌 0.42%，中债 1 年期国债指数上涨 0.01%，中债 10 年期国债指 数下跌 0.51%，中证转债指数上涨 1.39%。上市以来 REITs 与十年期国债、一年期 国债、中证转债相关性分别为-0.18、-0.29、0.60，与沪深 300、中证 500 相关性 分别为 0.29、0.3 ...

美股后续风险将如何演绎？ | 证券研究报告/策略事件点评报告 | 2025 | 年 | 03 | 月 | 11 | 日 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告摘要 | 分析师：徐驰 | 美股自今年 | 月中旬以来持续回调，标普 | 指数距离高点回撤超过 | 8%，纳斯达克 |  | 2 | 500 | | | 执业证书编号：S0740519080003 | 回撤超过 | 10%，且纳指 | 月 | 日单日跌幅达到 | 4%。我们近期密集提示：美股中大 | 3 | 10 | 级别调整风险，过去两周如期演绎。这里仅将本轮美股暴跌的"与众不同"的要点列 | Email：xuchi@zts.com.cn | | 出： | 相关报告 | | | | | | | | | | 本轮全球资本市场交易的核心是抛弃"美国资产"，而非简单的"东升西降"："美元 |  | 1、《两会资本市场新政将带来哪些影 | 弱、美股崩、通胀起、经济弱、黄金强、非美资产强"这一交易的本质，在于特朗普 | | | | | | | | 响 ...

美国劳动力市场的降温迹象 ——点评 2025 年 2 月非农就业数据 分析师：杨畅 执业证书编号：S0740519090004 Email：yangchang@zts.com.cn 分析师：夏知非 执业证书编号：S0740523110007 Email：xiazf01@zts.com.cn 证券研究报告/宏观事件点评报告 2025 年 03 月 07 日 报告摘要 事件：美国 2 月新增非农就业 15.1 万人（前值下修至 12.5 万人），失业率升至 4.1% （前值 4.0%），平均时薪环比增速降至 0.28%（前值 0.42%）。 图表 1 ：美国新增非农就业人数 来源：WIND，中泰证券研究所 主要观点： 美国 2 月新增就业较前值上升但仍有中期放缓趋势，加之失业率上升、时薪增速下降， 劳动力市场显现一定的降温迹象。向前看，政府裁员的影响值得关注，2 月联邦政府 就业下降 1.0 万人（前值增长 0.5 万人），负面影响已初步显现。假设 2025 年联邦政 府裁员 20 万人转为失业人口，将逐步推升失业率 0.12 个百分点左右。 相关报告 从美联储来看，近期伴随着特朗普关税政策的激进倾向及其强不确定 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on the embodied intelligence industry, highlighting its potential as a ceiling for robot development, and recommends investors to pay attention to technological breakthroughs and commercialization progress in this sector [3]. Core Insights - Embodied intelligence is defined as an intelligent system based on physical bodies that perceives and acts through interaction with the environment, leading to intelligent behavior and adaptability [2][8]. - The development of embodied intelligence represents a convergence of robotics and artificial intelligence, with the potential to unlock significant market opportunities, projected to reach trillions in the future [2][3]. - The report identifies two main types of embodied large models: end-to-end models and layered embodied models, with the latter currently being more prevalent due to data limitations [2][3]. Summary by Sections What is Embodied Intelligence - Embodied intelligence emphasizes intelligent agents with physical bodies interacting with the environment to gain intelligence [8]. - The application of embodied intelligence in robotics can be divided into three stages: perception, reasoning, and execution [2][8]. Embodied Intelligence: Intersection of Robotics and AI - The generality of robots depends on the development of their generalization capabilities, which has evolved from simple automation to more complex, general-purpose robots [21][22]. - The report discusses the historical evolution of robotics from automation tools to intelligent agents that can directly impact the physical world [24]. Future of Humanoid Robots - The humanoid robot industry is expected to transition from specialized to general-purpose applications, with a significant focus on commercial viability in industrial manufacturing [2][3]. - The report highlights the anticipated investment boom in embodied intelligence, driven by advancements in AI and robotics [31][34]. Embodied Large Models Empowering Humanoid Robots - The report distinguishes between disembodied models and embodied large models, with the latter capable of generating motion postures linked to physical robots [37]. - It discusses the advantages and challenges of end-to-end models and layered models in the context of embodied intelligence [40][50]. Data Accumulation Methods for Robotics - The report outlines four primary methods for accumulating training data for robots: remote operation, AR, simulation, and video learning, emphasizing the current data scarcity in the robotics field [60][64][70].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the industry, indicating an expected increase of over 10% relative to the benchmark index in the next 6 to 12 months [3][9]. Core Insights - The Beijing Municipal Education Commission has released a plan to advance artificial intelligence education in primary and secondary schools from 2025 to 2027, aiming to establish a distinctive AI education system [6]. - The plan includes the development of a curriculum that integrates AI education into various subjects and encourages the use of external resources such as AI laboratories and experience centers [6]. - The report anticipates a growing demand for AI-related educational content and services, benefiting publishing companies that can adapt their offerings to include AI-focused materials and after-school programs [6]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The total number of listed companies in the industry is 131, with a total market value of 1,572.50 billion and a circulating market value of 1,429.90 billion [3]. Key Companies - Notable companies mentioned include: - **Wangxin Media**: Focused on scientific visualization and AI education resources [6]. - **Southern Media**: Engaged in educational technology through partnerships [8]. - **Urban Media**: Publishes AI-related educational materials [8]. - Other companies to watch include Dou Shen Education, Century Tianhong, and Xinhua Wenxuan [8]. Market Trends - The report highlights a trend towards integrating AI into educational practices, with an emphasis on enhancing the curriculum and expanding educational resources [6].