各地新政稳楼市，一手房成交量环比上升 ——20250530 房地产行业周报 房地产 证券研究报告/行业定期报告 2025 年 06 月 01 日 | 评级： | 增持（维持） | 重点公司基本状况 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 股价 | | | EPS | | | | | PE | | | | 分析师：由子沛 | | 简称 | (元) | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027 | | 执业证书编号：S0740523020005 | | | | | | | | | | | | | E | | Email：youzp@zts.com.cn | | 保利发展 | 8.13 | 1.01 | 0.42 | 0.46 | 0.51 | 0.54 | 8.0 | 19.4 | 17.7 | 15.9 | 15.1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal industry [2][5]. Core Views - The coal market is experiencing a recovery in demand, leading to a rebound in pithead coal prices. As of May 30, 2025, pithead prices for various coal types have increased significantly due to improved demand expectations and a slight contraction in supply [7][8]. - The report highlights the upcoming peak electricity demand season and the easing of tariff issues, which are expected to support coal demand. Additionally, the reduction in coal imports is anticipated to alleviate oversupply pressures [7][8]. - The report suggests that high-dividend, low-valuation coal stocks remain attractive for investment, with recommendations for specific companies such as China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal and Energy [8]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The coal industry consists of 37 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 17,587.15 billion CNY and a circulating market value of 17,200.33 billion CNY [2][5]. 2. Coal Price Tracking - As of May 30, 2025, the pithead price for weakly caking coal in Datong is 476.0 CNY/ton, up 32.0 CNY/ton from the previous week, marking a 7.2% increase. The price for Yulin's coking coal is 490.0 CNY/ton, up 90.0 CNY/ton, a 22.5% increase [7]. - The report notes that the average daily coal consumption across 25 provinces is 451.70 million tons, a decrease of 10.36% week-on-week [8]. 3. Company Performance Tracking - Key companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and Yancoal are highlighted for their operational performance, with specific metrics on coal production and sales [14][15]. - The report tracks the production levels and sales volumes of major coal companies, indicating a mixed performance across the sector [15]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies with integrated operations and strong dividend policies, such as China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal, as well as companies like Xinji Energy and Huaihe Energy that are involved in coal-electricity integration [8][13]. - It also suggests that undervalued stocks, particularly those with significant market capitalization management potential, are worth considering for investment [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the transportation sector, with specific buy recommendations for several airlines and logistics companies [2][3]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the ongoing recovery in the aviation sector, driven by increasing passenger demand and favorable pricing dynamics, particularly during the peak travel season [4][5]. - The logistics and express delivery sectors are expected to undergo significant transformation due to advancements in autonomous vehicle technology, which could enhance operational efficiency and service delivery [5][6]. Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - The report highlights the strong performance of airlines such as Spring Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, and China Southern Airlines, which are expected to benefit from rising passenger volumes and improved load factors [2][11]. - The logistics sector is seeing a surge in express delivery volumes, with a reported 41.47 billion packages collected in the week of May 19-25, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 15.42% [5][6]. Operational Tracking - The report provides detailed operational metrics for major airlines, indicating a positive trend in available seat kilometers (ASK) and revenue passenger kilometers (RPK) across the sector, with notable increases in passenger load factors [4][14]. - The logistics sector's performance is also tracked, showing a significant increase in both collection and delivery volumes, which are expected to continue growing due to favorable consumption policies [5][6]. Airline Data Tracking - Specific airlines are highlighted for their operational efficiency and market positioning, with metrics showing improvements in ASK and RPK, alongside rising load factors, indicating a robust recovery trajectory [4][14]. - The report notes that the average load factor for major airlines is above 80%, suggesting strong demand and effective capacity management [4][14]. Shipping Data Tracking - The report indicates a rise in shipping rates, with the SCFI index reaching 2072.71 points, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 30.68% [5][6]. - The report anticipates a seasonal increase in shipping demand, driven by factors such as replenishment needs and peak shipping seasons, which could lead to further price increases [5][6]. Logistics Data Tracking - The report tracks logistics performance, noting a significant increase in freight volumes across various transport modes, including road and rail, with a cumulative freight volume of 2.71 billion tons reported [5][6]. - The express delivery sector is highlighted for its resilience, with ongoing growth in package volumes supported by government consumption-boosting policies [5][6].

Group 1: Event Overview - The U.S. International Trade Court blocked President Trump's tariff policy announced on April 2, ruling that he overstepped his authority[9] - The court stated that the U.S. Constitution grants Congress exclusive power to regulate trade with other nations, and the President's emergency powers do not override this authority[9] Group 2: Market Reaction - Following the court's ruling, U.S. stock futures rose significantly, leading to a positive opening for A-shares on May 29[5] - Despite the initial market optimism, analysts caution against excessive optimism regarding the long-term impact of the ruling[5] Group 3: Legal and Political Context - Historically, U.S. district courts have limited power to block executive orders, and the federal government can appeal or delay enforcement of court rulings[10] - The recent passage of the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" in the House, with a narrow margin of 215 to 214 votes, reflects challenges to the U.S. constitutional system of checks and balances[17] Group 4: Investment Strategy - The current investment strategy maintains a "high-low switch" perspective, favoring technology stocks while advising against chasing high valuations in new consumer sectors[18] - Investors are encouraged to position themselves in safe assets (gold, bonds, military, nuclear, rare earths) and technology stocks during market fluctuations[18] Group 5: Risk Factors - Risks include potential delays in domestic industrial policy implementation and increased uncertainty surrounding Trump's "reciprocal tariffs" policy[21] - There is a possibility of tighter liquidity in overseas markets, which could impact investment strategies[21]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Insights - The company has shown significant improvement in profitability from lithium battery structural components and has a promising outlook for its robotics business [4][6]. - The company has established a solid foundation in precision manufacturing and is expanding into the emerging field of humanoid robotics, with successful product testing and small-scale deliveries [4][6][58]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, Zhenyu Technology, started as a precision mold manufacturer and has evolved to focus on precision lithium battery structural components and electric motor cores, while also venturing into humanoid robotics [4][19]. - The company was listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in 2021 and has been expanding its business since then, including the establishment of a subsidiary for robotics in 2024 [4][6]. Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported revenue of 6,019 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.63%, but a net profit of 43 million yuan, down 58.73% year-on-year due to various operational challenges [4][23]. - The company expects significant revenue growth in the coming years, with projected revenues of 91.14 billion yuan in 2025, 114.54 billion yuan in 2026, and 140.51 billion yuan in 2027 [12][25]. Market Position and Growth - The company has maintained a stable market share in the lithium battery structural component sector, with revenues from this segment increasing from 23.7 billion yuan in 2021 to 57.5 billion yuan in 2024 [7][43]. - The global market for lithium battery structural components is projected to grow significantly, with estimates of 557.4 billion yuan by 2025 [42]. Robotics Business Development - The company has made strides in the robotics sector, establishing a subsidiary and developing key components such as planetary roller screws and linear actuators, with successful testing and initial deliveries to clients [58][63]. - The humanoid robotics market is expected to grow substantially, with projections indicating a market size of 642.22 billion yuan by 2030 [54][56].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Insights - The company has shown significant improvement in profitability from lithium battery structural components and has a promising outlook for its robotics business [4][6]. - The company has established a solid foundation in precision manufacturing and is expanding into the emerging field of humanoid robotics, with successful product testing and small-scale deliveries [4][6][58]. Summary by Relevant Sections Company Overview - The company, Zhenyu Technology, started as a precision mold manufacturer and has evolved to focus on precision lithium battery structural components and electric motor cores, while also venturing into humanoid robotics [4][19]. - The company was listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in 2021 and has been actively expanding its business since then [4][19]. Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported revenue of 6,019 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.63%, but a net profit of 43 million yuan, down 58.73% year-on-year due to various operational challenges [4][25]. - The company expects significant revenue growth in the coming years, with projected revenues of 9,114 million yuan in 2025, 11,454 million yuan in 2026, and 14,051 million yuan in 2027 [1][12]. Market Position and Growth - The company has maintained a stable market share in the lithium battery structural component sector, with revenue from this segment increasing from 23.7 billion yuan in 2021 to 57.5 billion yuan in 2024 [7][43]. - The global market for lithium battery structural components is projected to grow significantly, with estimates of 557.4 billion yuan by 2025 [42][43]. Robotics Business Development - The company established a wholly-owned subsidiary, Martin Robotics, in 2024 to focus on the robotics sector, achieving breakthroughs in actuator transmission modules and drive modules [4][58]. - The humanoid robotics market is expected to grow substantially, with projections indicating a market size of 642.22 billion yuan by 2030 [54][56]. Profitability and Valuation - The company anticipates a rebound in profitability, with net profits expected to reach 4.09 billion yuan in 2025, corresponding to a PE ratio of 32 times, which is above the average for comparable companies [4][12]. - The report highlights the company's ongoing efforts to improve cost efficiency and maintain competitive pricing in the face of market challenges [11][31].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [5][12][50]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a decline in downstream processing operating rates and emphasizes the need to monitor demand trends [5][50]. - The report indicates that the basic metals prices are showing a recovery trend due to the easing of tariffs between China and the US, despite short-term fluctuations [5][12]. - The overall economic momentum is showing signs of a turning point, with various macroeconomic factors influencing the industry [12][32]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The report notes that the A-share market has seen an overall decline, but the non-ferrous metals sector has outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.83 percentage points [15][19]. - The basic metal prices have shown mixed performance, with LME copper up by 1.8% and aluminum down by 0.6% [22][23]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - For electrolytic aluminum, the operating capacity has increased by 20,000 tons, with production reaching 841,300 tons, a slight increase of 0.05% [5][51]. - The average operating rate for aluminum processing enterprises has slightly decreased to 61.4%, with variations across different products [5][53]. - The report indicates a slight decrease in domestic aluminum ingot inventory to 605,000 tons, down by 41,000 tons [5][53]. Profitability and Cost Analysis - The industry maintains a profit margin of over 3,000 CNY per ton, with the current aluminum price at 20,400 CNY per ton, reflecting a 0.84% increase [5][53]. - The report highlights that the cash cost for the industry is 16,998 CNY per ton, with a total cost of 18,207 CNY per ton, resulting in a profit of 3,405 CNY per ton [5][53]. Macroeconomic Factors - The report summarizes that the industrial added value in China has shown a year-on-year increase of 6.1% in April, with the non-ferrous metal mining sector growing by 6.6% [32]. - The US manufacturing sector is also affected by tariffs, with the ISM manufacturing PMI at 48.7, indicating contraction [34]. - The European economic sentiment index has improved significantly, indicating a potential recovery in the region [42]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests maintaining an "Overweight" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for future investments [5][12][50].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the light industry manufacturing sector [4]. Core Insights - 52Toys has submitted its prospectus for an IPO in Hong Kong, highlighting opportunities in the pan-toy sector. The company achieved revenues of CNY 460 million, CNY 482 million, and CNY 630 million from 2022 to 2024, with licensed IP products contributing nearly 40% of total revenue during this period [6][20]. - The light industry manufacturing index ranked 6th among 28 Shenwan industries, with a weekly increase of 0.73%. The textile and apparel index ranked 10th, with a slight decline of 0.11% [11]. - The report emphasizes the growth potential in domestic consumption, particularly in the new consumer sector, and suggests focusing on companies like Baiya, Runben, and Haoyue Care, which have shown significant revenue growth [6]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The total market capitalization of the light industry manufacturing sector is CNY 931.32 billion, with a circulating market value of CNY 790.67 billion [2]. - The report notes a mixed performance in sub-sectors, with packaging and printing up by 2.09% and paper up by 1.74%, while home goods and entertainment products saw declines [6][11]. Key Company Updates - 52Toys is positioned well within the youth-oriented emotional value market, with a growing customer base and a strong IP portfolio [6][20]. - The report highlights the performance of major companies, including Baiya, Taihua New Materials, and Huali Group, all rated as "Buy" with projected earnings growth [4]. Consumer Trends - The report identifies a trend towards new domestic consumption, particularly in the apparel and home goods sectors, with companies like Hailan Home and Anta Sports being highlighted for their growth potential [6][7]. - The textile manufacturing sector is expected to benefit from recent tariff policy changes, creating a 90-day window for increased export orders [6]. Raw Material Prices - The report tracks fluctuations in raw material prices, noting increases in polyether and TDI prices, while MDI prices have decreased [21][26]. - Cotton prices have shown a slight increase, indicating potential impacts on the textile sector [26]. Sales Data - Recent data indicates a significant increase in property sales in major cities, with a 12.6% year-on-year increase in transaction volume [40]. - The furniture manufacturing sector reported a revenue of CNY 145.98 billion in the first quarter of 2025, reflecting a 2.2% year-on-year decline [60].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the industry, indicating an expected increase in performance relative to the benchmark index over the next 6 to 12 months [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights the recent joint issuance of measures by multiple ministries to support the development of small and micro enterprises, which is expected to enhance financing conditions and promote equity financing for these businesses [5][27]. - The overall performance of the North Exchange (北交所) is projected to improve in 2025, with a focus on high-quality development and specific sectors such as data centers, robotics, semiconductors, consumer goods, and military information technology [28]. Summary by Sections North Exchange Overview - As of May 23, 2025, there are 266 constituent stocks in the North Exchange, with an average market capitalization of 2.936 billion [4][8]. - The North Exchange 50 Index experienced a decline of 3.21%, closing at 1370.04 points, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index, ChiNext Index, and Sci-Tech 50 Index saw declines of 0.64%, 1.06%, and 2.04% respectively [4][8]. - The trading volume for the week was 179.74 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, with a weekly turnover rate of 45.6% [4][12]. Industry Performance - The top five performing sectors in the A-share market for the week were automotive, pharmaceutical and biotechnology, comprehensive, non-ferrous metals, and home appliances, with respective gains of 3.17%, 2.46%, 2.19%, 1.25%, and 1.10% [18]. Individual Stock Performance - Among the 266 stocks listed on the North Exchange, 42 stocks increased in value, while 224 stocks decreased, resulting in an increase ratio of 16% [21]. New Stocks on the North Exchange - Six companies updated their review status to "inquired," while two companies were classified as "accepted," and one company submitted for registration during the week of May 19 to May 23, 2025 [24][25]. Key Announcements - The report emphasizes the issuance of measures to support small and micro enterprises, aiming to improve their financing conditions and encourage equity financing [27]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on specific sectors for investment in 2025, including data centers, robotics, semiconductors, consumer goods, and military information technology, highlighting key companies within these sectors [28].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][9] Core Views - The strategic restructuring between Haiguang Information and Zhongke Shuguang aims to achieve collaborative development across the entire chain of domestic chips, servers, and cloud computing [7] - Haiguang Information is a leading domestic CPU and GPU enterprise with core chip design capabilities, focusing on domestic architecture CPUs and DCUs, benefiting from the growth in intelligent computing demand and opportunities for domestic computing power substitution [7] - The merger is expected to create a comprehensive solution capability integrating domestic chips and server systems, enhancing the competitive edge and driving the development of high-performance computing infrastructure [7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for Haiguang Information are as follows: - 2023A: 6,012 million - 2024A: 9,162 million (growth rate: 52%) - 2025E: 13,530 million (growth rate: 48%) - 2026E: 18,802 million (growth rate: 39%) - 2027E: 24,443 million (growth rate: 30%) [2] - Net profit projections are as follows: - 2023A: 1,263 million - 2024A: 1,931 million (growth rate: 53%) - 2025E: 3,063 million (growth rate: 59%) - 2026E: 4,393 million (growth rate: 43%) - 2027E: 5,932 million (growth rate: 35%) [2] - Earnings per share (EPS) projections: - 2023A: 0.54 - 2024A: 0.83 - 2025E: 1.32 - 2026E: 1.89 - 2027E: 2.55 [2] Market Position and Strategy - The restructuring is the first absorption merger transaction following the revision of the regulations on major asset restructuring by the China Securities Regulatory Commission, which encourages the injection of quality assets to enhance investment value [7] - Zhongke Shuguang is a leader in server assembly and has a comprehensive layout in the AI infrastructure sector, covering upstream chip/server hardware, midstream cloud computing, and downstream cloud services [7] - The strategic merger is expected to enhance resource sharing in R&D, supply chain, and market sales, accelerating the development of high-end chips and integrated technology solutions [7]