百洋医药（301015.SZ） 医药商业 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2024 年 10 月 28 日 业绩符合预期，品牌运营稳健发展 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

报告摘要 事件：公司发布 2024 年三季报： 1）前三季度：收入 189.1 亿元，同比+25.4%；归母净利润 23.8 亿元，同比+544.7%； 扣非归母净利润 22.9 亿元，同比+1665.8%。毛利率 29.6%，同比+8.3pct；净利率 12.5%，同比+10.1pct。 2）24Q3：收入 68.2 亿元，同比+9.6%，环比+5.7%；归母净利润 10.1 亿元，同比 +368.3%，环比+24.6%；扣非归母净利润 9.2 亿元，同比+341.0%，环比+14.3%。 毛利率 30.4%，同比+8.7pct，环比+0.2pct；净利率 14.8%，同比+11.3pct，环比+2.2pct。 基本状况 总股本(百万股) 1,214.43 流通股本(百万股) 1,214.43 市价(元) 111.78 市值(百万元) 135,748.65 流通市值(百万元) 135,748.65 韦尔股份（603501.SH） 半导体 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2024 年 10 月 26 日 Q3 业绩继续高增，α增长持续兑现 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative performance increase of over 15% compared to the benchmark index within the next 6 to 12 months [2][8]. Core Insights - The company achieved a positive turnaround in Q3 2024, with revenue and profit exceeding market expectations, marking the first time both metrics turned positive after a decline [1]. - The company is expected to continue reducing its reliance on the metallurgical industry, with growth in sectors such as coal chemical and petrochemical [1]. - The forecasted net profit for 2024-2026 is projected at 1.167 billion, 1.367 billion, and 1.522 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 12.5, 10.7, and 9.6 [2]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue**: - 2022A: 10,766 million yuan - 2023A: 10,143 million yuan (down 6% YoY) - 2024E: 11,133 million yuan (up 10% YoY) - 2025E: 12,447 million yuan (up 12% YoY) - 2026E: 13,842 million yuan (up 11% YoY) [1][6] - **Net Profit**: - 2022A: 968 million yuan - 2023A: 1,020 million yuan (up 5% YoY) - 2024E: 1,167 million yuan (up 14% YoY) - 2025E: 1,367 million yuan (up 17% YoY) - 2026E: 1,522 million yuan (up 11% YoY) [1][6] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2022A: 0.56 yuan - 2023A: 0.59 yuan - 2024E: 0.68 yuan - 2025E: 0.79 yuan - 2026E: 0.88 yuan [1][6] - **Cash Flow**: - Operating cash flow for 2023A: 1,352 million yuan - Expected to be negative in 2024E at -3,375 million yuan [5][6]. Market Position and Growth Potential - The company has signed several overseas projects, indicating a successful expansion into international markets [2]. - The report highlights the company's strategic focus on enhancing its research and development capabilities, particularly in distributed energy and compressed air energy storage technologies [1][2].

特朗普交易的胜率与赔率 ——海外经济与政策周报 证券研究报告/宏观定期报告 2024 年 10 月 27 日 分析师：杨畅 执业证书编号：S0740519090004 Email：yangchang@zts.com.cn 分析师：夏知非 执业证书编号：S0740523110007 Email：xiazf01@zts.com.cn 相关报告 报告摘要 一周海外重要事件汇总： 中东：布林肯再度访问中东，卡塔尔举行停火会谈； 美国：大选提前投票人数较 2020 年回落；特朗普胜选概率仍高，在竞选活动中提及 "取消所得税"、"削减 50%能源账单"；褐皮书显示美国经济活动平稳；10 月制造业 PMI 边际改善，服务业仍强； 欧洲：欧元区制造业 PMI 低位上升；欧央行官员表态偏鸽； 日本：制造业、服务业 PMI 同步回落，日央行表态偏鸽，日元进一步贬值。 美国高频指标跟踪：周度经济现状波动向好，周度就业改善，生产情况分化，零售增 速上升，房地产购买需求回落，金融市场流动性风险较小。特朗普在全部战场州以较 小幅度领先。 全球资产表现：本周在特朗普胜选预期较强、美国经济仍稳、日欧央行相继放鸽的背 景下，美元指数续涨 0. ...

评级：无评级 分析师：由子沛 本周行情回顾： 本周 4 支 REITs 上涨，32 支下跌，整体下跌 0.60%，其中易方达广开产园 REIT 涨幅 最大为 1.19%，华夏和达高科 REIT 跌幅最大为 4.53%，同期沪深 300 上涨 0.79%， 中证 500 指数上涨 3.01%，中证全债指数下跌 0.25%，中债 1 年期国债指数上涨 0.04%，中债 10 年期国债指数下跌 0.33%，中证转债指数上涨 1.50%。 执业证书编号：S0740523020005 Email：youzp@zts.com.cn 分析师：陈希瑞 执业证书编号：S0740524070002 Email：chenxr@zts.com.cn 分析师：李垚 重点事件：1)华安张江 REIT 等共 41 支 REITs 发布 2024 年度 3 季报。2)招商基金蛇 口租赁住房 REIT 将于 10 月 23 日于深交所上市，上市无限售安排的份额为 1.3585 亿份，上市开盘参考价为 2.727 元/份，首日上张 7.15%。3)中金普洛斯 REIT 等 4 单 REITs 发布分红公告。4)红土创新深圳安居 REIT 等共 ...

北新建材（000786.SZ） 装修建材 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2024 年 10 月 28 日 主业基本盘稳固，两翼+国际化逆势高增 ——北新建材 2024 年三季报点评 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ...

Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Views - Performance meets expectations with continuous optimization of period expense ratio [1] - Revenue and profit slightly declined under high base, in line with expectations [2] - Sales expense ratio continues to optimize, net profit margin steadily increases [2] - BD progresses orderly, product matrix continues to enrich [3] - Core product competition remains stable, market share leads, laying a solid foundation for steady performance growth [3] Financial Performance Summary Revenue and Profit - 2024 Q3 revenue: RMB 1,771 million, down 7.18% YoY [2] - 2024 Q3 net profit attributable to parent company: RMB 565 million, down 6.58% YoY [2] - 2024 Q3 non-GAAP net profit: RMB 519 million, down 10.69% YoY [2] - 2024 Q1-Q3 revenue: RMB 5,805 million, down 11.19% YoY [2] - 2024 Q1-Q3 net profit attributable to parent company: RMB 1,903 million, down 2.13% YoY [2] - 2024 Q1-Q3 non-GAAP net profit: RMB 1,699 million, down 7.06% YoY [2] Profitability - 2024 Q1-Q3 gross margin: 79.26%, down 2.44pp YoY [2] - 2024 Q1-Q3 net profit margin: 32.78%, up 3.04pp YoY [2] - 2024 Q1-Q3 sales/management/financial expense ratios: 37.73%/10.30%/-3.54%, down 3.86pp, up 0.92pp, down 0.93pp YoY respectively [2] Forecast - 2024-2026 revenue forecast: RMB 9,183 million, RMB 10,004 million, RMB 10,772 million, with YoY growth of -5%, 9%, 8% respectively [3] - 2024-2026 net profit attributable to parent company forecast: RMB 2,709 million, RMB 3,030 million, RMB 3,270 million, with YoY growth of -4%, 12%, 8% respectively [3] Product Development - Strategic cooperation with Suzhou Yusen signed in July 2024 for innovative traditional Chinese medicine development in pediatric, respiratory, gynecological, and digestive fields [3] - 1 project entered clinical phase III, 2 projects entered pre-BE or BE stage by mid-year [3] - 4 new Chinese patent applications and 1 PCT international patent application submitted [3] - 1 Chinese patent and 1 European patent authorized [3] Financial Ratios - 2024E P/E: 10.4x [1] - 2024E P/B: 1.8x [1] - 2024E ROE: 17% [1] - 2024E EPS: RMB 2.94 [1] Market Data - Total shares: 921.70 million [2] - Market price: RMB 30.53 [2] - Market capitalization: RMB 28,139.63 million [2]

报告摘要 2024 年前 9 个月，全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总额 52281.6 亿元，累计同比下 降 3.5%（前 8 个月累计同比增长 0.5%）。 工业企业利润总额环比小幅增长，但受上年基数明显走高影响，大幅压低了同比增速， 根据累计同比增速折算上年基数后计算 9 月同比下降 27.0%，跌幅较上月扩大 9.3 个 百分点； 成本刚性仍然明显，根据累计数折算上年基数后，营业成本当月同比上涨 1.0%，剔 除掉价格之后同比增长 3.2%，较上月提高 2.4 个百分点，且高于营业收入增速； 应收账款压力仍在加大，9 月末应收票据及应收账款 25.72 万亿（前值 25.5 万亿）， 绝对值继续提高，环比增长 0.86%，剔除掉价格后环比增长 1.46%，压力仍在加大； 产成品微幅去库，产成品存货 6.47 万亿元（前值 6.53 万亿），绝对值回落，环比下 降 0.9%，剔除掉价格后环比下降 0.1%，微幅去库； 国企利润当月同比下降 36.3%，跌幅较上月扩大 18.4 个百分点；环比小幅回升，但 受上年基数明显走高影响，大幅压低了同比增速的表现，出现类似"裂口"； 外企利润同比下降 31.1%，跌幅 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][3]. Core Insights - The company's performance is in line with expectations, showing a continuous improvement trend. The revenue for Q3 2024 was 1.099 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.80%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 190 million yuan, an increase of 12.17% year-on-year [2][3]. - The company is expected to maintain a positive growth trajectory into 2025, driven by the release of new products and a recovery in demand for its raw materials [2][3]. - The company is positioned as a leading integrated player in the steroid hormone sector, with risks from centralized procurement gradually alleviating and new product launches anticipated [3][12]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: The company is projected to achieve revenues of 4.304 billion yuan in 2024, 4.784 billion yuan in 2025, and 5.454 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 4.38%, 11.15%, and 14.01% respectively [1][3]. - **Net Profit Forecast**: The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 678 million yuan in 2024, 821 million yuan in 2025, and 1.006 billion yuan in 2026, with growth rates of 20.49%, 21.05%, and 22.47% respectively [1][3]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: The EPS is projected to be 0.69 yuan in 2024, 0.83 yuan in 2025, and 1.02 yuan in 2026 [1][3]. - **Valuation Ratios**: The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 19.94 in 2024 to 11.16 in 2026, while the price-to-book (P/B) ratio is projected to decline from 1.94 to 1.49 over the same period [1][3]. Business Segment Performance - **Formulations**: The core product, mometasone furoate nasal spray, is experiencing rapid growth, and new products are being launched successfully [2][3]. - **Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients (APIs)**: The company is focusing on stabilizing prices and expanding into high-end markets for its APIs, with expectations of demand recovery [2][3]. - **Research and Development**: The company is increasing its R&D investment, which is expected to enhance its product pipeline and support future growth [2][3].

奥锐特（605116.SH） 化学制药 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2024 年 10 月 27 日 收入、利润稳健增长，司美格鲁肽放量在即 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...