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长期积累构筑领先优势,专注型龙头发展加速
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES· 2024-02-05 16:00
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the company Core Insights - The company is positioned to benefit from the high-end demand and recovery in the electronic-grade filler market, particularly in the fields of EMC and CCL applications [3][9][18] - The demand for packaging fillers is expected to reach 370,000 tons by 2025, driven by advanced packaging technologies [9][18] - The company focuses on electronic-grade fillers, aiming for high-quality growth through stable supply and long-term accumulation of competitive advantages [56] Summary by Sections Electronic-grade Fillers - Electronic-grade silicon micro-powder exhibits excellent performance, with EMC and CCL as the main downstream application areas [3] - The report highlights the importance of silicon micro-powder in epoxy molding compounds, where it can account for 60%-90% of the filler content, addressing critical issues like thermal expansion [9][10] Market Demand Projections - By 2025, the global demand for packaging fillers is projected to reach 370,000 tons, with advanced packaging driving the growth of mid-to-high-end fillers [9][18] - The demand for CCL fillers is expected to reach 270,000 tons by 2025, benefiting from the recovery in consumer electronics and downstream high-end applications [18][39] Product Performance and Cost Structure - The report discusses the cost structure of angular and spherical powders, noting that angular powders account for over 60% of raw material costs, while spherical powders are significantly influenced by natural gas prices [6][7] - Spherical silicon micro-powder is preferred for high-performance applications due to its superior properties, despite a higher price point compared to angular powders [7][14] Advanced Packaging Trends - The advanced packaging market is expected to account for 50% of the total packaging market by 2025, contributing significantly to market growth [17] - The report indicates that the demand for high-end packaging fillers, particularly for HBM applications, is projected to reach 980 tons by 2030 [24][29] Competitive Landscape - The high-end electronic filler market is characterized by high concentration, with leading Japanese companies dominating the global market share [46] - The company aims to enhance its overseas customer supply share, leveraging the rapid development of the domestic electronic industry and the growing demand for high-quality materials [52]
江丰电子:质量回报双提升,三大业务线持续增强竞争力
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES· 2024-02-04 16:00
江丰电子:质量回报双提升,三大业务线持续增强竞争力 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...
重组收益大幅增厚归母净利,部分地产项目拖累扣非业绩
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES· 2024-02-04 16:00
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 15% within the next 6 to 12 months compared to the benchmark index [5]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 11.8 to 14.2 billion yuan for 2023, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 88% to 126% [1][3]. - The significant increase in net profit is primarily attributed to the substantial reorganization gains from the acquisition of Meikailong, which added approximately 6.29 billion yuan to the net profit [1][3]. - However, the company's non-recurring net profit is projected to decline to 2.1 to 2.8 billion yuan, a decrease of about 24% to 43% year-on-year, mainly due to the impact of the real estate market and impairment provisions for certain projects [1][3]. Financial Performance Summary - The company's revenue is forecasted to grow from 832.81 billion yuan in 2022 to 1,014.72 billion yuan by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 11% [1][3]. - Net profit is expected to fluctuate, with a significant increase to 13.34 billion yuan in 2023, followed by a decrease to 6.68 billion yuan in 2024, and a recovery to 7.74 billion yuan in 2025 [1][3]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to rise from 2.09 yuan in 2022 to 2.58 yuan in 2025, reflecting the company's growth trajectory [1][3]. Business Segments - The supply chain business is anticipated to face short-term pressure on performance due to market fluctuations in commodity prices and a weak automotive sector, although market share is expected to continue growing [1][3]. - The real estate segment has shown positive sales growth, with total sales amounting to 564.9 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 14% [1][3]. Valuation Metrics - The report adjusts the company's valuation metrics, with the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio expected to be 4.7 for 2023, decreasing to 3.7 by 2025 [1][3]. - The price-to-book (P/B) ratio is projected to decline from 0.6 in 2023 to 0.3 in 2025, indicating a potential undervaluation of the company's stock [1][3].
扬杰科技:回购彰显发展信心,景气企稳业绩有望迎拐点
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES· 2024-02-04 16:00
扬杰科技:回购彰显发展信心,景气企稳业绩有望迎拐点 扬杰科技(300373.SZ)/电子 证券研究报告/公司点评 2024年2月5日 [Table_Industry] [评Ta级ble:_T买itle入] (维持) [公Ta司ble盈_F利in预anc测e1及] 估值 市场价格:34.31元/股 指标 2021A 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 营业收入(百万元) 4,397 5,404 5,540 6,936 8,327 分析师:王芳 增长率yoy% 68% 23% 3% 25% 20% 执业证书编号:S0740521120002 净利润(百万元) 768 1,060 900 1,100 1,500 Email:wangfang02@zts.com.cn 增长率yoy% 103% 38% -15% 22% 36% 每股收益(元) 1.41 1.95 1.66 2.03 2.76 分析师:杨旭 每股现金流量 1.32 1.47 -10.35 -0.45 0.42 执业证书编号:S0740521120001 净资产收益率 15% 17% 12% 13% 16% Email:yangxu01@zt ...
2023年亏损同比增大,受费用增加、营业外支出等影响
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES· 2024-02-04 16:00
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company is expected to report a net loss attributable to shareholders of 480 to 620 million yuan for 2023, a year-on-year decline of 512.3% to 374.0%. The non-recurring net profit is projected to be a loss of 280 to 380 million yuan, indicating a reduction in losses compared to the previous year [2][4] - The decline in profit is attributed to increased service fees for energy storage products, higher depreciation expenses, a significant drop in investment income, and increased non-operating expenses due to contract delivery issues [3][4] - Despite the projected losses, the company has seen an increase in overseas orders and expects improvement in the future, justifying the "Accumulate" rating [4] Financial Summary - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 4,425 million yuan in 2023 to 5,582 million yuan in 2024, and further to 6,815 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 25% and 26% respectively [11] - The net profit forecast for 2023 is a loss of 557 million yuan, with a recovery expected in 2024 with a profit of 108 million yuan and further growth to 307 million yuan in 2025 [11] - The company's cash flow from operating activities is expected to be negative in 2023 at -183 million yuan, with a recovery to 405 million yuan in 2024 and 665 million yuan in 2025 [11] Order and Capacity Expansion - Since Q4 2023, the company has secured over 900 MWh of new energy storage orders, with ongoing capacity expansion projects [13] - The company plans to invest up to 950 million yuan in a production base in the Pearl River Delta, which is expected to achieve a battery energy storage system (BESS) capacity of 14 GWh and a power conversion system (PCS) capacity of 5 GW [13]
晶科能源:全球光伏龙头,引领TOPCon技术发展
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES· 2024-02-04 16:00
Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [2]. Core Insights - JinkoSolar is a global leader in photovoltaic (PV) modules, with rapid growth in operating performance. The company has maintained its position as the top global PV module supplier, with cumulative shipments exceeding 210GW by the end of 2023 [6][10]. - The company is leading the development of TOPCon technology, which is becoming the mainstream technology in the industry, and is expected to enhance its competitive edge further [15][22]. - The report forecasts significant revenue and profit growth, with expected revenues of 113 billion yuan and net profits of 7.9 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 8% and 4% respectively [2][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Photovoltaic Integration Leader, Leading the N-Type Era - JinkoSolar has established itself as a leader in the PV industry with a vertically integrated business model covering silicon wafers, cells, and modules. The company has been a pioneer in scaling up TOPCon cell production [6][8]. - The company achieved the highest global shipment of N-type modules, with expectations to reach 70-75GW in 2023 [6][10]. 2. The Arrival of the N-Type Era, Accelerating TOPCon Iteration - The global demand for renewable energy is increasing, with solar power expected to benefit significantly from this trend. BNEF predicts that global module installations could reach approximately 500GW by 2024 [15]. - N-type technology offers significant advantages over P-type, with higher conversion efficiency and better performance metrics, leading to a rapid increase in market penetration [16][18]. 3. Leading the Development of TOPCon Technology - JinkoSolar is positioned as a leader in the mass production of TOPCon technology, which is expected to provide a competitive advantage in the industry [24]. - The company has a robust global capacity layout, with plans to expand production in various regions, including Vietnam and the United States [8][10]. 4. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report projects a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 35.5% in revenue from 2018 to 2022, with a significant increase in net profit expected in 2023 [10][12]. - The company's profitability has improved, with a decrease in expense ratios and an increase in gross margins, indicating a strong operational performance [12][14].
业绩短期承压,静待CW光源与100 GEML产品上量
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES· 2024-02-04 16:00
业绩短期承压,静 待 C W 光源与 1 0 0 G E M L 产品上量 -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 2023-022023-032023-042023-052023-062023-072023-082023-092023-102023-112023-122024-01 源杰科技 沪深300 公司持有该股票比例 相关报告 高速网络连接的需求,公司高速光芯片等产品有望带来新的增量空间。此外,2024 年 1 月 31 日,公司公告了董事长提议的回购计划,回购资金总额不低于人民币 0.5 亿 元,不超过 1 亿元,回购实施期限为 12 个月。基于公司短期业绩承压,我们调整公司 2023-2025 年净利润分别为 0.22 亿/1.06 亿/1.54 亿元(原预测值为 0.78 亿/1.18 亿 /1.81 亿元),对应 EPS 分别为 0.26 元/1.25 元/1.81 元,维持"买入"评级。 ◼ 风险提示:下游市场需求不及预期;研发或新产品进展不达预期;市场竞争格局恶化。 单位:百万元 2023E 2022 贸 币 资 企 管业股入 201 10 115 应收账款 162 4 23 ...
新冠基数等扰动影响短期表现,常规ICL有望加速恢复
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES· 2024-02-03 16:00
新冠基数等扰动影响短期表现,常规ICL 有望加速恢复 金域医学(603882)/医疗器械 证券研究报告/公司点评 2024年2月1日 [Table_Industry] [评Ta级ble:_T买itle入] (维持) [公Ta司ble盈_F利in预anc测e]及 估值 市场价格:53.08元 指标 2021A 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 营业收入(百万元) 11,943 15,476 8,645 10,357 12,404 分析师:谢木青 增长率yoy% 45% 30% -44% 20% 20% 执业证书编号:S0740518010004 净利润(百万元) 2,220 2,753 665 1,104 1,427 电话:021-20315895 增长率yoy% 47% 24% -76% 66% 29% 每股收益(元) 4.74 5.87 1.42 2.36 3.04 Email:xiemq@zts.com.cn 每股现金流量 4.45 4.16 1.35 1.74 2.09 分析师:于佳喜 净资产收益率 34% 31% 7% 10% 12% 执业证书编号:S0740523080002 P/E ...
海信家电2023年年度预告点评:Q4符合预期,改善逻辑持续兑现
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES· 2024-02-03 16:00
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Hisense Home Appliances, expecting a relative increase of over 15% in stock price compared to the benchmark index over the next 6 to 12 months [6]. Core Views - The company's Q4 performance met expectations, with a continued improvement logic in place. The annual profit forecast for 2023 is between 3.2 billion to 4.2 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 92% to 99% [2][4]. - Revenue is projected to grow significantly, with estimates of 85.378 billion CNY for 2023, representing a 15% year-on-year increase, and further growth expected in subsequent years [2][4]. - The report highlights strong internal growth drivers, particularly in the air conditioning and refrigerator segments, with expectations of double-digit growth in domestic sales and even higher growth in exports [2][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a net profit of 2.818 billion CNY for 2023, a substantial increase of 96% year-on-year, with projections for 2024 and 2025 showing continued growth [2][4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to rise from 2.03 CNY in 2023 to 2.67 CNY in 2025, indicating a positive trend in profitability [4]. Revenue and Growth Projections - The revenue forecast for 2024 is set at 93.703 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 10% year-on-year, and for 2025, it is projected to reach 100.294 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 7% [2][4]. - The report anticipates that the company's various business segments will continue to show robust growth, particularly in high-growth niches such as new air conditioning products and overseas markets [2][4]. Market Position and Strategy - Hisense Home Appliances is expected to maintain a strong market position, with ongoing efforts to expand into new business areas and improve operational efficiency [2][4]. - The report emphasizes the company's ability to enhance profit margins through structural upgrades and cost reduction strategies, which are expected to yield positive results in the coming years [2][4].
银轮股份:深耕热管理,基于平台能力持续打开成长曲线
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES· 2024-02-03 16:00
评级:买入(首次) | --- | --- | |-----------------------------|--------| | | | | 基本状况 总股本 ( 百万股 ) | 804 | | 流通股本 ( 百万股 ) | 755 | | 市价 ( 元 ) | 14.74 | | 市值 ( 百万元 ) | 11,854 | | 流通市值 ( 百万元 ) | 11,132 | 相关报告 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------|---------|-------|-------|--------------------------|-------------|--------| | 公司盈利预测及估值 \n指标 | \n2021A | 2022A | | 2023E | 2024E | 2025E | | 营业收入(百万元) | 7,816 | 8,480 | | 11,039 | 13,139 | 16,539 | | 增长率 yoy% | 24% ...