证券研究报告/晨会聚焦 2025 年 02 月 18 日 分析师：戴志锋 执业证书编号：S0740517030004 Email：daizf@zts.com.cn 【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】政策杨畅：等待民企增量政策出台—— 当前经济与政策思考 欢迎关注中泰研究所订阅号 晨报内容回顾 1、《【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】银行 戴志锋：4Q24 货币政策执行报告点 评：宽松继续，节奏审慎》2025-02-17 2、《【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】地产 由子沛：三大拐点齐现，板块迎来反 弹机会》2025-02-12 3、《【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】化工 孙颖：固态电池材料专题报告：产业 方向日益清晰，技术迭代驶入快车道》 2025-02-12 今日预览 今日重点>> 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 【轻工纺服】张潇：奢侈品 Q4 中国区表现回升，关注文化纸节后普遍 提价-——轻工制造及纺服服饰行业周报 【政策】杨畅：等待民企增量政策出台-——当前经济与政策思考 今日重点 【轻工纺服】张潇：奢侈品 Q4 中国区表现回升，关注文化纸节后普遍提价-——轻工制造及纺服 服饰行业周报 2025/2/10-2025/2/14 上证指数 1.3%， ...

Group 1 - The trading sentiment of the A-share technology sector is currently at a high level, primarily driven by valuation rather than earnings, in contrast to the US market which is driven by both valuation and earnings [3][6][29] - The trading congestion in the A-share TMT sector has reached 43%, surpassing the previous historical high of 40%, while the US market is at 38% and Hong Kong at 39% [3][8][13] - The trading congestion of the ChiNext index is also high, currently at 37%, close to its historical peak of 41% [3][13][15] Group 2 - A-share technology sector valuations are overall high, with the computer industry PE (TTM) at 83 times, the electronics industry at 58 times, and the communication industry at 44 times, all above their historical percentiles [3][16][20] - The A-share Sci-Tech 50 index has a PE (TTM) of 87 times, which is at the 98th percentile of the past decade, while the ChiNext index is at 35 times, at the 22nd percentile [3][22][24] - A-share technology leaders have a PE average of 39 times, which is comparable to the US market, while the Hong Kong market is lower at an average of 29 times [3][26][27] Group 3 - The A-share technology market is primarily reliant on valuation fluctuations, with recent trends showing that the market's expectations for the technology sector's success rates are converging [3][29] - The performance of US technology stocks has been driven by earnings growth, with a significant portion of the gains attributed to profitability rather than valuation increases [3][29] - The report highlights a divergence in pricing logic between the US and A-share markets, with the latter being more sensitive to valuation changes [3][29]

【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】银行戴志锋：4Q24 货币政策执行报告点评：宽松继续， 节奏审慎 证券研究报告 2025 年 2 月 17 日 | [Table_Industry] [T[分Taa析bbl师lee__：TMi戴tlea志]in锋] | [b_Suy 今日预览 | | --- | --- | | 执业证书编号：S0740517030004 | | | 电话： | | | Email： | | | | 研究分享>> | | |  【银行】戴志锋：4Q24 货币政策执行报告点评：宽松继续，节奏审慎 | | |  【通信】陈宁玉：Deepseek+带来的运营商云与 AIDC 价值重估 | | |  【科技】孙行臻：国家数据集团组建在即，数据要素市场化改革步入深 | | | 水期 | 对稳汇率的表态更为强硬，关注度有提升。将 3Q24 货币政策报告中"防止形成单边一致性预期并 自我实现，坚决防范汇率超调风险"，修订为"增强外汇市场韧性，加强外汇市场管理，坚决对市 场顺周期行为进行纠偏，坚决对扰乱市场秩序行为进行处置，坚决防范汇率超调风险"，表态更为 强硬，对稳汇率的关注度有提升。 对压降实体融资成本的目标未 ...

奢侈品 Q4 中国区表现回升，关注文化纸节后普遍提价 ——轻工制造及纺服服饰行业周报 分析师：张潇 执业证书编号：S0740523030001 Email：zhangxiao06@zts.com.cn 分析师：郭美鑫 执业证书编号：S0740520090002 Email：guomx@zts.com.cn 分析师：邹文婕 执业证书编号：S0740523070001 Email：zouwj@zts.com.cn 分析师：吴思涵 执业证书编号：S0740523090002 Email：wush@zts.com.cn | | | | 上市公司数 | 154 | | --- | --- | | 行业总市值(亿元) | 8,987.57 | | 行业流通市值(亿元) | 7,726.31 | 1、《关税预期 price in，关注 AI 眼镜 和线下特卖行业机遇》2025-02-10 2、《24 年全球 AI 眼镜销量超 200 万台，嘉益、匠心、索菲亚、台华等 披露业绩预告》2025-01-27 3、《李宁重获中国奥委会合作，海 澜京东奥莱线下特卖供需两旺》 2025-01-20 轻工制造 证券研究报告/行业定期报告 ...

【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】银行戴志锋：4Q24 货币政策执行报告点评：宽松继续， 节奏审慎 证券研究报告 2025 年 2 月 17 日 | [Table_Industry] [T[分Taa析bbl师lee__：TMi戴tlea志]in锋] | [b_Suy 今日预览 | | --- | --- | | 执业证书编号：S0740517030004 | | | 电话： | | | Email： | | | | 研究分享>> | | |  【银行】戴志锋：4Q24 货币政策执行报告点评：宽松继续，节奏审慎 | | |  【通信】陈宁玉：Deepseek+带来的运营商云与 AIDC 价值重估 | | |  【科技】孙行臻：国家数据集团组建在即，数据要素市场化改革步入深 | | | 水期 | 欢迎关注中泰研究所订阅号 晨报内容回顾： 对稳汇率的表态更为强硬，关注度有提升。将 3Q24 货币政策报告中"防止形成单边一致性预期并 自我实现，坚决防范汇率超调风险"，修订为"增强外汇市场韧性，加强外汇市场管理，坚决对市 场顺周期行为进行纠偏，坚决对扰乱市场秩序行为进行处置，坚决防范汇率超调风险"，表态更为 强硬，对稳汇率的 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry or the specific company Core Insights - The company has established over 45,302 stores globally, focusing on lower-tier markets in China, with more than 50% of its domestic stores located in tier-three cities and below [3][14] - The supply chain is fully integrated, covering everything from raw material procurement to logistics and distribution, which allows the company to achieve lower procurement costs compared to competitors [4][28] - The "Snow King" IP has become a unique brand asset, enhancing brand recognition and enabling diverse marketing strategies [5][41] - The ready-to-drink beverage market is a trillion-dollar industry, with the fastest growth expected in China and Southeast Asia, where the company is a leading player [6][44][46] - Financially, the company reported revenues of 18.66 billion yuan and a net profit of 3.49 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, with a gross margin of 32.4% and a net margin of 18.7% [7][64] Summary by Sections Products and Stores - The company operates over 45,000 stores globally, with a significant focus on lower-tier markets in China, where over 50% of its stores are located in tier-three cities and below [3][14][17] - The average price of core products ranges from 2 to 10 yuan, making them highly accessible [20] Supply Chain - The company has a comprehensive supply chain that includes five production bases in China, ensuring food safety and operational efficiency [4][35] - The procurement network spans six continents and 38 countries, allowing for competitive pricing [32][34] IP and Marketing - The "Snow King" IP is the only super IP in China's ready-to-drink beverage industry, significantly enhancing brand visibility [5][41] - The company has leveraged its extensive store network for various marketing activities, achieving over 43.5 billion views on Douyin [41] Industry and Market Landscape - The global ready-to-drink beverage market is projected to grow from $779.1 billion in 2023 to $1,103.9 billion by 2028, with China and Southeast Asia expected to contribute nearly 40% of this growth [44][46] - The company holds a 7.4% market share in terms of beverage output, making it the second-largest player globally [56] Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue growth rate of 31%, 50%, and 21% for the years 2022, 2023, and the first three quarters of 2024, respectively [7][64] - The core revenue source is from the supply chain, which accounts for over 90% of total revenue [65]

Inflation Data - In January, the US CPI increased by 0.5% month-on-month (previous value: 0.4%) and 3.0% year-on-year (previous value: 2.9%) [3] - Energy prices rose by 1.1% month-on-month (previous value: 2.4%) and 1.0% year-on-year (previous value: -0.5%) [7] - Core CPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month (previous value: 0.2%) and 3.3% year-on-year (previous value: 3.2%) [7] Contributing Factors - Major contributors to the CPI increase include energy, housing rents, transportation services (mainly auto insurance), and used cars [3] - Used car prices rose by 2.2% month-on-month (previous value: 0.8%) [7] - Transportation services CPI increased by 1.8% month-on-month (previous value: 0.5%) [7] Market Reactions - Following the inflation data release, market expectations for the next Federal Reserve rate cut shifted from September to December [3] - The dollar index and US Treasury yields experienced a short-term increase [3] Economic Outlook - Short-term inflation drivers include a solid labor market and rising wage growth [8] - Potential drag factors include a short-term decline in oil prices and a decrease in food prices as indicated by the CRB spot index [8]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [6] Core Insights - The recent notification from the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration marks a significant step in the market-oriented development of the electricity sector, allowing all renewable energy projects to enter the electricity market [5] - The establishment of a sustainable pricing settlement mechanism for renewable energy ensures stable revenue for these projects, providing a form of "insurance" for their electricity sales [5] - The notification outlines a phased approach for integrating renewable energy projects into the market, with specific guidelines for existing and new projects [5] - The report suggests that the comprehensive entry of renewable energy into the market presents broader investment opportunities, recommending continued attention to companies such as Guoneng Rixin, Dongfang Electronics, State Grid Xintong, Langxin Group, Yuanguang Software, and Henghua Technology [5] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The total number of listed companies in the industry is 337, with a total market value of 44,199.21 billion and a circulating market value of 38,242.67 billion [2] Key Company Data - Guoneng Rixin has a stock price of 43.81 yuan, with projected EPS of 1.03 for 2022, 0.85 for 2023, and 0.99 for 2024, and a "Buy" rating [3] - Dongfang Electronics has a stock price of 9.70 yuan, with projected EPS of 0.33 for 2022, 0.40 for 2023, and 0.49 for 2024, and a "Buy" rating [3]

Group 1: Investment Strategy Overview - The report emphasizes the need to focus on industry trends and supply chain changes for 2025, particularly in sectors like electrolytic aluminum, new metal materials, gold, and electrolytic copper[4] - Gold prices are projected to rise to around $3,000 per ounce, driven by a structural premium and a potential decline in real interest rates[4] - Electrolytic copper production is expected to reach 26.91 million tons in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 3.4%[4] Group 2: Market Performance and Trends - The non-ferrous sector exhibited a "V" shaped recovery in 2024, with significant price fluctuations observed in various metals[10] - Gold prices increased by 28.8% in 2024, while battery-grade lithium prices fell by 24.2%[12] - The overall non-ferrous metal sector rose by 5.7% in 2024, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 10.3 percentage points[14] Group 3: Economic Risks and Challenges - Risks include macroeconomic fluctuations, changes in domestic liquidity policies, and potential underperformance in the new energy vehicle sector[4] - The report highlights a significant decline in new construction starts in the real estate sector, with a projected year-on-year decrease of 15% in 2025[26] - Uncertainties in overseas policies, particularly from the U.S., could introduce additional market volatility[30]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [2][41]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of long-term capital entering the market, highlighting that policies are in place to enhance the actual investment ratio of public funds and insurance companies in A-shares [4][6]. - It outlines specific measures to facilitate the entry of long-term funds, including extending assessment periods and optimizing the capital market ecosystem [8][19]. - The report projects significant growth in various long-term funds, with estimates suggesting that insurance companies could contribute approximately 335.3 billion yuan to the stock market by 2025 [10][37]. Summary by Sections 1. Implementation Plan for Long-term Capital Entry - The report discusses the joint issuance of the "Implementation Plan" by multiple regulatory bodies aimed at facilitating the entry of long-term capital into the market [6]. - Key initiatives include enhancing the investment ratio of commercial insurance funds and optimizing the management mechanisms of social security and pension funds [8][13]. 2. Current Status and Scale of Long-term Capital - The report provides a detailed analysis of the current status of various long-term funds, including social security funds, pension funds, and public funds, indicating substantial room for increased market participation [20][21]. - As of the end of 2023, the total assets of the national social security fund reached 3.01 trillion yuan, with only 0.56% of the total market capitalization invested in stocks [20]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the push for long-term capital entry will enhance market stability and create a positive feedback loop between capital and assets [38]. - Specific recommendations include focusing on leading brokerage firms such as CITIC, CICC, and Galaxy, as well as major insurance companies like Xinhua, China Life, Taikang, and Ping An [38].