Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Add" rating for Tesla [5]. Core Views - Tesla is transitioning from an automotive manufacturer to an AI company, with significant investments in AI infrastructure, which is expected to reshape the automotive and transportation industries [7][8]. - The report highlights that Tesla's financial performance is under pressure due to declining automotive sales, but the company is leveraging its existing automotive business and energy storage to support its AI transformation [8][9]. - The new valuation logic for Tesla is based on breakthroughs in autonomous driving technology leading to new business models and cash flows, which will enhance its price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio [8][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Introduction - The significance of studying Tesla from both fundamental and investment perspectives is emphasized, noting its role in leading the electrification and intelligent transformation of the automotive industry [14][17]. 2. Transformation - Tesla is making a significant shift towards AI, with nearly 30% of its new capital expenditures (CapEx) directed towards AI infrastructure, while automotive production has not seen new capacity investments for eight consecutive quarters [8][40]. - The report discusses the divergence between Tesla's stock price and automotive delivery volumes since Q2 2024, indicating a shift in market perception away from viewing Tesla solely as a car manufacturer [8][54]. 3. Autonomous Driving/FSD/Robotaxi - The report outlines a new valuation logic for Tesla's autonomous driving business, suggesting that successful technology breakthroughs will lead to new business models and cash flows, ultimately enhancing the company's valuation [8][9]. 4. Automotive Sales & Energy Storage - Tesla's automotive and energy storage businesses are identified as cash cows that support its transformation into an AI company, with a focus on maximizing the potential of existing production lines [8][9]. 5. Robotics/Optimus Business - The report notes that Tesla's robotics business is still in its early stages and not fully valued by the market, but it is expected to contribute to long-term growth [8][9]. 6. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The financial projections for Tesla indicate expected revenues of $99.02 billion in 2025, with a net profit of $5.57 billion, reflecting a significant growth trajectory despite current challenges [5][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative increase of over 15% in stock price compared to the benchmark index within the next 6 to 12 months [4][19]. Core Insights - The company reported strong performance in the first half of 2025, with revenue reaching 1.565 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.36%, and a net profit of 363 million yuan, up 17.04% year-on-year. The growth was driven by accelerated overseas market expansion and favorable foreign exchange gains [6]. - The overseas business has shown significant growth, with revenue from international markets reaching 899 million yuan, a 45% increase year-on-year, accounting for 58% of total revenue [6]. - The company is actively pursuing product innovation, establishing a second growth curve with visual products, and has made progress in various innovative projects [6]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2023A, the company reported revenue of 2,411 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 22%. The projected revenue for 2024A is 2,755 million yuan, with a growth rate of 14% [4]. - The net profit for 2023A was 486 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 47%. The forecast for 2024A is 553 million yuan, reflecting a 14% growth [4]. - The company's gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 64.89%, down 3.04 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 24.26%, showing a slight increase of 0.27 percentage points [6]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company expects revenue to reach 3.313 billion yuan in 2025E, with a growth rate of 20.2%, and net profit to be 641 million yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 15.9% [4][6]. - For the years 2026E and 2027E, revenue is projected to be 3.939 billion yuan and 4.762 billion yuan, with growth rates of 18.9% and 20.9% respectively. Net profit is expected to be 780 million yuan and 968 million yuan, with growth rates of 21.7% and 24.1% respectively [4][6].

Report Overview - Report Title: Credit Business Weekly - How to View the Recent Market Structure Switch? - Report Date: August 11, 2025 - Research Institute: Zhongtai Securities Research Institute - Analysts: Xu Chi, Zhang Wenyu 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current market adjustment is a phased structural switch rather than a major - cycle peak. The market's risk - preference and corporate earnings differentiation may reach an annual high in Q3. Policy support remains strong, and funds are just flowing to different sectors. The subsequent market is likely to continue the path of the "anti -内卷" policy [5]. - The market style is shifting from traditional cyclical sectors to the technology sector. This is influenced by internal and external demand, liquidity expectations, and a series of policies and events [7]. - The overall adjustment range and duration of the index are controllable. The index callback reflects market structural switching, and the logic of sector allocation remains unchanged. The report maintains the allocation recommendation for technology sectors (AI, robotics), the Hang Seng Technology Index, Hong Kong dividend sectors (utilities, social services), and the brokerage sector [7]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Review Market Performance - Last week, most major market indices rose, with the CSI 1000 having a relatively large increase of 2.51%. Among the large - scale industry indices, the materials and industrial indices performed well, with weekly increases of 3.53% and 3.23% respectively, while the healthcare and daily consumption indices were relatively weak, with weekly changes of - 0.72% and 1.09% respectively [9][11][19]. - Among the 30 Shenwan primary industries, 26 industries rose. The industries with large increases were national defense and military industry, non - ferrous metals, and machinery and equipment, with increases of 5.93%, 5.78%, and 5.37% respectively. The industries with large declines were pharmaceutical biology, computer, and commercial retail, with declines of 0.84%, 0.41%, and 0.38% respectively [10][20][22]. Trading Heat - Last week, the average daily trading volume of Wind All - A was 16964.10 billion yuan (the previous value was 18096.34 billion yuan), which was at a relatively high historical level (90.10% of the three - year historical quantile) [10][24]. Valuation Tracking - As of August 8, 2025, the Wind All - A valuation (PE_TTM) was 20.69, up 0.36 from the previous week, and was at the 83.80% quantile of the historical level (in the past 5 years). Among the 30 Shenwan primary industries, 26 industries' valuations (PE_TTM) were repaired [30]. Market Observation Current Market Adjustment: Peak or Structural Switch? - The current market adjustment is similar to the situation after the NDRC meeting on October 8 last year. It is a phased structural switch, not a major - cycle peak. Fundamentally, the differentiation of risk preference and corporate earnings may reach an annual high in Q3. Policy - wise, the government's support for the market remains strong, and policies are guiding institutional funds from the bond market to the stock market. From the capital perspective, funds are just flowing to different sectors, and the subsequent market is likely to continue the path of the "anti -内卷" policy [5]. Impact of the July Politburo Meeting on the Market - Internationally, although the US stock market faces short - term data tests, it does not pose a systemic risk. The US stock market's core profit drivers come from the easing of Trump's trade policy uncertainty, the "winner - takes - all" effect in the AI field, and the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut. - The market style is shifting from traditional cyclical sectors to technology sectors, driven by internal and external demand, liquidity expectations, and a series of policies and events, such as the upcoming Fourth Plenary Session, the Victory Day parade, and the expectation of a Sino - US summit [7]. Global Economic Calendar - Domestic economic data to be released this week include China's M2 money supply year - on - year, social financing scale, 70 - city housing price index year - on - year, unemployment rate, and new RMB loans. Key domestic events include the National Bureau of Statistics' press conference on the national economic operation. - Overseas economic data to be released include the US unadjusted CPI year - on - year, euro - zone employment number quarterly - on - quarterly, US PPI year - on - year, and US retail sales year - on - year. Key overseas events include the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow economic growth forecast [32].

Core Insights - The report highlights the strong performance of overseas IP leaders, with significant revenue growth in the IP-related sector [2][3][4] - Disney's experience business showed resilience, with total revenue increasing by 2% year-on-year to $23.7 billion, and operating profit rising by 8% to $4.6 billion in Q3 FY25 [2] - Sanrio reported a remarkable 49% year-on-year revenue growth in Q1 FY26, with revenue from the China region doubling [3] - Bandai Namco achieved a steady revenue increase of 7.1% year-on-year in Q1 FY26, driven by strong performance from its IPs [3] - CyberAgent's media and IP business saw a 10.9% year-on-year revenue growth in Q3 FY25, with significant profit increases in both media/IP and gaming sectors [4] Company Summaries - **Disney**: In Q3 FY25, the entertainment segment generated $10.7 billion in revenue (up 1% year-on-year), while the experience segment saw an 8% increase to $9.1 billion [2] - **Sanrio**: For Q1 FY26, the company reported revenue of 43.1 billion yen (up 49% year-on-year) and a net profit of 14.19 billion yen (up 38%) [3] - **Bandai Namco**: The company recorded revenue of 300.43 billion yen in Q1 FY26, with a net profit of 38.33 billion yen, reflecting a 12.6% year-on-year increase [3] - **CyberAgent**: The company achieved revenue of 210.78 billion yen in Q3 FY25, with a net profit of 8.24 billion yen, marking a 46.6% year-on-year increase [4] - **Hasbro**: In Q2 FY25, Hasbro reported revenue of $981 million, a slight decline of 1% year-on-year, with the Wizards segment growing by 16% [5] - **Mattel**: The company generated $1.019 billion in revenue in Q2 FY25, down 6% year-on-year, with mixed performance across different product categories [6] - **DeNa**: In Q1 FY25, DeNa's revenue reached 41.7 billion yen, a 23% year-on-year increase, with a significant rise in gaming revenue [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [3] Core Views - The overall performance in the first half of 2025 was stable and met expectations, with a slight decline in cable car passenger numbers due to weather conditions, but a record high revenue in Q2 2025 demonstrated robust operational performance [5] - The company achieved revenue of 378 million yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 1.85%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 95 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.86%, which aligns with expectations [5] - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025, 2026, and 2027 has been adjusted to 232 million, 260 million, and 280 million yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 21.1, 18.8, and 17.5 [5] Financial Summary - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a historical high revenue of 215 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.04%, and a net profit of 60 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.26% [5] - The company’s cable car and performance business saw a decline in visitor numbers, with a total of 3.088 million visitors in H1 2025, down 4.6% year-on-year, while the hotel business exceeded expectations with revenue growth [5] - The revenue from the Lijiang He Fu Hotel was 61.64 million yuan, up 5.5% year-on-year, and the revenue from the Diqing Shangri-La Hotel was 14.56 million yuan, up 25.1% year-on-year [5] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 808 million yuan in 2024 to 932 million yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 1%, 1%, 8%, and 6% respectively [3][7] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 211 million yuan in 2024 to 280 million yuan in 2027, with growth rates of -7%, 10%, 12%, and 8% respectively [3][7] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.38 yuan in 2024 to 0.51 yuan in 2027 [3][7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [3][5][7] Core Views - The company is expected to continue expanding its high-potential customer base, with revenue growth anticipated as production capacity is gradually released. However, some customer orders may still face pressure due to uncertainties in the trade environment and fluctuations in overseas demand [5][6] - The company plans to distribute a significant mid-term dividend, proposing a cash dividend of RMB 10 per 10 shares, totaling RMB 1.167 billion, which represents 70% of the net profit attributable to the parent company for the first half of 2025 [5][6] Financial Performance Summary - For H1 2025, the company reported operating revenue of RMB 12.66 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10.36%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 1.66 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 11.42% [5] - In Q2 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of RMB 7.31 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9.0%, with a net profit of RMB 902 million, down 17.3% year-on-year [5] - The company’s sales volume for H1 2025 was 115 million pairs, up 6.1% year-on-year, with an average price of approximately RMB 110.09 per pair, reflecting a 3.6% increase year-on-year [5] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company's revenue is projected to grow from RMB 20.114 billion in 2023 to RMB 34.497 billion by 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of -2%, 19%, 11%, 14%, and 13% respectively [3][5] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to fluctuate, with forecasts of RMB 3.2 billion in 2023, RMB 3.84 billion in 2024, and RMB 4.962 billion in 2027 [3][5] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 19.0 in 2023 to 12.3 in 2027, indicating an improving valuation over time [3][5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry [2] Core Insights - The industry is entering an accelerated growth phase, driven by innovation in drug and medical device sectors, with a focus on performance, technology, and demand factors [4][11] - The market is experiencing differentiation, with a notable shift towards innovative drugs and medical devices, particularly in the context of AI-driven drug development and brain-computer interface technologies [4][8] - The report highlights the importance of selecting stocks based on robust performance, technological innovation, and potential for clinical research advancements [4][8] Summary by Sections Industry Investment Rating - The report rates the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry as "Overweight" [2] Key Company Status - The report provides a detailed overview of key companies, including their stock prices, earnings per share (EPS) forecasts, and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios, with several companies rated as "Buy" [2] Market Trends - The report notes that the pharmaceutical sector has outperformed the broader market, with a year-to-date return of 21.28% compared to 4.32% for the CSI 300 index [13] - Recent market dynamics show a divergence within the pharmaceutical sector, with medical devices gaining traction while other segments like biopharmaceuticals and traditional medicine face declines [4][13] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on companies with stable or reversing performance, particularly in innovative drugs and medical devices, as well as those involved in AI-driven drug discovery [4][8] - Specific companies recommended for attention include WuXi Biologics, Innovent Biologics, and others involved in significant clinical research or technological advancements [4][8] Policy Support and Industry Growth - The report discusses the strong policy support for brain-computer interface technologies, which is expected to accelerate industry growth and innovation [11][9] - By 2027, key technological breakthroughs are anticipated, establishing a robust industry ecosystem with global competitiveness [11][9]

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the REITs industry [1]. Core Insights - The REITs index experienced a slight decline of 0.33% this week, while the broader market indices such as the Shanghai Composite and CSI 500 saw increases of 1.23% and 1.78%, respectively [4][16]. - Newly listed data center REITs, namely Southern Wanguo and Southern Runze, both saw significant gains of 30% on their debut [6][20]. - The overall trading volume for REITs this week was 3.67 billion yuan, reflecting a 1.5% increase compared to the previous week [6]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The total number of listed companies in the REITs sector is 73, with a total market capitalization of 221.233 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 103.698 billion yuan [1]. - The report highlights that 23 REITs increased in value, 1 remained stable, and 49 declined, indicating a mixed performance across the sector [20]. Key Events - Significant events include the listing of Southern Wanguo Data Center REIT and Southern Runze Technology Data Center REIT on August 8, both achieving a 30% increase in their first trading day [9][14]. - Other notable updates include the registration effectiveness of various REIT projects and announcements regarding expansions and new acquisitions in the infrastructure sector [9][12]. Trading Performance - The trading volume for different REIT categories varied, with data-related REITs showing a remarkable increase of 100% in trading volume, while other categories like industrial parks and warehousing logistics saw declines [6][20]. - The report indicates that the correlation of REITs with various bond indices and stock indices varies, with a correlation of 0.33 with the Shanghai Composite and 0.37 with the CSI 500 [16].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the defense and military industry [5] Core Views - The report is optimistic about the gradual improvement of fundamentals and the upward trend in new domains and new quality combat capabilities, particularly in satellite internet construction [8][24] - The defense index has risen by 24.04% since May 6, driven by military trade and parade sentiments, indicating strong market performance [8][23] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The defense and military industry comprises 143 listed companies with a total market value of 30,365.12 billion and a circulating market value of 25,995.20 billion [2] Market Performance - The defense and military index increased by 5.93% this week, outperforming other major indices [7][37] - The current PE(TTM) for the defense and military sector is 75.6 times, with sub-sectors showing varying valuations [7][43] Key Improvement Tracks - **Missile and Military Electronics**: Anticipated growth in demand for precision-guided munitions is expected to lead to a surge in military electronics orders starting from Q4 2024 [8][23] - **Aerospace Engine Supply Chain**: Recovery in military engine procurement and improvements in profitability are expected due to new model introductions and maintenance business growth [9][10][23] Focus Areas for Development - **New Generation Manned and Unmanned Aircraft**: The J-35 is expected to drive a new wave of growth in the aerospace supply chain [11][23] - **Satellite Internet**: The successful launch of the seventh batch of satellites for the GW constellation marks significant progress in satellite internet capabilities [12][24] - **Commercial Space Industry**: The report highlights the acceleration of commercial space activities, with plans for significant satellite launches in 2025 [14][24] Suggested Companies to Watch - **Missile and Military Electronics**: Companies like Zhenhua Technology, Hongyuan Electronics, and Torch Electronics are highlighted [19][25] - **Aerospace Engines**: Focus on Aviation Power and its supporting companies [26] - **New Generation Unmanned Aircraft**: Companies such as AVIC Shenyang Aircraft and AVIC Chengfei are recommended [27] Key Developments - **Nuclear Fusion**: The "Spark One" project aims to complete construction by the end of 2029, with a goal to demonstrate power generation by 2030 [15][28] - **Low-altitude Economy**: The successful flight of a 2-ton eVTOL for offshore oil platform logistics marks a significant milestone [16][29]

A-Share Market - The overall market showed an increase last week, with small-cap stocks performing significantly better than mid and large-cap stocks. The CSI 2000 index rose by 3.54%, and the CSI 1000 index increased by 2.51%, while the ChiNext index saw a modest rise of less than 0.5% [5] - The average daily trading volume reached 1.70 trillion, reflecting a week-on-week decline of 6.26% [5] - The recent market recovery has favored small-cap stocks, with sectors such as non-ferrous metals, machinery, and national defense performing well, while the computer and pharmaceutical sectors lagged [5] - The Shanghai government released the "Implementation Plan for the Development of Embodied Intelligence Industry," aiming for a core industry scale to exceed 50 billion by 2027, which, along with the World Robot Conference, has attracted investment in the machinery sector [5] - Following the recent Politburo meeting, which aligned with expectations, the overall monetary policy remains stable, and the "anti-involution" narrative is moderate. The A-share market is expected to continue a structural upward trend driven by valuation recovery under a dual easing fiscal and monetary environment [5] Hong Kong Market - The Hong Kong market experienced a rebound last week, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 1.43% and the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 1.17%. The materials sector, particularly metals, saw significant gains, with weekly increases exceeding 10%, while healthcare and consumer discretionary sectors faced pressure [6] - The rebound in the Hong Kong market was primarily driven by the materials sector, especially metals. The fifth round of price increases for coking coal was fully implemented, and the ongoing "anti-involution" trend boosted the coal sector. Additionally, rising gold prices contributed to substantial gains in gold stocks [6] - Companies in the metals sector, such as China Hongqiao, reported better-than-expected interim results, further supporting the rise in the metals sector [6] - Market sentiment has improved, with the Hang Seng Index showing relative strength, mainly driven by cyclical sectors. The ongoing "anti-involution" trend is expected to sustain the recovery of cyclical sectors. Furthermore, the current low valuation of the internet social services sector in Hong Kong presents potential upside, and with rising AI capital expenditures and increased support for technological innovation policies, leading companies in the Hang Seng Tech sector have medium to long-term growth potential [6]