Investment Rating - The report rates the raw material pharmaceutical industry as "Outperform" compared to the market, marking its first rating [1]. Core Insights - The raw material pharmaceutical sector is nearing the end of an active destocking phase, with profitability gradually recovering. In 2023, China's pharmaceutical raw material output was 3.427 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7.6%. However, starting from Q2 2024, production is expected to show year-on-year growth, with export volumes in the first half of 2024 increasing by 23.4% [2][11]. - Price trends indicate a potential turning point, with some products already showing signs of recovery. As of September 2024, prices for vitamins have significantly increased, while cardiovascular raw material prices have slightly decreased. Antibiotic raw materials and intermediates have seen minor price increases, while some products like penicillin industrial salt have experienced price drops [2][30]. - The inventory levels of key raw material companies have been consistently declining from Q4 2023 to Q2 2024, indicating a positive trend in operational performance with revenue and net profit showing year-on-year growth [2][52]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The raw material pharmaceutical industry is experiencing marginal improvements in production, with multiple catalysts expected to open up growth opportunities [4]. Price Tracking - Vitamin prices have surged significantly, while prices for analgesics and heparin have shown notable declines. The overall price trend reflects a recovery from the previous overcapacity situation [30][33]. Company Performance - In the first half of 2024, the overall performance of the raw material pharmaceutical sector showed signs of recovery, with a total revenue of 62.83 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.5%, and a net profit of 8.74 billion yuan, up 15.6% [48]. Inventory Levels - The inventory levels of raw material pharmaceutical companies have been decreasing, suggesting a potential rebound in downstream demand as the destocking cycle approaches its end [52]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies benefiting from inventory clearance, integrated formulations, and new product launches, such as Huahai Pharmaceutical, Aorite, Xianju Pharmaceutical, and others [3].

华福证券 研 工程机械 积极财政政策支撑工程机械需求，9 月挖掘机内 外销延续增长势头 投资要点： 加大财政政策逆周期调节力度，地产企稳基建有望迎来刺激。 下游地产、基建投资不及预期，原材料等价格波动风险，国际贸 易风险，人民币汇率波动风险。 强于大市（维持评级） 9 月 24 日，央行宣布降准、降息和降低存量房贷利率的系列政策， 释放长期流动性约 1 万亿元，将推动企业融资和居民信贷成本进一步 降低。9 月 26 日，政治局召开会议，强调要促进房地产市场止跌回稳， 对商品房建设要严控增量、优化存量、提高质量，加大"白名单"项 目贷款投放力度，支持盘活存量闲置土地。9 月 29 日，中国人民银行 与金融监管总局联合发布四项金融政策，包括调整商业个人住房贷款 利率定价机制、优化首付比例、优化保障性住房再贷款要求以及延长 特定房地产金融政策的有效期等。10 月 12 日，财政部新闻发布会中， 财政部将在近期陆续推出一揽子有针对性的增量政策举措。例如加大 力度支持地方化解政府债务风险，较大规模增加债务额度和叠加运用 地方政府专项债券、专项资金、税收政策等工具，支持推动房地产市 场止跌回稳等政策。 相关报告 1、9 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a rating of "Outperform" for the solar power industry [3]. Core Insights - The MENA region is experiencing a rapid energy transition, presenting significant opportunities for solar and storage solutions, as well as grid development [10][12]. - The solar market in MENA is projected to grow substantially, with installed capacity expected to reach 40 GW by 2024 and 180 GW by 2030, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 28% from 2024 to 2030 [18][43]. - Trade barriers and domestic price declines are reshaping the export routes for Chinese solar companies, pushing them to explore the MENA market [27][48]. Summary by Sections MENA Energy Transition - The MENA region has abundant solar resources, with annual solar radiation exceeding 2000 kW·h/m² in several countries, making it a prime location for solar energy development [10]. - Countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE are actively pursuing renewable energy goals to reduce reliance on traditional fossil fuels, with significant investments in infrastructure [12][23]. Solar Power Market - The MENA solar market is characterized by strong government support and ambitious renewable energy targets, with countries setting long-term goals for renewable energy generation [17][19]. - The region's solar capacity is expected to grow rapidly, with a projected increase from approximately 32 GW in 2023 to 180 GW by 2030, driven by favorable policies and economic conditions [18][43]. - The average price of solar power in the MENA region has begun to recover, reaching over 1.68 cents per kWh in 2023, enhancing the economic viability of solar projects [27]. Storage Solutions - The demand for energy storage in the MENA region is expected to grow significantly, with projections of deploying 40-50 GWh of storage projects by 2030 [10]. - Both front-of-the-meter and behind-the-meter storage solutions are becoming economically viable, with various applications emerging across the region [10]. Grid Development - The energy transition is driving the need for grid upgrades, with significant investments in high-voltage and flexible direct current (DC) technologies [10]. - The MENA region is witnessing a surge in grid infrastructure projects, with several contracts awarded recently, indicating a robust demand for grid equipment [10]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as GCL-Poly Energy, TCL Zhonghuan, JinkoSolar, and others in the solar sector, as well as companies in the energy storage and grid sectors [10].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" for companies like Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and Shennong Group, indicating a potential upside of over 20% in the next six months [62]. Core Insights - The report highlights cautious replenishment in pig farming, with a slight increase or decrease in the breeding stock in September. The supply pressure is limited, and pig prices have started to rise after a period of decline. The average pig price on October 11 was 18.12 yuan/kg, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.90 yuan/kg [2][10]. - For white feather broilers, the supply is tight while demand remains broad, leading to a robust price for chick seedlings. The price of white feather broiler chicks was 4.20 yuan/chick on October 11, up 22.45% week-on-week [3][28]. - The seed industry is receiving support from five government departments to enhance financing for seed companies, which is expected to accelerate the commercialization of biotechnology breeding and improve market concentration [3][41]. Summary by Sections Pig Farming - Cautious replenishment is observed, with a slight increase or decrease in breeding stock in September. The total output of pigs is expected to increase by 3.00% to 4.30% in October, with daily output showing mixed trends [10][21]. - The average weight of pigs sold is 125.87 kg, with a slight increase compared to the previous period. The price difference between heavier pigs and standard pigs has strengthened, indicating a tightening supply of large pigs [21][23]. - The profitability of self-bred and purchased piglets was reported at 305.91 yuan/head and 47.27 yuan/head, respectively, showing a significant week-on-week decline [10][21]. White Feather Broilers - The supply of parent stock has decreased, leading to a tight supply of broiler chicks. The price of broiler chicks has risen significantly, and the overall price for white feather broilers is expected to increase due to improved supply-demand dynamics [3][28]. - The report notes that the reduction in parent stock and the impact of avian influenza have led to a decrease in the number of broiler chicks available, which is expected to support price increases in the future [30][32]. Seed Industry - The government has issued policies to support financing for seed companies, which is expected to enhance innovation and accelerate the commercialization of biotechnology breeding [3][41]. - The report emphasizes that the commercialization of genetically modified varieties will expand market space and improve industry concentration, benefiting leading seed companies [41].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the defense and military industry [3]. Core Insights - The defense and military index has increased by 23.56% since September 23, while the CSI 300 index has risen by 21.43%, indicating a relative outperformance of 2.12%. The overall performance of the index is consistent with the broader market, but historical data shows that the military sector typically outperforms the CSI 300 during bull markets, suggesting significant upside potential for the sector [33]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The military index (801740) decreased by 2.48% from October 8 to October 11, while the CSI 300 index fell by 3.25%, resulting in a relative outperformance of 0.78 percentage points. The military index ranked 8th among 31 sectors during this period [10][12]. - Since May 2024, the military index has gained 8.78%, compared to a 7.85% increase in the CSI 300, marking a relative outperformance of 0.94 percentage points and an improvement in ranking by 10 positions [12]. Key Investment Thesis - The report emphasizes that the period around the disclosure of the third-quarter reports is an optimal time for investment in the military sector. It anticipates a positive marginal change in industry demand by the end of October, driven by the annual demand expectations from end customers to upstream suppliers [2][33]. Fund Flows and Valuation - There has been a significant net inflow into military ETFs, totaling 3.213 billion yuan, which is substantially higher than the historical average. This indicates increasing market confidence and interest in the military sector [21]. - As of October 11, the TTM price-to-earnings ratio for the military index is 49.51, which is relatively low compared to historical levels since the start of the 14th Five-Year Plan, suggesting a strong margin of safety for investors [27][29].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the semiconductor sector, indicating a positive outlook for recovery and growth in the industry [3]. Core Insights - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a gradual recovery, with TSMC's gross margin expected to improve due to strong demand for AI chips, while mature process demand remains weak [2][12]. - The storage segment shows a mixed performance, with DDR3 demand declining and NOR flash experiencing a mild recovery, with potential shortages anticipated in 2025 [2][3]. - Consumer electronics, particularly the iPhone 16, are seeing stable shipments, while large-size panel shipments are recovering [2][3]. - The AI and OEM sectors are expected to maintain steady performance, with significant growth in AI server shipments [2][3]. Summary by Sections Semiconductor - TSMC's revenue reached approximately NT$251.87 billion in September, a 39.6% year-on-year increase, driven by AI chip demand [12][14]. - The advanced process demand remains strong, while mature process pricing is under pressure, with some foundries willing to lower prices [12][16]. - UMC's September revenue was NT$18.94 billion, reflecting a slight decline, indicating a buyer's market for mature processes [16]. Storage - The DDR3 segment is weakening as demand shifts to DDR4, while NOR flash is showing signs of recovery, with expectations of better performance in the second half of the year [2][3]. - Nanya Technology anticipates a decline in shipments and prices for the third quarter, while Winbond expects NOR flash performance to improve compared to the second quarter [2][3]. Consumer Electronics - The iPhone 16 is seeing stable shipments, with expectations for October revenue to remain steady [2][3]. - Large-size panel shipments increased by 3.5% month-on-month, while small and medium-size panel shipments decreased by 5% [2][3]. AI & OEM - The AI server segment is expected to maintain double-digit growth, with overall shipments projected to increase significantly [2][3]. - The demand for AI-related products continues to drive growth in the sector, with companies like Wistron expecting stable shipments in Q4 [2][3]. Components and Power - Passive components revenue stabilized in September, with a year-on-year increase of 10% [3]. - The PCB segment is experiencing strong growth driven by new product developments in AI terminals [3].

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In September, China's CPI increased by 0.4% year-on-year, a decrease from August's growth rate[1] - The food, tobacco, and alcohol prices contributed to a 0.15 percentage point increase in CPI month-on-month, with fresh vegetables and fruits driving increases of 0.11 and 0.04 percentage points respectively[2] - Year-on-year, clothing prices rose by 1.3% and food, tobacco, and alcohol prices increased by 2.3%[1] Group 2: PPI Analysis - In September, PPI decreased by 2.8% year-on-year, with the decline widening by 1.3 percentage points compared to August[3] - The production materials prices fell by 3.3% year-on-year, while living materials prices dropped by 1.3%[3] - Coal mining and washing industry prices decreased by 2.6% year-on-year, while oil and gas extraction prices fell by 10.1%, a significant increase in the rate of decline compared to August[5] Group 3: Price Trends - Fresh vegetables saw a significant year-on-year price increase of 22.9% in September[2] - The prices of transportation and communication services decreased by 1.3% month-on-month, while education, culture, and entertainment prices fell by 0.3%[1] - The decline in PPI for production materials was marginally improved month-on-month, decreasing by 0.8%[3] Group 4: Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected macroeconomic changes, geopolitical events, and significant fluctuations in overseas markets[6]

epyTtropeR_elbaT|tsriF_elbaT 华福证券 Tabl e_First|Tabl e_Summary Tabl e_First|Tabl e_R eportD ate 电子 2024 年 10 月 14 日 行 业 研 究 电子行业周报（10.07-10.13） 联想科技大会发布在即，AI 终端加速推进 强于大市(维持评级) 投资要点： ➢ 24Q3全球PC出货量实现连续增长，有望持续复苏。据集微网转引 Canalys 10月10日最新公布的研究报告数据显示，2024年第三季 度，全球PC市场连续四个季度实现增长，全球PC市场（包括台式 机、笔记本和工作站）总出货量增长1.3%，达到6640万台。而未来 12个月PC市场将继续保持强劲增长，主要系2025年10月Windows 10服务终止前，仍有大量的Windows PC装机需求，以及AI PC等创 新趋势的持续驱动。从具体的品牌厂商排名来看，联想位居榜首， 全球出货量达到1650万台，同比增长2.8%；惠普、戴尔、华硕、苹 果位居其后。Canalys首席分析师表示，第三季度的增长较温和， 但PC市场的复苏已全面展开，一些积极信号表明未 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that the resilience of the US economy is present in the medium term, but long-term stagnation is likely due to strong economic policy uncertainties [1][8] - The long-term growth center of the Chinese economy remains stable, with expected management and macroeconomic regulation being key focus areas after structural transformation [1][8] - The rise in capital market valuations reflects China's increasing global influence, which positively drives the long-term development of the Chinese economy, although it does not affect the growth center [1][11] - Short-term market trading focuses on high-low switching and low-position replenishment, while core assets under globalization and self-sufficiency are favored in the medium to long term [1][11] - The report highlights a long-term positive outlook for core assets in sectors such as automotive lithium batteries, wind and solar energy, copper and oil, semiconductor equipment, and leading companies in domestic demand, home appliances, and machinery [1][11] Group 2 - The report notes that the US CPI inflation exceeded expectations, with a year-on-year increase of 2.4% in September, compared to the expected 2.3% [7][9] - Core CPI also showed a year-on-year increase of 3.3%, against an expectation of 3.2%, indicating upward pressure from core goods inflation [7][9] - The report emphasizes that the US economy's "soft landing" possibility is rising, with market expectations likely to fluctuate frequently [8][11] - The report identifies a significant recovery in the technology sector, with the STAR 50 index rising by 3.04%, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 3.56% [11][12] - The technology sector outperformed others, with semiconductor, military electronics, and IT services leading the gains, while sectors like hotel and restaurant services and real estate services lagged [16][18]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the transportation industry [3][4]. Core Insights - The shipping sector shows mixed trends with rising rates for small oil tankers, while demand for product tankers weakens. Domestic shipping demand is rebounding, indicating potential for recovery [3][40]. - The logistics sector is experiencing a rebound, with express delivery demand exceeding expectations. Key players include Jitu Express and SF Express, which are expected to benefit from improved operational efficiency [3][43]. - The aviation sector is witnessing an increase in flight volumes during the National Day holiday, with a decrease in ticket prices, indicating a recovering supply-demand balance [3][46]. Summary by Sections Industry Weekly Market Review - The transportation index fell by 6.56%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.31 percentage points [6][8]. - The top-performing stocks this week included Jinxin Online B (+14.8%) and China National Offshore Oil Corporation (+10.7%) [12][14]. - The industry valuation is at a relatively low level, with a PE ratio of 15.7 times [15][18]. High-Frequency Data Tracking - In the shipping sector, the BDTI index rose by 8.7% week-on-week, indicating a recovery in oil tanker rates [19][20]. - The express delivery sector saw a year-on-year increase in volume, with a total of 3.126 billion packages collected in the last week [30][31]. Investment Strategy - In the shipping sector, the report highlights the potential for recovery in domestic shipping due to improved economic measures and demand [40][42]. - The logistics sector is recommended for investment, particularly in companies benefiting from the real estate chain, such as Debang Logistics [43][46]. - The aviation sector is advised for attention due to the increase in flight volumes and improving operational metrics [46][47].