Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [8] Core Viewpoints - The report suggests that the initiation of a rate-cutting cycle overseas may open up space for domestic interest rate reductions, potentially leading to a release of housing demand. It emphasizes the importance of global liquidity improvement and continuous easing of real estate policies [7][8] - Key real estate developers to focus on include China Merchants Shekou, Poly Developments, Binjiang Group, China Resources Land, Greentown China, Yuexiu Property, and Jindi Group, as well as regional state-owned enterprises like Waigaoqiao and Pudong Jinqiao [7] Summary by Sections Market Performance - On September 25, both the CSI 300 Index and the real estate sector closed higher, with the CSI 300 Index rising by 1.5% and the Shenwan Real Estate Index increasing by 1.7%. The residential development, commercial real estate, industrial real estate, and property management sectors saw increases of 2.3%, 1.9%, 2.5%, and 2.2% respectively [2] Individual Stock Performance - The top five gainers in the real estate sector were Financial Street, Shiyong Zhaoye, Wantong Development, Sunshine Holdings, and Hefei Urban Construction, with gains of 10.04%, 10.01%, 9.98%, 9.94%, and 9.94% respectively. The top five losers were China Communications Construction, Binjiang Group, I Love My Home, China Merchants Shekou, and Shahe Shares, with declines of -9.96%, -2.81%, -1.75%, -0.83%, and -0.43% respectively [3][11] Transaction Data - The total number of transactions for the week reached 5,978 units, a week-on-week increase of 506.9%. The increase was 340.1% for first-tier cities, 446.6% for second-tier cities, and 1,207.3% for third-tier cities. The total transaction area was 551,000 square meters, up 510.6% from the previous week [4][14] Industry News - The notice from the Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau of Qiqihar states that individuals transferring self-used properties that have been owned for more than five years and are the only family residence will be temporarily exempt from personal income tax. Additionally, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development plans to update over 40,000 old residential elevators in 2024 [5] Company Announcements - Wantong Development announced that it will purchase 60.16% of Source Photonics Holdings (Cayman) Limited in cash, with the first payment of $154 million (including tax) accounting for 51% of the total transaction price [6] Individual Stock Valuation - The report provides a ranking of key real estate companies based on their price-to-book (PB) ratios, with China Communications Construction at 5.10, followed by Beijing Investment Development at 2.09, and Lujiazui at 1.63 [16]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the express delivery industry, indicating an expected growth of over 20% relative to the market benchmark index in the next six months [59]. Core Viewpoints - The express delivery industry is expected to see total demand exceed expectations, with cumulative parcel volume surpassing 100 billion pieces in August 2024. The average selling price (ASP) decline is narrowing, and there are high expectations for price increases in the industry [3][12]. - Key companies recommended for investment include ZTO Express, Yunda Express, and YTO Express, which are expected to benefit from strategic shifts towards quality parcels and improved profitability [3][12]. Summary by Sections Business Flow - In August 2024, the total retail sales in China reached 3.9 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.1%. The online retail sales of physical goods were 1.0 trillion yuan, up 0.9% year-on-year, with an online shopping penetration rate of 26.0%, down 0.3 percentage points year-on-year [12][15]. Volume - The express delivery volume for the first eight months of 2024 reached 108.8 billion pieces, with August alone seeing 14.38 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 19.5%. The growth rate remains moderate, with intercity deliveries up 30.5% year-on-year [15][19]. - In August 2024, the express delivery volumes by region were 103.8 billion in the East, 26.6 billion in the Central, and 13.5 billion in the West, with year-on-year growth rates of 23.7%, 40.0%, and 54.6% respectively [22][27]. Price - The average price of express delivery services in August 2024 was 7.93 yuan, a decrease of 0.96 yuan (-10.8%) year-on-year. Prices in the East, Central, and West regions were 8.23, 6.43, and 8.64 yuan respectively, with year-on-year declines of 9.0%, 12.1%, and 21.1% [29][31]. Competitive Landscape - In August 2024, major players like SF Express, Yunda, Shentong, and YTO achieved parcel volumes of 10.4, 19.7, 19.4, and 22.6 billion pieces respectively, with market shares of 7.3%, 13.7%, 13.5%, and 15.7% [41][43]. - The single ticket revenue for these companies was 15.67, 1.99, 2.00, and 2.14 yuan respectively, with year-on-year declines of 5.3%, 8.3%, 4.8%, and 7.1% [43].

Group 1 - The report highlights the significant seasonal effect of the National Day holiday on the A-share market, indicating a tendency for the market to weaken before the holiday and strengthen afterward, with a notable "V" shaped recovery in the last trading day before the holiday [6][9][13] - The analysis of the market performance from 2010 to 2023 shows that the average return in October for Wind All A is 2%, with a win rate of 57%, suggesting a strong "Red October" trend [22][23] - The report identifies that the consumer sector performs well before the holiday, while the financial sector is expected to outperform in the days following the holiday, particularly in the T+10 period [15][16] Group 2 - The report discusses the impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts on A-share preferences, noting that value stocks tend to outperform during recessionary rate cuts, while growth stocks perform better during preventive cuts [3][22] - It is observed that after the Fed's rate cuts, there is a trend shift from large-cap to small-cap stocks, and from financials to technology and manufacturing sectors [3][22] - The report suggests that in the context of the current economic environment, there are opportunities in sectors such as technology manufacturing and innovative pharmaceuticals, particularly in the fourth quarter [3][22] Group 3 - The report emphasizes the importance of valuation switching, particularly in the financial and real estate sectors, which have shown strong performance in the fourth quarter historically [30][34] - It notes that the conditions for valuation switching are well established in sectors like financials, construction materials, and home appliances, which are expected to outperform [30][34] - The report also highlights that the market's focus tends to shift towards next year's earnings forecasts after the release of quarterly reports, influencing stock pricing and valuation adjustments [34][36]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [10] Core Viewpoints - The report suggests that the initiation of a global interest rate cut cycle may open up space for domestic interest rate reductions, potentially leading to a release of housing demand. The ongoing improvement in global liquidity and continuous easing of real estate policies are highlighted as key factors [8] Summary by Sections Market Performance - On September 24, both the Shanghai Composite Index and the real estate sector closed higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 4.3% and the Shenwan Real Estate Index increasing by 2.3%. The residential development, commercial real estate, industrial real estate, and property management sectors saw increases of 2.3%, 1.9%, 2.5%, and 2.2% respectively [2] Individual Stock Performance - The top five gainers in the real estate sector included Sunshine Holdings (10.32%), Shiyong Zhaoye (10.05%), New Huangpu (8.04%), China Communications Construction (7.21%), and Financial Street (5.75%). The top five losers were China National Trade (-1.34%), Poly Development (-0.50%), Nanjing High-Tech (-0.27%), Haitai Development (-0.17%), and Daming City (0.00%) [3] Transaction Data - A total of 2,587 units were sold this week, representing a week-on-week increase of 162.6%. The transaction area for commercial housing reached 22.6 million square meters, with a week-on-week increase of 150.9% [4] Industry News - Beike's subsidiary, Beihome, won a bid for a residential land parcel in Chengdu's Financial City for 1.08 billion yuan, with a floor price of 19,200 yuan per square meter [5] Company Announcements - Chengdu Investment Holdings announced investments in two urban village renovation projects in Minhang District, with total investments of 65 billion yuan and 118 billion yuan, respectively, and an estimated project duration of 5.5 years [6] Individual Stock Valuation - The top five real estate companies ranked by price-to-book ratio (PB) are China Communications Construction (5.67), Beijing Investment Development (1.96), Lujiazui (1.60), China Merchants Shekou (1.16), and Binjiang Group (1.06) [7] Industry Outlook - The report recommends focusing on leading real estate developers such as China Merchants Shekou, Poly Development, Binjiang Group, China Resources Land, Greentown China, and Yuexiu Property, as well as regional state-owned enterprises like Waigaoqiao and Pudong Jinqiao [8]

Group 1 - The report highlights a series of monetary and fiscal policies introduced by the Chinese government to support high-quality economic development, which are expected to stabilize the market and boost investor confidence in the fourth quarter [1][11][20] - Key monetary policies include a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, which is expected to provide approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity, and a 0.2 percentage point cut in the 7-day reverse repurchase rate, lowering it from 1.7% to 1.5% [12][13][15] - The report discusses measures to reduce existing mortgage rates to align with new loan rates, with an expected average reduction of around 0.5 percentage points, benefiting approximately 50 million households and reducing annual interest expenses by about 150 billion yuan [16][17] Group 2 - The report identifies three new monetary policy tools aimed at injecting additional funds into the capital market: 1) a stock repurchase loan program with an initial scale of 300 billion yuan at a 1.75% interest rate, 2) a swap facility for securities, funds, and insurance companies with an initial scale of 500 billion yuan, and 3) ongoing research into a stabilization fund [17][19] - Following the implementation of these policies, the market showed significant recovery, with the ChiNext Index rising by 5.54% and the Wind All A Index increasing by 4.03% on September 24 [20][21] - Investment recommendations include focusing on sectors that are expected to benefit from improved market liquidity and risk appetite, such as technology-related industries, real estate, and consumer sectors like home appliances and automobiles [24]

Group 1 - The report highlights a significant financial policy initiative aimed at supporting the real economy and boosting confidence in the capital markets, particularly the A-share market, which is expected to enter a period of recovery [1][6][10] - Key measures include a reduction in the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points, which is expected to inject approximately 1 trillion yuan into the financial market, and a decrease in the 7-day reverse repurchase rate from 1.7% to 1.5% [6][10] - The report emphasizes the introduction of new monetary policy tools to support the stock market, including a swap facility for securities, funds, and insurance companies, allowing them to exchange less liquid assets for more liquid government bonds [7][9] Group 2 - The report discusses the ongoing institutional improvements in the capital market, with the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) set to release measures to promote mergers and acquisitions and guidelines for market capitalization management [10][12] - The CSRC's initiatives aim to enhance the efficiency of the merger and acquisition market and encourage traditional industries to consolidate, thereby increasing market stability and supporting high-quality development [10][12] - The report notes that effective market capitalization management is crucial for improving investor returns and maintaining market stability, which is expected to bolster investor confidence [12]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Zhongke Lanxun with a "Buy" rating, citing its strong position in the white-label audio SoC market and potential for growth in emerging markets [4][78] Core Views - Zhongke Lanxun is a leading domestic white-label audio SoC manufacturer, leveraging the RISC-V instruction set to achieve cost advantages and high product competitiveness [1] - The company has successfully penetrated emerging markets like India and Africa, with overseas shipments accounting for 60-70% of total shipments [2] - Zhongke Lanxun has diversified its product portfolio to meet the growing demand for smart wearable devices and IoT, with eight major product lines [3] - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue and net profit growth from 2024 to 2026, driven by the recovery of the consumer electronics market and expansion into new application areas [4] Financial Performance and Valuation - In 2023, Zhongke Lanxun reported revenue of 1.447 billion yuan, a 34% YoY increase, and net profit of 252 million yuan, a 79% YoY increase [4] - The company's revenue is projected to grow to 1.810 billion yuan in 2024, 2.351 billion yuan in 2025, and 2.841 billion yuan in 2026, with net profit expected to reach 300 million yuan, 385 million yuan, and 459 million yuan, respectively [4] - The current PE valuation for 2024-2026 is 19x, 15x, and 12x, which is lower than the industry average of 40x, 28x, and 21x [78] Market and Industry Analysis - The global Bluetooth headset market is expected to grow from 144 billion yuan in 2023 to 315.3 billion yuan by 2030, with a CAGR of 11.7% [31] - The global Bluetooth speaker market is projected to grow from 16.58 billion USD in 2021 to 33.4 billion USD by 2026, with a CAGR of 15.04% [34] - The global smart wearable device market is expected to grow from 120.54 billion USD in 2023 to 1,415.26 billion USD by 2032, with a CAGR of 31.5% [36] Product and Technology - Zhongke Lanxun's product lines include Bluetooth headset chips, Bluetooth speaker chips, smart wearable chips, wireless microphone chips, digital audio chips, toy voice chips, AIoT chips, and AI voice recognition chips [59] - The company has developed the "Lanxun Xunlong" series of high-end chips, which have achieved performance levels close to industry leaders in key technical indicators such as Bluetooth RF performance, noise reduction, and power consumption [67] - Zhongke Lanxun's RISC-V-based architecture reduces costs by avoiding third-party IP fees, enhancing the overall cost-performance ratio of its products [1][45] Strategic Expansion - Zhongke Lanxun has established partnerships with well-known brands in India and Africa, such as boAt and Noise, and its products are used in realme Buds Wireless 3, which is sold on Amazon India [2][48] - The company is expanding its presence in the brand customer market, with its "Xunlong" series chips being adopted by major brands like Xiaomi, realme, and Baidu [71] - Zhongke Lanxun is also focusing on the AIoT market, with its AIoT SoC chip market expected to grow from 95 billion yuan in 2022 to 279.36 billion yuan by 2027 [65]

epyTtropeR_elbaT|tsriF_elbaT Tabl e_First|Tabl e_Summar y 华福证券 宏 观 研 究 金融支持经济高质量发展发布会解读 多措并举齐发力、支持经济提信心 事件： 2024年9月24日,国新办举行新闻发布会,介绍金融支持经济高质量发展有 关情况，并推出金融政策组合拳。 投资要点： 宏 观 事 件 点 评 本次金融政策组合拳，对支持实体经济提振资本市场信心具有重要意义： 一是降准降息、降低存量房贷利率、统一房贷最低首付比例等政策，对稳 定房地产市场支持实体经济高质量发展有积极支撑作用。二是创设新的货 币政策工具支持股票市场，以及发布中长期资金入市的政策意见，将构建 起耐心资本入市的长效机制，能够形成中长期资金持续流入的循环。三是 资本市场制度性建设持续推进，证监会即将发布的促进并购重组措施、上 市公司市值管理指引等相关政策，将不断完善相关领域制度细节，切实增 强资本市场内在稳定性。 金融支持实体经济力度不断增强。一是下调存款准备金率0.5个百分点， 年内还将视情况可能择机进一步下调0.25-0.5个百分点；同时下降7天期 逆回购操作利率0.2个百分点，后续ML ...

华福证券 银行 金融政策"大礼包"落地，影响几何？ 投资要点： 存量房贷利率调降靴子落地，政策力度符合预期 本次降低存量房贷利率调降落地，短期来看，将对银行净息差造成一 定冲击。根据我们的测算，本次存量房贷利率调整 50bp，对上市银行整体 净息差负向影响约为 6bp。从净利润角度看，若存量房贷利率从 2024Q3 末 调降，将负向影响上市银行 2024 年全年利润增速 2 个百分点左右。 但长期来看，存量房贷利率调整有望缓解居民提前还贷现象，利好银 行信贷结构和资产质量。从信贷投放上看，存量按揭利率调降抹平了存量 按揭贷款和新发生按揭贷款的利差，居民提前还款的动力减弱，银行按揭 贷款规模有望企稳回升。按揭贷款久期长、信用成本低，仍然是银行优质 资产，存量按揭贷款的保有可以有效缓解银行资产再投放的压力。 团队成员 分析师： 张宇(S0210524050005) zy30521@hfzq.com.cn 分析师： 郭其伟(S0210523080001) gqw30259@hfzq.com.cn 分析师： 付思雨(S0210524080005) fsy30287@hfzq.com.cn 相关报告 1、日本 90 年 ...

华福证券 房地产 2024 年 09 月 24 日 बार 研 房地产 降存量利率落地，一揽子政策提振预期 投资要点： 事件：国新办 9 月 24 日举办发布会，介绍金融支持经济高质量发展有 关情况并答记者问，有关地产行业的政策与影响梳理如下。 降存量房贷利率至新发放房贷利率附近 政策提出：将引导商业银行将存量房贷利率降至新发放利率附近， 平均降幅在 50bp。 上一轮存量利率调降在 23 年 9 月，但下调范围和力度均有限，一 方面只针对首套房贷款，另一方面调降后利率也未与新增贷款利率拉 平。本次调降前，存量房贷利率下调呼声较高，部分房主为减轻因高 利率房贷所产生的月供压力，存在二手房抛售行为，造成二手房交易 持续呈现"以价换量"的格局。 我们认为，本次存量房贷调降，一方面切实减轻居民月供成本， 随着房贷利率和租售比差距收缩，成为楼市筑底企稳信号；另一方面 有望加速改善二手房抛压，大幅改善二手房市场供需关系，加速房价 从老旧小区企稳，逐渐传递至次新房及新房，促进楼市企稳。 二套房最低首付比例由 25%下调至 15% 政策提出：将全国层面的二套房贷最低首付比例由 25%下调到 15%，统一首套房和二套房的房贷 ...