epyTtropeR_elbaT|tsriF_elbaT Table_Fi rst|Ta ble_Re portDa te 策略定期研究 2024 年 12 月 12 日 策 略 定 期 研 究 策 略 研 究 Table_Fi rst|Ta ble_Su mmary 华福证券 市场热点探析 A 股跨年行情特征及规律 ➢ 摘要 每逢临近岁末年初节点，投资者往往会较多讨论A股市场跨年行情特征， 为此我们统计了2010年以来A股市场岁末年初行情以及公募基金持仓特 征，以供投资者参考，具体如下： 总体来看，2010年以来大部分宽基指数表现最好的月份主要集中在岁末或 者年初。如果用wind全A指数作为衡量A股市场表现的基准，可以看到岁末 年初A股市场总体表现较为亮眼，其中2010年来wind全A在11月单月涨幅的 中位数2.1%，为全年次高月份，2月单月涨幅的中位数2.8%，为全年最高 点。可以看到，其他主要宽基指数表现最好的月份同样主要集中在岁末年 初。 从行业表现看，岁末食饮、纺织服饰、家电等表现居前，而国防军工、基 础化工、钢铁行业表现靠后，年初往往存在反转效应。具体看，2010年来 岁末月份（11-12月）， ...

华福证券 电子 2024 年 12 月 11 日 OpenAI 发布季重磅不断，AI 行业迎来新纪元- 算力周跟踪 投资要点： 本周美股普遍低迷，云计算板块谷歌强势上涨。（1）GPU/CPU：本 周（1209-1211）AMD-7.83%，英伟达-5.17%，英特尔-3.63%。美东时间周 一，美国银行将 AMD 的评级由"买入"下调至"中性"，造成 AMD 股价 大跌；根据财联社 12/9 报道，英伟达涉嫌违反反垄断法，市场监管总局依 法对英伟达公司开展立案调查。（2）云计算板块：谷歌+6.11%，甲骨文 -7.28%。谷歌于 12/10 推出了最新的量子芯片"Willow"，实现重大技术突 破；甲骨文第二财季营收及本财季业绩指引不及预期。（3）先进封装板块： 甬矽电子+4.64%，较上周大幅下跌后有所回升。 OpenAI 发布季重磅不断，AI 行业迎来新纪元。太平洋时间 12/5（北 京时间 12/6），OpenAI 正式开启为期 12 天的新品发布季。截至今日，已 进行 4 场直播发布会，详见图表 9。 团队成员 分析师： 陈海进(S0210524060003) chj30590@hfzq.com.cn ...

华福证券 证券研究报告|行业专题研究 休闲食品 行业评级 强于大市（首次评级） 2024年12月11日 | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | | | | 休闲零食行业专题 | | | | 从渠道变革看休闲零食行业发展 | | | | 证券分析师： 刘畅 执业证书编号： S0210523050001 张东雪 执业证书编号： S0210523060001 研究助理： 李妍冰 | 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 华福证券 投资要点 ➢ 我国休闲零食行业分散，品类之间集中度差异较大，部分品类已形成龙头，但本土综合龙头尚未形成。我国本土企业在烘焙等品类上虽占据了头部主 导地位，但在巧克力、饼干果干等偏西式的品类上，外资企业仍相对领先，中西式壁垒尚未打开。由于我国人口和面积庞大，区域间经济水平、口味 差异较大，在信息流通快的时代、复制成本较低的行业里，打造 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the electronic industry [1]. Core Insights - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a resurgence, driven by AI and smart terminal innovations, with significant sales growth recorded in Q3 2024, marking the highest growth rate since 2016 [3][31]. - The report highlights the ongoing U.S. technology blockade against China, which is expected to accelerate the domestic semiconductor industry's progress towards self-sufficiency [3][61]. - AI applications are expanding across cloud and terminal devices, leading to comprehensive upgrades in hardware solutions, with traditional and innovative devices seeing increased market penetration [4][70]. Summary by Sections 1. 2024 Electronic Industry Review - The SW electronic index outperformed major indices, with a year-to-date increase of 17.76% as of November 28, 2024 [9]. - The electronic industry ranked fifth among 31 sectors in terms of performance, with notable growth in sub-sectors such as semiconductor equipment and digital chip design [9][12]. 2. Semiconductor: Industry Recovery and Self-Sufficiency - Global semiconductor sales reached $166 billion in Q3 2024, a 23.2% year-on-year increase, with predictions for continued double-digit growth through 2025 [31][32]. - Major players like TSMC and SMIC reported record revenues in Q3 2024, indicating strong industry performance [37][40]. - The report emphasizes the importance of capital expenditure in semiconductor manufacturing, with significant investments expected in the coming years [51][52]. 3. AI: Cloud and Terminal Hardware Upgrades - The demand for AI servers is surging, with a projected market value of $187 billion in 2024, reflecting a 69% growth rate [76]. - AI applications are driving hardware upgrades across various devices, including AI PCs, smartphones, and IoT devices, with significant growth expected in the AI-enabled consumer electronics market [105][130]. - The report notes the rapid development of AI smart glasses and headphones, which are becoming integral to the AI ecosystem [151][172]. 4. Investment Recommendations - For the semiconductor sector, the report suggests focusing on companies like SMIC, Hua Hong Semiconductor, and Changdian Technology, among others, due to their strong growth potential [182]. - In the AI segment, it recommends monitoring companies involved in AI server hardware and the HBM supply chain, as well as those producing AI-enabled consumer electronics [185].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Insights - The company, Xianglou New Materials, is a leading player in the domestic precision stamping special steel market, focusing on automotive and industrial applications. It is expected to benefit from stable demand in the automotive sector and has established long-term partnerships with major clients [3][4]. - The company is projected to achieve steady revenue growth, with expected revenues of 1.5 billion, 1.82 billion, and 2.06 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 10%, 22%, and 13% [4][5]. - The company is the only listed precision stamping materials company in China, which provides it with unique advantages in technology and cost, positioning it well for market expansion [4][5]. Company Overview - Xianglou New Materials specializes in precision stamping new materials and has been deeply involved in the automotive parts sector since 2009. The company focuses on customized solutions for high-end metal materials [9][17]. - The company has a stable shareholding structure, with the actual controller holding 26.17% of the shares [9]. Production Capacity and Expansion - The company is expected to have a production capacity of approximately 180,000 tons in 2024, with a new plant in Anhui set to be completed by the end of 2024, adding 40,000 tons of capacity [3][4][20]. - The production capacity utilization rate has remained high, with a forecasted utilization rate of 101% for 2024-2026 [4][20]. Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 1.353 billion yuan in 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 11.69%. The net profit for the same year was 201 million yuan, reflecting a significant increase of 42% [5][27]. - The gross profit margin reached a record high of 25.36% in 2023, with a net profit margin of 14.83% [31][32]. Market Demand and Trends - The demand for precision stamping materials in the automotive sector is expected to grow, with projections indicating a need for 908,000 tons and 1,050,000 tons in 2024 and 2025, respectively [4][86]. - The report highlights the increasing penetration of new energy vehicles, which is expected to accelerate the domestic substitution of precision stamping materials [80][86]. Competitive Landscape - The company holds a market share of approximately 14.8% in the domestic precision stamping materials market, with a focus on expanding its market presence through strategic partnerships and technological advancements [113][114]. - The competitive landscape is stable, with the company positioned to enhance its market share through ongoing capacity expansion and customer acquisition efforts [104][113].

epyTtropeR_elbaT|tsriF_elbaT 华福证券 Tabl e_First|Tabl e_Summary 宏 观 研 究 外贸数据点评 \出口持续保持韧劲 行业名 事件： 12月10日，海关总署公布数据，以美元计价，中国11月出口同比增长6.7% 至3123.1亿美元，进口同比减少3.9%至2148.7亿美元。贸易顺差974.4亿美 元，仍在增长。 投资要点： 11月份，我国对主要出口目的地出口同比增速略有回落。11月份我国对美 国出口金额为473.1亿美元，同比增长8%，增速较10月份下降0.1个百分点。 11月份我国对欧盟出口同比增加7.2%，增速较10月份回落5.5个百分点。我 国对日本出口同比增加6.4%，增速较10月份回落0.4个百分点。我国对东盟 出口总额为537亿美元，同比增加14.9%，增速较10月份回落0.9个百分点。 从对11月出口增速的贡献来看，我国对主要出口目的地出口对增速的贡献 与10月基本持平。我国对日本和东盟出口对11月出口增速的贡献分别为0.3 和2.4个百分点，与10月份持平。对美国出口对11月出口增速的贡献为1.2 个百分点，较10月份回落0.1个百分点。 ...

Industry Rating - The report maintains a "Stronger than Market" rating for the environmental protection industry [1] Core Views - The report highlights the importance of energy conservation, carbon reduction, and emission reduction in the environmental protection industry, with a focus on the development of biomass energy and the promotion of circular economy [4] - The report emphasizes the potential of waste-to-energy projects in overseas markets, particularly in Southeast Asia, and the need for upgrading and transformation in the domestic waste treatment sector [4] - The report also discusses the significance of water conservation and emission reduction in the water industry, with a focus on the reuse of reclaimed water [4] - The report identifies the potential of bio-jet fuel (SAF) as a key area for future development in the bio-diesel industry [4] Market Review - In the first three quarters of 2024, 48 out of 137 listed companies in the environmental protection industry achieved year-on-year growth in net profit attributable to the parent company, while 47 companies experienced a decline [4] - The report notes that the environmental protection industry's revenue, operating costs, and net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 15.69%, 20.07%, and 12.58% respectively in the third quarter of 2024 [16] Outlook for 2025 - The report predicts that the environmental protection industry will continue to focus on energy conservation, carbon reduction, and emission reduction, with the implementation of the Energy Law and the promotion of circular economy policies [4] - The report also highlights the potential for waste-to-energy projects in overseas markets, particularly in Southeast Asia, and the need for upgrading and transformation in the domestic waste treatment sector [4] Waste Treatment - The report notes that the waste-to-energy industry has entered a phase of "operation as king," with a focus on improving energy conversion efficiency and reducing carbon emissions [38] - The report also highlights the potential for waste-to-energy projects in overseas markets, particularly in Southeast Asia, and the need for upgrading and transformation in the domestic waste treatment sector [49] Water Industry - The report emphasizes the importance of water conservation and emission reduction in the water industry, with a focus on the reuse of reclaimed water [73] - The report also notes that the water industry's energy consumption and carbon emissions are mainly concentrated in the water supply and drainage sectors, with a focus on reducing electricity consumption and optimizing chemical dosing [91] Bio-Diesel Industry - The report identifies the potential of bio-jet fuel (SAF) as a key area for future development in the bio-diesel industry [102] - The report also notes that the bio-diesel industry is facing challenges due to trade protectionism in the EU, but the long-term potential for capacity optimization and market expansion remains [114] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies in the waste-to-energy, water, and bio-diesel sectors, with a particular emphasis on companies that are expanding overseas, upgrading their operations, and optimizing their capacity [137]

华福证券 超预期的表述，更坚定的信心——12 月政治局会 议学习 团队成员 分析师： 周浦寒(S0210524040007) zph30515@hfzq.com.cn 联系人： 章静嘉(S0210124080012) zjj30646@hfzq.com.cn 投资要点： 事件 中共中央政治局 12 月 9 日召开会议，分析研究 2025 年经济工作； 听取中央纪委国家监委工作汇报，研究部署 2025 年党风廉政建设和反 腐败工作。中共中央总书记习近平主持会议。 相关报告 1、Z 世代投资理财行为深度解析——2024.12.09 2、美股历史新高背后的经济博弈——2024.12.09 3、流动性驱动的股债双牛——2024.12.08 解读 超预期的表述，工作部署表述将扩内需置于首位。此次会议总体 延续 926 政治局会议的基调，同时在表述和措辞上呈现了超预期的积 极，对于各项工作的部署顺序依次为："扩大国内需求"（内需）、 "推动科技创新和产业创新融合发展"（科技&产业创新）、"稳住楼 市股市"（楼市股市）、"防范化解重点领域风险和外部冲击"（防 风险）。 本次会议中各项措辞和定调极大超出市场预期，中国资产集体 ...

华福证券 房地产 2024 年 12 月 09 日 房地产 政治局会议信号积极，稳楼市政策加速落实 投资要点： 事件： 中共中央政治局 12 月 9 日召开会议，分析研究 2025 年经济工作。 会议强调，实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，实施更加积极的财政政策 和适度宽松的货币政策。房地产相关政策方面，强调稳住楼市，防范 化解重点领域风险和外部冲击。 时隔 14 年口径调整，实施"适度宽松"的货币政策 团队成员 分析师： 陈立(S0210523080003) cl30270@hfzq.com.cn 联系人： 于怡然(S0210124060064) yyr30611@hfzq.com.cn 相关报告 1、房地产行业周报：契税减免利好落地，典型房 企单月拿地年内新高——2024.12.08 2、特朗普 1.0 时期下的地产复盘与 2.0 时期展望 ——2024.12.05 3、房地产行业周报：上海土拍市场点状回暖，百 强房企新增货值降幅收窄——2024.12.01 2008 年，受美国次贷危机引发的全球金融危机影响，我国开始采 取"适度宽松"的货币政策，在这一轮放松周期中，央行自 2008 年 9 月开启降准降息，至 ...

华福证券 华能水电（600025.SH） 雄踞西南，波澜潋光，沧浪逐风 投资要点： 华能核心水电平台，拥澜沧江干流开发权。 公司是由中国华能集团有限公司控股和管理的大型流域水电企业，统 一负责澜沧江干流水能和新能源资源开发，以澜沧江流域为主体，最大化 的配置流域资源。2023 年 9 月，公司完成华能四川公司 100%股权注入。 华能四川的泸定硬梁包水电站（装机容量 111.6 万千瓦）预计于 2024 年年 底启动首台机组，并于 2025 年 6 月完成全部投产。截至 2024 年 6 月底， 公司总装机容量 2920.32 万千瓦，在云南省装机规模第一。目前公司正在 澜沧江流域规划建设水风光一体化清洁能源基地。 新能源装机推升电量，债务结构优化显著降低成本。 2024H1，公司控股机组完成发电量 466.95 亿千瓦时，同比增加 12.15%，上网电量 462.72 亿千瓦时，同比增加 12.36%。上半年澜沧江流 域来水同比偏丰约 3 成。此外，公司新能源装机规模同比大幅提升，新能 源发电量同比大幅增加。特别是光伏发电业务营收同比增长达到 321.62%。 公司近年利用低利率资金提前置换了存量债务，进一 ...