➢ 风险提示 AI 大模型需求不及预期；下游终端出货不及预期；市场竞争加剧 风险；地缘政治风险；行业景气不及预期。 | + | | --- | 强于大市（维持评级） 一年内行业相对大盘走势 电子 2025 年 03 月 17 日 电子 存储大厂涨价，关注存储产业链 投资要点： ➢ 建议关注存储产业链重点公司： ➢ 德明利、江波龙、佰维存储、香农芯创、朗科科技、同有科技、 兆易创新、普冉股份、东芯股份、恒烁股份、聚辰股份、北京君正、 澜起科技等。 3、【华福电子】行业专题报告：智能驾驶大势所 趋，车载 CIS 蓄势待发——2025.02.17 证 券 研 究 报 告 诚信专业 发现价值 1 请务必阅读报告末页的声明 行 业 研 究 -0.20 -0.06 0.08 0.22 0.36 0.50 3/18 5/29 8/9 10/20 12/31 3/13 电子 沪深300 团队成员 | 分析师： | 杨钟(S0210522110003) | | --- | --- | | YZ3979@hfzq.com.cn | | | 分析师： | 郭其伟(S0210523080001) | | gqw30259@hfzq. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for the company, indicating that the stock is expected to perform in line with the market benchmark over the next six months [7][10]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading player in the domestic watch industry, focusing on its own brand development and precision technology to foster new growth points. It emphasizes shareholder returns through dividends [7][6]. - The traditional watch consumption market is facing challenges such as demand contraction and intensified competition, with luxury goods and discretionary spending under pressure. The report cites a significant decline in personal luxury goods sales in mainland China, particularly in the watch category, which has been impacted by increased overseas consumption [5][4]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 3.941 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.77%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 220 million yuan, down 33.86% year-on-year [3][9]. - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 37.16%, reflecting a slight increase of 0.74 percentage points year-on-year. The net profit margin was 5.59%, down 1.7 percentage points year-on-year [6][9]. - The company's retail service business for watches generated revenue of 2.935 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.4% year-on-year, while the watch brand business revenue was 722 million yuan, down 9.5% year-on-year [5][3]. Future Earnings Forecast - The report slightly lowers the company's growth rate expectations, forecasting revenue growth of 6% in 2025, 6% in 2026, and 7% in 2027. The net profit growth is projected at 8% in 2025, 7% in 2026, and 10% in 2027 [7][9]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.58 yuan in 2025, 0.62 yuan in 2026, and 0.68 yuan in 2027 [7][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the electronic industry [5] Core Insights - The storage manufacturers have announced price increases, indicating a potential recovery in storage prices. Sandisk plans to raise prices by over 10% starting April 1, 2025, reflecting the upward trend in NAND Flash wafer prices due to supply constraints and lower-than-expected inventory [9][10] - The mismatch in supply and demand is a primary driver for the increase in storage prices. Major suppliers like Micron and Samsung are reducing production, with Micron expecting a decline in NAND shipments in Q2 2025 and Samsung cutting its NAND flash output by 10%-15% [9][10] - The demand for storage is surging due to increased capital expenditures in AI, with major companies like Meta, Google, Amazon, and Microsoft projected to spend a total of $297.2 billion in 2025, a 36.8% increase year-on-year [9][10] - The widening supply-demand gap in the storage market is expected to reverse previous pessimistic forecasts, potentially leading to a new investment cycle in the storage sector [9][10] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The electronic industry index decreased by 0.62% in the week of March 10-14, 2025, while the ChiNext index rose by 0.97% and the CSI 300 index increased by 1.59% [12] - Among electronic sub-sectors, the components sector saw the highest weekly increase of 6.68%, while the semiconductor sector experienced a decline of 2.11% [14] Key Companies to Watch - The report suggests focusing on key companies in the storage supply chain, including Demingli, Jiangbolong, Baiwei Storage, Shannon Chip, Langke Technology, Tongyou Technology, Zhaoyi Innovation, Purun Co., East Chip, Hengshuo Co., Juchen Co., Beijing Junzheng, and Lankai Technology [2] Semiconductor Sector Developments - The semiconductor equipment market is projected to exceed $110 billion in total revenue in 2024, with North Huachuang rising to the sixth position among global suppliers [39] - Intel appointed a new CEO, Lip-Bu Tan, effective March 18, 2025, aiming to stabilize the company amid significant challenges [36][38] Consumer Electronics Trends - Apple is expected to see a 2% decline in iPhone sales in China in 2025, with increased competition from Android brands benefiting from government subsidies [52] - The report highlights a significant drop in Apple's wireless earphone sales in China, down 31.7%, with Xiaomi taking the lead in market share [55] Automotive Electronics Insights - Global automotive sales increased by 49% year-on-year in February 2025, reaching 1.2 million units, despite challenges from EU tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles [60] - NIO has implemented a 10% workforce reduction, primarily affecting its sales and customer service teams [62]

行 华福证券 建筑材料 2025 年 03 月 17 日 业 研 究 建筑材料 两办发文促进住房消费，建材板块有望全面受益 投资要点： 本周观点 行 业 定 期 报 告 近日，中共中央办公厅、国务院办公厅印发《提振消费专项行动方案》， 方案提出要更好满足住房消费需求，持续用力推动房地产市场止跌回稳， 加力实施城中村和危旧房改造，充分释放刚性和改善性住房需求潜力，允 许专项债券支持城市政府收购存量商品房用作保障性住房，适时降低住房 公积金贷款利率，扩大住房公积金使用范围；自然资源部、财政部发文要 求支持运用专项债券开展土地储备工作，有效推动房地产市场止跌回稳； 金融监管总局会议强调坚决做好保交房工作；2 月社会融资规模存量 417.29 万亿元，同比增长 8.2%；深圳对住房公积金贷款和利息补贴政策进行调整 优化，涉及提高贷款额度、下调首付款比例、加大利息补贴力度等多项有 力举措；昆明推广灵活就业人员参加公积金试点；无锡锡山区推出购房补 贴政策，每套最高补贴 5 万元；宁波购房缴纳契税自 3 月 10 日起调整，首 套认定标准再扩大；苏州出台"三低一宽"购房金融产品，最低首付比例 15%。短期来看：1）稳增长压 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to exceed the market benchmark index by more than 5% over the next six months [13]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a recovery in consumer expectations, driven by a comprehensive policy initiative aimed at boosting consumption across various sectors, including support for families, cultural tourism, and the promotion of new consumption patterns [2][3]. - The policy emphasizes enhancing consumer capacity through income support and optimizing the consumption environment to address key constraints on consumption [2]. Summary by Relevant Sections Policy Impact - The policy plan covers a wide range of areas, including support for families, cultural tourism, and the promotion of green and smart upgrades in durable consumer goods [2]. - Specific measures include establishing a childcare subsidy system, enhancing services for the elderly and children, and promoting the replacement of old consumer goods with new ones [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a positive outlook for the home furnishing sector, particularly with the recovery of the second-hand housing market in first-tier cities and the anticipated impact of national subsidies [3]. - Recommended companies include leading custom furniture brands such as Oppein Home, Sophia, and Zhihong Home, as well as soft furniture leaders like Mousse and Gujia Home [3]. - In the packaging sector, the report recommends focusing on 3C packaging leader Yutong Technology due to improved demand in the supply chain [3]. - For the cultural and personal care sectors, the report highlights Morning Glory as a leading cultural brand and suggests attention to diaper manufacturer Haoyue Care [3]. High-Growth Segments - The report identifies high-growth segments such as new consumption-related IP, toys, smart glasses, and e-cigarettes, recommending companies like Blukoo and Mingyue Optical [3]. - It also continues to recommend dental care leader Dengkang Dental, which is expected to see sustained growth due to its high-value products and effective channel strategies [3]. - The outdoor sports sector is highlighted for its demand growth, with recommendations for companies like Zhejiang Nature and Anta Sports [3].

Group 1 - The report highlights concerns over a potential economic recession in the US, driven by weak labor market data and PMI figures, alongside the impact of escalating tariffs under Trump's policies, leading to a significant decline in major US stock indices, with the Nasdaq down over 11% since late February [2][8][9] - The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February showed a year-on-year rate of 2.8%, the lowest since November, and a month-on-month rate of 0.2%, the lowest since October, indicating a potential easing of inflationary pressures and increasing the likelihood of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in June [2][8][9] - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is crucial, as market participants are keen to see if Chairman Powell will signal a dovish stance, which could help stabilize market sentiment amid ongoing uncertainties [2][8][9] Group 2 - The report tracks global asset performance, noting that COMEX silver (+4.79%) and NYMEX platinum (+4.51%) had the highest gains, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (-3.07%) and Nasdaq Composite (-2.43%) experienced significant declines [3][30] - In the equity markets, the Shanghai Composite Index (+1.39%) and Shenzhen Component Index (+1.24%) showed positive performance, contrasting with declines in major US indices [33][38] - The report indicates that the energy sector in the US saw the largest gains (+2.79%), while the communications services sector faced the steepest losses (-3.68%) [38]

华福证券 石化运输周报（2025.3.10-2025.3.16）：中型油轮运价持 续改善，VLCC 运价维持相对高位 投资要点： 油运市场：2025 年第十一周，原油轮方面，VLCC 型船 TCE 均值 3.8 万美元/日，环比下降 2.0%，同比下降 21.3%；苏伊士型船 TCE 均 值 4.5 万美元/日，环比上升 20.9%，同比上升 18.9%；阿芙拉型船 TCE 均值 2.7 万美元/日，环比下降 5.9%，同比下降 35.2%。成品油轮方面， LR2 型船 TCE 均值 3.0 万美元/日，环比上升 12.9%，同比下降 48.2%； LR1 型船 TCE 均值 2.3 万美元/日，环比上升 19.0%，同比下降 47.8%； MR 型船大西洋一篮子 TCE 均值 1.9 万美元/日，环比上升 5.3%，同比 下降 54.0%；MR 型船太平洋一篮子 TCE 均值 2.2 万美元/日，环比下降 0.9%，同比下降 42.2%。 LNG 市场：2025 年第十一周，17.4 万立方米型船即期运价 23750 美元/日，环比上涨 6.7%，同比下降 59.5%；16 万立方米型船即期运价 13500 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [6] Core Viewpoints - The oil transportation market shows mixed trends with VLCC rates under pressure due to slow cargo release and excess tonnage, while medium-sized tanker rates are improving. The market sentiment is supported by OPEC+'s plan to increase oil production in April [7][8] - The LNG market is experiencing a slight increase in spot rates for certain vessel types, but year-on-year comparisons show significant declines [3][4] Summary by Sections Oil Transportation Market - In the week of March 10-16, 2025, the BDTI composite index averaged 909.2 points, up 3.1% week-on-week but down 23.9% year-on-year. VLCC TCE averaged $38,329/day, down 2.0% week-on-week and down 21.3% year-on-year [10] - Suezmax TCE averaged $44,715/day, up 20.9% week-on-week and up 18.9% year-on-year. Aframax TCE averaged $27,030/day, down 5.9% week-on-week and down 35.2% year-on-year [10] - The medium-sized tanker market is seeing steady recovery, particularly in the Mediterranean routes, while the product tanker market is benefiting from increased demand in Middle East-Japan and Middle East-Europe routes [7][19] LNG Transportation Market - In the same week, spot rates for 174,000 cubic meter LNG carriers averaged $23,750/day, up 6.7% week-on-week but down 59.5% year-on-year. For 160,000 cubic meter vessels, the rate was $13,500/day, up 12.5% week-on-week but down 71.8% year-on-year [3][37] - The LNG market in China reported a price of 4,449 RMB/ton, down 1.9% week-on-week but up 8.6% year-on-year. The import volume of LNG in December 2024 was 7.14 million tons, up 16.9% month-on-month but down 15.0% year-on-year [43][48] Demand Side - As of March 14, 2025, Brent and WTI crude oil prices were $71.6 and $66.7 per barrel, respectively, with slight declines from the previous week. The U.S. crude oil production in January 2025 was 13 million barrels/day, down 4.4% month-on-month but up 3.5% year-on-year [23][24] - China's crude oil imports in December 2024 were 47.84 million tons, down 1.4% month-on-month and down 1.1% year-on-year [25] Supply Side - As of December 2024, the total oil tanker fleet was 669 million deadweight tons, up 0.6% year-on-year. The VLCC fleet size was 279 million deadweight tons, remaining stable year-on-year [35] - The LNG fleet totaled 120.1 million cubic meters as of November 2024, up 6.8% year-on-year, with the 17,000-20,000 cubic meter segment growing by 2% [49]

业 研 究 建筑材料 两办发文促进住房消费，建材板块有望全面受益 投资要点： 本周观点 行 业 定 期 报 告 近日，中共中央办公厅、国务院办公厅印发《提振消费专项行动方案》， 方案提出要更好满足住房消费需求，持续用力推动房地产市场止跌回稳， 加力实施城中村和危旧房改造，充分释放刚性和改善性住房需求潜力，允 许专项债券支持城市政府收购存量商品房用作保障性住房，适时降低住房 公积金贷款利率，扩大住房公积金使用范围；自然资源部、财政部发文要 求支持运用专项债券开展土地储备工作，有效推动房地产市场止跌回稳； 金融监管总局会议强调坚决做好保交房工作；2 月社会融资规模存量 417.29 万亿元，同比增长 8.2%；深圳对住房公积金贷款和利息补贴政策进行调整 优化，涉及提高贷款额度、下调首付款比例、加大利息补贴力度等多项有 力举措；昆明推广灵活就业人员参加公积金试点；无锡锡山区推出购房补 贴政策，每套最高补贴 5 万元；宁波购房缴纳契税自 3 月 10 日起调整，首 套认定标准再扩大；苏州出台"三低一宽"购房金融产品，最低首付比例 15%。短期来看：1）稳增长压力下，4 月政治局会议前仍为地产政策窗口 期；2）万科风险 ...

行 华福证券 机械设备 2025 年 03 月 16 日 业 研 究 机械设备 3C 设备周观点：关注 3C 设备在机器人组装生产 环节的应用 投资要点： 3C 设备在机器人组装生产环节应用空间广阔 行 业 定 期 报 告 马斯克表示，人形机器人原型很容易，但批量生产很难。Figure AI 的 CEO Brett Adcock 表示，人形机器人的组装更类似于消费电子产品 而不是汽车。我们认为，人形机器人与消费电子产品的生产过程有相 似的要求，部分 3C 设备公司在人形机器人的组装生产环节已有相关布 局： 博众精工：在人形机器人生产组装及其核心零部件领域，公司已 有布局； 天准科技：公司正针对人形机器人行业推广公司的首款具身智能 控制器——星智 001； 强瑞技术：公司正积极布局与机器人相关的核心零部件产品(如核 心关节)及检测设备等业务，并正在与潜在客户进行方案对接及送样； 博杰股份：公司参股 24%尔智机器人，尔智机器人是一家工业机 器人研发商； 凌云光：公司的 FZMot 卢大炜 ion 智能光学运动捕捉系统可服务 于具身智能的动作训练、数据采集与处理、模拟仿真等，是具身智能 训练中的关键数据； 奥普特 ...