Investment Rating - Buy (First Rating) with a target price of 18.92 RMB [1] Core Views - The company is a low-cost, high-quality thermal coal enterprise with long mineable years and cost advantages [4] - The company has strong financials with ample cash on hand, optimized debt structure, and declining financial expense ratio [4] - Significant potential for asset injection from its parent company, Jineng Group, which is the second-largest coal enterprise in China [4] - The company's valuation is relatively low compared to peers, making it an attractive investment [106] Company Overview - The company, formerly known as Datong Coal, was renamed Jinkong Coal in December 2020 and is primarily engaged in coal production and sales [15] - It is backed by Jineng Group, the largest coal enterprise in Shanxi and the second-largest in China, with abundant coal resources [16] - The company's coal quality is excellent, with low ash, low sulfur, and high calorific value, making it suitable for power generation, cement, and building materials industries [15] - The company benefits from a strategic location near major railway lines and ports, facilitating coal transportation [15] Operational Highlights - The company's coal business accounts for over 95% of total revenue and 98% of gross profit, with non-coal businesses (e.g., activated carbon) contributing minimally [20] - The company's main mines, Tashan and Selian, have mineable years of 59 and 46 years, respectively, ensuring long-term resource stability [21] - Tashan Mine, with an annual capacity of 26.5 million tons, is the company's primary profit contributor, accounting for 76.4% of total coal production and 75.9% of sales in 2023 [25] - The company's coal cost per ton is among the lowest in the industry, driven by the scale and efficiency of Tashan Mine [22] Financial Performance - The company's revenue in 2023 was 15.34 billion RMB, a decrease of 4.6% YoY, mainly due to a 13.7% decline in coal prices [32] - Net profit in 2023 was 3.30 billion RMB, an increase of 8.4% YoY, driven by cost control and declining financial expenses [57] - The company's debt structure has improved significantly, with short-term debt decreasing by 100% YoY in Q3 2024 and financial expense ratio declining to 0.4% [63] - The company's dividend payout ratio has been increasing, reaching 40.1% in 2023, with further room for growth as asset quality improves [76] Asset Injection Potential - The company's parent group, Jineng Group, has a total coal production capacity of 450 million tons per year, while the company's capacity is only 34.5 million tons, representing a low asset securitization rate of 7.7% [4] - Jineng Group has committed to injecting high-quality coal assets into the company, with a focus on assets that meet profitability and compliance standards [97] - The company has sufficient cash flow and a declining debt-to-asset ratio, positioning it well to acquire additional high-quality assets [97] Valuation and Investment Recommendation - The company's 2024-2026 revenue growth is projected to be -1.5%, +2.7%, and +2.7%, respectively, with net profit growth of -12.0%, +9.0%, and +6.9% [100] - The company's PE ratio is lower than its peers, with a 2025E PE of 7.6x, compared to the industry average of 10.0x [106] - Based on a 10x PE valuation for 2025, the target price is set at 18.92 RMB, with a "Buy" rating [106]

华福证券 乘风破浪，行则将至——2024 年中央经济工作会 议学习 团队成员 分析师： 周浦寒(S0210524040007) zph30515@hfzq.com.cn 联系人： 章静嘉(S0210124080012) zjj30646@hfzq.com.cn 投资要点： 事件 中央经济工作会议 12 月 11 日至 12 日在北京举行。习近平在重要 讲话中总结 2024 年经济工作，分析当前经济形势，部署 2025 年经济 工作。李强作总结讲话，对贯彻落实习近平总书记重要讲话精神、做 好明年经济工作提出要求。 相关报告 1、A 股跨年行情特征及规律——2024.12.12 2、超预期的表述，更坚定的信心——12 月政治 局会议学习——2024.12.10 3、Z 世代投资理财行为深度解析——2024.12.09 解读 本次会议整体上延续了 12 月 9 日召开的政治局会议的基调，但在 方向上更为具体，且相较于 2023 年增添了不少细节，可操作性更强。 会议表现出对于未来经济发展的积极信心，同时坦然面对经济运 行中出现的问题和困难，高度重视以扩大内需应对不确定的外部形势， 在工作部署中将扩大内需置于首位。会 ...

epyTtropeR_elbaT|tsriF_elbaT 宏 观 研 究 Tabl e_First|Tabl e_Summar y 华福证券 Tabl e_First|Tabl e_R eportD ate 宏观事件点评 2024 年 12 月 12 日 中央经济工作会议七大政策信号学习解读 事件： 中央经济工作会议12月11日至12日在北京举行，习近平在重要讲话中总结 2024年经济工作，分析当前经济形势，部署2025年经济工作，李强作总结 讲话，对贯彻落实习近平总书记重要讲话精神，做好明年经济工作提出要 求。 宏 观 事 件 点 评 投资要点： 我们认为，此次中央经济工作会议释放了重要的政策信号，为明年中国经 济发展指明了方向，其中尤为值得关注的重磅信号包括：一是要保持经济 稳定增长，包括就业、物价、国际收支、居民收入等多个指标。二是"适 度宽松货币政策"与"更加积极财政政策"相结合，超常规逆周期调节力 度凸显。三是重点提出要大力提振消费，实施提振消费专项行动。四是要 求提高投资效益，更大力度支持两重项目。五是提出开展人工智能+行 动，引领新质生产力发展。六是要求综合整治内卷式竞争，规范地方政府 和企业行 ...

华福证券 房地产 落实地产政策组合拳，持续推进止跌回稳 投资要点： 事件： 中央经济工作会议于 12 月 11 日至 12 日在北京举行，习近平总书记发表重 要讲话，总结 2024 年经济工作并部署 2025 年经济工作。 财政政策更加积极，货币政策适度宽松 本次会议明确，实施更加积极的财政政策与适当宽松的货币政策。财政政 策上，明确增加地方政府专项债发行使用。在今年 10 月 12 日"加大逆周 期调节力度"发布会中，财政部提出用好专项债收储存量房、存量土地。 货币政策上，本次会议明确将适时降准降息。 我们认为，财政政策与货币政策延续 12 月 9 日政治局会议的定调，2025 年专项债收储存量房、存量闲置土地或将持续推进落地，房贷利率或仍存 在下降空间。 团队成员 分析师： 陈立(S0210523080003) cl30270@hfzq.com.cn 联系人： 于怡然(S0210124060064) yyr30611@hfzq.com.cn 相关报告 1、房地产行业动态点评：政治局会议信号积极， 稳楼市政策加速落实——2024.12.09 2、房地产行业周报：契税减免利好落地，典型房 企单月拿地年内新高— ...

epyTtropeR_elbaT|tsriF_elbaT Table_Fi rst|Ta ble_Re portDa te 策略定期研究 2024 年 12 月 12 日 策 略 定 期 研 究 策 略 研 究 Table_Fi rst|Ta ble_Su mmary 华福证券 市场热点探析 A 股跨年行情特征及规律 ➢ 摘要 每逢临近岁末年初节点，投资者往往会较多讨论A股市场跨年行情特征， 为此我们统计了2010年以来A股市场岁末年初行情以及公募基金持仓特 征，以供投资者参考，具体如下： 总体来看，2010年以来大部分宽基指数表现最好的月份主要集中在岁末或 者年初。如果用wind全A指数作为衡量A股市场表现的基准，可以看到岁末 年初A股市场总体表现较为亮眼，其中2010年来wind全A在11月单月涨幅的 中位数2.1%，为全年次高月份，2月单月涨幅的中位数2.8%，为全年最高 点。可以看到，其他主要宽基指数表现最好的月份同样主要集中在岁末年 初。 从行业表现看，岁末食饮、纺织服饰、家电等表现居前，而国防军工、基 础化工、钢铁行业表现靠后，年初往往存在反转效应。具体看，2010年来 岁末月份（11-12月）， ...

华福证券 电子 2024 年 12 月 11 日 OpenAI 发布季重磅不断，AI 行业迎来新纪元- 算力周跟踪 投资要点： 本周美股普遍低迷，云计算板块谷歌强势上涨。（1）GPU/CPU：本 周（1209-1211）AMD-7.83%，英伟达-5.17%，英特尔-3.63%。美东时间周 一，美国银行将 AMD 的评级由"买入"下调至"中性"，造成 AMD 股价 大跌；根据财联社 12/9 报道，英伟达涉嫌违反反垄断法，市场监管总局依 法对英伟达公司开展立案调查。（2）云计算板块：谷歌+6.11%，甲骨文 -7.28%。谷歌于 12/10 推出了最新的量子芯片"Willow"，实现重大技术突 破；甲骨文第二财季营收及本财季业绩指引不及预期。（3）先进封装板块： 甬矽电子+4.64%，较上周大幅下跌后有所回升。 OpenAI 发布季重磅不断，AI 行业迎来新纪元。太平洋时间 12/5（北 京时间 12/6），OpenAI 正式开启为期 12 天的新品发布季。截至今日，已 进行 4 场直播发布会，详见图表 9。 团队成员 分析师： 陈海进(S0210524060003) chj30590@hfzq.com.cn ...

华福证券 证券研究报告|行业专题研究 休闲食品 行业评级 强于大市（首次评级） 2024年12月11日 | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | | | | 休闲零食行业专题 | | | | 从渠道变革看休闲零食行业发展 | | | | 证券分析师： 刘畅 执业证书编号： S0210523050001 张东雪 执业证书编号： S0210523060001 研究助理： 李妍冰 | 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 华福证券 投资要点 ➢ 我国休闲零食行业分散，品类之间集中度差异较大，部分品类已形成龙头，但本土综合龙头尚未形成。我国本土企业在烘焙等品类上虽占据了头部主 导地位，但在巧克力、饼干果干等偏西式的品类上，外资企业仍相对领先，中西式壁垒尚未打开。由于我国人口和面积庞大，区域间经济水平、口味 差异较大，在信息流通快的时代、复制成本较低的行业里，打造 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the electronic industry [1]. Core Insights - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a resurgence, driven by AI and smart terminal innovations, with significant sales growth recorded in Q3 2024, marking the highest growth rate since 2016 [3][31]. - The report highlights the ongoing U.S. technology blockade against China, which is expected to accelerate the domestic semiconductor industry's progress towards self-sufficiency [3][61]. - AI applications are expanding across cloud and terminal devices, leading to comprehensive upgrades in hardware solutions, with traditional and innovative devices seeing increased market penetration [4][70]. Summary by Sections 1. 2024 Electronic Industry Review - The SW electronic index outperformed major indices, with a year-to-date increase of 17.76% as of November 28, 2024 [9]. - The electronic industry ranked fifth among 31 sectors in terms of performance, with notable growth in sub-sectors such as semiconductor equipment and digital chip design [9][12]. 2. Semiconductor: Industry Recovery and Self-Sufficiency - Global semiconductor sales reached $166 billion in Q3 2024, a 23.2% year-on-year increase, with predictions for continued double-digit growth through 2025 [31][32]. - Major players like TSMC and SMIC reported record revenues in Q3 2024, indicating strong industry performance [37][40]. - The report emphasizes the importance of capital expenditure in semiconductor manufacturing, with significant investments expected in the coming years [51][52]. 3. AI: Cloud and Terminal Hardware Upgrades - The demand for AI servers is surging, with a projected market value of $187 billion in 2024, reflecting a 69% growth rate [76]. - AI applications are driving hardware upgrades across various devices, including AI PCs, smartphones, and IoT devices, with significant growth expected in the AI-enabled consumer electronics market [105][130]. - The report notes the rapid development of AI smart glasses and headphones, which are becoming integral to the AI ecosystem [151][172]. 4. Investment Recommendations - For the semiconductor sector, the report suggests focusing on companies like SMIC, Hua Hong Semiconductor, and Changdian Technology, among others, due to their strong growth potential [182]. - In the AI segment, it recommends monitoring companies involved in AI server hardware and the HBM supply chain, as well as those producing AI-enabled consumer electronics [185].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Insights - The company, Xianglou New Materials, is a leading player in the domestic precision stamping special steel market, focusing on automotive and industrial applications. It is expected to benefit from stable demand in the automotive sector and has established long-term partnerships with major clients [3][4]. - The company is projected to achieve steady revenue growth, with expected revenues of 1.5 billion, 1.82 billion, and 2.06 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 10%, 22%, and 13% [4][5]. - The company is the only listed precision stamping materials company in China, which provides it with unique advantages in technology and cost, positioning it well for market expansion [4][5]. Company Overview - Xianglou New Materials specializes in precision stamping new materials and has been deeply involved in the automotive parts sector since 2009. The company focuses on customized solutions for high-end metal materials [9][17]. - The company has a stable shareholding structure, with the actual controller holding 26.17% of the shares [9]. Production Capacity and Expansion - The company is expected to have a production capacity of approximately 180,000 tons in 2024, with a new plant in Anhui set to be completed by the end of 2024, adding 40,000 tons of capacity [3][4][20]. - The production capacity utilization rate has remained high, with a forecasted utilization rate of 101% for 2024-2026 [4][20]. Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 1.353 billion yuan in 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 11.69%. The net profit for the same year was 201 million yuan, reflecting a significant increase of 42% [5][27]. - The gross profit margin reached a record high of 25.36% in 2023, with a net profit margin of 14.83% [31][32]. Market Demand and Trends - The demand for precision stamping materials in the automotive sector is expected to grow, with projections indicating a need for 908,000 tons and 1,050,000 tons in 2024 and 2025, respectively [4][86]. - The report highlights the increasing penetration of new energy vehicles, which is expected to accelerate the domestic substitution of precision stamping materials [80][86]. Competitive Landscape - The company holds a market share of approximately 14.8% in the domestic precision stamping materials market, with a focus on expanding its market presence through strategic partnerships and technological advancements [113][114]. - The competitive landscape is stable, with the company positioned to enhance its market share through ongoing capacity expansion and customer acquisition efforts [104][113].

epyTtropeR_elbaT|tsriF_elbaT 华福证券 Tabl e_First|Tabl e_Summary 宏 观 研 究 外贸数据点评 \出口持续保持韧劲 行业名 事件： 12月10日，海关总署公布数据，以美元计价，中国11月出口同比增长6.7% 至3123.1亿美元，进口同比减少3.9%至2148.7亿美元。贸易顺差974.4亿美 元，仍在增长。 投资要点： 11月份，我国对主要出口目的地出口同比增速略有回落。11月份我国对美 国出口金额为473.1亿美元，同比增长8%，增速较10月份下降0.1个百分点。 11月份我国对欧盟出口同比增加7.2%，增速较10月份回落5.5个百分点。我 国对日本出口同比增加6.4%，增速较10月份回落0.4个百分点。我国对东盟 出口总额为537亿美元，同比增加14.9%，增速较10月份回落0.9个百分点。 从对11月出口增速的贡献来看，我国对主要出口目的地出口对增速的贡献 与10月基本持平。我国对日本和东盟出口对11月出口增速的贡献分别为0.3 和2.4个百分点，与10月份持平。对美国出口对11月出口增速的贡献为1.2 个百分点，较10月份回落0.1个百分点。 ...