跨年行情来临，成长占优 定期报告 投资要点 历史上跨年行情的核心驱动因素是政策和外部事件、流动性。（1）15 年中跨年行 情仅出现 6 次，期间上证综指平均涨幅达 10%，持续 15-80 个交易日。（2）跨年 行情启动的核心驱动因素是政策和外部事件、流动性。一是宽松的政策和积极的外 部事件是启动跨年行情的核心因素：首先，若年底政策和事件偏积极，则跨年行情 可能开启，如 2009、2012、2017 年 12 月经济工作会议定调积极，2019 年 12 月 中美经贸协议达成，2020 年 12 月国内疫情缓解，2022 年 12 月防疫政策优化等； 其次，若政策和外部事件偏负面，行情则可能延迟至次年开启，如 2011 年末欧债 危机、2016/12 对杠杆收购的监管等。二是年末流动性偏紧则行情可能延迟至次年 启动，如 2010/12-2011/2 期间央行提准升息，2013/12 国内流动性偏紧，2015/12、 2016/12、2018/12 美联储均有加息。（3）跨年行情的开启受基本面的影响较小。 今年年末政策可能偏积极、流动性可能宽松，跨年行情可能开启。（1）年底积极 的政策可能进一步出台和落地。一是已 ...

飓风罢工消退美就业强劲恢复并可能延续 事件点评 美国就业数据点评（2024.11） 分析师 秦泰 SAC 执业证书编号：S0910523080002 qintai@huajinsc.cn 报告联系人 周欣然 zhouxinran@huajinsc.cn 投资要点 飓风影响趋于消退，罢工通过加薪得到解决，11 月美国非农就业强劲反弹，此前 两月数据亦显著上修。行业大类结构显示就业恢复尚未完成，走强可能持续至 12 月。根据当地时间 12 月 6 日美国劳工统计局公布的最新数据，11 月美国新增非农 就业高达 22.7 万人，从 10 月飓风罢工等暂时性因素冲击单月中大幅改善 19.1 万 人，达 4 月以来次高；同时 9-10 月合计上修达 5.6 万人。行业分布显示受飓风冲 击显著的服务业迎来就业大幅反弹，制造业罢工解决后也开始恢复性高增，但尚未 结束 12 月仍有就业保持强劲的空间。1）消费场景对极端天气敏感度高的接触性服 务业就业普遍大幅反弹，专业商务服务教育医疗、休闲酒店两个大类新增就业分别 比 10 月多达 6.1 万、5.1 万人，但批零交运公用事业大类却再度多减 1.9 万人至-2.3 万，或为飓 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy," indicating that it is expected to outperform the market index by more than 15% over the next 6-12 months [51]. Core Viewpoints - The company, Zhongli Co., Ltd. (603194.SH), specializes in the research, production, and sales of electric forklifts and other powered industrial vehicles, achieving significant revenue growth and maintaining a leading market position in the electric forklift sector [17][18]. - The company has demonstrated strong financial performance, with revenues increasing from 4.206 billion yuan in 2021 to 5.921 billion yuan in 2023, and a net profit growth from 352.8 million yuan to 805.7 million yuan during the same period [7][18]. - The electric forklift market is experiencing a notable shift towards electric vehicles, with the penetration rate of electric forklifts in China reaching 67.87% in 2023, reflecting a growing trend of replacing internal combustion forklifts [37][34]. Summary by Sections Basic Financial Status - The company reported revenues of 4.206 billion yuan, 5.011 billion yuan, and 5.921 billion yuan for the years 2021, 2022, and 2023, respectively, with year-over-year growth rates of 69.84%, 19.13%, and 18.16% [18]. - The net profit for the same years was 352.8 million yuan, 627 million yuan, and 805.7 million yuan, with corresponding growth rates of 59.34%, 77.71%, and 28.51% [18]. - For the first nine months of 2024, the company achieved revenues of 4.827 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 7.79%, and a net profit of 650 million yuan, up 4.27% [18]. Industry Situation - The global powered industrial vehicle market is experiencing stable growth, with electric forklifts gaining market share. The sales volume of electric forklifts increased from 534,700 units in 2013 to 1,544,000 units in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate of 11.19% [26][34]. - In China, the sales volume of electric forklifts surpassed that of internal combustion forklifts for the first time in 2020, and by 2023, the market share of electric forklifts reached 67.87% [34][37]. Company Highlights - Zhongli Co., Ltd. is a leading manufacturer in the electric forklift sector, with a market share exceeding 30% from 2021 to 2023. The company has maintained its position as the top producer of electric warehouse forklifts and lithium battery forklifts in China [37][38]. - The company is actively expanding into the mobile handling robot business, which is becoming a trend in the industry due to rising labor costs and the need for automation [38]. Fundraising Project Investment - The company plans to invest in four projects through its IPO, including the production of electric forklifts and smart industrial robots, which are expected to enhance production capacity and market share [39][42]. Comparison with Peers - In 2023, Zhongli Co., Ltd. achieved revenues of 5.921 billion yuan and a net profit of 806 million yuan, while comparable companies had an average revenue of 13.568 billion yuan and an average PE-TTM of 11.05X [44].

华 发 集 团 旗 下 企 业 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------|--------------------------------------| | 2024 | 年 12 月 06 日 \n博科测试（ 301598.SZ ） | | 公司研究●证券研究报告 \n新股覆盖研究 | | | 下周一（12 月 9 日）有一家创业板上市公司"博科测试"申购，发行价格为 38.46 | 交易数据 | | | 元。 | | 总市值（百万元） | | | | 博科测试（ 301598 ）：公司主营业务为伺服液压测试设备和汽车测试试验设备的 | 流通市值（百万元） | | | | 研发、设计、制造、销售、系统集成等综合服务。公司 2021-2 ...

华 发 集 团 旗 下 企 业 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------|--------------------------------------| | 2024 | 年 12 月 06 日 \n博科测试（ 301598.SZ ） | | 公司研究●证券研 ...

华 发 集 团 旗 下 企 业 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------|--------------------------------------| | 2024 | 年 12 月 06 日 \n中力股份（ 603194.SH ） | | 公司研究●证券研究报告 \n新股覆盖研究 | | | 下周二（12 月 10 日）有一家主板上市公司"中力股份"询价。 | 交易数据 | | | | 中力股份（ 603194 ）：公司是一家专注于电动叉车等机动工业车辆研发、生产和 | 总市值（百万元） | | | | 销售的高新技术企业。公司 年分别实现营业收入 亿元 亿 | 流通市值（百万元） | | | 元 | 2021-2023 42.06 /50.11 亿 ...

华 发 集 团 旗 下 企 业 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------|----------------------------------|----------------| | 2024 年 12 月 06 日 \n传媒 | | | 行业研究●证券研究报告 \n行业快报 | | | | | | | | | OpenAI 新品持续发布，关注 AI+ 应用催化 | 投资评级 | 领先大市 | | (维持) | | | 首选股票 | | | 评级 | | 投资要点 | | | | | | | | | | | | 事件： 北京时间 12 月 5 日， OpenAI 在社交媒体上宣布，从 12 月 6 日开始将 | | | | | | 进入一个持续发布 ...

华 发 集 团 旗 下 企 业 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------|----------------| | 2024 年 12 月 05 日 \n传媒 | | | 行业研究●证券研究报告 \n行业快报 | | | 视频生成再迎突破，开源赋能内容创作 | 投资评级 | 领先大市 | | (维持) | | 投资要点 | 首选股票 | | | 评级 | | 事件： 12 月 3 日，腾讯混元大模型正式上线视频生成功能并实现开源，参数量 | | | | | | 达 130 亿，并在综合评测中呈领先趋势。基于该 ...

华 发 集 团 旗 下 企 业 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|---------------------|--------------------------------------------|----------------------------------|--------| | 2024 年 12 月 05 日 \n半导体 | | | 行业研究●证券研究报告 \n行业快报 | | | HBM 加速迭代叠加美国限制出口，国产自主可 | 投资评级 | | 领先大市(维持) | | | 控重要性日益凸显 | 一年行业表现 | | | | | 投资要点 | | | | | | 根据《韩国经济新闻》 12 月 4 日报道，SK 海力士将于 25H2 采用台积电 3nm 生 | | | | | | 产 HBM4 。 | | | | | | SK 海力士改采台积电 3nm 生产 HBM4 ， HBM4E 将引 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a potential increase in stock price over the next 6-12 months [2][6]. Core Insights - The company has shown a revenue increase of 6.20% year-on-year, reaching 1.977 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, although net profit decreased by 4.11% to 142.9 million yuan [2][6]. - The company is a leading provider of temperature control solutions for data centers and specialized air conditioning systems, with ongoing investments in research and development [2][6]. - The report highlights the company's strategic expansion into overseas markets, particularly in Southeast Asia, and the significant growth in its data service segment, which now accounts for approximately 50% of total revenue [2][6]. Financial Performance - For the fiscal year 2024, the company is projected to achieve revenues of 3.044 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 21.2%, and a net profit of 190 million yuan, reflecting an 81.5% increase [6][11]. - The company’s revenue from the data center business is expected to grow significantly, with projections of 1.129 billion yuan in 2024, up from 840 million yuan in 2023, representing a growth rate of 28% [11][12]. - The report anticipates a gradual improvement in profit margins, with gross margins expected to be around 27.0% in 2024, slightly declining in subsequent years [11][12]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has established a comprehensive layout in liquid cooling technology, which is becoming essential for high-performance computing centers [2][13]. - The report notes that the company has secured partnerships with major clients such as Huawei and Tencent, enhancing its market presence [2][6]. - The company is focusing on expanding its product offerings in specialized applications, particularly in nuclear power and healthcare sectors, which have shown substantial growth [2][11].