华 发 集 团 旗 下 企 业 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------|----------------------------------------| | 2024 \n投资要点 | 年 09 月 21 日 \n托普云农（ 301556.SZ ） | | 公司研究●证券研究报告 \n新股覆盖研究 | | | 下周四（ 9 月 26 日）有一家创业板上市公司"托普云农"询价。 | 交易数据 | | | | 托普云农（ 301556 ）：公司主要为农业领域相关的政府部门、企事业单位、科研院 | 总市值（百万元） | | | | 校等提供智慧农业服务及相关智能硬件设备。公司 2021-2023 年分别实现营业收 | | 流通市值（百万元） | | 入 | 3.32 亿元/3.75 亿元/4.59 亿元， YOY 依次为 25.10%/ ...

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| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------------------|-----------------------| | 2024 年 09 月 19 日 \n食品饮料 \n中秋出行良好，消费数据分化 \n投资要点 | 投资评级 | | 行业研究●证券研究报告 \n行业周报 \n同步大市-A维持 | | | 行情回顾：上周食品饮料（申万）行业下跌 5.54% ，在 31 个子行业中排名第 31 | 首选股票 | | | 评级 | | 位，跑输上证综指 3.31pct ，跑输创业板指 5.35pct 。二级（申万）子板块对比， | 600519.SH ...

| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------|----------------| | 2024 年 09 月 19 日 \n半导体 | | | 行业研究●证券研究报告 \n行业分析 | | | 产能排挤叠加 AI 终端渗透率增长，利基型 | 投资 ...

| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------|----------------| | 2024 年 09 月 19 日 \n半导体 | | | 行业研究●证券研究报告 \n行业分析 | | | 产能排挤叠加 AI 终端渗透 ...

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Industry Investment Rating - Leading Market-A (Maintained) [1] Core Views - Consumer lithium batteries are mainly used in mobile phones, laptops, smart wearable devices, and power tools, with polymer soft-pack being the dominant form due to its advantages in energy density and flexibility [2] - Emerging consumer electronics and AI technology are driving a new wave of device upgrades, creating significant potential demand for consumer batteries [2] - Cobalt-based lithium batteries with soft-pack solutions are the mainstream for 3C consumer batteries, with stacked batteries showing advantages in energy density and fast charging [2] - The consumer lithium battery market is expected to grow steadily, with Chinese battery manufacturers expanding globally to enhance competitiveness [2] Consumer Lithium Battery Development History - The consumer lithium battery industry has evolved through four stages: germination (1991-1999), initiation (2000-2006), rapid development (2007-2016), and maturity (2017-2022) [5] - The smartphone era significantly boosted demand for consumer batteries, with China, Japan, and South Korea forming a competitive landscape [4] Types of Consumer Batteries - Consumer batteries are mainly used in 3C products (computers, communication, and consumer electronics) and are divided into primary (non-rechargeable) and secondary (rechargeable) batteries, with lithium-ion batteries being the mainstream [7] Packaging Forms of Consumer Batteries - Lithium-ion batteries are categorized into cylindrical, prismatic, and polymer soft-pack batteries, with soft-pack batteries being the most suitable for consumer electronics due to their lightweight and flexible design [10] Polymer Soft-Pack Consumer Lithium Batteries - Polymer soft-pack batteries have seen steady growth, with a 5-year CAGR of 16.3% from 2017 to 2021, driven by smartphones and laptops [13] - In 2023, global polymer soft-pack battery shipments reached 5.48 billion units, a 2.6% YoY decline, with smartphones and laptops accounting for nearly 50% of the market [13] Button Batteries in TWS Earbuds - Button batteries have become the mainstream for TWS earbuds due to their compact size and high energy density, with each TWS earbud requiring two button batteries and one soft-pack battery for the charging case [16] Shaped Lithium Batteries - Shaped lithium batteries, such as L-shaped and curved batteries, are increasingly used in smartphones and wearable devices to maximize internal space and improve battery capacity [19] Consumer Lithium Battery Market Size - Global consumer lithium battery shipments reached 113.2 GWh in 2023, a 0.9% YoY decline, accounting for 9.41% of total lithium battery shipments [20] - China's consumer lithium battery shipments were stable, with 49 GWh in 2023, a 2.1% YoY increase, accounting for 5.54% of total lithium battery shipments [20] Market Concentration in Consumer Lithium Batteries - The global consumer lithium battery market is highly concentrated, with the top 5 companies accounting for over 75% of the market share in 2022 [22] Policies in the Consumer Lithium Battery Industry - Various policies have been introduced to support the development of the lithium battery industry, including energy conservation, recycling, and technological innovation [24] Laptop Market Maturity - The laptop market is mature, with global PC shipments declining by 12.9% YoY in 2023, but demand for lightweight and thin batteries is driving the shift from cylindrical to soft-pack batteries [27] Tablet Market Recovery - The tablet market is recovering, with global shipments reaching 129 million units in 2023, a 20.5% YoY decline, but showing signs of growth in 2024 [30] Smartphone Market Saturation - The smartphone market is relatively saturated, with global shipments declining by 4.32% YoY in 2023, but AI technology is expected to drive a new wave of upgrades [32] AI in Laptops and Smartphones - AI technology is injecting new vitality into the laptop and smartphone markets, with AI-enabled devices expected to see significant growth in 2024 [35] Growth Potential in Smart Wearable Devices - Smart wearable devices, such as smartwatches and TWS earbuds, have significant growth potential, with global shipments reaching 498 million units in 2023, a 1.7% YoY increase [37] TWS Earbuds Market Dominance - TWS earbuds have become the mainstream in the headphone market, with global shipments reaching 143 million units in H1 2024, a 10.2% YoY increase [41] Electric Tools Market Expansion - The global electric tools market is expanding, with a market size of $28.85 billion in 2023, a 3.4% YoY increase, and lithium batteries increasingly replacing lead-acid batteries [44] Electric Two-Wheelers Market Growth - The global electric two-wheeler market is growing, with shipments reaching 67.4 million units in 2023, a 4.5% YoY increase [49] Drone Battery Market - ATL is the largest supplier of batteries for DJI drones, with DJI holding nearly 80% of the global consumer drone market [59] E-Cigarette Market Size - The global e-cigarette market reached $20.88 billion in 2023, with closed-system e-cigarettes accounting for 63.3% of the market [61] E-Cigarette Regulations - China has implemented strict regulations on e-cigarettes, including bans on flavored e-cigarettes and online sales, leading to a more standardized market [65] E-Cigarette Export Market - China is the largest manufacturer and exporter of e-cigarettes, with exports reaching $11.08 billion in 2023, a 12.5% YoY increase [67] Consumer Lithium Battery Production Process - The production process for consumer lithium batteries is complex, involving multiple steps such as mixing, coating, cutting, stacking, welding, and testing [71] Stacked Battery Technology - Stacked batteries are expected to become the mainstream for consumer electronics due to their advantages in energy density, fast charging, and safety [73] Cobalt-Based Lithium Batteries - Cobalt-based lithium batteries are the mainstream for 3C consumer batteries, with cobalt oxide shipments reaching 45,000 tons in H1 2024, a 28.6% YoY increase [76] Profitability of Consumer Battery Companies - The profitability of consumer battery companies has improved due to declining cobalt prices, with some companies seeing significant increases in gross margins [79] Consumer Battery Sales Growth - Consumer battery sales are expected to grow significantly, driven by the AI era and the demand for new devices such as AI-enabled smartphones and laptops [82] Overseas Investments by Consumer Battery Companies - Several consumer battery companies are investing in overseas production facilities, with cumulative investments exceeding $7.28 billion, to expand their global presence [87]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes that significant positive policies or external events are crucial for the market to find a bottom, and currently, there is a need to wait for such catalysts [9][12][17] - Historical data shows that since 2005, there have been 10 major market bottoms, each preceded or followed by significant policy changes or external events that improved the fundamental outlook [9][10][12] - Recent economic data indicates a decline in key indicators such as investment growth (8.2% to 8.1%), consumption growth (2.7% to 2.1%), and real estate sales (-18.6% to -18%), suggesting a need for policy intervention [9][12][16] Group 2 - The report notes that liquidity conditions are expected to remain loose, with a high probability of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in September, which may lead to a global easing trend [9][12][17] - The sentiment indicators are nearing historical lows, indicating limited further downside potential, with trading volume declines reaching 52% since May 20, 2023 [17][20] - Valuation metrics show that the proportion of stocks with a price-to-book ratio below 1 is at a historically high level, indicating potential undervaluation in the market [17][20] Group 3 - The report suggests a balanced allocation strategy focusing on technology growth, core assets, and undervalued dividend stocks, particularly in sectors like TMT and consumer goods [9][12][17] - It highlights that after a market bottom, sectors with high growth potential and those aligned with policy direction tend to outperform, with recent declines observed in construction, beauty care, and agriculture sectors [9][12][17] - The report also points out that core assets such as electric vehicles, pharmaceuticals, and food and beverage sectors may present investment opportunities as policies continue to support these areas [9][12][17]

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