Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Buy - A" [1]. Core Views - The company is expected to turn a profit in the first half of 2024, with a significant increase in revenue from mid-to-high-end products, benefiting from the recovery in the semiconductor industry and the rise in market demand driven by technologies such as artificial intelligence [1]. - The company anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders of between 190 million to 277 million yuan in Q2 2024, marking a year-on-year turnaround from a loss of 188 million yuan in the same period last year [1]. - The company is actively enhancing its ecosystem through acquisitions, including a planned acquisition of a 26% stake in Jinglong Technology, which is expected to strengthen its testing capabilities [1][4]. Financial Performance - The company forecasts revenues of 25.28 billion yuan, 29.23 billion yuan, and 34.56 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with growth rates of 13.5%, 15.6%, and 18.2% [4]. - The projected net profit for the same years is 850 million yuan, 1.13 billion yuan, and 1.58 billion yuan, with growth rates of 401.7%, 33.2%, and 39.3% [4]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve from 12.9% in 2024 to 15.1% in 2026, indicating enhanced operational efficiency [5]. Market Trends - The demand for AI servers is projected to grow significantly, with shipments expected to reach 1.942 million units in 2024 and 2.364 million units in 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 24.7% from 2022 to 2027 [3]. - The advanced packaging market is anticipated to grow rapidly, with the global market size expected to increase from 36.7 billion USD in 2022 to 52.2 billion USD by 2026, capturing a larger share of the overall packaging market [3].

| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------|----------------------|---------------------|-------|----------|-------|------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------| | 2024 年 07 月 12 日 \n2024 年 6 月进出口数据点评 | | | | | | | 事件点评 | 固定收益类●证券研究报告 | | 投资要点 以美元计价， 2024 年 6 月出口 ...

金融数据速评（2024.6） 投资要点 新增贷款持续低迷，企业中长贷加速降温，地产放松尚未扭转居民借贷放缓之势。6 月 新增信贷 2.13 万亿，同比大幅少增 9212 亿，为年内同比少增最为显著的单月，主要拖 累来自两个方面：1）企业中长贷 6 月新增 9700 亿，大幅少增达 6233 亿，降温有所加 速，即便去年同期降息，但基数并不明显走高，6 月的大幅降温很大程度上可能意味着 地方债务风险加速化解背景下，新增地方债稍有放量即可能部分替代 贷款，新增项目 相对不多，基建投资未来数月增速难以大幅回升。2）6 月新增居民户贷款 5709 亿，同 比少增达 3930 亿，连续第五个月同比少增，其中居民短贷和居民中长贷分别少增 2443 亿和 1428 亿，"517"地产放松新政尽管令房地产成交活跃度有所提升，但"以价换 量"和原限购政策压制的需求一次性集中释放特征更为明显，居民资产负债表扩张放缓 趋势未有明显扭转。 政府债券发行继续加速，但不敌贷款大幅少增，信用需求从增量转为存量，信用扩张速 度对货币宽松操作日渐钝化。6 月新增社融近 3.3 万亿，仅时隔一个月即再度转为同比 少增，且少增幅度达 9283 亿 ...

| --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------| | 2024 年 07 月 12 日 \n出口预防式集中提前 | 宏观类 ● 证券研究报告 \n事件点评 | | 国际贸易数据点评（2024.6） 投资要点 | 分析师 秦泰 SAC 执业证书编号： S0910523080002 | | 6 月出口（美元计价）同比增速再度小幅上行，除基数处于底部的影响之外，钢材、 | qintai@huajinsc.cn | | 汽车零部件等类别在外部保护主义贸易政策落地前集中出口形成一定暂时性拉动。 | zhouxinran@huajinsc.cn | | 6 月出口同比在基数处于底部的背景下，再度小幅上行 1.0 个百分点至 8.6% ，部分 | 报告联系人 周欣然 | | 受美欧即将加征关税影响的商品类别出现一定的集中提前出口形成暂时性拉动。6 | 相关报告 | | 月进口（美元计 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy - B" [1]. Core Views - The company reported Q2 performance exceeding expectations, with a revenue forecast for H1 2024 between 7.86 billion to 8.08 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 43.95% to 47.98% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be between 1.6 billion to 1.73 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 44.39% to 56.12% [1]. - The company is focusing on expanding its product categories and enhancing its national distribution channels, with significant growth expected in its new product line, "Water La" [1]. Revenue Analysis - Q2 revenue growth is anticipated to be robust, driven by strong performance in functional drinks and water products [1]. - The company is expanding its distribution network and increasing the number of sales points, which is expected to contribute to steady revenue growth [1]. - The new product "Water La" has shown rapid sales growth, with daily sales surpassing 120,000 boxes in the first half of the year [1]. Profit Analysis - The estimated net profit margin for Q2 is projected to increase by 1.7 percentage points to 22.3% [1]. - The decline in raw material costs, particularly sugar and PET bottle prices, is expected to positively impact profit margins [1]. - Effective cost control measures are anticipated to further enhance profitability [1]. Investment Recommendations - The company is well-positioned to transition from a single-category to a multi-category beverage enterprise, leveraging its brand strength, distribution channels, and scale advantages [1]. - The revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted upwards, with expected revenues of 15.255 billion, 18.767 billion, and 22.632 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 35.4%, 23.0%, and 20.6% respectively [2]. - The net profit forecasts for the same period have also been revised, with expected figures of 2.806 billion, 3.530 billion, and 4.301 billion yuan, indicating year-on-year growth rates of 37.6%, 25.8%, and 21.8% respectively [2].

下 相关报告 详解国债借入操作的资产负债表传导机制— —华金 宏观 ·双循 环周报 （第 65 期） 2024.7.5 国债借入操作是货币政策回归中性的明确信 号 2024.7.1 图 1: 美国 CPI 同比、核心 CPI 同比及贡献结构（%） 10 耐用品 = =非耐用品 == 房租 = ■ 核心服务ex房租 一●一关国核心CPI同比及贡献 一●一关国CPI同比 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 20-12 21-06 21-12 22-06 22-12 06 23-06 20-06 23-12 -1 资料未深: CEIC，华金证券研究所 美国 CPI 点评（2024.6） 投资要点 美国 6 月核心 CPI 同比连续第二个月超市场预期小幅下行，加之日前鲍威尔在美国国会 作证时的相关发言，市场对美联储年内降息次数预期增加，美元指数短线跳水。据美国 劳工统计局当地时间 7 月 11 日上午公布的数据，美国 6 月 CPI（经季节调整，下同）、 核心 CPI 同比分别较 5 月下行 0.3、0.1 个百分点至 3.0%和 3.3%，其中核心 CPI 环比 仅上涨 0.06%，低于市场和我们前期预期；加之 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" [3] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a year-on-year increase of over 40% in net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2024, driven by its platform-based business model supporting the advanced packaging industry [1] - The company is positioned as a platform-type enterprise in the semiconductor equipment sector, focusing on four major application areas: etching, thin film deposition, cleaning, and thermal treatment, which are essential for semiconductor manufacturing and packaging [2] - The company provides comprehensive solutions for advanced packaging, including TSV manufacturing and various etching processes, which are crucial for enhancing chip performance and yield [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q2 2024, the company expects revenue between 55.51 billion and 72.81 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 21.85% to 59.83% [1] - The anticipated net profit for Q2 2024 is projected to be between 14.43 billion and 18.33 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 19.54% to 51.83% [1] - For the first half of 2024, revenue is expected to be between 114.10 billion and 131.40 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 35.40% to 55.93% [1] - The company's net profit for the first half of 2024 is projected to be between 25.70 billion and 29.60 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 42.84% to 64.51% [1] Market Position and Strategy - The company is enhancing its market share and core competitiveness by continuously refining customer needs and expanding its product matrix [1] - The semiconductor equipment sector is characterized by rapid technological advancements, with the company’s R&D efforts leading the industry by 3 to 5 years [2] - The company aims to benefit from the domestic semiconductor industry's self-sufficiency strategy, leveraging its comprehensive equipment solutions across various sectors [2] Future Outlook - The company’s revenue forecasts for 2024 to 2026 have been adjusted to 302.82 billion, 402.14 billion, and 501.67 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 37.2%, 32.8%, and 24.8% [5] - The net profit forecasts for the same period are adjusted to 59.70 billion, 76.92 billion, and 97.10 billion yuan, with growth rates of 53.1%, 28.8%, and 26.2% [5] - The company is expected to benefit from the increasing demand for advanced process and packaging equipment driven by the growth of AI and domestic storage expansions [5]

2024 年 07 月 11 日 公司研究●证券研究报告 瑞芯微(603893.SH) 公司快报 市场需求逐步复苏,新一轮成长周期确立 事件点评:公司发布 2024 年半年度业绩预告,公司预计 2024 年半年度实现归属于母 公司所有者的净利润 15,950 万元到 19,500 万元,与上年同期相比,将增加 13,470 万元到 17,020 万元,同比增长 543.15%到 686.29%;预计 2024 年半年度实现归属 于母公司所有者的扣除非经常性损益的净利润 15,360 万元到 18,900 万元,与上年同 期相比,增加 13,860 万元到 17,400 万元,同比增长 924.00%到 1,160.00%。 市场需求逐步复苏,Q2 业绩超预期:根据公司发布的业绩预告显示,2024 年上半 年,市场需求逐步复苏,AIoT 迎来增长。报告期内,依托 AIoT 产品布局优势,公 司在 AIoT 各产品线持续渗透,在汽车电子、机器视觉、工业应用、教育及消费电 子等领域继续突破。公司预计 2024 年半年度实现归属于母公司所有者的净利润 15,950 万元到 19,500 万元,与上年同期相比,将增加 ...

2024 年 07 月 11 日 行业研究●证券研究报告 传媒 行业快报 超休闲+策略持续发力出海,游戏 IP 价值凸显 投资要点 事件:北京时间 7 月 10 日,索尼宣布与《幻兽帕鲁》开发商 PocketPair 联合成 立合资公司 Palworld Entertainment,将针对 Pocketpair 开发的游戏《幻兽帕鲁》 开展国内外的各种授权业务。7 月 11 日,《魔兽世界》官宣国服"巫妖王之怒" 正式回归。上半年趋势:据 DataEye 数据,2024H1,中国出海手游在超休闲赛 道发力,在投放榜抢占前 2 个席位;在 2024 H1 海外策略手游投放榜上,中国 厂商占据了所有席位。 索尼联手 PocketPair,深度发掘游戏 IP 价值。《幻兽帕鲁》是一款支持多人游 戏模式的全新开放世界生存制作游戏,核心玩法包括怪物养成、战斗、领域探索、 建造、制作等。游戏销量在发售 3 天内即突破 400 万份,据 Steam DB 数据显 示,截至 7 月 11 日,《幻兽帕鲁》Steam 的历史最高玩家数量超 210 万,仅次 于《绝地求生》(PUBG)。此次索尼联手 PocketPair,意在针 ...

2024 年 07 月 10 日 行业研究●证券研究报告 电力设备及新能源 行业快报 《光伏制造行业规范条件(2024 年本)(征求 意见稿)》发布 投资要点 事件概况:为进一步加强光伏制造行业管理,促进行业高质量发展,工业和信息 化部电子信息司于 2024 年 7 月 9 日对《光伏制造行业规范条件(2021 年本)》 《光伏制造行业规范公告管理暂行办法(2021 年本)》进行修订。 2024 光伏《规范条件》和《管理办法》(征求意见稿)解读:主要从本次修订的 背景、与 2021 年本规范条件相比有哪些调整以及具体提高了哪些技术指标方面 进行解读。 1) 修订背景:《规范条件》自 2013 年发布以来,根据产业发展实际情况和市场需 求,先后于 2015 年、2018 年、2021 年适时进行修订。本次《规范条件》和《管 理办法》的修订,旨在应对光伏产业快速发展及市场需求变化,通过政策引导推 动产业升级。修订主要背景是行业目前面临供需失衡和价格下滑的挑战,主要考 虑包括加强行业自律、优先支持技术和品牌优势企业、优化产业环境、加强知识 产权保护和提升产品质量。修订后的政策顺应了技术进步和市场需求,促进了光 伏产 ...