证 券 研 究 报 告 行业周报 医药行业周报 全球GLP-1市场稳定扩容，关注国内企 业的授权机会 投资评级： 报告日期： 推荐 （维持 ） 2025年08月17日 分析师：胡博新 SAC编号：S1050522120002 分析师：吴景欢 SAC编号：S1050523070004 医 药 行 业 观 点 1. 东升西落，出海将是长期趋势 根据医药魔方数据，2025年上半年，全球医药交易数量达456笔，同比增长32%；首付款总额达118亿美元，同比激增 136%；交易总金额高达1304亿美元，同比增长58%。全球交易数量与金额均呈现显著上升态势。其中，涉及中国的交易 贡献了近50%的总金额和超过30%的交易数量。无论交易金额和总数，中国企业在全球创新药中价值得到进一步认可。中 国的研发效率优势正逐步显现，而且工程师数量和临床资源优势叠加。展望未来十年，中国的效率优势还将持续扩大，中 国企业参与的创新药交易预计超过全球的50%以上。根据wind数据，医药生物行业最近1月涨幅为11.07%，跑赢沪深300指 数6.51个百分点，截止8月15日，医药生物行业指数当期PE（TTM）39.94倍；高于5年历史平均估值3 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the media industry, highlighting potential growth driven by AI applications and digital marketing innovations [4][8]. Core Insights - The media sector is experiencing significant growth, with a 61.5% increase over the past 12 months, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which saw a 25.6% increase [2]. - AI applications are expected to continue driving growth in the media sector, particularly in digital advertising and content creation, with companies like BlueX and DeepSeek leading the charge [3][14]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the second half of the year for companies' core business operations, following the release of interim results [3]. Summary by Sections 1. Media Industry Review - The media sector has shown strong performance, with notable stock movements among companies like Jishi Media and Yuedu Group, which saw increases of 45.19% and 21.57% respectively [13]. - The overall market sentiment remains positive, with a focus on AI's role in reshaping digital marketing strategies [14]. 2. Key Recommended Stocks and Logic - The report recommends several stocks within the media sector, including: - BlueX (300058) for its innovative advertising model similar to AppLovin's Axon 2.0 [4]. - Mango Super Media (300413) for its new AI initiatives and diverse content offerings [4]. - Other notable mentions include Tianzhou Culture (300148) and Wanda Film (002739), both expected to benefit from ongoing digital transformations [4]. 3. Industry Dynamics - The gaming sector is thriving, with Tencent reporting a 17% increase in domestic game revenue and a 35% increase in international revenue [17]. - The film market is also recovering, with the summer box office surpassing 90 billion yuan, indicating strong consumer interest and a diverse slate of films [27][28]. 4. AI Applications in Media - AI is transforming digital marketing, with companies like AppLovin and BlueX leveraging AI to enhance advertising efficiency and effectiveness [14]. - The report highlights the potential for AI to drive user engagement and content creation across various platforms, including Bilibili and Meitu [15][16]. 5. Company Performance and Forecasts - The report provides earnings forecasts for key companies, with many expected to see significant growth in EPS and PE ratios over the next few years [8]. - Companies like Huace Film (300133) and Mango Super Media (300413) are projected to achieve substantial increases in earnings per share, reflecting their strong market positions and innovative strategies [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report As of August 16, 2025, the disclosed issuance plan for local government bonds in September amounts to 675.5 billion yuan, with new special bonds accounting for 57%. In the third quarter, the issuance plan proportions for each month are 46% (1399.2 billion yuan) in July, 32% (963.3 billion yuan) in August, and 22% (675.5 billion yuan) in September. The proportions of new special bonds for each month are 44% (774.5 billion yuan), 34% (585.1 billion yuan), and 22% (384.3 billion yuan) respectively [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Overall Issuance Plan in September - The total disclosed issuance plan for local government bonds in September is 675.5 billion yuan, with new special bonds accounting for 57% [1]. 3.2 Issuance Plan by Region in September - The top regions in terms of local government bond issuance plan in September are Guangdong (88.7 billion yuan), Hebei (60.4 billion yuan), Jiangsu (56.5 billion yuan), Zhejiang (54.8 billion yuan), and Xinjiang (49.8 billion yuan) [2]. 3.3 New Special Bond Issuance Plan in September - The top regions in terms of new special bond issuance plan in September are Zhejiang (70 billion yuan), Yunnan (66.4 billion yuan), Sichuan (60 billion yuan), Hebei (59.1 billion yuan), and Fujian (53.5 billion yuan) [3].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" investment rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance [11]. Core Insights - The company is making rapid progress in its clinical trials, particularly with its small molecule GLP-1R agonist ASC30, which has shown promising results in weight loss and safety [6][7]. - ASC30 is positioned to potentially become a "Best in Class" treatment due to its efficacy in weight reduction and low adverse effects [7]. - The company is also developing ASC47, a small molecule THRβ agonist, which is expected to work synergistically with GLP-1 treatments to enhance weight loss while minimizing muscle loss [8]. Clinical Development - The company initiated its first phase IIa clinical trial for ASC30 in early July, successfully enrolling 125 participants within a month [6]. - The expected timeline for top-line data from the ASC30 trial is Q4 2025 [6]. Financial Projections - The report forecasts the company's R&D expenses to increase to 415 million, 487 million, and 540 million RMB for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively [9]. - The projected net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be -372.9 million, -467.09 million, and -562.67 million RMB for the years 2025 to 2027 [9][13]. - Revenue projections for 2021 to 2023 are not specified, but the report indicates a significant decline in revenue for 2024 [9][13]. Financial Statements Overview - The company's total assets are projected to decrease from 2,491.01 million RMB in 2023 to 571.46 million RMB by 2027 [14][16]. - The report highlights a significant drop in operating income, with a forecast of 1.28 million RMB in 2024 and no revenue expected in 2025 and 2026 [13][16]. - The cash flow statement indicates negative cash flow from operating activities, with projections of -555.17 million RMB in 2025 [15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [7] Core Views - The company's main business is steadily expanding, with continuous optimization in profitability [5][6] - Revenue for H1 2025 reached 7.899 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 799 million yuan, up 16% [4] - The company is experiencing a downtrend in costs, leading to improved profitability, with Q2 2025 gross margin increasing by 2 percentage points to 26.19% [5] - The company is actively promoting strategic new products, such as yeast protein, leveraging existing channel resources for market introduction [6] Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, revenue was 4.105 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11%, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 429 million yuan, up 15% [4] - The company achieved a sales and management expense ratio increase of 0.1 percentage points and 0.2 percentage points, respectively, leading to a net profit margin increase of 1 percentage point to 10.82% [5] - The company’s fermentation output for H1 2025 was 228,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 12% [6] Future Earnings Forecast - The company expects continuous improvement in performance, with projected EPS for 2025-2027 at 1.81, 2.06, and 2.31 yuan, respectively [7] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 20, 17, and 15 times for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [7] Market Expansion - The company is expanding its overseas market presence, with Q2 2025 domestic and international revenues of 2.305 billion yuan and 1.778 billion yuan, respectively, showing year-on-year growth of 4% and 22% [6] - The number of overseas distributors increased by 315 to 6,343 by the end of H1 2025, indicating strong growth in international markets [6]

Market Sentiment - The current market sentiment score is 60, indicating a "relatively hot" market condition, which suggests a gradual upward trend supported by recent improvements in market sentiment and policy support [5][8]. Hot Topics Tracking - **Brain-Computer Interface**: The National Medical Insurance Administration has introduced a new pricing mechanism for innovative medical technologies, including a "brain-computer interface implantation fee," which is expected to accelerate the clinical application and return of innovative drugs and devices. Related stocks include Innovation Medical (002173) and Weisi Medical (688580) [6]. - **Robotics**: The first World Humanoid Robot Games will take place in Beijing from August 15-17, showcasing advancements in motion control and practical applications in various tasks. Related stocks include Wolong Electric Drive (600580) and Changsheng Bearing (300718) [6]. - **Logistics**: The State Post Bureau has held discussions to address issues of "involution" in the express delivery industry and promote high-quality development. Additionally, unmanned logistics vehicles are entering large-scale commercial use, particularly in the "last mile" delivery segment. Related stocks include Shentong Express (002468) and SF Holding (002352) [6]. Capital Flow Analysis - The top ten stocks with the highest net inflow of capital include Ningde Times (300750) with a net inflow of 1.41 billion, followed by GoerTek (002241) with 938 million and Sifang Jingchuang (300468) with 872 million [9][10]. - The top ten stocks with the highest net buy in financing include Haiguang Information (688041) with 509 million, followed by Industrial Fulian (601138) with 477 million and Zhongke Shuguang (603019) with 472 million [11]. - The top ten stocks with the highest net outflow of capital include China Great Wall (000066) with a net outflow of 1.31 billion, followed by Aerospace Science and Technology (000901) with 885 million and Zhongji Xuchuang (300308) with 773 million [12][19]. Industry Overview - The report highlights the performance of various industries, with significant net inflows observed in the electronics and computer sectors, while the banking and real estate sectors experienced notable net outflows [15][19].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" investment rating for Jiuhua Tourism (603199.SH) [2][7] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the ongoing recovery in tourism and cultural consumption in China, with a strategic focus on expanding its business through various initiatives [6][7] - The company plans to raise up to 500 million yuan through a private placement to fund projects aimed at enhancing its tourism offerings, including the construction of a new cable car and hotel upgrades [5][6] Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - Jiuhua Tourism aims to raise up to 500 million yuan for projects including the construction of the Lion Peak cable car, hotel renovations, and transportation upgrades, which are expected to enhance the visitor experience and increase revenue [5] - In the first half of 2025, the company reported a 12% increase in visitor numbers and a 15% increase in revenue, reaching 5.65 million visitors and 7.65 billion yuan in revenue [6] Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve earnings per share (EPS) of 2.01 yuan, 2.27 yuan, and 2.51 yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 18, 16, and 14 [7][9] - Revenue is expected to grow from 76.4 billion yuan in 2024 to 102.8 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 8.5% [9][10] Business Strategy - The company is leveraging its resources from the Jiuhua Mountain area to create a comprehensive tourism ecosystem, including health food and local cuisine brands, aiming to establish a tourism complex in the Chizhou region [6][7]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" investment rating for the company, marking its first coverage [7]. Core Insights - The company experienced a decline in revenue due to a drop in visitor traffic, but has implemented business optimizations that have led to improved profitability [5][6]. - The company reported a total revenue of 457 million yuan for H1 2025, a decrease of 10% year-on-year, with a net profit of 121 million yuan, also down by 8% [4]. - The company is actively adjusting its operations, including the suspension of a loss-making performance project, which has contributed to a slight increase in gross margin [5][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company's gross margin decreased by 2 percentage points to 48.07%, while in Q2 2025, it increased by 1 percentage point to 49.20% [5]. - The company’s sales expense ratio remained stable, while the management expense ratio increased by 1 percentage point to 14.92% [5]. Business Adjustments - Revenue from core business segments such as mountain tickets, cable cars, and hotel services decreased by 10%, 8%, and 12% respectively, primarily due to reduced visitor traffic [6]. - The company has halted the performance project "Only Emei Mountain" to mitigate losses, and the upgrade of the Golden Summit cable car is expected to be completed by the end of 2025, enhancing visitor capacity [6]. Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to see gradual improvement in performance due to ongoing adjustments and the anticipated completion of infrastructure projects [7]. - EPS forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 0.50, 0.56, and 0.61 yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 27, 25, and 23 times [7].

Group 1 - The current market sentiment is rated at 84 points, indicating an "overheated" market condition, which suggests a potential for market resistance as it approaches higher levels [6][9][21] - Recent market trends show a gradual upward movement supported by improved sentiment and policy backing, with historical data indicating that sentiment below 50 points provides market support, while above 90 points may create resistance [9][21] Group 2 - Key themes currently attracting attention include brain-computer interfaces, robotics, and logistics, with specific companies identified as potential investment opportunities in these sectors [7] - In the brain-computer interface sector, new pricing mechanisms for innovative medical technologies have been introduced, which may accelerate clinical applications and returns for related companies such as Innovation Medical and Weisi Medical [7] - The robotics theme is highlighted by the upcoming World Humanoid Robot Games in Beijing, showcasing advancements in motion control and practical applications, with companies like Wolong Electric Drive and Changsheng Bearing being relevant [7] - The logistics sector is experiencing regulatory discussions aimed at promoting high-quality development, with companies like Shentong Express and SF Holding positioned to benefit from the growth of unmanned logistics vehicles [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company reported a 9% year-on-year increase in revenue for H1 2025, reaching 893.89 billion yuan, with a net profit of 454.03 billion yuan, also up by 9% [4][9] - The gross margin for Q2 2025 decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 91.30%, attributed to increased volume of kilogram Maotai and higher market investment for the 1935 brand [5] - The revenue from Maotai liquor increased by 10.99% to 320.32 billion yuan in Q2 2025, while series liquor revenue decreased by 6.53% to 67.40 billion yuan [6] - Direct sales revenue grew by 16.52% to 167.89 billion yuan in Q2 2025, with direct sales accounting for 43.30% of total revenue [7] - The company is expected to achieve its annual revenue targets through refined product allocation and optimized distribution structure [9] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - H1 2025 revenue was 893.89 billion yuan, with a net profit of 454.03 billion yuan, both reflecting a 9% increase year-on-year [4] - Q2 2025 revenue was 387.88 billion yuan, with a net profit of 185.55 billion yuan, showing a 7% increase in revenue and a 5% increase in net profit compared to the previous year [4] Product and Sales Analysis - The revenue from Maotai liquor in Q2 2025 was 320.32 billion yuan, up 10.99%, while series liquor revenue was 67.40 billion yuan, down 6.53% [6] - The gross margin for Q2 2025 was 91.30%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points, primarily due to increased kilogram Maotai sales [5] Channel and Market Strategy - Direct sales revenue increased by 16.52% to 167.89 billion yuan in Q2 2025, with direct sales accounting for 43.30% of total revenue [7] - The company is focusing on maintaining healthy channel dynamics while cautiously promoting collection progress [5] Earnings Forecast - The report adjusts the EPS forecasts for 2025-2027 to 74.81, 81.16, and 87.68 yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 19, 18, and 16 times [9]