Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [5] Core Insights - The company has received orders for humanoid robot components, marking its entry into the lightweight emerging application market [4] - There is a growing demand for lightweight solutions in humanoid robots, which can enhance energy efficiency and safety [4] - The company has established a strong customer base in the luxury automotive sector, which is expected to support its growth in the humanoid robotics field [4] Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 79.0 billion, 87.3 billion, and 96.6 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of 4.7 billion, 6.1 billion, and 7.1 billion yuan for the same years [5] - The revenue growth rates are expected to be 10.6% annually from 2025 to 2027, while net profit growth rates are projected to be 29.7% in 2026 and 16.6% in 2027 [8]

2025 年 12 月 16 日 双融日报 --鑫融讯 最近一年大盘走势 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 (%) 沪深300 相关研究 | 1、《双融日报》2025-12-15 | | --- | | 2、《双融日报》2025-12-12 | | 3、《双融日报》2025-12-11 | ▌ 华鑫市场情绪温度指标：（中性） 华鑫市场情绪温度指标显示，昨日市场情绪综合评分为 58 分，市场情绪处于"中性"。历史市场情绪趋势变化可参 考图表 1 ▌ 热点主题追踪 今日热点主题：有色金属、银行、券商 1、有色金属主题：美元降息提振需求预期，AI 数据中心拉 动边际增量。铜：金融属性叠加矿端紧张、冶炼厂减产，传 统需求韧性+AI 拉动，价格中枢上移。铝：国内产能见顶、 海外增量有限，十五五开局紧平衡强化。相关标的：紫金矿 业（601899）、中国铝业（601600） 分析师：万蓉 S1050511020001 wanrong@cfsc.com.cn 市场情绪：58 分（中性） 2、银行主题：银行股具有高股息特性，如中证银行指数的股 息率高达 6.02%，显著高于 10 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes the shift in policy focus from "expansion" to "quality improvement and efficiency enhancement," highlighting the importance of development quality in the economic context of 2026 [3][12][13] - The report anticipates a reasonable recovery in prices, with expectations that the Producer Price Index (PPI) will gradually narrow its year-on-year decline and eventually turn positive in 2026, supported by a combination of macroeconomic policies [4][14] - Three key supports for corporate profit recovery in 2026 are identified: the emergence of new productive forces as a growth engine, the acceleration of anti-involution policies, and resilient overseas demand contributing to strong export performance [4][15][16] Group 2 - The report suggests that the A-share market will increasingly correlate with fundamental performance in 2026, with a focus on profit recovery driven by price increases and structural improvements [5][17] - Historical patterns indicate that the A-share market will initially favor growth stocks, followed by cyclical stocks, and eventually consumer stocks, with three main investment themes: technology growth sectors led by AI, industries benefiting from anti-involution policies, and high-demand export sectors [5][17]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the power equipment sector [5][18]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the AI energy crisis, as warned by Nvidia's CEO, is creating significant opportunities for the domestic power equipment industry in China, which has a complete supply chain and is well-positioned to benefit from both domestic grid investments and global AI data center expansions [4][13]. - Key areas of growth include gas turbines, solid oxide fuel cells (SOFC), nuclear power, transmission and distribution equipment, transformers, and energy storage, all of which are expected to see increased demand due to the evolving energy needs of AI and data centers [4][14][15][16][17]. Summary by Sections Investment Viewpoints - The North American electricity shortage primarily benefits power equipment already integrated into overseas supply chains, with a focus on generation, storage, and transmission sectors [5][17]. - Specific companies highlighted for investment include: - Power Generation: Boying Welding [未评级] - Energy Storage: Sungrow Power, Tongfei Co. [Buy] - Transmission and Distribution: Jinpan Technology [Buy] - Solid State Transformers: Sifang Co., New Special Electric [Buy] - Power Supply for AI Data Centers: Zhongheng Electric, Magpow, Oulu Tong [Buy] - Liquid Cooling: Invec [Buy] [5][17]. Industry Performance - The power equipment sector has shown a performance increase of 36% over the past 12 months, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI 300 Index [3][45]. - Recent market performance indicates a 1.19% increase in the power equipment sector, ranking it fifth among 28 sub-industries [45]. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - The report provides earnings forecasts for several companies, with notable mentions including: - Sungrow Power: EPS forecast of 5.32 in 2024, with a Buy rating - Tongfei Co.: EPS forecast of 0.86 in 2024, with a Buy rating - Jinpan Technology: EPS forecast of 1.26 in 2024, with a Buy rating - Sifang Co.: EPS forecast of 0.86 in 2024, with a Buy rating - Magpow: EPS forecast of 1.08 in 2024, with a Buy rating [8][19].

Market Sentiment - The current market sentiment score is 61, indicating a "relatively hot" market condition, with historical trends suggesting support when the score is below 30 and resistance when above 70 [6][9]. Hot Themes Tracking - **Non-ferrous Metals**: Demand expectations are boosted by potential US interest rate cuts and AI data center growth. Copper prices are rising due to financial attributes and supply constraints, while aluminum production is peaking domestically with limited overseas growth. Key stocks include Zijin Mining (601899) and China Aluminum (601600) [6]. - **Banking Sector**: Bank stocks offer high dividend yields, with the China Securities Bank Index yielding 6.02%, significantly higher than the 10-year government bond yield. This makes bank stocks attractive for long-term investors amid economic slowdown. Relevant stocks include Agricultural Bank of China (601288) and Ningbo Bank (002142) [6]. - **Brokerage Firms**: The China Securities Regulatory Commission is focusing on differentiated regulation and supporting quality institutions. This shift aims to enhance capital efficiency and promote high-quality development in the securities industry. Key stocks include CITIC Securities (600030) and Guotai Junan (601211) [6]. Capital Flow Analysis - **Top Net Inflows**: The top stocks with significant net inflows include Dongshan Precision (111,427.82 million), Antai Technology (81,283.48 million), and BYD (77,704.54 million) [10]. - **Top Net Outflows**: Major stocks with net outflows include Sunshine Power (-216,556.52 million), Changying Precision (-145,086.43 million), and Tianfu Communication (-84,438.45 million) [12][21]. - **Financing and Margin Trading**: The top net buy stocks in financing include Xinyi Technology (170,239.29 million) and Dongshan Precision (56,350.38 million), while the top net sell stocks in margin trading include China Ping An (1,023.90 million) and Baiwei Storage (910.21 million) [12][13]. Industry Overview - The non-ferrous metals sector is experiencing a tightening balance due to peak domestic production and limited overseas growth, indicating potential investment opportunities [6]. - The banking sector remains a stable investment choice due to its high dividend yields, especially in a slowing economic environment [6]. - The brokerage industry is undergoing regulatory changes aimed at fostering quality over quantity, which may lead to a more sustainable growth trajectory for leading firms [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall macro - policy aims to stabilize the macro - leverage ratio. The liability growth rate of the real - sector is expected to decline in December 2025, and the government debt growth rate is also expected to continue to fall. - The economic situation on the asset side is weak, with the physical quantity data in October weaker than that in September. It is necessary to focus on when the economy will stabilize and pick up. - The stock - bond ratio is in an interval - shock state, currently with risk - preference at the upper limit of the interval and trending downward later. The stock - bond ratio is in favor of bonds, and the equity style is in favor of value [17][19][22]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 National Asset Balance Sheet Analysis - **Liability Side**: In November 2025, the liability growth rate of the real - sector was 8.7%, the same as the previous value, and it is expected to drop to around 8.5% in December. The government debt growth rate was 13.1% at the end of November, and is expected to fall to around 12.5% in December. The capital market was basically stable last week, mainly due to the renewal of 750 billion special treasury bonds on the 12th, with a high probability of subsequent marginal convergence [17][18]. - **Fiscal Policy**: The net increase of government bonds last week was 298.1 billion yuan, higher than the planned net decrease of 510.2 billion yuan. It is planned that the government bonds will have a net decrease of 119.2 billion yuan next week [2][18]. - **Monetary Policy**: Last week, the capital trading volume and price increased on a weekly average basis, and the term spread was stable. The one - year treasury bond yield fluctuated narrowly, closing at 1.39% on the weekend. The term spread between the ten - year and one - year treasury bonds was stable at 45 basis points. The yield fluctuation ranges of the ten - year and thirty - year treasury bonds are expected to be around 1.6% - 1.9% and 1.8% - 2.3% respectively [2][18]. - **Asset Side**: The physical quantity data in October was weaker than that in September. The annual real economic growth target in 2025 is about 5%, and the nominal economic growth target is about 4.9%. It is necessary to observe whether 5% will become the central target for China's nominal economic growth in the next 1 - 2 years [3][19]. 3.2 Stock - Bond Ratio and Stock - Bond Style - **Economic Cycle**: Since 2011, China has entered a period of declining potential economic growth, which seems to have ended in the fourth quarter of 2024. The government put forward three policy goals in 2016, and currently the liability - side convergence has not ended but the space is limited [6][20]. - **Overseas Situation**: China and the US are in a state of equal - power competition. If the valuation of the US technology field is re - evaluated, global funds may flow to China. It is necessary to focus on whether the RMB exchange rate will enter an appreciation channel [6][21]. - **Market Performance**: Last week, the capital market was stable, with stocks and bonds rising slightly, and the equity style shifting to growth - dominance. The bond yields at both long - and short - ends declined slightly, and the stock - bond ratio was in favor of bonds [7][21]. - **Investment Recommendation**: It is recommended to allocate long - term bonds and value - type equity assets. This week, it is recommended to allocate the Shanghai Composite 50 Index (80% position) and the 30 - year treasury bond ETF (20% position) [8][22]. 3.3 Industry Recommendation - **Industry Performance Review**: This week, A - shares fell on heavy volume. Among the Shenwan primary industries, communication, national defense and military industry, electronics, machinery, and power equipment had the largest increases, while coal, petroleum and petrochemicals, steel, real estate, and textile and clothing had the largest declines [30]. - **Industry Crowding and Trading Volume**: As of December 12, the top five crowded industries were electronics, power equipment, communication, machinery, and computers, while the bottom five were beauty care, comprehensive, petroleum and petrochemicals, steel, and coal. The trading volume of the whole A - shares rebounded this week, with the trading volume of some industries increasing and that of some industries decreasing [31][34]. - **Industry Valuation and Earnings**: This week, among the Shenwan primary industries, the PE (TTM) of communication, electronics, national defense and military industry, machinery, and comprehensive increased the most, while that of coal, petroleum and petrochemicals, steel, real estate, and textile and clothing decreased the most. Industries with high 2024 full - year earnings forecasts and relatively low current valuations include banks, securities, insurance, etc. [37][38]. - **Industry Prosperity**: Externally, the demand is declining marginally, with the global manufacturing PMI falling and the export growth rates of some countries fluctuating. Domestically, the second - hand housing price fell last week, and quantity indicators showed mixed trends [42]. - **Public Offering Market Review**: In the second week of December, most active public - offering equity funds outperformed the CSI 300. As of December 12, the net asset value of active public - offering equity funds increased slightly compared with that in Q4 2024 [60]. - **Industry Recommendation**: In the de - leveraging cycle, the stock - bond ratio is only slightly in favor of equities, and the value style is more likely to dominate. A recommended A + H dividend portfolio includes 13 stocks, and the A - share portfolio includes 20 stocks, mainly concentrated in industries such as banks, telecommunications, petroleum and petrochemicals, and transportation [9][65].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the automotive industry and humanoid robotics sector [2][4][6]. Core Insights - The humanoid robotics sector is expected to reach a pivotal point in the next one to two years, with significant advancements anticipated in the field of embodied intelligence [3][4]. - The automotive industry has achieved record monthly production and sales figures, with a notable increase in the production of new energy vehicles [5][6]. Summary by Sections Humanoid Robotics Sector - The Huaxin humanoid robotics index decreased by 0.94% this week, but has a cumulative return of 94.3% year-to-date [16]. - The sensor segment within the humanoid robotics sector showed positive performance, increasing by 1.1%, while other segments like actuators and reducers experienced declines [19]. - Key companies in the robotics sector, such as Zhongjian Technology and Zhongding Shares, saw significant stock price increases [24]. Automotive Sector - The CITIC automotive index rose by 0.1%, outperforming the broader market by 0.2% [32]. - The motorcycle and other segments within the automotive sector performed well, with a 1.6% increase, while automotive sales and services dropped by 3.5% [35]. - The automotive industry's PE ratio is at 31.8, placing it in the 36.4% percentile over the past four years, indicating a relatively stable valuation [48]. Key Companies and Profit Forecasts - Recommended companies include: - New Spring Co., Ltd. (EPS: 0.68, PE: 16.22, Rating: Buy) [8] - Shuanglin Co., Ltd. (EPS: 1.24, PE: 30.45, Rating: Buy) [8] - Jianghuai Automobile (EPS: 0.12, PE: 412.83, Rating: Buy) [8] - Other notable mentions include KaiDi Co., Ltd. and Kete Co., Ltd. [7][10].

Market Sentiment - The current market sentiment score is 37, indicating a "cold" market environment. Historical trends suggest that when the sentiment score is below or near 30, the market tends to find support, while scores above 70 may indicate resistance [4][7]. Hot Themes Tracking - **Non-ferrous Metals**: Demand expectations are boosted by potential US interest rate cuts and AI data center growth. Copper prices are rising due to financial attributes and supply constraints, while aluminum production is peaking domestically with limited overseas growth. Key stocks include Zijin Mining (601899) and China Aluminum (601600) [4]. - **Banking Sector**: Bank stocks offer high dividend yields, with the China Securities Bank Index yielding 6.02%, significantly higher than the 10-year government bond yield. In a slowing economy with increased market volatility, bank stocks are attractive for long-term investors. Relevant stocks include Agricultural Bank of China (601288) and Ningbo Bank (002142) [4]. - **Brokerage Firms**: The China Securities Regulatory Commission is focusing on differentiated regulation, aiming to support quality institutions while limiting weaker ones. This shift encourages a focus on high-quality development rather than mere scale. Key stocks include CITIC Securities (600030) and Guotai Junan (601211) [4]. Capital Flow Analysis - **Net Inflows**: The top net inflows for the previous trading day included Jin Feng Technology (111,683 million), Snowman Group (74,610 million), and Lens Technology (74,318 million) [8]. - **Net Outflows**: The largest net outflows were seen in ZTE Corporation (-412,321 million), Zhongji Xuchuang (-261,274 million), and Tianfu Communication (-201,784 million) [10]. - **Margin Trading**: The top net buy in margin trading included Shenghong Technology (50,362 million) and China Merchants Bank (21,630 million) [10]. Industry Overview - The banking sector is highlighted for its stability and high dividend yields, making it a preferred choice for long-term institutional investors during economic slowdowns [4]. - The non-ferrous metals sector is experiencing upward price movements due to supply constraints and increased demand from AI applications, indicating potential investment opportunities [4]. - The brokerage industry is undergoing regulatory changes aimed at enhancing quality over quantity, which may reshape competitive dynamics and investment strategies within the sector [4].

Economic Outlook - The overall tone of the Central Economic Work Conference indicates a return to normalcy, with no extraordinary stimulus expected in the baseline scenario[3] - The GDP growth target for 2026 is set at around 5% or slightly below, requiring an average annual growth of 4.17% over the next decade to achieve the goal of reaching the GDP per capita of moderately developed countries by 2035[3] Monetary Policy - The monetary policy will continue to be "appropriately loose," with an emphasis on "flexibility and efficiency"[3] - It is anticipated that there will be 1-2 instances of both reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions in 2026, with a focus on structural monetary policy tools[3] Fiscal Policy - The fiscal policy remains "more proactive," with an emphasis on "optimizing expenditure structure" and maintaining a deficit rate around 4% for 2026[4] - The scale of special government bonds is expected to be less than the previous year's 1.8 trillion yuan, shifting focus from scale to structural optimization[4] Domestic Demand Policy - The policy emphasizes "domestic demand as the main driver," with a combination of measures to optimize supply and stimulate consumption[4] - The expected scale of subsidies for replacing old products in 2026 is projected to remain at 300 billion yuan, the same as in 2025[4] Technology and Innovation - There is a strong emphasis on cultivating new growth drivers and expanding artificial intelligence initiatives, highlighting the urgency of technological innovation[8] - The government aims to establish a matching talent system, industrial chain, institutional framework, and financial system to support high-quality development actions in key industries[8] Risk Management - The risks associated with real estate and local government debt are considered controllable, with a shift in focus from risk prevention to other priorities in the current year's agenda[8] - The emphasis on risk management has been downgraded from fifth to eighth in priority, indicating improved control over these sectors[8] Asset Strategy - The focus on A-share market performance is driven by earnings recovery, with a correlation between A-share trends and fundamental economic conditions expected to increase in 2026[9] - If the Producer Price Index (PPI) turns positive in the second half of 2026, it could support a recovery in earnings and a potential upward trend in A-shares[9] Overall Economic Strategy - The strategy includes a focus on high-quality development, optimizing existing resources, and enhancing the quality of growth rather than merely expanding quantity[3] - The government aims to balance domestic economic work with international trade dynamics, ensuring stability in employment, prices, and overall economic growth[19]

Monetary Policy Insights - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut on December 11, 2025, marking the most divided vote since 2019, with three dissenters[4] - The dot plot indicates a hawkish stance, with only one expected rate cut in 2026 and a distribution showing three members predicting a rate hike[4] Economic Forecasts - The Fed upgraded its economic outlook while lowering inflation expectations, predicting a soft landing for the economy in 2026[4] - Unemployment rate forecasts were also revised downwards, indicating a more optimistic view on labor market conditions[4] Liquidity and Market Strategy - The end of quantitative tightening (QT) was confirmed, with the Fed initiating a reserve management program (RMP) to purchase $40 billion in short-term debt monthly[6] - The report suggests focusing on technology themes in U.S. equities, particularly in sectors like space, quantum, nuclear energy, and autonomous driving[6] Investment Recommendations - U.S. equities are expected to benefit from a stable economy and new liquidity points, while U.S. Treasury bonds are anticipated to remain volatile at high levels[6] - The dollar is projected to maintain a downward trend due to pressures from yen interventions and euro appreciation[7] Risk Factors - Potential risks include abrupt changes in overseas monetary policy, slower-than-expected AI investment progress, and economic downturns exceeding forecasts[8]