2025 年 11 月 20 日 双融日报 市场情绪：37 分（较冷） 最近一年大盘走势 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 (%) 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 | 1、《双融日报》2025-11-19 | | --- | | 2、《双融日报》2025-11-18 | | 3、《双融日报》2025-11-17 | ▌ 华鑫市场情绪温度指标：（较冷） 华鑫市场情绪温度指标显示，昨日市场情绪综合评分为 37 分，市场情绪处于"较冷"。历史市场情绪趋势变化可参 考图表 1 ▌ 热点主题追踪 今日热点主题：有色金属、电力设备、银行 1、有色金属主题：美元降息提振需求预期，AI 数据中心拉 动边际增量。铜：金融属性叠加矿端紧张、冶炼厂减产，传 统需求韧性+AI 拉动，价格中枢上移。铝：国内产能见顶、 海外增量有限，十五五开局紧平衡强化。相关标的：紫金矿 业（601899）、中国铝业（601600） 2、电力设备主题：在全球能源转型与数字化转型的交汇点， 人工智能正加速渗透电力行业。国际能源署（IEA）预测，到 2030 年，全球数据中心的耗电量将翻一番。作为世界电力大 国， ...

2025 年 11 月 19 日 双融日报 --鑫融讯 分析师：万蓉 S1050511020001 wanrong@cfsc.com.cn 市场情绪：47 分（中性） 最近一年大盘走势 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 (%) 沪深300 相关研究 | 1、《双融日报》2025-11-18 | | --- | | 2、《双融日报》2025-11-17 | | 3、《双融日报》2025-11-14 | ▌ 华鑫市场情绪温度指标：（中性） 华鑫市场情绪温度指标显示，昨日市场情绪综合评分为 47 分，市场情绪处于"中性"。历史市场情绪趋势变化可参 考图表 1 ▌ 热点主题追踪 今日热点主题：有色金属、电力设备、银行 1、有色金属主题：美元降息提振需求预期，AI 数据中心拉 动边际增量。铜：金融属性叠加矿端紧张、冶炼厂减产，传 统需求韧性+AI 拉动，价格中枢上移。铝：国内产能见顶、 海外增量有限，十五五开局紧平衡强化。相关标的：紫金矿 业（601899）、中国铝业（601600） 2、电力设备主题：在全球能源转型与数字化转型的交汇点， 人工智能正加速渗透电力行业 ...

2025 年 11 月 18 日 双融日报 --鑫融讯 分析师：万蓉 S1050511020001 wanrong@cfsc.com.cn 市场情绪：67 分（较热） 最近一年大盘走势 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 (%) 沪深300 2、电力设备主题：在全球能源转型与数字化转型的交汇点， 人工智能正加速渗透电力行业。国际能源署（IEA）预测，到 2030 年，全球数据中心的耗电量将翻一番。作为世界电力大 国，中国今年 1—9 月国家电网固定资产投资已超 4200 亿 元，同比增幅 8.1%，全年投资规模有望首次站上 6500 亿元 台阶。相关标的：国电南自（ 600268 ）、中国西电 （601179） 3、银行主题：银行股具有高股息特性，如中证银行指数的股 息率高达 6.02%，显著高于 10 年期国债收益率。在经济增 速放缓和市场波动加大时，银行股凭借稳定的分红能力，成 为险资、社保等长期资金的重要配置标的。相关标的：农业 银行（601288）、宁波银行（002142） ▌ 风险提示 宏观经济意外下滑、地缘政治风险、流动性收紧超预期、行 业政策低 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates a "Buy" rating for the company [1][8] Core Insights - The company's power business orders exceeded expectations, leading to significant revenue and profit growth in Q3 2025, with revenue contributing approximately 80% from testing power orders [4][6] - The testing power market's price competition has stabilized, resulting in a recovery of the company's gross margin, which reached 40.16% in Q3 2025, despite a year-on-year decline [5][6] - The demand for AI server power supplies and solid-state battery testing is driving growth, with the company actively expanding its overseas market presence and securing orders from leading clients [6][7] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenue of 370 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.97%, while Q3 revenue was 145 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 17.90% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 23.77% [3][4] - The net profit for Q3 2025 was 20.59 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 110.36% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 94.05% [3][4] - The company forecasts revenues of 527 million yuan, 731 million yuan, and 1.01 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.98, 1.52, and 2.12 yuan [8][10] Market Position and Strategy - The company has a strong technical foundation in high-power testing power supplies, particularly in the megawatt testing sector, and is recognized by clients for its capabilities [6][7] - The company is also focusing on solid-state battery testing equipment, having established partnerships with leading battery manufacturers [7]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" investment rating for the company, marking its first coverage [9]. Core Insights - The company focuses on the research, design, production, and sales of hydrodynamic oil film sliding bearings, with strong performance growth observed [4]. - In the first half of 2025, the company's revenue structure showed that sliding bearing components, total sliding bearings, and related products generated revenues of 0.95 billion, 0.81 billion, and 0.47 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of +7.73%, +1.12%, and -3.09% [4]. - The company has made significant technological breakthroughs in high-performance bearing technology, particularly in hydrodynamic oil film sliding bearings and new material applications [4]. - The acquisition of German Levicron GmbH for 8.5 million euros enhances the company's technological layout and international competitiveness [5][7]. - The company has secured contracts for gas turbine bearings, including a project worth approximately 9.8 million yuan with Dongfang Electric [8]. Revenue and Profitability - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.62 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 48.04%, with a net profit of 0.36 billion yuan, up 60.87% [5]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenues of 4.45 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.25%, and a net profit of 1.02 billion yuan, up 19.68% [5]. - The gross margin and net margin for the first three quarters were 37.22% and 22.97%, respectively [5]. Future Projections - The company forecasts revenues of 5.85 billion, 6.65 billion, and 8.16 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.54, 1.86, and 2.14 yuan [9][11]. - The projected PE ratios for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 35.5, 29.5, and 25.6, respectively [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [2][7] Core Insights - The company is focusing on dual business development in cable and oil services, with significant overseas expansion efforts [5] - The upcoming production of the aluminum project in Angola is expected to contribute to profit elasticity due to low-cost hydropower resources [6] - Revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 5.344 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13.3%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 257 million, a decrease of 7.38% [5] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company forecasts revenues of 74.25 billion, 92.82 billion, and 112.84 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.68, 1.23, and 2.04 [7][9] - The projected growth rates for revenue are 17.0% in 2025, 25.0% in 2026, and 21.6% in 2027 [9][11] Market Performance - The company's stock price is currently at 36.98 yuan, with a market capitalization of 18.9 billion [2] - The stock has a 52-week price range of 11.12 to 39.22 yuan [2]

Group 1 - The report highlights a critical week for the US stock market, focusing on Nvidia's earnings report and non-farm payroll data, with expectations of liquidity improvement and sentiment recovery [3][13][20] - The A-share market is expected to experience fluctuations, with attention on price increases in sectors like new energy, non-ferrous metals, and chemicals, as well as low-level rebounds in dividend-paying sectors such as banking and coal [3][29] Group 2 - The report indicates that the overall A-share index has declined, with small-cap stocks outperforming, while the ChiNext index has shown weakness [4][30] - In terms of sector performance, industries such as consumer goods, retail, and basic chemicals have led gains, while sectors like telecommunications, electronics, and military defense have faced declines [4][31] Group 3 - The report notes a slight recovery in trading activity within the A-share market, with an increase in average daily trading volume and turnover rate [5][39] - The report also mentions a rise in panic sentiment domestically, with the implied volatility of the CSI 300 ETF increasing [5][43] Group 4 - The report discusses the weak performance of social financing and credit in October, with new loans significantly below expectations, indicating a cooling economy [23][26] - It highlights that the economic indicators, including exports and fixed asset investment, have shown a downward trend, with retail sales continuing to decline for five consecutive months [26][27] Group 5 - The report emphasizes the focus on sectors experiencing price increases, low-level rebounds, and technology themes, including military industry, domestic semiconductors, AI applications, and new energy [29][30] - It also points out that the electronic industry is nearing historical high valuation levels in terms of PE and PB ratios [33][35]

Group 1: Computing Power Dynamics - The rental prices for computing power remain stable, with Tencent Cloud pricing at 5.73 RMB/hour for A100-40G configuration and Alibaba Cloud at 31.58 RMB/hour for a similar setup [14][16]. - Sina Weibo's AI team has open-sourced the VibeThinker-1.5B model, which has 1.5 billion parameters and a training cost of less than $8,000, achieving significant performance in logical reasoning tasks [15][28]. Group 2: AI Application Dynamics - Kimi's weekly traffic increased by 39.84%, making it the fastest-growing AI application in terms of user engagement [29][30]. - OpenAI's release of the GPT-5.1 series marks a significant advancement in human-computer interaction, with improvements in user experience and naturalness of dialogue [31][32]. Group 3: AI Financing Trends - AI code editor Cursor completed a $2.3 billion Series D funding round, achieving a valuation of $29.3 billion, driven by its innovative CursorXComposer dual-engine architecture [46][48]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Tencent reported a total revenue of 192.87 billion RMB for Q3 2025, a 15% year-on-year increase, with significant growth in its financial technology and enterprise services segments [58]. - Companies to watch include Yida Information (001314.SZ), Weike Technology (301196.SZ), and Nengke Technology (603859.SH), all showing strong growth potential in their respective fields [59][60].

Core Insights - The report indicates a neutral market sentiment with a score of 43, suggesting a balanced outlook for investors [5][8]. - Key themes identified include non-ferrous metals, power equipment, and banking, each showing potential for investment based on current market conditions [5]. Non-Ferrous Metals - The non-ferrous metals sector is expected to benefit from anticipated demand due to a potential interest rate cut by the US dollar and the growth of AI data centers, which is driving marginal increases in demand [5]. - Copper prices are expected to rise due to financial attributes, supply constraints, and resilient traditional demand, while aluminum is facing a tight balance due to peak domestic capacity and limited overseas growth [5]. - Relevant stocks include Zijin Mining (601899) and Aluminum Corporation of China (601600) [5]. Power Equipment - The power equipment sector is positioned at the intersection of global energy transition and digital transformation, with AI accelerating its penetration into the industry [5]. - The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that global data center electricity consumption will double by 2030, indicating significant growth potential [5]. - In China, the State Grid's fixed asset investment exceeded 420 billion yuan from January to September, with an expected annual investment of over 650 billion yuan for the first time [5]. - Key stocks in this sector include State Grid Corporation of China (600268) and China XD Electric (601179) [5]. Banking - Banking stocks are highlighted for their high dividend characteristics, with the CSI Bank Index yielding 6.02%, significantly higher than the 10-year government bond yield [5]. - In a slowing economic environment with increased market volatility, banking stocks are becoming important investment targets for long-term funds such as insurance and social security [5]. - Notable banking stocks include Agricultural Bank of China (601288) and Ningbo Bank (002142) [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The marginal convergence of macro - liquidity has been confirmed, and the subsequent basic assumption is a fundamental combination of stable profits, converging macro - liquidity, and declining risk appetite. The cost - performance ratio of stocks and bonds favors bonds, and the equity style favors value. The recommended allocation combination is long - term bonds plus value - type equity assets. Specifically, the Shanghai Composite 50 Index (80% position) and the 30 - year Treasury Bond ETF (20% position) are recommended [8][24]. - China is in a marginal de - leveraging process. The liability growth rate of the real - sector is expected to decline, and the government's liability growth rate will also trend downwards. The economy on the asset side needs to be observed for signs of stabilization or marginal upward movement [2][17]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 National Balance Sheet Analysis 3.1.1 Liability Side - In October 2025, the liability growth rate of the real - sector was 8.6%, down from 8.8% previously, with a larger - than - expected decline. It is expected to drop slightly to around 8.5% in November and continue to decline, returning to the de - leveraging phase. By the end of the year, it is expected to fall to around 8.3% [2][17]. - The financial sector's liquidity marginally converged last week. The high - point of liquidity in November is estimated to have occurred on the 6th, and the probability of marginal convergence of macro - liquidity is relatively high in the future [2][17]. - The government's liability growth rate was 13.9% at the end of October 2025, down from 14.5% previously, and is expected to decline to around 13.0% in November and by the end of the year [3][18]. 3.1.2 Fiscal Policy - Last week, the net increase in government bonds (including national and local bonds) was 476.1 billion yuan, higher than the planned 264.8 billion yuan. Next week, the planned net increase is 228.3 billion yuan [3][18]. 3.1.3 Monetary Policy - Last week, the average weekly trading volume of funds decreased, the price of funds increased, and the term spread slightly decreased. The yield of one - year Treasury bonds fluctuated narrowly, closing at 1.41% at the weekend. The lower limit of the one - year Treasury bond yield is estimated to be around 1.3%, with a central value of around 1.4%. The term spread between ten - year and one - year Treasury bonds slightly decreased to 40 basis points. The future fluctuation ranges of ten - year and thirty - year Treasury bond yields are estimated to be around 1.6% - 1.9% and 1.8% - 2.3% respectively [3][18]. 3.1.4 Asset Side - In October, the physical quantity data continued to weaken compared to September. The annual real economic growth target for 2025 is around 5%, and the nominal economic growth target is around 4.9%. It is necessary to observe whether this nominal economic growth rate will become the central target for China's nominal economic growth in the next 1 - 2 years [4][19]. 3.2 Stock - Bond Cost - Performance and Stock - Bond Style - Last week, the liquidity marginally converged, and the high - point of liquidity in November is estimated to have occurred on the 6th, with a high probability of subsequent marginal convergence of macro - liquidity. Stocks performed poorly, and bonds were stable. The value style in the equity market continued to dominate. The cost - performance ratio of stocks and bonds slightly favored bonds. The ten - year Treasury bond yield remained stable at 1.81%, the one - year Treasury bond yield increased by 1 basis point to 1.41%, the term spread slightly decreased to 40 basis points, and the thirty - year Treasury bond yield decreased by 1 basis point to 2.15% [6][21]. - The broad - based rotation strategy outperformed the CSI 300 Index by 1.1 percentage points last week. Since its establishment in July 2024, the broad - based rotation strategy has underperformed the CSI 300 Index by - 6.62 percentage points, with a maximum drawdown of 12.1% (compared to the CSI 300's maximum drawdown of 15.7%) [6][21]. 3.3 Industry Recommendation 3.3.1 Industry Performance Review - This week, the A - share market declined slightly. Among the Shenwan primary industries, the top - performing sectors were comprehensive, textile and apparel, commercial retail, beauty care, and pharmaceutical biology, with weekly increases of 7%, 4.4%, 4.1%, 3.7%, and 3.3% respectively. The sectors with the largest declines were communication, electronics, computer, machinery and equipment, and national defense and military industry, with weekly changes of - 4.8%, - 4.8%, - 3%, - 2.2%, and - 2.2% respectively [29]. 3.3.2 Industry Crowding and Trading Volume - As of November 14, the top five crowded industries were power equipment, electronics, pharmaceutical biology, basic chemicals, and non - ferrous metals, with crowding levels of 15.6%, 14.5%, 7.2%, 7.1%, and 6% respectively. The bottom five were beauty care, comprehensive, steel, social services, and petroleum and petrochemicals, with levels of 0.2%, 0.5%, 0.8%, 0.8%, and 0.8% respectively [31]. - This week, the top five industries with increased crowding were pharmaceutical biology, commercial retail, food and beverage, real estate, and banks, with increases of 2.4%, 0.6%, 0.6%, 0.4%, and 0.3% respectively. The bottom five with decreased crowding were power equipment, automobiles, computers, electronics, and machinery and equipment, with changes of - 1.6%, - 1.3%, - 0.9%, - 0.5%, and - 0.5% respectively [31]. - The average daily trading volume of the entire A - share market was 2.04 trillion yuan this week, slightly higher than last week's 2.01 trillion yuan. The industries with the highest year - on - year growth in trading volume were food and beverage, comprehensive, commercial retail, basic chemicals, and beauty care, with volume changes of 59.1%, 35.2%, 35%, 34.7%, and 19.7% respectively. The industries with the smallest increases in trading volume were media, computer, steel, banks, and coal, with volume changes of - 21.7%, - 21.6%, - 20%, - 13%, and - 10.4% respectively [33]. 3.3.3 Industry Valuation and Profitability - This week, among the Shenwan primary industries, the sectors with the largest increases in PE(TTM) were comprehensive, commercial retail, beauty care, textile and apparel, and basic chemicals, with changes of 5.3%, 5.1%, 4.9%, 4.6%, and 4.3% respectively. The sectors with the smallest increases were communication, electronics, national defense and military industry, machinery and equipment, and computer, with valuation changes of - 2.4%, - 1.9%, - 1.7%, - 1.3%, and - 1.2% respectively [36]. - As of November 14, 2025, industries with high full - year profit forecasts in 2024 and relatively low current valuations compared to history include banks, insurance, petroleum and petrochemicals, transportation, beauty care, new energy, and consumer electronics [38]. 3.3.4 Industry Prosperity - Externally, there was a marginal recovery. In October, the global manufacturing PMI rose from 50.7 to 50.8, and the PMIs of major economies showed mixed changes. The CCFI index increased by 3.4% week - on - week in the latest week. Port cargo throughput declined. South Korea's export growth rate dropped to 3.6% in October and rose to 6.4% in the first 10 days of November. Vietnam's export growth rate slightly decreased from 25.3% in September to 18.2% in October [40]. - Domestically, second - hand housing prices fell in the latest week, and quantity indicators showed mixed changes. Highway truck traffic declined. The capacity utilization rate of ten industries, which had been rising from May to August 2025, declined from September to October and slightly rebounded in November but remained at a historical low. Automobile trading volume was at a relatively high level compared to the same period in history, new - home sales remained at a historical low, and second - hand housing sales declined seasonally compared to history. As of November 9, the national urban second - hand housing listing price index decreased by 0.39% week - on - week. As of October 31, the producer price index increased by 0.3% week - on - week [40]. 3.3.5 Public Fund Market Review - In the second week of November (November 10 - 14), most active public equity funds outperformed the CSI 300. The 10%, 20%, 30%, and 50% weekly performance levels were 2.3%, 1.1%, 0.5%, and - 0.5% respectively, while the CSI 300 declined by 1.1% weekly [53]. - As of November 14, the net asset value of active public equity funds was estimated to be 3.89 trillion yuan, slightly higher than 3.66 trillion yuan in Q4 2024 [53]. 3.3.6 Industry Recommendations - In the de - leveraging cycle, the cost - performance ratio of stocks and bonds only slightly favors equities, and the value style is more likely to dominate. Dividend - type stocks are expected to have three characteristics: no balance - sheet expansion, good profitability, and survival. Combining these characteristics with the under - allocation in the public fund's quarterly report, an A + H dividend portfolio of 13 stocks and an A - share portfolio of 20 stocks are recommended, mainly concentrated in industries such as banks, telecommunications, petroleum and petrochemicals, and transportation [59].