- The report mentions an A-share timing model, specifically a "wave model" that turned bullish mid-week, marking the first shift to a higher position since November 14, 2025. This model is used to determine optimal entry points for A-share investments based on market signals [1][29] - A short-term timing model for A-shares also turned bullish on major broad-based indices on Friday, indicating a positive outlook for traditional sectors such as consumption, infrastructure, real estate, and manufacturing [1][29] - The report highlights a "position timing strategy" for the A-share market, which is used to adjust equity exposure based on market conditions. This strategy is supported by historical net value data and performance metrics [11][12] - A "multi-long-short timing strategy" for the A-share market is also discussed, which involves leveraging long and short positions in futures to optimize returns. This strategy is visualized through net value curves and position recommendations [13][14] - The report includes a "dividend growth timing strategy" for A-shares, focusing on stocks with high dividend yields and growth potential. This strategy is designed to capture returns from dividend-paying stocks while managing risk [21] - A "small and micro-cap timing strategy" for A-shares is mentioned, targeting smaller market capitalization stocks for potential higher returns. This strategy is based on specific timing signals for small-cap stocks [17][18] - The report also discusses a "Hong Kong stock position timing strategy," which adjusts exposure to Hong Kong equities based on macroeconomic and market signals. This strategy emphasizes resilience and flexibility in sectors like central enterprises and internet companies [15] - A "gold timing strategy" is included, which maintains a medium position in gold while avoiding silver due to uncertain market conditions. This strategy is based on the U.S. dollar index and other macroeconomic factors [22] - The report outlines "ETF portfolio strategies," including equity-biased and bond-biased portfolios. These strategies are designed to optimize returns through diversified ETF investments, with performance tracked through net value curves [24][26]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current RMB exchange - rate appreciation is more likely the third scenario where domestic entities' risk preference changes, so it does not benefit Hong Kong stocks, and the sustainability of the RMB's strength is questionable. It is hoped that future RMB appreciation will be the first scenario, corresponding to the burst of the US tech bubble [17]. - In the de - leveraging cycle, the bias of the stock - bond ratio in favor of equities is limited, and the value style has a higher probability of relative dominance [9][58]. Summary by Directory 1. National Balance Sheet Analysis - **Liability Side**: In November 2025, the liability growth rate of the real sector was 8.6% (previous value 8.7%), expected to decline to around 8.3% in December. The money market continued to loosen marginally last week. The central bank's stance indicates that the goal of stabilizing the macro - leverage ratio remains unchanged, waiting for the quantitative fiscal target from the Two Sessions in 2026 [2][16]. - **Fiscal Policy**: Last week, the net increase in government bonds was 1707 billion yuan (higher than the planned 1148 billion yuan), and the planned net increase next week is 174 billion yuan. The government liability growth rate is expected to decline to around 12.4% in December from 13.1% in November [2][18]. - **Monetary Policy**: Last week, the average weekly trading volume and price of funds increased, and the term spread widened. The one - year Treasury yield dropped to 1.29% at the weekend. The market may have over - anticipated a 2026 interest - rate cut. The term spread between the ten - year and one - year Treasuries widened to 55 basis points. The money - market loosening may be approaching its limit [3][18]. - **Asset Side**: In November, physical quantity data showed signs of stabilizing at a low level. The full - year nominal economic growth target for 2025 is 4.9%, and it is necessary to confirm whether 5% will be the central target for China's nominal economic growth in the next 1 - 2 years [3][19]. 2. Stock - Bond Cost - Effectiveness and Stock - Bond Style - **Economic Cycle**: Since 2011, China has entered a downward cycle of potential economic growth, which seems to have ended in Q4 2024. The Chinese government put forward three policy goals in 2016. Currently, the convergence on the liability side is not over but has limited space. If the valuation of the US technology sector is re - evaluated, global funds may flow to China [6][20]. - **Last Week's Market Performance**: The money market continued to loosen, risk preference rose, and the growth style dominated. The stock - bond ratio favored stocks. The ten - year Treasury yield rose 1 basis point to 1.84%, the one - year yield dropped 7 basis points to 1.29%, and the 30 - year yield remained stable at 2.22%. The broad - based rotation strategy underperformed the CSI 300 by - 0.32 pct last week and - 5.41 pct since July 2024 [7][21]. - **Investment Recommendations**: Bonds at the long end are considered to have investment value. For equities, a neutral stance is taken, with a focus on style. Before seeing the government's bond - issuance plan, the value style is expected to dominate. This week, the Shanghai 50 Index (60% position), the CSI 1000 Index (20% position), and the 30 - year Treasury ETF (20% position) are recommended [8][22]. 3. Industry Recommendations - **Industry Performance Review**: This week, A - shares rose with increased trading volume. Among Shenwan primary industries, non - ferrous metals, national defense and military industry, power equipment, electronics, and building materials had the largest increases, while beauty care, social services, banks, coal, and food and beverage had the largest declines [28]. - **Industry Crowding and Trading Volume**: As of December 26, the top five crowded industries were electronics, power equipment, machinery, national defense and military industry, and non - ferrous metals. The trading volume of the whole A - share market rebounded. Transportation, non - ferrous metals, and other industries had the highest trading - volume growth rates, while banks, coal, and other industries had the largest declines [31][32]. - **Industry Valuation and Earnings**: This week, the PE(TTM) of non - ferrous metals, national defense and military industry, and other industries increased the most, while that of social services, beauty care, and other industries decreased the most. Industries with high 2024 full - year earnings forecasts and relatively low current valuations include banks, securities, and others [36][37]. - **Industry Prosperity**: Externally, there was a marginal decline. The global manufacturing PMI decreased in November, and export growth rates of some countries changed. Domestically, the second - hand housing price dropped, and quantity indicators fluctuated. The highway truck traffic volume declined, and the industrial capacity utilization rate showed a fluctuating trend [41]. - **Public - Fund Market Review**: In the fourth week of December, most active public - fund equity funds outperformed the CSI 300. As of December 26, the net asset value of active public - fund equity funds slightly increased compared to Q4 2024 [55]. - **Industry Recommendations**: In the de - leveraging cycle, the stock - bond ratio favors equities to a limited extent, and the value style is more likely to dominate. The recommended A + H dividend portfolio includes 13 stocks, and the A - share portfolio includes 20 stocks, mainly in industries such as banks, telecommunications, and oil and petrochemicals [9][58].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the pharmaceutical industry as of December 28, 2025 [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the intensive policy support for brain-computer interface (BCI) technology development, particularly in the medical field, with several policies already implemented [2] - It emphasizes the significant market opportunity in radiation therapy equipment, particularly the ZAP-X system, which is expected to capture a substantial share of the growing market for non-invasive tumor radiation treatment [3] - The introduction of pathology fee reforms is seen as a breakthrough for the commercialization of AI applications in pathology, allowing for better integration of AI-assisted diagnostics into the pricing structure [5] - The report discusses the trend of Chinese innovative drugs entering international markets, which is expected to reduce domestic competition and provide new valuation anchors for these companies [6] - It also notes the promising developments in oral autoimmune drugs and small nucleic acid drugs, with several companies making significant progress in clinical trials [7][9] Summary by Sections 1. Policy Support for BCI Technology - In July 2025, a joint opinion was issued by multiple government departments to promote BCI industry innovation, with medical health being a core application area [2] - The National Medical Products Administration (NMPA) has prioritized the approval of implantable BCI medical devices, with expected registration certificates to be issued by Q1 2026 [2] 2. Radiation Therapy Equipment Market - The ZAP-X system is designed for precise radiation therapy for brain tumors, with a significant patient population in China, estimated at 1.5 million new cases of brain metastases annually [3] - The non-invasive tumor radiation treatment market is projected to grow from RMB 27.2 billion in 2018 to RMB 59.4 billion by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.9% [3] 3. AI in Pathology - The NMPA's new guidelines for pathology services include AI-assisted diagnostics as an expansion item, which will help streamline the commercialization of AI technologies in pathology [5] 4. Innovative Drug Exports - The report notes that partnerships between Chinese companies and international firms are increasing, providing funding and reducing competition in the domestic market [6] - The innovative drug index has risen by 38.11% since the beginning of 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index [6] 5. Oral Autoimmune Drugs - Takeda's new oral TYK2 inhibitor has shown positive results in clinical trials for psoriasis, indicating a potential breakthrough in treatment options [7] - Several domestic companies are also advancing in the development of oral autoimmune drugs targeting various conditions [7] 6. Small Nucleic Acid Drugs - Yuyuan Pharmaceutical's YKYY032 injection has received clinical approval from both the FDA and NMPA, with multiple companies in China advancing in the small nucleic acid drug space [9] - The report highlights the reliability of domestic technology platforms as they progress through clinical trials [9] 7. Stock Recommendations - The report recommends specific companies based on the identified opportunities, including Meihua Medical for BCI technology, Baiyang Pharmaceutical for ZAP-X, and Yuyuan Pharmaceutical for small nucleic acid drugs [11]

Core Insights - The report indicates that the current market sentiment score is 82, categorizing it as "overheated," suggesting a high level of investor optimism and potential market risks [5][8][20] - Key themes identified include liquid cooling technology, banking stocks, and brokerage firms, each showing distinct investment opportunities [5] Market Sentiment - The market sentiment temperature indicator shows a score of 82, indicating an "overheated" market, which may lead to resistance as historical trends suggest that scores above 70 can create market pressure [5][8] - A cautious approach is recommended as the market enters a consolidation phase, with support expected when sentiment drops below 30 [8] Sector Analysis Liquid Cooling Theme - Liquid cooling technology is gaining traction due to its efficiency and lower Power Usage Effectiveness (PUE), becoming a mainstream solution for data centers [5] - Major AI companies, including NVIDIA and Google, are adopting this technology, with Google increasing its TPU chip shipment target by 50% to 6 million units by 2026 [5] - Related stocks include Invec (002837) and Feilong Co., Ltd. (002536) [5] Banking Sector - Banking stocks are highlighted for their high dividend yields, with the China Securities Banking Index yielding 6.02%, significantly above the 10-year government bond yield [5] - In a slowing economy with increased market volatility, banking stocks are seen as stable investment options for long-term funds [5] - Key banking stocks include Agricultural Bank of China (601288) and Ningbo Bank (002142) [5] Brokerage Sector - The report discusses regulatory changes proposed by the China Securities Regulatory Commission aimed at enhancing the quality of development in the brokerage sector [5] - The focus is shifting from scale and speed to quality, with an emphasis on risk management and capital efficiency [5] - Notable brokerage firms mentioned include CITIC Securities (600030) and Guotai Junan Securities (601211) [5]

Market Sentiment - The current market sentiment score is 85, indicating an "overheated" market condition, which suggests a high level of investor optimism [6][9][21] - Historical trends show that when the sentiment score is below or close to 30, the market tends to find support, while scores above 70 indicate potential resistance [9] Hot Themes Tracking - **Liquid Cooling Theme**: Liquid cooling solutions are becoming mainstream in data centers due to their higher cooling efficiency and lower PUE. Major AI companies like NVIDIA and Google are accelerating the adoption of this technology, with Google increasing its TPU chip shipment target by 50% to 6 million units by 2026. Related stocks include Yingwei Technology (002837) and Feilong Co., Ltd. (002536) [6] - **Banking Theme**: Bank stocks are characterized by high dividend yields, with the China Securities Bank Index yielding 6.02%, significantly higher than the 10-year government bond yield. In a slowing economy with increased market volatility, bank stocks are becoming important investment targets for long-term funds like insurance and social security. Related stocks include Agricultural Bank of China (601288) and Ningbo Bank (002142) [6] - **Brokerage Theme**: The chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission emphasized the need for differentiated regulation and support for quality institutions. The focus is shifting from scale and speed to high-quality development, encouraging smaller firms to differentiate their operations. Related stocks include CITIC Securities (600030) and Guotai Junan Securities (601211) [6] Capital Flow Analysis - The top ten stocks with the highest net inflow include Demingli (001309.SZ) with a net inflow of 955.33 million, and Tianji Co., Ltd. (002759.SZ) with 884.72 million [10] - The top ten stocks with the highest net outflow include Xinyi Sheng (300502.SZ) with a net outflow of -927.80 million, and Shenghong Technology (300476.SZ) with -438.13 million [12] - The top ten industries with the highest net inflow include the electronics sector with 236.04 million, and the non-ferrous metals sector with 140.84 million [19] Investment Strategy Recommendations - In an "overheated" market, it is advisable to consider reducing positions to avoid buying at market peaks and to be cautious of potential market bubbles [21] - The report suggests that during periods of high market sentiment, investors should be vigilant and may need to adjust their strategies accordingly to mitigate risks associated with overvaluation [21]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [2]. Core Insights - The company has been deeply engaged in the automotive bumper sector for over 30 years and is a leading supplier of automotive exterior parts, with steady growth in its main business [4][12]. - The global automotive bumper market is projected to grow from 156.8 billion yuan in 2022 to 200.6 billion yuan by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.4% from 2022 to 2025 [4][76]. - The company has established strong relationships with major clients, including well-known electric vehicle manufacturers and luxury brands, which has significantly improved its profitability [5][84]. - The company is actively expanding into the emerging market of humanoid robots, focusing on lightweight materials to enhance efficiency and safety [6][94]. Summary by Sections 1. Automotive Bumper Leader with Steady Growth - The company has a robust production capacity exceeding 6 million sets of automotive bumpers annually and has established a comprehensive supply chain for luxury and mainstream electric vehicle clients [16][12]. - The company has successfully entered the supply chains of major brands such as BMW, Beijing Benz, and Tesla, contributing to its revenue growth [5][88]. 2. Broad Market Space for Plastic Exterior Parts - The global market for automotive exterior parts is expected to reach 53.8 billion USD by 2025 and 89.5 billion USD by 2032, with a CAGR of 7.2% from 2025 to 2032 [50]. - Bumpers are critical safety components in vehicles, with a high unit value compared to other parts, making them essential for the company's revenue [55][59]. 3. Commitment to Major Client Strategy - The company has a high concentration of clients, with the top five clients accounting for approximately 59.56% of total sales in 2024, indicating a stable client structure [81][84]. - The company has secured significant orders from major clients, including Tesla, which has become a key contributor to its revenue [5][84]. 4. Lightweight Humanoid Robots as a New Market - The demand for lightweight designs in humanoid robots is increasing, as it enhances energy efficiency and operational flexibility [94][100]. - The company is leveraging its expertise in automotive plastic parts to expand into the humanoid robot sector, with a projected market size exceeding 10 billion yuan by 2030 [6][94]. 5. Profit Forecast - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 7.89 billion yuan in 2025, with a net profit of 467 million yuan, reflecting steady growth in its core automotive bumper business and new ventures [7][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for investment in the consumer electronics sector, particularly highlighting opportunities in AI glasses and related technologies [1]. Core Insights - Apple plans to release its first smart glasses, Apple Glass, in 2026, which will feature the same SiP chip as the Apple Watch, emphasizing lightweight design and low power consumption [3][4]. - The XREAL 1S, a new consumer-grade AR glasses product, was launched on December 18, 2025, featuring the X1 spatial computing chip and innovative 2D to 3D conversion capabilities, targeting a younger audience [5][15]. - The AR/AI glasses industry is expected to experience significant growth, with major companies entering the market, indicating a potential shift in consumer electronics towards new smart devices [5][15]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The consumer electronics sector has shown varied performance over different time frames, with a 1-month decline of 0.4%, a 3-month decline of 5.6%, and a 12-month increase of 35.5% [2]. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - Notable companies in the sector include: - GoerTek (未评级) with an EPS forecast of 0.79 for 2024 and a PE ratio of 37.52 [8][17]. - Luxshare Precision (未评级) with an EPS forecast of 1.86 for 2024 and a PE ratio of 31.45 [8][17]. - Yujing Technology (Buy) with an EPS forecast of -1.83 for 2024 and a PE ratio of -19.43 [8][17]. - Rockchip (未评级) with an EPS forecast of 1.42 for 2024 and a PE ratio of 124.30 [8][17]. - Hengxuan Technology (未评级) with an EPS forecast of 3.86 for 2024 and a PE ratio of 78.57 [8][17]. Industry Dynamics - The smartphone market in China saw a 13% increase in sales for foreign brands in October 2025, with total smartphone sales reaching 32.27 million units, a growth of 8.7% [20]. - Apple is planning to expand its iPhone product line significantly, with at least seven new models expected by 2027, indicating a strategic shift in its product offerings [21][24].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies, including 德明利 (Demingli), 通富微电 (Tongfu Microelectronics), 海光信息 (Haiguang Information), 寒武纪 (Cambricon), and 中芯国际 (SMIC) [9][17]. Core Insights - Micron Technology announced its exit from the consumer market by the end of February 2026 to focus on the HBM segment, which is crucial for AI data centers, reflecting a shift in global storage demand from cyclical fluctuations to AI-driven structural growth [4][5][15]. - The MUSA Developer Conference by Moore Threads showcased significant advancements in GPU architecture and AI computing capabilities, indicating a strong focus on the domestic semiconductor industry [6][16]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The electronics sector has shown strong performance with a 70.8% increase over the past 12 months, significantly outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [2][3]. Market Dynamics - The storage market is expected to grow by 27.8% in 2025, driven by rising prices and demand, particularly benefiting major players like Samsung [20]. - NAND Flash prices have surged by 246% this year, with a significant portion of the increase occurring in the last 60 days, impacting the cost structure of consumer electronics [22][33]. Key Company Developments - Micron's HBM product revenue reached nearly $2 billion in the last fiscal quarter, indicating a strong market position in high-margin segments [4][15]. - Longxin Technology has initiated its IPO process, aiming to become the first domestic storage stock in the capital market [5][15]. - SK Hynix has introduced a 256GB DDR5 RDIMM memory module, marking a significant advancement in AI and cloud data center applications [28][29]. Investment Focus - The report suggests focusing on companies within the domestic semiconductor supply chain, including 佰维存储 (Baiwei Storage), 江波龙 (Jiangbolong), and 中微公司 (Zhongwei Company) [6][16].

3 2025 年 12 月 24 日 谷歌联手 Meta 强化 TPU 对 PyTorch 的支持，亚 马逊拟百亿投资 OpenAI 推荐(维持) 投资要点 分析师：吕卓阳 S1050523060001 lvzy@cfsc.com.cn 行业相对表现 表现 1M 3M 12M 电子(申万) 6.7 43.4 70.8 沪深 300 2.1 15.0 18.8 市场表现 -20 0 20 40 60 80 (%) 电子 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《电子行业周报：存储芯片进入 新一轮周期，国产 AI 芯片大时代已 经开启》2025-09-29 2、《电子行业周报：高端光刻机国 产化进程加速，华为全联接大会成 功举办》2025-09-23 3、《电子行业周报：对原产于美国 的进口相关模拟芯片进行反倾销立 案 调 查 ， 英 伟 达 发 布 全 新 RubinCPXGPU》2025-09-14 ▌谷歌联手 Meta 强化 TPU 对 PyTorch 的支持 据报道，谷歌正在推进一项新计划，使其 AI 芯片在运行 PyTorch 方面表现更佳，此举旨在挑战英伟达长期以来在 AI 芯片领 ...

- The report does not contain any specific quantitative models or factors for analysis. It primarily focuses on macroeconomic trends, asset allocation strategies, and market observations[1][2][4]. - The report discusses the performance of various asset classes, including equities, bonds, commodities, and currencies, but does not provide detailed quantitative factor construction or modeling processes[10][11][12]. - It highlights the seasonal effects and market trends, such as the spring rally in Hong Kong and A-shares markets, but does not delve into quantitative factor testing or modeling[38][39][63]. - The report mentions a rotation timing model for high-growth and dividend strategies, which uses indicators like term spreads, social financing growth, CPI, PPI, U.S. bond rates, and fund flows. However, it does not provide detailed formulas or construction processes for these indicators[59]. - The rotation strategy achieved an annualized return of +17.54%, outperforming the benchmark by +11.77%, with a current allocation recommendation of 60% dividend and 40% growth[59]. - Seasonal effects are noted, such as small-cap stocks outperforming in February and March, while large-cap stocks dominate in April and December[63]. - The report provides market sentiment analysis, including institutional buying intentions and external capital flows, but does not include quantitative factor testing or modeling[51][54]. - Industry performance is discussed, with a focus on sectors like TMT, AI, and industrial metals, but no quantitative models or factors are detailed[64][67]. - The report includes valuation metrics for indices like the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Shanghai Composite, but does not provide quantitative factor construction or testing[26][47][48]. - The report does not contain specific quantitative models or factors for analysis, nor does it provide formulas or detailed construction processes for any mentioned strategies or observations[1][2][4].