2024 年 09 月 08 日 研 究 究 英特尔发布酷睿 Ultra 200V 系列处理器,开源 模型 Reflection 70B 发布 报 告 —计算机行业周报 推荐(维持) 投资要点 分析师：宝幼琛 S1050521110002 baoyc@cfsc.com.cn ▌算力：算力租赁价格平稳，英特尔发布酷睿 Ultra 200V 系列处理器 表现 1M 3M 12M 计算机(申万) -3.1 -10.9 -35.7 沪深 300 -3.3 -9.6 -13.6 英特尔正式发布了酷睿 Ultra 200V 系列处理器，首批搭载这款处理器 的笔记本电脑在 9 月 24 日起发售，现在已经开启预售，包括宏碁、 华硕、戴尔、惠普、联想、LG、微星和三星在内的 80 款 PC 产品。 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1 、 《 计 算 机 行 业 周 报 ： AMDRDNA4GPU 架构显卡曝光，智谱发 布基座大模型 GLM-4-Plus》2024- 09-01 2、《计算机行业周报：Akeana 推出 新的 RISC-V 芯片设计 ，xAI 发布 Grok-2 大模型》2024-08-18 3、《 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 金融工程周报 6月以来外资持续净流出，待观察降息后动向 全球资金流向跟踪2024W37 报告日期：2024年09月08日 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------|-------|-------|-------| | | | | | | ◼ 分析师：吕思江 | | | | | ◼ SAC 编号： S1050522030001 | | | | | | | | | 投 资 要 点 资金流动概况： 截至9月4日，本周股票流入30亿美元，债券流入95亿美元，现金大幅流入607亿美元，黄金流入5亿美元，加密货 币流出6亿美元。 债券与黄金的资金流动： 截至9月4日，本周债券整体净流入95亿美元，今年以来持续净流入。主权债净流出19亿美元，投资级债券净流入 62亿美元，高收益债券净流入5亿美元。 黄金单周净流入5亿美元，连续4周净流入。 诚信、专业、稳健、高效 请阅读最后一页重要免责声明 PAGE 2 投 资 要 点 股票的地区、行业、风格流动： 截至9月4日，本周资金流入新兴市场金额最高，流入24亿美元，美国净流入16亿 ...

证 2024 年 09 月 08 日 告 行 研 究 R134a、天然气等涨幅居前，建议继续关注石化 板块和轮胎板块 —基础化工行业周报 推荐(维持) 投资要点 分析师：张伟保 S1050523110001 zhangwb@cfsc.com.cn 行业相对表现 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------|-------|-------|-------| | | | | | | | | | | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 基础化工 (申万) | -4.7 | -14.5 | -25.5 | | 沪深 300 | -3.3 | -9.6 | -13.6 | 市场表现 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 (%) 基础化工 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《基础化工行业周报：合成氨、 顺丁橡胶等涨幅居前，建议继续关 注石化板块和轮胎板块》2024-09- 02 2、《基础化工行业周报：乙烯、醋 酸等涨幅居前，建议继续关注石化 板块和轮胎板块》2024-08-25 3、《基础化工行业周报：硫酸、二 氯甲烷等 ...

证 2024 年 09 月 08 日 告 行 研 究 究 报 以旧换新政策推动 8 月汽车行业景气度复苏，特 斯拉 FSD 入华推进加速国内智能驾驶发展进程 —汽车行业周报 推荐(维持) 投资要点 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-------------------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|----------------|-------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | 分析师：林子健 | | | | | | | S1050523090001 | | | | linzj@cfsc.com.cn | | | | | | | | | | | 行业相对表现 | | | | | | | | | | | 表现 | | | | | | 1M | 3M | 12M | | | 汽车(申万 | | ) | | | | 0.5 | -5.4 | -8.5 | | | 沪深 | 300 | | | | | -3.3 | -9. ...

证 2024 年 09 月 08 日 报 告 行 业 研 究 —白酒行业 2024 年中报总结 推荐(维持) 投资要点 ▌ 业绩表现：高端酒稳健，次高端分化 高端保持稳健，次高端与地产酒分化。2024H1 收入增速高端酒＞ 次高端酒＞地产酒，分别为 15.19%/12.19%/9.94%。2024Q2 收入增 速高端酒＞次高端酒＞地产酒，分别为 14.24%/8.50%/4.56%。1） 高端酒具备强品牌力且建立深厚渠道基础，疲软消费环境下渠道与 目标消费群体抗压能力更强，仍能保持稳健增长。2）次高端酒品 牌力较弱且产品布局窄，前期规模扩张下渠道基础亦较薄弱，在主 要价位带面临消费频次下降时经销商稳定性较弱，业绩承压可能性 更大。3）地产酒内部分化明显，具备省内消费升级与自身市场份 额提升属性的酒企仍能保持较快增长，较全价位带布局与渠道深耕 为苏酒、皖酒提供较好韧性。 ▌ 盈利能力：产品结构下行，费投力度提升 2024H1 归母净利润增速为地产酒＞高端酒＞次高端酒，分别为 15.91%/14.43%/12.66%，地产酒利润增长明显，高端酒表现稳健， 次高端酒仍分化。2024Q2 归母净利润增速为地产酒＞高端 ...

证 2024 年 09 月 08 日 告 行 业 研 究 悲观预期释放，进入中秋密集备货期 究 报 推荐(维持) 投资要点 分析师：孙山山 S1050521110005 sunss@cfsc.com.cn 联系人：肖燕南 S1050123060024 xiaoyn@cfsc.com.cn 行业相对表现 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------|-------|-------|-------| | | | | | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 食品饮料(申万 ) | -6.9 | -17.0 | -29.5 | | 300 | -3.3 | -9.6 | -13.6 | 市场表现 -35 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 (%) 食品饮料 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《食品饮料行业周报：业绩利空 因素出清，关注中秋旺季回款》 2024-09-02 2、《食品饮料行业周报：中报密集 披露期，全年预期调整后重视边际 变化》2024-08-26 3、《食品饮料行业周报：中报披露 期，把握结构性机会》20 ...

券 研 告 研 究 2024 年 09 月 08 日 美国非农就业人数不及预期，降息预期支撑金价 —有色金属行业周报 推荐(维持) 投资要点 分析师：傅鸿浩 S1050521120004 fuhh@cfsc.com.cn 分析师：杜飞 S1050523070001 dufei2@cfsc.com.cn 行业相对表现 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------|-------|-------|-------| | | | | | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 有色金属 (申万) | -4.0 | -16.4 | -14.2 | | 沪深 300 | -3.3 | -9.6 | -13.6 | 市场表现 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 (%) 有色金属 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《有色金属行业周报：鲍威尔发 言偏鸽，降息或将落地利好金价》 2024-08-26 2、《有色金属行业周报：铜下游开 工持续回升，铜价维持偏强走势》 2024-08-19 3、《有色金属行业周报：铜杆-线 缆链条需求好转，铜价有支撑 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [1][2]. Core Views - The company's performance meets expectations, with a focus on channel expansion and product upgrades [1]. - Revenue for H1 2024 is reported at 2.898 billion yuan, an 8% year-on-year increase, while net profit attributable to shareholders is 337 million yuan, a 26% increase [1]. - The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth target of 15%-20% for the full year [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - H1 2024 revenue is 2.898 billion yuan, with a net profit of 337 million yuan, and a non-recurring net profit of 283 million yuan, reflecting a 42% increase [1]. - Q2 2024 revenue is 1.077 billion yuan, a 20% decrease quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 96 million yuan, an 8% increase year-on-year [1]. - The gross margin for Q2 2024 increased by 4 percentage points to 24.98%, primarily due to improved margins on sunflower seed products [1]. Product and Channel Development - The company saw a 6% increase in sales volume to 100,300 tons in H1 2024, with an average selling price of 28,900 yuan per ton, a 1% increase [1]. - Revenue from sunflower seeds, nuts, and other products reached 1.854 billion, 660 million, and 353 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth of 3%, 24%, and 10% [1]. - The company is actively expanding new channels, including group purchases and restaurant partnerships, with a digital platform managing over 370,000 terminal outlets, a nearly 50% year-on-year increase [1]. Regional Performance - Revenue from East China, South China, North China, e-commerce, and overseas markets reached 870 million, 863 million, 527 million, 361 million, and 246 million yuan respectively, with growth rates of +22%, -1%, +3%, +12%, and +5% [1]. - The East China region performed particularly well due to growth in nut group purchases and snack channels [1]. Earnings Forecast - The report adjusts the EPS forecasts for 2024-2026 to 1.94, 2.20, and 2.48 yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 13, 12, and 10 times [2].

Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [6] Core Views - The company is a global leader in the titanium dioxide industry, with significant integrated advantages and the ability to navigate industry cycles [2] - The company has the lowest production costs in the industry, creating a strong competitive moat [3] - The company has a high dividend payout policy, with an average dividend payout ratio of 72% over the past seven years [4] - The titanium dioxide industry is at the bottom of its cycle, with the company well-positioned to benefit from future growth due to its cost advantages and capacity expansion [5] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 3.8, 4.5, and 5.3 billion yuan in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with EPS of 1.59, 1.90, and 2.22 yuan [9] Company Overview - The company is the world's largest titanium dioxide producer, with an annual capacity of 1.51 million tons, and also the largest sponge titanium producer with an annual capacity of 80,000 tons [2] - The company has a fully integrated titanium industry chain, from titanium ore to titanium dioxide and titanium metal/derivatives, which provides significant cost advantages [2] - The company's titanium dioxide production cost in 2023 was 10,538 yuan/ton, significantly lower than its peers, ensuring profitability even during industry downturns [3] - The company plans to expand its titanium concentrate capacity to 2.5 million tons by 2025, further reducing production costs [3] Financial Performance - The company has maintained a high dividend payout ratio, with a total dividend payout of over 14.8 billion yuan in the past seven years [4] - In 2023, the company's dividend yield was 5.25%, well above the industry average [4] - The company's revenue grew from 2.06 billion yuan in 2014 to 26.79 billion yuan in 2023, with a CAGR of 33% [21] - Net profit grew from 63 million yuan in 2014 to 3.23 billion yuan in 2023, with a CAGR of 55% [21] - In H1 2024, the company achieved revenue of 13.8 billion yuan, up 4.09% YoY, and net profit of 1.72 billion yuan, up 36.4% YoY [21] Industry Overview - The global titanium dioxide industry is highly concentrated, with the top six producers accounting for 52% of global capacity [31] - China is the largest producer of titanium dioxide, with a capacity of 5 million tons in 2022, accounting for 53% of global capacity [34] - Overseas titanium dioxide capacity is declining due to environmental pressures and high labor costs, with several major producers closing plants in recent years [35] - Domestic titanium dioxide capacity in China is expected to increase by 700,000 tons in 2024 and 840,000 tons in 2025, but future growth is limited due to environmental regulations [37] Demand and Supply Dynamics - The titanium dioxide industry is at the bottom of its cycle, with most companies operating at a loss [5] - The company's cost advantages allow it to remain profitable even during industry downturns [5] - The company has 250,000 tons of unutilized titanium dioxide capacity, which will contribute to future growth [5] - Domestic demand for titanium dioxide is expected to improve, driven by recovery in downstream industries such as plastics, paper, and coatings [40] - Export demand is also expected to grow, particularly in emerging markets such as India, Brazil, and Turkey [45] Cost Advantages - The company has the lowest production costs in the industry, with a fully integrated supply chain from titanium ore to titanium dioxide [3] - The company's titanium concentrate capacity is expected to double by 2025, further reducing production costs [3] - The company's vertical integration and scale advantages allow it to maintain a significant cost advantage over its peers [3] Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 3.8, 4.5, and 5.3 billion yuan in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with EPS of 1.59, 1.90, and 2.22 yuan [9] - The company's PE ratios for 2024-2026 are 10.1x, 8.5x, and 7.3x, respectively, indicating significant upside potential [9] - The company's strong cost advantages and capacity expansion plans position it well for future growth [5][9] Risks - Economic downturn risks [10] - Significant fluctuations in product prices [10] - Delays in project construction [10] - Environmental policy restrictions [10] - Lower-than-expected progress in equity incentives [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [1][2]. Core Insights - The company has shown steady revenue growth, with a 13% year-on-year increase in H1 2024 revenue, reaching 1.273 billion yuan. However, profit margins are under pressure due to structural adjustments, leading to a 35% decrease in net profit [1][2]. - The B-end continues to contribute significantly to revenue growth, with the company expanding its customer base and product lines to enhance its competitive edge in the compound seasoning market [1][2]. - The company is expected to see profit margin recovery in the second half of the year as new product launches accelerate [1]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 2.369 billion yuan in 2023 to 3.131 billion yuan by 2026, with growth rates of 16.3%, 10.5%, 9.7%, and 9.0% respectively [4]. - The net profit is expected to decline from 301 million yuan in 2023 to 239 million yuan in 2024, before recovering to 337 million yuan by 2026 [4]. - The diluted earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 0.60 yuan in 2024, 0.73 yuan in 2025, and 0.84 yuan in 2026, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 19, 16, and 14 times [2][4]. Segment Performance - In Q2 2024, the company reported revenue of 649 million yuan, a 10% increase year-on-year, with a notable contribution from the B-end channel [1]. - The compound seasoning segment generated 301 million yuan in Q2 2024, reflecting a 10% increase, while the light cooking solutions segment saw a 12% increase in revenue [1]. - Direct sales channel revenue reached 521 million yuan in Q2 2024, up 11% year-on-year, indicating strong performance in the B-end market [1]. Financial Metrics - The company’s gross margin decreased by 2 percentage points to 30.6% in Q2 2024, primarily due to changes in channel and product structure [1]. - The net profit margin for Q2 2024 was reported at 8.66%, down 7 percentage points from the previous year [1]. - The company plans to continue expanding its C-end product price range and consumption scenarios to ensure stable profitability [1].