2025 年 05 月 07 日 改性塑料产销高增，产业链整合稳固龙头地位 —金发科技（600143.SH）公司事件点评报告 买入(首次) 事件 金发科技发布年度业绩报告：2024 年全年实现总营业收入 605.14 亿元，同比增长 26.23%；实现归母净利润 8.25 亿 元，同比增长 160.36%。Q4 单季度实现营收 200.50 亿元，同 比增长 46.88%，环比增长 17.13%；实现归母净利润 1.42 亿 元，同比增长 184.48%，环比下滑 53.31%。2025 年 Q1 单季 度实现营收 156.66 亿元，同比增长 49.06%；实现归母净利 润 2.47 亿元，同比增长 138.20%。 投资要点 公 司 研 究 分析师：张伟保 S1050523110001 ▌ 改性塑料龙头地位稳固，新材料多板块协同发展 金发科技是全球化工新材料行业产品种类最为齐全的企业之 一，同时是全球规模最大、产品种类最为齐全的改性塑料生 产企业。2024 年公司改性塑料销量再创新高，改性塑料产销 量 分别为 266.07/255.15 万吨，同比 分 别 增 长 23.71%/20.78%；改性塑料贡献 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [7] Core Views - The company's performance is under pressure, with expectations for a recovery in elasticity as the economy stabilizes [5][7] - The first quarter of 2025 saw total revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders at 1.576 billion and 346 million yuan, respectively, reflecting year-on-year declines of 25% and 37% [5] - The company is experiencing a shift in product structure leading to a decline in gross margin, while management expenses are being optimized [5] - E-commerce channels have shown strong performance, with sales growth of 37% year-on-year, while wholesale and agency sales declined by 32% [6] - The company is focusing on developing its domestic market, particularly in regions like Suining, which has resulted in a notable increase in revenue contribution from these areas [6] Summary by Sections Performance Overview - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and profit in Q1 2025, with gross margin at 69% and net margin at 22%, both down year-on-year [5] - Operating cash flow increased significantly, with a year-on-year growth of 107% [5] Sales Channels - E-commerce sales accounted for 14.21% of total revenue, up 7 percentage points year-on-year, while traditional sales channels faced declines [6] Regional Performance - Revenue from the domestic market was 4.94 billion yuan, down 9% year-on-year, while revenue from outside the province fell by 33% [6] Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to recover as business scenarios improve, with adjusted EPS forecasts for 2025-2027 at 2.10, 2.84, and 3.61 yuan, respectively [7] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 28, 20, and 16 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [7]

DeepSeek-Prover-V2 创数学推理新高，阿里通 义千问推出 Qwen3 模型 2025 年 05 月 07 日 推荐(维持) 投资要点 分析师：宝幼琛 S1050521110002 baoyc@cfsc.com.cn 行业相对表现 表现 1M 3M 12M 计算机(申万) 14.6 -4.4 27.8 沪深 300 6.1 -2.2 4.1 市场表现 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 (%) 计算机 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《计算机行业周报：豆包 1.5 模 型发布，微信 AI 助手"元宝"上 线》2025-04-23 2、《计算机行业周报：ChatGPT 升 级长期记忆功能，谷歌发布跨平台 AI 协作协议 A2A》2025-04-16 3、《计算机行业周报：Llama4 多版 本参数亮眼，DeepSeek 公布推理时 Scaling 新论文》2025-04-08 ▌算力： 算力租赁价格平稳，DeepSeek-Prover-V2 创数学推理新高 4 月 30 日，DeepSeek 发布名为 DeepSeek-Prover-V2 的数学 推理模型，提供 7B ...

2025 年 05 月 07 日 Q1 略超预期，期待渠道改革成效 买入(维持) 事件 | 分析师：孙山山 | S1050521110005 | | --- | --- | | sunss@cfsc.com.cn | | | 联系人：肖燕南 | S1050123060024 | | xiaoyn@cfsc.com.cn | | | 基本数据 | 2025-05-06 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价（元） | 129.49 | | 总市值（亿元） | 5026 | | 总股本（百万股） | 3882 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 3881 | | 52 周价格范围（元） | 107.69-164.05 | | 日均成交额（百万元） | 2933.66 | 市场表现 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 (%) 五粮液 沪深300 相关研究 1、《五粮液（000858）：营销执行 提升年，稳定压倒一切》2024-12- 19 2、《五粮液（000858）：浓香龙头 迎复兴，酒业大王向前看》2024- 12-06 3、《五粮液（000858）：发布中期 利 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [8]. Core Insights - Capacitor sales are experiencing growth against the trend, with a gradual recovery in downstream demand. Despite a decline in overall performance due to a prolonged industry downturn in 2024, key products such as pulse capacitors, tantalum capacitors, and supercapacitors have shown resilient sales growth. The company's profit primarily comes from the components segment, where specialized electronic components face high entry barriers and stable competition [4]. - The company has become one of the first to pass aerospace-grade MLCC certification, establishing strong partnerships in both military and civilian markets. The multilayer ceramic capacitors (MLCC) are widely used in various fields, including aerospace, medical electronics, and industrial control [5]. - The development of specialized high-performance new materials presents significant opportunities, particularly in aerospace applications. These materials, which have high-temperature resistance and low density, are crucial for manufacturing ceramic matrix composites (CMC) used in defense and energy sectors [6][7]. Financial Summary - The company reported a revenue of 762 million yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 16.96% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 17.19%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 107 million yuan, up 43.60% year-on-year and 439.25% quarter-on-quarter, indicating a clear recovery in industry conditions [3][4]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 3.928 billion, 4.893 billion, and 6.201 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.01, 1.31, and 1.72 yuan. The current stock price corresponds to PE ratios of 38, 29, and 22 times for the respective years [8][10].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking it as the first recommendation [11] Core Insights - The company has shown steady growth in scale and improvement in asset quality, with a slight decline in profitability growth rates [5][9] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a year-on-year revenue decrease of 5.4% and a net profit decline of 3.99%, attributed to slower growth in non-interest income and increased provisions [5][6] - The company’s total assets grew by 7.7% year-on-year, with deposits increasing by 3.6% and loans by 7.9% [6] - The non-performing loan ratio decreased to 1.33%, while the provision coverage ratio increased to 236.8%, indicating improved asset quality [9][10] Financial Performance Summary - For the first quarter of 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 1900.7 billion yuan and a net profit of 833.5 billion yuan [4] - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are projected to be 1.35, 1.40, and 1.44 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-book (PB) ratios of 0.66, 0.60, and 0.55 [11][13] - The company’s effective tax rate decreased to 10.5%, reflecting a favorable tax environment [8] Asset and Liability Management - The company’s interest margin decreased by 10 basis points to 1.41% in the first quarter of 2025, primarily due to a larger decline in asset yields compared to improvements in liability costs [7] - The loan balance increased by 1.18 trillion yuan in the first quarter, which is 6.8 billion yuan more than the same period last year [6] Future Projections - The company is expected to see a slight recovery in net profit growth rates, with projections of 3382 billion yuan in 2025, 3496 billion yuan in 2026, and 3591 billion yuan in 2027 [11][13] - The forecasted operating revenue for 2025 is 7354 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 2% from 2024 [13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [10] Core Views - The company has successfully expanded its direct customer base and is focusing on the progress of capacity release [1] - Revenue for 2024 is projected at 1.087 billion yuan, representing a 14% year-on-year increase, with a net profit of 111 million yuan, up 24% [1] - The company is expected to continue its positive operational trend due to the optimization of raw material costs and the implementation of capacity projects [10] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, total revenue reached 1.087 billion yuan, with a net profit of 111 million yuan and a non-recurring net profit of 94 million yuan [1] - For Q1 2025, revenue was 240 million yuan, a decrease of 6% year-on-year, with a net profit of 7 million yuan, down 80% [1] Cost Management - The gross margin for 2024 and Q1 2025 decreased by 0.04 percentage points and 9 percentage points to 35.03% and 28.63%, respectively [2] - The company is implementing strategies such as structural price locking and direct engagement with core suppliers to mitigate cost pressures [2] Product Development - Revenue from cream products in 2024 was 1.008 billion yuan, a 16% increase, with a gross margin of 35.48% [3] - The company is focusing on upgrading its product structure and optimizing cost-performance ratios for its products [3] Sales Channels - Revenue from distribution channels in 2024 was 877 million yuan, a 6% increase, while direct sales revenue grew by 65% to 210 million yuan [4] - The company is actively developing large customers and enhancing its customer coverage [9] Market Outlook - The overseas revenue for 2024 was 216 million yuan, reflecting a 17% increase, with expectations for continued double-digit growth in 2025 [9] - The company anticipates that the second phase of its investment projects will significantly alleviate capacity bottlenecks [3]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking the first coverage of the stock [8]. Core Insights - Capacitor sales are experiencing growth against the trend, with a gradual recovery in downstream demand. Despite a decline in overall performance due to a prolonged industry downturn in 2024, key products such as pulse capacitors, tantalum capacitors, and supercapacitors have shown resilient sales growth. The company's profit primarily comes from the components segment, where specialized electronic components have high entry barriers and a stable competitive landscape. The first quarter of 2025 saw a year-on-year revenue increase of 16.96% and a net profit increase of 43.60% [4][3]. - The company is among the first to pass aerospace-grade MLCC certification, with applications in military and civilian sectors. The multilayer ceramic capacitors (MLCC) are widely used in various fields, including aerospace, medical electronics, and industrial control. The company has established strong partnerships with special enterprises and is actively exploring new markets in power grids, rail transportation, industrial control, and renewable energy [5][6]. - The development of special high-performance new materials presents significant opportunities, particularly in aerospace applications. These materials, which have high-temperature resistance and low density, are crucial for manufacturing ceramic matrix composites (CMC). The aerospace sector is rapidly adopting these materials, leading to expanded commercial opportunities for the company [6][7]. Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 39.28 billion, 48.93 billion, and 62.01 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively. The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 1.01, 1.31, and 1.72 yuan for the same years. The current stock price corresponds to price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 38, 29, and 22 times for the respective years [8][10].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company [11] Core Insights - The company has shown steady growth in scale and improvement in asset quality, with total assets increasing by 7.7% year-on-year to 42.8 trillion yuan [6] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a decline in operating income by 5.4% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 3.99% [5] - The non-performing loan ratio decreased to 1.33%, and the provision coverage ratio increased to 236.8% [9][10] Financial Performance - For the first quarter of 2025, the company reported operating income of 190.07 billion yuan and net profit of 83.35 billion yuan [4] - The company’s total deposits grew by 3.6% to 30.4 trillion yuan, and total loans increased by 7.9% to 27 trillion yuan [6] - The estimated net interest margin for the first quarter of 2025 was 1.41%, reflecting a decrease of 10 basis points [7] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 338.2 billion, 349.6 billion, and 359.1 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.35, 1.40, and 1.44 yuan [11] - The projected P/B ratios for 2025-2027 are 0.66, 0.60, and 0.55 respectively [11] Asset Quality - The company’s core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio is reported at 13.98%, with a total capital adequacy ratio of 19.15% [10]

2025 年 05 月 07 日 业绩表现承压，期待弹性恢复 买入(维持) 事件 | 分析师：孙山山 | S1050521110005 | | --- | --- | | sunss@cfsc.com.cn | | | 联系人：肖燕南 | S1050123060024 | | xiaoyn@cfsc.com.cn | | | 基本数据 | 2025-05-06 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价（元） | 57.84 | | 总市值（亿元） | 193 | | 总股本（百万股） | 333 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 333 | | 52 周价格范围（元） | 40.18-82.9 | | 日均成交额（百万元） | 630.07 | 市场表现 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《舍得酒业（600702）：业绩短 期承压，期待企稳回升》2025-03- 24 2、《舍得酒业（600702）：调整期 业绩承压，发布回购方案彰显信 心》2024-10-29 3、《舍得酒业（600702）：利润不 及预期，短期去库释放压力》2024- 08-22 2025 年 4 月 25 日，舍得酒业发 ...