2025 年 03 月 30 日 业绩密集披露期，关注结构性机会 推荐(维持) 投资要点 | 分析师：孙山山 | S1050521110005 | | --- | --- | | sunss@cfsc.com.cn | | | 联系人：肖燕南 | S1050123060024 | | xiaoyn@cfsc.com.cn | | | 联系人：张倩 | S1050124070037 | | zhangqian@cfsc.com.cn | | 行业相对表现 ▌ 投资观点 | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 食品饮料(申万) | 3.1 | -0.2 | -7.2 | | 沪深 300 | 0.6 | -2.1 | 10.7 | 相关研究 1、《食品饮料行业周报：春糖会反 馈符合预期，政策端持续加码消 费》2025-03-24 2、《食品饮料行业周报：地方促生 育政策发布，有效提振消费信心》 2025-03-16 3、《食品饮料行业周报：两会强化 扩内需，消费环境持续改善》2025- 03-09 ▌ 一周新闻速递 行业新闻：1）2024 年白酒行业销 ...

2025 年 03 月 30 日 主力资金因子提示成长反弹， 一季报前重视财报 质量因子 告 —行业和风格因子跟踪报告 投资要点 ▌ 行业因子最新变动情况 行业因子上周最大特征是财报质量因子开始集体出现超 额，正如我们在《六维因子助力 ETF 轮动策略》一文中所 说，财报质量因子在季报前后脉冲式有效。财报质量细分 因子层面上总资产报酬率、净资产收益率、营业利润/营业 总收入等因子表现突出，说明当前市场持续缩量后，主要 交易方正在继续积极定价一季报。结合市场持续缩量和暂 时缺少新事件驱动，四月成长或有反弹但预计季报落地前 风格可能重回价值，基于财报质量因子行业上关注食品饮 料、医药、有色金属、电力，重视交运和大金融的机会。 整体看行业轮动因子描述市场仍然分歧巨大：主力资金因 子多头明确指向计算机、传媒、医药、通信、非银。长端 景气选择钢铁、通信、有色、化工；短期分析师预期指向 通信、轻工、家电、钢铁。科技板块普遍开始脱离复合因 子空头范围，但仍需观察流动性和后续催化，暂时以反弹 看待。 月频角度三月最强势的复合因子是短周期预期和部分财报 质量因子。选择的以顺周期偏防御偏质量的通信、家电、 化工、有色、电公为主。 ...

2025 年 03 月 30 日 交易现实，不忘梦想 分析师：吕思江 S1050522030001 lvsj@cfsc.com.cn ▌本周建议一览 核心观点：上周我们提示的"非美资产波段修正交易"进 入第二周。美元指数小幅回升；全球权益中印度、新加 坡、孟买股指上涨，恒生科技休整；A 股红利板块有相对 收益，小微盘如期调整回吐前期涨幅；股债表现偏向债 券。随着四月关税落地叠加财报季风险偏好下降，市场预 计继续回归基本面数据，AH 权益择时信号上周转为半仓 后，提示下周仍谨慎。但本轮科技突围带动的中国资产重 估和全球资金再平衡并未结束，"交易现实"同时"不忘 梦想"。 美股：美元真实流动性本周 6.139 万亿→6.137 万亿，边 际小幅震荡。其中美联扩表本周缩表 157.29 亿美元（上 周缩表 35.89 亿美元）；TGA 账户变动-998.29 亿美元 （上周-349.14 亿美元），余额大幅下降；隔夜逆回购 +857.25 亿美元（上周+746.16 亿美元）。美股上周参与反 弹止盈，关注四月关税落地和反制情况。从市场情绪看，我 们认为关税定价已经比较充分。四月初美股如有进一步调整 预计可再参与反弹 ...

2025 年 03 月 30 日 内需与出海托举大潮玩时代 港股先行 A 股洼地也 可期 推荐(维持) 投资要点 | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 传媒(申万) | 0.3 | 2.3 | 8.4 | | 沪深 300 | 0.6 | -1.7 | 11.2 | 相关研究 1、《传媒行业周报：从内容生产到 消费终端交互 AI 有望拉动全链条革 新》2025-03-22 2、《传媒行业周报：AI 应用增多推 高线上营销 关注 AI 赋能线下场 景》2025-03-15 3、《传媒行业周报：AIAgentManus 先行 AI 创新应用均有望撬动传媒洼 地》2025-03-09 —传媒行业周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 行 业 研 究 分析师：朱珠 S1050521110001 zhuzhu@cfsc.com.cn 分析师：于越 S1050522080001 yvyue@cfsc.com.cn 行业相对表现 ▌ 本周观点更新 A 股传媒板块标的逐步进入静默期，港股陆续发布年报且对 2025 年一季度的预期也相对乐观，在较好业绩带动下助推市 值攀升； ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company for the first time [1]. Core Views - The company is expected to improve its profitability despite the impact of goodwill impairment on profits [1]. - The revenue and operating profit for 2024 are projected to be CNY 886.75 billion and CNY 72.57 billion, respectively, reflecting a year-on-year change of -10.1% and +17.6% [5]. - The adjusted net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be CNY 44.35 billion, showing a year-on-year decrease of 7.8% [5]. - The company continues to optimize its product structure, leading to an effective increase in gross margin, with gross margin and operating profit margin for 2024 at 39.6% and 8.2%, respectively, up by 2.4 and 1.9 percentage points year-on-year [5]. Summary by Sections Product Performance - The company has seen stable development in ambient liquid milk, while low-temperature yogurt has performed well [6]. - Revenue from liquid milk and ice cream for 2024 is expected to be CNY 730.66 billion and CNY 51.75 billion, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -11.0% and -14.1% [6]. - The company is expanding its lactose-free product line and enhancing its brand presence in the baking and tea beverage sectors [6]. Business Segments - The milk powder business is recovering, with revenue expected to be CNY 33.20 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 12.7% [7]. - The cheese business has been successfully integrated, leading to significant improvements in profitability [7]. - The company is actively expanding its overseas business, maintaining a leading position in markets such as Indonesia and the Philippines [9]. Financial Forecast - The company anticipates revenue growth from 2025 to 2027, with projected revenues of CNY 900.16 billion, CNY 921.34 billion, and CNY 943.07 billion, respectively [10]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to increase from CNY 1.32 in 2025 to CNY 1.63 in 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 14, 13, and 11 times [10]. - The report highlights that there is room for product structure optimization across different categories, and a decrease in management expense ratio is expected to offset some of the increase in sales expense ratio [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company has a solid industry position and is building long-term barriers through high copper paste materials [1] - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 15.351 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 59.85%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 360 million yuan, a decline of 6.66% [4][5] - The company is a leader in the production of N-type conductive silver paste, with 89.10% of its total silver paste sales used in N-type TOPCon batteries [6] - The company is actively developing low-silver metallization technologies and has made significant progress in pure copper paste [6] Financial Performance - The company forecasts revenues of 18.678 billion yuan, 21.480 billion yuan, and 24.702 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 3.61 yuan, 4.41 yuan, and 5.39 yuan [7] - The projected PE ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 13.2, 10.8, and 8.8 times respectively [7] - The company’s gross margin for 2024 is 9.38%, a decrease of 1.76 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin is 2.34%, down 1.68 percentage points [5]

2025 年 03 月 28 日 国内外需求共振，在手订单充足 买入(维持) 事件 | 分析师：张涵 | S1050521110008 | | --- | --- | | zhanghan3@cfsc.com.cn | | | 联系人：罗笛箫 | S1050122110005 | | luodx@cfsc.com.cn | | | 基本数据 | 2025-03-28 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价（元） | 50.05 | | 总市值（亿元） | 344 | | 总股本（百万股） | 688 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 688 | | 52 周价格范围（元） | 38.8-58.94 | | 日均成交额（百万元） | 441.2 | 市场表现 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 (%) 东方电缆 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《东方电缆（603606）：新签海 外海缆大单，欧洲市场开拓顺利》 2024-07-13 —东方电缆（603606.SH）公司事件点评报告 东方电缆发布 2024 年年度报告，2024 年公司实现营业收入 90.93 亿元，同比增长 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" investment rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company experienced a revenue of 886.75 billion and an operating profit of 72.57 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year change of -10.1% in revenue and +17.6% in operating profit [5] - The adjusted net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024 was 44.35 billion, showing a year-on-year decrease of 7.8% [5] - The company has optimized its product structure, leading to an increase in gross margin to 39.6%, up by 2.4 percentage points year-on-year [5] - The company plans to enhance its profitability and expects revenue growth from 900.16 billion in 2025 to 943.07 billion in 2027, with corresponding EPS increasing from 1.32 to 1.63 [10] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The company reported a revenue of 886.75 billion and an operating profit of 72.57 billion for 2024, with a revenue decline of 10.1% and an operating profit increase of 17.6% year-on-year [5] - The adjusted net profit attributable to the parent company was 44.35 billion, down 7.8% year-on-year [5] - The gross margin improved to 39.6%, an increase of 2.4 percentage points, while the operating profit margin reached 8.2%, up by 1.9 percentage points [5] Product Performance - The company’s liquid milk and ice cream revenue for 2024 was 730.66 billion and 51.75 billion, respectively, with year-on-year declines of 11.0% and 14.1% [6] - The company is focusing on expanding its lactose-free product line and enhancing its high-end fresh milk market share [6] - The milk powder business showed strong growth, particularly in the fourth quarter of 2024 and the first quarter of 2025, driven by the success of its infant formula brand [7] Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve revenue growth from 900.16 billion in 2025 to 943.07 billion in 2027, with EPS projected to rise from 1.32 to 1.63 [10] - The report anticipates a gradual improvement in profitability, with a focus on optimizing product structures and managing costs effectively [10]

2025 年 03 月 30 日 内需与出海托举大潮玩时代 港股先行 A 股洼地也 可期 推荐(维持) 投资要点 | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 传媒(申万) | 0.3 | 2.3 | 8.4 | | 沪深 300 | 0.6 | -1.7 | 11.2 | 相关研究 1、《传媒行业周报：从内容生产到 消费终端交互 AI 有望拉动全链条革 新》2025-03-22 2、《传媒行业周报：AI 应用增多推 高线上营销 关注 AI 赋能线下场 景》2025-03-15 3、《传媒行业周报：AIAgentManus 先行 AI 创新应用均有望撬动传媒洼 地》2025-03-09 ▌ 本周观点更新 A 股传媒板块标的逐步进入静默期，港股陆续发布年报且对 2025 年一季度的预期也相对乐观，在较好业绩带动下助推市 值攀升；由内需到出海托举出中国特色资产，从大潮玩时代 的双强代表泡泡玛特、布鲁可到 AI 垂类应用的美图以及弹幕 视频社区 B 站，均在国内外市场表现优异。港股先行表现 后，A 股回调，洼地中也可寻遗珠。 ▌ 本周重点推荐个股及逻辑 给予传 ...

2025 年 03 月 28 日 券 研 究 报 告 矿产铜金产销稳步增长带动业绩大幅提升，远期 产能仍然可期 买入(维持) 事件 分析师：傅鸿浩 S1050521120004 fuhh@cfsc.com.cn 分析师：杜飞 S1050523070001 dufei2@cfsc.com.cn | 基本数据 | 2025-03-27 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价（元） | 17.86 | | 总市值（亿元） | 4747 | | 总股本（百万股） | 26578 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 20588 | | 52 周价格范围（元） | 14.15-19.47 | | 日均成交额（百万元） | 3022.58 | 市场表现 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 (%) 紫金矿业 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《紫金矿业（601899）：矿产铜 金量价同比均有提升，三季报业绩 大幅增长》2024-10-24 2、《紫金矿业（601899）：矿产铜 金稳步增长，成本呈现下降趋势》 2024-08-29 3、《紫金矿业（601899）：加速矿 山产能释 ...