证 券 研 究 报 告 金融工程月报 看好小盘风格回归 ——5月大小盘轮动观点 报告日期：2025年5月8日 n 分析师：吕思江 n SAC编号：S1050522030001 n 联系人：武文静 n SAC编号：S1050123070007 | 业绩统计 | 中证2000 | 沪深300 | 基准:等权配置 | 轮动策略 | 轮动策略/基准 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 累计收益 | -14.95% | 8.39% | 0.04% | 115.48% | 108.71% | | 年化收益 | -1.77% | 0.89% | 0.00% | 8.85% | 8.46% | | 最大回撤 | 56.49% | 45.60% | 37.97% | 32.46% | 14.94% | | 年化波动率 | 26.45% | 19.12% | 21.05% | 21.19% | 8.66% | | 年化sharpe | -0.07 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.42 | 0.98 | | calmar | -0.03 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.27 ...

2025 年 05 月 08 日 双融日报 --鑫融讯 分析师：万蓉 S1050511020001 wanrong@cfsc.com.cn 市场情绪：79 分（较热） 最近一年大盘走势 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 (%) 沪深300 相关研究 | 1、《双融日报》2025-05-07 | | --- | | 2、《双融日报》2025-05-06 | | 3、《双融日报》2025-04-30 | ▌ 华鑫市场情绪温度指标：（较热） 华鑫市场情绪温度指标显示，昨日市场情绪综合评分为 79 分，市场情绪处于"较热"。历史市场情绪趋势变化可参 考图表 1。 ▌ 热点主题追踪 今日热点主题：机器人、稀土、苹果链 1、机器人主题：五一假期期间，山岳型景区迎来大批游 客。在八达岭长城、黄山、泰山这些热门景点，游客们体验 到了一种别样的登山方式一穿戴外骨骼机器人登山。这种设 备被形容为"登山外挂"，通过机械结构或电机驱动，能够 降低 20%-40%的体能消耗，瞬间在户外圈爆火。相关标的： 伟思医疗(688580)、精工科技(002006) 2、稀土主题：近日，据相 ...

2025 年 05 月 08 日 业绩符合预期，整体稳健增长 买入(维持) 事件 | 分析师：孙山山 | S1050521110005 | | --- | --- | | sunss@cfsc.com.cn | | | 联系人：肖燕南 | S1050123060024 | | xiaoyn@cfsc.com.cn | | | 基本数据 | 2025-05-07 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价（元） | 47.49 | | 总市值（亿元） | 592 | | 总股本（百万股） | 1247 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 1247 | | 52 周价格范围（元） | 35.59-57.6 | | 日均成交额（百万元） | 338.96 | 市场表现 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 (%) 今世缘 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 3、《今世缘（603369）：主动降速 控节奏，稳步增长向前看》2024- 10-31 —今世缘（603369.SH）公司事件点评报告 2025 年 4 月 29 日，今世缘发布 2024 年年报及 2025 年一季 报。 投资要点 ▌ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [7] Core Views - The company's performance is in line with expectations, showing steady growth. Total revenue and net profit for 2024 are projected to be CNY 115.46 billion and CNY 34.12 billion, respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 14% and 9% [5] - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with earnings per share (EPS) forecasted at CNY 2.95, CNY 3.24, and CNY 3.60 for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, total revenue and net profit reached CNY 50.99 billion and CNY 16.44 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth of 9% and 7% [5] - The gross margin and net margin for 2024 were 75% and 30%, with slight declines in 2025 Q1 to 74% and 32% [5] - Operating cash flow showed strong performance, with a year-on-year increase of 42% in Q1 2025 [5] Product and Channel Performance - Revenue from key product categories in 2024 showed growth, with the premium A+ category growing by 15.17% and the A category by 16.61% [6] - Direct sales and wholesale revenue for 2024 were CNY 2.73 billion and CNY 112.05 billion, respectively, with increases of 20.78% and 14.19% [6] Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to maintain a strong growth trajectory post reaching CNY 100 billion in revenue, with projected EPS for 2025-2027 being CNY 2.95, CNY 3.24, and CNY 3.60, corresponding to price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 16, 15, and 13 times [7][10]

2025 年 05 月 07 日 错期下业绩边际承压，终端动销环比改善 —天味食品（603317.SH）公司事件点评报告 买入(维持) 事件 2025 年 4 月 28 日，天味食品发布 2025 年一季报，2025Q1 总 营收 6.42 亿元（同减 25%），归母净利润 0.75 亿元（同减 58%），扣非净利润 0.51 亿元（同减 65%）。 投资要点 ▌费用投放增加，盈利边际承压 2025Q1 毛利率同减 3pct 至 40.74%，主要系渠道结构变动所 致，公司通过低位锁价、供应商竞价等方式推动降本动作， 实现毛利率优化，销售/管理费用率分别同增 5pct/2pct 至 22.26%/7.06%，净利率同减 9pct 至 12.34%，利润下滑主要 系市场动销较弱、费用投放增加叠加一季度基数较低所致。 ▌库存消化完毕，动销环比改善 2025Q1 火锅调料/菜谱式调料/香肠腊肉调料营收分别为 1.73 /4.34/0.15 亿元，分别同减 41%/12%/56%，整体营收下降主 要系 2024 年底经销商错期备货导致 2025Q1 进货意愿较低， 同时市场竞争加剧，动销较为疲软，目前库存基本消化完 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [1] Core Viewpoints - The company is leveraging AI to enhance its IP content, creating new growth momentum in the market [1][5] - The company has established a balanced revenue structure across its three main categories: toys, infant products, and film, with respective revenues of 1.026 billion, 1.212 billion, and 396 million yuan in 2024 [3] - The company aims to build a competitive advantage through high-quality content creation and a robust IP matrix, which includes popular titles like "Pleasant Goat and Big Big Wolf" and "Armor Warriors" [3][4] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company forecasts revenues of 2.746 billion, 2.870 billion, and 3.074 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of 153 million, 235 million, and 311 million yuan [7][9] - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.10, 0.16, and 0.21 yuan for the same years, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 85.8, 55.8, and 42.2 [7][9] Market Strategy - The company is actively expanding its presence in international markets beyond the US, targeting regions such as Australia and South America [3] - The introduction of AI-powered plush toys and partnerships with telecom operators for smart toy offerings highlight the company's innovative approach to product development [5]

2025 年 05 月 07 日 错期下业绩边际承压，终端动销环比改善 —天味食品（603317.SH）公司事件点评报告 买入(维持) 事件 2025 年 4 月 28 日，天味食品发布 2025 年一季报，2025Q1 总 营收 6.42 亿元（同减 25%），归母净利润 0.75 亿元（同减 58%），扣非净利润 0.51 亿元（同减 65%）。 投资要点 ▌费用投放增加，盈利边际承压 2025Q1 毛利率同减 3pct 至 40.74%，主要系渠道结构变动所 致，公司通过低位锁价、供应商竞价等方式推动降本动作， 实现毛利率优化，销售/管理费用率分别同增 5pct/2pct 至 22.26%/7.06%，净利率同减 9pct 至 12.34%，利润下滑主要 系市场动销较弱、费用投放增加叠加一季度基数较低所致。 ▌库存消化完毕，动销环比改善 2025Q1 火锅调料/菜谱式调料/香肠腊肉调料营收分别为 1.73 /4.34/0.15 亿元，分别同减 41%/12%/56%，整体营收下降主 要系 2024 年底经销商错期备货导致 2025Q1 进货意愿较低， 同时市场竞争加剧，动销较为疲软，目前库存基本消化完 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [1] Core Viewpoints - The company is leveraging AI to enhance its IP content, creating new growth momentum in the market [1][5] - The company has established a balanced revenue structure across its three main categories: toys, infant products, and film, with respective revenues of 1.026 billion, 1.212 billion, and 396 million yuan in 2024, accounting for 37.77%, 44.64%, and 14.58% of total revenue [3][4] - The company is focusing on creating high-quality content to build a robust IP matrix, which includes popular titles such as "Pleasant Goat and Big Big Wolf" and "Armor Warriors" [3][4] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The company's stock price is currently at 8.87 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 13.1 billion yuan [1] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company forecasts revenues of 2.746 billion, 2.870 billion, and 3.074 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of 153 million, 235 million, and 311 million yuan [7][9] - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.10, 0.16, and 0.21 yuan for the same years, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 85.8, 55.8, and 42.2 [7][9] Product Development - The company is actively developing new products under its "Play Point Unlimited" brand strategy, including collaborations with other companies to create popular IP-based toys [4][5] - The "Didi Le" series has gained popularity, appealing to Generation Z and millennials due to its collectible and playful nature [4] AI Integration - The company has introduced AI-powered plush toys and is enhancing its supply chain capabilities to support flexible product offerings [5]

▌ 研发投入高度保障，现金流显著持续健康 期间费用方面，2024 年公司研发费用达 24.90 亿元，同比增 长 26.20%，这一增长主要归因于职工薪酬以及材料费的明显 增加。公司通过加大研发投入力度，积极支持新技术和新产 品的研发活动，致力于优化现有产品结构，从而有效提升产 品的附加值和市场竞争力。现金流方面，经营活动产生的现 金流量净额为 28.45 亿元，同比增长 18.24%。 投资要点 ▌ 改性塑料龙头地位稳固，新材料多板块协同发展 金发科技是全球化工新材料行业产品种类最为齐全的企业之 一，同时是全球规模最大、产品种类最为齐全的改性塑料生 产企业。2024 年公司改性塑料销量再创新高，改性塑料产销 量 分别为 266.07/255.15 万吨，同比 分 别 增 长 23.71%/20.78%；改性塑料贡献营业收入 320.75 亿元，同比 增长 18.95%，毛利率为 22.07%。年内公司积极开拓人形机器 人、四足机器人和低空经济等新兴领域，深化与汽车、家 电、消费电子等全球头部企业合作，使得车用材料、新能 源、消费电子材料等材料销量快速增长。绿色石化板块， 2024 年业绩有所改善但未能实现盈 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [10] Core Views - The company has successfully expanded its direct customer base and is focusing on the progress of capacity release [1] - Revenue for 2024 is projected at 1.087 billion yuan, representing a 14% year-on-year increase, with a net profit of 111 million yuan, up 24% [1] - The company is expected to continue its positive operational trend due to the optimization of raw material costs and the implementation of capacity projects [10] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, total revenue reached 1.087 billion yuan, with a net profit of 111 million yuan and a non-recurring net profit of 94 million yuan [1] - For Q4 2024, total revenue was 321 million yuan, a 30% increase year-on-year, while net profit slightly decreased by 1% [1] - Q1 2025 revenue was 240 million yuan, a 6% decrease year-on-year, with net profit dropping by 80% [1] Cost Management - The gross margin for 2024 and Q1 2025 decreased by 0.04 percentage points and 9 percentage points to 35.03% and 28.63%, respectively [2] - The company is implementing strategies such as structural price locking and direct supplier engagement to mitigate cost pressures [2] Product Development - Revenue from cream products in 2024 was 1.008 billion yuan, a 16% increase, with a gross margin of 35.48% [3] - The company is focusing on product structure upgrades and is expected to alleviate capacity bottlenecks with the second phase of investment projects set for completion in June [3] Sales Channels - Revenue from distribution channels in 2024 was 877 million yuan, a 6% increase, while direct sales revenue surged by 65% to 210 million yuan [4] - The company is actively helping distributors develop regional products to adapt to market trends [4] Market Expansion - The company achieved overseas revenue of 216 million yuan in 2024, a 17% increase, with expectations for continued double-digit growth in 2025 [9] Earnings Forecast - EPS for 2025-2027 is projected to be 1.31, 1.58, and 1.92 yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 26, 21, and 18 times [10]