Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the automotive sector [1] Core Views - The automotive sector is expected to enter a phase of high sales prosperity, driven by new vehicle launches, technological advancements, and industry trends such as advanced driving assistance systems and robotics [6][18] - The continuation of the vehicle trade-in policy in 2025 is anticipated to support upward consumer spending in the automotive market [5][18] Summary by Sections Recent Developments - New models launched include the Leapmotor B10, BYD Han L, and Geely Xingyao 8, with significant features and competitive pricing [5][14][15][16] - Tesla plans to build its first factory in Africa, located in Morocco, with an investment of $5 billion and a projected annual production capacity of 400,000 vehicles [5][17] Market Performance - The automotive sector underperformed compared to the Shanghai Composite Index from April 7 to April 11, with a weekly decline of 5.5% [19] - The performance of major automotive stocks during the same period showed declines, with companies like Li Auto and NIO experiencing significant drops [19] Investment Opportunities - The report identifies several investment opportunities within the automotive sector: 1. Companies positioned for high-end market growth, such as Li Auto, Geely, BYD, and Great Wall Motors [6][18] 2. Beneficiaries of the "affordable" advanced driving technology trend, including XPeng Motors and Huayang Group [6][18] 3. Companies in the robotics sector poised for breakthroughs, such as Top Group and Sanhua Intelligent Control [6][18] 4. Quality auto parts manufacturers expected to benefit from a complex export environment, including Fuyao Glass and Xingyu Automotive Lighting [6][18] 5. Commercial vehicle leaders like China National Heavy Duty Truck and Yutong Bus, which are expected to recover in 2025 [6][18] Industry Indicators - In March 2025, the automotive production and sales figures showed a year-on-year increase of 11.9% and 8.2%, respectively, indicating a positive trend in the market [36]

2025 年 04 月 15 日 行业研究 [Table_Title] 美国关税加码，全球资产"震颤" 证券分析师： 谢文迪 S0350522110004 xiewd@ghzq.com.cn 联系人 ： 林晓莹 S0350123070003 linxy02@ghzq.com.cn ——钢铁与大宗商品行业周报 最近一年走势 投资要点 | 行业相对表现 | | | 2025/04/14 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 钢铁 | | -8.0% | 4.5% | -0.5% | | 沪深 | 300 | -6.2% | -1.6% | 8.2% | 相关报告 《钢铁与大宗商品行业周报：关税风险支撑溢价， 铜金最为受益（无评级）*钢铁*谢文迪》—— 2025-03-24 《钢铁与大宗商品行业周报：会议落地黑色情绪回 落，关税高悬有色价格走高（无评级）*钢铁*谢文 迪》——2025-03-10 《钢铁与大宗商品行业周报：美国关税政策再调 整，避险情绪为主流（无评级）*钢铁*谢文迪》— —2025-02-17 《钢铁与大宗商品行 ...

Group 1: Company Insights - Dongfang Caifu's securities business market share continues to rise, benefiting from the capital market recovery in Q4 2024, with brokerage market share at 4.11% and margin financing market share at 3.16% [4][5] - In 2024, Dongfang Caifu achieved revenue of 11.604 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.72%, and net profit of 9.610 billion yuan, up 17.29% [3][4] - Ningbo Bank reported an 8.19% increase in revenue and a 6.23% increase in net profit for 2024, with total assets exceeding 3.1 trillion yuan [9][11] - Ningbo Bank's non-performing loan ratio remained stable, with a provision coverage ratio of 389.35% [10][11] - The company expects to maintain a high dividend payout ratio of 22.77% in 2024 [11] Group 2: Industry Trends - The aluminum industry is experiencing a reduction in tariff pressures, with domestic aluminum production capacity expected to rise to 43.92 million tons per year by the end of April 2025 [14][18] - Despite tariff impacts, demand for aluminum is showing slight growth, with inventory levels decreasing [15][18] - The coal market is stabilizing, with port inventories declining and prices holding steady due to supply constraints and steady demand from non-electric sectors [19][21] - The introduction of high-purity quartz as a new mineral resource in China is expected to support the semiconductor and photovoltaic industries, with significant breakthroughs in domestic production capabilities [24][25] - The chemical industry is anticipated to enter a replenishment cycle in 2025, driven by low inventory levels and improving profitability among leading companies [40][41]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD Group-SW (9618.HK) [1][9] Core Views - The company's performance is in line with expectations, and the impact of new business investments is expected to be manageable [2] - JD Group's revenue for Q1 2025 is projected to reach 290.8 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.8% [5] - The report highlights the strong recovery in consumer spending and the benefits from national subsidies, particularly in the electronics and daily necessities categories [5][8] Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Projections**: - 2025E: 1,266.2 billion yuan - 2026E: 1,334.0 billion yuan - 2027E: 1,400.6 billion yuan [7][9] - **Net Profit Projections**: - 2025E: 45.56 billion yuan - 2026E: 51.38 billion yuan - 2027E: 56.05 billion yuan [7][9] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2025E: 14.63 yuan - 2026E: 16.40 yuan - 2027E: 17.78 yuan [7][9] - **Return on Equity (ROE)**: - 2025E: 18% - 2026E: 19% - 2027E: 20% [7][9] Business Segment Insights - **JD Retail**: - Expected revenue growth of 12.3% to 254.7 billion yuan in Q1 2025, driven by national subsidies and improved operational efficiency [5][8] - **JD Logistics**: - Anticipated revenue growth of 11% to 46.9 billion yuan in Q1 2025, benefiting from the overall growth in the express delivery market [5][8] - **JD Delivery**: - Daily order volume is projected to exceed 5 million following the launch of a significant subsidy program [8]

2025 年 04 月 14 日 债券研究周报 研究所： | 证券分析师： | 靳毅 S0350517100001 | | --- | --- | | | jiny01@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | 刘畅 S0350524090005 | | | liuc06@ghzq.com.cn | [Table_Title] 机构行为每周跟踪 债券研究周报 最近一年走势 机构资金跟踪 本周（4 月 7 日-4 月 11 日）流动性略有放松。R007 收于 1.70%， 较上周减少 4BP，DR007 收于 1.65%，较上周减少 4BP。6 个月国 股转贴利率收于 1.20%，较上周增加 8BP。 机构行为量化指标 久期方面，本周绩优利率债基金久期较上周减少 0.10；"资产荒" 指数有所上行；杠杆方面，全市场杠杆率较上周增加 0.2 个百分点， 收于 106.9%；理财市场方面，本周全市场产品破净率较上周有所上 行，为 2.6%。 风险提示 相关结论主要基于过往数据计算所得，不能完全预测 未来；报告采用的样本数据有限，存在样本不足以代表整体市场的 风险，且数据处理统计方式可能存在误差；中国央行货币 ...

2025 年 04 月 14 日 固定收益点评 [Table_Title] 债市如何交易关税冲击？ 固定收益点评 最近一年走势 相关报告 《固定收益点评：同业存单的新机会*靳毅》—— 2025-03-23 《固定收益点评：降息预期修正到位了吗？*靳毅》 《固定收益点评：地产市场近况更新*靳毅》—— 2025-03-11 投资要点: 国海证券研究所 请务必阅读正文后免责条款部分 研究所： 证券分析师： 靳毅 S0350517100001 jiny01@ghzq.com.cn 联系人 ： 马闻倬 S0350124070011 mawz@ghzq.com.cn 《固定收益点评：政府债供给放量，会扰动债市 吗？*靳毅》——2025-04-06 《固定收益点评：4 月资金面怎么看？*靳毅》—— 2025-03-30 ——2025-03-17 4 月 2 日，对等关税出台大超市场预期，我国债市利率受此影响快速下行，目前 点位已接近前低位置，后续债市将如何交易关税冲击？我们复盘了上一轮 2018 年的贸易摩擦中债市的表现，为本轮贸易战下的债市交易提供借鉴。 资料来源：新华网、Wind、国海证券研究所 1、2018 年贸易摩 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][11]. Core Views - The company has sufficient orders on hand to ensure future performance, and its overseas strategy is gradually being realized [3][5]. - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 13.355 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.63 billion yuan, an increase of 7% [4][10]. - The company secured new orders worth 18.2 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 30.6%, with a backlog of 10.155 billion yuan at the end of 2024, up 34.5% year-on-year [5][10]. Summary by Sections Recent Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported revenue of 5.31 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, and net profit of 1.03 billion yuan, up 15.5% year-on-year [4]. - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 33.7%, an increase of 0.65 percentage points year-on-year, and the net profit margin was 20.1%, up 2.2 percentage points year-on-year [4]. Revenue and Profitability - The company’s revenue from high-end equipment manufacturing reached 9.18 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 12.7%, with a gross margin of 39.4%, up 1.9 percentage points [5][10]. - The company maintained a strong competitive position in domestic and international markets for drilling and completion equipment, securing multiple contracts with major oil companies [5][10]. Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 15.176 billion yuan, 17.478 billion yuan, and 20.494 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 2.958 billion yuan, 3.483 billion yuan, and 4.031 billion yuan [9][10]. - The company is expected to maintain a healthy return on equity (ROE) of 12% to 14% over the next few years, with a decreasing price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio from 14.28 in 2024 to 7.88 in 2027 [9][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [1] Core Views - The report highlights the weak fluctuation of pig prices, with expectations of a downward trend in the short term and a long-term weak operation in 2025 due to increased supply and weak demand [4][14] - The poultry sector may see price improvements due to the impact of tariffs and a shortage of quality breeding stock caused by avian influenza [5][28] - The animal health sector is expected to benefit from improved downstream demand and external expansion opportunities, with rising prices for key products like Tylosin [6][41] - The planting sector is experiencing price fluctuations for major grains, with a focus on the commercialization of genetically modified seeds [8][46] - The feed sector is seeing a decline in prices, with recommendations for companies like Haida Group [8][49] - The pet market continues to grow rapidly, with strong performance from domestic brands and recommendations for companies in the pet food and medical sectors [8][54][57] Summary by Sections Pig Industry - Pig prices are expected to adjust slightly, with a forecast of weak performance in 2025 due to increased supply [4][14] - As of April 10, 2025, the average price of live pigs is 14.6 CNY/kg, with no change from the previous week [14] Poultry Industry - The poultry sector may see price increases due to tariff impacts and a lack of quality breeding stock [5][28] - The average price of broiler chickens is 3.75 CNY/lb, reflecting a weekly increase [28] Animal Health - The animal health sector is experiencing improved profitability, with Tylosin prices rising significantly [6][41] - The report suggests focusing on companies with expected external expansion, such as Reap Bio [6] Planting Sector - Major grain prices are fluctuating, with corn priced at 2199 CNY/ton and wheat at 2422 CNY/ton [8][46] - The report recommends companies involved in genetically modified seed development [8] Feed Sector - Feed prices are declining, with pig feed at 3.35 CNY/kg [8][49] - The report suggests focusing on companies like Haida Group due to expected industry consolidation [8] Pet Industry - The pet market is projected to reach 300.2 billion CNY in 2024, with a growth rate of 7.5% [8][54] - Recommendations include companies like Guobao Pet and Zhongchong Co., which are experiencing significant growth [8][57]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the food and beverage industry [1][12]. Core Insights - The report highlights the resilience of the food and beverage sector amid changing tariffs and strengthening domestic demand, particularly benefiting the liquor segment [5][11]. - Recent performance shows that the food and beverage sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a 0.26% increase compared to a 3.37% decline in the index over the two weeks from March 31 to April 11, 2025 [3][18]. - The liquor segment is expected to benefit from increased domestic demand due to the escalation of the US-China tariff conflict, with a focus on companies like Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye [5][7]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - Over the two weeks from March 31 to April 11, 2025, the food and beverage sector rose by 0.26%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.64 percentage points [3][18]. - The snack segment saw the highest increase at 10.70%, followed by soft drinks at 6.03% and dairy products at 4.68% [3][18]. - Notable stock performances included Beiyinmei (+41.72%), Xibu Muye (+41.11%), and Yanjinpuzi (+24.24%) leading the gains, while Huangshi Group (-17.37%) and others faced declines [3][18]. Liquor Segment - The liquor sector experienced a slight decline of 1.14% over the same two-week period, but rebounded by 4.10% from April 8 to April 11 [5][6]. - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic demand for liquor companies, especially in light of recent tariff conflicts [5][11]. - Key recommendations include Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and other leading liquor brands [7][12]. Consumer Goods - The report notes that the consumer goods sector is benefiting from policies aimed at stimulating domestic demand and increasing birth rates, particularly in the dairy segment [8][10]. - Companies like China Feihe and Yili have announced substantial subsidies to support families, which is expected to boost sales in the dairy sector [8][10]. - The report highlights the strong performance of snack companies, particularly those focusing on low-calorie konjac products, with Salted Fish and Wei Long leading the market [9][10]. Valuation and Recommendations - As of April 11, 2025, the dynamic price-to-earnings ratio for the food and beverage sector stands at 21.45x, indicating a mid-range position among primary industries [26][30]. - The report recommends several stocks across different segments, including Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and various consumer goods companies like Yili and Salted Fish [12][29].

2025 年 04 月 14 日 北交所行业研究 研究所： 证券分析师： 罗琨 S0350522110003 luok@ghzq.com.cn 联系人 ： 禹露 S0350124070012 yul06@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 本周整体市场波动较大，鼎佳精密、岷山环能两 家企业上会通过 ——北交所行业周报 | 行业相对表现 | | | 2025/04/11 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 北证 | 50 | -9.41% | 25.37% | 53.70% | | 沪深 | 300 | -4.54% | 0.48% | 7.01% | 相关报告 《北交所行业周报：北交所出台自律管理规则，本 周天工股份完成注册、下周两家企业上会（推荐） *中小盘*罗琨》——2025-04-07 《北交所行业周报：近期北证 50 指数有所回调， 本周开发科技上市（推荐）*中小盘*罗琨》—— 2025-03-31 《商业航天行业报告：商业航天方兴未艾，低轨卫 星星座建设加速（推荐）*中小盘*罗琨》—— 2025 ...