Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for November rose to 50.3, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from October, indicating a recovery in the economy[5] - Domestic orders within the PMI reached a three-year high, suggesting strong internal demand driving the economic improvement[5] - Real estate sales have rebounded, with sales area in November returning to levels seen in 2021, surpassing those of 2022 and 2023[6] Market Dynamics - Despite the recovery in the manufacturing sector, the bond and A-share markets remain dominated by abundant liquidity, with small-cap stocks performing better than large-cap and cyclical stocks[14] - The average daily financing amount in the A-share market remains high, although it has decreased slightly from previous weeks[14] - The bond market has not fully reflected the economic recovery, as long-term bond yields continue to decline despite slightly better-than-expected economic data[12] Currency and Exchange Rates - The US dollar index has remained strong, exerting depreciation pressure on the RMB, with a key observation point being whether the RMB will break the 7.3 level[18] - Since 2022, measures have been taken three times to stabilize the RMB at the 7.3 exchange rate level, indicating a critical threshold for market monitoring[18] Risks and Outlook - The macroeconomic outlook remains uncertain, with potential for unexpected changes in macro policies[1] - The recent improvement in economic expectations may not be sustainable, particularly in the context of export performance and global economic conditions[9]

Economic Indicators - In November, the manufacturing PMI was 50.3%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating stable economic expansion[1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.0%, down 0.2 percentage points from last month, reflecting a slight contraction in the service sector[1] - The total profit of industrial enterprises from January to October was CNY 58,680.4 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 4.3%[20] Market Performance - The CSI 300 index rose by 1.32% this week, while the CSI 300 stock index futures increased by 0.82%[1] - Coking coal futures fell by 4.26%, while iron ore futures rose by 2.71% this week[1] - The 10-year government bond yield decreased by 6 basis points to 2.02%[1] Asset Allocation Recommendations - The recommended asset allocation order is: Stocks > Commodities > Bonds > Currency[2] - Industrial enterprise profits have been negative for three consecutive months, which may impact consumer demand and require further fiscal policy support[2] - The correlation coefficient between the cumulative year-on-year growth of industrial enterprise profits and per capita disposable income is 0.7, indicating a positive relationship[2] Risks and Outlook - Global inflation is declining slower than expected, and there is uncertainty regarding the pace of economic decline in Europe and the U.S.[2] - The focus remains on the implementation of "incremental" policies and the effects of growth stabilization measures in the fourth quarter[3]

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector Insights - The manufacturing PMI index for November is 50.3%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from October, indicating slight expansion in manufacturing activity[2] - The new orders index stands at 50.8%, up 0.8 percentage points from October, while the new export orders index has risen to 48.1%[2] - The production index is at 52.4%, reflecting a 0.4 percentage point increase from the previous month, indicating ongoing production growth[2] - The supplier delivery time index is at 50.2%, up 0.6 percentage points from October, suggesting improved delivery times[2] Group 2: Demand and Pricing Trends - Domestic and overseas demand are recovering, with new orders and finished goods inventory indices rising by 0.8 and 0.5 percentage points, respectively[5] - The ex-factory price index has decreased by 2.2 percentage points, driven by a 3.6 percentage point drop in the major raw material purchase price index[7] - The manufacturing production expectation index is at 54.7%, up 0.7 percentage points from October, indicating positive business sentiment[2] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing Sector Insights - The non-manufacturing PMI index is at 50.0%, down 0.2 percentage points from October, remaining at the threshold level[11] - The new orders index for the non-manufacturing sector is at 45.9%, a decline of 1.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating weaker demand[11] - The employment index in the non-manufacturing sector is at 45.4%, down 0.4 percentage points, continuing to indicate contraction in employment[11] Group 4: Risks and Future Outlook - Risks include unexpected resilience in overseas inflation and uncertainties related to geopolitical relations[2] - The construction sector's PMI index has dropped to 49.7%, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points, indicating a contraction in construction activity due to seasonal factors[14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the power equipment and new energy industry [1]. Core Views - The report highlights the ongoing optimization of the photovoltaic supply side, with expectations of price increases for components, benefiting leading manufacturers [1]. - Wind power demand is expected to improve, driven by domestic project tenders and overseas demand, suggesting a recovery in profitability for related sectors [1]. - The report emphasizes the growth potential in the new energy vehicle market, with significant sales increases anticipated in 2024 and 2025, supported by policies like trade-in incentives [1]. - The solid-state battery industry is accelerating, with companies in battery, materials, and equipment sectors likely to benefit from advancements in this technology [1]. - The report notes the continuous push for power system reforms in China, which is expected to enhance demand for high-voltage and main network equipment [1]. - Hydrogen energy policies are promoting industrial development, with a focus on companies with cost and technological advantages in electrolyzer production and hydrogen infrastructure [1]. Summary by Sections Photovoltaic Sector - The U.S. Department of Commerce has released preliminary anti-dumping tax rates for four Southeast Asian countries, with Malaysia having a relatively low rate [1]. - Domestic polysilicon production is projected to decrease, with November output at 111,600 tons and December expected to drop to 91,100 tons, indicating a tightening supply [1][32]. - Prices for silicon materials are expected to decline slightly due to low demand and inventory pressures, with current prices for domestic silicon granules around 35-36 RMB per kg [28]. Wind Power Sector - Domestic and overseas wind power projects are expected to see steady progress, with significant demand anticipated for both complete machines and components [1]. - The report suggests prioritizing investments in sectors likely to benefit from offshore wind and related infrastructure [1]. New Energy Vehicles - The report anticipates a substantial increase in new energy vehicle sales in 2024, driven by favorable policies and market conditions [1]. - Companies like CATL are investing heavily in lithium extraction projects, indicating strong growth prospects in the supply chain [32]. Battery Technology - The solid-state battery sector is gaining momentum, with significant investments in production capacity expected to yield benefits for companies involved in this technology [1][32]. - The report highlights the strategic partnerships being formed to develop solid-state electrolyte membranes, indicating a collaborative approach to innovation in the battery sector [32]. Hydrogen Energy - Continuous policy support for hydrogen energy is noted, with recommendations to focus on companies that have competitive advantages in production and infrastructure [1].

| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------|----------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 证券研究报告 \n11 月金股组合 股票代码 | —— | 晨会聚焦 \n股票名称 | | 2024 年 11 月 29 日 \n中银晨会聚焦 -20241129 | | 600383.SH | | 金地集团 | | | | 1519.HK | | 极兔速递 | -W | | | | | | | ■ 重点关注 | | 600309.SH | | 万华化学 | | | | 688019.SH 300750.SZ | | 安集科技 宁德时代 | | 【宏观经济】 1-10 月工企利润数据点评 * 陈琦 朱启兵。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1][2]. Core Views - The company faces challenges such as weak effective demand and exchange rate fluctuations, leading to a significant decline in revenue and net profit. However, operational cash flow has improved substantially, indicating effective cash management [2]. - The company is adapting to pressures in the bulk commodity supply chain management industry through strategic adjustments and business innovations, including the establishment of an Australian platform to enhance international operations [2]. - Future growth is anticipated due to favorable national policies aimed at optimizing supply and demand, which may improve the company's external environment and core competitiveness [2]. Financial Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenue of RMB 286.33 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 28.55%, and a net profit of RMB 0.712 billion, down 61.83% [2]. - The company expects net profits for 2024-2026 to be RMB 1.322 billion, RMB 2.046 billion, and RMB 2.507 billion, reflecting year-on-year changes of -30.9%, +54.7%, and +22.5% respectively [2][3]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for the same period is projected to be RMB 0.61, RMB 0.94, and RMB 1.16, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 10.9, 7.0, and 5.7 [3][4].

Economic Overview - From January to October 2024, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size reached CNY 58,680.4 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 4.3%, with a decline of 0.8 percentage points compared to the previous three quarters[1] - In October 2024, the profit of industrial enterprises fell by 10.0% year-on-year, a narrowing of the decline by 17.1 percentage points compared to September[2] Revenue and Cost Analysis - The operating revenue of industrial enterprises from January to October 2024 grew by 1.9% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous three quarters, with revenue per CNY 100 of assets at CNY 77.3, an increase of CNY 0.1[2] - Operating costs increased by 2.3% year-on-year, with the growth rate narrowing by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous three quarters, indicating cost pressures affecting profitability[2] Profitability Insights - The operating profit margin for industrial enterprises was 5.3% from January to October 2024, unchanged from the previous three quarters[2] - The industrial added value growth rate in October was 5.3%, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points from September, indicating ongoing production activity support for profitability[3] Sector Performance - The manufacturing sector's profit decreased by 4.2% year-on-year from January to October 2024, with the decline expanding by 0.4 percentage points compared to the previous three quarters, indicating weakening support for profitability[5] - The contribution of the raw material processing industry to profit growth was negative, dragging down the cumulative year-on-year growth rate by 3.6 percentage points, with significant negative contributions from the petroleum, coal, and non-metallic mineral industries[5] Future Outlook - Continuous negative profit growth for industrial enterprises over three months may impact household income and consumption demand, necessitating fiscal policy support to stimulate demand and improve the cycle between corporate profits and household income[15] - A correlation coefficient of 0.7 between cumulative profit growth and disposable income growth suggests that insufficient industrial profits may lead to weak consumer demand, highlighting the need for fiscal intervention[15]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry index is expected to perform better than the benchmark index over the next 6-12 months [8]. Core Insights - The report highlights that favorable capital market policies are continuously being implemented, which is expected to enhance market liquidity and stability, thereby promoting the securities industry's left-side layout value [1]. - Recent market fluctuations have led to a short-term valuation correction in the brokerage sector, creating a window for investment opportunities. As of November 27, the price-to-book ratio was 1.48x, down 11.90% from the peak of 1.68x on November 7 [1]. - The report suggests a continued focus on merger and acquisition (M&A) activities within the brokerage sector, particularly those that align with long-term strategic goals and can effectively integrate resources [1]. Summary by Sections Capital Market Policies - Since September, a series of favorable policies have been driving the recovery of market confidence and significantly improving liquidity. The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has emphasized addressing the challenges faced by long-term funds entering the market [1]. Market Valuation - The recent volatility in the equity market has resulted in a valuation correction for the brokerage sector, with the current price-to-book ratio situated within the historical valuation range of 15%-20% [1]. M&A Focus - The report recommends ongoing attention to M&A activities, particularly those that enhance strategic positioning and operational efficiency within the brokerage sector [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the real estate sector, indicating a clear upward trend in the market [1]. Core Insights - New housing transaction area has turned positive on a month-on-month basis, with a 3.6% increase, while year-on-year growth remains at 9.3%, although the growth rate has narrowed [1][15]. - The second-hand housing market shows a decrease in transaction area by 9.1% month-on-month but maintains a year-on-year increase of 4.6% [1][19]. - New housing inventory has decreased both month-on-month and year-on-year, with a total inventory of 9440 million square meters, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 0.2% and a year-on-year decline of 8.7% [1][25]. - The land market has seen an increase in transaction volume but a decrease in price, with total land transaction area rising by 189.8% month-on-month and 18.0% year-on-year, while the average floor price has decreased by 16.2% month-on-month [1][8]. Summary by Sections 1. New Housing Market Tracking - In the week of November 16 to November 22, 2024, new housing transaction volume in 40 cities reached 29,000 units, marking an 8.8% increase month-on-month and a 1.2% increase year-on-year [1][15]. - The transaction area for new housing was 313.9 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 3.6% and a year-on-year increase of 9.3% [1][15]. 2. Land Market Tracking - The total land transaction area across 100 cities was 2,662.7 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 189.8% and a year-on-year increase of 18.0% [1][8]. - The total land transaction price reached 848.6 billion yuan, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 143.0% and a year-on-year increase of 52.5% [1][8]. 3. Policy Overview - Recent policies have focused on stabilizing the real estate market, including the cancellation of classification standards for residential properties in major cities, which is expected to enhance market confidence [1][19]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main lines for investment opportunities: 1. Companies expected to benefit from policy easing, such as Jindi Group and Vanke A [1][19]. 2. Companies with strong positioning in core cities, like Greentown China and China Resources Land [1][19]. 3. Local state-owned enterprises benefiting from debt resolution and inventory acquisition, such as Yuexiu Property and Jianfa Group [1][19].

| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------|----------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 证券研究报告 \n11 月金股组合 股票代码 | —— | 晨会聚焦 \n 股票名称 | | 2024 年 11 月 26 日 \n中银晨会聚焦 | | 600383.SH | | 金地集团 | | -20241126 | | | | 极兔速递 | | | | 1519.HK | | | -W | ■ 重点关注 | | 600309.SH | | 万华化学 | | | | 688019.SH | | 安集科技 | | 【固定收益】近期债市热点问题分析 * 肖成哲 张鹏。股债跷跷板效应弱化， | | 300750.SZ 0006 ...