Economic Overview - From January to October 2024, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size reached CNY 58,680.4 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 4.3%, with a decline of 0.8 percentage points compared to the previous three quarters[1] - In October 2024, the profit of industrial enterprises fell by 10.0% year-on-year, a narrowing of the decline by 17.1 percentage points compared to September[2] Revenue and Cost Analysis - The operating revenue of industrial enterprises from January to October 2024 grew by 1.9% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous three quarters, with revenue per CNY 100 of assets at CNY 77.3, an increase of CNY 0.1[2] - Operating costs increased by 2.3% year-on-year, with the growth rate narrowing by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous three quarters, indicating cost pressures affecting profitability[2] Profitability Insights - The operating profit margin for industrial enterprises was 5.3% from January to October 2024, unchanged from the previous three quarters[2] - The industrial added value growth rate in October was 5.3%, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points from September, indicating ongoing production activity support for profitability[3] Sector Performance - The manufacturing sector's profit decreased by 4.2% year-on-year from January to October 2024, with the decline expanding by 0.4 percentage points compared to the previous three quarters, indicating weakening support for profitability[5] - The contribution of the raw material processing industry to profit growth was negative, dragging down the cumulative year-on-year growth rate by 3.6 percentage points, with significant negative contributions from the petroleum, coal, and non-metallic mineral industries[5] Future Outlook - Continuous negative profit growth for industrial enterprises over three months may impact household income and consumption demand, necessitating fiscal policy support to stimulate demand and improve the cycle between corporate profits and household income[15] - A correlation coefficient of 0.7 between cumulative profit growth and disposable income growth suggests that insufficient industrial profits may lead to weak consumer demand, highlighting the need for fiscal intervention[15]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry index is expected to perform better than the benchmark index over the next 6-12 months [8]. Core Insights - The report highlights that favorable capital market policies are continuously being implemented, which is expected to enhance market liquidity and stability, thereby promoting the securities industry's left-side layout value [1]. - Recent market fluctuations have led to a short-term valuation correction in the brokerage sector, creating a window for investment opportunities. As of November 27, the price-to-book ratio was 1.48x, down 11.90% from the peak of 1.68x on November 7 [1]. - The report suggests a continued focus on merger and acquisition (M&A) activities within the brokerage sector, particularly those that align with long-term strategic goals and can effectively integrate resources [1]. Summary by Sections Capital Market Policies - Since September, a series of favorable policies have been driving the recovery of market confidence and significantly improving liquidity. The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has emphasized addressing the challenges faced by long-term funds entering the market [1]. Market Valuation - The recent volatility in the equity market has resulted in a valuation correction for the brokerage sector, with the current price-to-book ratio situated within the historical valuation range of 15%-20% [1]. M&A Focus - The report recommends ongoing attention to M&A activities, particularly those that enhance strategic positioning and operational efficiency within the brokerage sector [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the real estate sector, indicating a clear upward trend in the market [1]. Core Insights - New housing transaction area has turned positive on a month-on-month basis, with a 3.6% increase, while year-on-year growth remains at 9.3%, although the growth rate has narrowed [1][15]. - The second-hand housing market shows a decrease in transaction area by 9.1% month-on-month but maintains a year-on-year increase of 4.6% [1][19]. - New housing inventory has decreased both month-on-month and year-on-year, with a total inventory of 9440 million square meters, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 0.2% and a year-on-year decline of 8.7% [1][25]. - The land market has seen an increase in transaction volume but a decrease in price, with total land transaction area rising by 189.8% month-on-month and 18.0% year-on-year, while the average floor price has decreased by 16.2% month-on-month [1][8]. Summary by Sections 1. New Housing Market Tracking - In the week of November 16 to November 22, 2024, new housing transaction volume in 40 cities reached 29,000 units, marking an 8.8% increase month-on-month and a 1.2% increase year-on-year [1][15]. - The transaction area for new housing was 313.9 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 3.6% and a year-on-year increase of 9.3% [1][15]. 2. Land Market Tracking - The total land transaction area across 100 cities was 2,662.7 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 189.8% and a year-on-year increase of 18.0% [1][8]. - The total land transaction price reached 848.6 billion yuan, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 143.0% and a year-on-year increase of 52.5% [1][8]. 3. Policy Overview - Recent policies have focused on stabilizing the real estate market, including the cancellation of classification standards for residential properties in major cities, which is expected to enhance market confidence [1][19]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main lines for investment opportunities: 1. Companies expected to benefit from policy easing, such as Jindi Group and Vanke A [1][19]. 2. Companies with strong positioning in core cities, like Greentown China and China Resources Land [1][19]. 3. Local state-owned enterprises benefiting from debt resolution and inventory acquisition, such as Yuexiu Property and Jianfa Group [1][19].

| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------|----------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 证券研究报告 \n11 月金股组合 股票代码 | —— | 晨会聚焦 \n 股票名称 | | 2024 年 11 月 26 日 \n中银晨会聚焦 | | 600383.SH | | 金地集团 | | -20241126 | | | | 极兔速递 | | | | 1519.HK | | | -W | ■ 重点关注 | | 600309.SH | | 万华化学 | | | | 688019.SH | | 安集科技 | | 【固定收益】近期债市热点问题分析 * 肖成哲 张鹏。股债跷跷板效应弱化， | | 300750.SZ 0006 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the social services industry [1]. Core Insights - The social services sector experienced a decline of 7.52% in the last two trading weeks, ranking 26th among 31 industries in the Shenwan classification, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.72 percentage points [1][27]. - Recent policy changes, including the expansion of visa-free travel and an increase in statutory holidays for 2025, are expected to boost inbound tourism and domestic travel [1][55]. Market Review & Industry Dynamics - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 5.36%, while the CSI 300 dropped by 5.81% during the same period [1][27]. - The sub-sectors within social services, including professional services, education, tourism, and hospitality, all reported declines, with tourism retail experiencing the largest drop at 11.08% [1][32]. - The number of domestic flights executed from November 11 to November 17 was 99,297, slightly down by 0.04% from the previous week, but still at 99.25% of the levels seen in 2019 [1]. Key News - The visa-free policy will expand to include nine countries starting November 30, 2024, which is anticipated to significantly enhance inbound tourism [1][41]. - The addition of two statutory holidays in 2025 is expected to stimulate travel demand, particularly benefiting the tourism sector [1][41]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong growth prospects in the travel and related industries, such as Huangshan Tourism, Lijiang Co., Songcheng Performance, and others [1][55]. - It also highlights the potential benefits for hotel brands like Junting Hotel and Jinjiang Hotel due to the recovery of business travel and increased market share post-pandemic [1][55].

Investment Rating - The report rates the computer industry as "Outperforming the Market," indicating that the industry index is expected to perform better than the benchmark index over the next 6-12 months [8]. Core Insights - The report highlights that cooling challenges have become a significant issue for AI computing power, with liquid cooling technology poised to benefit from this trend. Recent media reports indicate that NVIDIA's Blackwell chip server design faced overheating issues, but these have been resolved, alleviating concerns about supply delays [1][2]. - The demand for AI computing power is projected to continue growing, with substantial market opportunities for liquid cooling and other new technologies. The AI server market in China is expected to reach $13.4 billion, $30.7 billion, and $56.1 billion from 2023 to 2025, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 101%, 128%, and 83% respectively [1]. - The liquid cooling industry is anticipated to transition from a technology reserve phase to a full-scale promotion phase, driven by the increasing demand for AI computing power in data centers. Companies like Vertiv have raised their long-term revenue growth targets, indicating a positive outlook for the liquid cooling market [1]. Summary by Sections Section: Cooling Challenges - The report discusses the overheating issues faced by NVIDIA's Blackwell chip, which utilizes a 4nm process and has a performance of 20 PetaFLOPS. The need for new cooling solutions has become evident as existing systems cannot handle the heat generated by high-load operations [1]. Section: Market Growth - AI computing power is expected to require a 1 million-fold increase over the next decade, significantly surpassing the 100-fold growth predicted by Moore's Law. This growth is expected to drive demand for liquid cooling products in data centers [1]. Section: Industry Transition - The report notes that the liquid cooling industry is moving towards widespread adoption, with traditional air cooling methods becoming inadequate for high-performance chips like the Blackwell GPU. Companies in the domestic liquid cooling supply chain are positioned to benefit from this transition [1].

Investment Rating - The report rates the transportation industry as "Outperform" [3] Core Insights - Concerns over tariffs have led to a significant increase in cargo volumes at U.S. ports, with new orders for oil tankers also rising recently. In October, China's total import and export value reached 37,007 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.6% [26][27] - The International Air Transport Association (IATA) predicts that domestic air passenger traffic in China will grow at an average annual rate of 5.7% over the next 20 years, which is higher than the global average of 3.8% [29][30] - China's express delivery volume has surpassed 150 billion packages for the first time, with an average of over 5,400 packages generated per second [37][38] Industry Dynamics Shipping and Ports - The Drewry World Container Index (WCI) reported a 1% decrease week-on-week, currently at approximately $3,413 per FEU, which is 67% lower than the peak in September 2021 [26] - The SCFI index reported at 2,160.08 points, with a week-on-week decrease of 4.08% but a year-on-year increase of 116.03% [54] Air Logistics - Air freight prices are on an upward trend, with the Shanghai outbound air freight price index at 5,339 points, a year-on-year increase of 4.0% [42] - In October, domestic cargo flights increased by 16.04% year-on-year, while international flights saw a 40.40% increase [49] Express Logistics - The express delivery industry in China has achieved a historic milestone, with annual business volume exceeding 150 billion packages, marking a significant growth in the sector [37] - The rise of drone delivery services is becoming a new trend in the low-altitude economy, significantly improving delivery efficiency [38] Investment Recommendations - Focus on the equipment and manufacturing export chain, recommending companies such as COSCO Shipping Energy, China Merchants Energy Shipping, and Huamao Logistics [28] - Pay attention to the low-altitude economy investment opportunities, particularly in companies like CITIC Offshore Helicopter [28] - Consider investment opportunities in the cruise and ferry sectors, recommending Bohai Ferry and Haixia Stock [28] - Explore e-commerce and express delivery investment opportunities, recommending Jitu Express and Yunda Holdings [28] - Look into the aviation sector, recommending China National Aviation Holdings, China Southern Airlines, Spring Airlines, and Huaxia Airlines [28]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry index is expected to perform better than the benchmark index over the next 6-12 months [9]. Core Insights - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) released revised "Photovoltaic Manufacturing Industry Standard Conditions (2024)," which strengthens energy and water consumption indicators across various segments, likely promoting continuous supply-side optimization [2][3]. - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association (CPIA) reported that the cost of photovoltaic components has stabilized, with the minimum price rising to 0.69 yuan/W, reflecting a commitment to reduce internal competition and potentially enhance industry profitability [2][3]. - The industry is gradually establishing a bottom, with expectations of limited production in silicon wafers and price increases in photovoltaic cells and components, suggesting a potential phase of price hikes in the photovoltaic supply chain [2][3]. Summary by Sections Regulatory Changes - The MIIT's revised standards include stricter energy consumption limits for new and expanded projects, with electricity consumption reduced to less than 40 kWh/kg and comprehensive electricity consumption to less than 53 kWh/kg [2]. - New requirements for silicon wafers and batteries encourage the use of recycled water, with specific water consumption limits set for new projects [2]. Supply-Side Optimization - The increase in production thresholds is expected to benefit leading companies with lower energy consumption, while high-energy-consuming enterprises may face challenges in expanding production [2][3]. - The CPIA's analysis indicates that the cost of components has remained stable, with a slight increase in minimum pricing, which may help improve overall industry margins [2][3]. Market Outlook - The report suggests that the photovoltaic industry is moving towards a more sustainable competitive environment, with production restrictions likely to enhance pricing power and profitability across the supply chain [2][3]. - Recommended companies include JA Solar Technology, JinkoSolar, LONGi Green Energy, Trina Solar, and Junda Co., with additional attention suggested for Shuangliang Eco-Energy, Tongwei Co., GCL-Poly Energy, and Daqo New Energy [3].

Core Insights - The report emphasizes a positive outlook for the stock market, suggesting a preference for equities over commodities, bonds, and cash in the asset allocation hierarchy [2][5] - The macroeconomic environment is expected to stabilize, with a focus on fiscal and monetary policy adjustments to support growth in 2025 [5][7] Economic Data - In October, national public budget revenue increased by 5.5% year-on-year, while expenditure rose by 10.4% year-on-year [3] - The report highlights ongoing government efforts to promote the healthy development of the platform economy and stabilize foreign trade growth [3] Market Performance - The A-share market experienced adjustments influenced by external factors, with the CSI 300 index declining by 2.6% [4] - Key commodities such as coking coal and iron ore saw price increases of 2.68% and 3.75%, respectively, during the same period [4] Asset Allocation Recommendations - The recommended order for asset allocation is stocks > commodities > bonds > cash, reflecting a strategic approach to navigating the current economic landscape [5] - The report anticipates that fixed asset investment will remain a crucial driver for stable growth in 2025, supported by local government debt issuance [5] Market Trends - The report notes a short-term market pressure but maintains a medium-term upward trend, driven by improving domestic demand indicators and government policy support [7][8] - The report indicates a shift in market sentiment, with defensive sectors like utilities and basic chemicals showing relative resilience amid broader market declines [8]

Investment Rating - The report rates the chemical industry as "Outperform" [1] Core Views - The report highlights the recent increase in international oil prices and the decline in prices of natural rubber and polymer MDI [1] - It suggests focusing on high-performing sectors such as refrigerants and vitamins, as well as undervalued leading companies in the macroeconomic recovery context [1][18] - The report emphasizes the importance of high-quality development and shareholder returns, recommending investments in major energy state-owned enterprises and related oil service companies [1][18] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - During the week of November 18-24, 2024, among 101 tracked chemical products, 28 saw price increases, 44 experienced declines, and 29 remained stable [1][18] - The average price of WTI crude oil rose to $71.23 per barrel, marking a weekly increase of 6.38% [1] - The report notes geopolitical tensions affecting oil prices and anticipates continued fluctuations in the market [1][18] Investment Recommendations - As of November 24, 2024, the SW basic chemical sector's P/E ratio (TTM excluding negative values) stands at 21.63, within the historical 65.59% percentile [1][18] - The report recommends focusing on sectors with high growth potential, such as refrigerants and vitamins, and suggests monitoring leading companies in the light hydrocracking sub-industry [1][18] - Long-term investment themes include the sustained high demand in the oil and gas extraction sector and the anticipated recovery in the semiconductor industry [1][18] Key Companies to Watch - Recommended companies include China Petroleum, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, and Wanhua Chemical [1][18] - The report identifies "Anji Technology" and "Wanhua Chemical" as key stocks for November [3][4]