Economic Overview - In October, national general public budget revenue increased by 5.5% year-on-year, while expenditure rose by 10.4%[1] - The State Council is focusing on promoting the healthy development of the platform economy and stabilizing foreign trade growth through various policy measures[1] Asset Performance - The CSI 300 index fell by 2.6% this week, influenced by overseas factors, while the CSI 300 stock index futures dropped by 2.9%[2] - Coking coal futures increased by 2.68%, and iron ore main contracts rose by 3.75% this week[2] - The yield on ten-year government bonds decreased by 1 basis point to 2.08%[2] Asset Allocation Recommendations - The recommended order for major asset allocation is: Stocks > Commodities > Bonds > Currency[3] - The political bureau meeting in December is expected to introduce targeted policies based on economic data from September and October, focusing on fiscal and monetary policy adjustments[3] - The Ministry of Finance has allocated a local government debt limit of 6 trillion yuan, with some provinces already starting issuance[3] Risk Factors - Global inflation is declining slowly, and there is uncertainty regarding the speed of economic downturns in Europe and the U.S.[3] Market Insights - The A-share market is experiencing adjustments, with small-cap stocks seeing a more significant decline compared to large-cap stocks[2] - The average annualized yield of money market funds is fluctuating around 2%, with the yield of Yu'ebao decreasing by 2 basis points to 1.31%[2]

Core Viewpoints - The market is expected to experience a short-term pressure due to a faster decline in expectations compared to the rise in policies and fundamentals, but the logic of a gradual upward trend remains intact [2][3] - The market is entering a phase of anticipation for macro policies in 2025, with a focus on economic work meetings as the year-end approaches [3][21] Market Overview - Recent data on real estate transactions, second-hand housing prices, and excavator sales indicate a point-wise recovery in domestic demand [3][21] - The market saw a mixed performance with cyclical and dividend sectors alternating in dominance, while external factors led to a market pullback on Friday [3][21] - The trend of active versus passive fund performance highlights the difficulty in obtaining quality alpha, with passive funds currently outperforming due to lower fees and higher positions [27][29] Industry Insights - The AI application sector is showing promising results, with companies like AppLovin reporting strong third-quarter performance, indicating a rapid commercialization of AI products [3][30] - The consumer electronics industry is experiencing a slow recovery, but the introduction of AI-driven products like AI glasses and headphones is expected to catalyze growth [30][31] Fund Flow and Sector Performance - The week saw a notable shift in fund flows, with defensive sectors like utilities, non-ferrous metals, and basic chemicals showing relative resilience amid profit-taking in consumer sectors [25][39] - The coal, banking, and light manufacturing sectors saw significant net inflows, while consumer services and food and beverage sectors faced notable pressure [39] Conclusion - The overall market sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, with expectations of continued upward movement despite short-term fluctuations, driven by macroeconomic policy anticipation and sector-specific developments [3][21][30]

Investment Rating - The report rates the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry as "Outperforming the Market" [1][44]. Core Insights - The integration of "medical insurance + commercial insurance" is expected to alleviate the financial pressure on healthcare payments, with data sharing between these two systems providing a foundation for one-stop settlement solutions [2][31]. - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector has shown resilience, with the Shenwan Pharmaceutical and Biotechnology Index declining by 2.36% from November 18 to November 22, 2024, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.24 percentage points during the same period [1][20]. - The current price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) for the Shenwan Pharmaceutical and Biotechnology sector is 26.79, indicating a significant recovery from the lows observed in July-August 2024 [1][26]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The Shenwan Pharmaceutical and Biotechnology Index experienced a decline of 2.36% from November 18 to November 22, 2024, while the CSI 300 Index fell by 2.60%, resulting in a relative outperformance of 0.24 percentage points [20]. - All sub-sectors within the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry saw declines, but the chemical pharmaceuticals, medical commerce, medical devices, and biological products sub-sectors outperformed the CSI 300 Index [22]. Investment Opportunities - The report highlights promising investment opportunities in innovative medical devices and pharmaceuticals, recommending companies such as Baijun Medical, Sanyou Medical, and Heng Rui Medicine, which are entering rapid sales growth phases [3]. - It also suggests monitoring companies in the traditional Chinese medicine sector, raw materials, CXO services, medical services, vaccines, and retail pharmacies for potential growth [3]. Data Sharing and Insurance Integration - The establishment of a national medical insurance platform aims to address issues such as information asymmetry and high verification costs in the commercial health insurance sector, facilitating the integration of medical and commercial insurance [32][33]. - The report draws parallels with the mature commercial insurance market in the United States, where employer-sponsored insurance plays a crucial role, covering approximately 68.7% of the population as of 2022 [34].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the power equipment and new energy industry [1]. Core Insights - The tightening of new capacity policies in the photovoltaic sector is expected to optimize supply-side dynamics, with a notable increase in component price expectations, benefiting leading manufacturers [1]. - The wind power sector is anticipated to see steady progress in domestic bidding and construction, with improved profitability in the machinery and component segments due to favorable demand [1]. - The electric vehicle market has shown strong sales performance, with expectations for continued growth in 2025, driving demand across the industry chain [1]. - The report highlights the acceleration of solid-state battery industrialization, suggesting that companies involved in relevant battery, material, and equipment sectors may benefit [1]. - The ongoing push for power system reform in China is expected to accelerate the construction of ultra-high voltage and main grid projects, maintaining high demand for related equipment [1]. - The hydrogen energy sector is also highlighted, with recommendations to focus on companies with cost and technological advantages in electrolyzer production and hydrogen infrastructure [1]. Summary by Sections Photovoltaic Sector - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has tightened energy consumption and water usage standards for new and expanded silicon material and cell production [1]. - In October 2024, newly installed photovoltaic capacity reached 20.42 GW, a year-on-year increase of 50% [34]. Wind Power Sector - New wind power installations in October 2024 totaled 9.50 GW, representing a year-on-year growth of 148% [34]. - The report suggests prioritizing investments in machinery and casting segments that are expected to benefit from offshore wind projects [1]. Electric Vehicle Market - The report notes that the EU is nearing a resolution to eliminate tariffs on electric vehicles from China, which could further stimulate the market [1][33]. - The overall sales growth in the electric vehicle sector is expected to continue into 2025, enhancing demand across the supply chain [1]. Battery Technology - The report emphasizes the rapid development of solid-state battery production, with companies involved in this technology likely to see benefits [1]. - The establishment of a new GWh-level solid-state battery production line in Wuhu, Anhui, is noted as a significant industry development [34]. Power Equipment - The National Energy Administration has issued 1.232 billion green certificates in October 2024, with wind power accounting for 43.01% of the total [34]. - The report recommends focusing on companies benefiting from the high demand for ultra-high voltage projects and those with international expansion strategies [1]. Hydrogen Energy - The report suggests monitoring companies with competitive advantages in electrolyzer production and those involved in hydrogen storage and refueling infrastructure [1].

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - In October, both new and second-hand housing transactions showed positive growth on a month-on-month and year-on-year basis, driven by the implementation of various macroeconomic and fiscal policies [1] - The new housing transaction volume in October saw its first year-on-year increase after 16 consecutive months of decline, with a month-on-month increase of 44.4% and a year-on-year increase of 9.7% [1] - The report anticipates continued slight recovery in transactions for November and December due to low base effects, ongoing policy impacts, and year-end sales pushes by real estate companies [1] Summary by Sections 1. New and Second-hand Housing Transactions - New housing transactions in October reached 1,355.6 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 44.4% and a year-on-year increase of 9.7%, marking a significant recovery after 16 months of decline [1][3] - Second-hand housing transactions also showed resilience, with a month-on-month increase of 17.3% and a year-on-year increase of 19.4%, continuing five months of positive growth [1][3] - Inventory levels and the de-stocking cycle both decreased month-on-month, indicating improved market conditions [1][3] 2. Land Market - The land transaction volume in October remained low, with a month-on-month increase of 8.1% but a year-on-year decrease of 21.3% [1][3] - The average land price was 1,408 yuan per square meter, reflecting a slight month-on-month decline of 0.4% and a year-on-year decline of 8.0% [1][3] 3. Real Estate Companies - The top 100 real estate companies reported a month-on-month sales increase of 5.4% in October, marking the first positive year-on-year growth since June 2023 [1][3] - Land acquisition intensity decreased, with a year-on-year decline of 52.4% in land investment by these companies [1][3] - Financing activities in October showed a slight year-on-year increase, but the absolute value remained low, indicating cautious market sentiment [1][3] 4. Policy Support - Various government departments have reiterated their support for the real estate sector, with policies accelerating implementation to stabilize the market [1][3] - Recent tax policy adjustments, including reductions in transaction taxes, are expected to further stimulate market activity [1][3] 5. Market Performance - The real estate sector saw a significant increase in stock performance in October, with an absolute return of 3.1%, outperforming the broader market [1][3] - The report suggests that the recovery in the real estate market is likely to continue, driven by supportive policies and improving fundamentals [1][3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" [9] Core Insights - The AI glasses industry is gaining momentum with major players entering the market, indicating a significant growth potential [1][2] - Recent advancements in both hardware and software for AI glasses are accelerating, with notable product launches expected in 2025 [1][2] - The introduction of AI glasses is seen as a new hardware terminal that could transition from "0 to 1," with 2025 being a pivotal year for product releases [2] Summary by Sections AI Glasses Market Developments - Baidu has launched the Xiaodu AI glasses, featuring a 16MP ultra-wide camera, four microphones, and various AI functionalities, set to be released in the first half of 2025 [2] - Samsung is expected to release its first AI glasses in Q3 2025, equipped with a Qualcomm AR1 chip and various recognition features, with an initial sales target of 500,000 units [2] - Apple's iOS 18.2 update introduces the Visual Intelligence feature, which could enhance the functionality of AI glasses by leveraging smartphone capabilities [2] Investment Recommendations - Companies entering the AI glasses market possess strong hardware and software capabilities, which will likely accelerate the industry's development [2] - Recommended stocks include GoerTek, Luxshare Precision, Longqi Technology, Hengxuan Technology, Juchip Technology, and Sitaiwei, with additional companies to watch being Tianjian Co., Jiahe Intelligent, Rockchip, Guoguang Electric, and Doctor Glasses [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Jiangfeng Electronics, indicating a positive outlook for the company's stock performance in the near future [3]. Core Insights - Jiangfeng Electronics reported a significant revenue growth of 41.77% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2024, reaching RMB 2.625 billion, with a net profit increase of 48.51% to RMB 287 million [1][2]. - The third quarter alone saw a revenue increase of 52.48% year-on-year, amounting to RMB 998 million, and a remarkable net profit growth of 213.13% to RMB 126 million [1][2]. - The company is actively expanding its high-purity target materials and precision components, positioning itself as a key supplier for major semiconductor manufacturers [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, Jiangfeng Electronics achieved a gross margin of 29.96%, a slight increase of 0.76 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The third quarter's gross margin was 28.26%, reflecting a decrease of 2.18 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The company’s operating expenses have improved efficiency, with sales, management, R&D, and financial expense ratios showing varied changes [2]. Business Development - Jiangfeng Electronics has established itself as a supplier of high-purity sputtering targets for renowned manufacturers such as SMIC, TSMC, and BOE [2]. - The company is constructing projects to produce ultra-high purity metal sputtering targets, with a planned annual output of 52,000 units for integrated circuits [2]. - The establishment of a subsidiary in South Korea aims to enhance international competitiveness and supply chain stability [2]. Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2024-2026 are projected at RMB 1.39, RMB 1.78, and RMB 2.43, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 53.6, 41.9, and 30.6 [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1][4]. Core Views - The oil transportation market showed weak supply and demand in Q3 2024, while the bulk shipping segment saw significant profit growth year-on-year. The company reported a revenue of RMB 19.296 billion for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.44%, but a net profit of RMB 3.369 billion, a decrease of 10.35% year-on-year. The net profits for the oil, bulk, container, and roll-on/roll-off businesses were RMB 2.060 billion, RMB 1.170 billion, RMB 0.472 billion, and RMB 0.249 billion, reflecting changes of -12.23%, +106.71%, -25.90%, and +14.75% respectively [4]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The company's stock price is currently at RMB 6.76, with a market capitalization of RMB 55.052 billion. The average trading volume over the past three months is RMB 423.65 million [1][3]. Business Segments - **Oil Transportation**: Revenue for the oil transportation business was RMB 6.982 billion, down 3.59% year-on-year, with a net profit of RMB 2.060 billion, down 12.23%. The average TCE for the TD3C route was USD 36,846 per day, up 4.24% year-on-year [4]. - **Bulk Shipping**: Revenue for the bulk shipping business was RMB 6.070 billion, up 17.86% year-on-year, with a net profit of RMB 1.170 billion, up 106.71%. The average BDI index was 1,845 points, up 57% year-on-year [4]. - **Container Shipping**: Revenue for the container shipping business was RMB 4.053 billion, up 0.17% year-on-year, with a net profit of RMB 0.472 billion, down 25.90% [4]. Financial Projections - The report adjusts the profit forecast for the company, projecting net profits of RMB 4.828 billion, RMB 6.180 billion, and RMB 7.458 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with growth rates of -0.2%, 28.0%, and 20.7%. The corresponding EPS is projected to be RMB 0.59, RMB 0.76, and RMB 0.92, with P/E ratios of 11.4, 8.9, and 7.4 respectively [4][5].

| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------|----------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 证券研究报告 \n11 月金股组合 | —— | 晨会聚焦 \n | | 2024 年 11 月 20 日 \n中银晨会聚焦 | | 股票代码 600383.SH | | 股票名称 金地集团 | | -20241120 | | | | 极兔速递 | | | | 1519.HK | | | -W | ■ 重点关注 | | 600309.SH | | 万华化学 | | | | 688019.S ...

Economic Data - In October, the industrial added value increased by 5.3% year-on-year, while retail sales of consumer goods grew by 4.8%[30] - Fixed asset investment rose by 3.4% year-on-year from January to October, with real estate development investment declining by 10.3%[30] - The urban surveyed unemployment rate in October was 5.0%, down by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[30] Market Performance - The CSI 300 index fell by 3.29% this week, while the CSI 300 stock index futures dropped by 2.94%[19] - Futures for coking coal and iron ore decreased by 5.26% and 4.78%, respectively[19] - The 7-day annualized yield of Yu'ebao fell by 2 basis points to 1.32%[19] Asset Allocation Recommendations - The recommended order for asset allocation is: Stocks > Commodities > Bonds > Currency[2] - The bond market is expected to be influenced by the "stock-bond seesaw" effect in the short term, with a standard allocation suggested[3] Risks - Global inflation is declining slowly, and there is a risk of a rapid economic downturn in Europe and the U.S.[2]