Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - In October, both new and second-hand housing transactions showed positive growth on a month-on-month and year-on-year basis, driven by the implementation of various macroeconomic and fiscal policies [1] - The new housing transaction volume in October saw its first year-on-year increase after 16 consecutive months of decline, with a month-on-month increase of 44.4% and a year-on-year increase of 9.7% [1] - The report anticipates continued slight recovery in transactions for November and December due to low base effects, ongoing policy impacts, and year-end sales pushes by real estate companies [1] Summary by Sections 1. New and Second-hand Housing Transactions - New housing transactions in October reached 1,355.6 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 44.4% and a year-on-year increase of 9.7%, marking a significant recovery after 16 months of decline [1][3] - Second-hand housing transactions also showed resilience, with a month-on-month increase of 17.3% and a year-on-year increase of 19.4%, continuing five months of positive growth [1][3] - Inventory levels and the de-stocking cycle both decreased month-on-month, indicating improved market conditions [1][3] 2. Land Market - The land transaction volume in October remained low, with a month-on-month increase of 8.1% but a year-on-year decrease of 21.3% [1][3] - The average land price was 1,408 yuan per square meter, reflecting a slight month-on-month decline of 0.4% and a year-on-year decline of 8.0% [1][3] 3. Real Estate Companies - The top 100 real estate companies reported a month-on-month sales increase of 5.4% in October, marking the first positive year-on-year growth since June 2023 [1][3] - Land acquisition intensity decreased, with a year-on-year decline of 52.4% in land investment by these companies [1][3] - Financing activities in October showed a slight year-on-year increase, but the absolute value remained low, indicating cautious market sentiment [1][3] 4. Policy Support - Various government departments have reiterated their support for the real estate sector, with policies accelerating implementation to stabilize the market [1][3] - Recent tax policy adjustments, including reductions in transaction taxes, are expected to further stimulate market activity [1][3] 5. Market Performance - The real estate sector saw a significant increase in stock performance in October, with an absolute return of 3.1%, outperforming the broader market [1][3] - The report suggests that the recovery in the real estate market is likely to continue, driven by supportive policies and improving fundamentals [1][3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" [9] Core Insights - The AI glasses industry is gaining momentum with major players entering the market, indicating a significant growth potential [1][2] - Recent advancements in both hardware and software for AI glasses are accelerating, with notable product launches expected in 2025 [1][2] - The introduction of AI glasses is seen as a new hardware terminal that could transition from "0 to 1," with 2025 being a pivotal year for product releases [2] Summary by Sections AI Glasses Market Developments - Baidu has launched the Xiaodu AI glasses, featuring a 16MP ultra-wide camera, four microphones, and various AI functionalities, set to be released in the first half of 2025 [2] - Samsung is expected to release its first AI glasses in Q3 2025, equipped with a Qualcomm AR1 chip and various recognition features, with an initial sales target of 500,000 units [2] - Apple's iOS 18.2 update introduces the Visual Intelligence feature, which could enhance the functionality of AI glasses by leveraging smartphone capabilities [2] Investment Recommendations - Companies entering the AI glasses market possess strong hardware and software capabilities, which will likely accelerate the industry's development [2] - Recommended stocks include GoerTek, Luxshare Precision, Longqi Technology, Hengxuan Technology, Juchip Technology, and Sitaiwei, with additional companies to watch being Tianjian Co., Jiahe Intelligent, Rockchip, Guoguang Electric, and Doctor Glasses [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Jiangfeng Electronics, indicating a positive outlook for the company's stock performance in the near future [3]. Core Insights - Jiangfeng Electronics reported a significant revenue growth of 41.77% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2024, reaching RMB 2.625 billion, with a net profit increase of 48.51% to RMB 287 million [1][2]. - The third quarter alone saw a revenue increase of 52.48% year-on-year, amounting to RMB 998 million, and a remarkable net profit growth of 213.13% to RMB 126 million [1][2]. - The company is actively expanding its high-purity target materials and precision components, positioning itself as a key supplier for major semiconductor manufacturers [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, Jiangfeng Electronics achieved a gross margin of 29.96%, a slight increase of 0.76 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The third quarter's gross margin was 28.26%, reflecting a decrease of 2.18 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The company’s operating expenses have improved efficiency, with sales, management, R&D, and financial expense ratios showing varied changes [2]. Business Development - Jiangfeng Electronics has established itself as a supplier of high-purity sputtering targets for renowned manufacturers such as SMIC, TSMC, and BOE [2]. - The company is constructing projects to produce ultra-high purity metal sputtering targets, with a planned annual output of 52,000 units for integrated circuits [2]. - The establishment of a subsidiary in South Korea aims to enhance international competitiveness and supply chain stability [2]. Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2024-2026 are projected at RMB 1.39, RMB 1.78, and RMB 2.43, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 53.6, 41.9, and 30.6 [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1][4]. Core Views - The oil transportation market showed weak supply and demand in Q3 2024, while the bulk shipping segment saw significant profit growth year-on-year. The company reported a revenue of RMB 19.296 billion for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.44%, but a net profit of RMB 3.369 billion, a decrease of 10.35% year-on-year. The net profits for the oil, bulk, container, and roll-on/roll-off businesses were RMB 2.060 billion, RMB 1.170 billion, RMB 0.472 billion, and RMB 0.249 billion, reflecting changes of -12.23%, +106.71%, -25.90%, and +14.75% respectively [4]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The company's stock price is currently at RMB 6.76, with a market capitalization of RMB 55.052 billion. The average trading volume over the past three months is RMB 423.65 million [1][3]. Business Segments - **Oil Transportation**: Revenue for the oil transportation business was RMB 6.982 billion, down 3.59% year-on-year, with a net profit of RMB 2.060 billion, down 12.23%. The average TCE for the TD3C route was USD 36,846 per day, up 4.24% year-on-year [4]. - **Bulk Shipping**: Revenue for the bulk shipping business was RMB 6.070 billion, up 17.86% year-on-year, with a net profit of RMB 1.170 billion, up 106.71%. The average BDI index was 1,845 points, up 57% year-on-year [4]. - **Container Shipping**: Revenue for the container shipping business was RMB 4.053 billion, up 0.17% year-on-year, with a net profit of RMB 0.472 billion, down 25.90% [4]. Financial Projections - The report adjusts the profit forecast for the company, projecting net profits of RMB 4.828 billion, RMB 6.180 billion, and RMB 7.458 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with growth rates of -0.2%, 28.0%, and 20.7%. The corresponding EPS is projected to be RMB 0.59, RMB 0.76, and RMB 0.92, with P/E ratios of 11.4, 8.9, and 7.4 respectively [4][5].

| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------|----------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 证券研究报告 \n11 月金股组合 | —— | 晨会聚焦 \n | | 2024 年 11 月 20 日 \n中银晨会聚焦 | | 股票代码 600383.SH | | 股票名称 金地集团 | | -20241120 | | | | 极兔速递 | | | | 1519.HK | | | -W | ■ 重点关注 | | 600309.SH | | 万华化学 | | | | 688019.S ...

Economic Data - In October, the industrial added value increased by 5.3% year-on-year, while retail sales of consumer goods grew by 4.8%[30] - Fixed asset investment rose by 3.4% year-on-year from January to October, with real estate development investment declining by 10.3%[30] - The urban surveyed unemployment rate in October was 5.0%, down by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[30] Market Performance - The CSI 300 index fell by 3.29% this week, while the CSI 300 stock index futures dropped by 2.94%[19] - Futures for coking coal and iron ore decreased by 5.26% and 4.78%, respectively[19] - The 7-day annualized yield of Yu'ebao fell by 2 basis points to 1.32%[19] Asset Allocation Recommendations - The recommended order for asset allocation is: Stocks > Commodities > Bonds > Currency[2] - The bond market is expected to be influenced by the "stock-bond seesaw" effect in the short term, with a standard allocation suggested[3] Risks - Global inflation is declining slowly, and there is a risk of a rapid economic downturn in Europe and the U.S.[2]

Revenue Insights - In October, public fiscal revenue reached CNY 21,922.0 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.5%, improving by 3.0 percentage points[1] - Tax revenue for the month was CNY 19,067.0 billion, with a positive year-on-year growth of 1.8%, an improvement of 6.8 percentage points from the previous month[1] - Non-tax revenue surged to CNY 2,855.0 billion, marking a significant year-on-year increase of 39.6%, with a 14.5 percentage point improvement from last month[1] Expenditure Trends - Public fiscal expenditure in October amounted to CNY 19,686.0 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.4%, with an improvement of 5.2 percentage points[1] - Local public fiscal expenditure reached CNY 15,930.0 billion, growing by 11.9% year-on-year, continuing the upward trend with a 6.6 percentage point improvement[1] - The share of public fiscal expenditure directed towards infrastructure increased to 22.9%, up by 1.7 percentage points from the previous month[12] Fund Budget Performance - The total government fund budget revenue for October was CNY 9,659.0 billion, showing a remarkable year-on-year increase of 47.9%, with a 13.7 percentage point improvement from last month[19] - Central government fund budget revenue was CNY 446.0 billion, a staggering year-on-year increase of 162.4%[19] - Local government fund budget revenue reached CNY 9,213.0 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 44.8%, continuing to expand by 9.2 percentage points[19] Land Revenue Impact - Revenue from land use rights in October was CNY 3,684.0 billion, with a year-on-year decline of 10.5%, but the decline rate has narrowed compared to previous months[16] - The overall government fund budget revenue for the first ten months was CNY 35,462.0 billion, down 19.0% year-on-year, but the decline rate has improved by 1.2 percentage points[16]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the retail sales data for October showed good growth, with total retail sales reaching 45,396 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.8% and a month-on-month increase of 1.6 percentage points [1] - The report attributes the positive performance to factors such as the pre-heating of "Double Eleven" sales and policies promoting the replacement of old goods with new ones, which have stimulated consumption [1] - The service industry PMI for October was reported at 50.1%, indicating a slight improvement in the service sector [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Domestic Macro Data - In October, total retail sales increased by 4.8% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 1.6 percentage points. Restaurant revenue grew by 3.2% year-on-year [1] - The total retail sales from January to October reached nearly 40 trillion, with a year-on-year growth of 3.5% [1] Support for Rating - The report notes that the retail sales of physical goods online increased by 8.3% year-on-year from January to October, with an acceleration of 0.4 percentage points compared to the previous months [1] - The report emphasizes that the policies promoting the replacement of old goods with new ones have positively impacted consumption, particularly in categories such as automobiles and home appliances [1] Employment and Consumer Confidence - The national urban survey unemployment rate in October was 5.0%, with a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [1] - The consumer confidence index for September was reported at 85.7, indicating that while consumer confidence is recovering, it remains at a low level with significant room for improvement [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1][2]. Core Views - The company is capitalizing on the trend of small parcel delivery, implementing cost reduction strategies to maintain profitability. The company's express delivery volume growth outpaces the industry average, and it is effectively lowering costs while enhancing profit margins [2][3]. - For Q3 2024, the company reported a revenue of 12.257 billion RMB, an increase of 8.84% year-on-year, and a net profit of 367 million RMB, up 24.25% year-on-year. The overall revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 35.509 billion RMB, reflecting an 8.14% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.408 billion RMB, a 20.93% increase year-on-year [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company achieved a total express delivery volume of 16.943 billion pieces in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 27.7%, surpassing the industry growth rate by 5.7 percentage points. In Q3 2024 alone, the volume was 6.019 billion pieces, up 23.72% year-on-year [2][3]. - The average revenue per piece for Q1-Q3 2024 was 2.10 RMB, down 15.32% year-on-year, indicating a successful strategy of price reduction to increase volume. The average cost per piece was 1.89 RMB, down 15.06% year-on-year, showcasing effective cost management [2][3]. Digitalization and Innovation - The company is enhancing its digital capabilities and actively exploring the low-altitude economy. It has implemented a comprehensive digital strategy to improve operational efficiency and service quality, including the introduction of new intelligent sorting equipment [2][3]. - The company is conducting pilot projects for drone deliveries in certain regions, aiming to shorten delivery times and improve service efficiency [2][3]. Valuation Adjustments - Due to a significant reduction in average revenue per piece, the company has adjusted its profit forecasts. The projected net profits for 2024-2026 are 2.075 billion RMB, 2.405 billion RMB, and 2.857 billion RMB, representing year-on-year growth rates of 27.7%, 15.9%, and 18.8% respectively. The corresponding EPS is expected to be 0.72 RMB, 0.83 RMB, and 0.99 RMB per share, with PE ratios of 11.3, 9.8, and 8.2 times [2][3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1][2] Core Views - The report indicates that the company's credit impairment has negatively impacted profitability, but there is an expectation for recovery as the commodity market stabilizes [2] - In Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of RMB 94.218 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 30.25%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 1.11 billion, down 61.80% year-on-year [2] - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenue of RMB 297.699 billion, a decline of 19.24%, and a net profit of RMB 8.90 billion, down 24.67% year-on-year [2] - The report emphasizes that weak procurement demand from downstream manufacturing clients and pressure on commodity prices have led to a decrease in the company's operating scale [2] - The report maintains a "Buy" rating based on the expectation that the company's performance will improve as the commodity market stabilizes and impairment risks are cleared [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of RMB 94.218 billion, a decrease of 30.25% year-on-year, and a net profit of RMB 1.11 billion, down 61.80% year-on-year [2] - For the first three quarters of 2024, revenue was RMB 297.699 billion, a decline of 19.24%, with a net profit of RMB 8.90 billion, down 24.67% year-on-year [2] - The report forecasts net profits for 2024-2026 to be RMB 1.218 billion, RMB 2.219 billion, and RMB 2.448 billion, reflecting a year-on-year change of -22.6%, +82.1%, and +10.3% respectively [2][3] Market Outlook - The report suggests that the company will continue to expand its advantages and optimize its business model, actively increasing its customer base [2] - It is anticipated that the overall economic fundamentals in China remain stable, and the commodity market is expected to gradually stabilize and recover [2] Valuation - The report adjusts the company's earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2024-2026 to RMB 0.54, RMB 0.98, and RMB 1.08, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 11.5, 6.3, and 5.7 [2][3]