Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1][4]. Core Views - The oil transportation market showed weak supply and demand in Q3 2024, while the bulk shipping segment saw significant profit growth year-on-year. The company reported a revenue of RMB 19.296 billion for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.44%, but a net profit of RMB 3.369 billion, a decrease of 10.35% year-on-year. The net profits for the oil, bulk, container, and roll-on/roll-off businesses were RMB 2.060 billion, RMB 1.170 billion, RMB 0.472 billion, and RMB 0.249 billion, reflecting changes of -12.23%, +106.71%, -25.90%, and +14.75% respectively [4]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The company's stock price is currently at RMB 6.76, with a market capitalization of RMB 55.052 billion. The average trading volume over the past three months is RMB 423.65 million [1][3]. Business Segments - **Oil Transportation**: Revenue for the oil transportation business was RMB 6.982 billion, down 3.59% year-on-year, with a net profit of RMB 2.060 billion, down 12.23%. The average TCE for the TD3C route was USD 36,846 per day, up 4.24% year-on-year [4]. - **Bulk Shipping**: Revenue for the bulk shipping business was RMB 6.070 billion, up 17.86% year-on-year, with a net profit of RMB 1.170 billion, up 106.71%. The average BDI index was 1,845 points, up 57% year-on-year [4]. - **Container Shipping**: Revenue for the container shipping business was RMB 4.053 billion, up 0.17% year-on-year, with a net profit of RMB 0.472 billion, down 25.90% [4]. Financial Projections - The report adjusts the profit forecast for the company, projecting net profits of RMB 4.828 billion, RMB 6.180 billion, and RMB 7.458 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with growth rates of -0.2%, 28.0%, and 20.7%. The corresponding EPS is projected to be RMB 0.59, RMB 0.76, and RMB 0.92, with P/E ratios of 11.4, 8.9, and 7.4 respectively [4][5].

| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------|----------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 证券研究报告 \n11 月金股组合 | —— | 晨会聚焦 \n | | 2024 年 11 月 20 日 \n中银晨会聚焦 | | 股票代码 600383.SH | | 股票名称 金地集团 | | -20241120 | | | | 极兔速递 | | | | 1519.HK | | | -W | ■ 重点关注 | | 600309.SH | | 万华化学 | | | | 688019.S ...

Economic Data - In October, the industrial added value increased by 5.3% year-on-year, while retail sales of consumer goods grew by 4.8%[30] - Fixed asset investment rose by 3.4% year-on-year from January to October, with real estate development investment declining by 10.3%[30] - The urban surveyed unemployment rate in October was 5.0%, down by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[30] Market Performance - The CSI 300 index fell by 3.29% this week, while the CSI 300 stock index futures dropped by 2.94%[19] - Futures for coking coal and iron ore decreased by 5.26% and 4.78%, respectively[19] - The 7-day annualized yield of Yu'ebao fell by 2 basis points to 1.32%[19] Asset Allocation Recommendations - The recommended order for asset allocation is: Stocks > Commodities > Bonds > Currency[2] - The bond market is expected to be influenced by the "stock-bond seesaw" effect in the short term, with a standard allocation suggested[3] Risks - Global inflation is declining slowly, and there is a risk of a rapid economic downturn in Europe and the U.S.[2]

Revenue Insights - In October, public fiscal revenue reached CNY 21,922.0 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.5%, improving by 3.0 percentage points[1] - Tax revenue for the month was CNY 19,067.0 billion, with a positive year-on-year growth of 1.8%, an improvement of 6.8 percentage points from the previous month[1] - Non-tax revenue surged to CNY 2,855.0 billion, marking a significant year-on-year increase of 39.6%, with a 14.5 percentage point improvement from last month[1] Expenditure Trends - Public fiscal expenditure in October amounted to CNY 19,686.0 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.4%, with an improvement of 5.2 percentage points[1] - Local public fiscal expenditure reached CNY 15,930.0 billion, growing by 11.9% year-on-year, continuing the upward trend with a 6.6 percentage point improvement[1] - The share of public fiscal expenditure directed towards infrastructure increased to 22.9%, up by 1.7 percentage points from the previous month[12] Fund Budget Performance - The total government fund budget revenue for October was CNY 9,659.0 billion, showing a remarkable year-on-year increase of 47.9%, with a 13.7 percentage point improvement from last month[19] - Central government fund budget revenue was CNY 446.0 billion, a staggering year-on-year increase of 162.4%[19] - Local government fund budget revenue reached CNY 9,213.0 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 44.8%, continuing to expand by 9.2 percentage points[19] Land Revenue Impact - Revenue from land use rights in October was CNY 3,684.0 billion, with a year-on-year decline of 10.5%, but the decline rate has narrowed compared to previous months[16] - The overall government fund budget revenue for the first ten months was CNY 35,462.0 billion, down 19.0% year-on-year, but the decline rate has improved by 1.2 percentage points[16]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the retail sales data for October showed good growth, with total retail sales reaching 45,396 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.8% and a month-on-month increase of 1.6 percentage points [1] - The report attributes the positive performance to factors such as the pre-heating of "Double Eleven" sales and policies promoting the replacement of old goods with new ones, which have stimulated consumption [1] - The service industry PMI for October was reported at 50.1%, indicating a slight improvement in the service sector [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Domestic Macro Data - In October, total retail sales increased by 4.8% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 1.6 percentage points. Restaurant revenue grew by 3.2% year-on-year [1] - The total retail sales from January to October reached nearly 40 trillion, with a year-on-year growth of 3.5% [1] Support for Rating - The report notes that the retail sales of physical goods online increased by 8.3% year-on-year from January to October, with an acceleration of 0.4 percentage points compared to the previous months [1] - The report emphasizes that the policies promoting the replacement of old goods with new ones have positively impacted consumption, particularly in categories such as automobiles and home appliances [1] Employment and Consumer Confidence - The national urban survey unemployment rate in October was 5.0%, with a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [1] - The consumer confidence index for September was reported at 85.7, indicating that while consumer confidence is recovering, it remains at a low level with significant room for improvement [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1][2]. Core Views - The company is capitalizing on the trend of small parcel delivery, implementing cost reduction strategies to maintain profitability. The company's express delivery volume growth outpaces the industry average, and it is effectively lowering costs while enhancing profit margins [2][3]. - For Q3 2024, the company reported a revenue of 12.257 billion RMB, an increase of 8.84% year-on-year, and a net profit of 367 million RMB, up 24.25% year-on-year. The overall revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 35.509 billion RMB, reflecting an 8.14% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.408 billion RMB, a 20.93% increase year-on-year [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company achieved a total express delivery volume of 16.943 billion pieces in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 27.7%, surpassing the industry growth rate by 5.7 percentage points. In Q3 2024 alone, the volume was 6.019 billion pieces, up 23.72% year-on-year [2][3]. - The average revenue per piece for Q1-Q3 2024 was 2.10 RMB, down 15.32% year-on-year, indicating a successful strategy of price reduction to increase volume. The average cost per piece was 1.89 RMB, down 15.06% year-on-year, showcasing effective cost management [2][3]. Digitalization and Innovation - The company is enhancing its digital capabilities and actively exploring the low-altitude economy. It has implemented a comprehensive digital strategy to improve operational efficiency and service quality, including the introduction of new intelligent sorting equipment [2][3]. - The company is conducting pilot projects for drone deliveries in certain regions, aiming to shorten delivery times and improve service efficiency [2][3]. Valuation Adjustments - Due to a significant reduction in average revenue per piece, the company has adjusted its profit forecasts. The projected net profits for 2024-2026 are 2.075 billion RMB, 2.405 billion RMB, and 2.857 billion RMB, representing year-on-year growth rates of 27.7%, 15.9%, and 18.8% respectively. The corresponding EPS is expected to be 0.72 RMB, 0.83 RMB, and 0.99 RMB per share, with PE ratios of 11.3, 9.8, and 8.2 times [2][3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1][2] Core Views - The report indicates that the company's credit impairment has negatively impacted profitability, but there is an expectation for recovery as the commodity market stabilizes [2] - In Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of RMB 94.218 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 30.25%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 1.11 billion, down 61.80% year-on-year [2] - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenue of RMB 297.699 billion, a decline of 19.24%, and a net profit of RMB 8.90 billion, down 24.67% year-on-year [2] - The report emphasizes that weak procurement demand from downstream manufacturing clients and pressure on commodity prices have led to a decrease in the company's operating scale [2] - The report maintains a "Buy" rating based on the expectation that the company's performance will improve as the commodity market stabilizes and impairment risks are cleared [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of RMB 94.218 billion, a decrease of 30.25% year-on-year, and a net profit of RMB 1.11 billion, down 61.80% year-on-year [2] - For the first three quarters of 2024, revenue was RMB 297.699 billion, a decline of 19.24%, with a net profit of RMB 8.90 billion, down 24.67% year-on-year [2] - The report forecasts net profits for 2024-2026 to be RMB 1.218 billion, RMB 2.219 billion, and RMB 2.448 billion, reflecting a year-on-year change of -22.6%, +82.1%, and +10.3% respectively [2][3] Market Outlook - The report suggests that the company will continue to expand its advantages and optimize its business model, actively increasing its customer base [2] - It is anticipated that the overall economic fundamentals in China remain stable, and the commodity market is expected to gradually stabilize and recover [2] Valuation - The report adjusts the company's earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2024-2026 to RMB 0.54, RMB 0.98, and RMB 1.08, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 11.5, 6.3, and 5.7 [2][3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook based on its semiconductor business advantages and new product development progress [2][7]. Core Insights - The company has experienced rapid growth in performance, with a significant increase in revenue and net profit driven by its semiconductor business, which has become a key revenue and profit growth driver [1][2]. - The semiconductor segment's revenue reached 1.086 billion RMB in the first three quarters of 2024, representing a 93% year-on-year increase, and its contribution to total revenue rose from 32% in 2023 to 45% in 2024 [1][6]. - The company achieved a record high monthly sales of over 30,000 polishing pads in September 2024, reflecting strong market penetration and product stability [1][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenue of 2.426 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 29.54%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 376 million RMB, up 113.51% [1][6]. - The gross margin for the first three quarters was 46.51%, an increase of 10.68 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 19.46%, up 7.76 percentage points [1][6]. Semiconductor Business - The semiconductor business, including materials and integrated circuit design, generated 1.086 billion RMB in revenue in the first three quarters, with a 93% year-on-year growth [1][6]. - The company has made significant advancements in its polishing pad products, achieving a sales revenue of 523 million RMB in the first three quarters, a 95% increase year-on-year [1][6]. Product Development - The company is actively expanding its product lines, including CMP polishing liquids and advanced packaging materials, with sales of CMP polishing liquids reaching 140 million RMB in the first three quarters, a 190% increase year-on-year [1][6]. - The company is also progressing in the development of semiconductor display materials, with sales of 282 million RMB in the first three quarters, reflecting a 168% year-on-year increase [1][6]. Valuation - The report projects net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 491 million RMB, 675 million RMB, and 877 million RMB respectively, with corresponding earnings per share of 0.52 RMB, 0.72 RMB, and 0.93 RMB [1][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the real estate sector, indicating a favorable investment environment due to ongoing policy support and market recovery signs [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that new housing transaction areas have shown a narrowing decline on a month-over-month basis, while year-over-year growth remains positive, reflecting the effectiveness of recent policies [1]. - The report notes that the government has demonstrated a willingness to stabilize the real estate market through tax adjustments, which are expected to stimulate demand, particularly in first-tier cities [1]. - The report emphasizes that the real estate market is showing signs of recovery, with improved sales performance expected in the coming months due to low base effects from the previous year and ongoing policy support [1]. Summary by Sections 1. Key City New Housing Market, Second-hand Housing Market, and Inventory Tracking - New housing transaction volume in 40 key cities was 26,000 units, a month-over-month decrease of 4.8% but a year-over-year increase of 5.3% [15]. - New housing transaction area was 2.993 million square meters, with a month-over-month decline of 3.9% and a year-over-year increase of 17.8% [15]. - Second-hand housing transaction area showed a month-over-month decline of 11.1% but a year-over-year increase of 8.4% [15]. 2. Land Market Tracking - The total area of land transactions in 100 cities was 8.112 million square meters, a month-over-month decrease of 66.9% and a year-over-year decrease of 34.2% [21]. - The total land transaction price was 33.16 billion yuan, a month-over-month decrease of 52.0% but a year-over-year increase of 87.2% [21]. - The average land price per square meter was 4,088 yuan, reflecting a month-over-month increase of 44.9% and a year-over-year increase of 184.7% [21]. 3. Policy Review - Recent tax policy adjustments include an increase in the area threshold for reduced deed tax rates from 90 square meters to 140 square meters, benefiting first-time buyers and those upgrading their homes [1]. - The report indicates that the government is committed to stabilizing the real estate market through fiscal measures, which are expected to enhance market liquidity and stimulate demand [1]. 4. Sector Performance Review - The absolute return of the real estate sector was -8.9%, a decrease of 15.7 percentage points from the previous week [12]. - The relative return was -5.6%, down 6.9 percentage points from the previous week [12]. - The sector's price-to-earnings ratio (PE) was 22.47X, a decrease of 1.90X from the previous week [12]. 5. Company Announcements - The report includes a summary of key company announcements within the real estate sector, reflecting ongoing developments and strategic adjustments by major players [12]. 6. Bond Issuance Status - The total bond issuance in the real estate sector was 5.67 billion yuan, a month-over-month decrease of 41.2% and a year-over-year decrease of 30.3% [12]. - The total repayment amount was 6.73 billion yuan, a month-over-month decrease of 55.1% and a year-over-year decrease of 26.8% [12]. - The net financing amount was -1.06 billion yuan, indicating a challenging financing environment for real estate companies [12].

Investment Rating - The report rates the transportation industry as "Outperform the Market" [3] Core Insights - The outcome of the US election may temporarily stimulate shipping exports, while the traditional off-season in December is expected to maintain growth in the shipping market [21][22] - The express delivery business experienced a record high during the Double Eleven shopping festival, with cross-border e-commerce facilitating global sales [31][33] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Hot Events - The US election results are anticipated to create short-term fluctuations in the shipping market, with potential structural changes in the long term. There is an expectation of strong shipping demand due to tax increase forecasts, leading to a surge in exports from the end of this year into early next year [21][22] - Multiple domestic and international airlines are adjusting their routes to China, indicating significant potential in the Chinese aviation market. The recovery of international passenger flights to 80% of 2019 levels suggests ongoing growth opportunities [23][24] - The Double Eleven shopping festival saw express delivery companies handle 701 million packages on November 11, marking a 9.7% year-on-year increase and reflecting robust online consumer demand [31][32] 2. Industry High-Frequency Data Tracking - Air freight prices have shown an upward trend from early to mid-November, with the Shanghai outbound air freight price index at 5494.00 points, a 12.6% year-on-year increase [35] - The shipping market is experiencing a mixed trend, with the SCFI index reporting a decrease while dry bulk freight rates are rising. The SCFI index was at 2251.90 points, down 3.42% week-on-week but up 118.58% year-on-year [42] - The express delivery market continues to expand, with a 24% year-on-year increase in October's delivery volume and a 14.53% increase in revenue [35] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the equipment and manufacturing export chain, recommending companies such as COSCO Shipping, China Merchants Energy Shipping, and Huamao Logistics [21] - It highlights investment opportunities in the low-altitude economy, recommending CITIC Offshore Helicopter [21] - The report also suggests looking into cruise and ferry investment opportunities, recommending Bohai Ferry and Strait Shipping [21] - For e-commerce and express delivery, it recommends Jitu Express and Yunda Express, while suggesting attention to Zhongtong Express and Shentong Express [21] - In the aviation sector, it recommends China National Aviation Holding, China Southern Airlines, Spring Airlines, and Huaxia Airlines [21]