| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------|-------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 证券研究报告 \n11 月金股组合 股票代码 | —— | 晨会聚焦 \n股票名称 | | 2024 年 11 月 7 日 \n中银晨会聚焦 -20241107 | | 600383.SH | | 金地集团 | | | | 1519.HK | | 极兔速递 -W | | | | | | 万华化学 | | ■ 重点关注 | | 600309.SH | | | | | | 688019.SH ...

食品饮料 | 证券研究报告 — 调整盈利预测 2024 年 11 月 6 日 603345.SH 买入 原评级：买入 市场价格:人民币 90.06 板块评级:强于大市 本报告要点 安井食品 2024 年 3 季报业绩点评 股价表现 (%) 今年 至今 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 (45%) (33%) (21%) (9%) 2% 14% Nov-23Dec-23Jan-24Feb-24Mar-24Apr-24May-24Jun-24Jul-24Aug-24Oct-24Nov-24 安井食品 上证综指 绝对 (12.9) (9.3) 13.7 (29.0) 相对上证综指 (27.1) (10.8) (4.4) (39.7) | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------|-----------| | | | | | | | 发行股数 ( 百万 ) | 293.29 | | 流通股 ( 百万 ) | 293.29 | | 总市值 ( 人民币 百万 ) | 26,414.08 | | 3 个月日均交易额 ( 人民币 百万 ) | 411.16 | ...

Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "Stronger than the Market" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [3] Core Viewpoints - The era of intelligent agents is approaching, and embodied intelligence is expected to become the best carrier for intelligent agents [3] - Simulation software is likely to be widely used in embodied intelligence training, with a focus on companies with flexible and fluid simulation technologies [3] - The commercialization paths for embodied intelligence include general-purpose robots, pure software solutions, and vertical domain hardware-software integration [3] Embodied Intelligence as the Best Carrier - Embodied intelligence consists of a physical body and an intelligent agent, enabling self-decision-making capabilities [14] - Small end-side devices cannot handle large model parameters, making embodied intelligence robots the best carriers for intelligent agents [16] - The parameter size of large models has grown significantly, with GPT-4 Turbo reaching 1.8 trillion parameters, and domestic models like SenseTime's "RIRIXIN" reaching 180 billion parameters [16] Simulation in Embodied Intelligence Training - Simulation software can provide low-cost, large-scale data for training embodied intelligence, solving the high cost and difficulty of collecting real-world data [3] - Flexible and fluid simulation technologies have higher technical barriers, giving companies with these capabilities a competitive edge [3] - Mainstream training methods for embodied intelligence include teleoperation, motion capture, and large models, with simulation data being cost-effective for large-scale skill acquisition [31] Commercialization Paths for Embodied Intelligence - **General-purpose robots**: This path requires high capital and technical investment, with industry giants like Tesla accelerating their布局 [3] - **Pure software path**: Focuses on designing universal operating systems, with companies like NVIDIA and Huawei's HarmonyOS ecosystem benefiting [3] - **Vertical domain hardware-software integration**: Companies can build data barriers in specific fields, with leaders in niche markets holding core advantages [3] Investment Recommendations - Companies with flexible and fluid simulation technologies, such as **Suochen Technology**, are recommended for investment [3] - Companies collaborating with NVIDIA and Huawei, such as **Ninebot**, **Zhongjian Technology**, **Gosuncn**, **Runhe Software**, and **Allied Vision**, are also recommended [3] - Leaders in specific vertical domains, such as **Hikvision Robotics**, are highlighted for their potential in the embodied intelligence market [3] CAE Market and Domestic Substitution - The CAE market in China is expected to grow from RMB 3.21 billion in 2021 to RMB 7.48 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 18.4% [40] - Domestic substitution demand for CAE software is estimated to exceed RMB 5 billion, with **Suochen Technology** well-positioned to benefit from this trend [68] - **Suochen Technology** has a strong presence in the military and aerospace sectors, with its CAE software covering fluid, structural, optical, and electromagnetic simulations [72]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [1] Core Views - The report highlights a significant improvement in the company's performance in the first three quarters of 2024, with revenue reaching RMB 5.65 billion, a year-on-year increase of 28.56%, and a net profit of RMB 832 million, up 91.87% year-on-year [3] - The acquisition of Suzhou Saichip is seen as a strategic move to enhance the company's analog product line, which is expected to drive future growth [3] - The adjustment of fundraising projects to focus on LPDDR5 and automotive MCU development is anticipated to strengthen the company's market position and diversify its product offerings [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of RMB 2.04 billion, a year-on-year increase of 42.83% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.97% [3] - The gross profit margin for Q3 2024 was 41.77%, up 5.41 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The company expects to achieve revenues of RMB 7.58 billion, RMB 9.20 billion, and RMB 10.83 billion for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding net profits of RMB 1.13 billion, RMB 1.69 billion, and RMB 2.08 billion [4][8] Strategic Initiatives - The company plans to acquire 70% of Suzhou Saichip for RMB 316 million, which will enhance its capabilities in battery management and protection ICs [3] - The fundraising adjustment includes a reduction in the investment for DRAM chip development from RMB 3.32 billion to RMB 2.82 billion, while allocating RMB 706 million for automotive electronic chip development [3] Market Position - The company is positioned to benefit from a recovery in demand in the consumer and networking markets, which is expected to drive sales growth in storage chips [3] - The report maintains a positive outlook on the company's ability to navigate market challenges and capitalize on growth opportunities through strategic acquisitions and product development [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **"Overweight"** rating for the company, with a target price of RMB 9.65 [1] - The sector rating is **"Outperform"** [1] Core Views - The company's profitability is recovering, with a **8.38% YoY growth in net profit** for the first three quarters of 2024 [3] - The company has a **rich project pipeline**, with total construction-in-progress reaching RMB 2.228 billion, a **44.34% increase** compared to the end of 2023 [3] - The company's **gross margin improved by 3.25 percentage points** to 21.99%, and the net margin increased by 1.81 percentage points to 20.33% in the first three quarters of 2024 [3] Financial Performance - The company reported **RMB 10.485 billion in revenue** for the first three quarters of 2024, a **1.22% YoY increase**, with net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 1.773 billion, up **8.38% YoY** [3] - In Q3 2024, the company's net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 585 million, a **16.60% YoY decrease** and an **11.66% QoQ decrease** [3] - The company's **EPS for 2024-2026 is forecasted to be RMB 1.08, 1.14, and 1.21**, respectively, with a P/E ratio of 8.9x, 8.4x, and 7.9x [3] Operational Highlights - The company's **power generation in Q3 2024 decreased by 3.51% YoY** to 6.464 billion kWh, mainly due to a **20.19% decline in coal-fired power generation** and a **1.34% decline in wind power generation** [3] - The company's **operating expenses ratio decreased by 0.45 percentage points** to 6.94% in the first three quarters of 2024, with financial expenses ratio dropping by 0.71 percentage points to 3.66% [3] Valuation and Forecast - The company's **2024-2026 revenue is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 3.1%**, reaching RMB 16.118 billion by 2026 [4] - The company's **EBITDA is expected to grow from RMB 4.867 billion in 2023 to RMB 6.421 billion in 2026**, with a CAGR of 9.7% [4] - The company's **net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 5.9%**, reaching RMB 3.233 billion by 2026 [4] Industry and Market Performance - The company's stock price has shown **strong performance over the past 12 months**, with a **22% increase**, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [1] - The company's **market capitalization is RMB 25.689 billion**, with a **3-month average daily trading volume of RMB 196.61 million** [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][3]. Core Views - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached RMB 25.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 26.22%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 3.35 billion, reflecting a growth of 1.04% year-on-year [3][5]. - The growth in the new energy vehicle (NEV) business is significant, with sales revenue of approximately RMB 10.4 billion, marking a year-on-year increase of about 96% [3][5]. - The general automation and smart elevator businesses faced revenue pressure, with declines in sales due to market conditions and reduced demand in the real estate sector [3][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a gross profit margin of 31.02%, down 4.76 percentage points year-on-year, and a net profit margin of 13.45%, down 3.18 percentage points year-on-year [3][5]. - The company’s operating expenses ratio decreased by 2.19 percentage points to 18.12% [3][5]. Revenue Breakdown - The NEV segment continues to grow rapidly, while the general automation and smart elevator segments are under pressure due to declining demand in related industries [3][5]. - The revenue from the general servo system and PLC&HMI segments was approximately RMB 4.3 billion and RMB 1 billion, respectively, both showing a year-on-year decline [3][5]. Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2024-2026 have been adjusted to RMB 1.85, RMB 2.26, and RMB 2.67, respectively, reflecting a downward revision compared to previous forecasts [3][4]. - The corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are projected at 32.8, 26.8, and 22.8 times for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 [4][6]. Market Position - The company is positioned in the automation equipment sector, with a market capitalization of approximately RMB 162.93 billion [2][3]. - The stock has underperformed relative to the Shenzhen Composite Index, with a year-to-date decline of 37% [1][2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1][4]. Core Views - The company reported a year-on-year revenue growth of 101.23% for the first three quarters of 2024, driven by rapid growth in its power grid and electric vehicle charging businesses [3]. - The company achieved a revenue of 10.49 billion RMB in the first three quarters of 2024, representing an 11.56% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 447 million RMB, up 101.23% [3][6]. - The report highlights improvements in profitability, with a gross margin increase of 1.69 percentage points to 20.52% and a net margin increase of 2.04 percentage points to 4.13% for the first three quarters of 2024 [3][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company’s revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was 10,490.09 million RMB, with a net profit of 446.51 million RMB, reflecting a 101.23% increase year-on-year [6]. - The gross profit margin for the same period was 20.52%, and the net profit margin was 4.13% [6]. Business Segments - The power grid segment benefited from stable procurement wins in national grid projects and rural grid upgrades, while the electric vehicle charging segment expanded its ecosystem with over 1,700 charging stations and more than 7,000 charging terminals established across nearly 30 cities by mid-2024 [3]. Earnings Forecast - The report adjusts the earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2024-2026 to 0.74, 1.08, and 1.30 RMB, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 30.8, 21.3, and 17.6 [4][9].

| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------|---------------------|----------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 证券研究报告 \n11 月金股组合 | —— | 晨会聚焦 \n | | 2024 年 11 月 6 日 | | 股票代码 | | 股票名称 金地集团 | | 中银晨会聚焦 -20241106 | | 600383.SH | | | | | | 1519.HK | | 极兔速递 | -W | ■ 重点关注 | | 600309.SH | | 万华化学 | | | | 688019.SH | | 安集科技 | ...

Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "Stronger than the Market" rating for the exoskeleton robot industry [1] Core Views - Exoskeleton robots are at a critical point of transitioning from technological maturity to rapid commercialization, with significant investment opportunities [1] - Compared to humanoid robots, exoskeleton robots have unique advantages, such as being more employment-friendly and suitable for China's labor-intensive industries [1] - The market size of exoskeleton robots is expected to match that of humanoid robots, with applications in medical, industrial, military, and consumer sectors [1] - AI-driven technological innovations are accelerating commercialization, with potential future integration of brain-computer interfaces [1] Market and Industry Analysis Exoskeleton Robots Entering Consumer Markets - Exoskeleton technology is expanding from vertical fields like healthcare to consumer markets, with products like the Mo/Go™ exoskeleton pants by Google and Arc'teryx targeting outdoor sports [1] - The introduction of consumer markets is expected to significantly boost industry performance and valuation [1] Advantages Over Humanoid Robots - Exoskeleton robots are more aligned with human interests, such as preserving jobs, enhancing user experience, and reducing ethical conflicts, making them more acceptable in industries like manufacturing [1] - They are particularly suitable for China's labor-intensive industries, as they enhance worker capabilities rather than replacing them [1] Market Size and Growth Potential - The global exoskeleton robot market is projected to grow from $3.92 billion in 2020 to $68 billion in 2030, with a CAGR of 33% [21] - In China, the market is expected to grow from 6.8 billion yuan in 2021 to 105.6 billion yuan in 2025, with a CAGR of 98.5% [21] - The market size and growth rate of exoskeleton robots are comparable to those of humanoid robots, with both expected to reach tens of billions of dollars [21] Key Application Scenarios - Medical: Exoskeleton robots are widely used in rehabilitation, elderly care, and disability assistance, with a growing market driven by aging populations and healthcare needs [21][24] - Industrial: They are used in manufacturing, construction, and logistics to enhance worker capabilities and reduce labor injuries [27] - Consumer: Products like the Mo/Go™ exoskeleton pants are targeting outdoor sports and fitness markets, with significant growth potential [29] Technological Advancements - AI and machine learning are driving innovations in exoskeleton robots, particularly in areas like motion control, intent recognition, and human-device interaction [38] - Brain-computer interface (BCI) technology is emerging as a key area for future development, enabling more precise control and interaction between humans and exoskeletons [39] Commercialization Progress - The price of exoskeleton robots has dropped to the thousand-yuan level, making them more accessible to consumers [33] - Online sales channels are becoming more widespread, further accelerating commercialization [33] Industry Chain and Key Players - The exoskeleton robot industry chain is relatively mature, with significant overlap in upstream components with humanoid robots [40] - Key players include Ekso Bionics, ReWalk Robotics, and domestic companies like Da Ai Robotics and Aushang Intelligence [42][44]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][3] Core Views - The company has actively reduced inventory and adjusted its delivery pace, leading to a significant decline in revenue for Q3 2024, with a year-on-year decrease of 44.8% [3][5] - The company is expected to recover its fundamentals after a deep adjustment period, with a projected revenue growth of -10.2%, +1.1%, and +6.9% for 2024-2026 [3][4] - The company plans to distribute cash dividends amounting to no less than 70% of the net profit attributable to shareholders for the years 2024-2026, with a dividend yield exceeding 5% [3][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 27.52 billion RMB, down 9.1% year-on-year, and a net profit of 8.58 billion RMB, down 15.9% year-on-year [3][5] - In Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of 4.64 billion RMB and a net profit of 631 million RMB, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 44.8% and 73.0% respectively [5][6] Revenue and Profitability - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 66.2%, a decrease of 8.6 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to product mix adjustments and increased promotional expenses [3][5] - The company’s operating cash flow for Q3 2024 was 1.41 billion RMB, down 65.3% year-on-year, indicating pressure on cash flow [3][5] Valuation Metrics - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 5.36 RMB, 5.48 RMB, and 5.88 RMB respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 15.4X, 15.1X, and 14.1X [4][6] - The company’s total market capitalization is approximately 129.78 billion RMB, with a circulating share count of 1,506.45 million [2][4]