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交通运输行业2024下半年展望:周期为矛,价值为盾
中银证券· 2024-08-27 14:03
Investment Rating - The report recommends the shipping sector with geopolitical risk premium and highlights the investment value of road, rail, and port assets due to declining expected returns [3][11][14]. Core Viewpoints - The current international situation remains unstable, with geopolitical risks persisting and domestic macroeconomic indicators needing improvement. The report suggests focusing on the shipping sector and safety assets with resource monopolies, such as roads, railways, and ports [3][11]. - The shipping market is expected to see a favorable supply-demand balance in the medium term, particularly in bulk and oil shipping, with the third quarter being a traditional peak season [3][14][28]. - The report emphasizes the stable cash flow and attractive dividends of road, rail, and port companies, which enhance their investment value amid declining expected returns [3][15][33]. Summary by Sections Investment Strategy - The report highlights the ongoing geopolitical risks and the need for investment in sectors that can provide risk premiums, particularly in shipping and infrastructure [11][14]. - Domestic macroeconomic indicators are under pressure, with manufacturing PMI remaining in contraction territory and consumer price index (CPI) growth at a low level [11][12]. Shipping - Bulk shipping is expected to have a favorable supply-demand balance, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.7% for global dry bulk shipping trade from 2023 to 2028 [3][24]. - Oil shipping is also anticipated to perform well, with a significant increase in the order book for oil tankers, indicating a positive outlook for the market [3][28]. Road, Rail, and Ports - Road transport shows steady growth in passenger and freight demand, with stable pricing and cash flow [3][33]. - Rail transport has seen a recovery in passenger numbers and stable freight volumes, indicating strong domestic travel demand [3][37]. - Port operations are experiencing growth in cargo throughput, with significant increases in foreign trade and container throughput [3][15]. Express Delivery - The Southeast Asian and emerging markets for express delivery are still in the early stages of development, presenting investment opportunities for companies looking to expand internationally [3][16]. - The report notes a high growth rate in cross-border e-commerce transactions in Southeast Asia, with a CAGR of 40.4% from 2018 to 2022 [3][16].
沪电股份:AI助力产品结构优化,盈利能力日益凸显
中银证券· 2024-08-27 08:57
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a market price of RMB 32.10 and a sector rating of "Outperform" [1]. Core Insights - The company has benefited from structural demand in PCB due to emerging computing scenarios such as AI and high-speed computing servers, leading to significant revenue and profit growth. The company reported a revenue of RMB 5.424 billion for the first half of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 44.13%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 1.141 billion, up 131.59% year-on-year [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first half of 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 36.46%, an increase of 6.84 percentage points year-on-year, and a net profit margin of 21.03%, up 7.94 percentage points year-on-year. In Q2 2024, revenue reached RMB 2.840 billion, a year-on-year increase of 49.83% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9.91% [2][3]. Market Segments - The enterprise communication market segment saw revenue of approximately RMB 3.828 billion in the first half of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 75.49%. The proportion of AI server and HPC-related PCB products in this segment rose from approximately 21.13% in 2023 to about 31.48% [2][3]. Automotive Sector - The automotive PCB segment generated approximately RMB 1.145 billion in revenue, a year-on-year increase of 3.94%. The company has improved its operational status significantly, reducing losses in its subsidiary, and is actively collaborating with well-known international component manufacturers and domestic new energy vehicle companies [2][3]. Future Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenues of RMB 11.537 billion, RMB 14.014 billion, and RMB 16.762 billion for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively. Corresponding net profits are projected to be RMB 2.464 billion, RMB 3.132 billion, and RMB 3.736 billion for the same years [2][3][6]. Valuation Metrics - The report estimates the company's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 24.9, 19.6, and 16.5, respectively, indicating a favorable valuation outlook as the company continues to deepen its focus on AI and HPC sectors [2][3][6].
社会服务行业双周报:“IP+文旅”消费热度高,暑运返程高峰已至
中银证券· 2024-08-27 07:45
社会服务 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2024 年 8 月 27 日 强于大市 社会服务行业双周报 "IP+文旅"消费热度高,暑运返程高峰已至 前两交易周(2024.08.12-2024.08.23)社会服务板块下跌 5.86%,在申万一级 31 个行业排名中位列第 27。社会服务板块跑输沪深 300 指数 5.73pct。《黑 神话:悟空》的上线为相关文旅产业带来新的热度,此外暑运进入尾声,民 航迎来返程客流高峰,我们维持行业强于大市评级。 市场回顾&行业动态数据 前两交易周社会服务板块下跌 5.86%,社会服务子板块及旅游零售 5 个板 块均表现为下降,涨跌幅由高到低分别为:专业服务(-4.95%)、酒店餐 饮(-5.17%)、旅游及景区(-5.89%)、旅游零售(-5.98%)、教育(-7.36%)。 北上资金方面,前两交易周北上资金减持首旅酒店 0.16pct 至 1.07%,减 持中青旅 0.10pct 至 0.50%,减持中国中免 0.02pct 至 4.15%,减持宋城演 艺 0.07pct 至 1.41%,减持锦江酒店 0.04pct 至 2.42%的持股比例。 据航班管家,8.12-8. ...
澜起科技:1H24经营业绩显著成长,AI新品加速上量
中银证券· 2024-08-27 07:38
电子 | 证券研究报告 — 业绩评论 2024 年 8 月 27 日 688008.SH 买入 原评级:买入 市场价格:人民币 53.10 板块评级:强于大市 股价表现 (13%) (3%) 6% 15% 25% 34% Aug-23Sep-23Nov-23Dec-23Jan-24Feb-24Mar-24Apr-24May-24Jun-24Jul-24Aug-24 澜起科技 上证综指 (%) 今年 至今 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 绝对 (7.8) (8.8) 6.7 10.6 相对上证综指 (4.2) (7.6) 14.3 17.4 | --- | |-----------| | 1,142.54 | | 1,142.54 | | 60,668.75 | | 1,031.59 | | | | 7.63 | | | 以 2024 年 8 月 26 日收市价为标准 相关研究报告 《澜起科技》20240708 《澜起科技》20240426 《澜起科技》20240403 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 电子:半导体 证券分析师:苏凌瑶 lingyao.su@bocichina.com 证券投 ...
鼎泰高科:受益PCB行业回暖刀具产品表现稳健,新业务不断突破实现快速增长
中银证券· 2024-08-27 07:15
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1][2]. Core Views - The company benefits from the recovery in the PCB industry, with stable performance in tool products and rapid growth in new businesses [2][4]. - In the first half of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 713 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 22.30%, while net profit attributable to the parent company was 89 million RMB, a decrease of 16.05% [2][4]. - The company is positioned as a global leader in PCB drilling needles, expected to benefit from the increasing penetration of high-end products such as micro-drills and coated drilling needles [2][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2024, the company reported revenue of 380 million RMB, up 23.96% year-on-year, and a net profit of 48 million RMB, up 28.20% year-on-year [5]. - The overall gross margin for the first half of 2024 was 34.66%, down 1.59 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 12.49%, down 5.67 percentage points year-on-year [4][5]. Business Segments - Traditional business in PCB tools benefited from industry recovery, with tool products and polishing materials achieving revenues of 541 million RMB and 70 million RMB, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 12.10% and 28.58% [2][4]. - New business segments, including functional film products and intelligent CNC equipment, saw significant growth, with revenues of 68 million RMB and 24 million RMB, respectively, marking year-on-year increases of 146.34% and 265.50% [2][4]. Future Outlook - The company has slightly adjusted its profit forecast, expecting revenues of 1.694 billion RMB, 2.087 billion RMB, and 2.501 billion RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [3][6]. - The expected net profit for the same years is projected to be 263 million RMB, 334 million RMB, and 412 million RMB, with corresponding EPS of 0.64 RMB, 0.81 RMB, and 1.01 RMB [3][6].
华鲁恒升:归母净利润持续增长,产品销量明显提升
中银证券· 2024-08-27 07:04
基础化工 | 证券研究报告 — 业绩评论 2024 年 8 月 27 日 600426.SH 买入 原评级:买入 市场价格:人民币 22.03 板块评级:强于大市 股价表现 (32%) (25%) (18%) (10%) (3%) 4% Aug-23Sep-23Nov-23Dec-23Jan-24Feb-24Mar-24Apr-24May-24Jun-24Jul-24Aug-24 华鲁恒升 上证综指 (%) 今年 至今 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 绝对 (19.7) (9.9) (24.1) (30.8) 相对上证综指 (16.1) (8.7) (16.5) (24.0) | --- | --- | |------------------------------------|-----------| | 发行股数 (百万) | 2,123.32 | | 流通股 (百万) | 2,115.41 | | 总市值 (人民币 百万) | 46,776.74 | | 个月日均交易额 (人民币 百万) | 301.69 | | 主要股东 | | | 山东华鲁恒升集团有限公司 | 32.06 | | 资料来源:公司公告 ...
房地产行业第34周周报:本周楼市成交同环比均改善;住建部提出试点建立房屋养老金公共账户
中银证券· 2024-08-27 05:08
房地产行业 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2024 年 8 月 27 日 相关研究报告 《房地产 2024 年 7 月统计局数据点评:传统淡季+政 策效果减弱,销售降幅扩大;开工与投资仍然低迷》 (2024/08/16) 《70 城新房二手房房价环比跌幅收窄,但环比下跌 城市数量增加——房地产行业 2024 年 7 月 70 个大 中城市房价数据点评》(2024/08/16) 《住房"以旧换新"——一个被低估的方向》 (2024/08/08) 《房地产行业 2024 年中期策略——下半年地产空 间在哪?》(2024/07/30) 《这轮地产政策能刺激多少需求?》(2024/05/21) 《为什么是 3000 亿?》(2024/05/21) 《这次地产不一样?》(2024/05/13) 《房地产行业 2024年度策略——行业寒冬尚在延续, 房企能否行稳致远?》(2024/01/03) 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 房地产行业 证券分析师:夏亦丰 (8621)20328348 yifeng.xia@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号:S1300521070005 证券分析 ...
中银证券:中银晨会聚焦-20240827
中银证券· 2024-08-27 03:51
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------|-------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 证券研究报告 \n8 月金股组合 股票代码 | —— 晨会聚焦 | \n股票名称 | | 2024 年 8 月 27 日 \n中银晨会聚焦 -20240827 | | 1519.HK | | 极兔速递 -W | | | | 002001.SZ | | 新和成 | | | | | | | | ■ 重点关注 | | 002409.SZ | | 雅克科技 | | | | 002340.SZ | | 格林美 佰 ...
东芯股份:1H24收入率先修复,“存算联”蓝图徐徐铺开
中银证券· 2024-08-27 03:41
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a previous rating of "Buy" as well [1][2]. Core Views - The company has shown steady revenue growth in the first half of 2024, achieving a revenue of 266 million RMB, which is an increase of 11.12% year-on-year. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders was a loss of 91 million RMB, which is a 21.32% increase in loss compared to the previous year [2][3]. - The company is focusing on its "storage, computing, and networking" integrated strategy, which is expected to provide significant long-term growth potential [2][3]. - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a cyclical recovery, with improving supply-demand dynamics in the storage chip market, benefiting the company [2][3]. Financial Summary - The company reported a revenue of 266 million RMB in H1 2024, with a gross margin of 13.39%, which is an increase of 0.65 percentage points year-on-year [2][3]. - The company’s R&D expenses in H1 2024 were 106 million RMB, accounting for 39.72% of its revenue, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 26.31% [2][3]. - The projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 719 million RMB, 994 million RMB, and 1.264 billion RMB respectively, with corresponding net profits of -31 million RMB, 163 million RMB, and 269 million RMB [3][5]. Market Performance - The company's stock price is currently at 17.26 RMB, with a market capitalization of approximately 7.633 billion RMB [1][2]. - The stock has underperformed relative to the Shanghai Composite Index, with a year-to-date performance of -40% compared to the index [1][2].