房地产行业 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2024 年 7 月 30 日 房地产行业第 30 周周报（7 月 20 日-7 月 26 日） 本周二手房成交同比继续正增长；LPR 下调 10BP，预计年内仍有进一步下调可能 本周新房成交面积环比增速由负转正,同比降幅扩大；二手房成交面积环比由正转负，同比 增速下滑；新房库存面积同环比均下降;去化周期环比下降，同比上升。 核心观点 新房成交面积环比增速回正，但同比降幅扩大，主要是因为核心城市政策放松后前期积累的需 求基本已经释放完毕，政策效果边际减弱，一、二线城市新房成交动能转弱、成交面积同比降 幅扩大。40个城市新房成交面积为205.1 万平方米，环比上升5.2%，同比下降27.6%，同比降 幅较上周扩大了 10.2 个百分点。一、二、三四线城市新房成交面积环比分别为-7.7%、4.4%、 24.0%，同比增速分别为-29.4%、-26.3%、-27.5%，一、二线城市同比降幅分别较上周扩大15.5、 11.3 个百分点，三四线城市同比降幅与上周持平。 本周二手房成交面积环比虽然小幅波动回落，但同比增速已经持续 4 周正增长，尤其是一线 城市连续 9 周二手房 ...

交通运输 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2024 年 7 月 29 日 强于大市 交通运输行业周报 全球集装箱船队运力持续增长，旅游出行市场 迎来奥运红利期 航运方面，全球集装箱船队运力持续增长，地缘政治累积效应促使油轮市场 保持高位。航空方面，欧洲机票预订量同比涨九成，旅游出行市场迎来奥运 红利期。快递物流方面，快递行业件量增长放缓，均价创下近期新低。 核心观点： ①全球集装箱船队运力持续增长，地缘政治累积效应促使油轮市场保持高位。 全球集装箱船队的运力显著增长，运力增速为近十五年最快纪录。根据 BIMCO 数据，2024 年上半年，船厂共计交付了 264 艘船舶，总运力高达 160 万标准 箱，这一数字比去年上半年所创下的纪录还要多出三分之二。由于货运量的强 劲增长以及经由好望角的船舶改道，仅有 36 艘总运力为 5.1 万标准箱的船舶被 回收。由于货运量的增长可能无法与船队的扩张同步，未来船舶回收量或将上 升，从而在一定程度上抑制船队的整体增长。此外，如果船舶最终能重新选择 红海和苏伊士运河作为航线，那么对船舶的需求可能会进一步下降。与集装箱 运力持续增长相反，油轮新船交付量较低，过去两年对俄制裁累积 ...

Key Insights - The report highlights a focus on several key stocks for July, including 招商轮船 (China Merchants Energy Shipping), 中国石油 (PetroChina), and 雅克科技 (Yake Technology) among others [1] - 宁德时代 (CATL) reported a net profit of 22.865 billion yuan for the first half of 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 10.37% [6][14] - The company has maintained a strong market position with a global market share of 37.5% in the first five months of 2024, an increase of 2.3 percentage points year-on-year [6] Company Performance - 宁德时代's revenue for the first half of 2024 was 166.767 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.88% year-on-year, while the net profit for Q2 2024 was 12.355 billion yuan, up 13.40% year-on-year and 17.56% quarter-on-quarter [6] - The company's power battery sales reached approximately 160 GWh, generating revenue of 112.649 billion yuan, despite a year-on-year decrease of 19.20% [6] - The gross margin for the power battery business improved to 26.90%, an increase of 6.55 percentage points year-on-year [6] Industry Trends - The demand for data center networks is expected to grow significantly due to the increasing application of AI, which drives the need for high bandwidth and low latency [9] - 盛科通信 (Sengke Communication) is positioned as a leading domestic company in commercial Ethernet switch chips, with expectations of turning losses into profits as the industry recovers [4][8] - The global data center switch market is projected to reach a sales scale of 20.88 billion USD in 2024, with the switch chip segment anticipated to see significant growth [9]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance over the next 6-12 months [12][56]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leading domestic supplier of commercial Ethernet switch chips, with high-end products rapidly catching up to international competitors. The growth in demand for Ethernet switch chips is driven by the expansion of data centers and the trend of domestic substitution in the industry [56][90]. - The company has a significant first-mover advantage in the domestic market, supported by high-quality clients that help it accurately grasp industry trends [3][56]. - The report highlights the increasing demand for high-bandwidth and low-latency solutions in data centers, driven by the rise of generative AI applications, which is expected to create substantial growth opportunities for Ethernet switch chips [90][85]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company is projected to achieve revenues of RMB 12.86 billion, RMB 18.32 billion, and RMB 22.06 billion for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with growth rates of 23.94%, 42.47%, and 20.43% [6][56]. - The gross profit margin is expected to improve from 27% in 2024 to 35% in 2026, reflecting the company's focus on high-end product lines [5][56]. Market Position - The company has established a competitive advantage by deeply engaging in high-end product lines, which enhances its product competitiveness [1][56]. - The Ethernet switch chip market is characterized by a high concentration of major players, with the company currently holding a smaller market share compared to global leaders like Broadcom and Marvell [8][28]. Product Development - The company is actively expanding its product offerings, with a focus on high-performance Ethernet switch chips that cater to various network environments, including enterprise, operator, and data center networks [56][102]. - The report notes that the company is in the process of trial production for its high-performance Arctic series products, aimed at ultra-large-scale data centers [56][90]. Client Concentration - The concentration of sales among the top five clients has significantly increased, rising from 56.66% in 2020 to 84.69% in 2023, indicating a growing reliance on a few key customers [33][56].

社会服务 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2024 年 7 月 29 日 强于大市 社会服务行业双周报 暑期出行需求旺盛，旅游市场呈"量涨价跌" 前两交易周（2024.07.15-2024.07.26）社会服务板块下跌 4.15%，在申万一级 31 个行业排名中位列第 23。社会服务板块跑输沪深 300 指数 2.34pct。暑假 旅游热仍在延续，同时受巴黎奥运会影响，近期国内游客赴法国旅游的订单 随之增长，在此基础下，文旅出行客群进一步扩张，旺季的到来有望利好旅 游、餐饮及酒店相关产业链，我们维持行业强于大市评级。 | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------| | 前两交易周社会服务板块下跌 4.15%，社会服务子板块及旅游零售 | | 块均表现为下跌，涨跌幅由高到低分别为：教育（-0.65%）、旅游零售 | | （-0.93%）、酒店餐饮（-4.37%）、专业服务（-5.00%）、旅游及景区（ | | 北上资金方面，前两交易周北上资金减持首旅酒店 0.12pct 至 1.13% | | 持中青旅 ...

Core Insights - The global economic recovery is underway, with the US likely to begin interest rate cuts in September 2024, while China's economy continues to show moderate recovery, expecting a GDP growth of 5% for the year [2][6] - The macroeconomic outlook for the second half of 2024 indicates a preference for asset allocation in the order of bonds > commodities > stocks > currency [2][6] - Industrial enterprises in China reported a total profit of 35,110.3 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.5%, with a notable increase in June [3][22] Macroeconomic Overview - The US is expected to initiate interest rate cuts in September, with the Eurozone showing signs of recovery and Japan continuing its monetary policy normalization [2][6] - China's external demand is supported by recovering markets in Europe and the US, while internal demand remains constrained by insufficient real estate and consumption [2][6] - The manufacturing sector continues to support industrial profitability, with a 5% year-on-year profit growth in the manufacturing industry [3][22] Industrial Performance - The mining sector's profits decreased by 10.8% year-on-year, but the decline has narrowed compared to earlier months, indicating potential recovery [3][22] - The raw materials processing industry contributed positively to industrial profits, with a 1.7 percentage point increase in profit growth, primarily driven by the non-ferrous metal processing sector [3][22] - The report highlights the importance of large-scale equipment updates and consumption upgrades to address internal demand shortfalls [8][20] Monetary Policy Insights - Recent monetary policy actions include a reduction in the 7-day reverse repurchase rate and a cut in the 1-year MLF rate, indicating a shift towards a more accommodative monetary stance [5][10] - The new round of deposit rate cuts by major state-owned banks aims to manage savings tendencies and support the banking sector's net interest margin recovery [10][24] - The report emphasizes the need to monitor deposit growth rates, as a further weakening in savings tendencies could impact long-term bond yields [23][24]

中 性：预计该行业指数在未来 6-12 个月内表现基本与基准指数持平； 弱于大市：预计该行业指数在未来 6-12 个月内表现弱于基准指数； 未有评级：因无法获取必要的资料或者其他原因，未能给出明确的投资评级。 香港花园道一号 中银大厦二十楼 电话:(852) 3988 6333 致电香港免费电话: 中国网通 10 省市客户请拨打：10800 8521065 中国电信 21 省市客户请拨打：10800 1521065 新加坡客户请拨打：800 852 3392 传真:(852) 2147 9513 中银国际证券股份有限公司 中国上海浦东 银城中路 200 号 中银大厦 39 楼 邮编 200121 电话: (8621) 6860 4866 传真: (8621) 5888 3554 | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

电力设备 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2024 年 7 月 28 日 强于大市 电力设备与新能源行业 7月 第 4 周周报 相关研究报告 《电力设备与新能源行业 7 月第 3 周周报》 20240721 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 电力设备 证券分析师：武佳雄 jiaxiong.wu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300523070001 证券分析师：李扬 yang.li@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300523080002 以旧换新政策加码，光伏协会强调加快行业整合 光伏方面，多晶硅硅料价格筑底，行业减产情绪进一步加强，供需关系逐步 缓和，我们预计率先完成产能出清，颗粒硅与块状硅维持 0.3-0.5 万元/吨， 看好颗粒硅市占率提升；组件部分厂商尝试抬价但实际成交价上涨仍需等待 需求大幅增长信号；逆变器需求持续向好；建议优先配置行业格局较优、成 本优势较为明显的行业细分环节。风电方面，Q2 业绩风险逐步落地，我们 预期 H2 国内海风项目招标及建设有望稳步推进，国外海风逐步放量，带动 零部件及整机环节的出海需求，建议优先配 ...

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食品饮料 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2024 年 7 月 29 日 强于大市 食品饮料行业周报 中报业绩期企业之间分化加大，关注龙头营销变革 上周食品饮料板块涨跌幅-6.3%，在各板块中排名第 30。贵州茅台顺利完成 上半年任务，行业调整期主动实施营销变革，向"新商务"转型。中报业绩 期渐进，企业之间分化加大，优选确定性高的企业。 市场回顾 上周食品饮料板块涨跌幅-6.3%，在各板块中排名第 30。子板块中，软饮料、其他酒 类涨跌幅排名靠前，分别为-2.2%、-2.3%，预加工食品、白酒涨跌幅排名靠后，分别 为-6.3%、-7.2%。截至 7 月 26 日，白酒板块估值（PE-TTM）为 19.1X，食品饮料板 块估值（PE-TTM）为 19.3X。 行业数据 根据今日酒价、百荣酒价及同花顺数据，7.19-7.26 整箱飞天批价 2595-2613 元，散瓶 飞天批价 2375-2403 元。普五批价 930-935 元，国窖 1573 批价为 875 元。 截至 7 月 19 日，国内生鲜乳价格为 3.23 元/公斤，环周-0.3%，同比-13.9%。 截至 7 月 26 日，全国生猪出栏价为 9.7 ...