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資料未源:万得,中叙证券 俄罗斯能源部发布声明表示,俄罗斯计划在今年10月、11月以及2025年3月至9月期间进一步削 减原油产量,以弥补超过 OPEC+配额的产量。 2024年7月28日 各品种货币基金收益率表现不一。本周余额宝 7天年化收益率下行 IBP,周五收于 1.42%;人民币 6个月理财产品预期年化收益率上行 2BP 收于 2.18%。本周万得货币基金指数上涨 0.03%,货币基金 7天年化收益率中位数周五收于 1.69%。 图表 21. 人民币兑主要货币汇率波动 (%) 4.00 3.00 2.00 0.94 1.11 1.00 063 0.26 0.06 0.00 -0.12 (1.00) : 77.55 (2.00) -2.03 (3.00) (4_00) 美元 日元 瑞郎 胶元 英镑 加元 澳元 韩元 卢布 林吉 day = 2024.7.22-7.26 资料来源:万得,中银证券 美国财长耶伦回应特朗普"强势美元损害出口竞争力"相关言论表示,包括美国在内的七国集团(G7) 致力于让市场决定汇率,只有在过度波动的情况下,才会与合作伙伴协商进行干预。 港股:公用事业是唯一上涨的板块 | --- ...

Economic Outlook - Global economic recovery is underway, with the U.S. likely to begin interest rate cuts in September 2024[1] - China's economy is expected to grow by 5% in 2024, with one more reserve requirement ratio cut anticipated in the second half of the year[1] - The Eurozone may see a maximum of two interest rate cuts within the year, while Japan continues its monetary policy normalization[1] Asset Allocation Strategy - The recommended asset ranking for the second half of 2024 is: Bonds > Commodities > Stocks > Currency[1] - The performance of major asset classes in the first half of 2024 showed U.S. stocks leading, followed by commodities, bonds, currency, and A-shares[100] - The marginal changes in liquidity are expected to significantly influence global asset prices in the second half of the year[100] Market Performance Insights - In the first half of 2024, the Nasdaq index rose by 18.13%, while the S&P 500 increased by 14.48%[109] - A-shares showed mixed results, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.25% and the ChiNext Index down by 10.99%[115] - Major commodities like oil, copper, and gold saw price increases exceeding 10% in the first half of 2024, while some commodities like soybeans and rebar experienced declines over 10%[110] Monetary Policy and Liquidity - The People's Bank of China is expected to maintain a neutral to loose liquidity stance, with potential new monetary policy tools being gradually introduced[1] - M0 growth remains strong at 11.7% year-on-year as of June 2024, while M1 has seen a significant decline, dropping to -5.0%[116] - The transition to a price-based monetary policy framework is underway, with a focus on short-term interest rates as the primary tool[92]

宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 - 点评报告 ■ 进一步货币宽松的标志。本轮降息属于二十届三中全会后货币政策的进 一步落地,呼应了本月22日7天期逆回购利率降息10bp,无论是从时点 还是幅度上都反映出了明确的宽松信号,基于以往逆周期调节政策当中 货币政策先行的规律,后续大概率还有其他部门政策跟进。 ■ 此次 MLF 降息有三处不同:一是按照惯例夹行每月 15日(遇到节假日 顺延)进行当月 MLF 到期续做,此次央行打破惯例月内进行了两次 MLF 操作,上次 MLF 操作是在 7月 15日,央行公告称开展了 1000亿元 MLF 操作,充分满足金融机构需求,月内两次操作体现出央行对于三季度流动 性环境的呵护; 二是本次 MLF 降息节奏与幅度均不同于 OMO 降息,节奏上滞后于 OMO I 降息与 LPR 报价调降,体现出演化 MLF 政策利率属性的目的:幅度上 MLF 降息 20bp,体现出在淡化 MLF 政策利率属性、与 LPR 逐渐脱钩之 后,MLF 利率调整空间相对更大,20bp 的调整也进一步缩小了 MLF 与 同期限同业存单的利差; 三是本次公告中区分了逆回购探作情况和 MLF 操作情况的差异,逆回购 ...

买入 原评级：买入 市场价格:人民币 57.30 板块评级:强于大市 相关研究报告 《芯碁微装》20240429 《芯碁微装》20240225 《芯碁微装》20231029 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 机械设备：专用设备 证券分析师：苏凌瑶 lingyao.su@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300522080003 2024Q2 归母净利润环比增速超市场预期，PCB 业务受技术升级和海外拓展需求强劲 688630.SH | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------|------------|----------| | | | | | 发行股数 ( 百万 ) | | 131.42 | | 流通股 ( 百万 ) | | 131.42 | | 总市值 ( 人民币 百万 ) | | 7,530.31 | | 3 个月日均交易额 ( 人民币 | 百万 ) | 103.23 | | 主要股东 | | | | 程卓 | | 27.99 | | 资料来源：公司公告， Wind | ，中银证券 | | jiakai ...

通信 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2024 年 7 月 24 日 强于大市 通信行业相对沪深 300 指数表现 资料来源:万得,中银证券 注:收盘价截止到 2024 年 7 月 19 日 通信行业周报(0722-0726) 板块回调幅度较深,静待花开 行情回顾: 24 年第 29 周(0715-0721)通信大板块和通信子板块均表现一般,通信运营 上涨了 2.16%;通信传输设备、通信配套服务和终端设备则均存在一定跌 幅,分别下跌了 4.60%、3.66%和 3.08%。 全周(0715-0721)建议关注标的组合阶段性表现一般,按照算术平均计算 组合周跌幅为 5.36%,跑输通信(申万)板块指数(-3.30%)、跑输创业 板指(2.49%)、上证指数(0.37%)和沪深 300 指数(1.92%)。 投资建议: 建议关注:卫星互联网(创意信息、上海瀚讯、华力创通),光模块(中 际旭创、新易盛、华工科技),5G(灿勤科技、硕贝德)。 风险提示: 中美贸易摩擦造成的不确定性因素增多,宏观经济环境承压,相关政策 落地不及预期。 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 通信 证券分析师:庄宇 yu. ...

电子 | 证券研究报告 — 业绩评论 2024 年 7 月 24 日 688123.SH 聚辰股份 买入 原评级：买入 市场价格:人民币 59.14 板块评级:强于大市 股价表现 (%) 今年 1 3 12 (37%) (24%) (11%) 1% 14% 27% Jul-23Aug-23Sep-23Oct-23Dec-23Jan-24Feb-24Mar-24Apr-24May-24Jun-24Jul-24 聚辰股份 上证综指 至今 个月 个月 个月 绝对 0.4 (6.5) 20.0 1.8 相对上证综指 2.0 (3.7) 23.5 9.8 | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------|------------|----------| | | | | | 发行股数 ( 百万 ) | | 158.70 | | 流通股 ( 百万 ) | | 158.70 | | 总市值 ( 人民币 百万 ) | | 9,385.47 | | 3 个月日均交易额 ( 人民币 | 百万 ) | 180.93 | | 主要股东 | | | | 上海天壕科技有限公司 | | ...

基础化工 | 证券研究报告 — 业绩评论 2024 年 7 月 24 日 002648.SZ 买入 原评级:买入 市场价格:人民币 17.64 板块评级:强于大市 股价表现 (20%) 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Feb-21Mar-21Apr-21May-21Jun-21Jul-21Aug-21Sep-21Oct-21Nov-21Dec-21Jan-22 xx股票 xx指数 (%) 今年 至今 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 绝对 17.8 (2.8) (8.9) 11.6 相对深圳成指 23.4 (0.6) (4.9) 29.6 | --- | |-----------| | 3,368.65 | | 3,366.39 | | 59,422.91 | | 347.74 | | | | 34.6 | | | 以 2014 年 7 月 22 日收市价为标准 相关研究报告 《卫星化学》20240408 《卫星化学》20230723 《卫星化学》20230504 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 基础化工:化学原料 证券分析师:余嫄嫄 (8621)20328550 yuany ...

Macroeconomic Overview - In June, the national general public budget expenditure reached 28,212.0 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 3.0%, with a decrease of 5.5 percentage points compared to the previous month [1] - Local public finance expenditure amounted to 24,374.0 billion yuan, down 4.4% year-on-year, with a decrease of 5.7 percentage points from the previous month [1] - The public finance budget revenue showed weak performance, with June public finance revenue at 19,001.0 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.6%, narrowing the decline by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month [3] Government Fund Expenditure - Government fund expenditure in June was 7,895.0 billion yuan, down 11.1% year-on-year, with a narrowing decline of 3.1 percentage points from the previous month [4] - Central government fund expenditure was 26.8 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 8.9%, significantly improving by 14.7 percentage points compared to the previous month [4] - Local government fund budget expenditure was 7,627.0 billion yuan, down 11.7% year-on-year, with a narrowing decline of 2.8 percentage points [4] Electronic Industry Insights - The maturity of edge AI applications is expected to lead to a wave of upgrades in AI smartphones and AI PCs, driving hardware upgrades in SoC/CPU, storage, sensors, cooling, and batteries [6][7] - IDC forecasts that AI smartphone sales in China will grow from 0.10 million units in 2023 to 1.50 million units by 2027, while AI PC shipments are expected to increase from approximately 0.03 million units to about 0.43 million units in the same period [7] - The demand for advanced packaging is anticipated to rise due to the expansion of domestic HBM projects, with the global advanced packaging market projected to grow from 4.3 billion USD to 28 billion USD from 2023 to 2029 [24] Pharmaceutical Industry Outlook - The pharmaceutical sector is expected to experience a "low first, high later" trend in 2024, with performance anticipated to gradually accelerate in the second half of the year [9][10] - The implementation of centralized procurement has led many pharmaceutical products to enter a price stabilization window, with stable growth expected in the pharmaceutical industry due to ongoing demand [10][11] - The market's demand for innovative products remains strong, suggesting that opportunities in innovative drug and medical device development should be closely monitored [9][27]

Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "Stronger than Market" rating for the electronics industry [1] Core Views - Edge AI applications are expected to drive a replacement cycle for AI smartphones and AI PCs, leading to hardware upgrades in SoC/CPU, memory, sensors, cooling, and batteries [2] - AI-powered AR glasses and AIoT products are emerging as innovative hotspots in consumer electronics [2] - The global HBM market is facing supply shortages, with domestic manufacturers entering the field, potentially boosting demand for advanced packaging [2] Edge AI and Hardware Upgrades - Edge AI applications are expected to drive a replacement cycle for AI smartphones and AI PCs, with IDC predicting China's AI smartphone sales to grow from 10 million units in 2023 to 150 million units by 2027, and AI PC shipments to increase from 3 million units in 2023 to 43 million units by 2027 [2] - AI smartphones require NPUs with at least 30Tops of computing power, while AI PCs need NPUs with at least 40Tops [2] - Edge AI is driving upgrades in microphones (higher signal-to-noise ratio), CIS (higher resolution), and PCB (higher frequency and speed) [2] AIoT and AR Glasses - AI-powered AR glasses, such as those from Meta and Google, are gaining traction, offering features like music playback, video recording, and live streaming [2] - AR glasses are seen as an ideal form factor for edge AI models due to their first-person perspective and real-time responsiveness [2] HBM and Advanced Packaging - The global advanced packaging market is expected to grow from $4.3 billion in 2023 to $28 billion by 2029, with HBM being a key driver [2] - Domestic manufacturers like Wuhan Xinxin and ChangXin Memory are investing in HBM projects, which could boost demand for advanced packaging [2] Investment Recommendations - Focus on companies involved in AI edge chip localization, such as Haiguang Information, Loongson Technology, and Cambricon [3] - Pay attention to companies in AI edge storage upgrades, such as Montage Technology, GigaDevice, and Puya Semiconductor [3] - Consider companies in AI edge acoustic upgrades, such as Goertek, AAC Technologies, and MEMSensing [3] MEMSensing (688286 SH) - MEMSensing is a leading MEMS platform company in China, with products covering MEMS acoustic sensors, pressure sensors, and inertial sensors [51] - The company is benefiting from the edge AI trend, with its MEMS microphones expected to see increased ASP due to upgrades in AI smartphones [51] - MEMSensing is also expanding into the e-cigarette and humanoid robot markets, with its MEMS pressure sensors seeing rapid growth due to increased adoption of MEMS microphones in e-cigarettes [51]