证券分析师：朱启兵 (8610)66229359 Qibing.Zhu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300516090001 宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量周报 2024 年 5 月 19 日 宏观和大类资产配置周报 稳内需从稳地产入手 大类资产配置顺序：股票>大宗>债券>货币。 宏观要闻回顾 ◼ 经济数据：4 月，规模以上工增同比 6.7%，社零同比 2.3%，1-4 月固投累 计同比 4.2%。 ◼ 要闻：财政部公布 2024 年一般国债、超长期特别国债发行有关安排；国 家发改委党组在《求是》杂志撰文，明确未来推动落实经济体制改革的七 大重点任务；证监会发布《证券市场程序化交易管理规定（试行）》；美 国宣布在原有对华 301 关税基础上，进一步提高对自华进口的电动汽车、 锂电池、光伏电池等产品的加征关税；全国切实做好保交房工作视频会议 在京召开；央行打出优化住房金融政策组合拳。 资产表现回顾 ◼ 人民币资产价格涨跌互现。本周沪深 300 指数上涨 0.32%，沪深 300 股指 期货下跌 0.23%；焦煤期货本周下跌 1.62%，铁矿石主力合约本周上涨 2.08%；人民 ...

1-4 月财政数据点评 公共财政支出有待进一步发力。后续财政支出有望迎来资金、项目双向支持。 相关研究报告 《4 月外汇市场分析报告》20240520 《楼市政策推进、债市利率震荡》20240519 《宏观和大类资产配置周报》20240519 证券分析师：朱启兵 (8610)66229359 Qibing.Zhu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300516090001 公共财政预算收入不及预期 资料来源：wind，中银证券 资料来源：wind，中银证券 其他权重税种方面，4 月企业所得税在当月税收收入中占比实现 34.4%，同比增长 0.7%，对当月税 收同比增速的正贡献为 0.2 个百分点，4 月为企业所得税征收的季节性高点。 房地产相关税种改善基础不牢固。4 月契税、房产税表现趋异，同比增速分别实现-9.6%和 16.8%。 当前商品房销售表现仍较弱势，4 月商品房销售面积同比下降 14.4%，地产行业"弱预期"仍对行业 销售有所影响，地产相关税种改善趋势仍待观察。 2024 年 1-4 月，全国一般公共预算支出 89483.0 亿元，同比增长 3.5%，增幅（较一季度，下同） ...

电力设备 | 证券研究报告 — 行业点评 2024年5月23日 强于大市 光伏行业动态点评 供给侧限制政策或出台，行业有望加速触底 工信部指导光伏行业高质量发展，或将出台新版《光伏制造业规范条件》提 高行业准入、运行门槛，并提升《规范》对于行业的影响力；维持行业强于 大市评级。 支撑评级的要点  工信部有望加强产业规划指导，逐步淘汰光伏落后产能：2024年5月17 日，中国光伏行业协会在工信部电子信息司指导下组织召开光伏行业高 质量发展座谈会。会议指出，我国将加强对于低于成本价格销售恶性竞 争的打击力度；鼓励行业兼并重组，畅通市场退出机制。  新版《光伏制造业规范条件》或将提高行业准入、运行门槛：根据中国光 伏行业协会披露，2023 年以来协会积极支撑主管部委司局工作，协助修订 《光伏制造业规范条件》，较大幅度提高了产品相关技术指标。我们认为， 新版《光伏制造业规范条件》或将在：1）多晶硅还原电耗、综合电耗；2） 光伏电池平均转换效率；3）光伏组件平均转换效率等方面进一步提高行业 新建项目、行业在产项目运行标准，促进光伏行业高质量发展。  《光伏制造业规范条件》关注重点集中在产品品质、生产能耗等方面：上 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, indicating an expectation that the company's stock price will exceed the benchmark index by more than 20% within the next 6-12 months [42][46]. Core Insights - The report highlights the high barriers to entry in the polyethylene glycol (PEG) modification technology sector, with few companies globally possessing advanced synthesis and modification capabilities [1]. - The domestic PEG industry is still in its early stages compared to international counterparts, with ongoing exploration and development [2]. - The global PEG-modified drug market has reached a certain scale, while the domestic market is just beginning to develop [7]. - The report notes a significant increase in the number of companies engaged in PEG-modified drug research and clinical trials in China, with approximately 45+ companies reported as of December 31, 2023 [11]. - The report discusses the broad prospects for PEG-modified drugs in light of the ongoing national procurement policies, which have led to substantial price reductions in generic drugs [12]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The report provides a detailed overview of several companies involved in PEG technology, including Xiamen Sinobang Biological Technology Co., Ltd., Jiaxing Bomei Biotechnology Co., Ltd., and Beijing Kaizheng United Pharmaceutical Technology Co., Ltd., highlighting their focus areas and product offerings [5]. Market Dynamics - The report outlines the competitive landscape of the long-acting drug market, emphasizing the limited number of approved long-acting G-CSF products in China, which presents opportunities for growth [54][55]. - It also discusses the increasing sales of overseas medical device products, with a reported growth of 21.48% year-on-year in 2023 [33]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of CNY 368 million, CNY 459 million, and CNY 559 million from 2024 to 2026, respectively, with net profits expected to reach CNY 142 million, CNY 178 million, and CNY 220 million in the same period [42][72]. - The report anticipates a gradual improvement in the company's performance, driven by the launch of new products by downstream clients [42]. Product Development - The report highlights the successful clinical trial progress of the PEG-modified irinotecan and the development of new medical aesthetic products, indicating a promising future for the company's product pipeline [34][39]. - It also mentions the company's proprietary PEG cross-linked sodium hyaluronate gel project, which has received regulatory acceptance and is advancing through clinical trials [39][68].

房地产行业 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2024年5月22日 强大于市 房地产行业第 20 周周报（5 月 11 日-5 月 17 日） 本周成交环比维持正增长、同比降幅收窄；四部 相关研究报告 门供需大招带动板块上涨 《为什么是3000亿？》（2024/05/21） 《这轮地产政策能刺激多少需求？》（2024/05/21） 新房成交面积环比增幅扩大，同比降幅收窄；二手房成交面积环比增速下滑，同比降幅收窄；土地市场环比量升价跌， 溢价率同环比均下降。 《这次地产不一样？》（2024/05/13） 核心观点 《房地产行业2024年4月70个大中城市房价数据点  新房成交面积环比增幅扩大，同比降幅收窄。40个城市新房成交面积为286.3万平方米，环比上升36.3%，同 评：70城房价环比创下九年多来最大跌幅；刚需产品 比下降26.1%，同比降幅较上周收窄了22.9个百分点。一、二、三四线城市新房成交面积环比增速分别为33.1%、 44.1%、23.2%，同比增速分别为-26.5%、-26.9%、-23.3%，同比降幅较上周分别收窄了22.6、22.4、24.9个百分 房价下行压力较大》（2024/05/19 ...

交通运输 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2024年5月21日 交通运输行业周报 强于大市 石油产量增长油轮收益或持续可观，快递行业 前四个月增长势头良好 航运方面，石油产量增长推高运价，油轮收益或持续可观。快递方面，快递 行业 1-4 月业务量增长势头良好，业务收入持续稳健增长。航空方面，全球 航空运输市场增势渐稳，3月航空货运客运需求齐增。 ◼ 核心观点： ①石油产量增长推高运价，油轮收益或持续可观。炼油厂产量增加或将 推动成品油轮运价上涨。根据国际能源署（IEA）的预测，到七月份， 全球炼油厂的日产量每月可能会增加 100 万桶。克拉克森数据显示，成 品油运价在近几周有所回升，预计将持续增长。LR2 型油轮船队加权平 均运价达到56,700美元/天，较上周上涨14.5%，较上个月增长约40%。 全球经济增长预期提高石油需求向好，油轮回报或持续可观。国际货币 基金组织提高了对全球经济增长的预期，支持主要机构对石油需求的积 极预测。多家船公司预计在石油需求增长、运输距离延长以及快速老龄 化，以及新造船订单应非常有限的支持下 VLCC 市场的回报期将持续。 需求高企推动新造船市场火热，当前油轮订单在全球船队中 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Outperform" [1][11]. Core Insights - The government has proposed specific measures to purchase existing residential properties and activate existing land, establishing a 300 billion yuan loan for affordable housing [1]. - The report highlights that the government's acquisition of existing properties is expected to alleviate inventory pressure and improve liquidity for real estate companies [1][6]. - The report anticipates that the current policies will stimulate demand and mitigate risks on the supply side, leading to a balanced market in the near future [1][6]. Summary by Sections Policy Measures - The government aims to purchase existing residential properties to convert them into affordable housing, with a focus on properties that are completed but unsold [1]. - A 300 billion yuan loan has been established by the central bank to support this initiative, with a 1.75% interest rate and a one-year term [1][6]. Market Inventory - As of April 2024, the total inventory of residential properties in China is approximately 2 billion square meters, with a significant portion being unsold completed properties [3][6]. - The report estimates that the current unsold inventory of completed residential properties is about 391 million square meters, with a decommissioning cycle of 23.8 months [1][6]. Financial Implications - The report calculates that to fully address the inventory issue, approximately 14.89 trillion yuan would be needed to purchase all existing properties [6]. - It suggests that if the decommissioning cycle can be reduced to 18 months, the required funds would be around 6 trillion yuan [6]. Investment Opportunities - The report identifies three main investment lines: local state-owned enterprises benefiting from government purchases, real estate companies with solid fundamentals and no liquidity risks, and real estate brokerage firms benefiting from a recovery in second-hand housing transactions [1][6].

电子 | 证券研究报告 — 公司深度 2024 年 5 月 21 日 买入 原评级：未有评级 市场价格:人民币 53.53 板块评级:强于大市 | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------|------------|----------| | | | | | 发行股数 ( 百万 ) | | 158.70 | | 流通股 ( 百万 ) | | 158.70 | | 总市值 ( 人民币 百万 ) | | 8,495.17 | | 3 个月日均交易额 ( 人民币 | 百万 ) | 215.51 | | 主要股东 | | | | 上海天壕科技有限公司 | | 21.13 | | 资料来源：公司公告， Wind | ，中银证券 | | 联系人：李圣宣 shengxuan.li@bocichina.com 一般证券业务证书编号：S1300123050020 DDR5 加速渗透驱动 SPD 持续放量，NOR 新品 推出助力产品线持续深化 评级面临的主要风险 存储市场复苏进度不及预期、DDR5 渗透率不及预期、新产品开拓不及预期、行 业竞争加剧。 资料来源：公司公告 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The report gives the electronics industry a "Stronger than Market" rating [1] Core Views - The digital chip design industry shows initial signs of recovery, while the analog chip design industry's profitability still needs further repair [2][3] - The SoC industry is performing well, with leading companies focusing on the edge AI market [3] - Overseas analog leaders like Texas Instruments and Analog Devices are seeing declining performance, while some domestic analog companies are showing signs of improvement [3] Digital Chip Design Industry - The digital chip design industry shows initial recovery signals with a 32% YoY increase in Q1 2024 revenue to 30.5 billion CNY [8] - Net profit attributable to the parent company surged 223% YoY to 2.49 billion CNY in Q1 2024 [9] - Gross margin improved to 33.9% in Q1 2024, up 1.4 percentage points QoQ and 0.5 percentage points YoY [10] Analog Chip Design Industry - The analog chip design industry saw a 34% YoY increase in Q1 2024 revenue to 10.1 billion CNY, but net profit remained negative at -110 million CNY [11][12] - Gross margin improved to 35.6% in Q1 2024, up 1.5 percentage points QoQ, but down 2.6 percentage points YoY [13] SoC Industry - Global smartphone sales reached 287 million units in Q1 2024, up 8.9% YoY, driving recovery in the smartphone SoC market [18] - Qualcomm's Q1 2024 revenue reached 9.39 billion USD, with a 56.3% gross margin [15] - MediaTek's Q1 2024 revenue increased 40% YoY to 133.5 billion TWD, with a 52.4% gross margin [20] Overseas Analog Leaders - Texas Instruments' Q1 2024 revenue declined 16% YoY to 3.66 billion USD, with a 57.2% gross margin [29] - Analog Devices' Q1 2024 revenue declined 23% YoY to 2.51 billion USD, with a 58.7% gross margin [32] Domestic Analog Companies - Awinic's Q1 2024 revenue surged 102% YoY to 780 million CNY, with inventory decreasing 22% YoY [35] - Silergy's Q1 2024 revenue declined 35% YoY to 200 million CNY, with inventory increasing 22% YoY [35] - Novosense's Q1 2024 revenue declined 23% YoY to 360 million CNY, with inventory increasing 15% YoY [35] Investment Recommendations - For the digital chip industry, focus on Rockchip, Allwinner, Amlogic, and BES [40] - For the analog chip industry, focus on SG Micro and Awinic [40]

银行 | 证券研究报告 — 行业点评 2024年5月21日 强于大市 银行股外资持股跟踪 地产政策频出，外资增持银行 上周五中午，央行发布通知决定，取消商品房利率下限，明日起下调公积 金利率 0.25%，首套首付比例降至 15%，国务院政策例行吹风会上央行副 行长陶玲宣布将设立 3000 亿保障性住房再贷款，支持地方国有企业以合理 价格收购已建成未出售商品房，以提振楼市。上周外资持股银行比例较前 周继续上升 0.04pct，截至周五持股市值比例 1.69%。42 家银行中，上周外 资增持前十分别为：张家港、紫金、贵阳、兰州、江苏、无锡、青农、瑞 丰、浦发、平安；上周外资减持前十分别为：常熟、齐鲁、上海、长沙、苏 州、邮储、成都、农行、中行、杭州。  外资持续增持银行股 上周，外资持股银行比例较前周上升 0.04pct，截至周五持股市值比例 1.69%。外资交易行业分化，在 30 个申万行业中，银行持股比例变化 幅度从高到低排名第 4，较上周上升 4名。上周 42 家银行中增持前十 分别为：张家港、紫金、贵阳、兰州、江苏、无锡、青农、瑞丰、浦 发、平安。  外资微幅减持大行 上周 6 家国有行中，交通银行被 ...