紧跟改革步伐 2024 年 07 月 22 日 作者 ——二十届三中全会《决定》全文点评 事件点评 ➢ 全会对民营经济的重视度提升 《决定》，在经济体制章节的第一条就表示"为非公有制经济发展营造良好 环境和提供更多机会的方针政策"，而十八届三中全会决定在第四条才涉 及。具体措施包括 "深入破除市场准入壁垒"、"支持有能力的民营企业牵 头承担国家重大技术攻关任务"、"完善民营企业融资支持政策制度"等。 《决定》中，描述了五点：（1）发展新质生产力体制机制：新兴产业方面， "推动技术革命性突破、生产要素创新性配置、产业深度转型升级"；传统 产业方面，"以国家标准提升引领传统产业优化升级"等；（2）促进实体经 济和数字经济深度融合制度："建立保持制造业合理比重投入机制"等。（3） 发展服务业体制机制："发展产业互联网平台，破除跨地区经营行政壁垒"； "健全加快生活性服务业多样化发展机制"等。（4）现代化基础设施建设 体制机制："深化综合交通运输体系改革"；"提高航运保险承保能力和全球 服务水平"等。（5） 提升产业链供应链韧性和安全水平制度："抓紧打造 自主可控的产业链供应链"；"建设国家战略腹地和关键产业备份"等 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the defense industry as "stronger than the market" with a focus on left-side allocation strategies [5][69]. Core Insights - The defense industry is experiencing a short-term demand gap, leading to a decline in profitability, although certain segments like aerospace engines show resilience [2][11]. - Future demand is expected to be driven by established goals and military needs, particularly in aircraft and missile sectors, with a long-term growth outlook [3][21]. - The transition from military to civilian applications presents significant market opportunities, especially in low-altitude economies and large aircraft manufacturing [4][44]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Demand and Profitability - The defense industry is currently in a weak demand phase, with profitability declining due to order gaps and revenue recognition issues [11][19]. - Aerospace engine sector shows stable growth, with a 5% revenue increase and a 20% net profit increase in Q1 2024 [14]. - Overall, the defense sector's revenue growth rates from 2021 to Q1 2024 are 18.88%, 13.81%, 7.71%, and -2.79% respectively [11]. 2. Future Demand Outlook - The delivery of new-generation fighter jets is expected to increase significantly, supported by domestic and foreign demand [21][22]. - The missile sector is seeing increased demand due to rapid consumption rates driven by military conflicts, enhancing the industry's bargaining power [3][29]. - The naval sector is anticipated to grow, focusing on deep-sea and unmanned equipment, with 2025 projected as a pivotal year for development [3][34]. 3. Military to Civilian Transition - The low-altitude economy is identified as a strategic emerging industry, with significant growth expected in 2024 [4][44]. - The C919 large aircraft has received substantial orders, indicating strong demand and production capacity growth [51][53]. - The commercial space sector is also set for rapid development, with multiple launches expected in the latter half of 2024 [56][58]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests prioritizing investments in the aerospace engine sector, which is expected to recover first post-demand restoration [5][69]. - For ammunition consumption products, while short-term demand is weak, long-term needs remain stable, making them a preferred choice for investment [71]. - Focus on state-owned enterprises with strong positioning in the "14th Five-Year Plan" sectors is recommended for long-term investment [72][74].

证券研究报告 重点推荐标的 2024 年 07 月 23 日 行 业 报 告│ 行 业 深 度 研 究 机械设备 泵业千亿规模迎头部集中趋势 投资看点 水泵属于被低估的千亿规模市场,行业估值处于底部区间，格局分散有望加 速集中。国内制造业回暖&万亿国债&设备以旧换新政策积极创造内需，海 外地产回暖&库存周期拐点有效拉动外需，双向利好泵业发展。 ➢ 市场空间：具有千亿市场规模的通用设备 2024 年全球水泵行业市场规模预计达到 4600 亿元，同比增速约 6%，其中 中国水泵市场空间约 2360 亿元。此外，中国是全球水泵最大的供应商，得 益于国内产品以出口为主&高性价比优势，2023 年中国水泵产量的全球占 比预计超过 30%。其中，中国水泵出口主要以欧美发达国家为主，其次是中 东、非洲、东南亚等新兴国家。 ➢ 内需：制造业回暖&政策加码节能泵更新替换 2024 年 3 月中国制造业 PMI 时隔 6 个月重返扩张区间，收于 50.8；4 月收 于 50.4，保持在扩张区间；5 月/6 月均收于 49.5，有所回落，主要系前期 高基数&当期需求不足影响。我们认为 5 月/6 月生产指数收于 50.8/50.6 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the home appliance industry [5] Core Insights - The home appliance sector's public fund heavy holding ratio increased to 4.52% in Q2 2024, up by 0.51 percentage points from the previous quarter, ranking 8th among CITIC's primary industries [2][8] - The white goods segment remains favored, with leading companies seeing increased holdings, particularly Midea Group, Haier Smart Home, and Gree Electric [3][10] - There was a significant outflow of northbound capital from the home appliance sector, totaling 9.889 billion yuan in Q2 2024, marking a record high for quarterly outflows [4][19] Summary by Sections Fund Holdings - The public fund heavy holding ratio for home appliances reached 4.52%, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.51 percentage points, placing it in the 64th percentile since 2010 [2][8] - The white goods segment accounted for 3.23% of the holdings, with a notable increase of 0.56 percentage points, while small appliances saw a rise of 0.16 percentage points [3][10] Market Performance - The CITIC home appliance index experienced a slight decline of 0.02% in Q2 2024, but it outperformed the CSI 300 index by 2.12 percentage points and the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.40 percentage points [2][8] Capital Flows - Northbound capital saw a net outflow of 9.889 billion yuan in Q2 2024, with significant monthly outflows recorded in April, May, and June [4][19] - Companies like Haier Smart Home and Bull Group attracted net inflows, while Midea Group faced substantial outflows [19] Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the "old-for-new" policy will strengthen, leading to sustained domestic demand for appliance upgrades, with emerging markets presenting significant growth potential [5][21] - Recommended stocks include leading white goods manufacturers such as Midea, Haier, and Gree, as well as notable players in the small appliance sector like Roborock and Ecovacs [5][21]

证券研究报告 行 业 报 告│ 行 业 点 评 研 究 非银金融 2024Q2 金融板块持仓点评: 保险和银行获增配,证券被减配 ➢ 非银、银行板块的基金重仓持股比例分别为 1.06%、2.70% 2024Q2 非银、银行板块的基金重仓持股比例分别环比+0.12pct、+0.37pct 至 1.06%、2.70%,处于 2015 年以来 5%、21%左右的分位水平。当前非银、 银行板块仍处于显著低配状态。板块走势上,2024Q2 申万非银指数、申万 银行指数分别累计-5.28%、+5.81%,相对沪深 300 指数的超额收益分别为- 3.13PCT、+7.95PCT。整体来看,2024Q2 银行板块的股价表现较强,绝对收 益和相对收益较好使得银行板块获得明显增配。 ➢ 证券板块遭减配,其余金融子板块普遍获增配 2024Q2 金融子板块的基金重仓持股比例依次为:城商行(0.92%)、国有行 (0.90%)、股份行(0.62%)、保险(0.48%)、多元金融(0.33%)、证券(0.25%)、 农商行(0.18%)。非银子板块表现分化,保险、多元金融、证券重仓比例较 2024Q1 分别+0.25pct、+0.05 ...

证券研究报告 2024 年 07 月 23 日 行 业 报 告│ 行 业 点 评 研 究 有色金属 2024Q2 有色金属行业基金持仓点评: 配置比例仍处高位,工业金属强势增配 ➢ 有色金属行业配置比例靠前,环比微降 2024Q2 公募基金有色金属行业配置比例为 5.33%,同比增加 2.07pct,环 比减少 0.04pct。从 2021-2024 年历史数据来看,有色金属行业配置比例 具有明显波动性,2023Q2 配置比例触底以后,开始进入反弹趋势,2023Q3- 2024Q2,配置比例分别为 3.44%、3.79%%、5.33%、5.29%。2024Q2,有色金 属行业配置比例在 31 个申万一级行业中排第 5 位,与 2024Q1 排名持平。 ➢ 工业金属增配明显,能源金属持续低迷 2024Q2,根据申万二级子行业统计,工业金属、小金属、贵金属、能源金 属、金属新材料行业配置比例分别为 3.36%、0.59%、0.92%、0.29%、0.12%, 分别环比变动+0.24pct、-0.12pct、+0.07pct、-0.25pct、+0.01%。从历史 数据来看,从 2022Q3 开始,基本金属和贵金属 ...

证券研究报告 2024 年 07 月 22 日 行 业 报 告│ 行 业 点 评 研 究 纺织服饰 2024Q2 纺织服饰板块基金持仓点评: 重仓比例环比微降,仍位于历史高位 ➢ 板块行情:纺服指数累计下跌 10%,跑输上证 2024Q2 期间,中信纺织服装指数累计下跌 9.6%,跑输上证指数 7.1 pct,跑输沪深 300 指数 7.4 pct;4 月中旬行业超跌明显,其后调整上 行,5 月中旬起回落。行业横向对比中,纺织服装指数 Q2 累计收益位于 中信一级 30 个行业中第 20 位。 ➢ 公募持仓:重仓比例环比微降,仍位于历史高位 2024Q2 末,纺织服装公募基金持仓比例 0.50%,环比微降 0.05 pct;本 季度板块持仓占比为 2022Q3 以来首次下调,位处 2019 年以来 91%分位水 平。板块低配 0.14%,环比下调 0.02 pct,位处 2019 年以来 96%分位。 行业横向对比中,2024Q2 纺织服装行业持仓比例位居各行业第 26 位,环 比位次下降 2 位,小幅减仓 0.05 pct;超配比例位居各行业第 16 位,环 比下降 2 位。 ➢ 重仓个股:新秀丽、伟星股份 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, marking the first coverage of the stock [7][10][13]. Core Views - The company is positioned to benefit from the rising demand for cross-border e-commerce, with a supply-demand imbalance in the air freight industry leading to increasing freight rates. The company has a competitive advantage due to its control over key transportation resources and ground service facilities [4][10][11]. Summary by Sections 1. Leading Domestic Air Logistics Service Provider - The company is the first professional air freight enterprise in China to complete mixed-ownership reform and go public, with a diverse shareholding structure [17]. - The company has shown consistent revenue growth, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.6% from 2018 to 2023 [21]. 2. Tightening Supply-Demand Dynamics, Industry Outlook - The air freight industry is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, with limited capacity from all-cargo aircraft and slow recovery in passenger aircraft bellyhold capacity. The demand for air logistics is driven by the surge in cross-border e-commerce [5][33]. - In 2023, China's cross-border e-commerce exports reached 1.8 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.6% [5]. 3. Sufficient Profitability Elasticity in Air Logistics, Stable Ground Service Revenue - The air express business is expected to benefit from rising air freight rates, with the average air freight price index at Pudong Airport in Q2 2024 showing a year-on-year increase of 23.0% [6]. - Ground service remains a stable revenue contributor, with the company maintaining over 50% market share at Shanghai Airport [6][25]. 4. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 252.4 billion yuan, 307.3 billion yuan, and 350.7 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 22.4%, 21.8%, and 14.1% [7][13]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 32.5 billion yuan, 36.9 billion yuan, and 41.2 billion yuan for the same years, with corresponding growth rates of 30.6%, 13.6%, and 11.5% [7][13].

2024 年 07 月 22 日 ——2024 年 7 月降息点评 事件点评 降息将从多渠道支撑总需求回升，包括：1）释放较为强烈的稳增长信号， 显示决策层稳增长的决心，有利于提振投资者和消费者风险偏好；2）推动 市场利率的下行，引导信贷扩张，起到宽信用的效果；3）LPR 的下调有望 降低存量房贷利率水平，缓解居民部门负债压力，提升居民消费能力；4） 对资产价格构成支撑，从财富效应和资产负债表效应的渠道提振消费，增 加信贷；5）利率下行可能也会推动人民币对一篮子货币贬值，提振出口。 证券研究报告 超预期降息的背后 7 月 22 日，央行宣布即日起公开市场 7 天期逆回购操作采用固定利率、数 量招标。同时，公开市场 7 天期逆回购操作利率由 1.8%调整为 1.7%，降息 时点早于市场预期。我们认为，全面降息是央行对当前经济基本面的及时 反应，也反映出国家实现全年经济增长目标的决心。此外，本次降息也体 现了央行货币政策操作框架的进一步市场化改革。从三中全会的部署来看， 我们预计财政政策及一些改革措施也有望较快落地，为经济增长保驾护航。 二季度我国 GDP 环比增速放缓（+0.7%，前值+1.5%），低于潜在产出 ...

证券研究报告 2024 年 07 月 20 日 行 业 报 告│ 行 业 周 报 电子 7 月周报(7.15—7.20) 折叠手机集中发布有望加速渗透 ➢ 三星、荣耀、小米相继发布新款折叠屏手机 折叠屏手机的选购者较多关注折叠屏手机的轻薄握感、硬件配置和软件功 能。其中,轻薄握感是用户最关注的因素,折叠屏手机的轻薄握感主要变 现为机身重量和厚度两个指标。2019 年至今,全球主要手机品牌折叠屏手 机厂商已发布多款折叠手机,性能不断升级迭代。2024 年 7 月,全球三大 手机厂商相继发布新款折叠手机,新款折叠手机在重量、厚度、性能有上 有较大改善,消费者评价较高,有望延续折叠屏高景气度。 ➢ 三星占据大部分全球市场份额,但份额有下滑趋势 根据 TrendForce 数据,2023 年三星折叠手机在全球市场份额约为 66%,预 计 2024 年份额下滑至 50%,下滑主要原因系中国折叠手机厂商竞争力逐步 增强。2024 年 7 月,荣耀新款折叠手机参数明显优于三星,且迭代升级明 显。荣耀新款折叠手机 Magic V3 重量为 226 克,相比三星 Fold6 轻 13 克; 折叠厚度为 9.2 毫米,相比三星 ...