证券研究报告 港股公司|公司点评|理想汽车-W（02015） 理想汽车 10 月交付数据点评： 交付能力升级，端到端加速推送 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2024年11月07日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 2024 年 11 月 1 日，理想汽车公布 2024 年 10 月交付数据。2024 年 10 月，理想汽车交付新车 51,443 辆，同比增长 27.3%。我们预计公司 2024-2026 年营业收入分别为 1473/2054/2800 亿 元，同比增速分别为 19.0%/39.4%/36.3%，归母净利润分别为 85.3/142.4/237.2 亿元，同比 增速分别为-27.1%/67.0%/66.6%，EPS 分别为 4.02/6.71/11.18 元/股，3 年 CAGR 为 40.6%。 公司产品力提升，智能电动加速，销量兑现和盈利能力兑现。维持"买入"评级。 |分析师及联系人 高登 SAC：S0590523110004 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 5 港股公司|公司点评 glzqdatemark2 2024年11月07日 理想汽车-W(02015) 理想汽 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate (Maintain)" [4] Core Views - The company's performance in the first three quarters of 2024 met expectations, with a revenue of 5.86 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.03%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.374 billion yuan, down 10.71% year-on-year [2][6] - The opening of the Shenzhen-Zhongshan Channel is expected to positively impact traffic flow and revenue generation for the company [6][7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 2.103 billion yuan, a decline of 6.39% year-on-year. The net profit for Q3 was 600 million yuan, down 1.55% year-on-year [2][6] - Excluding the impact of the deconsolidation of a subsidiary, Q3 toll revenue increased by 4.05% year-on-year [6] - The company’s toll revenue for Q3 was 1.379 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.61% year-on-year, but showed growth when adjusted for the subsidiary's impact [6] Business Segments - The organic waste treatment business saw a revenue increase of 23.69% year-on-year, contributing 182 million yuan in Q3 2024. The wind power generation business, however, experienced a revenue decline of 18.86% year-on-year, generating approximately 127 million yuan [6] - The Shenzhen Outer Ring Road Phase III construction is planned to be funded through a private placement of up to 4.7 billion yuan [7] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 9.012 billion yuan, 9.936 billion yuan, and 10.443 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of -3.05%, 10.25%, and 5.11% respectively. Net profit projections for the same period are 2.016 billion yuan, 2.260 billion yuan, and 2.367 billion yuan, with growth rates of -13.36%, 12.09%, and 4.73% respectively [7][8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4][6]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 170 million yuan in Q3 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 0.3%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 58.41 million yuan, up 5.7% year-on-year. The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 5.0 yuan per 10 shares [2][6]. - The revenue growth has slowed due to a seasonal downturn and consumer pressure, with contract liabilities growing at a reduced rate of 10% year-on-year. Despite a slight increase in expense ratios, government subsidies helped maintain profit margins [2][7]. - The company is focusing on a "key client strategy" to target high-consumption clients, which has led to service agreements with industry leaders [7]. - The company is continuously enhancing its product offerings, launching new courses to meet the urgent needs of entrepreneurs [7]. - The company expects revenue growth rates of 21%, 32%, and 24% for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with net profit growth rates of 25%, 30%, and 25% for the same years [7]. Financial Data Summary - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 75.4%, a slight decline of 4.2 percentage points year-on-year. The net profit margin was 34.1%, an increase of 1.8 percentage points year-on-year [7]. - The company forecasts total revenues of 813 million yuan for 2024, with a projected EBITDA of 337 million yuan and a net profit of 275 million yuan [8][10]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 2.30 yuan in 2024, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 15.5 [8][10].

证券研究报告 行业研究|行业专题研究|机械设备 光伏&锂电设备三季报总结：景气筑 底，静待盈利修复&新技术渗透 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2024年11月07日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 2024Q1-Q3 光伏设备行业盈利能力因主链价格腰斩而承压，但经营性现金流量环比改善明显， 当前光伏主链或已进入磨底阶段，禁止唯低价论&供给侧改革有望加速行业底部出清，带动主 链价格企稳回升。2024Q1-Q3 锂电设备行业业绩因国内需求疲软而大幅下滑，在欧美本土化政 策背景下，纯海外企业扩产增加&国内产能被迫出海，海外锂电需求有望维持高增长。 |分析师及联系人 SAC：S0590524040006 刘晓旭 蒙维洒 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 13 行业研究|行业专题研究 glzqdatemark2 2024年11月07日 机械设备 光伏&锂电设备三季报总结：景气筑底，静待 盈利修复&新技术渗透 投资建议： 强于大市（维持） 上次建议： 强于大市 相对大盘走势 -30% -13% 3% 20% 2023/11 2024/3 2024/7 2024/11 机械设备 沪深300 相关报 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company is showing signs of a revenue inflection point, with its carbon fiber business experiencing significant growth. The revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 1.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 620 million yuan, down 1% year-on-year. However, the third quarter alone saw a revenue of 750 million yuan, a remarkable 43% increase year-on-year and a 16% increase quarter-on-quarter [2][6] - The carbon fiber business is expected to continue its upward trajectory, driven by new product launches and increased production capacity. The company anticipates significant contributions from new contracts and product validations in the near term, particularly in the aerospace sector [6][4] - The market for carbon fiber is vast, with stable profit growth expected. The company forecasts revenues of 3.105 billion, 3.889 billion, and 4.553 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of 23.34%, 25.25%, and 17.07% [6][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported a revenue of 1.9 billion yuan, with a net profit of 620 million yuan. The third quarter alone contributed 750 million yuan in revenue and 250 million yuan in net profit [2][6] - The carbon fiber segment generated 1.147 billion yuan in revenue for the first three quarters, a 3.76% increase year-on-year, with the third quarter seeing a 38% year-on-year increase [6][4] Profitability Metrics - The overall gross margin improved to 46.76%, a year-on-year increase of 0.77 percentage points, while the net margin was 30.31%, down 3.73 percentage points year-on-year [6][4] - The third quarter gross margin reached 50.04%, reflecting a significant improvement driven by the growth in new carbon fiber products and carbon beam business [6][4] Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from new contracts and product validations, particularly in the aerospace sector, which is projected to contribute to revenue growth [6][4] - The domestic large aircraft market is entering a rapid growth phase, with a trend towards domestic carbon fiber substitution expected to drive long-term growth [6][4]

证券研究报告 策略研究|点评报告 "特朗普 2.0"，政策思路与资产线索 如何看? 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2024年11月06日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 2024 年 11 月 6 日，特朗普在第 47 任美国总统选举锁定胜局。尽管投票结果基本落定，但在 1 月 20 日总统宣誓就职前，仍需关注各州及国会对选举结果的确认以及特朗普"曼哈顿封口 费案"的宣判结果。大选落定后，自 10 月初持续发酵的"特朗普交易"或将在短期内延续。 中长期而言，共和党横扫的情况下，特朗普政策组合的落地程度或较高，可能触发美国再通胀 风险，同时高关税的负外部性将打击美国主要贸易合作伙伴经济，与中国的贸易"脱钩"程度 或进一步加深。报告基于"特朗普 2.0"的政策思路和潜在的经济影响对后市做出展望。 |分析师及联系人 杨灵修 包承超 万清昱 SAC：S0590523010002 SAC：S0590523100005 SAC：S0590523100004 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 9 策略研究|点评报告 | --- | --- | |-------------------------- ...

证券研究报告 宏观经济|宏观点评 短期扰动或不改就业市场温和走弱大势 ——美国 10 月非农就业数据点评 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2024年11月06日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 美国 10 月非农新增就业人数从 9 月的 25.4 万降至 1.2 万人，不及预期，前值下修。劳工统 计局在声明中表示，飓风可能影响了某些行业的就业，但表示无法量化飓风对全美就业人数、 工时或收入的影响。失业率从 9 月的 4.051%上升至 10 月的 4.145%，持平预期。10 月劳动参 与率 62.6%，较上月下降 0.1pct。10 月份平均时薪环比同比都小幅上行。期货市场预期美联 储 11 月降息的概率上升，11 月降息的概率接近 100%。我们认为今年继续降息是大概率，美 国经济仍有韧性，就业市场数据总体符合预期的情况下，美联储大概率继续小幅降息。 |分析师及联系人 王博群 方诗超 SAC：S0590524010002 SAC：S0590523030001 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 27 宏观经济|宏观点评 glzqdatemark2 2024年11月06日 宏观点评 短 ...

证券研究报告 行业研究|行业专题研究|轻工制造 2024Q3 轻工板块财报综述： 业绩有望筑底，期待政策成效 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2024年11月06日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 2024Q3 轻工制造板块收入同比-0.85%下降至 1563.38 亿元，归母净利润同比-26.03%至 79.56 亿元。2024Q3 轻工板块收入趋稳，其中内销景气度低迷，外销稳健增长；业绩承压，家居补 贴让利、库存浆成本高、Q3 海运费处高位及 9 月汇率升值扰动利润表现。展望 2024Q4，国补 有望提振消费疲软现状，带动上下游回暖。 |分析师及联系人 管泉森 孙珊 戚志圣 SAC：S0590523100007 SAC：S0590523110003 SAC：S0590523120002 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 28 行业研究|行业专题研究 | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

医药2024年三季报总结： 业绩触底，行业有望稳健回升 国联证券医药研究团队 2024年11月06日 证券研究报告 报告评级：强于大市丨维持 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 投资要点 ➢ 2024年三季度医药生物公募基金重仓比例提升 2024Q3医药生物公募基金重仓比例为10.71%，环比提升0.83pct，相比于二季度公募基金大幅流出医药的情况，三季度有明显 的资金回流迹象。从细分子行业来看，各子行业重仓比例变动有所分化，加仓幅度依次为化学制药（+0.76pct) ＞医疗服务 （+0.48pct) ＞生物制品（+0.11pct) ＞中药Ⅱ（-0.01pct) ＞医药商业（-0.02pct) ＞医疗器械（-0.47pct）。 ➢ 2024年三季度医药上市公司总体财务数据一般但部分细分产业表现较好 2024Q3样本公司实现收入5969亿元，同比下滑1.27%，归母净利润404亿元，同比下滑16.03%。总体数据表现一般，但其中部分 细分领域表现较好，三季度医疗耗材收入同比增长12.19%，归母净利润同比增长16.33%；化学制剂板块收入同比增长2.34%， 归母净利润同比增长10.48%，化药板块高增长的可能原因 ...

证券研究报告 行业研究|行业专题研究|食品饮料 酒类 2024Q3 综述：基本面磨底，报表 降速 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2024年11月06日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 2024Q3 白酒板块报表压力加速释放，行业营收放缓，利润增速略慢于收入。从报表质量来看， 多数酒企回款慢于收入,同时产品结构升级放缓，白酒板块盈利基本持平。啤酒来看，需求偏 弱下龙头量价均略承压，产品结构表现偏弱，但青啤中高端产品销量韧性较强。成本红利延 续，酒企积极提质增效，整体费用率稳健，盈利能力提升略有放缓。 |分析师及联系人 邓周贵 徐锡联 刘景瑜 吴雪枫 SAC：S0590524040005 SAC：S0590524040004 SAC：S0590524030005 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 17 行业研究|行业专题研究 glzqdatemark2 2024年11月06日 食品饮料 酒类 2024Q3 综述：基本面磨底，报表降速 投资建议： 强于大市（维持） 上次建议： 强于大市 相对大盘走势 -40% -20% 0% 20% 2023/11 2024/3 2024/7 2024/1 ...