Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [4] Core Insights - North American cloud providers such as Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Meta have achieved significant progress in AI applications and infrastructure through high capital expenditures and continuous innovation. The demand for AI applications and infrastructure is driving growth for Amazon AWS and Microsoft Azure, while Google and Meta are actively expanding their cloud service market share by launching new products and AI services to meet diverse enterprise needs. AMD has also shown strong revenue and profit growth in Q3 2024, with its data center business being a major growth driver. The AI industry continues to exhibit high prosperity, and investment opportunities in the AI computing power supply chain are promising [2][6][19] Summary by Sections 1. Capital Expenditure Growth of Major Cloud Providers - The capital expenditures of the four major North American cloud providers in Q3 2024 have shown significant year-on-year growth, with Amazon's capital expenditure increasing by 88%, and Google, Microsoft, and Meta's capital expenditures growing by 62%, 51%, and 36% respectively [9][6] 1.1 Amazon - In Q3 2024, Amazon achieved total revenue of $158.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 11%, and a net profit of $15.3 billion, up 55% year-on-year. This growth is attributed to stable revenue growth from AWS and strong demand for AI services [11][10] 1.2 Google - Google reported Q3 2024 revenue of $88.3 billion, a 15% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of $26.3 billion, up 34%. The cloud business revenue reached $11.4 billion, growing 35% year-on-year, driven by advancements in AI infrastructure and core products [12][13] 1.3 Microsoft - Microsoft achieved Q3 2024 revenue of $65.6 billion, a 16% year-on-year increase, with a net profit of $24.7 billion, up 11%. The Azure cloud business saw a 34% year-on-year revenue growth, with AI services contributing significantly [14] 1.4 Meta - Meta's Q3 2024 revenue was $40.6 billion, a 19% year-on-year increase, with a net profit of $15.7 billion, up 35%. The company raised its full-year capital expenditure guidance to between $38 billion and $40 billion [16][17] 2. AMD's Performance - AMD reported Q3 2024 revenue of $6.8 billion, an 18% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of $771 million, up 158%. The revenue growth is primarily driven by significant increases in data center and client processor sales [19][21] 2.1 Data Center and Client Business Growth - The data center business became a strong growth engine for AMD, with revenue increasing by 122% year-on-year to $3.55 billion, setting a new quarterly record. The demand for AMD's Instinct series GPUs and EPYC series CPUs continues to drive business growth [21] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the AI computing power supply chain and domestic equipment materials supply chain. The rapid development of AI applications and the increasing demand for computing power are expected to drive growth in related sectors [23][24]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market" for the engineering machinery sector [4]. Core Insights - The engineering machinery sector is gradually recovering in 2024, with domestic sales showing signs of improvement and overseas demand expected to rebound due to interest rate cuts [2][5]. - The report indicates that the domestic market for excavators has shown a positive trend, with sales growth expanding beyond excavators to other product lines [6][28]. - The performance of major companies in the sector is expected to improve, driven by policies such as "trade-in" programs and increasing demand in 2025 [5][6]. Summary by Sections 1. Performance of Engineering Machinery Companies - The engineering machinery sector achieved a total revenue of approximately 233.4 billion yuan in Q1-Q3 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2%, with net profit rising by 15.4% to about 21.2 billion yuan [5][9]. - In Q3 2024, the sector's revenue reached approximately 71.3 billion yuan, up 3% year-on-year, and net profit increased by 29% to 6.3 billion yuan [5][9]. - The recovery in the sector is attributed to a rebound in domestic demand and an increase in market share for leading companies overseas [9][11]. 2. Domestic Sales Trends - The cumulative sales of excavators in China for Q1-Q3 2024 reached 147,000 units, a slight decline of 0.96% year-on-year, but monthly sales growth turned positive starting April 2024 [5][14]. - Domestic sales of excavators in Q1-Q3 2024 totaled 74,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.62% [5][14]. - The report highlights that the engineering machinery industry has entered a recovery phase, supported by significant infrastructure investments and government policies [25][26]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on domestic demand recovery and overseas opportunities driven by interest rate cuts [6][28]. - It emphasizes that leading companies in the sector, such as SANY Heavy Industry, XCMG, and LiuGong, are well-positioned to benefit from these trends [6][28]. - The report anticipates that the engineering machinery sector will continue to perform well in Q4 2024, with clear signs of improving domestic market demand [6][28].

Investment Rating - Investment recommendation: Outperform the market (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The testing service sector is still in a bottoming phase, with revenue growth slowing down due to weak domestic demand and overcapacity in the industry. However, a recovery in the macroeconomic environment is expected to improve supply and demand dynamics by 2025 [2][5][10] - The overall valuation of the domestic testing industry has fallen to historical lows, which may have fully reflected current expectations. As economic policies are gradually implemented and company performance improves, there is potential for a rebound in industry valuations [6][29] Summary by Sections 1. Testing Services: Industry Still in Bottoming Phase - The testing service industry achieved a total revenue of approximately 16.27 billion yuan in Q1-Q3 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was approximately 1.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.5% [5][10] - In Q3 2024, the industry generated a total revenue of approximately 5.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.4%, with net profit of 780 million yuan, down 15% year-on-year [5][10] - The industry is experiencing overcapacity, leading to a decline in profitability, with gross margins and net margins both decreasing [12][13] 2. Valuation at Historical Low Levels, Potential for Recovery - As of September 30, 2024, the overall PE (TTM) of the testing service sector was 30.14 times, which is at the 19.54% percentile of the past five years, with a five-year average PE of 51.61 times [6][21] - The manufacturing PMI for September 2024 was 49.8%, indicating a slight recovery, which may support a rebound in the testing service sector [6][28] 3. Investment Recommendations: Focus on Opportunities for Valuation Rebound - The report suggests focusing on the potential rebound in valuations within the testing industry, particularly as the macroeconomic environment improves and downstream demand gradually recovers [29] - Recommended companies include Su Shi Testing and China Automotive Research, with a suggestion to pay attention to Hua Ce Testing [29]

证券研究报告 行业研究|行业点评研究|汽车 特朗普当选如何影响汽车行业？ 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2024年11月10日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 复盘 2016 年-2024 年汽车行业来看，汽车板块投资基于行业销量，投资主线是产业升级。2020- 2024 年电动化完成渗透率从 0 到 50%渗透率的提升，目前行业处在电动化向智能化切换的阶 段，同时技术及产业链的领先帮助整车及零部件企业完成产品出口到全球化运营的转换，消 费政策支持保证内销销量相对稳定。外部条件变化并非影响汽车板块投资的核心因素。 |分析师及联系人 高登 陈斯竹 SAC：S0590523110004 SAC：S0590523100009 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 15 行业研究|行业点评研究 glzqdatemark2 2024年11月10日 汽车 特朗普当选如何影响汽车行业？ 投资建议： 强于大市（维持） 上次建议： 强于大市 相对大盘走势 -30% -13% 3% 20% 2023/11 2024/3 2024/7 2024/11 汽车 沪深300 相关报告 1、《汽车：特斯拉成首批数据合 ...

Export Performance - In October, China's export growth rate was 12.7% year-on-year in USD terms, significantly up from 2.4% in September and better than the consensus forecast of 5.1%[5] - Seasonally adjusted, October exports increased by 3.9% month-on-month, recovering from a previous decline of 2.1%[12] - The rebound in exports was supported by "export rush" factors and delayed shipments from September due to typhoons[8] Product Categories - Exports of agricultural products, machinery, and light industrial goods saw significant month-on-month increases of 9.4%, 9.1%, and 9.4% respectively[6] - Exports of raw materials and high-tech products showed mixed results, with raw materials declining by 4.6% and high-tech products decreasing by 2.8%[6][22] Trade Partners - Exports to major trading partners such as the US, EU, ASEAN, South Korea, Brazil, and India increased by 5.1%, 3.1%, 7.3%, 10.9%, 14.2%, and 11.1% respectively[6][25] - The only exception was a decline in exports to Hong Kong, which fell by 2.6%[25] Import Trends - October imports decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, down from a 0.3% increase in September, primarily due to a higher base from the previous year[29] - Seasonally adjusted, imports rose by 2.5% month-on-month, recovering from a flat performance in September[29] Product Imports - Imports of finished products, including machinery and high-tech goods, generally increased, with machinery imports rising by 1.7% and high-tech products by 4.1%[33] - However, agricultural imports fell by 3.5% month-on-month, indicating a mixed performance in the import sector[33] Future Outlook - Short-term export support is expected to continue due to "export rush" factors, but medium-term pressures from declining external demand and high overseas inventory levels may lead to a downturn in exports early next year[8][40] - The Chinese economy is anticipated to recover, supported by policy measures and a transition to new growth drivers, which may boost imports further[47] Risks - Potential risks include unexpected downturns in overseas economies, policy inconsistencies, and geopolitical tensions that could adversely affect export performance[48]

Group 1: Election Outcome and Market Reaction - Trump won the 2024 U.S. presidential election, securing over 270 electoral votes, with the Republican Party also gaining a majority in the Senate[5] - Following the election results, U.S. Treasury yields rose, with the 2-year yield increasing by 8 basis points and the 10-year yield rising by 16 basis points[26] - Major U.S. stock indices saw significant gains, with the Nasdaq up 3.0%, S&P 500 up 2.5%, and Dow Jones up 3.6%[26] Group 2: Economic Policies and Implications - Trump is expected to implement tax cuts domestically and tariffs internationally, which may increase policy uncertainty compared to the current Democratic administration[19] - The Federal Reserve is likely to continue gradual rate cuts, with a nearly 100% probability of a 25 basis point cut in November 2024[31] - Trump's tax plan could increase the U.S. deficit by approximately $3 trillion over the next decade, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability[33] Group 3: Trade and Inflation Concerns - Imposing tariffs may slow U.S. economic growth and raise import prices, with a 10% tariff increase projected to reduce real GDP by 0.36% by 2026[37] - The U.S. trade deficit reached $1.2 trillion in 2023, accounting for about 2.4% of global imports and exports combined[5] - The current global monetary system may prevent significant reductions in the U.S. trade deficit, as the dollar remains a dominant international currency[5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market" for the telecommunications industry [4]. Core Insights - The GSE technology, developed by China Mobile and partners, integrates high-performance computing needs into Ethernet, facilitating the rapid development of AIGC (Artificial Intelligence Generated Content) and other high-performance applications. The GSE1.0 technology has been commercially deployed in over 10,000 computing centers, reducing communication time during training processes by over 20%, achieving international leading levels [2][6][10]. Summary by Sections 1. GSE Technology Facilitates Rapid Development of AIGC - The GSE technology addresses the high-performance and low-latency communication requirements essential for distributed parallel computing in AI model training. It is designed to support the construction of large-scale intelligent computing centers and the deployment of AI large models [10][11]. 1.1 Emergence of GSE Technology - GSE technology is not a complete overhaul of Ethernet but rather incorporates high-performance computing demands into the existing Ethernet framework, maximizing the reuse of Ethernet's physical layer and ensuring compatibility with the Ethernet ecosystem [11][12]. 1.2 Maturation of the GSE Ecosystem - The GSE ecosystem has matured, with China Mobile planning to invest over 1 billion in developing a 51.2T switching chip suitable for various computing scenarios. The GSE technology standards and the first commercial GSE products were launched during the China Computing Conference, marking a significant milestone [7][14]. 1.3 Ruijie Networks Wins GSE First Bid - Ruijie Networks has been awarded the first GSE project by China Mobile, successfully completing the first commercial GSE network pilot verification. The pilot network achieved over 95% utilization and improved performance by over 50% in LLaMA2-13B model tests [15][16]. 2. Investment Recommendations: Focus on GSE Industry Chain Opportunities - The report emphasizes the investment opportunities within the GSE industry chain, recommending attention to companies such as Ruijie Networks, Unisoc, ZTE, and China Mobile, as AI development continues to drive demand for computing power [16].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [3][4]. Core Insights - Demand for consumer goods remains under pressure, with the restaurant sector experiencing a further decline compared to Q2 2024. However, the cost benefits from raw materials continue to support profit margins for key consumer goods companies [2][3]. - In Q1-Q3 2024, consumer goods companies achieved revenues of 241.72 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.25%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 24.57 billion yuan, an increase of 10.88% [2][3]. - The report anticipates a recovery in demand driven by consumer stimulus policies and improvements in core assets and consumer expectations [2][3]. Summary by Sections 1. Consumer Demand and Raw Material Cost Benefits - Q3 2024 saw a slight slowdown in restaurant growth compared to Q2 2024, with compound growth rates for restaurant income compared to 2019 being 3.63%, 2.25%, and 2.92% for July, August, and September respectively [3][7]. - The majority of raw material prices for consumer goods continued to decline in Q3 2024, leading to expanded cost benefits for companies [13][16]. 2. Profit Performance of Consumer Goods Companies - In Q3 2024, consumer goods companies' profits outperformed revenues due to cost benefits and efficiency measures, with key companies reporting revenues of 78.20 billion yuan and a net profit of 7.03 billion yuan [18][19]. - The performance of sub-sectors varied significantly, with basic condiments showing a revenue and net profit growth of 4.40% and 10.22% respectively, while the restaurant supply chain faced a decline in profitability [19]. 3. Individual Sector Performance - Basic condiments benefited from significant raw material price reductions, while compound condiments maintained stable competition and profit optimization [19]. - The dairy sector experienced revenue declines but managed to achieve positive profit growth due to raw material cost benefits [19]. - The snack sector continued to show high growth due to channel advantages, with revenue and net profit increasing by 4.14% and 29.88% respectively [19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the banking sector, indicating a positive outlook compared to the broader market [3]. Core Insights - The debt replacement plan is expected to directly benefit the asset quality of financial institutions, aiding in the recovery of their valuations. The average government debt ratio among G20 countries was 118.2% at the end of 2023, while China's government debt ratio stood at 67.5%, suggesting significant room for further borrowing [2][3]. - The policy includes an increase of 10 trillion yuan in local government debt limits, aimed at replacing hidden debts, which will alleviate the debt pressure on local governments and allow for more resources to be allocated towards economic growth [3]. - The debt replacement is anticipated to improve the asset quality of financial institutions, with banks expected to benefit from reduced non-performing loans and enhanced credit conditions if economic recovery exceeds expectations [3]. Summary by Sections Policy Impact - The recent approval of a resolution to increase local government debt limits by 10 trillion yuan will facilitate the replacement of hidden debts, reducing the total hidden debt from 14.3 trillion yuan to 2.3 trillion yuan, significantly easing the debt burden on local governments [3]. - The policy shift from emergency measures to proactive debt resolution is expected to support economic stability and growth, with local governments able to redirect resources towards investment and consumption [3]. Financial Sector Outlook - The debt replacement is likely to alleviate market concerns regarding the asset quality of insurance companies, as they hold a certain amount of local government bonds. This could lead to a stabilization of long-term interest rates and an improvement in net investment returns for insurance firms [3]. - As of June 2024, the non-performing loan balance for commercial banks in China was 3.34 trillion yuan, with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.56%. The debt replacement is expected to significantly improve these figures [3]. Future Policy Expectations - The report anticipates further incremental policies to support the financial sector, including tax policies for a healthy real estate market and special bonds to enhance the core tier one capital of state-owned banks [3]. - Overall, the debt replacement initiative is seen as a catalyst for the recovery of financial institution valuations, with expectations of sustained high policy intensity in fiscal measures [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the light industry sector [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights the acceleration of policies related to real estate and the expansion of the "old-for-new" program, which is expected to significantly boost demand in the home furnishings sector [2][3]. - A total of 10 trillion yuan in local debt resources will be directly increased to support the real estate market, reflecting a strong commitment from the central government to stabilize the market [3]. - The home furnishings sector has seen a 36.7% increase in stock prices since September 24, 2024, indicating a positive market response to the new policies [3]. Summary by Sections Industry Events - On November 8, 2024, the National People's Congress announced the increase of local debt resources by 10 trillion yuan, with various real estate policies accelerating implementation [2][3]. - The government plans to expand the scope and scale of the "old-for-new" program, which is expected to have a substantial impact on home consumption [3]. Financial Overview - The report anticipates that the third quarter of 2024 will see a bottoming out of performance in the light industry sector, with expectations for policy effectiveness to drive recovery [3]. - The home furnishings sector has experienced a significant stock price increase, with the price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) reaching approximately 14x, indicating potential for further growth [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading home furnishing companies that are likely to benefit from the new policies, including those involved in stockpiling and urban village renovations [3]. - Specific recommendations include traditional leaders like Sophia, and companies in soft furnishings and smart home sectors such as Gujia Home and Arrow Home [3].