证券研究报告 非金融公司|公司深度|软控股份（002073） 液体黄金持续增长，轮胎设备龙头扬帆 起航 2024年11月08日 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 证券研究报告 |报告要点 1）中国轮胎步入全球化扩张阶段，在建/拟建产能超亿条，旺盛的扩产需求有望带动大量的新 增设备需求，轮胎设备景气上行，公司订单需求高增。2）公司是稀缺的轮胎生产解决方案供 应商，二十余年来持续研发投入，产品覆盖轮胎生产 80%的核心装备，产品性能比肩国际且具 有较强性价比优势，全球市场份额持续提升，2018-2023 年销售额 CAGR 为 17.2%，显著高于 海外头部企业。3）橡胶新材料业务持续发力，EVEC 胶性能优异且具有技术壁垒，有望受益于 液体黄金轮胎放量，打开成长空间。 |分析师及联系人 张玮航 许隽逸 SAC：S0590524090003 SAC：S0590524060003 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 35 非金融公司|公司深度 glzqdatemark2 2024年11月08日 软控股份(002073) 液体黄金持续增长，轮胎设备龙头扬帆起航 | --- | --- | | ...

Macro Environment and Policy Support - The 2013-2016 M&A wave was driven by a combination of policy relaxation, liquidity expansion, and overcapacity, with the current macro environment showing similar conditions [2] - During this period, China faced a downward shift in economic growth and entered a critical phase of industrial restructuring, with the tertiary sector surpassing the secondary sector in GDP contribution [9][10] - A series of supportive policies were introduced to address challenges in M&A, including simplifying approval procedures, improving financial and tax policies, and encouraging cross-regional mergers [11][12] Market Performance and Characteristics - The M&A wave began with the IPO suspension in late 2012 and ended with policy tightening in 2016, with the Wind M&A Index achieving a 246% excess return during this period [15][16] - Small-cap and TMT sectors outperformed, with private enterprises and small-to-medium market cap companies dominating the M&A activities [18][19] - The issuance of shares for asset purchases was the most common M&A method, while the purpose of M&A shifted from shell listings to horizontal integration and diversification strategies [20][21] Industry Participation and Trends - TMT, retail, social services, and defense industries were the most active participants in M&A, benefiting from the mobile internet wave and VC/PE exits [22] - The M&A wave significantly boosted the performance of TMT and social services sectors in 2013 and 2015, with a positive correlation between M&A activity and industry returns [27][28] Financial Impact of M&A - M&A activities had a short-term positive financial effect, with EPS and net profit increasing in the year following the merger, but the effect diminished over time [31][32] - Shell listings showed the most significant EPS and profit growth in the short term, while diversification strategies had more sustainable effects [33] - The M&A wave led to a surge in goodwill, with M&A companies accounting for over 50% of total A-share goodwill from 2016 onwards, increasing the risk of impairment [34][35]

证券研究报告 行业研究|行业深度研究|房地产 关注收益水平提升，期待收储落地提速 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2024年11月08日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 中央定调、各部委积极响应，收储存量房和土地的相关支持政策相继出台。资金层面央行专项 借款和财政体系的专项债预计是本轮收储的主要资金来源，而收储在落地过程中仍面临项目 收益水平较低的制约。若后续出台更多有效的收储落地措施，如拉长收储资金的考核周期、扩 大收储项目范围、政府给予配套融资贴息等，收储进展或提速，能缓解当前房企现金流压力， 优化市场供求结构，促进房地产止跌企稳。 |分析师及联系人 杜昊旻 方鹏 姜好幸 刘汪 SAC：S0590524070006 SAC：S0590524100003 SAC：S0590524070008 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 26 行业研究|行业深度研究 | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Zijin Mining (601899) [3] Core Views - Zijin Mining is a global mining giant with world-class resources and production capacity, which will help the company achieve rapid production growth [2] - The acquisition of the La Arena gold and copper mine in Peru will further enhance the company's gold and copper resource reserves [5] - The La Arena project is expected to significantly contribute to Zijin Mining's 2028 production targets [5] - The company's net profit is forecasted to be 32.265 billion yuan, 38.451 billion yuan, and 45.119 billion yuan for 2024-2026, with EPS of 1.21 yuan, 1.45 yuan, and 1.70 yuan respectively [2][5] Acquisition Details - Zijin Mining's subsidiary, Jin Shan (Singapore) Mining, plans to acquire 100% equity in the La Arena gold mine and its Phase II project from Pan American Silver Corp for $245 million, with additional contingent payments of $50 million and a 1.5% royalty on net smelter returns from gold production [5][9] - The La Arena project has a total asset value of $320 million, with net assets of $165 million and a net profit of $10 million in 2023 [10] - The Phase II project has proven and controlled resources of 740 million tons, containing approximately 175.3 tons of gold and 2.627 million tons of copper [5][17] Production and Development - The La Arena Phase I project, operational since 2011, produces approximately 3 tons of gold annually, with a remaining service life of 3 years [20] - The Phase II project, still in the research phase, is expected to produce 100,000 tons of copper and 3.8 tons of gold annually once operational [20] - The project is located in a world-renowned metallogenic belt, with significant potential for further resource discovery [17] Financial Projections - Zijin Mining's revenue is expected to grow from 270.329 billion yuan in 2022 to 378.865 billion yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 14.91% from 2024 to 2026 [6] - The company's EBITDA is projected to increase from 42.026 billion yuan in 2022 to 85.052 billion yuan in 2026 [6] - The P/E ratio is expected to decrease from 14.3x in 2024 to 10.2x in 2026, indicating potential undervaluation [6] Industry and Market Position - Zijin Mining operates in the non-ferrous metals/industrial metals sector and is positioned as a global leader with significant resource and production capabilities [3][5] - The company's strategic acquisitions and development projects are expected to strengthen its market position and resource base [5][17]

证券研究报告 行业研究 | 行业专题研究 | 社会服务 2024Q3 社服零售财报综述: 出入境、 人服为亮点，关注高质量龙头 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 2024年11月08日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 202403 社零大盘/餐饮类服务消费/商品类消费销售增速延续弱势, 2024 年 6 月社零/餐饮/商 品零售销售额累计增速分别为 3.7%/7.9%/3.2%，至9月累计增速分别降至 3.3%/6.2%/3.0%。 消费数据未见拐点，已经兑现的增量方向以及相应的龙头公司所具有的竞争优势有望相比过 去更有持续性，持续关注预期改善与业绩兑现。建议关注华住集团-S、名创优品、北京人力、 途虎-W 等高质量发展龙头公司。 | 分析师及联系人 邓文慧 會品 郭家玮 SAC: S0590522060001 SAC: S0590523080001 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 18 行业研究 | 行业专题研究 2024年11月08日 社会服务 2024Q3 社服零售财报综述: 出入境、人服为 亮点,关注高质量龙头 授费建议: 上次建议: 径于大市 (维持) 径于大市 相对大盘走势 社会服务 20% -20% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yili Group (600887) [1][2] Core Views - Yili Group's 2024 Q3 revenue was 290.37 billion yuan, down 6.66% YoY, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.337 billion yuan, up 8.53% YoY [1][4] - The company's profit performance is strong despite weak dairy demand, benefiting from completed channel adjustments, cost advantages, and expense control [1][6] - With stabilizing raw milk prices and demand, Yili is expected to continue improving its operations [1][6] Financial Performance Revenue and Profit - 2024 Q1-Q3 revenue: 887.33 billion yuan, down 8.61% YoY [1][4] - 2024 Q1-Q3 net profit: 10.868 billion yuan, up 15.87% YoY [1][4] - 2024 Q3 liquid milk revenue: 206.37 billion yuan, down 10.31% YoY but up 24.12% QoQ [4] - 2024 Q3 milk powder revenue: 68.21 billion yuan, up 6.56% YoY [4] - 2024 Q3 ice cream revenue: 10.21 billion yuan, down 16.65% YoY [4] Profitability - 2024 Q3 gross margin: 34.85%, up 2.48 pct YoY [6] - 2024 Q3 net margin: 11.45%, up 1.63 pct YoY [6] - 2024 Q3 sales expense ratio: 19.02%, up 1.09 pct YoY [6] - Gross margin-sales expense ratio difference: up 1.39 pct [6] Industry and Market Position - Yili Group is a leading dairy products company in China [1][6] - The dairy industry is facing weak demand, but Yili's channel adjustments have improved product distribution [1][4] - The company benefits from cost advantages and has strong control over expenses [1][6] Future Projections - 2024-2026 revenue forecast: 1.18855 trillion yuan, 1.21403 trillion yuan, 1.26437 trillion yuan [7] - 2024-2026 net profit forecast: 12.079 billion yuan, 11.281 billion yuan, 12.234 billion yuan [7] - 3-year CAGR for net profit: 5.47% [7] Valuation Metrics - Current price: 30.20 yuan [2] - 2024E P/E: 15.9x [7] - 2024E P/B: 3.4x [7] - 2024E EV/EBITDA: 10.2x [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [10] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 3.594 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 9.40% after adjusting for data from Inner Mongolia Mengniu Cheese Co., Ltd. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 85 million yuan, a significant increase of 571.67% year-on-year [2][6] - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1.217 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 6.74%, but managed to turn a profit with a net profit of 13 million yuan [2][6] - Following the acquisition of Mengniu Cheese Co., the company aims to control revenue scale while focusing on profit improvement, enhancing product structure and cost management [2][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2024, the company reported a revenue of 3.594 billion yuan, down 9.40% year-on-year, and a net profit of 85 million yuan, up 571.67% year-on-year [2][6] - In Q3 2024, the revenue was 1.217 billion yuan, down 6.74% year-on-year, with a net profit of 13 million yuan [2][6] - The company’s gross margin decreased to 22.45% in Q3 2024, down 3.19 percentage points year-on-year [6] Product and Channel Analysis - In Q3 2024, cheese and liquid milk revenues were 952 million yuan and 95 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 23.52% and 18.24% [6] - The distribution channels in Q3 2024 showed revenue from distributors, direct sales, and trade at 940 million yuan, 107 million yuan, and 141 million yuan, respectively, with distributor revenue growing by 33.94% [6] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 4.686 billion yuan, 4.962 billion yuan, and 5.176 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 15.74%, 5.88%, and 4.31% respectively [6][7] - The net profit projections for the same period are 114 million yuan, 183 million yuan, and 221 million yuan, with growth rates of 79.52%, 61.03%, and 20.75% respectively [6][7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][7]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 42.57 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-over-year increase of 1.2%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 7.2% to 8.8 billion yuan, and the non-recurring net profit fell by 14.4% to 7.9 billion yuan [2][5]. - The company continues to experience resilient revenue growth, but the decline in non-recurring profits is significant, primarily due to asset impairment provisions and non-current asset disposal gains [5]. - The demand for water conservancy investments and renewable energy projects remains strong, with positive growth prospects for the company's engineering business [5][7]. - The company's power operation business is expanding rapidly, and there is a notable contribution from the sand and gravel business [5][7]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q1-Q3 2024, the company's gross margin was 12.4%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points year-over-year, while the expense ratio rose to 8.4%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points [5]. - The company's net profit margin for Q1-Q3 was 2.1%, down 0.2 percentage points year-over-year, with Q3 showing a net profit margin of 1.8%, also down 0.2 percentage points [5]. - The new contract value for Q1-Q3 2024 reached 861.1 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 5.4%, with significant contributions from the energy and electricity sector [5][7]. - The company's total debt ratio increased to 79.0% by the end of Q3 2024, up 1.1 percentage points year-over-year, indicating a challenging cash collection environment [5][6]. Future Projections - The report projects the company's revenue for 2024-2026 to be 643.4 billion yuan, 698.1 billion yuan, and 776.5 billion yuan, respectively, with year-over-year growth rates of 6%, 8%, and 11% [7]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 13.2 billion yuan, 14.7 billion yuan, and 16.6 billion yuan for the same period, with growth rates of 2%, 11%, and 13% [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4][6]. Core Views - The company, Shandong Hongqiao, reported a net profit of 15.754 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 141.43%. The company continues to build an integrated upstream and downstream industrial chain while actively integrating overseas bauxite resources [2][6]. - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 19.59 billion, 21.27 billion, and 22.59 billion yuan for 2024-2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 70.93%, 8.58%, and 6.22%, respectively. The corresponding EPS for these years is projected to be 2.07, 2.24, and 2.38 yuan, with current stock prices corresponding to P/E ratios of 7.02, 6.47, and 6.09 times [2][6]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, Shandong Hongqiao achieved operating revenue of 110.068 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.47%, and a net profit of 15.754 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 141.43% [6][9]. - The average price of electrolytic aluminum increased by 5.9% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2024, while the average price in Q3 increased by 3.9% year-on-year but decreased by 4.6% quarter-on-quarter. The prices of prebaked anodes and coal decreased by 22.9% and 10.6% year-on-year, respectively, in the first three quarters of 2024 [6][9]. - The theoretical profit of alumina in Q3 2024 was approximately 1,069 yuan/ton, an increase of 886 yuan/ton year-on-year and 188 yuan/ton quarter-on-quarter. The company has a total annual alumina production capacity of 19.5 million tons as of H1 2024 [6][9]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to have operating revenues of 132.79 billion, 133.16 billion, and 135.58 billion yuan for 2024-2026, with year-on-year growth rates of -0.62%, +0.28%, and +1.82%, respectively. The expected EBITDA for these years is 37.147 billion, 38.880 billion, and 40.769 billion yuan [6][9]. - The company’s net profit is forecasted to be 19.59 billion, 21.27 billion, and 22.59 billion yuan for 2024-2026, with corresponding P/E ratios of 7.02, 6.47, and 6.09 times [6][9].

证券研究报告 港股公司|公司点评|小鹏汽车-W（09868） 小鹏汽车 2024 年 10 月销量点评： Mona 热销 P7+或延续，智能全球助成长 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2024年11月07日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 2024 年 11 月 1 日，小鹏汽车公布 10 月交付数据。2024 年 10 月，小鹏汽车共交付新车 23,917 台，同比增长 20%，环比增长 12%。2024 年 1 月-10 月，小鹏汽车累计交付新车共 122,478 台， 同比增长 21%。我们预计公司 2024/2025/2026 年销量分别为 18/45/67 万辆，对应营业收入分 别为 436/793/1046 亿元，同比增速分别为 42%/82%/32%。归母净利润分别为-50.5/ -5/23 亿元。维持"买入"评级。 |分析师及联系人 高登 SAC：S0590523110004 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 5 数据来源：公司公告、iFinD，国联证券研究所预测；股价为 2024 年 11 月 07 日收盘价 港股公司|公司点评 glzqdatemark2 2024年 ...