| --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------| | 联系我们 | | | 北京：北京市东城区安定门外大街 208 号中粮置地广场 A 塔 4 楼 | 上海：上海市浦东新区世纪大道 1198 号世纪汇二座 25 楼 | | 无锡：江苏省无锡市金融一街 8 号国联金融大厦 12 | 楼 深圳：广东省深圳市福田区益田路 6009 号新世界中心大厦 45 楼 | | 电话： 0510-85187583 | | 证券研究报告 作者 5 月美国非农就业增长超预期与失业率超预期上行到 4%同时出现，我们认 为非农就业由于统计方法、样本等问题可能高估了美国就业的水平，未来 还可能下修。实际上，4 月美国职位空缺数下降，职位空缺失业比也下降到 1.24。综合各数据，就业市场虽然强于预期，但是整体仍在边际走弱。2024 年 12 月会议降息的概率仍超过 90 ...

证券研究报告 行 2024年06月11日 业 报 投资建议： 强于大市（维持） 告 家用电器 上次建议： 强于大市 │ 行 业 相对大盘走势 空调格局的变与不变 专 家用电器 沪深300 题 20% 研  空调收入规模仍有数量级差距 究 7% 根据出货口径的产业在线数据，2022-2023 年格力和美的的分体式空调内 销量份额分别下降 6.2pct 和 1.9pct，这对以格局好著称的空调而言，并 -7% 不算好消息。但实际情况远好于此，不论体系，单论业务总收入，格力美 的均1500亿，500~1500亿是断层；进一步拆分到家空内销，格力1200亿 -20% 2023/6 2023/10 2024/2 2024/6 +，美的800-900亿，海信（不含日立）、TCL、长虹多在百亿级。不难发现， 龙头与二线之间，收入规模仍有数量级差距，量变常有，质变须从长计议。 作者 分析师：管泉森  典型传统二线厂商转向新模式 执业证书编号：S0590523100007 本轮长虹内销表现抢眼，2023年突破80亿，大幅超越前高。除了自身经营 邮箱：guanqs@glsc.com.cn 稳步恢复外，来自小米的业务增量是长虹 ...

期货投资者适当性管理办法本次电话会议仅服务于国联证券研究所白名单客户本次会议在任何情形下都不构成对会议参加者的投资建议相关人员应自主作出投资决策并自行承担投资风险国联证券不对任何人因使用会议内容而引致的任何损失承担任何责任 未经国联证券事先书面许可任何机构或个人不得以任何形式复制、刊载、转载、转发、引用本次会议内容否则,由此造成的一切后果及法律责任由该机构或个人承担本公司保留追究其法律责任的权利 尊敬的各位投资者大家晚上好非常感谢大家来参加我们今天晚上的这个电话会议那我们和大家探讨一下五月份的美国的分农数据那这份数据其实有很多的争议因为他这个数据里面有出现一些这个矛盾的点我们和大家分享一下我们是怎么看的 首先核心观点上来看我们认为5月份这个数据仍然是显示美国的整个就业市场就综合各个数据的话我们还是认为就是整体的就业市场还是在一个降温就是 其实主要的显示这个就业市场似乎比大家预想的要强的数据就是这个非农新增的这么一个数据但是其他的数据就是这个失业率的数据空缺率的数据空缺和失业的比的这些数据都指向了一个逐渐降温的这个就业市场所以我们认为就核心结论就是我们这个题目就我们还是认为整体的就业市场还是在逐步的一个降温 第 ...

根据证券期货投资者适当性管理办法本次电话会议仅服务于国联证券研究所白名单客户本次会议在任何情形下都不构成对会议参加者的投资建议相关人员应自主作出投资决策并自行承担投资风险国联证券不对任何人因使用会议内容而引致的任何损失承担任何责任 未经国联证券事先书面许可任何机构或个人不得以任何形式复制、刊载、转载、转发引用本次会议内容否则由此造成的一切后果及法律责任由该机构或个人承担本公司保留追究其法律责任的权利 各位领导下午好首先祝大家端午节安康也非常感谢各位领导在百忙之中在端午节的这么一个下午然后来参加我们国联食品饮料的这么一个系列电话会议那么今天是我们电话会的第四期然后以后我们每周的这个周五的这个下午都会和大家见面然后去跟大家汇报一下我们一周以内食品饮料的这个 投资者比较关注的话题跟大家汇报一下我们最新的观点本期呢其实我是针对我们整个安徽市场的这个渠道调研以及股东大会这个整个调研的感受和情况来跟各位投资者进行一个汇报 那么整体来看的话呢其实安徽市场去年的需求相对于整个白酒板块其实是有α的那么这个需求主要还是体现了两个方面一方面是延期市场的需求超越期 这个延期市场的需求超越期呢一方面是返乡另一方面就是灰燕需求的回补那么 ...

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating to "Buy" with a target price of 19.50 CNY, based on a 15x PE for 2024 [7][9]. Core Views - The company is accelerating its globalization strategy while enhancing product innovation, brand building, and product upgrades, which are expected to lead to both profit and valuation improvements, positioning the company among the global tire leaders [2][12]. - The long-term demand for tires is supported by the steady growth in vehicle ownership and the exit of outdated production capacities, allowing Chinese tire companies to capture more global market share [4][30]. - The company has established a comprehensive product layout and is a pioneer in overseas expansion, with production bases in Vietnam and Cambodia, and plans for additional bases in Indonesia and Mexico [3][19]. Summary by Sections 1. Comprehensive Product Layout and Overseas Expansion - The company has completed its product layout for semi-steel, full-steel, and non-road tires since 2009 and is the first Chinese tire company to establish overseas production bases [3][19]. - The company currently operates four domestic production bases and two overseas bases, with plans for further expansion to enhance its global footprint [3][19]. 2. Long-term Demand Support and Rise of Chinese Tires - The global tire market exceeds 180 billion USD, with over 70% of sales coming from the replacement market, indicating a relatively inelastic demand supported by increasing vehicle ownership [4][30]. - The exit of outdated production capacities is improving the supply landscape, allowing Chinese tire manufacturers to leverage their cost advantages [4][30]. 3. Advantages of Globalization and Overseas Bases - The company has strategically located its overseas bases in regions with favorable tax rates and minimal anti-dumping duties, enhancing its risk resilience and profitability [5][30]. - The overseas production facilities are expected to significantly contribute to the company's earnings, with a higher profit margin compared to domestic operations [31]. 4. Integrated R&D and Brand Development - The company emphasizes R&D investment and has established partnerships with research institutions to create technological barriers, exemplified by the innovative "Liquid Gold" tire [6][30]. - The successful development of large tires has broken overseas monopolies, further enhancing the company's product structure and profitability [6][30]. 5. Profit Forecast, Valuation, and Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 32.2 billion CNY, 36.3 billion CNY, and 42.9 billion CNY for 2024-2026, with corresponding net profits of 4.3 billion CNY, 5.1 billion CNY, and 6.2 billion CNY, reflecting strong growth rates [7][14]. - The report anticipates a three-year CAGR of 26% for EPS, driven by the company's global expansion and product optimization [7][14].

Group 1 - The penetration rate of AI in A-shares is still low, with TMT and large-cap companies leading the way [77][93][84] - The overall penetration rate of companies mentioning AI is less than 20%, with the highest rates in the TMT sector [93][124] - The number of companies mentioning AI has increased significantly from 172 in 2020 to over 1200 in 2023, but the growth rate remains slow [94][93] Group 2 - Most industries are in the application stage, with significant representation in beauty care, retail, and computing, while sectors like non-ferrous metals and social services are still in early layout and R&D stages [3][42][43] - Companies in the application layer focus on improving quality and efficiency, while those in the basic layer emphasize demand generation [46][49] - The expected effects of AI vary by industry, with cost reduction being a priority for sectors like textiles and light industry, while quality improvement is emphasized in sectors like machinery and home appliances [46][49] Group 3 - The majority of companies adopt a self-research approach to AI, with nearly 70% of companies engaging in self-research, while about 21% collaborate [23][24] - Over 75% of companies have released or promoted AI products, while nearly 25% are still in the R&D or testing phases [23][24] - The output effects of AI are primarily focused on quality improvement and efficiency enhancement, with only about 8% of companies reporting significant revenue growth [23][24] Group 4 - Future development directions for companies include expanding application scenarios, conducting technical research, and product development, with about 25% of companies focusing on these areas [23][35] - Companies in the basic layer are more inclined towards self-research, while those in the technical and application layers show a higher tendency for collaboration [24][37] - The capital expenditure of domestic AI leaders is significantly lower compared to their counterparts in the US and Hong Kong [28][40]

证券研究报告 投 2024年06月07日 资 策 略 国联研究本周报告精选 作者 │ 分析师：包承超 定 期 执业证书编号：S0590523100005 策 邮箱：baochch@glsc.com.cn 略 分析师：张晓春 本周重点报告快览： 执业证书编号：S0590513090003 邮箱：zhangxc@glsc.com.cn ➢ 总量研究 1、 2024年一季报：跨国巨头眼中的中国 联系人：付祺泰 邮箱：fuqt@glsc.com.cn 2、 产业面面观第22期：本轮涨价，哪些细节值得关注？ 3、 策略专题：Q2景气或持续回升，核心资产或逐步回归 4、 美国经济韧性和再通胀研究（三）：需求温和降温或有助于通胀回落 5、 对5月PMI和高频数据的思考及未来经济展望：工业产出或好于PMI读数 6、 永赢中证沪深港黄金产业股票ETF投资价值分析：放大黄金上行弹性 7、 量化可转债研究（二）：随机森林模型在可转债中的应用 8、 固定收益专题：特别国债定价发行与一般国债有何差异？ 9、 固定收益专题：公共事业涨价对物价影响几何？ ➢ 行业深度 1、 医药生物行业专题：家用呼吸机：海外去库存有望迎来拐点 2、 社会 ...

证券研究报告 行 2024年06月10日 业 报 投资建议： 强于大市（维持） 告 通信 上次建议： 强于大市 │ 行 业 相对大盘走势 英伟达 GPU 加速迭代，聚焦 AI 光通信核心标的 专 通信 沪深300 题 20% 研  英伟达GPU加速迭代，持续保持领先优势 究 3% 在2024年以前，英伟达平均2年推出新一代GPU架构，目前Blackwell芯 片已经投产，并预计于2025年推出Blackwell Ultra AI芯片，2026年推 -13% 出下一代 AI 平台“Rubin”，2027 年推出 Rubin Ultra，更新节奏将变为 “一年一次”。通过加快产品迭代，英伟达保持产品性能优势，且生成单个 -30% 2023/6 2023/10 2024/2 2024/6 Token功耗大幅降低。在各大GPU厂商新推出的产品中，英伟达Blackwell 在性能上高于AMD的Instinct MI325X和谷歌的Trillium芯片。 作者  英伟达发力AI以太网，超大规模组网趋势明确 分析师：张宁 英伟达表达了发力 AI 以太网的决心，其全球首个专为 AI 设计的高性能以 执业证书编号：S059 ...

证券研究报告 国内热管理系统领域新星 前瞻布局新兴领域静待蓝海市场 风险提示：原材料价格波动风险；新兴领域市场开拓不及预期；行业空间测算 偏差风险。 作者 公司报告│非金融-公司深度研究 不同于市场的观点/创新之处 2）储能领域：随着新型储能装机量逐年提升，带动公司更多的下游优质客户开拓储 能业务，使得公司储能领域毛利率得以维持，假设储能领域毛利率分别为 21%/23%/23%。 中长期公司增长点主要源自风电出海及"以大代小"替换需求和氢/储热管理行业的 持续开拓；数据液冷领域若能实现首台套交付，长期看有望成为增长的强劲助力。 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-------|------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------| | | | | | | | | | | | 1. | | 国内热管理系统领域新星 ............................................ 4 | | | | 1.1 | 紧跟趋势完善业务布局 ....... ...

Key Points General Information - **Purpose of the Call**: The call is exclusively for clients on the white list of Guolian Securities Research Institute. It does not constitute investment advice and participants should make their own investment decisions and bear their own risks. Guolian Securities assumes no responsibility for any losses incurred by participants due to the use of the call content [1]. Industry and Company Specifics - **Industry**: The specific industry or company involved is not mentioned in the provided content. - **Core Views and Arguments**: No core views or arguments are presented in the provided content. - **Other Important Content**: No other important content is provided in the given content.