证券研究报告 行 2024年06月09日 业 报 投资建议： 强于大市（维持） 告 电力设备 上次建议： 强于大市 │ 行 业 相对大盘走势 当前如何看待核电设备投资机会？ 专 电力设备 沪深300 题 10% 研 当前世界多国均大力发展核电，核电作为唯一同时具备基荷电源和清洁能 究 -7% 源属性的发电方式，发电量同比稳定增长。经过 2020-2023 年核电机组开 工提速后，我们认为2024年核电设备商有望迎来业绩高兑现。 -23%  美欧重启核电、装机节奏加速 -40% 2023/6 2023/10 2024/2 2024/6 目前世界各国纷纷重启核电，2024年3月美国能源部宣布将为密歇根核电 站提供15.2亿美元贷款担保，作为该核电站重启资金；2023年12月COP28 作者 上22个国家达成《三倍核能宣言》，到2050年核电装机需实现3倍增长； 分析师：贺朝晖 2023 年 4 月日本加入核燃料战略联盟，计划于 2024 年重启岛根核电站 2 执业证书编号：S0590521100002 号机组、女川核电站2号机组、柏崎刈羽核电站7号机组。 邮箱：hezh@glsc.com.cn  国内核电开工 ...

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the market index [7]. Core Insights - The company plans to raise up to 1.88 billion yuan through convertible bonds, with significant investments allocated to expanding production capacity for high-speed optical modules in Chengdu and Thailand, expected to add annual production of 1.85 million and 1.1 million units respectively over a three-year construction period [1]. - The demand for Ethernet optical modules is projected to grow significantly, with annual sales expected to increase from 3.67 billion USD in 2023 to 8.7 billion USD by 2028, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.9% [3]. - The company has already launched 800G and 1.6T optical module products, and the new investment projects will enhance its product matrix, including silicon photonic modules and coherent optical modules [4]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for the company from 2024 to 2026 are 5.868 billion yuan, 8.203 billion yuan, and 11.468 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 89.44%, 39.79%, and 39.81% respectively [5]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 1.427 billion yuan, 1.970 billion yuan, and 2.612 billion yuan for the same period, with growth rates of 107.30%, 38.06%, and 32.57% respectively [5]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 2.01 yuan, 2.78 yuan, and 3.68 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, indicating a three-year CAGR of 55.97% [5]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is enhancing its production capabilities to meet the growing market demand for high-speed optical modules, which is driven by advancements in AI technology and networking equipment [1][2]. - The expansion into Thailand is expected to improve the company's overseas production capacity and responsiveness, thereby optimizing product supply and strengthening its market share internationally [3].

证券研究报告 行 2024年06月09日 业 报 投资建议： 强于大市（维持） 告 农林牧渔 │ 上次建议： 强于大市 行 业 相对大盘走势 如何看待本轮猪周期变化？ 专 农林牧渔 沪深300 题 10% 研 ➢ 供求关系下的猪周期 究 0% 生猪价格遵循最基本的供需理论，由于猪肉需求年度之间相对稳定，供应 弹性大于需求弹性，形成以供给侧主导的周期性变化。产能变化跟随猪价 -10% 同步变化。由于散户的养殖投入规模小，进出市场相对容易，养殖利润波 -20% 动下散户容易追涨杀跌，加剧了行业产能的增减，而生猪产能变动（母猪 2023/6 2023/10 2024/2 2024/6 存栏）到产能兑现（商品猪出栏）存在滞后性，形成供需错配的循环。 作者 ➢ 历史的猪周期回溯表现 分析师：王明琦 生猪养殖行业存在明显的周期性现象，一般 3-4 年为一次完整的猪周期。 执业证书编号：S0590524040003 2006 年以来共经历的 4 轮完整的猪周期，疫情和政策是历史猪周期的主 邮箱：wmq@glsc.com.cn 要影响因素。例如，2006 年蓝耳病，2014 年环保政策拆迁，2018 年的非 洲猪瘟。持续时间 ...

Market Penetration - AI penetration in A-shares remains low, with less than 20% of companies mentioning AI in their 2023 annual reports[51] - TMT sector shows the highest penetration, with over 70% of companies in the computer industry involved in AI[51] - More than half of the primary industries have an AI penetration rate below 10%, with sectors like food and beverage, agriculture, and coal having minimal involvement[51] Investment and Development - Companies primarily adopt self-research strategies, especially in the foundational layer, while consumer-oriented firms tend to collaborate[40] - The number of companies mentioning AI has increased significantly from 172 in 2020 to over 1,200 in 2023[51] - Future investment focus areas include application scenario expansion, technology research, and product development[40] Output Effectiveness - Most industries are in the output phase, focusing on quality improvement and efficiency enhancement, with revenue growth still in early stages[5] - Companies that emphasize cost reduction have seen a notable increase in gross margins, while revenue expansion remains less pronounced[5] - The expected effects of AI vary by company stage, with a decrease in efficiency improvement expectations but an increase in quality and profit growth expectations[5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the industry, indicating an expectation of performance exceeding the market by over 20% [6]. Core Insights - The report highlights the launch of Tongwei's global innovation R&D center, with the first HJT+THL battery expected to be produced by June 2024, marking a significant advancement in production capabilities [2]. - Tongwei's new HJT technology, combined with proprietary electroplating steel, has achieved a record output power of 765W and a conversion efficiency of 24.63%, showcasing the potential for further efficiency improvements in the industry [3]. - The introduction of 1GW production capacity equipment is anticipated to significantly reduce production costs for battery manufacturers, addressing previous capital expenditure pressures associated with lower capacity equipment [4]. - The report suggests that the declining costs and increasing efficiency of HJT technology could bolster industry confidence in expansion, especially as the profitability of the solar supply chain has been under pressure [5]. Summary by Sections Industry Events - Tongwei's R&D center project commenced on November 30, 2023, with the first production line expected to validate mass production standards by September 2024 [2]. Technology Advancements - The HJT technology has overcome key production challenges, and the new production line is set to enhance efficiency and output [3]. Cost Reduction - The shift to 1GW production lines is projected to lower operational costs significantly, making investments more attractive for manufacturers [4]. Market Outlook - The report emphasizes the potential for HJT technology to lead the next phase of production expansion, particularly as the industry navigates current profitability challenges [5].

证券研究报告 公 2024年06月07日 司 报 告 长安汽车(000625) │ 行 业： 汽车/乘用车 公 投资评级： 司 当前价格： 13.19元 点 新能源及海外销量持续高增，全球化进程加速 目标价格： 评 研 事件： 究 基本数据 6月6日，公司发布5月产销快报：长安汽车2024年5月批发销量20.68 总股本/流通股本(百万股) 9,917.29/9,854.23 万辆，同比增长3.29 %。 流通A股市值(百万元) 108,342.72 ➢ 5月销量同比稳定增长，环比基本持平 公司5月实现批发销量20.68万辆，同比增长3.29%，环比下滑 1.6%，1- 每股净资产(元) 7.38 5月共实现批发销量110.90万辆，同比增长12.03%；其中自主品牌5月销 资产负债率(%) 60.24 量17.10万辆，同比增长4.70%，环比下滑1.0%，1-5月共实现销量93.24 一年内最高/最低(元) 21.48/11.41 万辆，同比增长11.64%；自主品牌乘用车5月销量12.32万辆，同比增长 1.29%，环比增长0.1%，1-5月共实现销量68.36万辆，同比增长8.53%。 股价相对走势 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) with a target price of 55.48 CNY, based on the current price of 44.14 CNY [2]. Core Insights - The company has launched two groundbreaking products: the universal control system UCS and the AI temporal model TPT, marking a significant step towards industrial AI development [3][4]. - The UCS product, named Nyx, utilizes a cloud-native architecture that drastically reduces costs, with a 90% reduction in cabinet space, 80% decrease in cable costs, and a 50% shorter construction period [4]. - The TPT model addresses key industrial challenges such as anomaly warning and operational optimization, transitioning from multiple models to a single model supporting various applications [5]. - The company is building a core competitive advantage in "AI + data," aiming to enhance production efficiency and reduce costs across various industrial processes [6]. Financial Forecasts and Valuation - Projected revenues for 2024-2026 are 10.661 billion CNY, 13.077 billion CNY, and 15.836 billion CNY, with year-on-year growth rates of 23.68%, 22.66%, and 21.11% respectively [7]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 1.252 billion CNY, 1.545 billion CNY, and 1.973 billion CNY for the same period, with growth rates of 13.64%, 23.39%, and 27.68% respectively [7]. - The company is valued at a 35x PE ratio for 2024, leading to a target price of 55.48 CNY, reflecting its leadership position in the domestic process automation sector and its transition towards an industrial AI company [7].

Investment Rating - The investment recommendation for the industry is "Outperform the Market" [7] Core Viewpoints - The integration of vehicle-road-cloud infrastructure is set to commence, with significant investments announced, such as the 9.939 billion yuan project in Beijing [2] - The vehicle-road-cloud integration aims to overcome the limitations of single-vehicle intelligence in autonomous driving by enhancing environmental perception, decision-making, and control execution [3] - Government policies are facilitating the rapid development of the vehicle-road-cloud integration industry, with various regulations and standards being established [4] - The industry chain for vehicle-road-cloud integration is becoming increasingly comprehensive, covering key components such as roadside units (RSU), onboard units (OBU), and high-precision maps [5] - The market potential for vehicle-road collaboration is substantial, with projections indicating a market size of 496 billion yuan by 2030 and a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 26.64% from 2021 to 2030 [6] Summary by Sections Industry Events - On May 31, 2024, a tender announcement for the vehicle-road-cloud integration project in Beijing was released, with an investment of 9.939 billion yuan [2] Technological Advancements - The vehicle-road-cloud integration is expected to enhance the capabilities of autonomous vehicles, providing safer and more efficient driving experiences [3] Policy Support - Recent government initiatives have opened pathways for advanced autonomous vehicles to enter trials and public roads, promoting the development of vehicle-road-cloud integration applications [4] Industry Chain Development - The industry chain includes critical components such as RSU, OBU, and high-precision maps, with various service providers offering complete solutions for different application scenarios [5] Market Potential - The vehicle-road collaboration market is projected to reach 496 billion yuan by 2030, with significant investments anticipated in the coming years [6] Investment Suggestions - The report suggests focusing on segments related to RSU, OBU, lidar, video surveillance, high-precision maps, and cloud platforms, as these areas are expected to benefit from the industry's growth [7]

证券研究报告 行 2024年06月06日 业 报 告 前瞻研究 │ 行 业 相对大盘走势 碳减排：欧盟碳边境调节机制（CBAM） 专 题 研 究  碳减排是达成国际气候行动目标的关键行动方向。二氧化碳是全球变 暖的主要驱动因素，其排放量远超其他温室气体，对长期气候变化的 影响尤为显著。如今全球减排控温效果不达预期，二氧化碳浓度仍然 在不断攀升，长期累积效应将对全球气候系统和生态环境造成深远影 响。因此，控制碳排放是改善全球变暖的重要举措之一。 作者  欧盟密切关注碳排放状况。欧盟为实现到2030年将温室气体排放至少 分析师：郭荆璞 减少55%的目标，2021年7月欧盟委员会提出了“适应55计划”，是 执业证书编号：S0590523070003 碳边境调节机制作为计划的重要组成部分，在确保欧盟在实现气候目 邮箱：jpguo@glsc.com.cn 标的同时，避免因碳泄漏而削弱竞争力，并激励其他国家采取类似的 碳减排措施。通过碳边境调节机制，欧盟不仅强化了自身的气候政策， 也向全球传递了应对气候变化的强烈信号。  欧美国家通过政策手段推出碳关税。各国制定了碳关税相关政策法案 来防止贸易中“碳泄漏”的出现。欧 ...

证券研究报告 行 2024年06月06日 业 报 投资建议： 强于大市（维持） 告 石油石化 上次建议： 强于大市 │ 行 业 相对大盘走势 油市或在 OPEC 延期减产后维持供需趋紧 点 石油石化 沪深300 评 20% 研 ➢ 行业事件： 究 7% 2024 年 6 月 2 日欧佩克部长级会议上，欧佩克+成员国达成协议，将延长 自愿减产政策至 2025年底，自2024年9月起逐渐取消自愿额外减产。具 -7% 体协议内容包括：将原定于 2024年6月末到期的接近220万桶/日额外减 -20% 产延长至 2024年9月末，2024 年10月至2025年9月成员国可以根据市 2023/6 2023/10 2024/2 2024/6 场情况逐步恢复额外减产量；将原定于 2024年底到期的接近 166万桶/日 的自愿减产延长至2025年底。 作者 ➢ 短期油价见顶回落 分析师：郭荆璞 随着地缘政治溢价逐渐消退，短期油价走势见顶回落：WTI和布伦特油价在 执业证书编号：S0590523070003 2024年4月分别触及86.91美元/桶和91.17美元/桶，而在5月末分别回 邮箱：jpguo@glsc.com.cn ...