证券研究报告 非金融公司|公司点评|洛阳钼业（603993） 世界级铜矿保持高产，积极筹划新一轮 发展 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2024年10月29日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 2024Q1-Q3 公司实现营业收入 1547.55 亿元，同比增长 17.52%；归母净利润 82.73 亿元，同 比增长 238.62%；扣非归母净利润 85.52 亿元，同比增长 530.97%。2024Q1-Q3 公司铜/钴金属 实现产量 47.60/8.47 万吨，同比增长 78.2%/127.4%。我们预计公司 2024-2026 年实现归母净 利润分别为 116.94/133.76/157.32 亿元，分别同比增长 41.75%/14.39%/17.61%；EPS 分别为 0.54/0.62/0.73 元，当前股价对应 PE 分别为 14.6/12.8/10.9 倍。公司未来矿铜产量增长显 著，业绩有望彰显高弹性，维持"买入"评级。 |分析师及联系人 丁士涛 刘依然 SAC：S0590523090001 SAC：S0590523110010 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 5 非金 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company is in a transformation phase, focusing on strengthening its internal capabilities and is optimistic about the upcoming Double 11 sales performance [8] - The cosmetics segment is under pressure during the off-season, while the pharmaceutical segment has stabilized in Q3 [7] - The company has made significant progress in product innovation and brand development, particularly in the cosmetics sector [8] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company's total revenue was 2.803 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.4%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 171 million yuan, down 28.1% [6] - In Q3 2024, revenue was 877 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.8%, and net profit attributable to shareholders was 44 million yuan, down 7.8% [6] - The cosmetics segment generated revenue of 1.708 billion yuan, up 3.25% year-on-year, while the pharmaceutical segment's revenue was 370 million yuan, down 7.42% year-on-year [7] Business Segment Analysis - The cosmetics segment showed resilience with brands like Yilian and Aier Bozhu achieving year-on-year revenue growth of 7.57% and 1.80% respectively [7] - The pharmaceutical segment's sales stabilized with an 18.96% year-on-year increase in Q3 [7] - The raw materials and additives segment reported revenue of 249 million yuan, down 1.96% year-on-year [7] Strategic Initiatives - The company is enhancing its raw material reserves and has completed the registration of new cosmetic ingredients using synthetic biology [8] - Innovative marketing strategies, such as collaborations for product launches, have led to significant sales growth in various product lines [8] - The company is expanding into collagen and hair care markets, with new product launches receiving positive market feedback [8] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 4.008 billion yuan, 4.590 billion yuan, and 5.170 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of -12.5%, 14.5%, and 12.6% [8] - Net profit projections for the same period are 271 million yuan, 321 million yuan, and 370 million yuan, with growth rates of -10.6%, 18.2%, and 15.5% respectively [8] - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 0.27 yuan, 0.32 yuan, and 0.36 yuan for 2024-2026 [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" [4][6]. Core Views - The report indicates that while the company's third-quarter operations faced short-term pressure, improvements are expected due to significant policy boosts to terminal demand, healthy inventory levels, and a recovery in industry average prices. Revenue growth and profit improvement are anticipated in the future [2][6]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 7.396 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 6.78%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.202 billion, down 12.44% year-on-year. In Q3 alone, revenue was 2.666 billion, a decline of 11.07% year-on-year, with net profit at 443 million, down 18.49% year-on-year [6][7]. - The company’s gross margin improved by 1.0 percentage point in Q3, attributed to a decrease in low-margin projects and a slight increase in average prices. However, the increase in expense ratios and bad debt provisions negatively impacted profitability, leading to a net profit margin decline of 1.5 percentage points year-on-year [6][9]. Future Earnings Projections - The company is expected to see revenue growth of 1%, 12%, and 8% for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively. The corresponding valuations are projected at 13X, 12X, and 11X [2][6]. Market Trends - Since September, retail in the industry has shown significant improvement, with a notable increase in sales for traditional kitchen appliances like range hoods and gas stoves, which saw year-on-year growth rates of 43% and 37% respectively. This trend is expected to continue into Q4, leading to improved revenue for the company [6][9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Sinopec (600028) is "Buy" (maintained) [3]. Core Views - Sinopec reported a revenue of 2366.54 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a decrease of 4.19% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 44.25 billion yuan, down 16.46% year-on-year [2][6]. - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 790.41 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.80%, while the net profit was 8.54 billion yuan, down 52.15% year-on-year [2][6]. - The chemical products demand is at a low point, and inventory losses have put short-term pressure on the company's performance [6]. - The refined oil segment remains stable, with a total apparent consumption of refined oil at 291 million tons for the first three quarters, an increase of 0.96% year-on-year [6]. - Oil and gas production is stable, with a slight increase in output, supported by high capital expenditure in exploration and development [6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, Sinopec's revenue was 2366.54 billion yuan, down 4.19% year-on-year, and the net profit was 44.25 billion yuan, down 16.46% year-on-year [2][6]. - Q3 2024 revenue was 790.41 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.80% year-on-year, while net profit was 8.54 billion yuan, down 52.15% year-on-year [2][6]. Chemical Products and Oil Segment - The average price difference between polyethylene and crude oil was 3211 yuan/ton, an increase of 16.10% year-on-year [6]. - The apparent consumption of refined oil for the first three quarters was 291 million tons, an increase of 0.96% year-on-year [6]. Production and Capital Expenditure - The company’s capital expenditure for exploration and development was 50.765 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.11% year-on-year [6]. - Crude oil production was 211 million barrels, an increase of 0.3% year-on-year, while natural gas production was 1.05 trillion cubic feet, up 5.6% year-on-year [6]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 is 58 billion yuan, 70.3 billion yuan, and 75.3 billion yuan, respectively [6]. - The corresponding EPS for these years is expected to be 0.48 yuan, 0.58 yuan, and 0.62 yuan, with PE ratios of 13.5X, 11.2X, and 10.4X [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy (Maintain)" [4] Core Views - The company's Q3 revenue reached 7.74 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 20%. However, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 760 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 31% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 25%. The company maintains stable profitability [2][6] - The company announced a mid-term dividend plan, proposing a cash dividend of 0.5 yuan per share, totaling 1.107 billion yuan, which corresponds to a dividend payout ratio of 45.5%. This marks the first mid-term dividend in nearly 20 years, reflecting the company's commitment to enhancing shareholder returns [6][7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first three quarters, the company achieved a revenue of 24.07 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27%, and a net profit of 2.43 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 131.5%. Q3 sales volume of large and medium buses was 9,344 units, a year-on-year decrease of 4.8% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 17.8% [6][7] - The Q3 single vehicle revenue was 717,000 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14,000 yuan, while the single vehicle net profit was 70,000 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18,000 yuan [6][7] Market Outlook - The bidding data for buses has been increasing, with over 8,800 units bid in August and September combined. The company expects a significant increase in domestic demand in Q4, supported by policy incentives and the peak season for exports [7] - The company forecasts revenues of 34.36 billion yuan, 40.93 billion yuan, and 44.64 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 27.1%, 19.1%, and 9.1% [7][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "stronger than market" rating for the light industry sector [4][8][31] Core Insights - The light industry public fund heavy holding ratio is 0.82%, down 0.01 percentage points from the previous quarter, which is at the 47% percentile level since 2010 [5][12][30] - In Q3 2024, the heavy holding ratio for the paper sector increased by 0.03 percentage points, while the home furnishing and packaging printing sectors saw a decrease [6][15][19] - The report anticipates a recovery in the home furnishing sector due to supportive real estate policies and trade-in incentives, which are expected to boost consumer demand [19][31][32] Summary by Sections Fund Holdings - The heavy holding ratio for the light industry sector is 0.82%, with a decrease of 0.01 percentage points, ranking 22nd in fund allocation among sectors [5][12] - The light industry manufacturing index saw a cumulative change of +15.48% in Q3 2024, with relative performance against the CSI 300 index showing a loss of 0.59 percentage points [5][12] Sector Performance - The heavy holding ratios for light industry sub-sectors in Q3 2024 are as follows: home furnishing (0.38%), entertainment products (0.27%), paper (0.25%), and packaging printing (0.05%) [6][15] - The report highlights that the paper sector's heavy holding ratio increased, while home furnishing and packaging printing saw reductions [6][15][19] Northbound Capital Movements - Northbound capital has reduced holdings in companies like Sophia (-5.32 percentage points) and Gujia Home (-2.72 percentage points), while increasing in others like Mingyue Mirror (+0.59 percentage points) and Aorijun (+0.58 percentage points) [7][26] Future Outlook - The report projects that the home furnishing sector will benefit from recent real estate policy measures and trade-in incentives, leading to a potential recovery in domestic sales growth [19][31] - For the paper industry, the report suggests that recent economic policies may improve downstream demand, which could enhance financial performance in Q4 2024 [32] - The packaging printing sector is expected to see a recovery in profitability due to improved order conditions and cost reductions [32]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the home appliance industry, specifically highlighting Xiaomi's strong performance in the white goods sector [5]. Core Insights - Xiaomi has rapidly risen in the home appliance market, with significant online retail share increases in air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines, achieving 11.9%, 4.4%, and 4.0% in retail value shares respectively by September 2024 [12][13]. - The report attributes Xiaomi's success to both external factors, such as market "downgrading" and a lack of aggressive pricing from leading brands, and internal factors, including Xiaomi's focus on high cost-performance products and increased emphasis on its white goods business [6][15]. Summary by Sections 1. Continuous Breakthrough of Xiaomi White Goods - Xiaomi's online retail share for air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines has shown significant growth, with retail volume shares at 14.3%, 6.9%, and 4.7% respectively [12][13]. - The revenue for Xiaomi's white goods is projected to exceed 15 billion in 2024, positioning it as the fifth largest player in the industry [12][14]. 2. Consumer Trends and Industry Competition - The report identifies a clear trend of "downgrading" in consumer preferences, primarily reflected in pricing rather than product structure, with a notable increase in lower-priced products [15][19]. - Leading brands have focused on profitability, widening the price gap between first and second-tier brands, which has allowed Xiaomi to capitalize on this market dynamic [6][19]. 3. Extreme Cost-Performance and "Hit Product" Strategy - Xiaomi's strategy of offering extreme cost-performance products has been pivotal in gaining market share, with its air conditioners priced significantly lower than leading brands [7][8]. - The "hit product" strategy has been effective, with a single model contributing over 40% of Xiaomi's air conditioner sales, showcasing the impact of scale effects [8][22]. 4. Maintaining "Outperform" Rating - The report anticipates a rebound in domestic appliance sales driven by policies encouraging upgrades, with Xiaomi positioned to benefit from its pricing and channel advantages [5][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market" for the textile and apparel sector [4][24]. Core Viewpoints - The textile and apparel sector is experiencing a general improvement in consumer spending, supported by policy stimuli that boost terminal consumption recovery. The manufacturing sector remains optimistic, with continued industry prosperity anticipated [2][24]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The textile and apparel index increased by 10% during Q3 2024, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.8 percentage points and the CSI 300 Index by 6.4 percentage points. The sector ranked 26th among 30 industries in terms of cumulative returns [8][24]. 2. Fund Holdings - As of the end of Q3 2024, the public fund holding ratio for the textile and apparel sector was 0.47%, a slight decrease of 0.03 percentage points from the previous quarter. This ratio remains at the 83rd percentile since 2019, indicating a continued decline in allocation but at a reduced rate [2][8][24]. 3. Major Holdings - The top ten holdings in the textile and apparel sector include Huayi Group, Weixing Co., and Anta Sports. Notably, Huayi Group saw an increase in its position, while brands like Semir and 361 Degrees received new attention from institutional investors [11][24]. 4. Northbound Capital - Northbound capital has significantly increased its holdings in companies such as Weixing Co. and Huafu Fashion. The report highlights a notable increase in holdings for companies like Jihua Group and Hongdou Co. [19][24]. 5. Southbound Capital - Southbound capital has increased its positions in sports brands, with companies like Li Ning and 361 Degrees seeing substantial increases in shareholding. The demand for sports apparel is expected to maintain stable growth due to rising health awareness among consumers [21][24]. 6. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the demand for sports apparel will continue to grow steadily, making it a resilient segment. While revenue growth for textile manufacturing may slow down in Q4 2023, the sector is expected to maintain good capacity utilization and order volumes, benefiting from economies of scale [24].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company reported a slight decrease in revenue for the first three quarters of 2024, with a total revenue of 3.946 billion yuan, down 0.17% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 576 million yuan. In Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1.328 billion yuan, an increase of 2.23% year-on-year, and a net profit of 226 million yuan, up 32.90% year-on-year [2][6] - The company experienced growth in its chicken essence and soy sauce products, with significant regional variations in performance. In Q3 2024, soy sauce, chicken essence, cooking oil, and other products generated revenues of 741 million, 181 million, 130 million, and 147 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year changes of 0.47%, 13.99%, -9.16%, and -9.05% [6] - The company's gross profit margin improved by 4.96 percentage points year-on-year to 38.82% in Q3 2024, attributed to cost benefits, declining material prices, and the effectiveness of supply chain reforms. The sales expense ratio decreased by 1.86 percentage points to 6.26%, while the net profit margin increased by 4.90 percentage points to 18.94% [6] - The company forecasts revenue for 2024-2026 to be 5.453 billion, 5.894 billion, and 6.535 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 6.11%, 8.08%, and 10.87%, respectively. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 707 million, 873 million, and 988 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of -58.34%, 23.47%, and 13.14% [6][7] Summary by Sections Financial Data and Valuation - For 2024E, the company is projected to have a revenue of 5.453 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 6.11%. The net profit is expected to be 707 million yuan, reflecting a significant decline of 58.34% year-on-year. The EPS is projected to be 0.90 yuan per share [7] - The company’s P/E ratio for 2024E is estimated at 26.0, while the P/B ratio is 3.5 [7] Revenue Breakdown - In Q3 2024, the revenue from different products showed varied performance, with soy sauce and chicken essence performing well, while cooking oil and other products saw declines [6] - The company’s distribution channels also exhibited differences, with distribution sales declining by 0.90% year-on-year, while direct sales increased by 22.60% [6] Regional Performance - The company added a total of 84 distributors across different regions, with the eastern region showing the best performance, generating 2.94 billion yuan in revenue, an increase of 8.57% year-on-year [6]

证券研究报告 非金融公司|公司点评|海康威视（002415） 第三季度业绩承压，财政政策支持下有 望逐步改善 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2024年10月29日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 海康威视发布 2024 年第三季度报告，2024 年前三季度公司实现营收 649.91 亿元，同比增长 6.06%；归母净利润 81.08 亿元，同比下降 8.40%。国内需求承压，海外市场平稳，业绩短期 承压。鉴于公司是全球安防领域龙头，财政政策支持下业务有望逐步改善，维持"买入"评 级。 |分析师及联系人 黄楷 SAC：S0590522090001 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 5 非金融公司|公司点评 glzqdatemark2 2024年10月29日 海康威视(002415) 第三季度业绩承压，财政政策支持下有望逐 步改善 | --- | --- | |----------------------------|-------------------| | | | | 行 业： | 计算机/计算机设备 | | 投资评级： | 买入（维持） | | 当前价格： | 30.95 元 | ...